Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models
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This study examines US productivity growth through the lens of R&D-based growth models. A general R&D-based model, nesting different model varieties, is developed. These varieties are tested using a novel cointegrating relationship and US data for the period 1953–2018. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and support for other varieties including the semi-endogenous variety. Further, the results are systematically consistent with the presence of fishing-out effects in knowledge production, implying that productivity-enhancing innovations become increasingly harder to achieve as technologies become more advanced. Forecasts suggest that the US productivity growth slowdown continues over the coming decades.
| Originalsprog | Engelsk |
|---|---|
| Tidsskrift | Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics |
| Vol/bind | 85 |
| Udgave nummer | 5 |
| Sider (fra-til) | 1083-1110 |
| ISSN | 0305-9049 |
| DOI | |
| Status | Udgivet - 2023 |
Bibliografisk note
Funding Information:
I would like to thank Christian Groth, John Hassler, Charles I. Jones, Peter Birch Sørensen, Søren Johansen, Katarina Juselius, Heino Bohn Nielsen, Thor Nielsen, Pietro Peretto, Sjak Smulders, Asger Wingender, Jonathan Temple and two anonymous referees for useful comments, suggestions, and discussions. Additionally, I would like to thank seminar participants at the University of Copenhagen, Tilburg University, the QED Jamboree 2016, and the Nordic Summer Symposium in Macroeconomics 2016 for their valuable comments. I would also like to thank Mitra Toossi from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics for providing US labour force projection data. Finally, I would like to thank Mark Boroush from the National Science Foundation for providing insights and data on US R&D expenditures. The present article is a revised version of Kruse‐Andersen ( 2017 ) and Kruse‐Andersen ( 2018 , ch. 1).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics published by Oxford University and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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