TY - JOUR

T1 - Testing R&D-Based Endogenous Growth Models

AU - Kruse-Andersen, Peter K.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics published by Oxford University and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - This study examines US productivity growth through the lens of R&D-based growth models. A general R&D-based model, nesting different model varieties, is developed. These varieties are tested using a novel cointegrating relationship and US data for the period 1953–2018. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and support for other varieties including the semi-endogenous variety. Further, the results are systematically consistent with the presence of fishing-out effects in knowledge production, implying that productivity-enhancing innovations become increasingly harder to achieve as technologies become more advanced. Forecasts suggest that the US productivity growth slowdown continues over the coming decades.

AB - This study examines US productivity growth through the lens of R&D-based growth models. A general R&D-based model, nesting different model varieties, is developed. These varieties are tested using a novel cointegrating relationship and US data for the period 1953–2018. The results provide evidence against the widely used fully endogenous variety and support for other varieties including the semi-endogenous variety. Further, the results are systematically consistent with the presence of fishing-out effects in knowledge production, implying that productivity-enhancing innovations become increasingly harder to achieve as technologies become more advanced. Forecasts suggest that the US productivity growth slowdown continues over the coming decades.

U2 - 10.1111/obes.12552

DO - 10.1111/obes.12552

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85151989333

VL - 85

SP - 1083

EP - 1110

JO - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

JF - Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

SN - 0305-9049

IS - 5

ER -