TY - JOUR

T1 - Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis

T2 - A multivariate approach

AU - Kaufmann, Robert K.

AU - Juselius, Katarina

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: Internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias.

AB - We test competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis by estimating the coefficients and diagnostic statistics for a cointegrated vector autoregressive model that includes 10 climate variables and four exogenous variables for solar insolation. The estimates are consistent with the physical mechanisms postulated to drive glacial cycles. They show that the climate variables are driven partly by solar insolation, determining the timing and magnitude of glaciations and terminations, and partly by internal feedback dynamics, pushing the climate variables away from equilibrium. We argue that the latter is consistent with a weak form of the Milankovitch hypothesis and that it should be restated as follows: Internal climate dynamics impose perturbations on glacial cycles that are driven by solar insolation. Our results show that these perturbations are likely caused by slow adjustment between land ice volume and solar insolation. The estimated adjustment dynamics show that solar insolation affects an array of climate variables other than ice volume, each at a unique rate. This implies that previous efforts to test the strong form of the Milankovitch hypothesis by examining the relationship between solar insolation and a single climate variable are likely to suffer from omitted variable bias.

KW - climate dynamics

KW - Milankovitch theory

KW - solar insolation

U2 - 10.1002/2014PA002767

DO - 10.1002/2014PA002767

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:84975736046

VL - 31

SP - 286

EP - 297

JO - Paleoceanography

JF - Paleoceanography

SN - 0883-8305

IS - 2

ER -