Predicting Lotto Numbers

Publikation: Working paperForskning

Standard

Predicting Lotto Numbers. / Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid ; Tyran, Jean-Robert.

Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, 2011.

Publikation: Working paperForskning

Harvard

Jørgensen, CB, Suetens, S & Tyran, J-R 2011 'Predicting Lotto Numbers' Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen.

APA

Jørgensen, C. B., Suetens, S., & Tyran, J-R. (2011). Predicting Lotto Numbers. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen.

Vancouver

Jørgensen CB, Suetens S, Tyran J-R. Predicting Lotto Numbers. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen. 2011.

Author

Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn ; Suetens, Sigrid ; Tyran, Jean-Robert. / Predicting Lotto Numbers. Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, 2011.

Bibtex

@techreport{11765584e4e848d983d790caa1e27ea2,
title = "Predicting Lotto Numbers",
abstract = "We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”.",
keywords = "Faculty of Social Sciences, gambler’s fallacy, hot hand fallacy, representativeness, law of small numbers",
author = "J{\o}rgensen, {Claus Bj{\o}rn} and Sigrid Suetens and Jean-Robert Tyran",
note = "JEL classification: D03, D81, D84",
year = "2011",
language = "English",
publisher = "Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen",
address = "Denmark",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen",

}

RIS

TY - UNPB

T1 - Predicting Lotto Numbers

AU - Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn

AU - Suetens, Sigrid

AU - Tyran, Jean-Robert

N1 - JEL classification: D03, D81, D84

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”.

AB - We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - gambler’s fallacy

KW - hot hand fallacy

KW - representativeness

KW - law of small numbers

M3 - Working paper

BT - Predicting Lotto Numbers

PB - Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen

ER -

ID: 33116399