TY - UNPB

T1 - Glacial cycles

T2 - exogenous orbital changes vs. endogenous climate dynamics

AU - Kaufmann, R. K.

AU - Juselius, Katarina

PY - 2010

Y1 - 2010

N2 - We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduce glacial cycles. Rather, changes in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit are needed to simulate glacial cycles accurately. Also, results suggest that non-linear 10 dynamics, threshold effects, and/or free oscillations may not play an overriding role in glacial cycles.

AB - We use a statistical model, the cointegrated vector autoregressive model, to assess the degree to which variations in Earth's orbit and endogenous climate dynamics can be used to simulate glacial cycles during the late Quaternary (390 kyr-present). To do so, we estimate models of varying complexity and compare the accuracy of their in-sample simulations. Results indicate that strong statistical associations between endogenous climate variables are not enough for statistical models to reproduce glacial cycles. Rather, changes in solar insolation associated with changes in Earth's orbit are needed to simulate glacial cycles accurately. Also, results suggest that non-linear 10 dynamics, threshold effects, and/or free oscillations may not play an overriding role in glacial cycles.

M3 - Working paper

SP - 585

EP - 626

BT - Glacial cycles

PB - Copernicus Gesellschaft

CY - Göttingen

ER -