South Africa: Macroeconomic Perspectives for the Medium-Term
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South Africa : Macroeconomic Perspectives for the Medium-Term. / Brixen, Peter; Tarp, Finn.
In: World Development, Vol. 24, No. 6, 1996.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - South Africa
T2 - Macroeconomic Perspectives for the Medium-Term
AU - Brixen, Peter
AU - Tarp, Finn
N1 - Final Manuscript for World Development
PY - 1996
Y1 - 1996
N2 - This paper explores the macroeconomic situation and medium-term perspectives of the South African economy. Three fully quantified and internally consistent scenarios are presented. The projections demonstrate that there is room for increased public spending in real terms to help address South Africa's pressing social needs. Moreover, such expansion is possible without falling into a much feared debt trap, provided moderately optimistic assumptions about the future materialize. Yet, if growth and real resource inflows falter, not even considerable moderation will be sufficient to maintain macro-economic balance and avoid unsustainable public sector deficits.
AB - This paper explores the macroeconomic situation and medium-term perspectives of the South African economy. Three fully quantified and internally consistent scenarios are presented. The projections demonstrate that there is room for increased public spending in real terms to help address South Africa's pressing social needs. Moreover, such expansion is possible without falling into a much feared debt trap, provided moderately optimistic assumptions about the future materialize. Yet, if growth and real resource inflows falter, not even considerable moderation will be sufficient to maintain macro-economic balance and avoid unsustainable public sector deficits.
M3 - Journal article
VL - 24
JO - World Development
JF - World Development
SN - 1873-5991
IS - 6
ER -
ID: 164539484