Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen: "Conditional Cash Transfers and Household Demographic Dynamics: Capturing Unintended Outcomes"

In this paper we investigate whether income changes associated with conditional cash transfer programs affect household demographic dynamics. The data come from four rounds of the large Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), and empirical identification relies on the variation in participation status caused by late comers to the program (switchers). The results show that program participation is associated with a 5-6 percent increase in household size and that this increase is mainly due to an increase in the number of adolescent female household members. A more disaggregated analysis, based on information on the migration status of household members, suggest that the observed increase in the number of female members is due to a negative relationship between program participation and the number of out-migrant members. On the other hand, we do not find enough evidence to support the claim that program participation leads to more in-migrant adult members and/or encourages child bearing behavior. In relation to the latter, the evidence rather shows a negative and statistically significant association between program participation and households fertility decisions.