Asger Lau Andersen and Niels Johannesen on Deadline: The impact of the lockdown on economic activity

Most of the economic contraction is caused by the pandemic itself and occurs regardless of whether governments mandate social distancing or not.

In new research, Asger Lau Andersen, Emil Toft Hansen, Niels Johannesen, and Adam Sheridan show that consumer spending has been similarly reduced in Denmark and Sweden over the past months, even though only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on economic activities. This suggests that most of the economic contraction is caused by the pandemic itself and occurs regardless of whether governments mandate social distancing or not.

Lawrence H Summers (former economic advisor for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama) found what he called the "compeling statistical evidence" in the Washington Post: