"Torsten Persson, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm: ""Uncertainty, Climate Change and the Global Economy"" ";"EPRU";"2008-03-07";"1:00pm";"";"2:15pm";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Amedeo Spadaro, Paris School of Economics & Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca: ""Optimal taxation, social contract and the four worlds of welfare capitalism"" ";"EPRU";"2008-04-04";"1:00pm";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Momi Dahan, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem: ""Social Identity and Voter Turnout"".";"EPRU";"2008-05-16";"13:00-14:15";"";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"EPRU seminar ";""
"MEHR seminar ved: Tommy E. Murphy, Bocconi University";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-05-22";"15:15 - 16:30";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Seminarværelset (02-046)";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Ronald Wendner, University of Graz: ""Finite Horizon, Externalities, and Growth"".";"EPRU";"2008-05-23";"13:00";"";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"EPRU seminar";""
"Denise Konan, University of Hawaii at Manoa: ""The Economics of Climate Change"". ";"Department of Economics";"2008-05-23";"14:00 - 15:30";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010)";"Department seminar ";"download paper "
"MEHR seminar ved Bruce MS Campbell, Queen's University of Belfast";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-05-29";"15:15 - 16:30";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Seminarværelset (02-046)";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Jacob Weisdorf, University of Copenhagen: The Simplest Unified Growth Theory";"EPRU";"2008-05-30";"13:00 - 14:15";"";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Marco Battaglini, Princeton University: ""Fiscal Policy over the Real Business Cycle: A Positive Theory""";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-06-02";"15:00-16:00";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010)";"Department seminar ";"download abstract "
"Alexander Koch, Royal Holloway, University of London: ”Job Assignments Under Moral Hazard: The Peter Principle Revisited”";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-06-04";"13:00 - 14:15";"";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"";"download paper "
"Ingo Geishecker,Georg-August-Universität, Göttingen: TBA";"EPRU";"2008-06-06";"13:00 - 14:15";"";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"";""
"Oded Galor, Brown University: ""Diversity and Comparative Development""";"MEHR";"2008-06-13";"3:00pm";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Lars Ljungqvist, Stockholm School of Economics:""The Missing Swedish Skill Premium: Sweden versus the United States 1970-2002""";"EPRU";"2008-06-20";"11:00 - 12:15";"";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"";""
"Roman Frydman, New York University: “Why Macroeconomic Theory Cannot Ignore the Limits to Knowledge”";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-06-23";"14:00 - 15:30";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010)";"";"Further information (pdf) "
"Niels Framroze Møller, University of Copenhagen: ""Malthus in Co-Integration Space""";"MEHR";"2008-06-25";"3:00pm";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Skatteministeriet, Skatternes Økonomiske Virkning – Analyser ved brug af STØV-modellen";"EPRU";"2008-06-27";"13:00 - 14:30";"";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"EPRU Policy seminar ";""
"Copenhagen Microeconometrics Summer Workshop";"CAM";"2008-07-09";"Fra kl. 12:00";"";"";"Bispetorvsannekset, Room 213 and 214";"";"further information "
"Changes in the Distribution of Income Volatility    ";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-08-14";"kl. 13 - 14";"";"";"Seminarrummet på Bispetorv (325)";"";""
"Andrew Clark, PSE Paris: ""Looking for labour market rents with subjective data"".";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-08-25";"15:00-16:15";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010)";"Department seminar ";" Further information "
"Zvi Hercowitz, Tel-Aviv University";"EPRU";"2008-08-29";"13:00";"2008-08-29";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"EPRU Seminar";"""Welfare Implications of the Transition to High Household Debt"". Further information"
"Sinne Smed";"ØI";"2008-09-02";"15:00";"";"18:00";"Store Øvelsessal, Studiestræde 6, 2.sal 1455 København K";"PhD forsvar";"Sinne Smed: Empirical studies on Health, Information and Consumer Behaviour""."
" Jacob Weisdorf, University of Copenhagen: ""Ranking Economic History Journals: A Citation-Based Impact-Factor Analysis""";"MEHR";"2008-09-02";"3:00pm";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Robert Kaufmann & Katarina Juselius: ""Climate Change"".";"ØI";"2008-09-03";"14:00-16:00";"";"";"Større Øvelsessal, Studiestræde 6, 2.sal, 1455 København K";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract "
"Ingmar Schumacher, Catholic University of Louvain: ""The Role of Uncertainty and Insurance in Endogenous Climate Change"".";"EPRU";"2008-09-05";"12:30 - 13:45";"";"";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"EPRU Seminar ";" Download paper "
"Michael Bergman: ""Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints: The No Interest Parity Case"".";"EPRU";"2008-09-12";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017) ";"EPRU seminar ";" Download paper. "
"Matthew O. Jackson, Stanford University: ""An Economic Model of Friendship Formation: Homophily, Minorities and Segregation"".";"ØI";"2008-09-15";"15:00";"";"16:00";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010) ";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Mojgan Stegl, Tubingen University: ""‘Tall and Shrinking Muslims, Short and Growing Europeans: The Long-Run Welfare Development of the Middle East, 1850-1980"".";"Department seminar";"2008-09-18";"12:15";"";"";"The New Seminar Room on the 3rd Floor; 6 Studie Straede, DK-1455 Copenhagen";"MEHR seminar";"Download paper"
"Philipp Schröder, University of Aarhus: ""Globalization beyond partitioning"".";"EPRU";"2008-09-26";"13:00";"";"";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, Studiegården 3. sal.";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Simon Gächter, University of Nottingham: ""Kinked Conformism in voluntary cooperation"".";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-09-29";"15:00-16:15";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010)";"Department seminar ";""
"Niels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen: ""Optimal fiscal barriers to international economic integration in the presence of tax havens"".";"EPRU";"2008-10-03";"13:00";"";"";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, Studiegården 3. sal.";"EPRU seminar ";" Abstract We analyze taxation of cross-border interest payments from the perspective of a group of countries and show that the optimal tax system has two important features: Firstly, the tax rate on interest payments to other countries (i.e. the 'internal fiscal barrier') is zero since an internal barrier would imply a disproportionately high tax burden on multinational firms causing economic integration to be suboptimal. Secondly, the tax rate on interest payments to tax havens (i.e. the 'external fiscal barrier') is high enough to deter firms from using intra-group loans to shift profits to tax havens. In practice, however, international cooperation has been limited to reduction of internal barriers. We show that when a group of countries simply eliminate internal barriers, a tax competition dynamics drives external barriers down to zero leaving countries very exposed to profit shifting. The key to this result is that firms circumvent high external barriers by means of conduite loans introducing an incentive for countries to undercut the external barriers of other countries. Finally, we show that when cooperation is imperfect, the optimal internal barrier is positive. Raising the internal barrier above zero introduces a tax cost of conduit loans, which allows countries to maintain a positive external barrier. The efficiency cost of a raising the internal barrier marginally above zero is second-order and thus strictly dominated by the first-order gains of improved protection against profit shifting.” "
"Stephen Broadberry, University of Warwick: ""Commercialisation, factor prices and technological progress in the transition to modern economic growth: History and Theory"".";"MEHR";"2008-10-06";"";"";"";"Hjørneværelset, 3.sal Studiestræde 6";"MEHR seminar ";""
"4th Workshop on Behavioral Public Economics.";"CEE";"2008-10-11";"13:00";"2008-10-12";"18:00";"Studiestræde 6, room 02-010 (second floor, on the left)";"CEE workshop";""
"Dietrich Vollrath, University of Houston: ""Wealth Distribution and the Provision of Public Goods: Evidence from the United States""";"MEHR";"2008-10-16";"3:00pm";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Antonio Cabrales: ""Social Interactions and Spillovers: Incentives, Segregation and Topology"".";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-10-20";"15:00";"";"16:00";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010) ";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Klas Rönnbäck, University of Gothenburg: ""Atlantic sugar in the Baltic economy during the Early Modern period"".";"MEHR ";"2008-10-21";"12:15";"";"";"Studiegården, Seminarværelset, 2nd floor";"MEHR seminar";""
"Helene Bie Lilleør";"ØI";"2008-10-21";"14:00";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010) ";"PhD forsvar";"Helene Bie Lilleør: ""Uncertain Returns and Children´s Schooling in Tanzania""."
"Miguel Costa-Gomes, University of Aberdeen: ""Three-Hour versus Three-Week Long Experiments and Boundedly Rational Behaviour in Games"".";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-10-22";"11:00";"";"12:00";"Studiegården 3.sal, Ny Seminarværelse";"";" Download abstract "
"Martin Uebele, Münster University: ""World and National Wheat Market Integration in the 19th Century""";"MEHR";"2008-10-23";"3:00pm";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";""
"  Alice Schoonbroodt, University of Southampton: ""Complements versus substitutes and trends in fertility choice in dynastic models"" ";"MEHR";"2008-10-23";"3:00pm";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Søren Leth-Petersen, University of Copenhagen: “Intertemporal Consumption and Credit Constraints: Does Total Expenditure Respond to an Exogenous Shock to Credit?"". ";"EPRU";"2008-10-24";"13:00";"";"";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, Studiegården 3. sal.";"";""
"Laura Mørch Andersen";"ØI";"2008-10-27";"14:00";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010) ";"PhD forsvar";"Laura Mørch Andersen:""Information Provision to Consumers as an Instrument of Environmental Regulation"""
"Stephen Broadberry, University of Warwick: ""Commercialisation, Factor Prices and Technological Progress in the Transition to Modern Growth"".";"MEHR";"2008-11-06";"15:15";"";"";"Studiegården 6, 2. sal, Seminarværelset.";"MEHR seminar";""
"Workshop: ""Land and Labour Productivity in Pre-Industrial Agriculture"".";"Økonomisk Institut";"2008-11-07";"09:00 - 17:00";"";"";"Seminarværelset, Studiegården 2.sal";"ØI workshop";""
"NielsArne Dam, Nationalbanken";"EPRU";"2008-11-07";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Studiegården 6, 2. sal, Det Ny Seminarværelse (03-017)";"EPRU seminar";"""Estimating the Cross-sectional Distribution of Price Stickiness from Aggregate Data"". Download paper"
"DGPE Annual Meeting";"DGPE";"2008-11-13";"12:00";"2008-11-14";"14:00";"Kollekolle, Frederiksborgvej 105, 3500 Værløse ";"DGPE, PhD Workshop ";""
"3rd Nordic Conference on Behavioral and Experimental Economics.";"CEE";"2008-11-14";"09:00";"2008-11-15";"17:00";"""Alexandersalen"", Bispetorvet 3.";"CEE conference";""
"ETSERN: ""Nonlinear Time Series Analysis"".";"";"2008-11-17";"13:00";"2008-11-18";"Aften";"Bispetorvet lok. 214";"Workshop ";""
"Daniel Le Maire";"ØI";"2008-11-17";"14:00";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010) ";"PhD forsvar.";"Daniel Le Maire: ""Essays on Labor Market Search and the Distribution of Incomes""."
"Atef Qureshi, Arbejdsdirektoratet: ""The Effect of Punitive Sanctions on the Transition rate from Welfare to Work -An empirical analysis of the Danish labour market"".";"EPRU";"2008-11-21";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, Studiegården 3. sal.";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Omer Moav, Hebrew University and Royal Holloway University of London";"EPRU";"2008-11-28";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Studiegården 3.sal, Det nye seminarværelse (03-017)";"EPRU seminar";"""Conspicuous Consumption, Human Capital, and Poverty"". Download paper"
"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, 50 years: ""Workshop on Economic Theory 2008""";"ØI";"2008-12-05";"09:00";"2008-12-06";"17:00";"Bispetorvet lok. 213 (fredag) CSS lok. 2.1.49 (lørdag)";" ØI workshop ";"Download program "
"Maria Petrova, New Economic School, Moscow: ""Newspapers and Parties: How Advertising Revenues Created an Independent Press”.";"EPRU";"2008-12-05";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, Studiegården 3. sal.";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Martin Kaae Jensen, University of Birmingham: ""Aggregate Comparative Statics"".";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2008-12-15";"14:00";"";"15:00";"Studiegården 6, 2. sal, ""Det Ny Seminarværelse"" (03-017)";" Department seminar ";" Download abstract "
"Research Workshop on Prediction Markets";"ØI";"2008-12-17";"12:00";"2008-12-18";"16:00";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010) ";"Workshop ";"Download program "
"Tobias Markeprand";"";"2009-01-12";"13:00";"";"";"Studiegården 2.sal, Større Øvelsessal (02-010) ";"";"Tobias Markeprand:""Incomplete Financial Markets:Volatility and Transaction Costs""."
"Matthias Parey, University College London: ""Vocational Schooling versus Apprenticeship Training: Evidence from Vacancy Data"".";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2009-01-14";"14:00";"";"";"Bispetorvet, 3rd floor, the seminar room (325 B)";"Department seminar";""
"Kaj Thomsson, Yale University: ""Public and Private Welfare State Institutions- A Formal Theory of American Exceptionalism"".";"ØI";"2009-01-23";"13:00";"";"";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården. ";"Department seminar";""
"Ernesto Reuben, Northwestern University: ""Procrastination and Impatience"".";"Department of Economics";"2009-01-26";"14:00";"";"15:00";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården. ";" Department seminar ";" Download abstract Contact person: Lars Peter Østerdal "
"Leticia Arroyo Abad, University of California:""Inequality in Republican Latin America: Assessing the Effects of Factor Endowment and Trade"".";"Department of Economics";"2009-01-27";"14:00";"";"15:00";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården. ";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract Download paper "
"Emiliano Santoro, University of Copenhagen: ""Bank Lending, Durable Goods and Spreads""";"EPRU";"2009-02-06";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Andrei Zlate, Boston College: ""Offshore Production and Business Cycle Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms""";"Department of Economics";"2009-02-09";"14:00";"";"15:00";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården. ";"Department seminar. ";"Download abstract Download paper (pdf file, 2 Mb) "
"Frank Hansen, University of Copenhagen: ""Decreasing relative risk premium and risk vulnerability"".";"Department of Economics";"2009-02-09";"15:00";"";"";"Større Øvelsessal, 2nd floor, Studiegården.";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Jacob Weisdorf, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2009-02-13";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar";"""Consumerism and Desired Fertility"". Download abstract"
"Joannes Jacobsen, University of Copenhagen: ""Disease and Development Revisited: A Reevaluation of the Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth"".";"Department of Economics";"2009-02-18";"12:00am";"";"";"Bispetorvet, 3rd floor, the seminar room (325 B) ";"PhD seminar ";" Download abstract Download paper "
"Markus Lampe, University of Münster and Copenhagen: ""Determinants and effects of mid-nineteenth century bilateralism and why Denmark didn't participate""";"MEHR";"2009-02-19";"3:15pm";"";"";"""Hjørneværelset"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Bertil Tungodden, NHH Bergen: ""Explaining reciprocal behaviour without reciprocal preferences""";"Department of Economics";"2009-02-23";"15:00";"";"16:00";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården. ";"Department seminar. ";"Download abstract "
"Alan L. Olmstead, University of California: “Adjusting to Climatic Variation: Historical Perspectives from North American Agricultural Development”";"MEHR";"2009-02-26";"4:15pm";"";"";"""Seminarværelset"", 2nd floor, Studiegården.";"MEHR seminar";""
"David Dreyer Lassen, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2009-02-27";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar";"""The effect of political consolidation on local democracy: Evidence from large-scale municipal reforms"". Download paper"
"PhD SEMINAR: Paul Sharp & Jacob Weisdorf, University of Copenhagen: ""Malta and the Nineteenth Century Grain Trade: British free trade in a microcosm of Empire?""";"Department of Economics";"2009-03-02";"12:00am";"";"";"Bispetorvet, 3rd floor, the seminar room (325 B) ";"PhD seminar ";" Download abstract Download paper "
"Kerstin Enflo, University of Lund and Copenhagen: ""Regional growth and convergence: What can historical data show""";"MEHR";"2009-03-05";"3:15pm";"";"";"""Hjørneværelset"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Claus Thustrup Kreiner, University of Copenhagen: ""An Experimental Evaluation of Tax Evasion and Tax Enforcement in Denmark""";"EPRU";"2009-03-06";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Niels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen: ""Tax Evasion and Foreign Bank Deposits – Evidence from a Natural Experiment"".";"EPRU";"2009-03-13";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Bruno De Borger, University of Antwerpen";"EPRU";"2009-03-16";"01:00";"";"03:00";"Større Øvelsessal, 2nd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar";"""Cost-Benefit Analysis of Transport Investments in Distorted Economies"". Download abstract"
"Niels Lynggaard, Danmarks Nationalbank & Michael Bergman, University og Copenhagen: ""Pass-Through of Excise Taxes on Beverage Prices"".";"EPRU";"2009-03-20";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Ruben Durante, Brown University: In Climate We Trust: ""Weather Variability, Risk Sharing, and the Historical Emergence of Generalized Trust""";"MEHR";"2009-03-25";"02:00";"";"03:30";"""Seminarværelset"", 2nd floor, Studiegården. ";"MEHR seminar";""
"Ruben Durante, Brown University: ""Preferences for Redistribution and Perception of Merit: An Experimental Study""";"CEE";"2009-03-26";"14:00";"";"15:00";"""Seminarværelset"", 2nd floor, Studiegården.";"Department seminar";""
"Etienne Lehmann, CREST: ""Optimal income taxation with endogenous participation and search unemployment""";"EPRU";"2009-03-27";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Marko Koethenbuerger, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2009-04-03";"01:00";"";"02:15";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar";"""Does Tax Competition Really Promote Growth?"" Download paper"
"Douglas Reid, Hull University: ""Work, weekdays and weddings: labour supply in the industrial revolution""";"MEHR";"2009-04-16";"3:00pm";"";"";"""The Seminar Room"" 2nd Floor; 6 Studie Straede, DK-1455 Copenhagen";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Andrew Rose, University of California, Berkeley";"EPRU";"2009-04-17";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar";"""The Olympic Effect"". Download paper"
"Pranab Bardhan, University of California, Berkeley: ""Decentralisation and development""";"Department of Economics";"2009-04-23";"12:00";"2009-04-23";"13:00";"Større Øvelsessal, Studiestræde 6, 2.sal, 1455 København K";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Søren Leth-Petersen, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2009-04-24";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar";"""Consumption and Savings of First Time House Owners: How Do They Deal with Adverse Income Shocks?"" Download abstract/paper"
"Marco Casari, University of Bologna: “Explicit versus Implicit Contracts for Dividing the Benefits of Cooperation” ";"Department of Economics";"2009-04-27";"15:00";"";"16:00";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiegården";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract Download paper "
"Hans-Joachim Voth, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona: “Financial Crises, Bubbles and Crashes”.";"Department of Economics";"2009-04-28";"Tue: 3:30pm-5:30pm";"2009-04-30";"Wed and Thur: 08:30am-1:00pm";"""Større Øvelsessal"", 2nd Floor, Studiegården.";"PhD seminar.";"Download syllabus"
"Hans-Joachim Voth, Universitat Pompeu Fabra: ""How the West invented fertility restriction""";"MEHR";"2009-04-29";"4:00pm";"";"";"""The Seminar Room"" 2nd Floor; 6 Studie Straede, DK-1455 Copenhagen";"MEHR seminar ";"Download paper "
" “Infinite Economies Workshop” ";"Department of Economics";"2009-04-30";"";"";"";"METRO building, Room 7, Fiolstræde 4-6, 1171 Copenhagen";"Department Workshop";"Further information"
"John Roemer. Yale University";"EPRU/WEST";"2009-05-06";"01:00";"2009-05-06";"02:15";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""The ethics of distribution in a warming planet”. Download paper"
"Daniel Waldenström, Research Institute of Industrial Economics: ""The long-run determinants of inequality: What can we learn from top income data?""";"MEHR";"2009-05-06";"3:00pm";"2009-05-06";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract/paper "
"Mark Gradstein, Ben-Gurion University, Israel";"EPRU";"2009-05-07";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar";"""Education and Democratic Preferences"" Download paper"
"Eyal Winter, Hebrew University: ""Mental Equilibrium and Rational Emotions""";"Department of Economics";"2009-05-11";"15:00";"";"16:00";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården. ";"Department seminar. ";"Download abstract/paper "
"Andres Carvajal, University of Warwick:"" No-Arbitrage, State Prices and Trade in Thin Financial Markets""";"Department of Economics";"2009-05-11";"2:00pm";"2009-05-11";"3:00pm";"""The Seminar Room"" 2nd Floor; 6 Studie Straede, DK-1455 Copenhagen";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract Download paper "
"Christin Kyrme Tuxen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen: ""Debt dynamics and fiscal policy in the euro area""";"Department of Economics";"2009-05-13";"12:00am";"2009-05-13";"";"325B, Bispetorvet, 3rd floor";"PhD seminar ";"Download paper "
"Paul Sharp, University of Copenhagen: ""The strange birth of Liberal Denmark: Danish trade protection and the growth of the dairy industry in the mid-19th century""";"MEHR";"2009-05-14";"3:00pm";"2009-05-14";"";"""Seminarværelset"", 2nd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar";""
"Peter Katuscak, Charles University, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic: ""Effects of Predictable Tax Liability Variation on Household Labor Income""";"EPRU";"2009-05-15";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"David Cuberes, Clemson University: ""Sequential City Growth: Theory and Evidence""";"MEHR";"2009-05-20";"15:00";"";"16:30";"""Hjørneværelset"", 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"MEHR seminar";""
"Bård Harstad, Kellogg School of management, Northwestern University: ""The Dynamics of Climate Agreements""";"EPRU/WEST";"2009-05-26";"1:00pm";"";"2:15pm";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"EPRU/WEST ";"Download paper "
"Mattias Polborn, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign";"EPRU/WEST";"2009-05-28";"01:00";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"EPRU/WEST";"""A Political Economy model of Taxation and Government Expenditures with Differentiated Candidates"" Download paper"
"Davide Sala, ASB, University of Aarhus: ""Market Access through Bound Tariffs""";"EPRU";"2009-05-29";"1:00pm";"";"";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Tommaso Monacelli, Universita’ Bocconi: ""Fiscal Policy, Wealth Effects, and Markups""";"Department of Economics";"2009-06-02";"11:00am";"2009-06-02";"12:00am";"""Det Ny Seminarværelse"", 3rd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Daniel L. Thornton, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: ""The Unusual Behavior of the Federal Funds and 10-Year Treasury Rates: A Conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?""";"Department of Economics";"2009-06-08";"3:00pm";"2009-06-08";"4:00pm";"";" Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Thomas Markussen";"Department of Economics";"2009-06-10";"3:00pm";"2009-06-10";"";"""Større Øvelsessal"", 2nd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"PhD forsvar";"""Institutions in Development: Five Essays on Politics, Property Rights and Prosperity"""
"Gregory Clark, University of California, Davis: ""Was there ever a ruling class? England 1200-2009""";"MEHR";"2009-06-11";"4:00pm";"2009-06-11";"";"""Seminarværelset"", 2nd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar";""
"CEE Day: Special topic: ""Second wave of iLEE""";"CEE";"2009-06-11";"9:00am";"2009-06-11";"6:00pm";"""Større Øvelsessal"", 2nd floor, Studiestræde 6, 1455 Copenhagen K";"CEE Workshop";""
"Hilary Hoynes, University of California, Davis: ""Consumption Reponses to In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from the Introduction of the Food Stamp Program""";"EPRU/WEST";"2009-06-12";"13:00";"2009-06-12";"14:15";"Det Ny Seminarværelse, 3rd floor, Studiegården.";"EPRU/WEST seminar ";"Download paper "
"EPRN Netværkskonference";"EPRN";"2009-06-18";"09:00";"2009-06-18";"18:00";"""Alexandersalen"", Bispetorvet 3.";"EPRN konference";"Download programme"
"EPRN Netværks konference, Økonomisk Politik i Danmark: ""Economic Policy in the Modern Welfarestate""";"EPRN";"2009-06-19";"09:00";"2009-06-19";"12:00";"""Alexandersalen"", Bispetorvet 3.";"EPRN konference ";"Download programme "
"Paul Sharp";"Department of Economics";"2009-06-24";"2:00pm";"2009-06-24";"";"CSS, lokale 7.0.22, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen K.";"PhD forsvar";"Paul Sharp, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen: ""Wheat, Globalization and Economic History"" More information on ""Wheat Globalisation and Economic History"""
"Microeconometric Network Meeting";"Econometrics Group";"2009-07-09";"12:00am";"2009-07-11";"1:00pm";"CSS 15.3.01/CSS 15.3.15/CSS 5.0.28 Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen K";"Econometrics Group Conference ";""
"Takeshi Amemiya, Stanford University: ""Thirty Five Years of Journal of Econometrics""";"Department of Economics";"2009-08-07";"15:00";"";"";"";"Department seminar ";""
"Joannes Jacobsen";"Department of Economics";"2009-08-18";"4:00pm";"2009-08-18";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 1.1.18), 1353 Kbh K";"PhD forsvar";"Joannes Jacobsen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen: ""Longevity and Electoral Rules as Determinants of Comparative Development"" The thesis consists of four papers. The first three papers examine the effects of increases in lifeexpectancy around the world, caused by the revolution in medical technology which started in themid 1940s, on markers of development. The three papers consider in turn, the effect of increasesin life expectancy on income per capita, schooling and democracy. The effects of increases in lifeexpectancy are found to be that:1. Measures of democracy improve substantially.2. Income per capita decreases initially but recovers to its initial level after 30 years.3. Literacy and primary school enrolment rates increase substantially. Secondary school enrolmentrates decrease substantially initially but recover partially over a 30 year period.The last paper examines the effect of choice of electoral system on corruption levels. It concludesthat majoritarian electoral systems imply economically and statistically significantly lowercorruption levels than proportional representation electoral systems."
"Hans-Werner Sinn, University of Munich/CESifo: ""Table or Tank: Why Biofuels are a Blind Alley""";"Department of Economics and Institute of Food and Resource Economics";"2009-09-02";"1:15pm";"";"";"Festauditoriet (1-01), Det Biovidenskabelige Fakultet, Bülowsvej 17, Frederiksberg Campus";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Mogens Fosgerau, DTU transport: ""Random queues and risk averse users""";"EPRU";"2009-09-04";"01:00";"2009-09-04";"02:15";"Seminarrum 1. sal (26.1.21B) Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Topics in Mathematical Physics and Operator Algebra";"Frank Hansen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen and Sergei Silvestrov, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University.";"2009-09-07";"10:30am";"2009-09-07";"4:20pm";"The Department of Economics, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bldg. 26, 1353 Copenhagen K";"";""
"Frederik Roose";"Department of Economics";"2009-09-11";"3:00pm";"2009-09-11";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 1.1.18  1353 Copenhagen K";"PhD forsvar";"Frederik Roose Øvlisen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen: ""Essays in Bounded Rationality and Strategic Interaction"" Read the abstract"
"Centre for Industrial Economics - Workshop 2009";"CIE";"2009-09-18";"12:00pm";"2009-09-19";"1:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"CIE workshop ";""
"Paolo Giordani, LUISS ""Guido Carli"" University, Rome";"EPRU";"2009-09-18";"13:00";"";"14:15";"Seminarrum 1. sal, Bygning 26, CSS";"EPRU seminar";"""Prejudice and Immigration"" Download paper"
"Lars Calmfors, University of Stockholm";"EPRU";"2009-09-23";"01:15";"2009-09-23";"";"Seminarrum 2. sal (26.2.21) Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K";"EPRU seminar";"""Pattern Bargaining and Wage Leadership in a Small Open Economy"" Download paper"
"Karine van der Beek, Ben-Gurion University: ""Patterns of Investment in Human Capital on the Even of the British Industrial Revolution""";"MEHR";"2009-10-01";"3:00pm";"2009-10-01";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"MEHR seminar";""
"Kostas Koufopoulos, Warwick Business School: ""Optimality with adverse selection""";"Department of Economics";"2009-10-05";"1:00pm";"2009-10-05";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Nicolai Kaarsen, University of Copenhagen: ""Cross-Country Differences in the Quality of Human Capital""";"EPRU";"2009-10-16";"1:00pm";"2009-10-16";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Arno Riedl, Maastricht University: ""Enforcement of Contribution Norms in Public Good Games with Heterogeneous Populations""";"Department of Economics";"2009-10-19";"3:00pm";"";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Lars Kunze, University of Dortmund: ""Capital taxation and the long-run growth, and bequests""";"EPRU";"2009-10-30";"1:00pm";"2009-10-30";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Michael Bergman, University of Copenhagen: ""Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe: Lessons from the Scandinavian Currency Union""";"EPRU";"2009-11-06";"01:00";"2009-11-06";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";""
"Nizar Allouch, Queen Mary, University of London: ""A Competitive  Equilibrium for a  Warm Glow  Economy""";"Department of Economics";"2009-11-09";"1:00pm";"2009-11-09";"2:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Fane Groes";"Department of Economics";"2009-11-11";"2:00pm";"2009-11-11";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"PhD forsvar";"Fane Groes: ""Essays on Occupation Mobility with Evidence from Full Population Data"" Read Fane's abstract"
"Martin Ljunge, University of Copenhagen: ""Sick of the Welfare State? Lagged Stigma and Demand for Social Insurance""";"EPRU";"2009-11-13";"1:00pm";"2009-11-13";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Frederic Warzynski, Aarhus School of Business";"EPRU";"2009-11-20";"01:00";"2009-11-20";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";"""Learning by Exporting, Importing or Both? Structural estimation of productivity with multi-product firms and the role of international trade"" Download abstract"
"4th Sound Economic History Workshop (FRESH)";"Department of Economics";"2009-11-20";"9:00am";"2009-11-20";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20 / Lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Department workshop";"Call for papers"
"Mariya Teteryatnikova, University of Vienna: ""Resilience of the Interbank Network to Shocks and Optimal Bail-Out Strategy: Advantages of ""Tiered"" Banking Systems""";"Department of Economics";"2009-11-23";"1:00pm";"2009-11-23";"2:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Georg Kirchsteiger, ECARES / Université Libre de Bruxelles: ""Other-Regarding Preferences in General Equilibrium""";"Department of Economics";"2009-11-23";"3:00pm";"2009-11-23";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Markus Lampe & Paul Sharp, University of Copenhagen: ""Heterogeneity or homogeneity in the tariff-growth experience? Why history and institutions matter""";"MEHR";"2009-11-26";"3:00pm";"2009-11-26";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.0.22), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Jan Rose Skaksen, Copenhagen Business School: ""Do Foreign Experts Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms""";"EPRU";"2009-11-27";"13:00";"2009-11-27";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Jean-Marc Bonnisseau, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne Université: ""The Survival Assumption in Intertemporal Economy""";"Department of Economics";"2009-11-30";"1:00pm";"2009-11-30";"2:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Uwe Sunde, University of St. Gallen: ""Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition""";"MEHR";"2009-12-03";"3:00pm";"2009-12-03";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar";""
"Peter Ejler Storgaard, Nationalbanken: ""Wage Development in Denmark""";"EPRU";"2009-12-04";"01:00";"2009-12-04";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU Policy Seminar";""
"Pablo Selaya";"Department of Economics";"2009-12-10";"2:00pm";"2009-12-10";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"PhD forsvar";"Pablo Selaya: ""Empirical Studies on Growth and Comparative Development"" The thesis consists of five self‐contained chapters. Chapter 1 shows that a higher frequency oflightning strikes is negatively correlated with IT diffusion and economic growth across US states.Lightning strikes create power disruptions that reduce longevity of digital equipment and slowdown IT diffusion. Hence, macroeconomic sensitivity to this particular feature of climate may bedue to the increasing importance of digital technologies for the growth process. Chapter 2 useslightning frequency as an instrument for computer and Internet use, and shows that diffusion inthe use of this type of technologies has contributed to alleviating corruption across countries andUS states. Chapter 3 studies the impact of development aid on bureaucratic quality. It identifies anegative effect from aid given as grants and support to the general budget, as compared to aninsignificant effect from aid given as loans and support to specific public projects. Chapter 4investigates the relationship between aid and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and shows that aidattracts FDI if it is invested in complementary inputs (like public infrastructure or human capitalinvestments), whereas aid crowds FDI out if it is invested in pure capital goods. Chapter 5 analyzesthe extent to which development aid flows give rise to currency overvaluation and lead to a loss ofexport competitiveness. Results show positive effects of aid on labour productivity at recipientcountries’ tradable and non tradable sectors. The paper thus finds no empirical support for theidea that aid reduces export competitiveness in developing countries.​​​​​​​​​​"
"Georg Schaur, University of Tennessee";"EPRU";"2009-12-11";"01:00";"2009-12-11";"02:15";"Seminarrum 1. sal (26.1.21B) Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K";"EPRU seminar";"""Firm Flexibility and Export Potential"". Download abstract"
"Christin Kyrme Tuxen";"Department of Economics";"2009-12-14";"3:00pm";"2009-12-14";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 18.01.11), 1353 Kbh K";"PhD forsvar";"Christin Kyrme Tuxen: ""Macroeconomic transmission mechanisms in a non-stationary world"" The purpose of the thesis is to identify a set of broad empirical regularities which can beinterpreted in light of economic theory. Common to all chapters is the use of the co integratedVAR model in empirical studies of macroeconomic transmission mechanisms. Economic theory isconsistently used to guide identification of the statistical models but it is shown that a trade‐offbetween economic identification and statistical significance often arises. Together, the chaptersprovide a consistent set of evidence against the existence of a clear link between the short‐ andthe long‐term interest rate. As a result, monetary policy seems to have had little control overinflation in recent decades, and the apparent success of inflation‐targeting central banks has beengreatly aided by downward pressure on prices induced by globalisation. The results presented inthe thesis taken alongside events during the current financial and economic crisis suggest that itmay be beneficial for policy makers to focus less on the prices of goods and services and directmore attention towards the prices of assets. In today's highly integrated world economy, it ishowever likely to be the global stance of monetary policy that matters, calling for a larger degreeof policy coordination across countries. "
"CAM Research Workshop 2009";"CAM";"2009-12-17";"9:00am";"2009-12-17";"10:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20 / Lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"CAM workshop ";"Download programme "
"Andrew J. Oswald, University of Warwick: ""Objective Confirmation of Subjective Measures of Human Well-Being: Evidence from the U.S.A."" ";"Department of Economics";"2010-01-22";"2:30pm";"";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Contact person: Mich Tvede "
"Lasse Holbøll Westh Nielsen & David Dreyer Lassen, University of Copenhagen: TBA";"EPRU";"2010-02-05";"1:00pm";"2010-02-05";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Christian Ghiglino, University of Essex: ""Strategic Information Transmission in Networks""";"Department of Economics";"2010-02-08";"3:00pm";"2010-02-08";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Mich Tvede "
"Karl Gunnar Persson, University of Copenhagen: ""The Scottish War of Succession in which Young Prince Gregory Attempts to Dethrone King Angus""";"MEHR";"2010-02-11";"3:00pm";"2010-02-11";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar";""
"Zvi Hercowitz, Tel-Aviv University, Israel: ""Liquidity Constraints of the Middle Class"" ";"EPRU";"2010-02-12";"13:00";"2010-02-12";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Daniel Nguyen: ""The Desire for Quality across Products and Destinations""";"EPRU";"2010-02-19";"1:00pm";"2010-02-19";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";"Recent theories of international trade have disparate predictions concerning the correlationbetween a firm level prices and sales. To test these theories, I estimate the correlation betweenfirm prices and sales within a market. I do this for all six‐digit products and destination countries towhich Denmark exports between 1999‐2006. I find that most Danish exports are to markets inwhich the price is positively correlated with sales, that these correlations are significantly differentacross destinations for a given product, and that most of them constant across years. While someof the existing theories perform better than others at predicting these patterns, none of them canreconcile the variation across destinations. To fully explain the patterns, I introduce a model inwhich the desire for high quality goods over low cost substitutes differs across countries andproducts. Even when controlling for endogenous selection, I find that countries with higherincomes desire more quality."
"Frans van der Winden, Amsterdam School of Economics ";"Department of Economics";"2010-02-22";"3:00pm";"2010-02-22";"4:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar";"Read more about the subject: ""On the Role of Empathy and Sympathy in Sharing"""
"Larry Neal, University of Illinois and LSE: ""'Reflections from the Mirror of Folly: The Adventures of Lord Londonderry in the Stock Markets of Paris, Amsterdam, and London in the bubbles of 1719-1721""";"MEHR";"2010-02-25";"3:00pm";"";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20 / Lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar";""
"Christian Bjørnskov, Aarhus University: ""Does Religiosity Promote or Discourage Social Trust? Evidence from Cross-Country and Cross-State Comparisons""";"EPRU";"2010-02-26";"1:00pm";"2010-02-26";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Jacob Weisdorf, University of Copenhagen: ""What doesn’t kill you, makes you stronger? Evidence from the English famine of 1727-29""";"MEHR";"2010-03-04";"3:00pm";"2010-03-04";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar";""
"Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan: ""Car Notches""";"EPRU";"2010-03-05";"01:00";"2010-03-05";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Pelle Ahlerup, University of Gothenburg: ""On the roots of ethnic diversity""";"MEHR";"2010-03-11";"03:00";"2010-03-11";"05:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar";"Download abstract Contact person: Jacob Weisdorf"
"Jonathan Halket, University College London: ""Home Ownership, Savings and Mobility Over The Life Cycle""";"EPRU";"2010-03-12";"1:00pm";"2010-03-12";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Zeuthen Lectures:""Unemployment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies";"";"2010-03-17";"3:00pm";"2010-03-19";"12:00am";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"";"Zeuthen Lectures: Jordi Galí, Universitat Pompeu Fabra: ""Unemployment Fluctuations and Stabilization Policies: A New Keynesian Perspective"" Generelt om Zeuthen Lectures"
"Nina Birberg- Fazlic, University of Copenhagen: TBA";"EPRU";"2010-03-19";"1:00pm";"2010-01-19";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Zeuthen Workshop";"";"2010-03-19";"";"2010-03-20";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"";"Generelt om Zeuthen Lectures/Workshop"
"Salvatore Nistico, Università di Roma: ""International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty""";"EPRU";"2010-03-26";"01:00";"2010-03-26";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Nicholas Crafts, University of Warwick: ""Making Sense of the Manufacturing Belt: Determinants of Industrial Location in the United States, 1880-1920""";"MEHR";"2010-04-08";"3:00pm";"2010-04-08";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20 / Lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";""
"Peter Skott, University of Massachusetts: ""Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis""";"EPRU";"2010-04-09";"1:00pm";"2010-04-09";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Jose Mauricio Prado,University of Cambridge and King's College: ""Warfare, Fiscal Capacity, and Performance: An Empirical Investigation""";"EPRU";"2010-04-16";"1:00pm";"2010-04-16";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Caterina Mendicino, banco de Portugal";"EPRU";"2010-04-23";"01:00";"2010-04-23";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market"" - CANCELLED"
"Peter Sudhölter, University of Southern Denmark: ""Characterizations of solutions for cooperative games""";"Department of Economics ";"2010-04-26";"3:00pm";"2010-04-26";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Lars Peter Østerdal "
"Ujjayant Chakravorty, University of Alberta: ""Think Globally, Act Locally? Regulating a Fossil Fuel that Causes Flow and Stock Pollution""";"Department of Economics";"2010-04-27";"3:00pm";"2010-04-27";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact persons: Mich Tvede and Brooks Kaiser "
"John Karl Scholz, University of Wisconsin - Madison";"EPRU/WEST";"2010-04-28";"01:00";"2010-04-28";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";"""Health and Wealth in a Lifecycle Model"". Download paper"
"Yves Balasko, University of York ";"Department of Economics";"2010-04-28";"3:00pm";"2010-04-28";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar";"Read more about ""The natural projection approach to smooth production economies"" Contact person: Mich Tvede"
"Jane Humphries, University of Oxford ";"MEHR";"2010-04-29";"04:00";"2010-04-29";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.2.20, 1353 Copenhagen K ";"MEHR seminar";"""Childhood and Child Labour in the British Industrial Revolution""."
"Alec Morton, London School of Economics and Political Science: ""Patrolling a graph: a game theoretic analysis""";"Department of Economics";"2010-05-06";"1:00pm";"2010-05-06";"2:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Lars Peter Østerdal "
"Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, Universidad de San Andrés";"EPRU";"2010-05-07";"11:00";"2010-05-07";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar";"""An Optimal Voting Rule for the IMF"". Download paper"
"Michael Kosfeld, Göethe Universität: ""TBA""";"Department of Economics";"2010-05-11";"";"2009-12-14";"";"";"Department seminar ";""
"Yongseok Shin, University of Washington in St. Louis: ""Finance and Development: A Tale of Two Sectors""";"EPRU";"2010-05-12";"1:00pm";"2010-05-12";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Mark Hallerberg, Hertie School of Governance";"EPRU/WEST";"2010-05-21";"01:30";"2010-05-21";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Crisis and Fiscal Reforms in Latin America""."
"Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir, University of Iceland: ""Obesity and Employment: The Case of Iceland""";"Department of Economics";"2010-05-31";"3:00pm";"2010-05-31";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Lars Peter Østerdal "
"Enrico Spolaore, Tufts University, Boston: ""War and Relatedness""";"Department of Economics";"2010-06-03";"1:00pm";"2010-06-03";"2:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Jeanet Bentzen "
"Pietro Peretto, Duke University: ""Technology, Population and Resources: A Schumpeterian Theory of Take-off and Convergence to Sustained Growth""";"EPRU";"2010-06-04";"1:00pm";"2010-06-04";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Kevin Hoover, Duke University: ""Microfoundational Programs""";"Department of Economics";"2010-06-04";"2:30pm";"2010-06-04";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Katarina Juselius "
"EPRN konference: ""Economic Policy Challenges in a Modern Economy""";"EPRN";"2010-06-10";"";"2010-06-11";"06:00";"Please see programme for further information.";"";"Download programme Konferencedeltagelse er gratis, men tilmelding er nødvendig på grund af begrænset antal pladser. "
"Peter Egger, ETH Zürich: ""The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements""";"EPRU";"2010-06-18";"1:00pm";"2010-06-18";"2:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Jaime Reis, University of Lisbon: ""Corporate law vs. company charter: shareholder protection and corporate governance in late 19th century Portugal""";"MEHR";"2010-06-25";"12:00pm";"2010-06-25";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract "
"(ESA) Economic Science Association - World Meeting";"";"2010-07-08";"";"2010-07-11";"";"";"CEE conference";"The Department of Economics at the University of Copenhagen will host the 2010 World Meeting of the Economic Science Association (ESA) "
"Nina Boberg-Fazlic, University of Copenhagen: ""Survival of the Richest? Testing the Clark Hypothesis using English Pre-industrial Data from Family Reconstitution Records""";"MEHR";"2010-09-02";"3:00pm";"2010-09-02";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Kelly Ragan, Stockholm School of Economics: ""The Role of Culture in Contraception Demand""";"MEHR";"2010-09-09";"3:00pm";"2010-09-09";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Niels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2010-09-10";"01:00";"2010-09-10";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""Taxing the Financially Integrated Multinational Firm"". Download paper"
"Holger Strulik, University of Hannover: ""Knowledge and Growth in the Very Long-Run""";"EPRU";"2010-09-17";"01:00";"2010-09-17";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";""
"Chryssi Giannitsarou, University of Cambridge: ""Social Structure & Human Capital Dynamics""";"MRU";"2010-09-17";"3:00pm";"2010-09-17";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, lokale 26.1.21B, 1353 Copenhagen K ";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Norov Tumennasan, University of Aarhus: ""Representative Democracy and Implementation""";"Department of Economics";"2010-09-20";"3:00pm";"2010-09-20";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen "
"Christopher Dent, University of Leeds: ""Free Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific""";"EPRU";"2010-09-22";"3:15pm";"2010-09-22";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Paul Sharp, University of Copenhagen: ""The role of technology and institutions for growth:  Danish creameries in the late nineteenth century""";"MEHR";"2010-09-23";"3:00pm";"2010-09-23";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Thomas Jensen, Department of Economics: ""Exit Polls and Voter Turnout""";"EPRU";"2010-09-24";"1:00pm";"2010-09-24";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract and paper "
" Jonathan Eaton, Penn State University: ""Trade and the Global Recession""";"EPRU/WEST";"2010-10-01";"1:00pm";"2010-10-01";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Tiltrædelsesforelæsning: Mette Ejrnæs og Søren Leth-Petersen";"Department of Economics";"2010-10-08";"02:00";"2010-10-08";"";"Department of Economics, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26 (access from Gammeltoftsgade 19) Det Store Seminarrum, 2nd floor, DK-1353 Copenhagen K";"Tiltrædelsesforelæsning";"2:10 p.m. Mette Ejrnæs: ""Consumption, Marriage and Children"" 2:50 p.m. Søren Leth-Petersen: ""Housing, Consumption and Savings Behavior"" "
"Simon H. Boserup og Jori V. Pinje, University of Copenhagen: ""Tax Evasion and Optimal Auditing in the Presence of Third-Party Information""";"EPRU";"2010-10-08";"1:00pm";"2010-10-08";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"Download abstract"
"Danqing Hu, Danmarks Tekniske Universitet: ""Information Lags Induce Cycles in Congestion Games""";"Department of Economics";"2010-10-11";"3:00pm";"";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract and paper "
"Marie Gaarden Gaardmark, University of Copenhagen: ""Profit-Maximizing Pirates""";"MEHR";"2010-10-14";"3:00pm";"2010-10-14";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";" Download abstract Contact person: Paul Sharp "
"Michael Svarer, Aarhus Universitet";"EPRU/WEST";"2010-10-15";"01:00";"2010-10-15";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Business Cycle Dependent Unemployment Insurance"". Download abstract and paper"
"Tiltrædelsesforelæsning: Jakob R. Munch, Lars Peter Raahave Østerdal og Carl-Johan Dalgaard";"Department of Economics";"2010-11-05";"2:00pm";"2010-11-05";"";"Department of Economics, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26 (access from Gammeltoftsgade 19) Det Store Seminarrum, 2nd floor, DK-1353 Copenhagen K";"Tiltrædelsesforelæsning ";" 2:10 p.m. Jakob R. Munch: ""Globalization and Domestic Labor Market Outcomes"" 2:45 p.m. Lars Peter Raahave Østerdal: ""On Assessing Poverty, Social Welfare and Inequality"" 3:20 p.m. Carl-Johan Dalgaard: ""The Danish Growth Miracle"" 4:00 p.m. Reception in ""Glasgangen"", Building 26. "
"Boryana Madzharova, Charles University, CERGE-EI";"EPRU/WEST";"2010-11-12";"01:00";"2010-11-12";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""The effect of low corporate tax rate on payroll tax evasion"". Download abstract/paper"
"Herve Cres, Sciences Po: ""Aggregation of Multiple Prior Opinions""";"Department of Economics";"2010-11-19";"1:00pm";"2010-11-19";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract and paper "
"Jesper Bagger, Royal Holloway, University of London: ""Wage and Productivity Dispersion-the Roles of Labor Quality, Capital Intensity and Rent Sharing"".";"EPRU";"2010-11-26";"1:00pm";"2010-11-26";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Ludger Woessmann, University of Munich: ""Knocking on Heaven's Door? Protestantism and Suicide""";"MEHR";"2010-12-02";"3:00pm";"2010-12-02";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";" MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Harry Paarsch, University of Melbourne: ""The Effects of Competition on  Post-Transplant Outcomes in Cadaveric Liver Transplantation under the MELD Scoring System""";"Department of Economics";"2010-12-03";"1:00pm";"2010-12-03";"2:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract "
"James M. Snyder, Jr., Harvard University: ""Patronage and Elections in U.S. States""";"EPRU/WEST";"2010-12-06";"3:00pm";"2010-12-06";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU/WEST seminar ";"Download abstract and paper "
"Alan L. Olmstead, University of California: ""Slave Productivity in Cotton Production by Gender, Age, Season, and Scale"" ";"MEHR";"2010-12-09";"3:00pm";"2010-12-09";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";" Download abstract Contact person: Paul Sharp "
"Maria Knoth Humlum, Aarhus Universitet: ""Timing of College Enrollment and Family Formation Decisions""";"EPRU";"2010-12-10";"1:00pm";"2010-12-10";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Tommy Andersson, Lund Universitet: ""Budget-Balance, Fairness and Minimal Manipulability""";"Department of Economics";"2010-12-13";"1:00pm";"2010-12-13";"3:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, ""Mødelokalet 3rd Floor, 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Nykredit Symposium 2010 on Financial Stability and Future Financial Regulation";"The Danish Center for Accounting and Finance/FRU";"2010-12-13";"9:00am";"2010-12-13";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 34.0.01 (Christian Hansen Auditorium), 1353 Kbh K";"";"The Danish Center for Accounting and Finance announces the fourth annual Nykredit Symposium: Financial Stability and Future Financial Regulation Monday, December 13, 2010, at Christian Hansen Auditorium (CSS Building 34),University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Copenhagen. Map at samf.ku.dk/pdf/kort_css.pdf Program 09:00 – 09:05: Welcome by Professor Peter Norman Sørensen, University of Copenhagen and D-CAF 09:05 – 10:05: Professor Jean-Charles Rochet, Swiss Banking Institute, University of Zürich:A New Approach to Macroprudential Regulation 10:05 – 10:35: Associate Professor Jesper Lund, Copenhagen Business School:On the Liquidity of Danish Mortgage Bonds 10:35 – 11:00: Coffee 11:00 – 11:30: Senior Economist Jacob Gyntelberg, Bank of International Settlements:Financial Stability and Central Counterparties for OTC Derivatives –Where Do We Stand? 11:30 – 12:00: Professor Ken Bechmann, Copenhagen Business School: Corporate Governance and Risk-Taking in Danish banks: Evidence of Herding? 12:00 – 13:30: Lunch 13:30 – 14:30: Professor Mark Flannery, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida: Keeping Capital Adequate 14:30 – 15:00: Coffee 15:00 – 15:30: Director General Ulrik Nødgaard, Danish Financial Supervisory Authority:The Future of the Financial Regulation 15:30 – 16:00: Nykredit:Observations on Financial Regulation from a Practitioner’s Perspective"
"Leigh Shaw-Taylor, University of Cambridge: ""The Occupational Structure of England c.1650-1871: Work in progress""";"MEHR";"2010-12-16";"3:00pm";"2010-12-16";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"MEHR seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Juan D. Moreno-Ternero, Universidad de Malaga, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, and CORE, Universite catholique de Louvain: ""A common ground for resource and welfare egalitarianism""";"Department of Economics";"2011-01-05";"1:00pm";"2011-01-05";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"";"Download abstract/paper "
"Fabrizio Zilibotti, University of Zurich: ""Chinese Pension Reform in the Face of Demographic Transition and Financial Imperfections""";"Department of Economics";"2011-01-20";"10:00am";"2011-01-20";"11:15am";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20 / Lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";""
"Hans Keiding, University of Copenhagen: ""Shapley values for simple games and effectivity functions""";"Department of Economics";"2011-01-24";"3:00pm";"2011-01-24";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract Contact person: Tobias Markeprand "
"Chiara Binelli, Nuffield College and Oxford University";"EPRU";"2011-01-28";"01:00";"2011-01-28";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""The Market Returns to Private High Schools: Evidence from Mexico"". Download abstract Contact person: David Dreyer Lassen"
"Nordic Workshop on Tax Policy and Public Economics";"Department of Economics";"2011-01-28";"8:00am";"2011-01-29";"6:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Workshop ";" Download program Contact person: Tine Ceccardi "
"Michael Stimmelmayr, University of Münich: ""Taxation of MNEs in the Presence of Internal Capital Markets""";"EPRU";"2011-02-25";"1:00pm";"2011-02-25";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Michael Bergman, University of Copenhagen: ""Budget Consolidations in the Aftermath of a Financial Crisis:Lessons from the Swedish Budget Consolidation 1994–1997""";"EPRU";"2011-03-04";"1:00pm";"2011-03-04";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract/paper "
"Niels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2011-03-11";"01:00";"2011-03-11";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""Strategic Line Drawing between Debt and Equity"". Download paper"
"Robert Klemmensen, Syddansk Universitet: ""Attitudes toward Immigration: The Role of Personal Predispositions""";"EPRU/WEST";"2011-03-25";"1:00pm";"2011-03-25";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Joachim Wehner, LSE";"EPRU/WEST";"2011-04-01";"01:00";"2011-04-01";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Electoral Budget Cycles in the EMU: An Empirical Challenge to Context Conditionality"". Download paper"
"Christian Heebøll-Christensen, Københavns Universitet: ""Financial Instability, Credit Cycles and Monetary Policy""";"EPRU";"2011-04-15";"1:00pm";"2011-04-15";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract/paper "
"Clifford Winston, Brookings Institution: ""Duopoly Equilibrium over Time""";"EPRU";"2011-04-29";"1:00pm";"2011-04-29";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar ";"Download abstract/paper "
"2nd Workshop on Growth, History and Development";"Department of Economics ";"2011-04-29";"9:00am";"2011-04-29";"4:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"Workshop ";"Download programme "
"Claus Bjørn Jørgensen, University of Copenhagen: ”Predicting Lotto Numbers”";"EPRU";"2011-05-27";"01:00";"2011-05-27";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";""
"Fratrædelsesforelæsning: Jørgen Birk Mortensen";"Department of Economics";"2011-06-08";"3:00pm";"2011-06-08";"";"Alexandersalen, Bispetorv Annekset, Bispetorvet 1-3, 1167 København K";"Fratrædelsesforelæsning ";"Lektor Jørgen Birk Mortensen fylder 70 og fratræder sin stilling som lektor pÃ¥ Økonomisk Institut. "
"Martin Dufwenberg, University of Arizona and University of Gothenburg: ""Participation""";"Department of Economics";"2011-06-09";"11:00am";"2011-06-09";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Download abstract Contact person: Lars Peter Østerdal "
"Richard Upward, University of Nottingham: ""Quantity Restrictions and Price Adjustment of Chinese Textile Exports to the US""";"EPRU";"2011-06-10";"1:00pm";"2011-06-10";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"";"Download abstract "
"Zwi Hercowitz, Tel-Aviv University";"EPRU";"2011-06-14";"01:00";"2011-06-14";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""The Financial Labor Supply Accelerator"". Download paper"
"EPRN conference: ""UDFORDRINGER FOR DANSK ØKONOMI"", June 16 and 17, 2011";"EPRN";"2011-06-16";"";"2011-06-17";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 1.1.18), 1353 Kbh K";" EPRN conference ";"Download programme "
"Research Workshop: ""Stabilization Policies"", 17-18 June 2011";"The Danish Microeconometric Network, EPRN and the EPRU/WEST research unit.";"2011-06-17";"8:30am";"2011-06-18";"12:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 1.1.18), 1353 Kbh K";"Research workshop ";"Download programme "
"Kevin Hoover, Duke University: ""Observing shocks"" ";"Department of Economics";"2011-08-30";"1:00pm";"2011-08-30";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Rune Midjord, University of the Basque Country: ""Can increased competition for jobs explain interview lying?""";"Department of Economics";"2011-09-01";"1:00pm";"2011-09-01";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen "
"Gabriel Zucman, Paris School of Economics: ""The Missing Wealth of Nations: are Europe and the U.S. Net Debtors or Net Creditors?""";"EPRU/WEST";"2011-09-02";"1:00pm";"2011-09-02";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU/WEST seminar ";"Download abstract "
"David Frankel: Securitization, Signalling, and Interbank Competition""";"Department of economics";"2011-09-05";"03:00";"2011-09-05";"04:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar";"Download abstract Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"European Trade Study Group (ETSG) conference";"";"2011-09-08";"";"2011-09-10";"";"";"Department of Economics and CBS are hosting the annual ETSG conference September 8th-10th";"Department of Economics and CBS are hosting the annual European Trade Study Group (ETSG) conference September 8th-10th. For more information about the conference program and venue see:"
"Johannes Abeler, Oxford University: ""Preferences for truth-telling""";"Department of Economics";"2011-09-12";"3:00pm";"2011-09-12";"4:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";"Download abstract "
"Tibor Besedes: ""Export Growth and Credit Constraints”";"EPRU";"2011-09-14";"1:30pm";"2011-09-14";"3:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";""
"Kelly Ragan, Stockholm School of Economics: ""How Powerful Was the Pill? Quantifying a Contraceptive Technology Shock"" ";"EPRU";"2011-09-23";"1:00pm";"2011-09-23";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"";"Download abstract "
"Kim Abildgren, Nationalbanken: EPRU Policy Seminar: ""Realøkonomiske konsekvenser af finanskriser""";"EPRU";"2011-09-30";"01:00";"2011-09-30";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU Policy seminar";""
"Juanna Joenson, Stockholm School of Economics";"EPRU";"2011-10-07";"01:00";"2011-10-07";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""Timing and Incentives: Impacts of Student Aid on Academic Achievement"". Download paper"
"Signe Krogstrup, Swiss National Bank";"EPRU";"2011-10-14";"01:00";"2011-10-14";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""Liquidity Effects at the Zero Lower Bound"". Download abstract"
"Mette Foged, University of Copenhagen: ""Wage Effects of International Return Migration""";"EPRU";"2011-10-28";"1:00pm";"2011-10-28";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Rasmus Jørgensen";"Department of Economics";"2011-11-02";"5:00pm";"2011-11-02";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD forsvar";"Rasmus Jørgensen: ""Essays in International Trade"" PhD thesis"
"Nicolai Kaarsen, UCPH";"Department of Economics";"2011-11-11";"01:00";"2011-11-11";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Cross-Country Differences in the Quality of Human Capital"". Download paper"
"Fredrik Sjöholm fra Lunds Universitet: ""Globalization and imperfect labor market sorting""";"EPRU";"2011-11-18";"1:00pm";"2011-11-18";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Peter Birch Sørensen, University of Copenhagen: ""Measuring the deadweight loss from taxation in a small open economy"" ";"EPRU";"2011-11-25";"1:00pm";"2011-11-25";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Jeanet Sinding Bentzen";"Department of Economics";"2011-11-25";"4:00pm";"2011-11-25";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (18.01.11), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";"Jeanet Sinding Bentzen: “Why are some countries richer than others? Cross-country and cross-regional empirical studies” Read Jeanet's abstract"
"Nicolai Kaarsen";"Department of Economics";"2011-12-02";"10:00am";"2011-12-02";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";"Nicolai Kaarsen: ""Essays in Economic Growth"""
"Niels Johannesen, University of Copenhagen: ""The End of Banking Secrecy? An Evaluation of the OECD Transparency Initiative""";"EPRU";"2011-12-02";"1:00pm";"2011-12-02";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar ";""
"Christopher Ksoll, Center for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), Department of Economics and Nuffield College, University of Oxford: ""Can Mobile Phones Improve Learning? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Niger""";"Department of Economics";"2011-12-06";"15:00";"2011-12-06";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";" Department seminar ";" Download paper "
"Sanne Hiller fra Århus Universitet: ""Immigration and the Product Margins of International Trade""";"EPRU";"2011-12-09";"12:00am";"2011-12-09";"1:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Inaugural Workshop";"Department of Economics";"2011-12-15";"9:30am";"2011-12-16";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Workshop";"Read more about Inaugural Workshop for the Copenhagen Center for Computational Social Science Contact person: David Dreyer Lassen"
"Alejandro Riano, University of Nottingham: ""Maquiladoras and informality: a mixed blessing""";"EPRU";"2011-12-16";"1:00pm";"2011-12-16";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar ";"Download paper "
"Herbert Hamers CentER and Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University: ""Game theoretic centrality analysis of terrorist networks""";"Department of Economics";"2011-12-20";"1:00pm";"2011-12-20";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract Contact person: Trine Tornøe Platz "
"Monique Newiak, University of Washington and LMU Munich: ""Imitation and Innovation Driven Development under Imperfect Intellectual Property Rights""";"Department of Economics";"2012-01-18";"1:00pm";"2012-01-18";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Helene Lundqvist, Stockholm University: ""Is It Worth It? On the Returns to Holding Political Office”";"Department of Economics";"2012-01-20";"1:00pm";"2012-01-20";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Lisandra Flach, University of Mannheim: ""Quality Upgrading and Price Heterogeneity: Evidence from Brazilian Exporters""";"Department of Economics";"2012-01-24";"1:00pm";"2012-01-24";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Jakob R. Munch "
"Plamen Nenov, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: ""Labor Market and Regional Reallocation Effects of Housing Busts""";"Department of Economics";"2012-01-25";"2:00pm";"2012-01-25";"3:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Shin Kanaya, University of Oxford, “A Nonparametric Test for Stationarity in Continuous-Time Markov Processes”";"Department of Economics";"2012-01-27";"1:00pm";"2012-01-27";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";" Download paper "
"Daniel Wilhelm, University of Chicago: ""Identication and Estimation of Nonparametric Panel Data Regressions with Measurement Error""";"Department of Economics";"2012-02-02";"1:00pm";"2012-02-02";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Heino Bohn Nielsen "
"Christoph Schottmüller, University of Tilburg: ""Adverse selection without single crossing""";"Department of Economics";"2012-02-03";"1:00pm";"2012-02-03";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Peter N. Sørensen "
"Andrea Tesei, Universitat Pompeu Fabra: ""Racial Fragmentation, Income Inequality and Social Capital Formation: New Evidence from the US""";"Department of Economics";"2012-02-07";"12:45pm";"2012-02-07";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Departmen seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Carl-Johan Dalgaard "
"Asger Moll Wingender, University of Copenhagen: ""Skill Complementarity and the Dual Economy""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-02-10";"1:00pm";"";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar ";"Download paper "
"Arnab Nayak Auburn University: ""Home Market Effect and its Extensive and Intensive Margins: The Role of Factor Endowments""";"Department of Economics";"2012-02-13";"1:00pm";"2012-02-13";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";"Download paper "
"Martin Ljunge, University of Copenhagen: ""Trust Issues: Evidence from Second Generation Immigrants"" ";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-02-17";"1:00pm";"2012-02-17";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar ";"Link to paper "
"Paul Kramp, Nationalbanken: ""Differences across countries in household wealth, debt and savings""";"EPRU";"2012-02-24";"1:00pm";"2012-02-24";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU Policy seminar ";"Download paper "
"Marc Patrick Brag Klemp, University of Copenhagen: ""The Child Quantity-Quality Trade-Off during the Industrial Revolution in England""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-03-02";"1:00pm";"2012-03-02";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar ";"Download paper "
"Jori Pinje, University of Copenhagen: ";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-03-09";"13:00";"2012-03-09";"14:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Tax- and Wage-Induced Migration of Skilled Labor: A Micro-Data Study of the European Labor Market for Professional Footballers"" Abstract The literature on tax competition/arbitrage explores the extent to which tax-induced mobility of assets and activities, in the context of open borders, undermines national tax bases. Whereas such consequences are relatively well established for capital and corporate income, the evidence is scarce and mixed with respect to individual earnings (Genschel and Schwarz, 2011).Due to the scarcity of cross-country skilled labor micro-data, this paper takes an unorthodox approach and investigates individual mobility using as a laboratory a large panel of professional football players in 30 countries on the European continent in the period 1999-2010. I estimate a polychotomous choice model, focusing on mobility induced by, on one side, individual and country level variation in earnings and income tax treatment and, on the other side, disincentives due to geographical distance, cross-border mobility restrictions. Identification of tax-induced mobility is generated by extensive variation in preferential tax schemes and general tax reforms and the effect of cross-border mobility restrictions by the complex and time-varying transitional restrictions imposed between old and new EU countries following the enlargements of 2004 and 2007."
"Christoffer Sonne-Schmidt";"Department of Economics";"2012-03-09";"2:00pm";"2012-03-09";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defense";"Christoffer Sonne-Schmidt: ”Wearing Glasses during Classes”."
"Thomas Jensen, University of Copenhagen: ""National Responses to Transnational Terrorism: Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism Provision""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-03-16";"01:00";"2012-03-16";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download abstract"
"3rd Workshop on Growth, History and Development";"Department of Economics";"2012-03-19";"9:00am";"2012-03-19";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Workshop";"Download program"
"Daniel Waldenström, Uppsala University";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-03-23";"01:00";"2012-03-23";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"”Lifetime versus Annual Tax Progressivity: Sweden, 1968–2009”. Download paper"
"Joseph Abdou, University of Paris: ""Stability Index for political mechanisms""";"Department of Economics";"2012-03-29";"01:00";"2012-03-29";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download abstract Contact person: Hans Keiding"
"Lars Lund, Copenhagen Business School: “Greenland’s macroeconomic situation”";"EPRU POLICY";"2012-03-30";"1:00pm";"2012-03-30";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU policy seminar";"Download abstract"
"Trine Tornøe Platz";"Department of Economics";"2012-04-12";"1:00pm";"2012-04-12";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defense";"Trine Tornøe Platz: ""Essays in Cooperative Game Theory"" PhD thesis"
"Håkan Selin, Uppsala University: ""Bunching and Non-Bunching at Kink Points of the Swedish Tax schedule""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-04-13";"12:00am";"2012-04-13";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Link to paper "
"Andrea Ichino, Bologna University: ""When the baby cries at night. Uninformed and hurried buyers in non-competitive markets""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-04-19";"1:00pm";"2012-04-19";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar ";" Download paper Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner "
"Mette Ejrnæs, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-04-20";"01:00";"2012-04-20";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Is Business Failure Due to Lack of Effort? Empirical Evidence from a Large Administrative Sample"". Download paper"
"Michael Lovenheim, Cornell University";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-04-27";"1:00pm";"2012-04-27";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar: ""Incentive Strength and Teacher Productivity: Evidence from a Group-Based Teacher Incentive Pay System""";"Incentive Strength and Teacher Productivity: Evidence from a Group-Based Teacher Incentive Pay SystemScott A. Imberman∗University of Houston and NBERMichael F. LovenheimCornell UniversityApril 2012 ***PRELIMINARY AND INCOMPLETE******EMBARGOED******DO NOT CITE OR DISSEMINATE WITHOUT AUTHORS’ PERMISSION*** Abstract We use data from a group-based teacher incentive program implemented in high schools in an a large urban school district to estimate the impact of incentive strength on student outcomes. The program provides cash bonuses to teachers who are in schools where students perform well on achievement exams as measured by a value-added model. Unlike other incentive programs, these awards are based on the performances of students within a grade, school and subject, providing much more variation in group size than awards based on the performances of all students in a school. We use the share of students in a grade-subject that a teacher has in his or her classes as a proxy for incentive strength since, as the student share increases, a teacher’s impact on the probability of award receipt rises. Hence, if teachers respond to the award incentive we should expect to see their students’ achievement improve as the teacher becomes responsible for more students. Indeed, this is what we find. Overall, difference-in-differences estimates show that a 10 percentage point increase in student share increases math, English and social studies scores by 0.01 to 0.02 standard deviations. However, we also find evidence of heterogeneity by share. Local linear regressions show that a similar increase in share for teachers who are responsible for only a handful of students improves achievement by 0.05 to 0.09  in all subjects with the effects fading out to zero as share increases. These findings suggest that small groups that provide teachers with larger shares of the responsibility for awards provide productivity gains over large groups with an optimal group size of around 3 to 5 teachers (20% to 33% share for each teacher). Further, our results suggest that the lack of effects found in US teacher incentive pay experiments are probably due to specific aspects of program design rather than failure of teachers to respond to incentives more generally. KEYWORDS:JEL CLASSIFICATION: ∗Add acknowledgments."
"Philipp Wichardt, University of Bonn: ""Minimum Participation Rules for the Provision of Public Goods""";"Department of Economics";"2012-04-30";"3:00pm";"2012-04-30";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar ";" Download abstract Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen "
"Shiko Maruyama, University of New South Wales: ""Externality and Strategic Interaction in the Location Choice of Siblings under Altruism toward Parents""";"Department of Economics";"2012-05-02";"2:00pm";"";"3:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Contact person: Bertel Schjerning Download abstract"
"Charles Bellemare, Université Laval: ""Measuring Ratchet Effects within a Firm: Evidence from a Field Experiment varying Contractual Commitment""";"Department of Economics";"2012-05-07";"03:00";"2012-05-07";"04:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Contact person: Alexander Sebald"
"Martin Ljunge, University of Copenhagen: ""Banfield or Wilson? Evidence on Family Ties and Civic Virtues""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-05-11";"01:00";"2012-05-11";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download abstract"
"Zeuthen Lectures 2012 #1";"Økonomisk Institut";"2012-05-22";"14:15";"2012-05-22";"16:00";"Chr. Hansen Auditoriet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Kbh. K.";"Zeuthen Lecture with Professor Daron Acemoglu, MIT - Succes and Failure of Nations - Introductory lecture: Institutional Bottlenecks and Economic Development.";"Zeuthen Lecture with Professor Daron Acemoglu, MIT - Succes and Failure of Nations - Introductory lecture: Institutional Bottlenecks and Economic Development Introductory Lecture : Institutional Bottlenecks and Economic Development (Themes discussed: institutional perspective on the success and failure of nations; why dysfunctional institutions emerge and persist; why institutions get captured and may become more dysfunctional over time). Tuesday, 22 May 2012, 14:15 - 16:00: Chr. Hansen Aud. See more about the Zeuthen Lectures here"
"Zeuthen Lectures 2012 # 2";"Økonomisk Institut";"2012-05-23";"10:00";"2012-05-23";"12:00";"Det Store Auditorium, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21";"Zeuthen Lecture with Professor Daron Acemoglu, MIT - Succes and Failure of Nations - Lecture 2: Modeling Inefficient Institutions";"Zeuthen Lecture with Professor Daron Acemoglu, MIT - Succes and Failure of Nations - Lecture 2: Modeling Inefficient Institutions Lecture 2 : Modeling Inefficient Institutions (themes discussed: why inefficient arrangements are chosen, and why the desire to manipulate factor prices and/or future political power leads to the emergence of more inefficient and distortionary institutions). Wednesday, 23 May 2012, 10:00 - 12:00: Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal, 26.2.21 See more about the Zeuthen Lectures here."
"Zeuthen Lectures 2012 # 3";"Økonomisk Institut";"2012-05-23";"14:00";"2012-05-23";"16:00";"Det Store Auditorium, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21";"Zeuthen Lecture with Professor Daron Acemoglu, MIT - Succes and Failure of Nations - Lecture 3: Oligarchies and Economic Development";"Zeuthen Lecture with Professor Daron Acemoglu, MIT - Succes and Failure of Nations - Lecture 3 : Oligarchies and Economic Development (Themes discussed: how oligarchic structures may first encourage economic growth but then become a barrier to further development; the role of elites in politics and economics; how oligarchs and elites can capture democracies; and applications to the role of finance in modern economies). Wednesday, 23 May 2012, 14:00 - 16:00: Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal, 26.2.21 See more about the Zeuthen Lectures here."
"Zeuthen Lectures 2012 # 4";"Økonomisk Institut";"2012-05-24";"10:00";"2012-05-24";"12:00";"Det Store Auditorium, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21";"Zeuthen Lecture with Professor Daron Acemoglu, MIT - Succes and Failure of Nations - Lecture 4 : Rent Seeking, State Collapse and Civil War";"Zeuthen Lecture with Professor Daron Acemoglu, MIT - Succes and Failure of Nations - Lecture 4 : Rent Seeking, State Collapse and Civil War Lecture 4 : Rent Seeking, State Collapse and Civil War (themes discussed: how fear from state power keeps many societies in an equilibrium with few public goods; how infighting among oligarchs and elites can lead to state collapse; and how civil wars and other destructive conflicts may last). Thursday, 24 May 2012, 10:00 - 12:00: Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal, 26.2.21 See more about the Zeuthen Lectures here."
"Zeuthen Workshop 2012";"Department of Economics";"2012-05-24";"Thursday 12:00pm - 7:00pm ";"2012-05-25";"Friday 9:00am - 12:35pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Workshop";""
"Peer Skov, Rockwoolfondens Forskningsenhed og Københavns Universitet: ""Intertemporal Income Shifting and the Danish 2010 Tax Reform""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-05-25";"1:00pm";"2012-05-25";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download abstract"
"Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, Universidad Adolfo Ibañez, Argentina: ""Economic and Politico-Economic Equivalence of Fiscal Policies""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-06-01";"1:00pm";"2012-06-01";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download paper"
"Katarina Juselius, University of Copenhagen: ""The Economic Crisis: The Crisis of Economics?""";"Department of Economics";"2012-06-06";"2:00pm";"2012-06-06";"3:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download abstract Contact person: Katarina Juselius"
"Teodora Borota, Uppsala";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-06-07";"01:00";"2012-06-07";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Welfare Effects of IPR Policy in a North-South Trade Model"". Download paper Contact person: Daniel Nguyen"
"EPRN konference: ""Udfordringer i dansk økonomisk politik""";"EPRN";"2012-06-08";"9:00am";"2012-06-08";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale: 1.1.18), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRN konference";"Download programme Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner"
"EPRN conference: ""Education and Challenges for Fiscal Policy in EU and the US""";"EPRN";"2012-06-14";"12:00";"2012-06-14";"05:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale: 1.1.18), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRN conference";"Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner"
"James Robinson, Harvard University";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-06-20";"01:00";"2012-06-20";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Can't We All Be More Like Scandinavians?"" Contact person: Pablo Selaya Download paper"
"Ferdinand Rauch, London School of Economics: ""The Division of Labor in U.S. Cities 1880-2000""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-06-22";"1:00pm";"2012-06-22";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download abstract"
"Tænketanken Kraka og forskningsnetværket EPRN indbyder alle interesserede til et fælles seminar om samfundsøkonomisk projektvurdering. ";"EPRN/Tænketanken Kraka";"2012-08-31";"1:00pm";"2012-08-31";"3:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (Seminarlokalet 3. sal), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRN seminar";"Download abstract"
"Lukas Inderbitzin, University of St. Gallen";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-09-07";"01:00";"2012-09-07";"02:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Extended Unemployment Benefits and Early Retirement: Program Complementarity and Program Substitution"". Download paper"
"Robert Hetzel, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: ""ECB Monetary Policy in the Great Recession: A Critical Monetarist Overview""";"Department of Economics";"2012-09-18";"03:00";"2012-09-18";"04:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Link to papers: ""ECB Monetary Policy in the Great Recession: A Critical Monetarist Overview""""Does Monetarism Retain Relevance?"" Contact person: Henrik Jensen"
"Jeanet Bentzen, University of Copenhagen: ""Irrigation and Autocracy""";"EPRU";"2012-09-21";"1:00pm";"2012-09-21";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Kevin Hoover, Duke University : ""Was Harrod Right?""";"Department of Economics";"2012-09-27";"03:00";"2012-09-27";"04:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Contact person: Katarina Juselius"
"Johannes Jansen, Univesität Köln: ""Share to Scare: Technology in the Absence of Intellectual Property Rights""";"Department of Economics";"2012-09-27";"1:00pm";"2012-09-27";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper Contact person: Christian Schultz"
"Paul Schweinzer, University of York: ""Efficient Emissions Reduction in Redistributive Agreements""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-09-28";"1:00pm";"2012-09-28";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST";"Download paper"
"Katariina Nilsson-Hakkala fra Government Institute for Economic Research: ""Multinationals, Competition and Productivity Spillovers through Worker Mobility""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-10-05";"1:00pm";"2012-10-05";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST";"Download abstract Download paper"
"Alexander Koch, University of Aarhus: ""Goals and Mental Accounting""";"Department of Economics";"2012-10-08";"3:00pm";"2012-10-08";"4:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Institut seminar";"Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf"
"Anders Bruun Jonassen, SFI: ""The Ins and Outs of Disincentive Effects of Social Assistance: An RD Approach with Panel Data""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-10-12";"1:00pm";"2012-10-12";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download abstract"
"Karin Olofsdotter, University of Lund: ""Markups and export-pricing strategies""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-10-19";"01:00";"2012-10-19";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Johan Lagerlöf, University of Copenhagen: ""Discrimination in a Strategic World""";"Department of Economics";"2012-10-22";"15:00";"";"16:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, (lokale 26.1.21B)";"Department seminar";""
"Martin Ellison, University of Oxford: Optimal policy behind a ""Veil of Ignorance""";"Department of Economics";"2012-10-31";"3:00pm";"2012-10-31";"4:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Christoph Schottmüller, University of Copenhagen: ""Procurement with specialized firms""";"Department of Economics";"2012-11-05";"15:00";"";"16.15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, (lokale 26.2.20)";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Miriam Gensowski, University of Chicago: ""Personality, IQ, and Lifetime Earnings""";"EPRN/WEST";"2012-11-09";"12:45pm";"2012-11-09";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Contact person: David Dreyer Lassen"
"Christian Gormsen, Paris School of Economics: ""Diasporas and Foreign Direct Investments""";"EPRU";"2012-11-16";"1:00pm";"2012-11-16";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper Contact person: Jakob Roland Munch"
"Roberta Distante";"Department of Economics";"2012-11-19";"13:30";"2012-11-19";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26.2.21";"Forsvar for erhvervelse af ph.d.-graden i økonomi ved Roberta Distante.";"Roberta Distante: ""Heterogeneity and Relative Concerns. Three Essays in Applied Economics"". Defence of PhD thesis by Roberta Distante. The present PhD thesis is made of three self-contained chapters in the form of scholarly articles. The first chapter uses micro-data for the British Household Panel Survey to shed light on the role of absolute and relative income for self-reported individual well-being. We estimate a heteroskedastic pooled panel ordered probit model with unobserved individual-specific effects. The study shows that absolute income exerts an effect of the same sign on happiest and least happy individuals, while relative income influences all happiness categories the same way, though with different intensity. These findings provide stronger evidence on the importance of relative concerns for subjective well-being. In the second chapter we analyze the importance of social ties for eating behavior of the young in the US, devising a dynamic framework for overcoming the problem of identifying social endogenous effects. Estimating a dynamic linear-in-means model of social interactions by system GMM, we show that the main drivers of eating behavior are habituation and social effects. Furthermore, we analyze eating behavioral patterns from adolescence to adulthood, showing that obese teenagers become obese adults enforcing their wrong habits with imitative behavior. For adults who were normal-weight and overweight during adolescence, instead, the role of peers at school has a crucial importance for their current Body Mass Index. The third chapter develops an approach for making welfare comparisons between populations with multidimensional discrete well-being indicators observed at the micro-level. It introduces a feasible algorithm for multivariate first order dominance and employs a bootstrap approach for ranking populations cardinally. We apply these techniques to analyze the distribution and evolution of child poverty in Vietnam and Mozambique through space and time. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut."
"Mie Sonne La Cour, University of Copenhagen: ""Personality and conflict in principal-agent relations based on subjective performance evaluations""";"Department of Economics";"2012-11-19";"3:00pm";"2012-11-19";"4:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.3.24), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Katarina Juselius, University of Copenhagen: ""Balance sheet recessions and time-varying coefficients in a Phillips curve relationship: An application to Finnish data""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-11-23";"1:00pm";"2012-11-23";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Ferdinand von Siemens";"Department of Economics";"2012-11-26";"15:00";"2012-11-26";"16:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26.2.21";" ""Allocation of Authority and Project Implementation: Do Procedural Concerns Matter?"". Department seminar. ";" ""Allocation of Authority and Project Implementation: Do Procedural Concerns Matter?"" "
"Essays on Labor Supply and Health";"Department of Economics";"2012-11-29";"16:00";"2012-11-29";"19:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26.2.21";"Forsvar for erhvervelsen af ph.d.-graden i økonomi ved Michael Jørgensen";" This dissertation is comprised of three self-contained chapters in applied micro-econometrics. All three chapters use Danish register data to answer empirical questions within the topics of labor supply and health. Health, Disability Insurance, and Retirement in Denmark The aim of the first paper is twofold. First to measure the effects of pension program provisions on retirement age controlling for health based on register and SHARE health data and secondly to assess the importance of the disability insurance program for retirement controlling for health. A 1999 pension reform rolled out through 2006 brought the largest changes to Danish retirement incentives in 20 years. Early retirement for the insured was made less generous, old age pension age was reduced, and disability insurance awards became more stringent. We characterize each of these changes using an option value model for the most important routes to retirement. Controlling for health, greater stringency in awarding disability insurance has modest effects on retirement, whereas reforms to incentives in an early retirement program had large effects on retirement age, probably due to the relative magnitudes of the reforms. How Does a Health Shock to Self or Partner Affect Economic Incentives to Retire? The second paper exploits rich administrative data to analyze how a health shock to one-self or one’s partner affects the marginal economic incentive to retire. One important challenge when trying to get unbiased estimates of the effect of health on retirement is the endogenous character of the relationship between health and retirement. To circumvent this endogeneity, the paper exploits a 1999 reform of an early retirement program and the arguably unanticipated timing of a health shock. The main conclusions are that economic incentives have strong effects on retirement for both men and women, but that those who receive a health shock are much less responsive to economic incentives. A comparison of men’s and women’s responses finds no differences in men and women’s marginal responses to economic incentives due to a health shock to their partners–only when the health shock hits themselves, then women react much stronger than men in their reduction to the economic incentive. Can we reform Disability Insurance and increase labor supply? The third paper investigate the effects of attempts to mitigate moral hazard in the DI program by raising the stringency of the screening process for applicants. We measure the effect on DI awards and labor supply of two DI reforms that took place in Denmark during the 1990s: (1) state audits of local awards, (2) reduction in state rebates to local authorities for DI awards to applicants aged 60-66. Benefit generosity at the individual level remained unchanged throughout the estimation period, keeping economic incentive effects stable. State audits of local county boards showed that almost no counties awarded too few DI pensions according to the state audit board, whereas many awarded too many, and when these high awarding counties were audited, they increased rejection rates the following year by on average 21%. Reduced state rebates to municipalities for DI awards for those aged 60-66 increased rejection rates by 5 percentage points for this age group compared to those aged < 60. Instrumental variables estimates show that a 10% rise in rejection rates leads to a 6.4% increase in labor supply."
"Michael Bang Petersen, Aarhus University: ""The Ancestral Logic of Politics: Biological Evolution and Political Decisions""";"EPRU/WEST";"2012-11-30";"1:00pm";"2012-11-30";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download abstractContact person: David Dreyer-Lassen"
"Georg Kirchsteiger: Learning and Market Clearing: Theory and Experiments";"Department of Economics";"2012-12-03";"15:00";"2012-12-03";"16.15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, (lokale 26.1.21B)";"Department seminar";"Abstract: This paper investigates theoretically and experimentally whether traders learn to use market-clearing trading institutions or whether other (inefficient) market institutions can survive in the long run. Using a framework with boundedly rational traders, we find that market clearing institutions are always stable under a general class of learning dynamics. However, we show that there exist other, non-market clearing institutions that are also stable. Therefore, in the long run traders may fail to coordinate exclusively on market clearing institutions. The theoretical predictions were confirmed in a series of platform choice experiments. Specifically, traders coordinated on platforms predicted to be stable, including market-clearing as well as non-market clearing ones, while platforms predicted to be unstable were avoided in the long run."
"Ernst Fehr, University of Zürich: Use and Abuse of Authority. ""A Behavioral Foundation of the Employment Relation""";"Department of Economics";"2012-12-06";"01:00";"2012-12-06";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";""
"Johannes Lindvall, Lunds Universitet: ""The Origins of primary Education Regimes""";"EPRN/WEST";"2012-12-07";"1:00pm";"2012-12-07";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRN/WEST";"Download paperContact person: David Dreyer Lassen"
"Alexander Sebald, University of Copenhagen: ""Measuring nonlinear and heterogeneous guilt aversion""";"Department of Economics";"2012-12-10";"3:00pm";"2012-12-10";"4:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Abstract Recent experiments suggest that people’s preferences not only depend on their choices but also on their beliefs of other people’s choices and on their beliefs of other people’s beliefs. Guilt aversion is such belief-dependent preference that has received a lot of attention recently. An individual is considered to be guilt averse if he gets a negative utility from failing to live up to the beliefs of others. Typically, the sensitivity to guilt of a certain individual is taken to be constant, which implies that guilt aversion is linearly increasing in the shortfall between an individual’s second-order belief of another’s payoff and the latter’s actual payoff. We design experiments in order to test whether guilt aversion is indeed a linear function or has another functional shape. Specifically, we characterize the shape of the guilt aversion function at the individual level. In our experiment we let subjects play binary dictator games in which the dictator chooses between a cooperative choice and a selfish choice. The “responder” is asked for his belief about the move of the dictator, and the dictator is elicited his second-order-belief-dependent strategy. Particularly, for all potential “responder” levels of beliefs, the dictator is asked whether to make the cooperative choice or the nice choice. This method allows measuring guilt sensitivity at the individual level and - given that each individual makes choices for three decision situations that would result in the same guilt sensitivity under the hypotheses the guilt aversion function is linear - allows identifying the guilt aversion function at the individual level. Our experiment also includes control treatments in order to check whether the strategy elicitation method does not lead to different types of behavior and beliefs as the direct-response method. Our experimental results suggest there is a considerable amount of heterogeneity across individuals."
"IRUC Workshop";"Department of Economics";"2012-12-17";"9:00am";"2012-12-17";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Workshop";"Contact person: Bertel Schjerning"
" Nicholas Vikander, School of Economics, University of Edinburgh: ""Advertising to Status-Conscious Consumers""";"Department of Economics";"2013-01-16";"1:00pm";"2013-01-16";"2:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download abstract"
"Baptiste Massenot, University of Lausanne: ""Safety Traps""";"Department of Economics";"2013-01-18";"01:00";"2013-01-18";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Departement seminar";""
"Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, University of Oxford: ""Towards a Theory of Trade Finance""";"Department of Economics";"2013-01-21";"1:00pm";"2013-01-21";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Marit Hinnosaar, Northwestern University: ""Time Inconsistency and Alcohol Sales Restrictions""";"Department of Economics";"2013-01-22";"1:00pm";"2013-01-22";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Nikolaj Harmon, Princeton University: ""Are Workers Better Matched in Large Labor Markets?""";"Department of Economics";"2013-01-23";"1:00pm";"2013-01-23";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Workshop on Public Economics";"WEST";"2013-01-24";"8:00am";"2013-01-24";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"WEST workshop";"Contact persons: Claus Thustrup Kreiner and Niels Johannsen Download program"
"Perry Mehrling, INET / Colombia University: ""Financial Globalization and Instability""";"Department of Economics";"2013-01-28";"5:00pm";"2013-01-28";"6:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download abstract"
"Remi Piatek, University of Chicago: ""Bayesian Dedicated Factor Analysis: A Framework for Understanding the Social and Economic Determinants of Adult Health and Wages""";"Department of Economics";"2013-01-30";"1:00pm";"2013-01-30";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";""
"Paul Bingley, SFI: ""Alike in Many Ways: Intergenerational and Sibling Correlations of Brothers&#8217; Earnings""";"EPRU";"2013-02-01";"1:00pm";"2013-02-01";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner"
"James Henry, The Tax Justice Network: ""The Trouble with Tax Havens""";"Department of Economics";"2013-02-05";"3:00pm";"2013-02-05";"4:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/policy seminar";"James S. Henry, lead researcher at the Tax Justice Network and former chief economist for McKinsey & Co, is visiting Copenhagen to discuss tax evasion based on his work in the Tax Justice Network which was launched in the British Houses of Parliament in March 2003. In his seminar he will present a summary of his recent research on odious finance, the size and growth of ""hidden"" offshore private wealth, MNC transfer pricing, tax haven dodging abuses, and global tax competition. He argues that the issue of offshore or ‘missing’ wealth is more pressing than ever and that the implication of this “missing” wealth on economic development and global inequality is large and weighs heavily on low and middle income countries in particular. In a report released in June 2012, titled The Price of Offshore Revisited (pdf 676 KB), the Tax Justice Network estimated unreported private financial wealth owned by wealthy individuals held in tax havens was at least $21 trillion at the end of 2010, a sum equivalent to the size of the United States and Japanese economies combined."
"Jonathan S. Feinstein, Yale School of Management";"Department of Economics";"2013-03-08";"13:00";"2013-03-08";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"""Creating Fields: Learning, Creativity Generation, Paths of Development"". Department seminar";" ""Creating Fields: Learning, Creativity Generation, Paths of Development"" Contact person: Peter Birch-Sørensen"
"Jori Veng Pinje";"Department of Economics";"2013-03-08";"3:00pm";"2013-03-08";"   ";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";"Jori Veng Pinje, University of Copenhagen: ""Dodging Taxes. Essays on Tax Evasion and the International Labor Mobility of Football Players"" PhD thesis"
"Simon Anderson, University of Virginia: ""Media market concentration, advertising levels, and ad prices""";"Department of Economics";"2013-03-12";"12:15pm";"2013-03-12";"1:30pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";"Download paper Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf"
"Peter Norman Sørensen, University of Copenhagen: ""Strategic Research Bias""";"Department of Economics";"2013-03-14";"01:30";"2013-03-14";"02:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";""
"Michele Valsecchi: ""Land Property Rights and International Migration: Evidence from Mexico""";"Department of Economics";"2013-03-18";"3:30pm";"2013-03-18";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Gabriel Zucman";"EPRU/WEST";"2013-03-22";"01:00";"2013-03-22";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries, 1870-2010"" Download abstract Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner"
"Nick Netzer, University of Zurich: ""An Externality-Robust Auction""";"Department of Economics";"2013-04-04";"1:30pm";"2013-04-04";"2:45pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";"Download abstract Contact person: Alexander Sebald"
"Simon H Boserup, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2013-04-05";"01:00";"2013-04-05";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Intergenerational Wealth Mobility: Evidence from Danish Wealth Records of Three Generations"". Download paper"
"Mario Amore, University of Bocconi: ""Corporate governance and the environment: Evidence from green innovations""";"EPRU/WEST";"2013-04-12";"1:00pm";"2013-04-12";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download paper"
"Robert Z. Aliber, University of Chicago";"EPRU/WEST";"2013-04-16";"01:30";"2013-04-16";"02:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""The Source of Monetary Turmoil"". Download paper"
"Florian Schuett, Tilburg University: ""Ethical voters and the demand for political news""";"Department of Economics";"2013-04-18";"1:30pm";"2013-04-18";"2:45pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";"Download abstract Contact persons: Thomas Jensen and Christoph Schottmüller"
"Svend Albæk, DG Competition, European Commission: &#8221;The E-books case&#8221;";"Department of Economics";"2013-04-19";"11:00";"2013-04-19";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";"Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf"
"Masako Ikefuji, University of Southern Denmark: ""Economics meets statistics: Expected utility and catastrophic risk""";"EPRU";"2013-04-19";"1:00pm";"2013-04-19";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper Contact person: Christian Groth"
"Marc Patrick Brag Klemp";"Department of Economics";"2013-04-22";"16:00";"2013-04-22";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";" Marc Patrick Brag Klemp, University of Copenhagen: ""Empirical Investigations in Unified Growth Theory"" Based on the use of a vast historical database of English church book records, the first paper documents that individuals born during the English famine in 1727–1728 were affected by increased mortality throughout life. This effect was strongest among the poorest families. In the second paper, the data are combined with estimates of income, and it is documented that higher income had a negative causal effect on the intervals between births in England before the demographic transition. The effect appears to arise from deliberate actions. The third paper is based on the same data and shows that children of couples with long intervals from their marriage to their first birth (and thus low fecundity and small families) were more likely to become literate and employed in a skilled profession. The paper thereby documents a negative causal effect of family size on the education of children. The fourth paper is based on a similar and more comprehensive database from pre-industrial Quebec and establishes that individuals of intermediate fecundity (and thus an intermediate number of children) produced more descendants after two or more generations than individuals of high or low fecundity. In the light of the heritability of fecundity, the finding suggests that the forces of natural selection generated an evolutionary advantage for individuals characterized by an intermediate level of fecundity, raising their representation in the population."
"Benjamin Falkeborg";"Department of Economics";"2013-04-29";"3:00pm";"2013-04-29";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";"Benjamin Falkeborg, University of Copenhagen: ""Essays in Financial Economics. On Trading, Risk and Incentives"" PhD thesis"
"Christian Traxler, University of Marburg";"EPRN/WEST";"2013-05-03";"01:00";"2013-05-03";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"""Compliance Behavior in Networks: Evidence from a Field Experiment"". Download abstract"
"Kfir Eliaz, Brown University: ""Reference-Dependence and Labor Market Fluctuations""";"Department of Economics";"2013-05-16";"1:30pm";"2013-05-16";"2:45pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";"Download paper Contact persons: Thomas Jensen and Christoph Schottmüller"
"Martin Jacob, Otto Beisheim School of Management: ""The effect of awareness and incentives on tax evasion""";"EPRU/WEST";"2013-05-17";"1:00pm";"2013-05-17";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Andreas Bjerre Nielsen, University of Copenhagen: ""Assortative matching in social networks""";"Department of Economics";"2013-05-23";"1:30pm";"2013-05-23";"2:45pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";"Download abstract"
"Jennifer Poole, UC Santa Cruz: ""Trade and Labor Reallocation with Heterogeneous Enforcement of Labor Regulations""";"EPRU";"2013-05-28";"2:30pm";"2013-05-28";"3:45pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paperContact person: Jakob Roland Munch"
"Research Workshop in Economic History";"Department of Economics";"2013-05-30";"12:00pm";"2013-05-31";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Workshop";"Programme Research Workshop in Economic HistoryDepartment of Economics, University of CopenhagenVenue: Building 26, Room 26-2-21Thursday 30 May and Friday 31 May 2013 Thursday 30 May 12.00 – 13.00 Lunch / 3rd floor 13.00 – 15.00 The Demographic Session 1 (Chair: Mette Ejrnæs)“The Historical Fertility Transition at the Micro Level: Why some are so early andothers so late?” Presenter: Tommy Bengtsson. Co-author: Martin Dribe“Malthus in Scandinavia”. Presenter: Marc Klemp. Co-authors: Niels FramrozeMøller and Paul Sharp. 15.00-15.30 Coffee 16.00-18.00 The Demographic session 2 (Chair: Carl-Johan Dalgaard)“Expectations, child mortality and fertility strategies in Tuscany, 1700-1914”Presenter: Mette Ejrnæs. Co-author: Karl Gunnar Persson.“Plague and Population: London 1560-1665” Presenter: Cormac Ó Gráda 18.30 Dinner Friday 31 May 08.30 – 09.00 Coffee 09.00 - 11.00 History Session 1 (Chair: Karl Gunnar Persson)“Accounting for the Great Divergence”. Steve Broadberry“The Spread of Manufacturing to the Periphery 1870-2007: Eight Stylized Facts.”Kevin H. O'Rourke . Co-authors: Agustin S. Bénétrix, Jeffrey G. Williamson 11.00 – 11.30 Coffee 11.30 – 13.30 History Session 2 (Chair: Carl-Johan Dalgaard)“Jews, Brahmins, Copts, Gypsies and Franco-Americans: A Theory of SocialMobility”. Presenter: Greg Clark“World trade 1800-1938”. Giovanni Federico. Co-author: Antonio Tena. 13.30 – 14.00 Lunch / 3rd floor 15.00- Karl Gunnar Persson’s Emeritus Lecture Reception"
"Thomas Greve";"Department of Economics";"2013-05-31";"10:00am";"2013-05-31";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 25.01.53), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";"Thomas Greve, University of Copenhagen: ""Essays in Mechanism Design"" This thesis consists of five papers addressing different issues within the area of mechanism design. The first chapter examines two different ways of regulating a market – one where only a single firm is operating, being a regulated monopoly, and another one with two firms in the market, operating under regulated competition. We consider an industry with a technology admitting increasing returns to scale and a no-subsidy policy. We investigate the welfare effects of the two alternative regimes. The second paper studies the bidding behavior in a multi-dimensional procurement auction where both the principal and the agents have private information. The interest here is the consequences of having a principal that do not show its preferences. Absent these preferences from the principal, the agents will not know how much to bid in order to win the contract. The third chapter is a literature review on the current theory and experience of auctions and serves as a background for the last two chapters. In the fourth chapter, we propose an auction design that can increase the possibility to secure funding to finance infrastructure investments. Specifically, we look at the market for offshore transmission assets, but the auction can easily be used in other areas. In the last chapter, we propose an auction design where bidders might propose own suggested/different offshore (and associated onshore) transmission network configurations and where bidding for packages transmission assets is a possibility."
"Simon Halphen Boserup";"Department of Economics";"2013-06-03";"15:00";"2013-06-03";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";"Simon Halphen Boserup, University of Copenhagen: ""Essays on Tax Evasion and Enforcement and Intergenerational Wealth Mobility"" This dissertation is comprised of three self-contained chapters. The first two are closely related as they both apply a structural model of tax evasion and enforcement to administrative tax return and audit data stemming from a large-scale experiment carried out by the Danish tax authorities. Chapter one (joint with J.V. Pinje) investigates the distributional consequences of tax evasion and optimal auditing and, in particular, the prediction that there will be a regressive bias in effective average tax rates compared to statutory rates. We find that this is in fact the case when looking at effective tax rates as a function of income not subject to information reporting by third parties. However, the tax authorities’ use of third party reports in their effort to combat tax evasion counteracts the regressive bias, resulting in no evidence of a bias when considering effective tax rates as a function of total income (third-party reported as well as self-reported). In the second chapter (joint with J.V. Pinje) we estimate a structural model of tax evasion and enforcement and investigate the relative efficacy of tax authorities’ instruments to deter tax evasion. We find that instruments that work along the intensive margin of tax evasion (audits and penalty rates) are less effective than instruments that work along the extensive margin of tax evasion (third-party information reporting and the share of honest taxpayers in the population). The final chapter (joint with W. Kopczuk and C.T. Kreiner) contributes to the literature on intergenerational mobility by studying wealth correlations across three generations of Danes using administrative data on wealth. We estimate the intergenerational wealth elasticity (IWE) and provide a theoretical framework to allow a deeper understanding of the nature of the IWE. The IWE can be interpreted as a weighted average of elasticities corresponding to particular sources of intergenerational correlation (e.g., intergenerational correlation in preferences or earnings capacity) and is not as such a deep parameter. We find evidence to suggest that parental wealth serves as a sufficient statistic for the effect of parental characteristics on child wealth. Finally, using data for three generations, we find that conventional child-parents IWE estimates severely underestimate the long-term persistence in the formation of wealth across generations."
"Johan Lagerlöf, University of Copenhagen: ""Incentives to Acquire Genetic Information in a Monopoly Insurance Market""";"Department of Economics";"2013-06-06";"1:30pm";"2013-06-06";"2:45pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";""
"EPRN konference: ""Nye analyser i dansk Økonomi""";"EPRN";"2013-06-13";"09:00";"2013-06-13";"05:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale: 1.1.18), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRN conference";" Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner NYE ANALYSER AF DANSK ØKONOMI NetværkskonferenceKøbenhavns Universitet, CSS, lokale 1.1.18Program arrangeret af Claus Thustrup Kreiner Torsdag d. 13. juni 2013 8.30-8.55: Ankomst og kaffe 8.55-9.00: Velkomst Session 1: Forbrug, opsparing og pension 9.00-9.35: Øger skattefradrag for pensionsopsparing den samlede opsparing? Søren Leth-Petersen, Københavns Universitet, SFI og EPRU 9.35-10.10: Forbrug, indkomst og formue. Paul Kramp, Danmarks Nationalbank 10.10-10.30: Kaffe Session 2: Arbejdsudbud, incitamenter og økonomisk politik 10.30-11.05: Udskydelse af lønudbetalinger som skatteundvigelse ved 2010 Skattereformen. Peer Ebbesen Skov, Københavns Universitet og Rockwool Fondens Forskningsenhed 11.05-11.40: Arbejdsudbuddet blandt enlige mødre: Effekten af en 2-årig forsøgsordning. Andreas Orebo Hansen, Københavns Universitet og Kraka 11.40-12.15: Estimation af strukturel bruttoledighed og presset på arbejdsmarkedet. Troels Danielsen, Finansministeriet. 12.15-13.15: Frokostbuffet Session 3: Ulighed og social arv 13.15-13.50: Social arv og opvækstvilkårs betydning for efterfølgende uddannelse og arbejdsmarked. Martin Ulrik Jensen, Økonomi- og indenrigsministeriet. 13.50-14.25: Den historiske udvikling i indkomstuligheden i Danmark: Top indkomster fra 1870 til 2010. Jakob Egholt Søgaard, Københavns Universitet og Finansministeriet. 14.25-14.45: Kaffe Session 4: Produktivitet og boligmarked 14.45-15.20: SMILE – En ny dansk mikrosimuleringsmodel til fremskrivning af den nationale boligefterspørgsel og husholdningsstruktur. Peter Stephensen, DREAM 15.20-15.55: IT, innovation og produktivitetsvækst. Jóannes Jacobsen, Copenhagen Business School og CEBR June 14, 2013 8:30-8:55: Arrival and coffee 8:55-9:00: Welcome 9:00-10:00: Intergenerational Income Mobility: What Have We Learned, and What Do We Still Want to Find Out? Gary Solon, Michigan State University 10:00-10:15: Coffee break 10:15-11:15: Intergenerational Mobility and the Timing of Parental Income.Kjell G. Salvanes, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration 11:15-11:30: Coffee break 11:30-12:30: Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers. Costas Meghir, Yale University KORT OM DE INTERNATIONALE FOREDRAGSHOLDERE Gary Solon, Costas Meghir og Kjell G. Salvanes er førende internationale forskere. De har alle et imponerende CV med flere artikler i top-5 tidsskrifterne indenfor økonomi og med væsentlige bidrag inden for området Intergenerationel Mobilitet, der er temaet for den internationale del af årets EPRN konference. Gary Solon: Amerikaner. Ph.D. i Økonomi fra Princeton University i 1983. Professor ved Michigan State University og Research Associate ved National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Hovedforskningsområde: Arbejdsmarkedspolitik ogIntergenerationel Mobilitet. Har bl.a. skrevet kapitlet i Handbook of Labor Economics om Intergenerational Mobility. Er leder af projektet social mobility trends ved Stanford Poverty Research Center. Har tidligt i sin karriere været MathematicalStatistician ved U.S. Department of Labor og Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Har været medlem af Board of Editors of the American Economic Review, co-editor af B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy og Advisory Editorfor Economics Letters. Costas Meghir: Græsk og Britisk statsborgerskab. Ph.D. i Økonomi fra Manchester University i 1985. Professor ved Yale University, Research Associate ved National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) og Fellow of the British Academy. DeputyDirector of the ESRC Centre for Fiscal Policy at Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).Forskningsområder: Arbejdsmarkedspolitik, Uddannelsesøkonomi og Udviklingsøkonomi. Flere end 50 artikler i internationalt anerkendte tidsskrifter.Ragnar Frisch Medal i år 2000 for bedste artikel i Econometrica. Har bl.a. været coeditor for Econometrica, assistant editor for Review of Economic Studies og joint managing editor for Economic Journal. Kjell G. Salvanes: Nordmand. Ph.D. i Økonomi fra Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration i 1988 og er i dag professor same sted. Research Fellow ved Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), ved CESifo i München og ved Center for theEconomics of Education, London School of Economics. Editor af Economic Journal og Associate editor for European Economic Review. Medlem af executive committee for European Association of Labor Economists. Forskningsområder:Arbejdsmarkedspolitik, Uddannelsesøkonomi og Familieøkonomi."
"EPRN conference";"EPRN";"2013-06-14";"09:00";"2013-06-14";"01:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale: 1.1.18), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRN conference - ""Economic Outcomes Across Generations and the Nature of Nurture Debate""";"Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner NYE ANALYSER AF DANSK ØKONOMI NetværkskonferenceKøbenhavns Universitet, CSS, lokale 1.1.18Program arrangeret af Claus Thustrup Kreiner Torsdag d. 13. juni 2013 8.30-8.55: Ankomst og kaffe 8.55-9.00: Velkomst Session 1: Forbrug, opsparing og pension 9.00-9.35: Øger skattefradrag for pensionsopsparing den samlede opsparing? Søren Leth-Petersen, Københavns Universitet, SFI og EPRU 9.35-10.10: Forbrug, indkomst og formue. Paul Kramp, Danmarks Nationalbank 10.10-10.30: Kaffe Session 2: Arbejdsudbud, incitamenter og økonomisk politik 10.30-11.05: Udskydelse af lønudbetalinger som skatteundvigelse ved 2010 Skattereformen. Peer Ebbesen Skov, Københavns Universitet og Rockwool Fondens Forskningsenhed 11.05-11.40: Arbejdsudbuddet blandt enlige mødre: Effekten af en 2-årig forsøgsordning. Andreas Orebo Hansen, Københavns Universitet og Kraka 11.40-12.15: Estimation af strukturel bruttoledighed og presset på arbejdsmarkedet. Troels Danielsen, Finansministeriet. 12.15-13.15: Frokostbuffet Session 3: Ulighed og social arv 13.15-13.50: Social arv og opvækstvilkårs betydning for efterfølgende uddannelse og arbejdsmarked. Martin Ulrik Jensen, Økonomi- og indenrigsministeriet. 13.50-14.25: Den historiske udvikling i indkomstuligheden i Danmark: Top indkomster fra 1870 til 2010. Jakob Egholt Søgaard, Københavns Universitet og Finansministeriet. 14.25-14.45: Kaffe Session 4: Produktivitet og boligmarked 14.45-15.20: SMILE – En ny dansk mikrosimuleringsmodel til fremskrivning af den nationale boligefterspørgsel og husholdningsstruktur. Peter Stephensen, DREAM 15.20-15.55: IT, innovation og produktivitetsvækst. Jóannes Jacobsen, Copenhagen Business School og CEBR June 14, 2013 8:30-8:55: Arrival and coffee 8:55-9:00: Welcome 9:00-10:00: Intergenerational Income Mobility: What Have We Learned, and What Do We Still Want to Find Out? Gary Solon, Michigan State University 10:00-10:15: Coffee break 10:15-11:15: Intergenerational Mobility and the Timing of Parental Income.Kjell G. Salvanes, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration 11:15-11:30: Coffee break 11:30-12:30: Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers. Costas Meghir, Yale University KORT OM DE INTERNATIONALE FOREDRAGSHOLDERE Gary Solon, Costas Meghir og Kjell G. Salvanes er førende internationale forskere. De har alle et imponerende CV med flere artikler i top-5 tidsskrifterne indenfor økonomi og med væsentlige bidrag inden for området Intergenerationel Mobilitet, der er temaet for den internationale del af årets EPRN konference. Gary Solon: Amerikaner. Ph.D. i Økonomi fra Princeton University i 1983. Professor ved Michigan State University og Research Associate ved National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Hovedforskningsområde: Arbejdsmarkedspolitik og Intergenerationel Mobilitet. Har bl.a. skrevet kapitlet i Handbook of Labor Economics om Intergenerational Mobility. Er leder af projektet social mobility trends ved Stanford Poverty Research Center. Har tidligt i sin karriere været Mathematical Statistician ved U.S. Department of Labor og Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce. Har været medlem af Board of Editors of the American Economic Review, co-editor af B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy og Advisory Editorfor Economics Letters. Costas Meghir: Græsk og Britisk statsborgerskab. Ph.D. i Økonomi fra Manchester University i 1985. Professor ved Yale University, Research Associate ved National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) og Fellow of the British Academy. DeputyDirector of the ESRC Centre for Fiscal Policy at Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).Forskningsområder: Arbejdsmarkedspolitik, Uddannelsesøkonomi og Udviklingsøkonomi. Flere end 50 artikler i internationalt anerkendte tidsskrifter. Ragnar Frisch Medal i år 2000 for bedste artikel i Econometrica. Har bl.a. været coeditor for Econometrica, assistant editor for Review of Economic Studies og joint managing editor for Economic Journal. Kjell G. Salvanes: Nordmand. Ph.D. i Økonomi fra Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration i 1988 og er i dag professor same sted. Research Fellow ved Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), ved CESifo i München og ved Center for the Economics of Education, London School of Economics. Editor af Economic Journal og Associate editor for European Economic Review. Medlem af executive committee for European Association of Labor Economists. Forskningsområder: Arbejdsmarkedspolitik, Uddannelsesøkonomi og Familieøkonomi."
"WEST workshop on Intergenerational Mobility";"WEST";"2013-06-14";"1:00pm";"2013-06-15";"2:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"WEST workshop";"Download program Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner"
" Søren Hove Ravn";"Department of Economics";"2013-06-19";"10:00am";"2013-06-19";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence Søren Hove Ravn, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen.";"Title Søren Hove Ravn: ""Essays on the Interactions between Financial Markets, the Macroeconomy, and Economic Policy"" Abstract This dissertation consists of four chapters. In chapter 1, I study empirically whether monetary policy in the US has featured an asymmetric reaction to stock prices in the years leading up to the crisis. Using a daily dataset, I show that interest rates have been cut in response to declining stock prices, whereas monetary policy has remained inactive when stock prices rose. This result is confirmed using lower-frequency data. In chapter 2, I use a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to study the impact of such a policy on macroeconomic outcomes, and investigate how an asymmetric policy interacts with already existing asymmetries in the way stock markets affect the macro economy. I show that an asymmetric policy of this type gives rise to an asymmetric business cycle, as well as an additional, expectations-driven increase in stock prices in response to a positive shock to the economy. In the third chapter, I study the macroeconomic implications of countercyclical movements in banks’ lending standards, which have been documented in empirical studies. This is done by introducing profit-maximizing banks and a version of relationship banking into a DSGE model. I find that countercyclical credit standards tend to amplify business cycle fluctuations, although this amplification is quite modest at the macroeconomic level. Chapter 4 contains an empirical study of the effects of fiscal policy in Denmark. The results of this chapter suggest that changes in government spending have a rather large but very short lived effect in Denmark. Moreover, the results confirm that the fiscal multiplier is far from constant over time. It was low in the 1970’s and 1980’s, but has been larger in the last two decades when Denmark has had a credibly fixed exchange rate and sound public finances."
"Nina Boberg-Fazlic, University of Copenhagen: ""North and South: Social Mobility and Welfare Spending in Preindustrial England""";"EPRU/WEST";"2013-06-21";"1:00pm";"2013-06-21";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/WEST seminar";"Download paper"
"Mehmet Ismail, Maastricht University : ""The equivalence between two-player symmetric games and decision problems""";"Department of Economics";"2013-06-27";"1:30pm";"2013-06-27";"2:45pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department/micro seminar";"Download abstract Contact person: Christoph Schottmüller"
"Nina Torm";"Department of Economics";"2013-07-02";"11:00";"2013-07-02";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";"Nina Torm: ""Firms and Workers in Transition: A Series of Micro Studies on Vietnam "" This thesis is based on survey data of Vietnamese small and medium manufacturing enterprises and consists of four self-contained chapters which can be read independently. The first paper analyses the benefits associated with firm formalization and shows that becoming legally registered results in higher profits and investment, increased credit access, and improved contract conditions for workers. The second paper disentangles the wage gap between formal and informal firms and finds that the majority of the wage differential is due to differences in firm characteristics between formal and informal firms, especially firm size, certain workforce characteristics, and location. The third paper uses matched employer-employee data to show that union membership is associated with higher wages and an increased likelihood of receiving social insurance. The results are particularly strong for workers in Southern firms, suggesting that historical institutional differences between the North and South of the country prevail. The fourth paper, also based on matched employer-employee data, reveals that workers who are hired informally receive a wage premium compared with workers who have obtained their job through a more formal recruitment method. In terms of policy implications, some of the main lessons drawn from the papers include; the need for enhanced information on formalization requirements and procedures, as well as an increased focus on enforcing compliance with labour related regulations."
"Miles Kimball, University of Michigan and NBER: ""Breaking Through the Zero Lower Bound""";"Department of Economics";"2013-09-05";"2:00pm";"2013-09-05";"3:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download abstract"
"Jeanet Bentzen: ""Origins of Religiousness: The Role of Natural Disasters""";"EPRU";"2013-09-06";"01:00";"2013-09-06";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""The Role of Natural Disasters"" Abstract Across 800 regions of the World, this research shows that people are more religious when living in regions that are more frequently razed by natural disasters. This is in line with psychological theory stressing that religious people tend to cope with adverse life events by seeking comfort in their religion or searching for a reason for the event; for instance that the event was an act of God. This is termed religious coping. Natural disasters are a source for adverse life events, and thus one way to interpret my findings is by way of religious coping. The results are robust to various measures of religiousness, and to inclusion of country-fixed effects, income, education, demographics, religious denominations, and other climatic and geographic features. The results hold within Christianity, Islam and Buddhism, and across continents. To eliminate bias from omitted variables and selection (perhaps religious people are less likely to move out of disaster areas as they see the disaster as an act of God), I further show that second generation immigrants whose mothers descend from natural disaster areas, are more religious than their counterparts with ancestors from calmer areas. Why should economists care? Evidence suggests that religiousness influences economic outcomes (e.g., McCleary & Barro (2003), Iannaccone (1998))."
"""Hvad koster kulturen""";"Økonomisk Institut";"2013-09-06";"03:00";"2013-09-06";"04:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Emeritus forelæsning ved professor Christian Hjorth-Andersen.";"Professor Christian Hjorth-Andersen bliver nu emeritus. I den anledning indbyder Økonomisk Institut til Emeritus forelæsning med efterfølgende reception. Program 15:00: Velkomst ved institutleder Christian Schultz 15:05: Emeritus forelæsning ved professor Christian Hjorth-Andersen 16:00: Reception Kontakt: Christian Schultz"
"Conference: ""Recent developments in Bootstrap methods for time series data""";"Financed by: DFF-Advanced Grant research project (Rahbek)";"2013-09-08";"";"2013-09-10";"";"Schaeffergaarden";"DFF-Advanced Grant research project (Rahbek)";"From September 8-10 about 30 international top researchers visit.We have a very exciting program for discussion of new and further developments of the recently very succesful applications of the bootstrap in the analysis of economic, financial (as well as other) time series data. Organized by: Anders Rahbek "
"Roman Frydman, New York University, INET Center NYU: ""The Contingent Expectations Hypothesis: Conditional Rationality in Macroeconomics and Finance Theory""";"Department of Economics";"2013-09-10";"4:15pm";"2013-09-10";"6:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Thomas Epper, University of Zurich";"EPRU";"2013-09-13";"01:00";"2013-09-13";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""The Missing Link: Unifying Risk Taking and Time Discounting"". Download paper"
"Motten Nyboe Tabor";"Department of Economics";"2013-09-25";"3 pm";"2013-09-25";"6 pm";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal";"Ph.D.-defence";"Morten Nyboe Tabor:""Essays on Imperfect Knowledge, Structural Change, and Persistence in the Cointegrated VAR Model"" PhD thesis"
"""Politstudiet gennem 20 år""";"Department of Economics";"2013-09-27";"03:00";"2013-09-27";"03:50";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Bygning 35, 3.sal (""Faculty Lounge"") 1353 Kbh K ";"Emeritus forelæsning ved professor Peter Erling Nielsen.";"Studieleder Peter Erling Nielsen bliver nu emeritus. I den anledning indbyder Økonomisk Institut til emeritus forelæsning med efterfølgende reception. Program 15:00: Velkomst ved institutleder Christian Schultz 15:05: Emeritus forelæsning ved studieleder Peter Erling Nielsen 15:50: Reception i ""Faculty Lounge"", bygning 35, 3.sal. Kontakt: Christian Schultz"
"Martin Rossi, Universidad de San Andres: ""First-Day Criminal Recidivism""";"EPRU";"2013-10-02";"1:00pm";"2013-10-02";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download abstract"
"Nikolaj Harmon, Department of Economics";"EPRU";"2013-10-04";"01:00";"2013-10-04";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Politician Peer Effects"". Download abstract"
"Niels Johannsen, University of Copenhagen: ""Can Taxes Tame the Banks? Evidence from the European Bank Levies""";"EPRU";"2013-10-11";"1:00pm";"2013-10-11";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download abstract"
"David Hendry: ""Semi-automatic Non-linear Model Selection""";"Department of Economics";"2013-10-15";"3:00pm";"2013-10-15";"5:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, University of Copenhagen: ""Credit Cycles with Renegotiation""";"";"2013-11-01";"1:00pm";"2013-11-01";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Damoun Ashournia";"Department of Economics";"2013-11-12";"15:00";"2013-11-12";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Seminarrum, 2. sal";"Damoun Ashournia: Essays in International Trade. Labor Market Outcomes and Competition Dynamics";"Damoun Ashournia: Essays in International Trade. Labor Market Outcomes and Competition Dynamics This dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters. The first two are empirical papers on the labor market outcomes of international trade, using data from the administrative records of Statistics Denmark. The final chapter contributes to the theoretical literature on the impact of trade liberalization on competition when firms are imperfectly competitive. Chapter 1, “A Dynamic Analysis of Globalization and Unemployment, aims to estimate the mobility costs involved when workers change from one sector to another, for example due to globalization. Developed countries have experienced increasing foreign competition, particularly from low wage countries, since the early 1990s. This has been coupled with a shift in production away from the manufacturing sector towards non-traded goods and services. In so far as this reallocation is costly for workers, estimating the mobility costs is important in understanding how the labor market adjusts to increased foreign competition. The mobility costs are estimated in a structural model of the Danish labor market, and found to be in the range of 1.2 to 2.4 average annual wages for the median worker, thus comprising a significant barrier to intersectoral mobility. Chapter 2, “The Impact of Chinese Import Penetration on Danish Firms and Workers” (joint with Jakob Munch and Daniel Nguyen), uses the recent surge in imports from China as a natural experiment to investigate how low wage country imports affect domestic firms and workers. Since the 1980s several developed economies have experienced contemporaneous increases in imports and in the wage gap between high- and low- skilled workers. The paper measures Chinese import penetration at the firm level, and finds that greater exposure to Chinese imports corresponds to a negative firm-level demand shock, which is biased towards low-skill intensive products. Consistent with this, an increase in Chinese import penetration results in lower wages for low-skilled workers. Finally, Chapter 3, “Trade Liberalization and the Degree of Competition in International Duopoly” (joint with Per Svejstrup Hansen and Jonas Worm Hansen), build a theoretical model to analyze how a reduction in trade costs influences the possibility for firms to engage in international cartels, and hence how trade liberalization affects the degree of competition. By amending the ‘reciprocal dumping’ model of Brander and Krugman (1983) to allow for differentiated products, the paper finds that trade liberalization may have an anti-competitive effect, though there is no monotone relation between reducing trade costs and the degree of competition. "
"Louise Charlotte Willerslev-Olsen, University of Copenhagen: ""WORK IN PROGRESS""";"EPRU";"2013-11-15";"1:00pm";"2013-11-15";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download abstract"
"Kirbom Araya Abay";"Department of Economics";"2013-11-25";"15:00";"2013-11-25";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal";"PhD thesis by Kirbom Araya: Essays on Micro-econometric Modeling";"PhD thesis by Kirbom Araya: ""Essays on Microeconometric Modeling"" This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters, all dealing with micro-econometric modeling of road crash outcomes and all involving estimating simulation-based discrete choice models that accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and/or endogeneity effects. The first chapter investigates the injury severity of pedestrians considering alternative model specification and detailed road user behavior using a high-quality Danish road accident data. The alternative analytical specification of the models in this paper reveals that the choice of injury severity modeling approach has important implication on the empirical inferences associated with the effect of the explanatory variables in injury severity analysis. Particularly, the conventionally employed fixed-parameters standard ordered response injury severity model underestimates the marginal effects of some of the variables considered. The second chapter proposes a methodological approach that jointly models the injury severity of multiple individuals involved in a crash, while also recognizing the endogeneity of seat belt use in predicting injury severity levels as well as accommodating unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of variables. The analysis underscores the importance accommodating seat belt endogeneity effects and unobserved heterogeneity effects. The third chapter investigates the nature and impact of the reporting bias (sample selection) associated with the police-reported crash data on inferences made using this data. In doing so, we merge a detailed emergency room data and the commonly employed police-reported crash data for a specific region in Denmark. The empirical results in this paper confirm the existence of substantial reporting bias in the police-reported road crash data. This non-random sample selection associated with the police-reported crash data leads to biased estimates on the effect of some of the explanatory variables in injury severity analysis."
"Workshop of the Copenhagen Network of Experimental Economists";"";"2013-11-26";"11:00am";"2013-11-26";"6:00pm";"TBA";"Workshop";"Contact person: Alexander Sebald"
"Mie la Cour Sonne";"Department of Economics";"2013-11-26";"16:00";"2013-11-26";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"PhD defence";" Mie la Cour Sonne: ""Essays in Two-sided Markets and Optimal Contracting""""Essays in Two-sided Markets and Optimal Contracting"" This dissertation consists of three chapters, each of which can be read separately. The first two chapters are closely related and contribute to the literature on two-sided markets. Chapter 1 focuses on a monopoly platform and analyzes how vertical mergers affect prices and welfare when markets are two-sided. Contrary to conventional wisdom from one-sided markets, I show that prices can increase as the result of a vertical merger. This can happen both on the side where the merger takes place and on the other side. Furthermore, while firms are better off after a vertical merger, consumers can be worse off. Chapter 2 presents a model of differentiated platform competition where consumers have the option of purchasing from one or both platforms. Contrary to the results in the existing literature, we find that prices are lower when consumers are multi homing compared to when they are single homing. The last chapter contributes to the literature on contract theory. We analyze the role of conflict in principal-agent environments with subjective performance evaluations, reciprocal agents, and endogenous feelings of entitlements. We find that higher conflict costs can actually increase welfare. Further, we formally characterize situations in which is it optimal for the principal to hire agents who are very sensitive to reciprocity or agents who are likely to have an own opinion. Finally, we show that even if it is costless for the principal to choose a high quality evaluation procedure, he might not find it optimal to do so."
"Søren Hove Ravn, Nationalbanken";"EPRU";"2013-12-06";"01:00";"2013-12-06";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Changing Credit Limits, Changing Business Cycles"" Download abstract"
"Christian Søgaard, Warwick University";"EPRU";"2013-12-13";"01:00";"2013-12-13";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""The Effects of Entry in the Bilateral Oligopoly"". Download paper"
"Iris Kesternich, University of Münich: ""Us and Them: Distributional Preferences in Small and Large Groups""";"Department of Economics";"2014-01-15";"1:00pm";"2014-01-15";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Jan Stuhler, University College London: ""Interpreting Trends in Intergenerational Mobility""";"Department of Economics";"2014-01-17";"1:00pm";"2014-01-17";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Paper"
"Katarina Borovickova, New York University: ""What Drives Labor Market Flows""";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-01-20";"10:00";"2014-01-20";"12:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Seminar Room 1st Floor (26.1.21B)";"Department seminar";"Paper"
"Jaroslav Borovicka, New York University: "" Survival and long-run dynamics with heterogenous beliefs under recursive preferences""";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-01-20";"14:00";"2014-01-20";"16:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Seminar Room 1st Floor (26.1.21B)";"Department seminar";"Paper"
"Jesper Rudiger, European University Institute: ""Financial Experts, Asset Prices and Reputation""";"Department of Economics";"2014-01-22";"13:00";"";"16:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, seminar room (26.1.21B)";"Department seminar";"Seminar paper"
"Shlomo Yitzhaki, Hebrew University";"EPRU";"2014-01-24";"01:00";"2014-01-24";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Gini's Mean Difference offers a response to Leamer's critique"". Download abstract"
"Kristina Czura, European University Institute: ""Pay, peek, punish? Repayment, information acquisition and punishment in a microcredit lab-in-the field experiment";"Department of Economics";"2014-01-24";"11:00";"2014-01-24";"14:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Seminar room(26.1.21B)";"Department seminar";"Paper"
"Peer Skov";"Department of Economics";"2014-01-24";"15:00";"2014-01-24";"15:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Peer Skov: ""Essays in Empirical Public Finance: Tax Incentives and Taxpayer Behavior"" This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters on empirical public finance. The chapters are united in their focus on taxpayer responses to changing tax incentives. All three analyses build on raw administrative Danish tax data and all the exogenous variation under study is provided by changes to the Danish tax law. The first paper shows that the reduction in top marginal tax rates provided by the Danish 2010 tax reform caused Danish taxpayers to shift wage income from 2009 into 2010 to reduce their tax payments. We show that this shifting of wage income is important for estimating the elasticity of taxable income (ETI). Using a traditional approach we estimate the ETI to be 0.1 and find that the ETI is increasing in the earnings level. Controlling for shifting, we obtain negligible ETI estimates at all earnings levels. The second paper studies the 2008 introduction of 3rd party information of charitable contributions. We show how the introduction of 3rd party reporting of charity contributions led to a surge in tax deductions claimed and estimate the per-year average amount of forgone tax benefits to be small, but find that many taxpayers repeatedly failed to claim eligible charitable tax deductions under the self-reporting regime. In the third paper I show how the Danish 2009 introduction of a small interest penalty caused a significant advancement in the payment timing of owed taxes. Using administrative tax data I show that the penalty introduction led to a 50-day advancement in payment timing. The evidence further indicates liquidity access as an important factor behind the taxpayer response."
"Andreas Steinhauer, University of Zürich: ""Identity, Working Moms, and Childlessness: Evidence from Switzerland""";"Department of Economics";"2014-01-28";"1:00pm";"2014-01-28";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department of Economics";"Download paper"
"Philipp Tillmann, University of Chicago: ""Entry into Electoral Races and the Quality of Representation""";"Department of Economics";"2014-01-30";"1:00pm";"2014-01-30";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Alexandre N. Kohlhas, University of Cambridge";"Department of Economics";"2014-01-31";"14:00";"2014-01-31";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"""Learning-by-Sharing: Monetary Policy and the Information Content of Aggregate Variables"". Department seminar";"""Learning-by-Sharing: Monetary Policy and the Information Content of Aggregate Variables"""
"Laura Sunder-Plassmann, University of Minnesota: ""Inflation, default, and the denomination of sovereign debt""";"Department of Economics";"2014-02-06";"1:00pm";"2014-02-06";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Hyojung Lee, Purdue University: ""Industrial output fluctuations in developing countries: General equilibrium consequences of agricultural productivity shocks""";"Department of Economics";"2014-02-07";"1:00pm";"2014-02-07";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download abstract"
"Roland Rathelot, CREST";"Department of Economics";"2014-02-10";"11:15";"2014-02-10";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"""The Geography of Job Search and Mismatch Unemployment"". Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";" ""The Geography of Job Search and Mismatch Unemployment"" Abstract Can we reduce unemployment by moving job seekers to areas with better job opportunities? To answer this question, we need data on the distance between job seekers and the jobs they apply to. Using novel data from the popular website CareerBuilder.com, we quantify how application probability declines with distance from the job seekers' zip code of residence. 82% of applications are sent to jobs within the same city (Core-Based Statistical Area, CBSA), but only 46% are sent to jobs within the same county. We build a simple search-and-matching framework in which job seekers have a distaste for distance and use our data to estimate its parameters. Using our model, we find that US unemployment could be reduced by up to 3% by reallocating job seekers across zip codes. This magnitude of mismatch is similar to what we find using data aggregated at the CBSA level. Our evidence suggests that the CBSA is an acceptable definition of a local labor market."
"Lucia Del Carpio, Princeton University: ""Are the Neighbors Cheating? Evidence from a Social Norm Experiment on Property Taxes in Peru""";"Department of Economics";"2014-02-18";"3:00pm";"2014-02-18";"4:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Download paper"
"Morten Olsen, IESE Business School,i Barcelona: ""The Rise of the Machines: Automation, Horizontal Innovation and Income Inequality""";"EPRU";"2014-02-21";"1:00pm";"2014-02-21";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Christian Heebøll-Christensen, KRAKA";"EPRU POLICY";"2014-02-28";"01:00";"2014-02-28";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU/POLICY seminar";"""Regional Danish housing booms and the effects of financial deregulation and expansionary economic policy"". Download abstract"
"Nina Boberg-Fazlic";"Department of Economics";"2014-02-28";"14:00";"2014-02-28";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Seminarrum, 2. sal";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Nina Boberg-Fazlic: ""Essays on Demography, Social Mobility, and the Development of the Welfare State"" This dissertation is comprised of four self-contained chapters in different fields of economics. The first chapter is a theoretical paper presenting an overlapping generations model examining the effects of increased life expectancy on the choices of length of schooling and retirement age. I show that, taking lifetime uncertainty into account, educational attainment always increases upon an increase in life expectancy even if the retirement age is reduced. Thus, the empirical observation of falling lifetime labour supply and increasing educational attainment can be reconciled. The remaining three chapters are within the field of economic history. They are empirical in nature, concerning historical developments in England before and during industrialization. Chapter 2 investigates and explains fertility differences, and the consequences thereof, by socio-economic group in pre-industrial England. We find that wealthier groups did indeed have higher fertility until the 1700s and that the children of the rich were downwardly mobile, as suggested by Greg Clark. But they were small in number relative to poorer sections of society, making the consequences of the observed fertility pattern less clear. Chapter 3 examines the hypothesis that historically high levels of social mobility can lead to a culture of non-acceptance of redistribution and welfare provision as suggested by Piketty (1995). Based on a regional study of historical social mobility, we show that North England, which has historically had lower levels of welfare spending, consistent with the hypothesis also exhibits higher rates of mobility. Chapter 4 presents a novel way of testing the ‘crowding out hypothesis’ between government spending and private charitable activity. Using within-country heterogeneity in welfare spending under the Old Poor Laws, we find in fact a positive relationship: areas with more public provision also enjoyed higher levels of charitable income."
"Juan Carluccio, Banque de France";"EPRU";"2014-03-14";"01:00";"2014-03-14";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Trade, Wages, and Firm-Level Bargaining: Evidence from France"". Download abstract"
"Simon Quinn, University of Oxford: ""Committees and Status Quo Bias: Structural Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment""";"Department of Economics";"2014-03-17";"13:00";"2014-03-17";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"""Committees and Status Quo Bias: Structural Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment"" Abstract When members of a committee have incentives to agree with each other, they over-weight public information; this can generate status quo bias. We test this hypothesis using a novel field experiment --- a large debate tournament with random assignment of judges to committees --- and find that judges with greater desire to coordinate are more likely to vote for teams with better past records. To understand the magnitude and implications of these estimated effects, we then estimate with the same data using a structural approach. We develop a model in which committee members with incentives to cooperate receive noisy signals of candidate quality. In doing so, we develop new methods to allow for correlated unobservable and for dynamic incentives in discrete Bayesian games --- both of which, we show, are important for understanding the observed behaviour. Our results confirm that public information can cause committees to coordinate on weaker candidates."
"Line Elvstrøm Ekner";"Department of Economics";"2014-04-25";"12:30";"2014-04-25";"16:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Line Elvstrøm Ekner: ""Cointegration and Regime Switching Dynamics in Macroeconomic Applications"" This dissertation consists of three chapters, each of which can be read separately. In chapter 1, I study regime switching behavior in the macroeconomic relationship between output and the unemployment rate called Okun's law. The relationship is estimated for the U.S. by fitting a smooth transition vector error correction model with Okun’s law relationship defined as a linear cointegration relationship with non-linear short-run dynamics. Several estimation and specification issues are discussed. The two regimes of the model have asymmetric dynamics and can be classified as a recession regime and an expansion regime. Okun's coefficient is estimated to -0.28 and thereby close to the -1/3 rule of thumb benchmark originally suggested by Arthur Okun in 1962. In chapter 2 (joint with Emil Nejstgaard), we propose a reparametrization of the logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) model which facilitates identification and estimation of the so-called speed of transition parameter. We show that all derivatives of the likelihood function are approaching zero as the parameter measuring the speed of transition increases, and, hence, the threshold autoregressive model always represents at least a local maximum of the LSTAR likelihood function. We propose to use information criteria for the choice between the two models and show the effectiveness of this procedure by means of simulations. Two empirical applications illustrate the usefulness of our findings. Finally, chapter 3 contributes to the literature on the convenience yield on U.S. Treasury bonds caused by a demand for the extreme liquidity and safety offered by these bonds. Consequently, the convenience yield, as measured by the spread between yields on high grade corporate bonds and Treasury bonds, depends on the supply of Treasury bonds. The dynamics of the persistent variables measuring Treasury supply and convenience yield are modeled in a vector error correction model (VECM). The long-run relationship is negative reflecting a downward-sloping demand function for liquidity and safety. However, the short-run relationship is positive and identified by means of a structural VECM. The driving factor of the short-run result is the safety premium of the convenience yield. The results are robust to a potential kink in the demand relation estimated by a threshold VECM."
"Ulrik Haagen Nielsen";"Department of Economics";"2014-04-28";"14:00";"2014-04-28";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ulrik Haagen Nielsen: ""Social Dilemma Behavior"" This thesis consists of five self-contained research contributions that all investigate how humans make decisions when they are confronted with a social dilemma. One chapter investigates to what extent generous behavior is motivated by a desire to be good to others. This appears often not to be the case. Instead, many people are generous only because of a social norm or because they want to appear selfless to others. Two chapters investigate whether it is more intuitive to people to act prosocially or selfishly. By comparing people’s decisions to how long it take them to make these, it appears that there exists a social norm about acting cooperatively when others do so, too, and that it is intuitive to follow this social norm. Hence, genuinely selfish people must resolve a time-consuming moral dilemma before they free ride on others. It is also found that being generous in general, and not only cooperative, appears to be intuitive to people across the broad Danish adult population. Another chapter asks if the heterogeneity in adults' generosity can be explained by their socioeconomic background when measured by their parents' educational attainments. This follows up on a recent literature that has found that the socioeconomic status of children indeed correlates with how generous they are. It appears, however, that adults' other-regarding behavior, as opposed to children's, is not related to their socioeconomic background. The final chapter studies if multiple decision-makers, who organize themselves in a committee and share the responsibility of their joint decision, are more likely than individual decision-makers to implement economically efficient, but distributionally unfair policies. Both committee members and individual decision-makers can be held responsible and punished by those who are affected by the policies. It is found that shared responsibility in fact breeds unfairness. "
"Tommaso Nannicini, Bocconi University";"EPRU";"2014-04-30";"02:00";"2014-04-30";"03:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""How Do Voters Respond to Information? Evidence from a Randomized Campaign"". Download abstract"
"Ethan Ilzetski, London School of Economics: ""TBA""";"EPRU";"2014-05-02";"1:00pm";"2014-05-02";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";""
"Ivan Petrella, Birbeck College, University of London";"Department of Economics";"2014-05-12";"11:00";"2014-05-12";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"""Loss Aversion and the Asymmetric Transmission of Monetary Policy"" Abstract There is widespread evidence that monetary policy exerts asymmetric effects on output over contractions and expansions in economic activity, while price responses display no sizeable asymmetry. To rationalize these facts we develop a dynamicgeneral equilibrium model where households utility depends on consumption deviations from a reference level below which loss aversion is displayed. In line with the prospect theory pioneered by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), losses in consumption loom larger than gains. State-dependent degrees of real rigidity and elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption generate competing effects on output and inflation. Contractions face the Central Bank with higher responsiveness ofoutput to interest rate changes, as well as a latter aggregate supply schedule."
"Paolo Pin, Università degli Studi di Siena";"Department of Economics";"2014-05-13";"11:00";"2014-05-13";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"""Eciency and Stability in a Process of Teams Formation"" Abstract We analyze a team formation process that generalizes matching models and networkformation models, allowing for overlapping teams of heterogeneous size. We define aweak concept of stability, called myopic team-wise stability, which extends to our setupthe concept of pair-wise stability used in network formation models. Then we refine itin two ways: (i) through stochastic stability, where agents are still myopic and errorsoccurring with vanishing probability can dissolve or create teams, and (ii) throughcoalitional stability, where agents are perfectly rational and able to coordinate. We find that the rst concept has in many cases a much stronger predictive power thanthe second one. In particular, under some stark assumptions, coalitional stability inno way refines myopic team-wise stability. By contrast, stochastically stable statesare, under a very general assumption, feasible states that maximize the overall numberof activities performed by teams. Finally, we apply our main result to the marriageproblem, and we use the marriage theorem to obtain a characterization of stochasticallystable matching"
"Andreas Pick, Erasmus University, Rotterdam";"Department of Economics";"2014-05-20";"11:00";"2014-05-20";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"""Optimal forecasts from Markov switching models and the effect of uncertain break dates"" Abstract We study the e ect of uncertain break dates on forecasts based on optimal weighting of observations. We focus on Markov switching models where break dates correspond to switches between states. It emerges that the forecasting performance increases drastically when the construction of the optimal weights takes uncertainty around thetime of breaks into account. Analytic expressions for the weights are provided both under exact knowledge of the break points and when the break points are uncertain. In the latter case, forecasting improvements are substantial even in large samples. The performance of the optimal weights is shown through simulations and an application toforecasting U.S. GNP over 30 years. In the application we find that using the optimal weights leads to a significant reduction of the MSFE."
"Efrem Castelnuovo, University of Padova: ""Uncertain Times, Hard Times: Volatility Shocks in Recessions and Expansions""";"Department of Economics";"2014-05-20";"14:00";"2014-05-20";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Steffen Altman: ""Limited Memory, Deadlines, and Incentives";"Department of Economics";"2014-05-22";"14:00";"2014-05-22";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"""Limited Memory, Deadlines, and Incentives: Theory and Experimental Evidence"" Abstract This paper analyzes the behavioral consequences of deadlines and incentives in intertemporal choices when people are subject to limitations in memory and attention. We provide a simple theoretical framework for studying the influence of memory limitations on behavior and test the model’s key comparative statics with a randomized field experiment. In our model, an agent has to decide when to fulfil a task that requires costly effort provision. Postponing can be beneficial due to fluctuations in effort costs, but bears the risk that the task drops off the top of the agent’s mind. We analyze how deadlines and economic incentives influence the timing as well as the overall likelihood of task fulfillment. In the second part of the paper, we test the main predictions of the model in a field experiment with patients of a German dental practice. In the experiment, we exogenously vary how people are reminded about the need to arrange a new check-up appointment. We randomize both the deadline for arranging a checkup and patients’ incentives to make the appointment in time. In line with our theoretical framework, our empirical results indicate that stronger incentives as well as relatively tight, clearly specified deadlines encourage patients to make their check-ups earlier and at an overall higher frequency. Complementary evidence from a within-sample survey and an online survey experiment supports the notion that shorter deadlines may help peopleovercome delays due to memory limitations."
"Nadja Dwenger, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance";"EPRU";"2014-05-23";"01:00";"2014-05-23";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Extrinsic vs Intrinsic Motivations for Tax Compliance. Evidence from a Field Experiment in Germany"". Download paper"
"Fabrizio Germano, Universitat Pompeu Fabre: ""Time Scarcity and the Market for News""";"Department of Economics";"2014-05-23";"11:00";"2014-05-23";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"Department seminar";"""Time Scarcity and the Market for News"" Abstract We develop a theory of news coverage in environments of information abundance. News consumers are time-constrained and browse through news items that are available across competing outlets, choosing which ones to read or skip. Media firms are aware of consumers’ preferences and constraints, and decide on rankings of news items that maximize their profits. We find that, even when readers and outlets are rational and unbiased and when markets are competitive, readers may read more than they would like to, and the stories they read may be significantly different from the ones they prefer. Next, we derive implications on diverse aspects of new and traditional media. These include a rationale for tabloid news, a theory of optimal advertisement placement in newscasts, and a justification for readers’ migration to online media platforms in order to circumvent inefficient rankings found in traditional media. We then analyze methods for restoring reader-efficient standards and discuss the political economy implications of the theory."
"Mette Foged";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-06-04";"15:00";"2014-06-04";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Mette Foged: ""International Migration:A Destination Country and Migrant Perspective"" This dissertation is comprised of three self-contained chapters in the Economics of Migration. The first chapter investigates the economic incentives for international migration from a high wage country, more specifically Denmark. I follow the migrants abroad and link their labor market outcomes to reasons behind emigrating and work-activities abroad. Men migrate for job-related reasons, the majority due to a job-transfer, while women are accompanying their partner in the migration decision. This is reflected in the earnings and employment effects. Men gain, while women lose on average from the international mobility. Chapter two sets out to understand these gender-patterns. I show that couples are more likely to migrate if earnings are disproportionately due to one partner. Furthermore, families react equally strong to a male and a female relative earnings advantage within the household. This is evidence in favor of gender-neutral family migration, and contradicts a prevalent hypothesis that migration is husband-centered. Lower earnings and stronger educational homogamy among female headed households explain their lower mobility. The third chapter makes progress on a long standing issue in the Economics of Migration: the impacts of immigration on the labor market outcomes of native workers. We find that increased supply of low-skilled foreign workers pushed natives to pursue more complex and less manual-intensive jobs. The reallocation took place mainly through movement across firms and resulted in higher or unchanged wages for the native workers. Thus, immigration increased the mobility of natives, but we also find that it did not increase their probability of unemployment."
"Valerie Smeets, University of Aarhus: ""Rethinking Deindustrialization""";"EPRU";"2014-06-06";"1:00pm";"2014-06-06";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"Andreas Noack";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-06-18";"12:30";"2014-06-18";"12:30";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 35, seminar room (35.3.13)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Andreas Noack:""Some Mathematical and Computational Results for Vector Error Correction Models"" The first chapter analyses the nesting structure of the I(2) cointegrated vector autoregressive models. I(2) models with different number of cointegrating relations are shown to be nested and the implications for rank determination are discussed. A surprising result is that even though the I(2) models are formulated as submodels of I(1) models of same rank, some I(1) models are in fact submodels of I(2) models of higher rank.Recently, there has been some interest in so called near I(2) processes, but it has not yet been investigated how inference on cointegration vectors is affected when the process is close to the I(2) boundary. In the second chapter, definitions of near I(2) processes are discussed which proves to be a more complicated problem than defining near I(1) processes and inference on cointegration parameters is analysed by simulations.In the third chapter, my coauthor and I provide a fast algorithm for calculating the fractional difference of a time series. In standard implementations, the calculation speed (number of arithmetic operations) is of order $T^2$, where $T$ is the length of the time series. Our algorithm allows calculation speed of order $T \log T$. For moderate and large sample sizes, the difference in computation time is substantial.In the last chapter a similar method is used for fast simulation of fractionally cointegrated processes."
"EPRN conference 2014";"EPRN";"2014-06-19";"12:15pm";"2014-06-20";"3:55pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (35.01.06), 1353 Kbh K ";"Conference";"Economic Policy Research Network (EPRN) conference 2014, finder stedd. 19.-20. juni på Københavns Universitet. Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner"
"Benedikte Alkjærsig Bjerge";"Department of Economics";"2014-06-19";"12:30";"2014-06-19";"15:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Auditorium, 2. sal";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Benedikte Alkjærsig Bjerge: ""Essays on Social Network Formation in Sub-Saharan Africa"" The main focus of this thesis is social network formation in a development economic context. The main objective is to achieve a better understanding of how networks are formed and why they might have certain characteristics. These related objectives are addressed empirically from different angles using different methodological approaches. Three of the chapters investigate social network formation based on strategic network formation theory, while a fourth chapter takes a random graph approach using exponential random graph models. Based on a unique social network dataset consisting of households in rural Gambia, the first two chapters investigate mechanisms underlying inter-household land transactions. The first chapter documents the importance of pre-existing social networks in terms of social and geographical proximity, and show that only geographical proximity has an additional impact on allocative efficiency. The second chapter documents that land is allocated in a pro-poor way consistent with the presence of the norm-based access rule to vital resources. However, land allocation come with an obligation to reciprocate in the labor market, and poor households are only allocated land in relatively less population dense and more ethnic homogenous villages. The third chapter is based on the same dataset from rural Gambia, but examines how the network of land, labor and agricultural input transactions is formed. Findings suggest that structural mechanisms in the form of reciprocity and transitivity explain network formation to a greater extent than standard household attributes. The chapter further demonstrates that inability to account for structural mechanisms leads to upward biased parameter estimates of household attributes and dyad-specific characteristics. The fourth chapter is based on a different dataset concerned with micro, small and medium sized enterprises in Mozambique. The chapter establishes presence of positive assortative matching on co-membership in a business association, and find limited evidence supporting diffusion of business practices between co-members. This finding is consistent with the large heterogeneity across firms and slow convergence of productivity observed both across and within sectors in sub-Saharan Africa "
"Massimiliano Amarante, University of Montreal: What's Ambiguity?";"Department of Economics";"2014-06-24";"11:00";"2014-06-24";"12:15";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.1.21B";"MRU-seminar";"The concept of Ambiguity designates those situations where the information available to the decision maker is insufficient to form a probabilistic view of the world. Thus, it has provided the motivation for departing from the Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) paradigm. Yet, the formalization of the concept is missing. This is a grave omission as it leaves non-expected utility models hanging on a shaky ground. In particular, it leaves unanswered basic questions such as: (1) Does Ambiguity exist?; (2) If so, which situations should be labeled as ""ambiguous""?; (3) Why should one depart from Subjective Expected Utility (SEU) in the presence of Ambiguity?; and (4) If so, what kind of behavior should emerge in the presence of Ambiguity? The present paper fills these gaps. Specifically, it identifies those information structures that are incompatible with SEU theory, and shows that their mathematical properties are the formal counterpart of the intuitive idea of insufficient information. These are used to give a formal definition of Ambiguity and, consequently, to distinguish between ambiguous and unambiguous situations. Finally, the paper shows that behavior not conforming to SEU theory must emerge in correspondence of insufficient information and identifies the class of non-EU models that emerge in the face of Ambiguity. The paper also proposes a new comparative definition of Ambiguity, and discusses its relation with some of the existing literature. Paper: http://www.cireqmontreal.com/wp-content/uploads/cahiers/04-2014-cah.pdf"
"Agustin Casas, Universidad Carlos III: ""Who monitors the monitors? Effect of party observers on electoral outcomes""";"EPRU";"2014-07-29";"01:00";"2014-07-29";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"Download abstract"
"Emil Nejstgaard";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-08-15";"14:00";"2014-08-15";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Emil Nejstgaard: ""Theory and Applications in non-linear Cointegrated "" This PhD dissertation discusses inference and applications in dynamic-mixture cointegrated VAR models, called Autoregressive Conditional Root (ACR) models. These and similar models have found applications to many different data series within macroeconomics and finance. The thesis is comprised of four chapters. Chapter one discusses likelihood-based inference within a general ACR framework where, in particular, we consider consequences for inference when the cointegration relations are considered unknown, we include a restricted constant and let the error covariances be regime dependent. Chapter two discusses an algorithm that allows for estimation of the parameters in the ACR cointegrated model under generalized linear restrictions. In addition, we discuss testing based on likelihood ratio statistics and propose a bootstrap algorithm to simulate their distributions. The properties of the bootstrap is investigated by simulations. Chapter three illustrates the methodology by giving an analysis of two central crude oil prices. In addition, we show that the asymptotic theory of chapter one carries over to a slightly modified version of the model. Finally, chapter four discusses a parameter identification problem that arises in the ACR model as well as in other, similar non-linear autoregressive models."
"Christian Heebøll-Christensen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-09-05";"14:00";"2014-09-05";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Christian Heebøll-Christensen: ""Housing Markets in Booms and Busts. Essays on housing market structures and the policy response to boom-bust cycles"" This PhD dissertation seeks to understand the large swings in housing prices, which have been a crucial factor in the buildup and impact of the global financial crisis. The thesis is comprised of four chapters. Chapter one analyzes the recent boom-bust cycle in the US housing market from a regional perspective. Allowing for regional specific supply restrictions we estimate a simultaneous equation system for housing prices, housing supply and subprime lending in 247 urban areas. Our results indicate that more supply restricted areas are more exposed to financial accelerator effects, which explains the greater housing price volatility in these areas. Chapter two seeks to understand regional housing price dynamics by estimating regional-specific cointegrated VAR models for 100 US urban areas. Here our results demonstrate substantial differences in the market structures depending on different market characteristics. Specifically, the importance of subprime expansion as well as adaptive price expectation has been greater in supply restricted areas, in more populous areas and to some extend in states classified as non-recourse for residential mortgages. Chapter three is concerned with regional Danish housing price dynamics. Using panel restricted standard and global VAR models, we analyze the structures of 14 Danish housing markets. These models are then applied to investigate the factors behind the diverse regional Danish housing price booms of the 2000s. We find clear indications of price ripple effects between markets, as well as heterogeneous market structures related to individual area characteristics. Using counterfactual simulations, we find that financial deregulation and monetary policy were decisive in the pre-crisis housing price boom, especially in urban areas. In other areas, prices are relatively more sensitive to income and unemployment rate changes and, hence, fiscal policy had a somewhat larger influence in these areas. The Danish property tax freeze from 2002 and onwards is found to be price destabilizing, but generally it had a minor influence. The last chapter compares the financial destabilizing effects of excess liquidity versus credit growth, applying a cointegrated VAR model based on national US data. Consistent with monetarist theory, the results suggest a stable money supply-demand relation in the period in question. However, the related excess liquidity only affects housing prices after year 2000. Meanwhile, persistent cycles of real housing prices and leverage appear to have been driven by real credit shocks, in accordance with post-Keynesian theories on financial instability. Importantly, however, the two types of mechanisms are found to be time varying and closely related, which could explain the various results found in earlier related litterateur."
"EDGE Jamboree";"Department of Economics";"2014-09-06";"";"2014-09-07";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Annual meeting for the European Doctoral Group in Economics";"Annual meeting for the European Doctoral Group in Economics "
"Jakob Egholt Søgaard, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2014-09-12";"01:00";"2014-09-12";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""Labour Supply and Optimization Frictions: Evidence from the Danish student labour market"". Download paper"
"Michael Bergman, University of Copenhagen";"EPRU";"2014-09-19";"01:00";"2014-09-19";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""Phoenix Rising From the Ashes: New Evidence on National Fiscal Rules in the EU"". Download abstract"
"Tommy Sveen,  Norwegian Business School";"EPRU";"2014-09-26";"01:00";"2014-09-26";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"EPRU seminar";"""Sectoral interdependence and business cycle synchronization in small open economies""."
"Professor Massimo Motta, Chief Economist, the Commission of Europe: ""Exclusionary abuses""";"Department of Economics";"2014-10-06";"9:00am";"2014-10-06";"11:00am";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 1.1.18), 1353 Kbh K";"Department seminar";""
"Zeuthen Lectures 2014";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-10-07";"";"2014-10-09";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Seminarum, 2. sal";"";"Zeuthen Lectures: Orazio Attanasio: ""The Life Cycle Model of Consumption and Labour Supply Choices: an Introduction to a Simple Model"" Zeuthen Lectures 2014 7.10. Orazio Attanasio. Zeuthen Lecture I: “The Life Cycle Model of Consumption and Labour Supply Choices: an Introduction to a Simple Model”.14:15 – 16:00, in ""Det Store Auditorium"", Building 26, 2nd floor”, Room 26.2.21. Zeuthen lectures. Read more: https://www.econ.ku.dk/ZeuthenLectures/8.10. Orazio Attanasio. Zeuthen Lecture II: “Towards Less Restrictive Models”.10:00 – 12:00, in ""Det Store Auditorium"", Building 26, 2nd floor”, Room 26.2.21. Zeuthen lectures. Read more: https://www.econ.ku.dk/ZeuthenLectures/9.10. Orazio Attanasio. Zeuthen Lecture III: “The Empirics of the Life Cycle Model”.10:00 – 12:00, in ""Det Store Auditorium"", Building 26, 2nd floor”, Room 26.2.21.Zeuthen lectures. Read more: https://www.econ.ku.dk/ZeuthenLectures/"
"Zeuthen Workshop 2014";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-10-09";"";"2014-10-10";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Det Store Seminarrum, 2. sal";"";"Zeuthen Lectures"
"Albrecht Glitz, Pompeu Fabra";"EPRU";"2014-10-10";"13:00";"2014-10-10";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"""Information Flow in Networks of Former Coworkers"". Download abstract"
"Kristoffer Sylvester Markwardt";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-10-20";"14:00";"";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Kristoffer Sylvester Markwardt: ""Education and Unemployment Insurance"" This dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters. The first chapter estimates long-run private returns to schooling. We study men who were randomly assigned to nine months of military service by a peacetime draft lottery. Military service was a disruption to the draftees' educational career and thus increased the relative cost of individual human capital investment. We find that military service reduced schooling by nine months for these men. Exploiting this exogenous variation in schooling, we estimate: (1) the average private financial returns to schooling over the entire working career; and (2) the father-child intergenerational transmission of schooling. We find a strong schooling effect on lifetime labor earnings but the effect does not carry over to the next generation. The second chapter focuses on two competing explanations for the private financial returns to schooling: the job market signaling model and the human capital model. The literature suggests different strategies to test one against the other. I apply two existing empirical tests for job market signaling within the same institutional setting and create a link between them, using available information on sibling type, in particular twin type. I then propose a new, more precise test of this hypothesis, exploiting differences in the degree of genetic similarity between monozygotic and dizygotic twins and the panel structure of my data. My findings are in line with the literature and consistent with (some degree of) job market signaling. The final chapter is about the effect of liquidity on choices under uncertainty, investigating whether private informal insurance (a liquid buffer stock) is an inferior, dominated alternative to formal public insurance, or if the two options are mutual substitutes. Exploiting a sudden introduction of home equity loans in Denmark, we show that homeowners who experienced a positive liquidity shock were less likely to sign up for unemployment insurance afterwards compared to other homeowners, thereby showing that private informal insurance can substitute formal public insurance."
"Hans Henrik Sievertsen";"";"2014-10-23";"14:00";"";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";" Ph.d.-forsvar: Hans Henrik Sievertsen: From Birth to Graduation – Essays on the Economics of Education and early Interventions This PhD dissertation consists of three self-contained essays which revolve around the question of how external factors affect the individual's health and educational attainment. While each essay is a result of independent work, the three essays as a whole cover three important events in the individual's life: birth, school enrollment and the transmission from school to the labor market. In the first essay I estimate the effects of early hospital discharge after birth on child and mother well-being. Using Danish administrative data, I find that a same-day discharge has negative short- and longer-run health effects for the child and the mother, and a negative effect on the child’s primary school performance. I find that privileged mothers compensate for the lack of treatment in hospital by increasing their investment in the child, while disadvantaged mothers reinforce the effect of reduced treatment by reducing their investments. The parental responses to treatment may explain why the longer-run health and schooling effects are heterogeneous with respect to initial child resources and mother characteristics. In the second essay I identify the effect of school starting age on non-cognitive skills using Danish survey- and register-based data. I exploit the discontinuity in school starting age around January 1st, which is caused by the rule that Danish children should enroll in school the calendar year they turn six. I find that a delayed school start reduces hyperactivity, a measure with strong negative links to student achievement. However, the estimated effects on non-cognitive dimensions with weaker links to student achievement (emotion, conduct, peer relations, and social skills) are small and statistically insignificant. In the third essay I use Danish administrative data to show that local unemployment has both a short- and a long-run effect on school enrollment and completion. The short-run effect causes students to advance their enrollment, and consequently their completion, of additional schooling. The long-run effect causes students who would otherwise never have enrolled to enroll and complete schooling. The effects are strongest for children of low educated parents."
"Dirk Niepelt, Study Center Gerzensee";"EPRU";"2014-10-24";"01:00";"2014-10-24";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU";"""Austerity"" Download abstract"
"Fiseha Haile Gebregziabher";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-10-24";"14:00";"2014-10-24";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Fiseha Haile Gebregziabher: Essays in Empirical Development Economics: Insights from Time-Series and Panel Data Analysis This dissertation comprises three self-contained chapters focusing on empirical questions in development economics. The first chapter investigates the long-run effects of foreign aid in Ethiopia for the period 1960-2009. More specifically, we analyze whether aid from different sources (multilateral and bilateral aid) and different aid modalities (grants and loans) exert different long-run impacts on several macroeconomic variables. Using a well-specified cointegrated VAR model as a statistical benchmark, we show that aid affects income, investment, and imports positively, whereas it is negatively linked with government consumption. Disaggregation of aid flows unveils that this effect is due to aid from bilateral donors and aid in the form of grants. The second chapter examines the link between adjustment programs and long-run economic performance in 18 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 1960-2009. During the 1980s and 1990s, IMF and World Bank-sponsored structural adjustment programs have dominated policy-making in SSA. Most SSA countries adopted a wide array of policy reforms to arrest macroeconomic imbalances and foster long-term growth. Applying our multivariate cointegration model to each of these countries, we find that only a handful of countries have shown positive and sustained results. The first-generation adjustment package was associated with resurgence of growth in GDP, export, and investment only in two countries. Taken as a whole, countries in the CFA franc zone fared much worse than their non-CFA counterparts. The third and final chapter (joint with Miguel Niño-Zarazúa) assesses the impact of government spending on social sectors (health, education, and social protection) on two major indicators of aggregate welfare (the Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) and child mortality), using a panel dataset comprising 55 countries from 1990 to 2009. Notwithstanding the widespread consensus in policy circles, there is surprisingly little rigorous empirical work on the effectiveness of social sector spending and the existing evidence remains inconclusive. Applying a broad range of econometric methods, we find fairly strong and robust evidence that social spending has a significantly positive causal effect on the IHDI, while health spending has a significant negative impact on child mortality rate."
"John Rust, Georgetown University: ""Timber Cycles""";"EPRU/CAM";"2014-10-31";"1:00pm";"2014-10-31";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU/CAM seminar";"AbstractTimber harvesting is heavily regulated in Canada and in British Columbia, the province where the largest amount of timber is harvested, the Crown owns over 95% of all timberland and issues timber harvesting licenses to loggers and charges them a fee for cutting the timber called stumpage. In addition, the Crown imposes an annual constraint on timber harvests called the Annual Allowable Cut in order to insure ""sustainable harvests"" of timber. The implication is that timber harvesting under a private ownership scenario, such as exists in the United States where the majority of timberland is privately owned, could be ""unsustainable"". We address this question using biological growth models for timber developed by the British Columbia Ministry of forests and a database of nearly 700,000 hectares of land in the Fraser Timber Supply Area of British Columbia with detailed geographic information that allows us to predict timber harvesting costs on a hectare by hectare basis. We conduct a counterfactual simulation of what timber harvesting would be if the Crown privatized the land in the Fraser Timber Supply Area. We find that there would be substantially *less* timber harvesting under the privatized scenario and that the Crown would earn substantially more in present value from selling off this timberland to privatize it than the present value of stumpage revenues. We suggest that the true motivation of regulation of timber harvesting is to subsidize lumber mills and production of finished lumber from the timber. British Columbia has strict raw log export restrictions that result in equivalent logs selling for two to three times as much in the US, less than 100 kilometers south of the border. We argue that the harvest and trade restrictions are a form of Canadian protectionism to favor its sawmill industry at the expense of tax revenues and its logging industry. Our results have implications on the question of whether Canada is ""dumping"" lumber in the US, a disagreement that lead to the US vs. Canada Softwood Lumber Dispute. Though the World Trade Organization concluded that the subsidies Canada provides to its lumber industry were de minimis, we conclude that actually these subsidies are substantial and confirm the allegations of the US that Canada is indeed engaging in the dumping of lumber in the US market. Our results suggest that this Canadian protectionism has both adverse economic and environmental consequences"
"Jesper Pedersen, Nationalbanken ";"EPRU Policy seminar";"2014-11-07";"01:00";"2014-11-07";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU policy seminar";"""A Taylor rule for Fiscal Policy in a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime""."
"Janne Tukiainen, Government Institute for Economic Research: ""Does Regression Discontinuity Design Work? Evidence from Random Election Outcomes""";"EPRU";"2014-11-21";"01:00";"2014-11-21";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"Abstract We use data for 198121 candidates and 1351 random election outcomes to estimate the effect of incumbency status on future electoral success. We find no evidence of incumbency advantage using data on randomized elections. In contrast, regression discontinuity design, using optimal bandwidths, produces a positive and significant incumbency effect. Using even narrower bandwidths aligns the results with those obtained using the randomized elections. So does the bias-correction of Calonico et al. (forthcoming). Standard validity tests are not useful in detecting the problems with the optimal bandwidths. The appropriate bandwidth seems narrower in larger elections and is thus context specific. Download paper"
"Gitte Yding Salmansen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-11-26";"14:00";"2014-11-26";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Gitte Yding Salmansen: Essays on Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions This dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters on monetary policy and fiscal policy. All three papers concern the effects of monetary and fiscal policy in the presence of financial frictions. The first paper analyzes an economy, at with monetary policy at the zero lower bound, ie. in a liquidity trap. I introduce a persistence channel, in which the expected duration of the liquidity trap depends negatively on output. This persistence channel makes fiscal stimulus much more potent. In the second and third paper i consider limited asset market participation (LAMP) in a small open economy. I consider a positive technology shock and find the introduction of LAMP implies the negative response of hours is either halved or hardly affected, depending on the monetary policy. In the last paper I analyze fiscal policy and show that LAMP only has minor effects on the response of output to a government spending shock due to opposite movements in consumption and net exports."
"Katarina Juselius, emeritus forelæsning: ""Searching for a theory that fits the data""";"Department of Economics";"2014-11-28";"15:00";"2014-11-28";"16:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 35.01.06), 1353 Kbh K ";"Emeritus forelæsning ved professor Katarina Juselius.";"Professor Katarina Juselius bliver nu emeritus. I den anledning indbyder Økonomisk Institut til Emeritus forelæsning med efterfølgende reception. Program 15:00: Velkomst ved institutleder Christian Schultz 15:05: Emeritus forelæsning ved professor Katarina Juselius 16:00: Reception Kontakt: Christian Schultz"
"Andreas Lund Hetland ";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2014-12-02";"14:00";"2014-12-02";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Andreas Lund Hetland: On Particle Filter-Based Estimation and Inference for Dynamic Models with Unobserved Variables This PhD thesis discusses particle filter-based methods for optimal filtering and likelihood-based inference in dynamic models with unobserved variables. It is a general feature of these models that it is not possible to obtain closed-form expressions for the optimal filtering problem and model likelihood. Particle filters constitute a family of simulation-based approximation methods that produce approximations to these intractable quantities. The thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. The first chapter reviews recent induction-based arguments for the asymptotic properties of standard particle filters with multinomial resampling. Specifically, we consider the asymptotic properties of the particle filter-based approximations of the optimal filtering problem and model likelihood when the number of particles tends to infinity and the observations are fixed. The second chapter proposes and studies the hybrid particle filter, which enables optimal filtering and parameter inference for a new class of dynamic factor models with nonlinear non-Gaussian common component. The third chapter proposes and studies the stochastic stationary root model, which is a multivariate nonlinear state space model with a cointegration-like structure and interpretation. Chapter two and three contain simulation studies and empirical illustrations of the proposed methods."
"""Financing the Future"": International conference in honour of Niels Thygesen";"Department of Economics";"2014-12-05";"08:30am";"2014-12-05";"7:30pm";"University of Copenhagen, Main Building, Frue Plads 4, 1168  København K ";"International conference in honour of Niels Thygesen: ""FINANCING THE FUTURE"" - Analytical and policy challenges in Europe, China and in an interdependent world.";"Download program Contact person: Mary-Ann Reland (Phone: 35 32 30 16)"
"Fernando Broner, CREI: ""Rethinking the Effects of Financial Liberalization""";"EPRU";"2014-12-05";"1:00pm";"2014-12-05";"2:15pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"AbstractDuring the last few decades, many emerging markets have lifted restrictions on cross-border financial transactions. The conventional view was that this would allow these countries to: (i) receive capital inflows from advanced countries that would finance higher investment and growth; (ii) insure against aggregate shocks and reduce consumption volatility; and (iii) accelerate the development of domestic financial markets and achieve a more efficient domestic allocation of capital and better sharing of individual risks. However, the evidence suggests that this conventional view was wrong. In this paper, we present a simple model that can account for the observed effects of financial liberalization. The model emphasizes the role of imperfect enforcement of domestic debts and the interactions between domestic and international financial transactions. In the model, financial liberalization might lead to different outcomes: (i) domestic capital flight and ambiguous effects on net capital inflows, investment, and growth; (ii) large capital inflows and higher investment and growth; or (iii) volatile capital flows and unstable domestic financial markets. The model shows how these outcomes depend on the level of development, the depth of domestic financial markets, and the quality of institutions."
"Joel Slemrod, University of Michigan: ""Does Credit-Card Information reporting improve small-Business Tax Compliance?""";"EPRU";"2014-12-12";"01:00";"2014-12-12";"02:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRU seminar";"Download paper"
"EPRN Policy Seminar om indretning af dagpengesystemet v. professor og vismand Michael Svarer";"EPRU Policy seminar";"2014-12-19";"10:00am";"2014-12-19";"11:00am";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K";"EPRN Policy seminar";"ABSTRACT: Oplæg om ”Dagpengereform, elitebilistmodel og konjunkturafhængighed”Deltagelse er gratis. Pladser fordeles efter ”først-til-mølle” princippet. Tilmelding ved at sende e-mail til tine.ceccardi@econ.ku.dk"
"Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen";"Department of Economics";"2015-01-08";"14:00";"2015-01-08";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen: ""Life-Cycle Consumption and Retirement within the Family"" This dissertation contains four self-contained chapters. The first two chapters are primarily methodological. The first chapter evaluates two recent numerical approaches to solving and estimating stochastic dynamic programming models. In this chapter, I show that the method used in all subsequent chapters is extremely computationally efficient and accurate. The second chapter investigates how alternative estimators, based on the consumption Euler equation, perform. These estimators are work horses in the existing literature on intertemporal consumption allocation. I show how these estimators produce biased estimates of the effect of children on consumption if risk averse households face credit constraints. I also show that these estimators may be used to estimate bounds on the effect of children on consumption. The two subsequent chapters are applications of the methods, techniques and challenges studied in the first two chapters. Specifically, in chapter three, I estimate how children affect consumption over the life cycle. I find that for Danish and US households (in the PSID) the effect of children on consumption is smaller than previously assumed. In the fourth chapter, I analyze how Danish couples enjoy leisure time together. I find that leisure is twice as enjoyable if a spouse is also retired. I also show that ignoring leisure complementarities underestimates the government surplus from increasing the retirement age significantly."
"Andreas Madum";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2015-04-17";"14:30";"2015-04-17";"17:30";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Andreas Madum: ""Deciding Before an Audience. Essays in Applied Microeconomics"" This thesis is made up of five self-contained chapters. While the chapters deal with quite different topics, they are related in the sense that they each investigate how decision-makers are affected when they are being monitored by others. Chapters 1 and 2 are motivated by work in political psychology and introduce ‘behavioral’ assumptions into otherwise fairly standard game theoretical models of political behavior. More specifically, chapter 1 studies political bargaining while chapter 2 studies the dynamic through which groups provide collective action. Chapter 3 studies conformity through voting decisions in expert committees. First, a simple game theoretical model where some experts prefer not being the only one to vote against the majority is set up and solved. Then the model’s implications are tested using data from voting in expert committees under the United States Food and Drug Administration. The data supports the notion that experts are reluctant to be the first to vote against the majority, but once someone else has done so, this reluctance disappears. Chapters 4 and 5 study the causes (consequences) of turnover among managers in professional American football (Danish soccer). Chapter 4 finds that media scrutiny, though rather uninformative about a manager’s performance, is a significant driver of turnover decisions. Chapter 5 shows that Danish soccer team perform significantly better following managerial turnover. This is surprising, as previous studies based on data from other leagues find no such effects. A possible explanation is that decision-makers within Danish teams are subject to less pressure from media, fans, and sponsors which could prohibit unproductive scapegoating of managers."
"CNEE Meeting ";"Department of Economics";"2015-04-29";"11:00am";"2015-04-29";"6:00pm";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"CNEE (Copenhagen Network of Experimental Economists) workshop";"Download program"
" Jakob Egholt Søgaard";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2015-06-08";"14:00";"";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Jakob Egholt Søgaard: ""Assorted Essays in Economics: Inequality, Labor Supply and Gender Roles"" The chapters collected in this PhD dissertation consist of 3 self-contained papers within the fields of public finance and labor economics. In the first chapter written jointly with Anthony Atkinson, we use historical records and micro data on tax returns to construct internationally comparable estimates income inequality in Denmark over the last 140 years. The study shows that income inequality and top income shares have declined during several distinct phases in between periods of stability. In the second chapter I investigate the nature of optimization frictions by studying the labor market of Danish students. I find that the considered labor market is significantly affected by optimizations frictions, which masks the bunching at kink points normally associated with a positive labor supply elasticity under standard theory. In third chapter written jointly with Henrik Kleven and Camille Landais, we use Danish administrative data to show that most of the remaining gender gap in earnings can be attributed to the dynamic effects of having children. The arrival of children leads to a long-run penalty in female earnings of 21% driven in roughly equal proportions by labor force participation, hours of work, and wage rates. The fraction of the aggregate gender gap that can be explained by children is strongly increasing over time – from 30% in 1980 to 80% in 2011 – showing that non-child reasons for gender inequality have largely disappeared."
"César Antonio Salazar Espinoza";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2015-06-17";"12:00";"";"15:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 35, (35.3.12)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: César Antonio Salazar Espinoza: ""Essays on risk management of natural resources in developing countries"" This thesis consists of 4 self-contained chapters, all examining how production risk from natural shocks affects decisions regarding the management of natural resources and agriculture in a developing country context. Three of the chapters investigate households’ risk-management strategies in resource-based activities, while a fourth chapter focuses on market functioning at the face of climate shocks. The first chapter uses a unique census data from artisanal fisheries in Chile to examine the mechanisms by which revenues are distributed to labor and capital, and how these distributions affect fishing returns. The results support mechanisms associated with bargaining power, monitoring costs and outside options, and also reveal higher fishing returns with larger crew profit shares. Effects seem to differ across fisheries. The second chapter uses a balanced panel of rural households from Mozambique to provide an empirical examination of the impact of weather shocks on crop portfolio choices as well as on the persistency of these changes. Results indicate that crop choice is sensitive to past weather shocks, and reallocation seems temporary. This is consistent with a self-insurance approach and buffer stock arguments. The third chapter employs rural household data of rice producers from Vietnam to examine the risk effect of pesticide use and the source of this risk. Results reveal that higher uncertainty regarding rainfall relative to pest may cause pesticide use to exhibit risk-increasing characteristics. This finding is consistent across a lottery and a production function approach. The fourth chapter studies the link between spatial market efficiency and weather shocks using market price and transport cost data from Mozambique. Results indicate that price dispersion is lower during drought periods and higher after a flood shock. This finding is consistent with a supply shock after a drought and a food transport shock emerging after a flood. Moreover, flood effects are larger among closer markets and connected with poorer infrastructure."
"Anna Folke Larsen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2015-08-18";"15:00";"2015-08-18";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.1.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Anna Folke Larsen: ""Agricultural technology adoption, food security, poverty and child health: Assessments of an agricultural intervention in Tanzania"" In this PhD dissertation I study different aspects of a Farmer Field School intervention taking place in northern Tanzania in three self-contained chapters. The first two chapters are coauthored with Helene Bie Lilleør. In the first chapter we assess the impact on food security and poverty among households who participated in the Farmer Field School project. We find that participating households become more food secure but we do not detect any impact on poverty. In the second chapter we analyze whether the improved food security has affected child health in the participating households. We find that children who are young enough to have fully benefitted from the project become taller and that they are less likely to be undernourished. The main component of the Farmer Field School project was the introduction of improved banana cultivation. In the third chapter I analyze how banana cultivation diffuses to non-participants in the project villages through networks. I find that a farmer who discusses farming issues with a project participant is much more likely to adopt improved banana cultivation. A plausible explanation for the large network effects found is that not only information, but also inputs for banana cultivation are shared in the networks."
"Thais Lærkholm Jensen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2015-09-07";"15:00";"";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21(The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Thais Lærkholm Jensen: Credit Supply and The Real Economy"" An entrepreneur with a great new idea for starting a new business, or a young couple looking to buy a house will likely find themselves in a position where they will need to ask others for money to carry out their ambitions. In this situation, they will have to turn to the financial markets to assist them in making these dreams come true, and in effect they are intrinsically dependent on the availability of credit. The recent financial crisis, with the recession that ensued, has accentuated the need for understanding how the financial markets and in particular the availability of loanable funds impacts the economy at large, including the entrepreneur and the couple buying a house. The fundamental challenge, however, in studying the role of credit in shaping real outcomes, is that the demand and supply of credit is determined contemporaneously, leaving a spectator wondering to what extent an observed fall in lending is driven by consumers and businesses reducing the demand for credit or, if it is in turn banks that ration the supply of credit. To enhance our knowledge of this illusive topic, the principal focus of this dissertation is concerned with empirically separating the demand and supply for credit to make a causal interpretation of how credit supply shape outcomes for entrepreneurs, households and businesses. The results obtained in this dissertation strive to enhance our understanding of how credit supply interacts with the real economy and guide policy makers concerned with designing a financial system that on the one hand enables and promotes growth while at the same time is also resilient to future financial crises. "
"Anders Ib Munk-Nielsen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2015-11-13";"14:00";"2015-11-13";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen,CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21, (The Large Seminar Room, 2nd floor).";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"The car sector is at the same time one of the key sectors for environmental goals and one of the biggest sources of tax revenue in Denmark. The purpose of the three chapters in this dissertation is to broaden our understanding of how households respond to taxation in terms of their driving, which cars they choose to buy, how long they own them, etc. The dissertation consists of three papers that all rely on Danish register data, which covers the full population of households and cars matched with data on driving. The first paper looks at how households change their driving in response to changes in fuel prices. In particular, we exploit a unique work distance measure to explore the heterogeneity in the fuel price elasticity, which is key for understanding the distributional effects of fuel taxation. The second paper looks at new car purchases and how households substitute between the different available car types, taking into account their subsequent driving. Two major Danish reforms, in 1997 and 2007, are analyzed and the main conclusion is that a simple fuel tax would have been a more cost-effective tool. The third chapter proposes a novel model of household car ownership and use that features endogeneous scrappage and used car prices. Households make their car decisions in a life-cycle framework and simultaneously make up the supply and demand sides in the used car market, which means that we can explicitly form the excess demand functions by aggregation. Simulations from the model illustrate the importance of accounting for macro shocks and equilibrium price adjustments in modeling the scrappage pattterns and the movements in the car age distribution over time."
"Rasmus Søndergaard";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS, building 26, Large Seminar Room (26.2.21)";"2015-11-16";"15:00";"2015-11-16";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen: ""Inference and Testing in Multivariate GARCH Models"" Most financial applications are, by nature, multivariate with estimates and forecasts of conditional covariance matrices as important components as in, for example, the rich asset pricing, portfolio choice, and risk management literature. One way of obtaining such estimates and forecasts is by estimation of multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models - a class of models that, by now, is heavily used within the fields of financial econometrics and empirical finance. My thesis consists of three chapters on estimation of and large-sample inference in multivariate GARCH models. In the first chapter we consider asymptotic inference in the multivariate BEKK-GARCH model based on (co)variance targeting (VT). By definition the VT estimator is a two-step estimator and the theory presented is based on expansions of the modified likelihood function, or estimating function, corresponding to these two steps. Strong consistency is established under weak moment conditions, while sixth-order moment restrictions are imposed to establish asymptotic normality. Existing literature on VT estimation of multivariate GARCH models, including the first chapter of this thesis, relies on at least finite fourth-order moments of the data generating process in order to derive the large-sample distribution of the variance targeting estimator. Such moment conditions may not be a realistic assumption as financial return distributions are typically found to be heavy tailed. In the second chapter we consider the large-sample properties of the VT estimator for the multivariate extended constant conditional correlation (ECCC-)GARCH model when the distribution of the data generating process has infinite fourth-order moments. Using non-standard limit theory we derive new results for the estimator stating that, under suitable conditions, its limiting distribution is multivariate stable (different from a Gaussian distribution). The rate of consistency of the estimator is shown to depend on the tail shape of the data generating process. Lastly, in the third chapter we consider testing for volatility spillovers (or interactions) in ECCC-GARCH models. The proposed tests imply that the parameter vector under the null hypothesis lies on the boundary of the maintained hypothesis, which leads to non-standard limiting distributions of the test statistics. The large-sample properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator are derived together with limiting distributions of the related Lagrange multiplier, Wald, and quasi-likelihood ratio statistics. As an empirical illustration, the proposed tests are applied to test for volatility spillovers between returns on foreign exchange rates."
"Jeppe Druedahl";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2015-12-01";"15:00";"2015-12-01";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Jeppe Druedahl: ""Microfunding Consumption. Uncertainty, liquidity and heterogeneity"" This PhD thesis consists of four self-contained chapters on microfounding the consumption behavior of households in the presence of idiosyncratic income and credit risk, transaction costs, and preference heterogeneity. The first chapter addresses the credit card debt puzzle by constructing a model where it can be resolved by a combination of: (a) specifying credit cards as long-term revolving debt contracts which are partly irrevocable from the lender side, and (b) shocks to the availability of new credit. The second chapter relies on a similar specification of the mortgage contract as being both long-term and in gross debt, to improve our understanding of the life-cycle dynamics of the home ownership rate. The third chapter estimates a non-parametric distribution of preferences using imputed consumption data from the Danish income and wealth registers, and shows that the estimated degree of heterogeneity in impatience and risk aversion is far from enough to explain the observed wealth inequality. The final and fourth chapter shows that adding cyclical variation in idiosyncratic income risk, and in the tightness of the collateral constraint, strongly amplify the model-implied cyclical drop in the share of households who adjust their durable stock during recessions in a standard buffer-stock consumption model extended with a durable good, where trading is subject to transaction costs. All the four chapters rely on state-of-the-art computational methods to efficiently solve the proposed models, which due to the presence of non-convexities typically are non-standard."
"Sebastian Barfort";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS, building 26, Large Seminar Room (26.2.21)";"2015-12-02";"13:00";"2015-12-02";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Sebastian Barfort: ""Essays in Political Economics: Behaviour, Selection and Preferences"" The chapters collected in this PhD dissertation consist of four self-contained papers within the field of political economy. The first essay studies the effect of economic hardship on voters' preferences for redistribution. The main finding is that negative economic shocks are strongly related to attitude polarization: voters who hold pro-market ideological beliefs decrease their demand for redistribution in response to an economic shock. I find evidence that the effect works in the opposite direction for individuals who are skeptical of free-market ideologies. The second essay, written jointly with David Dreyer Lassen, Nikolaj Harmon, and Søren Serritzlew, studies the selection of politicians into public office. We focus in particular on how two key components of government architecture, size and scope, affect who runs for office as well as who is ultimately elected. The main finding is that increases in the size of local jurisdictions implies that more competent politicians run for office and are elected. The third essay, written jointly with Frederik Hjorth, Nikolaj Harmon, and Asmus Leth Olsen, asks what drives the selection of individuals into public service in the world's least corrupt country, Denmark. We find that dishonest individuals are less likely to want to enter public service in Denmark. Furthermore, we find that dishonest individuals who self-select into high paying private sector careers - such as finance - are less altruistic and place higher weight on their own earning opportunities. We also find that men are more likely to be dishonest than women and less likely to work in the public sector. The fourth essay investigates the effect of panel attrition for important correlates in political science research. I find strong evidence of systematic panel attrition. However, the main finding of the essay is that correcting for selective participation has no discernible effect on well known correlates of political attitudes."
"Svend Greniman Andersen ";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-01-22";"14:00";"2016-01-22";"14:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"PhD-defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Svend Greniman Andersen:""Offshoring, innovation and wages"" This PhD thesis consists of three self-contained chapters all centered on investigating the effects of globalization on firm- and worker-level outcomes such as innovation and wages. In the first chapter, I look at the complementarity between production and research and development (RnD) in Danish manufacturing firms. I find that firms taking increasing advantage of offshoring of production tend to also engage in further RnD domestically. Moreover, they tend to reallocate RnD resources toward product RnD, possibly at the expense of process RnD. The second chapter shifts focus to the labor market for top managers, or CEOs. We first construct firm complexity measures related to globalization and document novel stylized facts about globalization and CEO compensation. We then investigate whether the rise in CEO compensation can be explained by increasing firm-level globalization and find that changes in the export volume correlates with changes in CEO compensation, while firm complexity measures play a minor role. This pattern persists when conditioning on firm size. Finally, we find suggestive evidence in favor of the hypothesis that externally hired CEOs are less likely to be rewarded for exogenous changes in exports than internally hired CEOs. The third and final chapter takes a broader view and estimates the effects of offshoring on worker wages. By constructing an occupation-specific offshoring measure using firm-level data, I can allow for occupation-wide general equilibrium effects and achieve a more precise measure of offshoring and a clear identification. I find little or no evidence of offshoring on wages, possibly reflecting relatively low mobility of workers between the manufacturing and service sectors. All chapters rely on detailed register data on individuals, firms, RnD and trade flows, and instrumental variable strategies are employed to circumvent potential endogeneity issues."
"Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS, building 26, Large Seminar Room (26.2.21)";"2016-02-22";"12:30";"2016-02-22";"15:00";"";"PhD-defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha: ""Macroeconomic Shocks and Inflation, Social Protection and Aid Effectiveness"" This thesis comprises five self-contained chapters. The first chapter studies how participation in social protection programs affects household size and composition. The issue is investigated using survey data from the Ethiopian Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), where households receive cash transfers conditional on participation in labor intensive public works. The chapter also looks into potential mechanisms through which participation in the program may lead to changes in household size and composition. The second chapter builds upon chapter one and further examines how the level of financial gain from participation in PSNP and the associated labor supply requirement affect household structure. In particular this chapter aims to disentangle the income effect of the program from the effect that comes through the labor supply conditionality and investigates how these two channels work in terms of changing household structure. The third chapter empirically examines how macroeconomic shocks affect consumer price and its disaggregated components in Ethiopia with a particular focus on shocks to the nominal exchange rate. This is done using a Structural VAR approach where identification of the structural shocks is achieved based on a combination of short and long run restrictions. The last two chapters present empirical evidence on aid effectiveness focusing on the impact of aid on economic growth. While chapter four presents evidence using a meta-analysis tool to assess what the accumulated empirical evidence, on average, has to say about aid effectiveness, chapter five employs a panel VAR model and examines the impact of aid on growth for a group of countries."
"Edward John Dorell Webb";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-04-27";"09:00";"2016-04-27";"12:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"PhD defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Edward John Dorell Webb:"" Attention and perception in decision-making and interactions"" This PhD thesis contains six related, but self-contained chapters studying the influence of attention and perception in economics. A variety of techniques are used, including eye-tracking, lab experiments and theoretical modelling. The first two chapters consider attention, beginning with an eye-tracking experiment, joint work with Andreas Gotfredsen, Carsten S. Nielsen and Alexander Sebald, to test a prediction of salience theory. We find significant numbers of a certain type of preference reversal, in which a consumer tends to choose a low quality good with a low price level but a high quality good with a high price level, despite the price of the quality premium being held constant. Salience theory proposes attention as the driver behind this choice pattern. However, subjects' allocation of attention as measured by eye-tracking is inconsistent with salience theory. In the second chapter, a new theory of warm glow attention is proposed, in which individuals allocate their attention to their environment to benefit themselves as much as possible, thus creating a “warm glow”. The power and versatility of the theory are demonstrated in several applications: endowment effects, spurious product differentiation, overconfidence, project overruns and slow technology adoption. The following three chapters deal primarily with perception. In the first the effect of consumers with bounded perception have on a vertically differentiated duopoly with sequential quality choice is examined. Consumers are unable to tell the difference between goods of sufficiently similar quality, treating them as heterogeneous, analogous to Weber's law in psychophysics. It is found that the effects of bounded perception depend heavily on the cost structure of quality. The following chapter is in the same spirit, but with simultaneous choice of quality. Two experiments on manipulating perception are presenting in the next chapter, which is joint work with Andreas Gotfredsen, Carsten S. Nielsen and Alexander Sebald. By visually representing experimental assets as “heat maps” of different coloured squares, it is possible to manipulate how similar they are. In two experiments we study the effect of similarity on willingness-to-pay and an experimental market. In the final chapter, attention and perception are combined. A theory of dynamic inattention is proposed, in which individuals do not perfectly attend to all changes in their environment, thus leading to their perception of it being erroneous. Three applications are given: to portfolio design, to product shrinkage, and to medical screening programs."
"Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-04-27";"13:00";"2016-04-27";"16:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen: ""Dynamics of homophily in friendships"" This PhD thesis contains three related, but self-contained chapters. An overarching theme is social dynamics and in particular what is known as homophily or sorting, i.e. the tendency for people to make friends with those who are similar to themselves. The methodology includes an empirical evaluation of a new large field study and theoretical modeling. The first chapter is an investigation of a game theoretical model of partnership formation. The model is built on a setting with a trade-off between the quality of matches and the quantity in number of indirect connections in the social network. It is demonstrated in the chapter that homophily constitutes a game theoretical equilibrium, however, this outcome is inefficient under network effects. This contrasts with conventional economic models of homophily and assortative behavior. The chapter also conveys a new relation between individual characteristics and network position. The second chapter proposes a new theory of how homophily affects inequality. The chapter shares similarities with the first chapter, but considers the dynamic consequences of friendships by introducing a novel feature whereby a current partner's productivity affects one's own future productivity. The chapter explores under which circumstances assortative behavior in partnerships emerges and demonstrates conditions for when current sorting increases the future level of inequality. Moreover, the chapter determines when sorting implies increasing inequality within generations over time. The third and last chapter examines how friendships form and develop in a field study at Technical University of Denmark (DTU). This project is co-authored with Professor David Dreyer Lassen. The data from the field study is a unique dataset on social interactions spanning multiple dimensions e.g. phone communication and face-to-face meetings. We find evidence of homophily across many dimensions. We furthermore show that homophily is not only a static phenomenon but also operates across time and even among those people who one has common friends with, i.e. friends of friends"
"Zeuthen Lectures 2016";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-05-18";"14:00";"2016-05-20";"12:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, (35.01.06 og 26.2.21)";"";"Zeuthen Lectures 2016: Oded Galor: "" The Biogeographical Origins of the Wealth of Nations"" Forelæsning 1: 18. maj, 14:00–16:00, i lokale 35.01.06, bygning 35 Forelæsning 2: 19. maj, 10:00-12:00, i Det Store Seminarrum, 2. sal, bygning 26 Forelæsning 3: 20. maj, 10:00-12:00, i Det Store Seminarrum, 2. sal, bygning 26 Zeuthen Lectures vil blive efterfulgt af Zeuthen Workshop den 20. maj kl. 14 https://www.econ.ku.dk/ZeuthenLectures/ "
"Zeuthen Workshop 2016";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-05-20";"14:00";"2016-05-21";"14:30";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"";"Zeuthen Workshop foregår i Det Store Seminarrum, 2 sal, bygning 26 (26.2.21) Læs mere om Zeuthen Workshop "
"Allan Anders Balsgaard";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-05-23";"15:30";"2016-05-23";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Allan Anders Balsgaard:""Arms Races and War a game theoretic analysis"" This thesis uses game theoretic analysis to study international relations and the behavior of states. The first part of the thesis consists of a dynamic arms race model where states decide whether to acquire a nuclear weapon or not. We derive an equilibrium in which the fear of being left behind in the arms race is counterbalanced by the fear of setting off an arms race. Surprisingly, we find that increasing the proportion of pacifistic states makes an arms race more likely. The model provides an explanation for the remarkable absence of nuclear proliferation in the post-war period. The second part of the thesis explores the contradictions between a weaker state and its stronger ally. The states wish to counter a common threat to their security, however mutual mistrust makes it difficult for the weaker ally to rely on the stronger state for protection and the weaker ally may therefore decide to attack on its own. This compels the stronger ally to preempt in order to forestall the adverse effects of an uncoordinated attack. The model provides a theoretical mechanism for the power curse. The third part of the thesis asks whether better information makes war less likely. Using a three type ultimatum game, we show that this is not necessarily so. Despite that complete information implies peace, better information does not always make war less likely."
"European Research Workshop in International Trade (ERWIT)";"Centre for Economic Policy Research, University of Copenhagen and the Copenhagen Business School.";"2016-06-01";"08:30";"2016-06-03";"13:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 35.01.06), 1353 Kbh K";"""European Research Workshop in International Trade (ERWIT)"". Conference arranged by: Centre for Economic Policy Research, University of Copenhagen and the Copenhagen Business School.";"CEPR's 2016 European Research Workshop in International Trade (ERWIT) will be held in Copenhagen, 1-3 June 2016, in cooperation with the University of Copenhagen and the Copenhagen Business School. ERWIT is an annual workshop that brings together international economists from across Europe and key researchers from outside the region. The workshop disseminates the findings of recent research on international trade, and presentations often involve exploratory rather than finished papers. It provides a unique opportunity to discuss trade-related research in a relaxed atmosphere. Another important aim of ERWIT is to provide young researchers with the opportunity to meet and discuss their work with senior economists. The workshop will run for 3 days (from the morning of Wednesday 1 until the early afternoon of Friday 3 June, with arrival on Tuesday 31 May)."
"Ulrik Richardt Beck";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-06-28";"09:30";"2016-06-28";"12:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Ulrik Richardt Beck: ""Essays in Development Economics: Inequality Measurement and Household Factor Allocations"" The dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters. The first chapter investigates how two effects can drive wedges between real and nominal inequality estimates. The effects are caused by 1) differences in the composition of consumption coupled with differential inflation in different products and 2) quantity discounting. I estimate these effects using 15 surveys from six countries covering the period 1999-2011. The estimated effects are both country- and year-specific. The second chapter introduces a test of whether social ties help or hinder efficiency-enhancing factor transfers. We test this model on network data from The Gambia. Once we control for the presence of large landowners who transact outside social network boundaries, we find more efficiency-enhancing land transfers between kin-related households and between neighbors. The third chapter studies whether land transactions in rural villages in The Gambia are consistent with the presence of norm-based land access rules. Our answer is affirmative, as we find that land transactions are pro-poor on average. This finding is stronger in less densely populated and less ethnically diverse villages where social norms are thought to be more important. The fourth chapter investigates responses among smallholder coffee farmers in Vietnam to fluctuations in the coffee price. We find that adults and adolescents household increase their off-farm wage labor supply when prices are low. We also find that children and adolescents increase their supply of on-farm labor. These findings are potentially worrying for human capital formation of children and adolescents."
"Leonardo Esteban Salazar Vergara";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-07-12";"15:00";"2016-07-12";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"Ph.d-forsvar";" Ph.d.-forsvar:Leonardo Esteban Salazar Vergara: ""Essays on Labor and Exchange Markets in Chile"" This thesis consists of four self-contained articles presented in four separate chapters dealing with persistence in Chilean macroeconomic data. Generally, the results provide empirical support for the predictions of the structural slumps theory in a world of imperfect knowledge. The first chapter studies real exchange rate persistence. The results show that long and persistent swings in the real exchange rate are compensated by similar movements in the interest rate spread, which restores the equilibrium in the product market when the real exchange rate moves away from its long-run benchmark value. Fluctuations in the copper price are also associated with real exchange rate swings. The second chapter analyzes the Phillips curve and the effect of monetary policy on unemployment. The results show that the natural rate of unemployment is positively associated with the interest rate, suggesting that monetary policy might not be completely neutral over the business cycle. Additionally, trend-adjusted productivity is positively co-moving with the unemployment rate and negatively co-moving with the real exchange rate. This suggests that in periods of real appreciation, firms improve productivity by laying off the least-productive workers. The third chapter studies the effect of the minimum wage on the employment of household workers. The results show that there is a negative and inelastic long-run relationship between hours worked and the minimum wage, but no relationship between the minimum wage and the number of workers employed. This suggests that employers in the household service sector have reduced the number of hours worked per employee instead of the overall number of employees when there has been a minimum wage increase. The fourth chapter analyzes the effect of the monetary policy on the labor market when workers' heterogeneity is explicitly considered (age, income quintile, and economic sector). The results indicate that monetary policy does not evenly affect all workers. The primary sector is the least sensitive and the secondary sector the most sensitive to contractionary monetary shocks. "
"Lorenzo Caliendo, Yale University";"Economic Policy Research Unit";"2016-09-23";"13:00";"2016-09-23";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"""Trade and Labor Market Dynamics"". Seminar arranged by Economic Policy Research Unit.";"""Trade and Labor Market Dynamics"" Abstract We develop a dynamic trade model where production and consumption take place in spatially distinct labor markets with varying exposure to domestic and international trade. The model recognizes the role of labor mobility frictions, goods mobility frictions, geographic factors, and input-output linkages in determining equilibrium allocations. We show how to solve the equilibrium of the model without estimating productivities, migration frictions, or trade costs, which are usually difficult to identify. We calibrate the model to 38 countries, 50 U.S. states, and 22 sectors and use the rise in China’s import competition to quantify the effects across more than a thousand U.S. labor markets. We find that China’s trade shock resulted in a loss of 0.8 million U.S.manufacturing jobs, about 50 percent of the change in the manufacturing employment share unexplained by a secular trend. We find aggregate welfare gains but, due to trade and migration frictions, the welfare and employment effects vary across U.S. labor markets. Estimated transition costs to the new long-run equilibrium are also heterogeneous and reflect the importance of accounting for labor dynamics Download paper"
"Louise Charlotte Willerslev-Olsen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-10-11";"10:00";"2016-10-11";"13:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Large Seminar Room, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar:Louise Charlotte Willerslev-Olsen: ""Essays in Economics, Forecasting, rationality and financial trouble"" The first chapter develops a method to incorporate multi-horizon forecasts when evaluating forecast rationality. The method is applied to the budget surplus forecast of the US government in the period 1975-2012. We find that the forecasts are consistent with rationality when the US government is adverse to underestimating the surplus and when this aversion increases in the forecast horizon. The second chapter looks at the sources of financial trouble in an intergenerational setting. We establish a strong intergenerational correlation in loan default and provide three possible explanations for this correlation. (i) common shocks to children and parents, (ii) parents and children insure each other against shocks, (iii) children inherit financial behavior from their parents. We find that the third channel is the most important. The third chapter studies whether individual debtors have a higher propensity to default on loans with low default costs. Comparing mortgages (high default costs) with bank loans (low default costs) I find that debtors are five to eight times more likely to default on the low cost loans. This holds in the cross-section, in the panel dimension and following adverse shocks such as job loss and divorce. Finally, bank loan default increases steeply in the years leading up to mortgage default."
"Ole Jann";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-10-27";"15:00";"2016-10-27";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, (26.2.21)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Ole Jann: ""Multiple Equilibria in Markets and Games"" This thesis deals with economic problems where decisions are interdependent, and where there can be several possible equilibria. This is the case, for example, in financial markets where the choices of people who fear a market crash influence the probability of a market crash. In such situations, people's beliefs can be self-fulfilling. The thesis consists of five self-contained essays. The first considers how information aggregation in financial markets can break down if informed people are uncertain about the information that other people have. In the second essay, written with Christoph Schottmueller, we analyze the problem of defending against coordinated attacks, such as speculative attacks against currencies or revolutions. It turns out that a 230-year old idea by Jeremy Bentham has surprising relevance for this problem. The third essay considers risk-taking by firms. I show that there is an implicit risk-capacity constraint, as firms only want to take risks if not too many other firms take risks. That leads to strategic behavior which can exacerbate financial crises. In the fourth essay, written with Christoph Schottmueller, we generalize the Bertrand paradox, one of the most well-known results in microeconomics. Finally, in the fifth essay, also written with Christoph Schottmueller, we develop an informational theory of privacy and explain why privacy can be welfare-enhancing even though it creates information asymmetries."
"Hailemariam Ayalew Tiruneh";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2016-12-13";"13:00";"2016-12-13";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, (26.2.21)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";" Ph.d.-forsvar: Hailemariam Ayalew Tiruneh:""Impact Evaluation of Policy Reforms: Quasi-experimental Evidence from Africa"" This dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters. The first chapter uses the Ethiopian land title certification program as a quasi-experiment and examines the effect of land title certification on household welfare among rural poor households in Ethiopia. By exploiting variation in the differential timing of land title certification, we find that land tenure security significantly improves the welfare of the poor and the effect varies depending on the length of household’s treatment duration. Hired labor is the main channel through which land title certification affects household welfare. The second chapter examines the impact of Ethiopian Commodity Exchange (ECX) on spatial price dispersion. We compare the price dispersion of cereals that are traded at ECX, maize and wheat, with a cereal only traded at the local market, teff. We find that ECX significantly reduces spatial price dispersion and the effect varies depending on the length of treatment duration and crop type. Price dissemination through plasma screens is the main channel through which ECX affects spatial price dispersion in Ethiopia. The third chapter further investigates the impact of ECX on farm household welfare. We exploit variation in the geographical locations of the price display plasma screens that disseminate real time price information at the exchange. Distance from the plasma screens to each enumeration area is used to measure the intensity of access to the price information. We find that reducing distance improves farm household welfare. Increasing land allocated to commodities traded at the exchange is an important channel through which ECX affect household welfare. Finally, chapter four investigates the effect of weather shocks on spatial price dispersion in Mozambique. While a drought reduces price differences between markets, price dispersion increases during flood periods. This effect is higher among markets that are closer to each other but connected by poorer transport infrastructure."
"DATA FUTURES";"SODAS";"2017-03-31";"11:00";"2017-03-31";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 35, room 35.3.20";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 - Ivana Konvalinka";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 Data has become part of the basic fabric of social life in many different ways. What sorts of questions do we need to start asking in order to understand, prepare for, and shape our futures with and through digital data? The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) at the University of Copenhagen is convening its inaugural Lecture Series on the theme of Data Futures. Speakers from different disciplines are asked to reflect on the most pressing questions for contemporary society as we face futures living with and through data. The lectures will be aimed at an interdisciplinary audience - all welcome. The first lecture will be given by Ivana Konvalinka on 31st March 2017, from 11.00 - 12.30 in 35.3.20, CSS Campus, KU. Dr Konvalinka (DTU Compute) works in the field of social neuroscience. The title of her talk is: ""Quantifying social interaction: mechanisms across behavioural, neural, and physiological domains"" Read more about Ivana Konvalinka here. All enquiries, please contact: antonia.walford@ucl.ac.uk "
"DATA FUTURES";"SODAS";"2017-04-21";"11:00";"2017-04-21";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, room 26.2.21";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 - Anders Kristian Munk";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 Data has become part of the basic fabric of social life in many different ways. What sorts of questions do we need to start asking in order to understand, prepare for, and shape our futures with and through digital data? The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) at the University of Copenhagen is convening its inaugural Lecture Series on the theme of Data Futures. Speakers from different disciplines are asked to reflect on the most pressing questions for contemporary society as we face futures living with and through data. The lectures will be aimed at an interdisciplinary audience - all welcome. Lectures will take place from 11.00am - 12.30. 21 April 2017 - Anders Kristian Munk Participatory Data Design Anders Kristian Munk. Aalborg University, Department of Learning and Philosophy At the face of it, user-driven and data-driven approaches can seem anathema to one another. However, recent experiments with user involvement in data intensive projects suggest otherwise. From datafication to analysis and visualisation, social data work involves choices that can, in principle, be opened up to a broader cast of participants. The question is under what circumstances such participation makes sense. What do we expect to achieve from it and how do we go about achieving it? Experiences with data sprints and other participatory formats has shown that participation can be a way to ensure relevant user input and thus more robust knowledge claims, a way to forge ownership and legitimacy with a particular group of actors, a way to give stakeholders first hand experience with the constraints and limitations of a data project, or a combination of the above. Depending on the objective, and the affordances of the tools and datasets available, different problems and challenges present themselves. I discuss these under the broad heading of Participatory Data Design. Read more about Anders Kristian Munk here."
"Thor Pajhede Nielsen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2017-04-25";"10:00";"2017-04-25";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Thor Pajhede Nielsen: ""Tales From the Unit Interval: Backtesting, Forecasting and Modeling"" This thesis comprises three self-contained chapters, related to either credit or market risk. Chapter one discusses new likelihood ratio tests for evaluating Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts. We provide closed form expressions for the tests as well as asymptotic theory. Not only do the generalized tests have power against k'th order dependence by definition, but also included simulations indicate improved power performance over existing tests. The chapter is forthcoming in the Journal of Forecasting. Chapter two discusses how to best forecast VaR of a portfolio. In particular one faces a number of choices in how to construct a model; Univariate or multivariate models, Interday or intraday based data and distributional alternatives. We consider A portfolio of 44 major US stocks from the S&P 500 index and compare using both recently developed backtests and the model confidence set approach. We also consider the square-root-of-time scaling rule for a 10 day period as suggested in the Basel accords. Chapter three discuss an observation driven, conditionally beta distributed model. The model includes both explanatory variables and autoregressive dependence in the mean and precision parameters using the mean-precision parameterization of the beta distribution suggested by Ferrari et al. (2004). Our model is a generalization of the β ARMA model proposed in Rocha et al. (2009). We also highlight some errors in their derivations of the score and information which has implications for the asymptotic theory. Included simulations suggest that standard asymptotics for estimators and test statistics apply. In an empirical application to Moody's monthly US 12-month issuer default rates in the period 1972-2015 , we revisit the results of Agosto et al. (2016) in examining the conditional independence hypothesis of Lando et al. (2010)."
"DATA FUTURES";"SODAS";"2017-05-19";"11:00am";"2017-05-19";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 35, room 35.3.20";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 - Anders Søgaard";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 Data has become part of the basic fabric of social life in many different ways. What sorts of questions do we need to start asking in order to understand, prepare for, and shape our futures with and through digital data? The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) at the University of Copenhagen is convening its inaugural Lecture Series on the theme of Data Futures. Speakers from different disciplines are asked to reflect on the most pressing questions for contemporary society as we face futures living with and through data. The lectures will be aimed at an interdisciplinary audience - all welcome. The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) is pleased to announce its third lecture in the DATA FUTURES Lecture Series, on Friday 19th May, 11.00am in Room 35.3.20, CSS Campus, UCPH. The lecture will be given by professor Anders Søgaard, who is Professor in Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning, at the Department of Computer Science, UCPH. Please find the title and abstract of Prof Søgaard's lecture below: The Return of the Fifty Foot Approximately Correct AI In our research group at the Dpt. of Computer Science, we teach computers to understand, produce, and reason with language. These are all cornerstones of artificial intelligence (AI), a term that has regained popularity in recent years. It seems the optimism and the ambitions of early day AI have been restored, and at the core of the updated grand vision is the concept of multi-task and transfer learning. This has also been the central research theme in our research group the last years. I give examples of our research and share my version of the grand vision of AI. Read more about Anders Søgaard here. Any questions, please contact Antonia Walford: antonia.walford@ucl.ac.uk"
"Casper Nordal Jørgensen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2017-05-29";"14:00";"2017-05-29";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen(room 26.2.21)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Casper Nordal Jørgensen: ""Understanding the Consumption and Savings Decisions of Households"" The dissertation analyse three different aspects of how households choose to spend and save their money. The first chapter discusses the so-called credit card debt puzzle, the observation that households repeated hold expensive credit card debt and low interest bearing assets. We show that this behaviour can be perfectly rational when households face the risk of losing access to future credit card borrowing. The key is that current borrowing acts as an insurance against future income loss. We show that households place a considerable premium on this option. The second chapter addresses an alternative approach to estimating marginal propensities to consume (MPC). We show that estimating consumption functions using regression splines and then calculating MPCs yields surprisingly accurate estimates. The proposed method is beneficial because of its simplicity and because it does not require e.g. natural experiments to infer households propensities to consume. Using the method we find the Danish aggregate MPC to be about 47%. The third and final chapter addresses and quantifies a new channel --quality channel-- for consumption smoothing. When facing higher unemployment rates middle and high income households reduce shopping expenditures by buying both fewer and cheaper products. Low income households, however do not reduce their expenditures. Our evidence suggests that the low income households are shopping constrained, because they are already buying the lowest priced products. This suggests that we might severely underestimate the welfare costs of business cycles using traditional economic models."
"DATA FUTURES";"SODAS";"2017-06-02";"11:00";"2017-06-02";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 26, room 26.2.21";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 - Urška Šadl";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 Data has become part of the basic fabric of social life in many different ways. What sorts of questions do we need to start asking in order to understand, prepare for, and shape our futures with and through digital data? The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) at the University of Copenhagen is convening its inaugural Lecture Series on the theme of Data Futures. Speakers from different disciplines are asked to reflect on the most pressing questions for contemporary society as we face futures living with and through data. The lectures will be aimed at an interdisciplinary audience - all welcome. The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) is pleased to announce the fourth lecture in the DATA FUTURES Lecture Series, on Friday 2nd June, 11.00am in Room 26.2.21, CSS Campus, UCPH. Please note that the room has changed! The lecture will be given by Professor Urška Šadl, who is professor of Law at the European University Institute. Her primary research interests include the empirical studies of European courts and their jurisprudence, the language of courts, the theory and practice of judicial precedents as well as topics in European constitutional law more generally. Leading cases in European Union law When a court decides a case, it resolves a dispute between two parties, and renders a judgment. Most judgments become quickly forgotten. A small fraction of them becomes famous. Translated into legal terminology, the question is what makes certain cases leading cases? Is it an instantaneous act by the Court which once and for all establishes a great legal principle? Or is it, rather, a protracted process in which a certain case only gradually gains this symbolic standing? If the cases contain inherent leading case material, what is this leading case material precisely? To answer this question the paper uses existing and novel measures of case centrality, which were developed to analyse citation networks, and applies them to a network of judgments of the Court of Justice of the European Union. It develops a so-called versatility coefficient to identify several factors that play a role in the formation of leading cases. Any questions on the lecture, please contact Antonia Walford: antonia.walford@ucl.ac.uk"
"EPRN conference 2017";"Economic Policy Research Network";"2017-06-22";"12:15";"2017-06-23";"16:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 35.01.06), 1353 Kbh K";"Economic Policy Research Network Conference 2017. Conference arranged by Economic Policy Research Network.";"Download: InvitationProgram"
"DATA FUTURES";"SODAS";"2017-06-23";"11:00am";"2017-06-23";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 35, room 35.3.20";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 - Søren Brunak";"SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 Data has become part of the basic fabric of social life in many different ways. What sorts of questions do we need to start asking in order to understand, prepare for, and shape our futures with and through digital data? The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) at the University of Copenhagen is convening its inaugural Lecture Series on the theme of Data Futures. Speakers from different disciplines are asked to reflect on the most pressing questions for contemporary society as we face futures living with and through data. The lectures will be aimed at an interdisciplinary audience - all welcome. 23 June 2017 - Søren Brunak The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) is pleased to announce its sixth lecture in the DATA FUTURES Lecture Series, on Friday 23rd June, 11.00am in Room 35.3.20, CSS Campus, UCPH. The lecture will be given by Professor Søren Brunak, who is Head of the Translational Disease Systems Biology Group at the Novo Nordisk Foundation Centre for Protein Research, Copenhagen University. Please find the title and abstract of Prof Brunak's lecture below Read more about Søren Brunak here. Multi-morbidity disease trajectories in a complete, unbiased population Patient record data remain a rather unexplored, but potentially rich data source for discovering correlations between diseases, drugs and genetic information in individual patients. All over the world human genomes are being sequenced at low cost, but in order to interpret genomes they must typically be matched up against disease phenotypes and treatment outcomes from many individuals, eventually arriving at the concept of precision medicine. Many drugs are today prescribed and dosed in a “one size fits all” manner (e.g. using patient weight); the data driven idea in personalized medicine is to identify a better founded relationship between patient features and choice of treatment. A fundamental question is the basic definition of phenotypic categories. As an alternative to the conventional single disease model the talk will describe attempts to create phenotypic categories and patient stratification based on longitudinal data covering long periods of time. We carry out temporal analysis of clinical data in a more life-course oriented fashion. We use data covering 6-7 million patients from Denmark collected over a 20 year period and use them to “condense” millions of individual trajectories into a smaller set of recurrent ones. This set of trajectories can be interpreted as re-defined phenotypes that potentially themselves could be treatment targets as opposed to a single diagnosis or a single disease. Healthcare is today not successful in handling patients with multi-morbidities and the talk will discuss this problem in the context of big biomedical data. Any questions, please contact Antonia Walford: antonia.walford@ucl.ac.uk"
"Amalie Sofie Jensen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2017-08-24";"15:00";"2017-08-24";"18:00";"Department of Economics, CSS, building 26, The Large Seminarroom (26.2.21)";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Amalie Sofie Jensen:""Essays on Saving Behavior, Homeownership, and Political Preferences"" Understanding individual behavior and decision making, is often the foundation for understanding general movements in society, and the impact of aggregate shocks and government policies. While contributing to different fields of economics, all chapters of this dissertation are concerned with how individuals behave economically and politically in response to economic conditions, incentives, and information.In many countries, a majority of the population are homeowners and housing wealth is a dominating share of household total assets. Homeownership is also encouraged politically, as most governments subsidize it through the tax code. Homeownership, and its influence on household balance sheets and consumption patterns, potentially plays an important role for the economic and political decision making of households. The first three chapters of the dissertation analyze questions that are in various ways related to homeownership and savings in housing. The last chapter of the dissertation analyzes individual formation of political attitudes and perceptions of economic risk in response to information about unemployment. The work presented in this dissertation contains examples of how micro behavior can help us understand general matters. All questions answered relate to greater economic and political issues such as savings for retirement, taxation and housing, inequality and redistribution, social insurance systems, and political consequences of economic trouble."
"Heidi Kaila";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2017-09-04";"14:00";"2017-09-04";"18:00";"Department of Economics, CSS, building 26, The Large Seminarroom (26.2.21)";"PhD defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Heidi Kaila:""Essays on Development Economics. Information Technology, Human Capital, and Conflict"" The PhD thesis consists of four self-contained chapters. The first two chapters analyze the determinants and consequences of the rapid expansion of information technology in rural Viet Nam. A number of online platforms on agriculture started operating in the country during 2008-12. The first chapter finds that the arrival of the first internet access point in rural communes increased the value of agricultural production. The second chapter studies which demographic and social groups are leading and which are lagging behind in mobile phone ownership between 2006 and 2014, when phone ownership increased from 18 to 89 per cent. Households with political connections are early adopters, and their higher adoption rates are not fully explained by observable characteristics. At the same time, ethnic minorities are lagging behind. However, if the ethnic minorities had similar observable characteristics than non-minority households, they would adopt more phones than non-minority households. The third chapter compares human capital and cognitive skills of cohorts of children followed to young adulthood in Senegal and Madagascar. In both countries, cognitive skills, measured using test scores in the second grade, and health, proxied by adult height, are strong predictors of school attainment. Cognitive skills in second grade are a stronger predictor of cognitive skills in young adulthood in Senegal than in Madagascar. In Madagascar, background characteristics are more important. The fourth chapter studies the evolution of violence levels in the ongoing insurgency in Jammu & Kashmir by using tests for structural breaks in the time series for violence over the period 1998-2014. We identify a transition from a high violence regime to a low violence regime that coincides with (i) the fencing of the border with Pakistan (ii) the implementation of a large-scale development program, and (iii) the phasing in of the Indian National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS)."
"Experimenting With Social Data";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2017-09-14";"13:30";"2017-09-15";"17:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (35.01.06 og 16.2.55), 1353 Kbh K";"A one-and-a-half day SODAS workshop at University of Copenhagen (UCPH), September 14-15 2017.";"- A one-and-a-half day SODAS workshop at University of Copenhagen (UCPH), September 14-15 2017 Time:14 September, 13:30 - 17.0015 September, 09:00 - 17:30 Place:14 September: CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (35.01.06), 1353 Kbh K15 September: CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (16.2.55), 1353 Kbh K Background: revisiting the experiment The recent rise of massive digital trace datasets in the social sciences ('social big data') has served in part to re-actualize experimentation, as well as their associated and divergent legacies in the history and philosophy of science and beyond. While various kinds of experimental social data practices are flourishing, cross-cutting conversations on attendant issues of methodology, epistemology, and research ethics are still few and far between. At present, for instance, little clarity – let alone agreement – prevails in terms of whether research on and with large-scale digital social data is best thought of in analogy to laboratory or field sciences and their associated differences in styles of experimentation. Meanwhile, conversations in science & technology studies (STS) and related fields has served to open up the experimental form to novel and more heterogeneous interpretations, spanning beyond questions of natural-science epistemology (the experimental event) to issues of ethics (e.g. experiments in living), politics (e.g. the experimental society) and aesthetics (e.g. experiments in genre-crossing). As organizers of this workshop, we – the Critical Algorithms Lab (CALL) of anthropologists, sociologists and STS researchers, part of the Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) – come at these questions equally as matters of practical day-to-day research and as profound epistemological, ethical, and aesthetic challenges. As such, the workshop itself takes on a (meta-)experimental character, with the aim of testing the limits, the possibilities, and the important distinctions and variations contained in invocations of ‘experimentation’ as a privileged route along which to pursue the promise of adequate knowledge held out by large-scale digital social data. Outline programme On September 14 Dawn Nafus and Evelyn Ruppert are invited to give public keynote lectures on experimentation in relation til digital social science data. This event is open for everybody and coffee will be served for free. September 15 is the workshop itself, consisting in shorter presentations followed by extended discussions with an invited audience of app. 30-40 researchers, doctoral students and practitioners working on issues of social data. If you are interested in further information about the workshop on September 15, please contact associate professor, Anders Blok on abl@soc.ku.dk. Please note that attendance for the workshop on September 15 is limited and by registration only. Admittance is on a first-come-first-serve basis. September 14 (Location: UCPH, CSS, room 35.01.06): 13.30 – 15.00: Evelyn Ruppert, Sociology, Goldsmiths University of London. 15.30 – 17.00: Dawn Nafus, Senior Research Scientist, Intel. ”An Experiment in Citizen Data” Evelyn Ruppert, Goldsmiths University of London Many, if not most, big data are connected to the lives of citizens: their movements, opinions, and relations. Arguably data and citizens are inseparable: from smartphones, meters, fridges and cars to internet platforms, the data of digital technologies is the data of citizens. I explore the politics of this attachment between digital technologies, data and citizens through an account of an experiment in the design of a ‘citizen data app’ that speculates on alternatives for generating statistics for research and governing. Experimenting is understood as a method of opening technological expertise to other actors, exploring alternative problem formulations and futures, transcending ingrained ways of thinking, disrupting power relations and critically examining practices through which data comes into being. In these ways, the experiment in a citizen data app conceives of data and statistics as social technologies and matters of democratic debate and deliberation where citizens are active in making knowledge about societies of which they are a part. ”It’s Experiments All The Way Down: Full Stack Anthropology in the Midst of Design/Build/Test Cycles” Dawn Nafus, Senior Research Scientist, Intel This talk will reflect on two modalities of experimentation as they intersect in a piece of software. The first, what I will call ‘design/build/test’, is a well known cycle of iteration in hardware and software production. The second takes its cue from the Quantified Self community, where people tinker with new ways to collect and reflect upon personal data. Indeed, self-tracking as practiced in this community is less a single practice than it is an ethos that embraces many practices. These can range from pen and paper journaling to formal protocols of ‘control’ and ‘treatment’, and from philosophical reflection on the collapse of subject and object to advanced statistical methods. I will use a social life of methods theorization to sketch the evolution of my own approach to wrestling with sensor data in ethnographic research. I discuss my approach in relation to these two modalities of experimentation as well as ‘ordinary’ ethnographic practice (whatever that is). I argue that taking the social life of methods seriously opens up a position from which to ask what a ‘full stack’ anthropological practice might look like, and where and why it might be necessary."
"DATA FUTURES";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2017-10-06";"10:30";"2017-10-06";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 35, room 35.3.20";"Lecture by Daniel Davis, PhD in computational design from Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology.";"DATA FUTURES SODAS Inaugural Lecture Series 2017 Data has become part of the basic fabric of social life in many different ways. What sorts of questions do we need to start asking in order to understand, prepare for, and shape our futures with and through digital data? The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) at the University of Copenhagen is convening its inaugural Lecture Series on the theme of Data Futures. Speakers from different disciplines are asked to reflect on the most pressing questions for contemporary society as we face futures living with and through data. The lectures will be aimed at an interdisciplinary audience - all welcome. The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) is pleased to announce its seventh lecture in the DATA FUTURES Lecture Series, on Friday 6 October 2017, 10.30am in Room 35.3.20, CSS Campus, UCPH. The lecture will be given by Daniel Davis, PhD in computational design from Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology and lead researcher at WeWork, specializing in understanding the future of the workplace. Please find the title and abstract of Daniel Davis' lecture below. Architecture in the Age of Data Our cities are giant Petri dishes where some buildings grow and thrive while others wane and crumble. Architects have theories about why certain buildings succeed, but we're not really sure, we don't really have the evidence. Today, as we gather ever increasing amounts of data about our buildings, machine learning is set to end this grand experiment, to allow us to identify why some buildings succeed and others fail. Since it’s founding in 2010, WeWork has designed and constructed over 100 coworking spaces in 14 countries, making it one of the fastest growing companies in the world. In this presentation, Daniel Davis will showcase how WeWork is using machine learning to understand why some designs succeed when others fail. In particular, he’ll highlight how statistics and machine learning are impacting how architects work in a world full of uncertainty and data."
"Workshop on tax evasion, tax avoidance and inequality";"University of Copenhagen, Department of economics";"2017-10-27";"09:25";"2017-10-28";"12:30";"Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen, Building 26, Large Seminar Room (CSS.26.2.21)";"Workshop arranged by Niels Johannesen. ";"Workshop arranged by Niels Johannesen. Read the full programme here."
"Workshop on ""Tax evasion, tax avoidance and inequality""";"Department of Economics";"2017-10-27";"9:00";"2017-10-28";"TBA";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Workshop arranged by Department of Economics.";"Download program Contact person: Niels Johannsen"
"The New International Economic Order seen from Japan";"Asian Dynamics Initiative (ADI), The Danish Foreign Policy Society & Embassy of Japan";"2017-10-30";"08:30";"";"10:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 35, Auditorium 35.01.06 (enter from Gammeltoftsgade)";"Join us for a public talk by Professor Fukunari Kimura, Keio University, Chief Economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).";"Public talk by Professor Fukunari Kimura Moderated by Professor Jakob Roland Munch. Although the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) was regarded as one of the essential pillars of economic reform under the Abe Administration, the so-called Abenomics, the walkout by the US from TPP forces Japan to readjust its international commercial policies. The Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement formed in July 2017 may become a key element in a new international economic order. Professor Kimura will share his views on the agreement and also touch upon the impact of Brexit on further negotiations and future Japan-EU relations. Fukunari Kimura is Professor at the Faculty of Economics, Keio University. He is Chief Economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) and President of The Japan Society of International Economics. He specializes in international trade and development economics, particularly working on various topics related to production networks and economic integration. Jakob Roland Munch is Professor at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen. Coffee will be served from 8:00 Venue: Auditorium 35.01.06 at CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5 (entrance from Gammeltoftsgade) The event is organised by the The Danish Foreign Policy Society, and Asian Dynamics Initiative in cooperation with the Embassy of Japan. "
"UCPH Conference: ""Field Days 2017""";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2017-11-10";"09:00";"2017-11-11";"17:00";"Department of Economics, CSS, room 26.2.21, 35.3.13";"UCPH Conference: ""Field days 2017"", arranged by Steffen Altmann and Alexander Sebald.";"See preliminary program for the conference here Contact person: Steffen Altmann"
"Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2017-12-01";"15:00";"2017-12-01";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS; 26.2.21";"PhD defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen: ""R&D-Based Economic Growth, Directed Technical Change, and Environmental Policy"" The thesis consists of three self-contained chapters, and each of them builds on R&D-based endogenous growth models. Chapter 1 examines U.S. productivity growth through the lens of R&D-based models. The predictions of different model varieties can vary substantially, and the main objective of Chapter 1 is therefore to test different model varieties. The analysis is based on a general R&D-based model framework which implies a cointegrating relationship. This relationship is estimated on U.S. data. The obtained results provide evidence in favor of the semi-endogenous variety and against the widely used fully endogenous variety. Forecasts based on the empirical estimates indicate that U.S. productivity growth will continue at a historically slow pace. Chapter 2 investigates how environmental policy affects long-run economic growth, when environmental policy also affects the direction of technical change. The analysis is based on an R&D-based model featuring endogenous technological development of both production and pollution abatement technologies. The analysis shows that a tighter environmental policy unambiguously reduces long-run economic growth. However, simulations based on U.S. data indicate that even large environmental policy reforms have small long-run economic growth effects. Chapter 3 investigates how to achieve a given climate goal - for instance, the two-degree temperature limit from the Paris Agreement 2015 - in an R&D-based model featuring both directed technical change and population growth. The latter aspect is neglected in previous studies. This seems problematic, as the UN Population Division expects the global population to grow by nearly 50 percent from 2017 to 2100. Both analytical and numerical results indicate that population growth, through its effect on aggregate polluting production, is a major burden on the environment. The analysis shows that research subsidies are typically insufficient to ensure a given climate goal. Instead, the analysis highlights the effectiveness of pollution taxes and population control policies."
"Gregers Nytoft Rasmussen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2017-12-15";"13:00";"2017-12-15";"17:00";"CSS, building 35, room 35.3.13";"PhD defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Gregers Nytoft Rasmussen: ""Patience, Risk Aversion, and Economic Behavior: Combining Experimental Data with Administrative Register Data"" In models of economic behavior, assumptions about preferences are essential. Empirical knowledge about preferences is therefore important in explaining the behavior of individuals. This PhD thesis studies relationships between preferences and economic decision-making at the individual level. The work presented here is based on large-scale Internet experiments with more than 5,000 Danish respondents. The experiments involved incentivized intertemporal choices and investment choices designed to elicit measures of individual-level patience and risk aversion. The experimental preference measures are linked at the individual level to Danish third-party reported administrative register data. The work in this thesis distinguishes itself by facilitating a comparison between experimentally elicited preferences and long-term real-life economic behavior observed in the registers, while earlier studies have primarily evaluated the relationships between preferences and economic decision-making in short-term laboratory settings. The thesis consists of three self-contained chapters, which all contribute to the understanding of how heterogeneity in preferences relates to actual economic decision-making at the individual level. In chapter 1, I document that time and risk preferences are important for behavior on the loan market in terms of several outcomes: loan to income ratios, the timing of first debt incurrence, interest rates paid on debt, the choice of mortgage loan, and delinquencies on loans. Chapter 2 investigates the relationship between time discounting and wealth inequality. We find a strong positive correlation between measured patience levels and the respondents’ positions in the wealth distribution. In chapter 3, I study the association between preference heterogeneity and insurance demand and find positive relationships between insurance purchases and levels of risk aversion as well as patience."
"Thorsten Rogall, University of British Columbia";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-02-21";"12:30";"2018-02-21";"13:45";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, room 26.1.21B";"""The Legacy of Political Mass Killings: Evidence from the Rwandan Genocide"". Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Legacy of Political Mass Killings: Evidence from the Rwandan Genocide"" Abstract: We study how political mass killings affect later economic performance, using data from the Rwandan Genocide. To establish causality, we exploit two sources of exogenous village level variation in violence: a) variation in village reception of a state-sponsored radio station (RTLM) that incited killings of the ethnic Tutsi minority population (Yanagizawa-Drott, 2014) and b) variation in armed groups’ transport costs that affected the number of army and militiamen arriving in each village (Rogall, 2017). RTLM-induced violence was local, committed with low-technology weapons; external armed groups lead to large-scale violence. We find that a) households in villages with local violence have higher living standards six years after the genocide. They enjoy higher levels of consumption, own more assets, and output per capita from agricultural production is higher. These results are consistent with the Malthusian hypothesis that mass killings can raise living standards by reducing the population size and redistributing productive assets from the deceased to the survivors. b) In households that experienced large-scale violence the Malthusian channel does not outweigh the negative effects of looting and physical capital destruction. While households do own more land per capita, they also own significantly fewer other assets, in particular livestock and we find evidence that agricultural output and income are lower. However, for both cases further analysis suggests that these effects are likely temporary and may disappear in the future."
"Natnael Simachew Nigatu";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-02-21";"14:00";"2018-02-21";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, room 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Natnael Simachew Nigatu: ""Essays on Globalization and Labor Markets. Gender Gap, Re-training, and Immigrant Integration"" Phd defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Natnael Simachew Nigatu: ""Essays on Globalization and Labor Markets. Gender Gap, Re-training, and Immigrant Integration"" The thesis consists of three self-contained chapters on topics related with globalization and labor markets based on Danish matched worker-firm data. Chapter 1 investigates the effect of offshoring on the gender wage gap and the gender composition within manufacturing firms. By exploiting exogenous variation in firm level offshoring, I find that offshoring increases the share of female workers within firms. In addition, offshoring increases the gender wage gap. I provide evidences that suggest the share of female workers within offshoring firms increases due to the decline in manual content of tasks within such firms. On the other hand, the gender wage gap increases due to firms’ discriminatory practices following the productivity gain from offshoring. Chapter 2 examines if providing re-training programs is more beneficial to workers displaced from offshoring firms than for others. Recent empirical studies find that workers displaced from offshoring firms experience large earning losses and longer unemployment spells due to the mismatch between their skills and the current demand of the economy. I find that the earnings gap between displaced workers from offshoring and non-offshoring firms is lower among trained workers compared to those who are not trained, which implies the training programs are more beneficial to mitigate earning losses of workers displaced from offshoring firms. Chapter 3 studies the effect of time varying economic shocks on immigrants’ integration behavior which is measured by their participation in Danish language training programs. We find that when the currency of an immigrant’s home country depreciates, she reduces her language training participation and instead increases her working hours as well as probability of participating in additional part-time jobs. Similarly, an immigrant who works in a firm which experience an exogenous export shock reduces her training participation. The result suggest immigrants could have high discount rate or they are uncertain about their future stay. "
"Lars Gårn Hansen, Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen";"Department of Economics";"2018-03-02";"14:30";"2018-03-02";"15:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21/26.2.20), 1353 Kbh K ";"""Key points from the new report from the Danish Environmental Economic Council on “The Economy and the Environment 2018"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Key points from the new report from the Danish Environmental Economic Council on “The Economy and the Environment 2018"" Abstract This year’s annual report from the Danish Environmental Economic Council (to be published on February 27) focuses on policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from Danish agriculture and from the transport sector and discusses Danish climate policy towards 2030. The council’s spokesman on environmental policy, Lars Gaarn Hansen, will present the main analytical findings and policy recommendations in the report. Peter Birch Sørensen, Head of the Danish Council on Climate Change, will act as discussant.Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"Zeuthen Lectures 2018";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-03-05";"15:00";"2018-03-06";"14:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, room 35.01.06/35.3.12";"Zeuthen Lectures 2018: Markus K. Brunnermeier: ""The International Financial and Monetary Architecture""";"Zeuthen Lectures 2018: Markus K. Brunnermeier: ""The International Financial and Monetary Architecture"" Further information about Zeuthen Lectures "
"Zeuthen Workshop 2018";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-03-07";"09:00";"2018-03-07";"18:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS 25.01.53";"";"Further information about Zeuthen Workshop"
"Eirik Amundsen, Department of Economics, University of Bergen";"Department of Economics";"2018-03-16";"13:00";"2018-03-16";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K ";"""Addressing the climate problem: Choice between allowances, feed-in tariffs and taxes"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Addressing the climate problem: Choice between allowances, feed-in tariffs and taxes"" (Joint: Eirik Amundsen, Peder Andersen and Jørgen Birk Mortensen)Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"Eirik S. Amundsen, University of Bergen and University of Copenhagen";"Department of Economics";"2018-04-06";"13:00";"2018-04-06";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Optimal ‘real-world’ regulation of local externalities"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Optimal ‘real-world’ regulation of local externalities"" (Joint: Lars Gårn Hansen and Hans Jørgen Whitta-Jacobsen) Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"SOCIAL DATA SCIENCES";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-04-11";"11:00";"2018-04-11";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Building 35, room 35.3.20";"SODAS Spring Lecture Series 2018.Lecture by Assistant Professor Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye, Department of Computing and Data Science Institute, Imperial College London: 'Using Data while Protecting Privacy in the Digital Era'.";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce its Spring Lecture Series 2018. The theme of the series is Social Data Sciences. Speaking across domains as diverse as computational privacy, legal systems, international finance and big data infrastructures, our speakers will highlight the challenges that we face with these new social data configurations, and the methodological innovations that we need to foster in order to understand and intervene in them. Lectures will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 11.00am - 12.30pm. Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye Our first speaker on April 11th is Dr. Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye, who is an Assistant Professor at Imperial College London, where he heads the Computational Privacy Group, and a research affiliate at MIT. Please see below for the title and abstract of his lecture. Read more about Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye in the BIO below or on his website here. Using Data while Protecting Privacy in the Digital Era We live in a time when information about most of our movements and actions is collected and stored in real time. The availability of large-scale mobile phone, credit card, browsing history, etc data dramatically increase our capacity to understand and potentially affect the behaviour of individuals and collectives. The use of this data, however, raise legitimate privacy concerns. In this talk, I will discuss how traditional data protection mechanisms fail to protect people's privacy in the age of big data. More specifically, I will show how the mere absence of obvious identifiers such as name or phone number or the addition of noise are not enough to prevent re-identification and how sensitive information can often be inferred from seemingly innocuous data. I will then conclude by discussing some of socially positive uses of big data and solutions we are developing at Imperial College to allow large-scale behavioural data to be used while giving individual strong privacy guarantees. BIO Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye is an Assistant Professor (Lecturer) at Imperial College London, where he heads the Computational Privacy Group, and a research affiliate at MIT. His research aims at understanding how the unicity of human behaviour impacts the privacy of individuals--through re-identification or inference--in rich high-dimensional datasets such as mobile phone, credit cards, or browsing data. Yves-Alexandre was recently named an Innovator under 35 for Belgium (TR35). His research has been published in Science and Nature SRep. and covered by the BBC, CNN, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Harvard Business Review, Le Monde, Die Spiegel, Die Zeit, El Pais as well as in his TEDx talks. His work on the shortcomings of anonymisation has appeared in reports of the World Economic Forum, United Nations, OECD, FTC, and the European Commission. Before coming to MIT, he was a researcher at the Santa Fe Institute in New Mexico. Yves-Alexandre worked for the Boston Consulting Group and acted as an expert for both the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the United Nations. He is a member of the WEF network on AI, IoT and the Future of Trust; the IEEE Global Initiative for Ethical Considerations in Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems; and the OECD Advisory Group on Health Data Governance. He received in PhD from MIT in 2016 and obtained, over a period of 6 years, an M.Sc. from Louvain in Applied Mathematics, a M.Sc. (Centralien) from Ecole Centrale Paris, a M.Sc. from KULeuven in Mathematical Engineering as well as his B.Sc. in engineering at Louvain."
"SOCIAL DATA SCIENCES";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-04-20";"11:00";"2018-04-20";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Building 35, room 35.3.20";"SODAS Spring Lecture Series 2018.Lecture by Professor Brit Ross Winthereik and Postdoctoral Researcher James Maguire: 'Locating Data: Big-Tech's Data Centers and the State'";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce the second lecture in its Spring Lecture Series 2018. The theme of the series is Social Data Sciences. Speaking across domains as diverse as computational privacy, legal systems, international finance and big data infrastructures, our speakers will highlight the challenges that we face with these new social data configurations, and the methodological innovations that we need to foster in order to understand and intervene in them. Our next speakers on Friday April 20th are Professor Brit Ross Winthereik and Dr James Maguire, Technologies In Practice Research Group, IT University of Copenhagen. Please see below for the title and abstract of their lecture. Britt Ross Winthereik and James Maguire Locating Data: Big-Tech's Data Centers and the State Abstract The data centers of Big-Tech have recently emerged as important socio-political figures in the renewable energy landscapes of Denmark. Locating vast swathes of data in a country that is renowned for its secure and sustainable energy supply begs the question as to the nature of the relationship between Big-Tech and the Danish state. Grounding our analysis in existing research on data and infrastructures, we suggest seeing this relation as one characterized by exchange. We argue that locating data centers requires the complex material, bureaucratic and political work of converging data and energy infrastructures. At the same time, there are also important not-quite-material elements to infrastructural convergence. Such convergence facilitates not only the exchange of data and energy, but also an exchange of perspectives through which parts of the histories and futures of the state and Big-Tech are transposed onto one another. Data centers are thus more than buildings that store data, they are complex figures that facilitate a reconfiguration of the powers and agencies of both newer (Big-Tech) and more traditional (the state) actors. Lectures will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 11.00am - 12.30pm. Any questions, please email Antonia at acw@anthro.ku.dk"
"SOCIAL DATA SCIENCES";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-05-18";"11:00";"2018-05-18";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Building 35, room 35.3.20";"SODAS Spring Lecture Series 2018.Lecture by professor Christian Borch (CBS): When Algorithms Interact: 'On the Sociality of Financial Markets'.";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS), UCPH, is pleased to announce the third lecture in its Spring Lecture Series 2018. The theme of the series is SOCIAL DATA SCIENCES. Speaking across domains as diverse as computational privacy, legal systems, international finance and big data infrastructures, our speakers will highlight the challenges that we face with these new social data configurations, and the methodological innovations that we need to foster in order to understand and intervene in them. Our next speaker on Friday May 18th is professor Christian Borch. Professor Christian Borch Christian Borch is Professor of Economic Sociology and Social Theory at the Department of Management, Politics and Philosophy, Copenhagen Business School. He is the PI of an ERC-funded project on Algorithmic Finance. Please see below for the title and abstract of his lecture. When Algorithms Interact: On the sociality of financial markets The vast majority of orders being placed in financial markets today are placed by fully automated computer algorithms. These algorithms are designed by humans but when they submit orders to markets, they do so independently and without human intervention. The hectic algorithmic activity of financial markets, in which algorithms are effectively competing with one another, begs the question of how these algorithms might be interacting. In this talk, I will present an ongoing research project tasked with finding answers to that question through a unique combination of qualitative sociological and anthropological work, on the one hand, and a computer simulation of financial markets, on the other. I will outline the backdrop to the project, sketch its basic research design, and finally present some initial findings. The lecture will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 11.00am - 12.30pm. Any questions, please email Antonia at acw@anthro.ku.dk"
"Danish Council on Climate Change: Key points from the new report from the Council on the role of biomass in the Green Transition.";"Department of Economics";"2018-05-18";"14:30";"2018-05-18";"15:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.20/26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K ";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"Peter Lihn Jørgensen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-05-18";"16:30";"2018-05-18";"19:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, The Large Seminar Room (26.2.21)";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Peter Lihn Jørgensen:""Essays in Macroeconomics: Expectations, House Prices, and Inflation"" PhD defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Peter Lihn Jørgensen:""Essays in Macroeconomics: Expectations, House Prices, and Inflation"" The thesis consists of three self-contained chapters on topics related to New Keynesian (NK) macroeconomic models. The first two chapters focus on the implications of boundedly rational expectations in NK models. Specifically, Chapter 1 investigates whether so-called ""trend-chasing"" expectations can help account for the run-up in US house prices during the boom period from 2000 to 2006. Similarly, Chapter 2, which is co-authored by Kevin J. Lansing (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco), analyzes whether so-called ""anchored"" inflation expectations can help explain US inflation dynamics since the outbreak of the Great Recession, which standard rational expectations models have difficulties accounting for. Inflation dynamics is also the focus of the third and final chapter. Specifically, Chapter 3, which is co-authored by Søren Hove Ravn (University of Copenhagen), provides empirical evidence that inflation declines persistently and significantly in response to expansionary fiscal policy shocks. Moreover, this decline is accompanied by an increase in total factor productivity and consumption. We show that the introduction of so-called ""variable technology utilization"" can enable an otherwise standard NK model to reproduce these empirical findings."
"SOCIAL DATA SCIENCES";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-06-08";"11:00";"2018-06-08";"12:30";"CSS Campus, Building 35, room 35.3.20";"SODAS Spring Lecture Series 2018.Final Lecture by Professor Gillian Hadfield, University of Southern California: 'AI Alignment and Human Normativity'";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) at the University of Copenhagen is pleased to announce the final lecture in its Spring Lecture Series 2018. The theme of the series is Social Data Sciences. Speaking across domains as diverse as computational privacy, legal systems, international finance and big data infrastructures, our speakers will highlight the challenges that we face with these new social data configurations, and the methodological innovations that we need to foster in order to understand and intervene in them. Our final speaker is Professor Gillian Hadfield. Gillian Hadfield is Richard L. and Antoinette Schamoi Kirtland Professor of Law and Professor of Economics, School of Law, University of Southern California. AI Alignment and Human Normativity Abstract Much of the discussion of AI safety and alignment focuses on how we should regulate AI: what norms AIs should observe. Less attention is paid to the question of how we can build AI systems that are capable of observing human norms. In this talk, I’ll explore two dimensions of this question ofhow to design AI systems that can interface with human normative systems. The first looks at how human systems deal with the inevitable problem of incompleteness in the contracts intended to specify how human agents should perform. Here we see human systems depend heavily on external institutional structure providing normative information about what is preferred behaviour and internal cognitive structure that can read and use that external institutional information to fill out incomplete contracts. AI, we argue, will similarly need the ability to read the external normative environment and convert that information into inevitably incomplete reward structures. In the second part of the talk, I’ll present an example of why developing aligned AI systems will require much more sophisticated models of human normative systems than we currently possess. This example demonstrates why we should expect that human normative systems contain ""silly rules""—rules with little functional content—in order to support the stability of equilibria in which important rules are enforced. The point is that human normative systems are more complex than a simple focus on a handful of ethical puzzles or normative debates reveals. AI systems that lack models that track the complexity of human normative systems will, we argue, struggle to integrate into human societies. Short Bio Gillian Hadfield is a leading proponent of the reform and redesign of legal systems for a rapidly changing world facing tremendous challenge from globalisation and technology. Her extensive research examines how to make law more accessible, effective, and capable of fulfilling its role in balancing innovation, growth, and fairness. Hadfield is a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on the Future of Technology, Values and Policy, and co-curates the Forum’s Transformation Map for Justice and Legal Infrastructure. She was appointed in 2017 to the American Bar Association’s Commission on the Future of Legal Education, serves as Director of the USC Center for Law and Social Science, and is a member of the World Justice Project’s Research Consortium. She serves as an advisor to The Hague Institute for the Innovation of Law, LegalZoom, and other legal tech startups. Hadfield holds a J.D. from Stanford Law School and Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University. The lecture will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00am - 12.30pm. Any questions, please email Antonia at acw@anthro.ku.dk."
"Daniel Gerszon Mahler";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-06-25";"13:00";"2018-06-25";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Large Seminarroom, 26.2.21";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Daniel Gerszon Mahler:""Measuring What Matters? Empirical Essays in Welfare Economics"" PhD defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Daniel Gerszon Mahler:""Measuring What Matters? Empirical Essays in Welfare Economics"" A core purpose of economics is to provide knowledge about how to design economic policies. Any discussion about the appropriate design of economic policies hinges on some idea about what matters to society. Frequently, economic policies are judged by the extent to which they generate welfare, where welfare is understood as the satisfaction of preferences. Yet policymakers and ordinary citizens often have other ideas about what welfare is and about the appropriate objective of economic policies, invoking concepts such as freedom, opportunities, and justice. This dissertation contains six chapters, which cast light on whether applying some of these other ideas matters for the design of economic policies. Chapter 1 introduces the dissertation. Chapter 2 analyzes if prospect theory, a theory known to apply to preference-based measures of welfare, also applies to happiness-based measures of welfare. Chapter 3 measures whether individuals have equal opportunities for obtaining welfare, and assesses whether this depends on how welfare is measured. Both chapters conclude that how welfare is measured matters little for policy design. Chapter 4 improves measures of equality of opportunity by using conditional inference regression trees. The last two chapters deal with cases where there is a wedge between preference satisfaction and welfare. Chapter 5 analyzes attitudes towards paternalism in areas where some individuals lack information or willpower to act in their own best interest. Chapter 6 assesses voting outcomes when some individuals are altruistic in the sense that they do not vote for the outcome that maximizes their welfare. In both cases, the results indicate that using preferences may yield misleading policy evaluations. The combined findings of this thesis suggest that using alternative measures of welfare hardly matters as long as internalities, externalities, and public goods are absent."
"Workshop on Endogenous Institutions in Social Dilemmas";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-06-27";"08:30";"2018-06-28";"15:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, building 35, room 35.3.13";"Arranged by Thomas Markussen. Keynote speakers are Louis Putterman from Brown University and Arno Riedl from Maastricht University.";"The Copenhagen Workshop on Endogenous Institutions in Social Dilemmas gathers a group of leading researchers in the field of experimental work on the formation and effects of institutions in social dilemmas. We will discuss, among other things, how efficient institutions emerge and are sustained, and whether the mode of implementing institutions (e.g. by voting or by external force) affects how well the institutions perform. Keynote speakers are Louis Putterman from Brown University and Arno Riedl from Maastricht University. 27 June 8:30-9:00 Registration and welcome 9:00-10:00 Keynote 1Arno Riedl: Neighborhood Choice in Coordination and Cooperation Games 10:00.10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Session 2: DelegationLuca Corazzini: Endogenous Delegation and Coordination with Multiple Public GoodsBjörn Vollan: Democratic Chiefs and Nepotistic Democrats: Evidence from Rural NamibiaErnesto Reuben: Policy Capture by Special Interests in Democracies: The Role of Revolving Doors and Post-Office Employment 12:00-13:30 Lunch 13:30-15:00 Session 3: Choice of InstitutionsRamon Cobo-Reyes: The Effect of Endogenous Group Formation on Sanctioning Institutions: Experimental EvidenceTony Williams: Creating an Efficient Culture of CooperationÖzgür Gürerk: Culture and Prevalence of Sanctioning Institutions 15:00-15:30 Coffee break 15:30-17:00 Session 4: Information and accountabilityChristian Thöni: Information sensitive LeviathansAndreas Nicklisch: Self-governance in Noisy Social Dilemmas: Experimental Evidence on Punishment with Costly MonitoringIngrid Hoem Sjursen: Accountability and taxation: Experimental evidence 28 June 9:00-10:00 Keynote 2Louis Putterman: Collective Action and Democracy: Substitutes or Complements? 10:00-10:30 Coffee break 10:30-12:00 Session 6: Group Decision Making and Social CapitalBen Greiner: Endogenous pattern in preference aggregation in groups - An experimental comparison of Banks and Duggan (2000) and Compte and Jehiel (2010)Melis Kartal: Subjective beliefs and information (mis)aggregationMartin Benedikt Busch: Measuring Social Capital in the Lab 12:00-13:00 Lunch 13:00-14:30 Session 7: Dividends of DemocracyAxel Sonntag: Disincentives from Redistribution: Evidence on a Dividend of DemocracyKenju Kamei: Cooperation and Endogenous Repetition in an Infinitely Repeated Social Dilemma: Experimental EvidenceMikhail Ananyev: Endogenous Leadership in an Asymmetric Public Goods Game. "
"Anne Ardila Brenøe";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-09-03";"14:00";"2018-09-03";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Large Seminar Room (26.2.21)";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Anne Ardila Brenøe:""Causes and Consequences of Gender Differences in Human Capital Formation"" PhD defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Anne Ardila Brenøe:""Causes and Consequences of Gender Differences in Human Capital Formation"" This PhD dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters that revolve around the question of how the social environment shapes the individual’s human capital with a special focus on gender differences in such formation. While each chapter is a result of independent work, the four chapters as a whole provide new insights on the causes and consequences of gender differences in the accumulation of human capital. Chapter 1 documents how sibling gender composition affects women's gender identity. I show that women with a brother relative to those with a sister acquire more traditional gender norms with negative consequences for their labor earnings. I provide evidence of increased gender-specialized parenting in families with mixed sex children, suggesting a stronger transmission of gender norms. Chapter 2 investigates how high school gender composition affects students’ college participation within Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). We find that having a larger proportion of female peers reduces women’s and increases men’s probability of enrolling in and graduating from STEM fields. Chapter 3 examines the differential effects of family disadvantage on the education and adult labor market outcomes of men and women. We show that gender gaps in educational attainment, employment, and earnings are increasing in maternal education (benefiting daughters), while paternal education decreases the gender gaps in educational attainment (favoring sons) and labor market outcomes (favoring daughters). Chapter 4 studies the intergenerational transmission of time preferences. We document that parents transmit their time preferences to children, that the transmission is particularly strong from mothers to daughters, and that the intergenerational propagation of impatience does not fade out as children age. "
"SODAS Data Discussion";"SODAS";"2018-09-07";"11:00";"2018-09-07";"12:00";"35.3.20";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) is pleased to present our first SODAS Data Discussion. The first to researchers to present are Lene Holm Pedersen and Bertel Teilfeldt Hansen on the 7th of September at 11.00-12.00.";" The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce a new series of seminars we call SODAS Data Discussions. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month this fall semester, two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. SODAS Data Discussions will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 - 12.00 the 7th of September, 12th of October and the 9th of November. The first two researchers to take the stage are Lene Holm Pedersen and Bertel Teilfeldt Hansen on the 7th of September at 11.00-12.00. Lene Holm Pedersen is a professor in Public Management at the Department of Political Science and head of research at VIVE. She will present a project application she sent to the Innovation Fund Denmark and the Independent Research Fund Denmark. The project contributes to the emerging research agenda in public administration on administrative burdens and to the red tape literature. The central claim is that lack of efficiency in delivering welfare service may increase inequality, and the project investigate if machine learning and digitalization can be used to shift and reduce administrative burdens. Bertel Teilfeldt Hansen is a postdoc at Department of Political Science, and will present a paper. The paper examines the fight over the social construction of national history. Using 250,000 Wikipedia texts, it shows that when a nation becomes embroiled in civil war in the offline world, online fighting over its national history – both ancient and contemporary – is increased by 66-84 %. If you are interested in presenting your work at a SODAS Data Discussion or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"DATA POLITICS";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-09-28";"11:00";"2018-09-28";"12:30";"35.3.20";"SODAS Fall Lecture Series 2018.The first lecture is by Rasmus Helles, Stine Lomborg and Signe Sophus Lai from The People’s Internet (PIN) project, Department of Media, Cognition and Communication, University of Copenhagen.";"The Centre for Social Data Science is pleased to announce its Fall Lecture Series 2018. Focusing on the theme of “Data Politics”, SODAS has invited speakers to reflect on the role of politics in the age of (big) data. Speaking on themes such as political elections, fake news, data privacy and the globalization of data, the lectures will present cutting edge research on the political challenges the digital revolution presents us with, and the methodological innovations needed to study them. Tracking the trackers. How regional variations in internet policy and business models shape web surfers exposure to third-party tracking services in EU28. Our first speakers are Rasmus Helles, Stine Lomborg and Signe Sophus Lai from The People’s Internet project, Department of Media, Cognition and Communication, University of Copenhagen. Abstract The scandal surrounding Cambridge Analytica sparked international concern about the lack of privacy regarding information collected about web users by giant internet companies. The practice of tracking extends beyond Facebook and Alphabet, and comprises an infrastructure which rely on services provided by a myriad of companies specialising in information collection and aggregation. Tracking also require active participation by website managers, who decide which tracking software is be installed on their servers. We present a mapping of the use of the tracking infrastructure by the 2 000 + most popular websites in Europe. We segregate the sites into clusters based on their use of trackers, and relate key differences between them to regulatory and political decisions, which have helped shape the conditions of development for the world wide web in Europe. Among the key findings are strong patterns of regionalisation within Europe, which point to the enduring influence of policy decisions made in the late 1990s. The project was initiated as part of The Peoples’ Internet-project, sponsored by the Carlsberg Foundation, which aims to map differences between the use and development of internet infrastructure in Europe, the US and China. Our talk is initiated by a brief introduction to the PIN project. Lectures will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 11.00am - 12.30pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"International Workshop: Frontiers in Climate Change Economics";"Department of Economics (ECON) and Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO), University of Copenhagen, Denmark";"2018-10-04";"08:45";"2018-10-05";"15:20";"Room 26.2.21, Building 26, Gammeltoftsgade 19, Copenhagen, Denmark";"International workshop on directed technical change and climate policy, international aspects of the economics of climate change and climate policy, tipping points, and fundamental uncertainty.";"Frontiers in Climate Change Economics 4-5 October 2018, University of Copenhagen The aim of the workshop is the discussion and promotion of recent advances within the economics of climate change. The workshop will concentrate on three themes: Directed technical change and climate policy International aspects of the economics of climate change Climate policy, tipping points, and fundamental uncertainty Keynote speakers Jean Tirole, Toulouse School of Economics, Nobel laureate in Economics 2014, author of 'Economics for the Common Good' John Hassler, IIES, Stockholm University Matti Liski, Aalto University The workshop is co-organised by Department of Economics (ECON) and Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO), University of Copenhagen. Public event Apart from the workshop, there will be a public event Friday 5 October to celebrate the recent release of Jean Tirole's book 'Economics for the Common Good'. Video from the event, where Professor Rick van der Ploeg, Oxford University, chairs a dialogue between Tirole and the audience. "
"Book release: Economics for the Common Good, Jean Tirole";"Department of Economics (ECON) and Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO), University of Copenhagen, Denmark";"2018-10-05";"16:00";"2018-10-05";"17:30";"Chr. Hansen Auditorium, CSS, Building 34, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Cph. K (and not Lecture hall 35.01.05 as earlier announced!)";"A public meeting to celebrate the recent release of Economics for the Common Good, Princeton University Press, by Jean Tirole, winner of the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics.";"Economics for the Common Good Public event with Jean Tirole, Nobel Prize winner in Economics in 2014 It is a great pleasure and honour for Department of Economics (ECON) and Department of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO) to invite to this public event where we will celebrate the recent release of Jean Tirole's book 'Economics for the Common Good', Princeton University Press. In his book Tirole, awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2014, applies his economic insights to address, in an accessible way, urgent social and political issues of today, ranging from the recent financial crisis, labor market laws, industrial policy, how the digital revolution changes everything, and – not the least – the problem of climate change. In the chapter on climate change Tirole explains why the hitherto obtained international agreements (e.g. Copenhagen 2009 and Paris 2015) are insufficient and ineffective. Tirole addresses the key question: How can an international coalition to combat global warming be fair and effective so that “free rider” countries are avoided? At the meeting Tirole will introduce themes from the book. Then Professor Frederick van der Ploeg, Oxford University, a leading scholar in macroeconomics, public economics and environmental economics will interview Tirole and chair a dialogue between Tirole and the audience. Jean Tirole’s Nobel Prize, 2014: Jean Tirole was rewarded the Nobel Prize in 2014 for his pathbreaking and wide-ranging contributions to the economics of market power and regulation. Practical Information The event is public.Free admission. The event is arranged by Dept. of Economics (ECON) and Dept. of Food and Resource Economics (IFRO) as an offshoot of an international workshop, “Frontiers in Climate Change Economics”, held at ECON, 4-5 October. Organizing committee: Julien Daubanes and Lars Gårn Hansen, IFRO, Christian Groth, Peter Birch Sørensen, and Hans Jørgen Whitta-Jacobsen, ECON. The workshop and the public event are supported by the Danish Council on Climate Change and the Danish Economic Council."
"SODAS DATA DISCUSSION";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-10-12";"11:00";"2018-10-12";"12:00";"35.3.20";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) is pleased to present our second SODAS Data Discussion.";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce a new series of seminars we call SODAS Data Discussions. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month this fall semester, two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Analyzing worldwide gender inequality in mobility through large-scale GPS trajectory data Laura Alessandretti will present at the second SODAS Data Discussion the 12th October. Laura is a PostDoc researcher at DTU Technical University of Denmark and the Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science, in the team of Sune Lehmann. Abstract The availability of large scale geolocated datasets has enabled scientists to advance the understanding of human mobility behaviour. While many aspects have been clarified, studies focusing on gender differences have come to different conclusions. Understanding gender inequality in human mobility is a challenging task also due to the lack of data sources providing measurements across multiple countries and age groups. In this study, we investigate gender differences in human mobility by analyzing a new dataset collecting movements of ~3 millions individuals across the world over several years. Our preliminary results show that, on average, there is a gender gap in mobility, with women scoring lower on most indicators including the daily number of steps, the typical extent of one’s whereabouts, and the exploration rate. The gender gap is typically larger for individuals between 25 and 40 years old, but the size of the gap and its evolution across the lifespan are considerably different across countries. Our ongoing research focuses on explaining these variations, resorting to factors including cultural differences between countries and different gender policies. SODAS Data Discussions will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 - 12.00 the 12th of October and the next one being the 9th of November. If you are interested in presenting your work at a SODAS Data Discussion or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"DATA POLITICS";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-10-26";"11:00";"2018-10-26";"12:30";"35.3.20";"SODAS Fall Lecture Series 2018.The second lecture is by Michele Coscia, Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Science, IT University of Copenhagen.";"The Centre for Social Data Science is pleased to announce its Fall Lecture Series 2018. Focusing on the theme of “Data Politics”, SODAS has invited speakers to reflect on the role of politics in the age of (big) data. Speaking on themes such as political elections, fake news, data privacy and the globalization of data, the lectures will present cutting edge research on the political challenges the digital revolution presents us with, and the methodological innovations needed to study them. Average is Boring: How Similarity Kills a Meme's Success (and what does it mean for our democracy?) Our next speaker on Friday the 26th of October is Michele Coscia, who is Assistant Professor at the Department of Computer Science, IT University of Copenhagen. Abstract We define a meme as the fundamental building block of culture, just like a gene is the fundamental building block of biology. A meme can be a catchphrase, a tune, an architectural feature. We study Internet memes because it is easy to collect them and to gauge their popularity. Computer scientists have proposed many theories about why memes go viral: timely attention, social prominence of first spreaders, and mankind's collective limited attention. My favorite explanation focuses on content: the memes that go viral are the ones that have something unique about them. I provide a way to measure meme-meme similarity and show that, indeed, the memes with low average similarity are the most successful ones. This has repercussions when it comes to political discourse online: extreme trumps moderate because extreme is more surprising. Moreover, fake news stories have an inherent advantage over real ones, because they are unconstrained by reality and thus can be crafted with virality - rather than veracity - in mind. Lectures will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 11.00am - 12.30pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Glen Weyl, Microsoft Research and Princeton University";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-10-29";"8:30";"2018-10-29";"9:30";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS, building 26, Large Seminar Room (26.2.21)";"""Radical Markets: Uprooting Capitalism and Democracy for a Just Society"". The seminar is arranged in co-operation with ""Økonomisk Politisk Netværk"".";"""Radical Markets: Uprooting Capitalism and Democracy for a Just Society"".The seminar is arranged in co-operation with ""Økonomisk Politisk Netværk"". Abstract: TBA"
"Ashenafi Belayneh Ayenew";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-10-30";"13:00";"2018-10-30";"17:00";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Large Seminar Room (26.2.21)";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Ashenafi Belayneh Ayenew:""Essays in Development Economics: Shocks, Insurance, and Health"" PhD defense";"Ph.d.-forsvar: Ashenafi Belayneh Ayenew:""Essays in Development Economics: Shocks, Insurance, and Health"" The thesis consists of three self-contained chapters.Chapter 1 investigates the effects of climatic water scarcity and drought on the spread of diarrheal disease, the leading cause of mortality and morbidity in young children. By linking a panel survey of children from Ethiopia to measures of climatic water scarcity and drought constructed from two high resolution geospatial climate series, I find evidence that climatic water scarcity significantly increases the spread of diarrheal disease. Further results reveal that a drought doubles the existing diarrheal disease prevalence in the country. These effects exist entirely in rural areas. I provide evidence on the validity of a couple of potential mechanisms that could explain part of the link between climatic water scarcity and incidence of diarrheal disease. I further document the roles of safety nets and access to infrastructure in this link. Chapter 2 builds upon Chapter 1 and further documents that climatic water scarcity and drought increases households’ credit demand and debt burden in rural Ethiopia. I show that households borrow exclusively informally in response to climatic water scarcity and drought. A higher disease burden is one of the mechanisms that explain the main results.Chapter 3 examines rural households’ ex ante and ex post labor adaptation to agricultural risk and shocks, respectively. Using a detailed panel survey of farm households from rural Mozambique matched to proxies of agricultural income risk and adverse shocks, I find suggestive evidence that households engage in ex ante labor adaptation by sending out members internationally. Robust findings show that households engage in contemporaneous ex post labor adaptation by sending out members both domestically and internationally"
"Workshop: How do we map social networks and how can we &#8217;say stuff&#8217; about the qualities and forms of relations within them?";" Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS), University of Copenhagen & Department of Sociology, Yonsei University, and Asian Dynamics Initiative";"2018-10-31";"09:00";"2018-10-31";"11:30";"CSS, Room: 35.3.20";"A joint workshop between the Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS), University of Copenhagen & Department of Sociology, and Yonsei University.";"If there is one thing that the qualitative social sciences have taught us, it is that humans are social beings who thrive within webs of ‘healthy’, ‘good quality’ relations and conversely may suffer when isolated and detached. Whether at home, among family and friends, in school, on the job or pursuing hobbies, possibilities for leading a ‘good life’ are often seen as reliant on whether or not a person is surrounded by supportive social networks that sustain social recognition, mutual care (both caring for and caring about) and common interests. Conversely, we know also that falling in with ‘a bad crowd’ can ultimately lead to detrimental outcomes. With the advent of new digital methods, machine learning and forms of smart tracking, the kinds of questions we can ask about social networks and the forms and qualities of relations within them are changing. Moreover, interesting opportunities for linking up qualitative and quantitative data sets are also emerging. In this mini workshop, using concrete case studies, we will explore what new kinds of questions can be asked and explored about social networks using new social data science methods whether alone or in conjunction with qualitative methodologies, and how we can productively bring variegated data sets together. All are welcome. Please register by sending an email to Agnete Vienberg Hansen avh@econ.ku.dk Abstracts: Mapping the complete social networks of an entire village in South KoreaProf. Yoosik Youm, Department of Sociology, Yonsei University, South Korea. What kind of data would be proper to measure the social structure of a community? The ‘Korean Social life, Health, and Aging Project’ (KSHAP) is a panel data trying to capture the social structure of a village by measuring the social networks of older adults. All the older adults in the village were asked to enumerate their discussion partners up to seven people based on real names so that we can map out the complete social networks of the entire village. In addition to the traditional demographic information such as age, gender, educational level, the KSHAP could produce a series of social network measures including size, density, centrality positions, K-core, closure, etc. In addition to the social network survey, the KSHAP also included psychical examination including blood drawing and fMRI brain scans to produce various biomarkers. This presentation will overview the data collection process of the KSHAP and some selected health-related research outcomes. Virtual ethnography through/on FacebookDr. Natasja Kingod, Department of Anthropology, University of Copenhagen Facebook is one of the largest social networking sites worldwide with more than 2 billion users and with an average of 90% access through mobile devices. Since Facebook launched its community pages function in 2010 people are increasingly using the platform to establish groups and communities among common interests such as diseases where health-related peer support provides tools and knowledge on how to live with illness. Due to the increase of interest in Facebook among people with various health conditions, many researchers have been drawn to the platform using various approaches and methodologies from data crawling and tracking software to traditional ethnographic approaches. My presentation draws on methodological reflections of a year of fieldwork for my PhD study as an online-offline ethnographer following Danish adults with type 1 diabetes into online and offline social spaces of peer to peer interaction. More specifically, I will outline the approach I used to both identify and map 17 communities, recruit members for an offline study, reflect on my my own level of ethnographic participation and the limitations to selected methodologies. Let’s get closer: Measuring the effect of physical proximity using big dataPh.D. student Kristoffer Glavind, Department of Economics and SODAS, University of Copenhagen Physical distance between individuals in a central for the social interactions, but we know surprisingly little of in which way. The field proxemics was a big field within social psychology trough the 1960’s and 1970’s, but the field declined (partly) because of the cost of large scale observation. Now mobile phone data from the Social Fabric project, give new opportunities to observe the distance between people in everyday social interactions. I find that distance in social interactions is a strong measure of friendship, and show that for a range of characteristics homophily is correlated with lower distance in social interactions. Further I show preliminary evidence that misunderstanding the norms of proximity (by keeping either too little or too much distance to your peers) is correlated with significantly fewer social interactions. All are welcome. Please register by sending an email to Agnete Vienberg Hansen avh@econ.ku.dk This event is part of the ongoing research collaboration between Yonsei University and the University of Copenhagen "
"Anders Munk-Nielsen, University of Copenhagen";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2018-11-06";"10:30";"2018-11-06";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 K";"""Markups on Dropdowns: Lexicographically Ordered Search and Drug Prices""Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"""Markups on Dropdowns: Lexicographically Ordered Search and Drug Prices"" Abstract When doctors in Denmark write prescriptions for generic drugs, they choose from a lexicographically (alphabetically) sorted dropdown list. This results in a competitive advantage to being ranked alphabetically first. We show that firm prices respond to alphabetical rank in a statistically significant way and that the relationship is robust to using vastly different sources of variation, relying on our unique data setting with many markets and many time periods. We then explore whether prices are increasing or decreasing in rank. Theoretical work has found opposite conclusions depending on whether there is heterogeneity in search costs or product match values. Our findings suggest that the answer depends on the level of competition: the price-rank gradient is negative in markets with few firms and gradually increases and eventually becomes positive in markets with many firms. Leveraging transaction-level data linked to consumer demographics on the full population, we show that this competition channel is far stronger than the previously emphasized channels. Keywords: Ordered search, pharmaceutical prices, market power, status quo bias, firm names. "
"SODAS DATA DISCUSSION";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-11-09";"11:00";"2018-11-09";"12:00";"35.3.20";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) is pleased to present our third SODAS Data Discussion.";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce a new series of seminars we call SODAS Data Discussions. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month this fall semester, two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Laboratory storyBiometrics, body-cartographers and infrastructures of mobility Kristina Grünenberg will present at our third SODAS Data Discussion the 9th of November. Kristina is Associate Professor at the Department of Antopology, University of Copenhagen. Abstract This presentation focuses on the work that takes place in a biometric laboratory where different kinds of biometric technologies, based on the digitalisation of body parts, such as finger veins and facial features, as well as body sounds and rhythms from e.g. voices and heartbeats, constitute the object of research and development. The presentation focuses on biometric researchers’ continuous endeavours to identify new unique body properties and ‘enroll’ them as biometric modalities. I argue that researchers see themselves as a form of ‘body cartographers’ mapping new body landscapes, exploring their uniqueness and the ways in which can they relate particular bodies to identities. What is important for the researchers is the constant creative tinkering with (new) body-parts and their characteristics, with algorithmic precision, relations to soft- and hardware programs, sensors, and, at times, user bodies. In the context of this work, the lab is configured as a playground and a site for creative exploration, but also as part of a particular type of security infrastructure. SODAS Data Discussion will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 - 12.00 the 9th of November. If you are interested in presenting your work at a SODAS Data Discussion or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Antonio D'Agata, University of Catania";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2018-11-20";"10:30";"2018-11-20";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""A Variational Inequality Approach to the Pioncaré-Miranda Theorem: Theory and economic applications"". Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf.";"""A Variational Inequality Approach to the Poincaré-Miranda Theorem: Theory and economic applications"" Summary Recently, the Poincaré-Miranda (PM) Theorem was proved by using a boundary condition expressed in terms of normal cones (the s.c. avoiding cones (AC) condition). We frame the PM Theorem in terms of variational inequalities and provide two boundary conditions equivalent to the AC condition. The use of the variational inequality approach and of the alternative conditions unveils the common logic behind extant proofs of the PM Theorem, offers generalizations of existing results, and yields economic applications as well. In this context, in particular, we prove the existence of a walrasian equilibrium without the properties and homogeneity and Walras’ Law of the excess demand function. We show also that, whenever the standard simplex is used as price set, the Walras' Law can be substantially weakened but cannot be completely disposed of, as it compensates for the low dimension of the price Space."
"SODAS Talk";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-11-23";"11:00";"2018-11-23";"12:00";"CSS Campus, Building 35, room 35.3.20 ";"Philipp Lorenz-Spreen, M.Sc, from Technische Universitat Berlin is giving a presentation.";"Dynamics of collective attention: Competition for ephemeral popularity and the impact of modern communication pathways Philipp Lorenz-Spreen, M.Sc. at Technische Universität Berlin, is visiting SODAS and will be presenting at a SODAS Talk Friday the 23th November 2018. Abstract Operationalised as e.g. usage volume of hashtags, movie ticket sales or the counts of comments on online forums, we measure the dynamics of ‘public attention’ for various cultural items in large online data sets. These trajectories of public attention became accessible since the onset of social media, which is characterised by a high level of self-organisation. We design interpretable models that rely on the basic mechanisms ‘imitation’, ‘saturation’ and ‘competition’, inspired by the modern attention economy of the internet. We use two different modelling frameworks, stochastic ranking dynamics and Lotka-Volterra equations, to interconnect these ingredients. The higher-level insight is that bursty dynamics and scale-free event sizes are caused by the critical tensions of competition in an interplay with the ephemerality of popularity. Rapid and dense communication pathways across the internet are not only interesting as new data sources, but also as the cause of alterations in our collective behaviour. In a large-scale data study, we find strong empirical evidence for the systematic acceleration of the public discussion. With the help of the models we develop, quicker adoption of popular topics can be linked to an earlier descent of collective interest. Social media platforms became the stages for the formation of opinions and ever shorter intervals of attention for different topics might reduce the depths and duration of reporting. These findings have the potential to help to understand the dynamics of the public discussion better and to mitigate possible negative developments in modern communication systems. The SODAS Talk will take place in Building 35, Floor 3, Room 20 (35.3.20) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 11.00am - 12.00pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"SODAS Talk";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) ";"2018-11-27";"10:30";"2018-11-27";"11:30";"CSS, Room: 35.2.36";"Robert Böhm, RWTH Aachen University is giving a presentation.";"The vaccine effectiveness fallacy Robert Böhm, RWTH Aachen Universitet, is visiting SODAS and will be presenting at a SODAS Talk Tuesday the 27th of November 2018. Abstract Vaccination provides direct benefits for the vaccinating individuals by reducing the likelihood of contracting infectious diseases at marginal costs. In addition, most vaccines provide indirect benefits for unvaccinated individuals by reducing the spread of pathogens in the population (herd immunity). When considering both its direct and indirect benefits, individuals have an incentive to free-ride on others’ indirect protection with increasing vaccination rates. Previous research on interactive vaccination decisions assumed explicitly or implicitly that vaccinations protect effectively against contracting diseases, i.e., in 100% of the vaccinations. However, this is virtually never achieved and the effectiveness of vaccines varies widely. In the present research, we theoretically analyse the behavioural consequences of ineffective (vs. effective) vaccines in a game-theoretical framework of interactive vaccination decisions. We find that ineffective vaccines increase the individual incentives for vaccination because the indirect benefits of herd immunity decrease. To investigate the effect of vaccine (in)effectiveness on vaccination behaviour empirically, we conducted two online experiments using convenience samples of the normal population (N = 358) and health care workers (N = 138). We observe a vaccine effectiveness fallacy: participants reduce their vaccination intentions with decreasing vaccine effectiveness. In a second step, we conducted an additional laboratory experiment (N = 288), implementing an interactive vaccination game with monetary incentives. In contrast to the surveys, participants received full information about the direct and indirect effect of vaccinations and the corresponding consequences of decreasing vaccine effectiveness. Results show that vaccination becomes more likely when participants face an ineffective (vs. effective) vaccine, eliminating the vaccine effectiveness fallacy. We discuss the implications for vaccination policy and potential interventions to increase vaccine uptake. The SODAS Talk will take place in building 35, 2nd floor, room 36 (35.2.36) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 10.30am - 11.30am. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk. "
"José S. Penalva, University Carlos III";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2018-11-27";"10:30";"2018-11-27";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale  35.2.01), 1353 K.";"Information in Judicial Decisions on Financial Advice” Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen";"""Information in Judicial Decisions on Financial Advice” Abstract Both before and after the financial crisis, the marketing and sale of financial products has given rise to serious concerns about the mis-selling of certain financial investments to customers. In many cases, this has led to important numbers of lawsuits filed against firms providing the investment services. In the paper we provide a simple agency model of financial advice - broadly understood - where potential clients receive a signal about the matching of the product with the investor's preferences, and at the same time receive advice about which product to buy. Even good financial products may generate losses, and this will lead to litigation by aggrieved investors. Courts do not directly observe the honesty and fairness of the advice, but only an evidentiary signal. We explore the optimal court policy in order to provide incentives to advisors to procure honest financial advice, and show how it depends on the accuracy of the market signal that investors receive, which in turn depends on the sophistication of the client and the overall amount and quality of information on financial products that advisors provide outside specific (implicit or explicit) advice. The analysis sheds lights on the structure of legal duties for investment services firm under the MiFID II scheme that has entered into force in Europe in January 2018."
"SODAS DATA DISCUSSION";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) ";"2018-11-28";"14:30";"2018-11-28";"16:00";"CSS Campus, Building 35, room 35.2.01 ";"The Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) will be hosting a seminar with two presentations, which in different ways are concerned with the relationship between anthropology and data science";" SODAS will be hosting a seminar with two presentations, which in different ways are concerned with the relationship between anthropology and data science. Programming gendered realities: The making of computer scientists in Singapore Samantha Breslin from The Faculty of Business Administration, Memorial University of Newfoundland will be the first to present. Abstract This presentation explores the social and cultural worldviews of those who make the code and algorithms underlying data science, namely computer scientists. In particular, I explore the norms, values, and practices learned by students through undergraduate computer science education in Singapore. Based on ethnographic fieldwork conducted in an undergraduate computer science program, I show how students learn practices of “rendering technical” and “rendering natural.” Students learn how to represent and translate reality into models, algorithms, and code. At the same time, the rules of writing programs are presented as an inherent part of how computers work and their logic as based in the natural evolution of human thought and practice. Computer science knowledge and practice are also rendered in terms of binary gender categories. These gender binaries are, in turn, (re)produced and naturalized in and by teaching examples, computer science concepts, and a variety of human and nonhuman actors. This paper thus shows how renderings and genderings of computer science knowledge and practice – and of reality – govern the possible ways for students and professors to think about and do both computer science and gender. Open Data politics: data sharing beyond public/private divides Luis Felipe R. Murillo from Tampere University of Technology, CERN will be the second to present. Abstract One of the pressing issues for advancing open research data sharing with privacy protection has to do with the shifting terrains under which the public and the private are imagined, designed, implemented, and instantiated across digital platforms. In the context of expansion of research infrastructures, the politics of “openness” provides us with both an entry point and a privileged perspective into long-lasting debates in computing as well as in the social sciences. These debates mobilize different forms of expertise, digital tools, and distinct regulatory frameworks to approach information security, human subject protection, de-anonymization, and privacy violation. In this talk, I will examine these issues with a focus on the promises and challenges of Open Data for scaling up research collaborations and improving data privacy provisions. As part of a broader research agenda, I suggest combining empirical research on digital infrastructures and data analytics with interdisciplinary collaborations around “data management plans” in order to respond to complex issues of anonymity, privacy, and consent in the emergent field of social data science. The seminar will take place in building 35, 2nd floor, room 1 (35.2.01) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 14.30pm - 16.00pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Anne Sofie Beck Knudsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2018-11-30";"13:30";"2018-11-30";"17:00";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21";"Anne Sofie Beck Knudsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Persistence and Change in Long-Run Development""";"Anne Sofie Beck Knudsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Persistence and Change in Long-Run Development"" Kandidat Anne Sofie Beck Knudsen Titel på afhandlingen ""Persistence and Change in Long-Run Development"" . Tid og sted 30. november 2018 kl. 13:30, Københavns Universitet, Center for Sundhed og Samfund, Økonomisk Institut, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K., bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Jeanet Bentzen, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Sascha O. Becker, University of Warwick, UK Professor Uwe Sunde, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Tyskland Resumé This Ph.D. thesis contributes to the understanding of what drives persistence and change in long-run development. Chapter 1 documents how the Age of Mass Migration (1850-1920) generated cultural change towards collectivism and convergence across Scandinavian localities. Comparing all migrants and stayers of the period, I find that people with stronger individualistic traits were more likely to migrate. Since more than 25% of the population left in this period, the self-selectivity of migrants caused a considerable reduction in Scandinavian individualism, which has lasted up until today. In Chapter 2, I examine the transmission of collectivistic cultural traits across and between more than four million North European families during the period 1703-1910. I find that parents adhere to the cultural values inherited from their childhood homes and pass them on to their own children. The transmission is not perfect and parents appear to be influenced by the average cultural traits of the surrounding population, interfamily structures, and minority status. Evidence suggests that parents actively socialize their children, but are in possession of limited resources and view socialization by society as a substitute. Chapter 3 is joint work with Carl-Johan Dalgaard and Pablo Selaya, and here we document that a high level of natural productivity of the ocean has had a persistently positive impact on economic development. We argue that this is due to early settlements on the coast, which fostered human capabilities that were complementary to industrialization, and allowed for an early take-off to Growth. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut "
"Hans Jarle Kind, NHH, Bergen";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2018-12-04";"10:30";"2018-12-04";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 K.";"""Competition with Personalized Pricing and Strategic Product Customization "" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf.";"""Competition with Personalized Pricing and Strategic Product Customization"" Abstract Consumers leave increasingly more digital footprints, and this improves firms' ability to practice personalized pricing (first-degree price discrimination) instead of uniform pricing. Given the choice, it is a dominant strategy for firms to use personalized pricing. However, competition between firms that use personalized prices might become so intense that they would have been better off if they instead used uniform prices. We ask whether strategic commitments on non-price variables like product customization or product differentiation might reduce firms' incentives to personalize prices. To answer this question, we first note that it is optimal for a firm that personalizes prices to set the purchasing price equal to marginal costs from consumers who buy from a rival. This is true independently of whether the rival has made any non-price commitments. In contrast, if a firm uses uniform pricing, the rival has incentives to make non-price commitments that soften competition. We show that this implies that the firms might non-cooperatively commit to uniform pricing to avoid being trapped in a highly competitive equilibrium. Authors: Øystein Foros, Hans Jarle Kind and Mai Nguyen-Ones "
"SODAS Talk";"Copenhagen Centre for Social Data Science (SODAS) ";"2018-12-04";"11:00";"2018-12-04";"11:45";"CSS, Room: 35.2.36";"Federico Battiston from the Center for Network Science - Central European University (Budapest) is visiting SODAS and giving a presentation.";"Taking census of physics Federico Battiston from the Center for Network Science - Central European University (Budapest) will be presenting at a SODAS Talk Tuesday the 4th of December 2018. Abstract There was a time when polymaths like Galileo knew all the physics that was there to be known. Over the centuries, however, the body of knowledge spanned by physics exploded, encompassing topics as diverse as gravitational waves, graphene, or network science. As physics expanded in breadth and depth, physicists were forced to specialise, segmenting researchers into their narrow, specialised communities. How many physicists work in each subfield of physics today and how does each subdiscipline evolve? In which subfield are physicists “born” into and where do they migrate, if at all? Which physics communities are the most productive, and have the highest impact? Here we take an intellectual census of physicists, their activities and career trajectories, helping us gaining quantitative insights about several fundamental scientific processes, from resource allocation to the exchange of knowledge, and understand the evolution of one of the oldest scientific fields. The SODAS Talk will take place in building 35, 2nd floor, room 36 (35.2.36) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 11.00am - 11.45am. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Anne-Line Koch Helsø forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2018-12-10";"13:00";"2018-12-10";"17:00";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21";"Anne Line Koch Helsø forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: “Labor Supply and Earnings: In old age, in bad health, and across generations” ";"Anne Line Koch Helsø forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: “Labor Supply and Earnings: In old age, in bad health, and across generations” Kandidat Anne-Line Koch Helsø Titel “Labor Supply and Earnings: In old age, in bad health, and across generations” Tid og sted 10. december 2018 kl. 13:00, Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Carl-Johan Lars Dalgaard, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Denmark (formand)Professor Nabanita Datta Gupta, Aarhus Universitet, DanmarkProfessor Espen Bratberg, Bergen Universitet, Norge Abstract The three chapters of this dissertation all revolve around the labor supply and earnings of individuals In Chapter 1, we study the labor supply decision of seniors, and how financial incentives affect their retirement decisions. We propose and estimate a novel structural retirement model with leisure preference heterogeneity. We study the extent to which larger private retirement savings dampens the effect of retirement reforms that target an increase in labor supply. Our findings suggest that the effect of raising the normal retirement age by one year is more than halved for individuals who hold private retirement savings equivalent to at least four years of earnings. Chapter 2 studies the labor supply and earnings costs of hospitalizations and evaluate the quality of treatment based on its ability to mitigate the labor market consequences of a given diagnosis. We measure a four percentage points difference in lost earnings between the best and worst hospital, all else equal. We also document a significant decline in the labor cost of hospitalizations over time and find that the average post-hospitalization reduction in labor supply has declined by 13.6 percentage points from 1998 to 2012. In Chapter 3, I present a novel cross-country comparison of intergenerational income mobility in Denmark and the U.S. Unlike existing studies, I rely on high-quality administrative data for both countries. I find that Denmark is 50-100% more mobile than the U.S. I contrast my findings to the existing literature, which finds larger cross-country differences, and show that my results are more robust to sample selection and measurement error biases. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut."
"Tymofiy Mylovanov, University of Pittsburgh";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2018-12-11";"10:30";"2018-12-11";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 København K";"""Optimal Mechanism Design of Blockchain"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen";"""Optimal Mechanism Design of Blockchain"""
"URBAN Workshop 2018";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2018-12-13";"08:45";"2018-12-13";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21 (Large Seminarroom)";"Arranged by Mogens Fosgerau and Bertel Schjerning";" Venue: University of Copenhagen Department of EconomicsØster Farimagsgade 5building 26, 2nd floor Thursday December 13th 08:45 Coffee + croissant 09:00 Intra-Household Allocation of Commuting and the Gender Wage Gap Maria Juul Hansen, Uni. of Copenhagen 09:45 A discrete-continuous model of car portfolio choice Anders Munk-Nielsen, Uni. of Copenhagen 10:30 Coffee + fruit 11:00 A Dynamic Structural Equilibrium Model of Household Home and Job Location Decisions Bertel Schjerning, Uni. of Copenhagen 11:45 Quasi-experimental Evidence on Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases Kenneth Gillingham, Yale University 12:30 Lunch + coffee 13:30 Travel time variability and rational inattention Mogens Fosgerau, Uni. of Copenhagen 14:15 Fast semiparametric estimation of Markov Decision Processes Christer Persson, KTH 15:00 Coffee + fruit 15:30 Wages and accessibility - evidence from Denmark Elias Stapput Knudsen, DTU 16:15 About the origin of cities André de Palma, ENS Cachan 17:00 Pause 18:20 Dinner "
"DATA POLITICS";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2018-12-13";"11:00";"2018-12-13";"12:30";"CSS, Room: 1.1.18";"SODAS Fall Lecture Series 2018.The third lecture is by Joshua Tucker, Professor of Politics, Director Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia, Co-Director NYU Social Media and Political Participation (SMaPP) lab.";"The Centre for Social Data Science is pleased to announce its Fall Lecture Series 2018. Focusing on the theme of “Data Politics”, SODAS has invited speakers to reflect on the role of politics in the age of (big) data. Speaking on themes such as political elections, fake news, data privacy and the globalization of data, the lectures will present cutting edge research on the political challenges the digital revolution presents us with, and the methodological innovations needed to study them. Trumping Hate on Twitter? Online Hate Speech in the 2016 US Election Campaign and its Aftermath Our final speaker of the fall 2018 is Joshua Tucker, who is Professor of Politics, Director Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia, Co-Director NYU Social Media and Political Participation (SMaPP) lab. Abstract As the role of social media platforms in fostering extremism and offline violence has come under scrutiny, online hate speech has received increased attention from academics and policy makers alike. But despite a growing body of research devoted to defining and detecting online hate speech, the existing scientific literature lacks a systematic framework for assessing how the volume and content of these harmful messages change over time. Offering a new approach to measuring the real-time dynamics of online hate, this paper explores whether and to what extent hate speech and white nationalist rhetoric on Twitter increased over the course of Donald Trump's 2016 presidential campaign and in the aftermath of his election. The prevailing narrative suggests that Trump's political rise - and his unexpected victory - led to a ""mainstreaming'' of online bigoted rhetoric that was once relegated to the dark corners of the Internet. However, our analysis of over 750 million tweets related to the election, in addition to almost 400 million tweets from a random sample of American Twitter, over a two year period, provides novel evidence that runs counter to this narrative. Using both machine-learning-augmented dictionary-based methods and an original classification approach leveraging data from Reddit communities associated with the alt-right movement, we observe no persistent increase in hate speech or white nationalist language either over the course of the campaign or in the aftermath of Trump's election. Instead, hate speech was ""bursty'': while there were notable spikes in hateful language, these effects quickly dissipated. Demonstrating the importance of studying online behavior systematically over time, we find no empirical support for the proposition that the Trump phenomenon systematically mainstreamed online hate on Twitter. The lecture will take place in building 1, 1st floor, room 18 (1.1.18) of the CSS Campus, Copenhagen University, from 11.00am - 12.30pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Christina Gravert, University of Copenhagen";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2018-12-18";"10:30";"2018-12-18";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 K.";"""Peer Evaluation Tournaments"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"""Peer Evaluation Tournaments"" Abstract We want to win, but we also care about our reputation. We conduct a psychological game-theoretic analysis of the tradeoff between increasing ones chances of winning a tournament and not being identified as a cheater by fellow contestants. We extend the model by Dufwenberg & Dufwenberg (2018) on perceived cheating aversion to a multi-player setting with subjective performance evaluations. We then test the model predictions in a lab experiment. Note: This work is preliminary, there is no paper at this point "
"Ludvig Wier forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2018-12-19";"15:00";"2018-12-19";"18:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21";"Ludvig Wier forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Hide and Seek for Professionals: How Corporate Profits Fled High-Tax Countries (and Where to Find Them)""";"Ludvig Wier forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Hide and Seek for Professionals: How Corporate Profits Fled High-Tax Countries (and Where to Find Them)"" Kandidat Ludvig Wier Titel “Hide and Seek for Professionals: How Corporate Profits Fled High-Tax Countries (and Where to Find Them)"" Tid og sted 19. december 2018 kl. 15:00, Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Peter Birch Sørensen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Jukka Pirttilä, Helsinki Universitet, FinlandProfessor Nadine Riedel, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Tyskland Resumé Multinationals can lower their global tax bill by shifting their earnings from affiliates in high-tax countries to tax havens - a phenomenon known as “profit shifting”. These accounting techniques are putting governments under pressure and causing public outrage. However, basic questions are still left unanswered, such as how much revenue is lost, who loses and how to stop it. Meanwhile, corporate tax rates across the globe continue to plummet, as countries try to protect their tax base or even seek to become the next tax haven. The clock is ticking and the window for action is closing. This PhD thesis seeks to assist in closing the knowledge gap and informing policy makers on what actions to take. In collaboration with various co-authors, I examine the following questions: How are profits shifted to low-tax places? Which countries are vulnerable to profit shifting and why? How much do countries lose? What could be done to fix the system of international corporate taxation? Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut"
"Vaiva Petrikaite, Institute of Economic Analysis (Barcelona)";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-10";"13:00";"2019-01-10";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar ";" “Search Choice, Pricing and Obfuscation”. Job Market Seminar Abstract The paper studies a costly consumer search market with horizontally differentiated products in which consumers may buy goods without inspecting them. A customer rationally decides on the order in which she considers products, and if it is worth searching a good before buying it. With mass market products, consumers always consider cheaper products first. However if firms sell niche market products, the consumers often consider more expensive products first. When search costs are high, firms adjust their prices in a way that consumers do not have incentives to search before purchasing. The fact that a consumer may buy a good without inspecting it creates incentives for firms to obfuscate by raising their search costs. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen "
"Marta Lopes, Universidade Nova de Lisboa";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-10";"15:00";"2019-01-10";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 35, room 35.3.13";"Job Market Seminar";"""Job Security and Fertility Decisions"". Job Market Seminar Abstract The restrictions on duration and number of allowed renewals implied by fixed--term contracts generate lower job security. In many countries, these contracts are particularly common among young women. In this paper, I study the impact of job security on fertility decisions. Using a policy reform, which took place in Portugal in 2003, I show that the lower job security associated with fixed-term contracts decreases the likelihood of giving birth. The negative effect is particularly strong for shorter contracts. To identify the different channels that explain these results, I build and estimate a dynamic life-cycle structural model where women decide both labour supply and fertility, conditional on the characteristics of the job contract. I then simulate two different labour market policies that have been discussed in the public debate. Imposing an automatic conversion into permanent contracts, with higher job security, at the end of the fixed-term contract limit, decreases the number of childless women by 8.3%. In contrast, applying contract-specific tax rates, penalizing fixed-term contract wages and subsidizing permanent contract wages, induces 20% of the women who are already mothers to have their second child. These results corroborate the reduced-form evidence, showing that job security is especially important at first birth and income is relatively more important for subsequent birth decisions. Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner and Mette Gørtz"
"Albin Erlanson, Department of Economics (Stockholm)";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-15";"13:00";"2019-01-15";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"Optimal allocations with capacity constrained verification. Job Market Seminar Abstract There is a principal with m identical objects to allocate among a group of n agents. Objects are desirable and each agent needs at most one copy. Assigning an object to agent i generates a value of t_i to the principal and the principal’s objective is to maximize the expected value from allocating the m objects. Agent i’s type t_i is his private information. There are no monetary transfers available but the principal can verify up to k agents, where k<m, upon which he perfectly learns the verified agent’s type. The principal can penalize a lying agent by not assigning him an object. We find the optimal mechanism to allocate the m objects. This mechanism asks agents to report their type and divides the type space into three different intervals. An agent with a report in the highest interval is assigned an object if he is among the m highest reports. An agent with a report in the middle interval is assigned an object with certainty if he is among the k highest reports, otherwise he takes part in a lottery for any remaining objects when there are less than m reports in the highest interval. Any report in the lowest interval has the same positive expected probability of winning an object. The verification rule is chosen so that truthful reporting is an equilibrium. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Ian Levely, Wageningen University";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-16";"10:00";"2019-01-16";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"“Joint Production and Household Bargaining: an experiment with spouses in rural Tanzania” Job Market Seminar Abstract We present evidence that intra-household decision making can lead to inefficient outcomes. Specifically, we show that a spouse's control over the household budget increases with private earnings, but not with the share of earnings from a joint venture. This can prevent couples from working together, even when it is the most efficient option. We test this using a framed eld experiment with married couples in rural Tanzania. In this setting, many farm households exhibit seemingly inefficient behavior, raising multiple crops, each grown primarily by one individual, rather than concentrating household effort on the most profitable crop. In our experiment, spouses were assigned work in a real-effort task, earning vouchers that they spent together. In some treatments, we divided the task into multiple projects. We find that earning more increases bargaining power, but not if that income is earned from a ""joint"" project that involved both spouses. In a related choice experiment, we find that many subjects avoid joint projects, even when doing so is costly, and that these choices are correlated with lower agricultural income. Similar mental accounting could explain inefficient intra-household decision-making in other settings. Contact person: Henrik Hansen"
"Julia Salmi, Aalto University School of Business (Helsinki)";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-17";"10:30";"2019-01-17";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"""Endogenous Learning from Incremental Actions"". Job Market Seminar Abstract We study an experimentation problem where actions today have a long-lasting impact on information generation in the future. Actions are irreversible and generate information gradually over time. We solve for the optimal path of actions when the decision maker does not know the payoff-relevant state of the world. Because current choices have persistent effects, the problem has two state variables: a summary of past actions and the current belief on the state of the world. There is a novel informational trade-off as acting today speeds up information generation but postponing actions results in more informed choices. Our two leading examples cover the monopoly pricing of durable goods with social learning and capacity expansion in a market with uncertain optimal size. We show that since the monopolist can internalize future benefits from learning, the monopolist’s optimal solution may result in a higher social surplus than the competitive market in both examples. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen "
"Saman Darougheh, Institute for International Economic Studies (Stockholm)";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-17";"13:00";"2019-01-17";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"“Specialized Human Capital and Unemployment”. Job Market Seminar Abstract I argue that workers in occupations that are employable in more industries (“broader” occupations) are better insured against industry-specific shocks. Using geographical variation in occupation-level broadness, I show that individuals in broader occupations had higher job-finding rates during the Great Recession. Moreover, the unemployment rates of broad occupations increased less during that period, and the pool of unemployed consisted of more specialists than in other recessions. These facts would lead you to believe that recessions that primarily affect specialized occupations create more misallocation of labor and hence larger unemployment responses. I test this theory in a Lucas (1974) island setting where both intra-island labor markets and inter-island mobility are frictional. In the model, industries propagate productivity shocks to the occupations that they employ. Broad workers respond to productivity shocks to any of their industries by relocating to other industries. They thereby propagate the shock to the broad workers in the remaining industries: The original shock is weakened, but affects more individuals. Specialists are harder hit but respond by switching occupations – and thus offset partly the aggregate unemployment impact of a shock to specialist industries. Therefore, a shock to industries that employ specialist workers leads to a smaller unemployment response. I conclude that the composition of industries and occupations affected during Great Recession was not a key driver of the sharp rise in aggregate unemployment. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro "
"Sebastian Doerr, University of Zurich";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-18";"10:30";"2019-01-19";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job market seminar";"“No Risk, No Growth: The Effects of Stress Testing on Entrepreneurship and Innovation” Abstract This paper shows that post-crisis financial regulation reduces bank credit to young firms and leads to a decline in entrepreneurship and innovation. I provide evidence that banks subject to stress tests strongly cut small businesses lending, in particular lending secured by real estate collateral. Lower credit supply leads to a relative decline in the number and share of entrepreneurs during the recovery in counties with high exposure to stress tested banks, relative to counties with low exposure. Since real estate collateral is an important source of financing for young firms, the decline in entrepreneurship is stronger in sectors with a higher share of firms using home equity financing, i.e. where the reduction in credit hits hardest. Counties with higher exposure also see a decline in innovation: patent applications by young firms fall significantly, but not by old. As young firms contribute disproportionately to aggregate growth, my findings suggest that financial regulation reduces dynamism and innovation in the U.S. and contributes to the post-crisis productivity slowdown. Results are robust to controlling for unobservable local and industry characteristics through granular fixed effects and an instrumental variable approach that predicts county exposure with a gravity model of bank expansion. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Francesc Dilmé, University of Bonn";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-18";"14:00";"2019-01-18";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"""Bargaining and Delay in Thin Markets"" Job Market Seminar Abstract Many markets are thin: they have few traders at any given moment in time. For example, traders in job and housing markets are typically constrained, both by their geographical location and their individual characteristics. In these markets, entry and exit make trading opportunities stochastically change over time, affecting the bargaining position of traders. This paper presents a model of a thin market with endogenous arrival of traders and characterizes the timing and prices of the transactions. Trade delay and price dispersion are found to persist even when buyers and sellers are homogeneous and bargaining frictions are small. Our results underscore that properly incorporating the submarket structure into the study of decentralized markets is necessary in order to correctly assess some properties of their outcomes. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen "
"Quoc-Anh Do Department of Economics, Sciences Po";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen ";"2019-01-21";"10:00";"2019-01-21";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21 ";"Job Market Seminar";"“Friendship Networks and Political Opinions: A Natural Experiment from Future French Politicians” Abstract We study how friendship shapes students' political opinions in a natural experiment. We use the indicator whether two students were exogenously assigned to a short-term ``integration group'', unrelated to scholar activities and dissolved before the school year, as instrumental variable for their friendship, to estimate the effect of friendship on pairwise political opinion outcomes in dyadic regressions. After six months, friendship causes a reduction of differences in opinions by one quarter of the mean difference. It likely works through a homophily-enforced mechanism, by which friendship causes politically-similar students to join political associations together, which reinforces their political similarity. The effect is strong among initially similar pairs, but absent in dissimilar pairs. Friendship affects opinion gaps by reducing divergence, therefore polarization and extremism, without forcing individuals' views to converge. Network characteristics also matter to the friendship effect. Contact person: Jakob Roland Munch"
"Simon Reese, University of Southern California";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen ";"2019-01-21";"11:30";"2019-01-21";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21 ";"Job Market Seminar";"“The Incidental Parameters Problem in Testing for Remaining Cross-section Correlation” Abstract In this paper we consider the properties of the Pesaran (2004, 2015) CD test for cross-section correlation when applied to residuals obtained from panel data models with many estimated parameters. We show that the presence of period-specific parameters leads the CD test statistic to diverge as the length of the time dimension of the sample grows. This result holds even if cross-section dependence is correctly accounted for and hence constitutes an example of the Incidental Parameters Problem. The relevance of this problem is investigated both for the classical Time Fixed Effects estimator as well as the Common Correlated Effects estimator of Pesaran (2006). We discuss approaches for re-establishing standard normal inference under the null hypothesis. Given the widespread use of the CD test statistic to test for remaining cross-section correlation, our results have far reaching implications for empirical researchers. Contact person: Henrik Hansen"
"Kieu-Trang Nguyen, London School of Economics and Political Science";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen ";"2019-01-21";"13:00";"2019-01-21";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21 ";"Job Market Seminar";"“Trust and Innovation within the Firm: Evidence from Matched CEO-Firm Data” Abstract This paper provides evidence on the effect of trust on innovation within firms. I build a new matched CEO-firm-patent dataset covering 5,753 CEOs in 3,598 large US public firms and 700,000 patents during 2000-2011. To identify the effect of CEO's trust, I exploit variation in generalized trust across the countries of CEOs' ancestry, inferred from their last names using deanonymized historical censuses, as well as variation in CEOs' bilateral trust towards inventors. First, one standard deviation increase in CEO's generalized trust following a CEO turnover is associated with over 6% increase in firm's future patents. Second, changes in CEO's bilateral trust towards inventors in different countries (i.e., different R&D labs within multinational firms) or from different ethnic origins in the same firm have comparable effects on inventors' patenting, controlling for CEO and other stringent fixed effects. Trust-induced improvements in innovation are driven entirely by higher-quality patents, consistent with a model in which CEO's trust incentivizes researchers to undertake high-risk explorative R&D. Finally, I show that across and within firms, CEO's generalized trust is strongly correlated with a broader corporate culture of trust, as measured from the text analysis of one million online employee reviews. The evidence provides a micro-foundation for the well-known macro relationship between trust and growth. Contact person: Jakob Roland Munch"
"Valentina Raponi, Imperial College Business School";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-21";"15:00";"2019-01-21";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21 ";"Job Market Seminar";"“Testing Beta-Pricing Models Using Large Cross-Sections” Abstract We propose a methodology for estimating and testing beta-pricing models when a large number of assets is available for investment but the number of time-series observations is fixed. We first consider the case of correctly specified models with constant risk premia, and then extend our framework to deal with time-varying risk premia, potentially misspecified models, firm characteristics, and unbalanced panels. We show that our large cross-sectional framework poses a serious challenge to common empirical findings regarding the validity of beta-pricing models. Firm characteristics are found to explain a much larger proportion of variation in estimated expected returns than betas. Contact person: Anders Rahbek"
"Andreas Uthemann, Systemic Risk Centre at the London School of Economics";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen ";"2019-01-22";"15:00";"2019-01-22";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"“Higher-Order Uncertainty in Financial Markets: Evidence from a Consensus Pricing Service” Abstract We assess the ability of an information aggregation mechanism to reduce valuation uncertainty in an over-the-counter market. The analysis is based on a unique dataset of price estimates for S&P 500 index options that major financial institutions provide to a consensus pricing service. We consider two dimensions of uncertainty: uncertainty about fundamental asset values and strategic uncertainty about competitors' valuations. We estimate a structural model of learning from prices. From this, we obtain empirical measures of fundamental and strategic uncertainty that are based on market participants' posterior beliefs. Both dimensions of valuation uncertainty vary substantially across the different segments of the market. We use the structural model to assess subscribers' welfare under alternative information structures. We show that the main contribution of the service is to reduce subscribers' uncertainty about competitors' valuations rather than uncertainty about asset values themselves. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Rory Mullen, Department of Economics, Washington";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-23";"13:15";"2019-01-23";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"""On Aggregate Fluctuations, Systemic Risk, and the Covariance of Firm-Level Activity"" Job Market Seminar Abstract I study firm-level covariance of productivity, sales, and profit for Compustat firms over the last half-century, in order to understand the sources of aggregate variance and systemic risk for these firms. I find that firm-level covariance explains most of aggregate variance in Compustat, that high-productivity firms covary more with aggregate productivity, sales, and profit growth, but less per dollar of market value. I develop a theory based on diversification of business lines to explain these facts. I derive propositions that characterize endogenous first and second moments of firm and aggregate productivity, and relate firms’ expected stock returns to their endogenous firm-aggregate productivity covariances. As a plausibility check, I run regressions on the number of business segments Compustat firms report and find tentative support for the model’s predictions. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro "
"SODAS Talk";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-01-23";"14:00";"2019-01-23";"15:00";"CSS: Room 1.2.26";"Jobst Heitzig from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research will be presenting at a SODAS Talk Wednesday the 23rd of January 2019.";"Co-evolution of social and natural dynamics in human-environment systems and the copan:CORE World-Earth modelling framework Jobst Heitzig from Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research will be presenting at a SODAS Talk Wednesday the 23rd of January 2019. Abstract Earth's future in the Anthropocene depends on interactions between natural and social dynamics, including opinion dynamics, social norms, behavioural change and coalition formation among heterogeneous agents on social networks. I will present examples of corresponding models and results from PIK's copan project and a general software framework for the modelling of such interactions. The latter, copan:CORE, allows the development, composition and running of so-called World-Earth models, i.e., models of social-ecological co-evolution up to planetary scales. It is an object-oriented software package written in Python designed for different user roles. Model composers are enabled to easily implement new models by plugging together existing model components, such as opinion formation on social networks, generic carbon cycle dynamics, or simple vegetation growth. For the sake of a modular structure, each provided component specifies a meaningful yet minimal collection of closely related processes. These processes can be formulated in terms of various process types, such as ordinary differential equations, explicit or implicit functions, as well as steps or events of deterministic or stochastic fashion. The framework provides elementary entity types such as grid cells, individuals and social systems and fundamental process taxa such as environment, social metabolism, and culture. Ref.: Heitzig*, J, Donges*, JF, Barfuss, W, Kassel, JA, Kittel, T, Kolb, JJ, Kolster, T, Müller-Hansen, F, Otto, IM, Wiedermann, M, Zimmerer, KB, Lucht, W (2018), Earth system modelling with complex dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE World-Earth modelling framework, Earth System Dynamics Discussions, in review (2018), doi:10.5194/esd-2017-126. * The first two authors share the lead authorship. The SODAS Talk will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 2.00 pm- 3.00 pm (notice that we have changed the time to later the same day). If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Jörg Weber, University of Nottingham";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-28";"10:30";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"“How Do Individuals Repay Their Debt? The Balance-Matching Heuristic” Abstract We study how individuals repay their debt using linked data on multiple credit cards. Repayments are not allocated to the higher interest rate card, which would minimize the cost of borrowing. Moreover, the degree of misallocation is invariant to the economic stakes, which is inconsistent with optimization frictions. Instead, we show that repayments are consistent with a balance-matching heuristic under which the share of repayments on each card is matched to the share of balances on each card. Balance matching captures more than half of the predictable variation in repayments and is highly persistent within individuals over time. Contact person: Alexander Christopher Sebald "
"Albert Jan Hummel, Erasmus University Rotterdam";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-28";"13:00";"2019-01-28";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"“Unemployment and Tax Design” Abstract This paper studies the implications of unemployment for the optimal design of the tax-benefit system. To do so, I develop a directed search model where individuals face heterogeneous and uninsurable unemployment risk. They differ in terms of their skills and participation costs and supply labor on the intensive and extensive margin. Matching frictions give rise to a trade-off for workers between high wages and low unemployment risk. The government affects this trade-off by altering the costs and benefits of searching. The associated changes in unemployment generate fiscal externalities which modify optimal tax formulas. How unemployment affects optimal tax policy depends on the elasticity of unemployment with respect to the marginal and average tax rate and on the hazard rate of the income distribution. I show that optimal employment subsidies (such as the EITC) phase in with income. Moreover, financing unemployment benefits through lump-sum or proportional taxes on labor income – as is commonly assumed in the literature – is sub-optimal even in the absence of a motive for redistribution. I calibrate the model to the US economy and find that unemployment is an important margin to consider when setting tax rates at low levels of income. In my preferred calibration, unemployment generates a negative fiscal externality which lowers the mechanical revenue gain of income taxes by 3%. Contact person: Jakob Roland Munch"
"Robert Mahlstedt, Department of Economics, UCPH";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-29";"13:00";"2019-01-29";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21 (Large Seminar Room)";"Job Market Seminar";"“Subjective Expectations, Complexity and the Effectiveness of Public Policy” AbstractUnemployment insurance systems in modern labor markets are riddled with a multitude of rules and regulations governing job seekers’ economic situation and incentives. In this context, subjective expectations play an important for the individual decision-making. The talk presents results from two studies analyzing how biased perceptions about labor market policies can distort individual incentives and long-run labor market outcomes. First, based on a novel combination of German survey and register data, it is shown that participants in human capital intensive training programs who do not anticipate a treatment face substantially lower employment rates than their participating counterparts who expect to participate ex ante. The effect is robust with respect to various sources of unobserved heterogeneity and can be explained by the fact that individuals who do not expect to participate invest too little effort into the preparation of the treatment, e.g. they do not search for the optimal program provider. Second, we conduct a large-scale field experiment in the Danish labor market, in which we exogenously vary individuals’ understanding and perceptions of labor market policies by providing them real-time personalized information about their current UI benefit situation and related job search incentives. We study the causal impact of our intervention on individual job search behavior and subsequent labor market outcomes. Contact person: Jakob Roland Munch "
"Josef Sigurdsson, Institute for International Economic Studies";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-30";"14:15";"2019-01-30";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 35, room 35.3.13";"Job Market Seminar";"Stockholm University “Labor Supply Responses and Adjustment Frictions: A Tax-Free Year in Iceland” Abstract How does labor supply respond to a temporary wage change? To answer this question, I study an unexpected and salient tax reform in Iceland in 1987 that resulted in a year free of labor income taxes, but creating only minimal income effects, offering an ideal natural experiment. I first construct a new employer-employee dataset from digitized administrative records for the population. I then use two complementary research designs to estimate Frisch elasticities. The first design, which is standard, exploits the progressivity of the tax system and identifies an intensive-margin elasticity of 0.4. The second design, which is new, uses similarities in life-patterns of labor supply and identifies an extensive-margin semi-elasticity of 0.07. Guided by a combination of machine learning and causal estimation, I uncover three key mechanisms behind these responses. First, the young and those close to retirement drive the extensive-margin response. Second, workers with temporal flexibility and the hourly paid have substantially higher elasticities than constrained workers. However, constrained workers take up secondary jobs, which contribute 7% of the overall responses. Third, married women are more responsive than their husbands. Husbands, but not wives, respond negatively to their spouses' tax cuts, inconsistent with unitary household models. My results imply that voluntary changes in work are key to the transmission of aggregate shocks, but the responses depend on labor-market and demographic structures. Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner "
"Paolo Falco, OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and development)";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-31";"10:30";"2019-01-31";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Marked Seminar";"“Do employers trust workers too little? An experimental study of trust in the labour market” Abstract We conduct a field experiment to investigate employers’ trust in workers. A sample of real entrepreneurs and workers from urban Ghana are respectively assigned to the roles of employers and employees in the experiment. Employers have the option to hire (trust) an employee, who can in turn choose whether to exert effort (trustworthiness) in a real-effort task with monetary payoffs. We elicit employers and employees’ expectations about each other’s choices and randomly provide information on previous behaviour. We find that employers significantly underestimate workers’ effort. This reduces hiring and profits. We also find that expectations respond to negative signals, but are inelastic with respect to positive news. Finally, we find that experimental behaviour relates directly to real-life choices: employers who hire less in their businesses have more pessimistic expectations and are less likely to trust in the experiment. Our evidence corroborates the hypothesis that an equilibrium with no experimentation and biased beliefs may be self-sustaining. Contact person: Henrik Hansen "
"Dmitry Kuvshinov, University of Bonn";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-01-31";"13:00";"2019-01-31";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"“The Time Varying Risk Puzzle” Abstract This paper shows that the correlation between discount rates on three major risky asset classes – equity, housing and corporate bonds – is approximately zero. I establish this new stylised fact – the time varying risk puzzle – by using new long-run data for 17 advanced economies. I confirm that asset valuations and macro-financial risk factors predict returns on individual asset classes, but I show that none of these variables have predictive power across asset classes. The absence of observed discount rate co-movement is puzzling since all but a very select set of asset pricing models assume a joint pricing kernel and hence predict a high correlation of risk premia. My findings imply that variation in discount rates – through factors such as risk aversion, disaster risk and intermediary risk appetite – is, ultimately, not the key driver of observed asset price volatility. The absence of co-movement is not fully attributable to asset-specific risk, investor heterogeneity or market segmentation. Instead, the data point to volatile expectations as the central source of asset price volatility, in line with behavioural models. The observed expectation volatility has real economic effects on a business cycle frequency. Elevated sentiment – or overoptimistic expectations – predict low future GDP growth, and sentiment reversals often mark the onset of financial crises. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro "
"Tomasz Sulka, The University of Edinburgh";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-02-01";"10:30";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"“Savings Contracts for Naive Agents” Abstract Recent pension reforms in OECD countries endow individuals with more responsibility for their financial security in retirement, raising concerns about their ability to select appropriate pension arrangements and save adequately. This paper analyses the interaction between a present-biased individual and a financial provider in order to examine the properties of equilibrium savings contracts and the impact of common policy interventions. Using a tractable model, I find that naïve present-biased agents are offered exploitative contracts that are either ‘inefficiently cheap' (low-yield, low-fee) or ‘inefficiently expensive' (high-yield, high-fee), depending on whether the income or the substitution effect of an interest rate change dominates in the agent's utility function. Subsequently, I embed the interaction with a pension provider in a numerical life-cycle framework with hyperbolic discounting. Under the benchmark calibration, the equilibrium contract is Pareto inefficient, lowers the agent's wealth at retirement by 10%, and generates a small, but non-trivial loss of consumer welfare of 0.17% per annum. Contact person: Alexander Christopher Sebald "
"Katharina Bergant, Trinity College Dublin";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-02-01";"13:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"“Valuation Effects and Capital Flows: Security Level Evidence from Euro Area Investors” Abstract We use confidential microdata on security holdings of all euro area investors to analyze portfolio rebalancing patterns in response to valuation changes. Our empirical findings provide evidence for “momentum investment” as investors show larger net purchases of securities which experience relatively higher valuation gains. This pattern is stronger for institutional investors (banks, investment funds, and insurance companies and pension funds) than for households or non-financial corporations and particularly pronounced in euro area countries less affected by the recent financial crisis. For securities denominated in foreign currency (i.e. non-euro), momentum investment is significantly stronger and driven by valuation gains from exchange rate dynamics rather than changes in market prices. Our analysis is consistent with a decreasing share of home currency holdings in euro area investors' portfolios, albeit from high levels, driven by rebalancing towards the US dollar and other foreign currencies over the past five years. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Jiatong Zhong, Purdue University";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-02-04";"15:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21";"Job Market Seminar";"Job Market Seminar"
"Egor Starkov, Northwestern University";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-02-07";"14:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"Job Market Seminar";"“Bad News Turned Good: Reversal Under Censorship” Abstract Sellers often have the power to censor the reviews of their products. We explore the effect of these censorship policies in markets where some consumers are unaware of possible censorship. We find that if the share of such “naive” consumers is not too large, then rational consumers treat any bad review that is revealed in equilibrium as good news about product quality. This makes bad reviews worth revealing and allows the seller to use them as a costly signal of his product’s quality to rational consumers. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"SODAS Data Discussion, Kristoffer Pade Glavind & Kristoffer Albris";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, (SODAS)";"2019-02-08";"11:00";"2019-02-08";"12:00";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing the success with SODAS Data Discussions this spring.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing the success with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Kristoffer Pade Glavind and Kristoffer Albris will present at this springs first SODAS Data Discussion the 8th of February. Kristoffer Pade Glavind: Are smartphone contagious? How smartphone use spreads in social settings AbstractSmartphone use have been shown to correlate with chronic stress, emotional instability and depression- Still we know surprisingly little about what influences the use of smartphones. Using data from The Copenhagen Network Study and administrative data from Statistics Denmark, we wish to examine how one person’s smartphone use determine the smartphone use of his/her surroundings. To identify the causal effect, we will use a research design with exogenous variance from the reception of text messages from outside sources. Also working on the project is Andreas-Bjerre Nielsen and Asger Andersen. Kristoffer Albris: Ambivalent Intermediaries: The Role of Data Protection Officers in Denmark Abstract With the acceleration towards a data-driven market economy and public sector, private companies and public institutions are changing their organizational setups to incorporate mechanisms for managing and governing data. While having employees that oversee the acquisition, storage and application of data is by no means new, the recent introduction of both national and international legislation (i.e. GDPR), has obligated companies, organizations and institutions – public as well as private – to appoint or hire Data Protection Officers (DPOs). This paper presents the research design and the very first research results of a project examining the introduction of Data Protection Officers in different contexts and domains in Denmark, with the aim of understanding what this new role means for the practical implementation of data ethical standards and mechanisms within companies, organizations and institutions. As such, the project aims at understanding the politics of data ethics in the Denmark, by honing in specifically on the role of DPOs as intermediaries between those that supply the data (citizens/users) and those that manage and benefit from that data (companies/organizations/institutions). The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Carlos Cueva, University of Alicante";"Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) .";"2019-02-19";"10:30";"2019-02-19";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.121B";"“Cognitive dissonance and investor beliefs: An experiment” MRU-seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Cognitive dissonance and investor beliefs: An experiment” Abstract Cognitive dissonance theory proposes that individuals tend to manipulate their beliefs when these might otherwise conflict with their self-image. Despite its recent popularity in behavioral finance as a unified explanation for important puzzles such as the disposition effect, little is known about the effect of cognitive dissonance on beliefs. In this experiment, subjects participate in an investment task and provide price forecasts under various conditions which should turn on or off cognitive dissonance. In line with the theory, our results show that beliefs are unresponsive to negative signals only for assets that have been personally purchased by subjects, while in other circumstances they are consistent with Bayesian updating.Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf"
"Engagement and Diversity in the World of Data Science";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science";"2019-02-22";"11:00";"2019-02-22";"12:30";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"The first SODAS Lecture of the spring will be by Roberta Sinatra, Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Science, IT University Copenhagen. ";"While data science has without a doubt proven its enormous potential over the last decade or so, the new field is still trying to find its place in academia and society at large. In the 2019 spring lecture series, The Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) has invited scholars that will present their work that in one aspect or another address questions of, and experiments with, diversity and public engagement in the world of data science. Quantifying Performance and Success in Science and Art Our first speaker of the spring lecture series is Roberta Sinatra, Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Science, IT University Copenhagen. Abstract Performance, representing the objectively measurable achievements in a certain domain of activity, like the publication record of a scientist or the winning record of an athlete, captures the actions of an individual entity. In contrast, success, captured by impact or visibility, is a collective measure, representing a community’s reaction and acceptance of an individual entity’s performance. We are often driven by the belief that the detection of extraordinary performance is sufficient to predict exceptional success. However, the link between these two measures, while often taken for granted, is actually far from being understood. Indeed, even experts of performance assessment are notoriously bad at predicting long-term success. Nevertheless, differently from performance, success is quantifiable and predictable: given its collective nature, its signatures can be uncovered from the many pieces of data around us using the tools of network and data science. In this talk I will focus on success in science and art as a way to testing our ability to measure and predict success. I will discuss the role of luck in achieving success, and will address the relation between performance and success in a variety of settings, highlighting the challenges of gauging performance through success. The lecture will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Marta Troya Martinez, New Economic School (Moscow)";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2019-02-26";"10:30";"2019-02-26";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""Managing Relational Contracts"". Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen";"""Managing Relational Contracts"" Abstract Relational contracts are typically modeled as being between a principal and an agent, such as a firm owner and a supplier. Yet in a variety of organizations relationships are overseen by an intermediary such as a manager. Such arrangements open the door for collusion between the manager and the agent. This paper develops a theory of such managed relational contracts. We show that managed relational contracts differ from principal-agent ones in important ways. First, kickbacks from the agent can help solve the manager's commitment problem. When commitment is difficult, this can result in higher agent effort than the principal could incentivize directly. Second, making relationships more valuable enables more collusion and hence can reduce effort. We also analyze the principal's delegation problem and show that she may or may not benefit from entrusting the relationship to a manager. "
"Nick Fabrin Nielsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-03-04";"15:30";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26. 26.2.21";"Nick Fabrin Nielsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Empirical essays at the intersection of economics, health, and education"" ";"Nick Fabrin Nielsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Empirical essays at the intersection of economics, health, and education"" Kandidat: Fabrin Nielsen Titel “Empirical essays at the intersection of economics, health, and education” .. Tid og sted 4. marts 2019 kl. 15:30, Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Mette Gørtz, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Denmark (formand)Professor Maarten Lindeboom, Vrije University Amsterdam, The NetherlandsReader Annette Bergemann, Bristol University, United Kingdom Abstract This thesis consists of 4 self-contained chapters with topics at the intersection of economics, health and education. Each individual chapter presents a specific empirical investigation into one or more of the following broad category of questions: How does health influence the economic possibilities of individuals? How does economic circumstance and choice affect health of individuals? How does the childhood environment shape the (economic) future of children? The chapters are: Association of Type 1 Diabetes With Standardized Test Scores of Danish Schoolchildren Socioeconomic Inequality in metabolic control among children with type 1 diabetes: a nationwide longitudinal study of 4,079 Danish children Sick of Retirement? Differential Effects of the Timing of Divorce on Children’s outcomes: Evidence from Denmark Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut "
"Erez Yoeli, MIT&#8217;s Sloan School of Management";"Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"2019-03-05";"10:30";"2019-03-05";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""A game theoretic explanation for spin and motivated reasoning"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"""A game theoretic explanation for spin and motivated reasoning"" Abstract ""Spin"" is ubiquitous in private, professional, and political life. Why does spin persist even though others anticipate it and adjust accordingly? What features is spin liable to have? Under what conditions are people likely to spin? Building on game theory insights, we present three stylized models, in which a sender, whose payoffs are increasing in receiver's beliefs, privately chooses what evidence to convey, how extensively to search, and which tests to run. In equilibrium, the sender only searches for and reveals evidence that increases receiver's posteriors (`supportive evidence') and runs `confirmatory' tests that maximize the likelihood of supportive evidence, regardless of the truth. Presuming senders internalize the highest beliefs consistent with presented evidence, senders also exhibit well-documented but unexplained features of motivated reasoning. Contact person: Christina Gravert "
"SODAS Data Discussion, Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall & Nete Schwennesen";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, (SODAS)";"2019-03-08";"11:00";"2019-03-08";"12:00";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce the second SODAS Data Discussion of this spring.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing the success with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall, Senior Researcher at Kraks Fond, and Nete Schwennesen, Associate Professor, Department of Anthropology and Center for Healthy Ageing, will present at the second SODAS Data Discussion of this spring the 8th of March. Cecilie Dohlmann Weatherall:The non-Western Immigrant Concentration in a Neighbourhood Affect Mental Health: Evidence from a quasi-random allocation of applicants in the public social housing system AbstractSocial interaction among neighbours influences residents’ employability and criminal behaviour, in particular among male non-Western immigrants. In this paper we look at whether high concentration of non-Western immigrants in a neighbourhood influences non-Western residents’ mental health. The combination of manual data collection from the public social housing system and administrative registry panel data gives us the opportunity to examine the causal impact of non-Western immigrants’ concentration on mental health. Our results from a quasi-random allocation of households into different neighbourhoods suggest that being allocated to a neighbourhood with a higher concentration of Non-Western immigrants has a significant and negative impact on mental health for non-Western immigrants. The effect is mainly among men. In particular, there is a significant and large effect on mental health from the concentration of immigrants from the residents’ own language group. Nete Schwennesen:When the physiotherapist goes digital: Algorithmic authority in the making AbstractAs human life becomes increasingly entangled with digital technologies, algorithmic systems are becoming a significant part of everyday life. The delegation of tasks to algorithms and their ability to make decisions without (or with little) human intervention has been characterised as a process of algorithmic authority, where algorithms increasingly shape ‘who we are and what we see’. This paper engage with the concept of algorithmic authority by way of analysing the affective and material processes through which algorithmic authority is created, negotiated and sometimes broken down. The study is based on an ethnographic exploration of the implementation of a smart phone application (ICURA) for the promotion of home-training for patients who have undergone hip replacement surgery in Denmark, and explores what happens when algorithms are designed to take on tasks in the arena of physical rehabilitation. I conclude by arguing, that the tendency among scholars to center on algorithms as the main actor producing authority, may overlook the dynamic material and affectual relations involved in the process of producing and maintaining algorithmic authority over time. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Martin Gonzalez-Eiras, University of Copenhagen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-03-12";"13:30";"2019-03-12";"14:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21.B";"”Cooperation and Retaliation in Legislative Bargaining” Seminar arranged by MRU";"”Cooperation and Retaliation in Legislative Bargaining” Abstract We study a legislative-bargaining divide-the-pie game in which some legislators have the ability to affect the amount of resources to be distributed (positively or negatively). If included in the winning coalition, these legislators cooperate and increase the size of the pie. If excluded, they retaliate and decrease it. Cooperation and retaliation produce significant changes in the equilibrium allocation relative to Baron and Ferejohn (1989). In particular, we find that, i) cooperating and retaliating districts are more likely to be included in the winning coalition, ii) the equilibrium might feature larger-than-minimum winning coalitions, and iii) there exist equilibria with inefficient output losses. Download paper Contact person: Nick Vikander"
"Benjamin Ly Serena forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-03-13";"14:00";"";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS 7.0.34 ";"Benjamin Ly Serena forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays in Health Economics: Measurement and Policy""";"Benjamin Ly Serena forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays in Health Economics: Measurement and Policy"" Kandidat: Benjamin Ly Serena Titel “Essays in Health Economics: Measurement and Policy"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 13. marts 2019 kl. 14:00, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 7, lokale 7.0.34. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Mette Gørtz, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Peter Nilsson, IIES, Stockholm Universitet, SverigeLektor Meltem Daysal, Syddansk Universitet, Danmark Abstract This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters within Health Economics. The first chapter concerns the measurement of inequality in life expectancy across income classes. We show that standard methods overestimate the degree of inequality by imposing an assumption of no income mobility. We develop and validate a new method to account for income mobility in these estimations. Using Danish administrative data on mortality and income over three decades, we show that both the level and the trend in inequality in life expectancy are half as big, when accounting for income mobility. In the second chapter, I study the cognitive consequences of iodine deficiency in adolescence and the efficacy of iodized salt policies, a widely used public health policy to eradicate iodine deficiency. I find that the introduction of iodized salt in Denmark during 1998-2001 increased the average GPA of high school students by 6-9 percent of a standard deviation. While these effects are modest in size, they come at very low costs, suggesting that improving student nutrition is a low-hanging fruit among policies designed to increase student achievement. In the third and last chapter, I estimate the effects of health insurance coverage for psychotherapy on the use of other mental health services and mental health. Using a recent reform of the Danish public health insurance, I show that psychotherapy coverage reduces the use of outpatient psychiatric hospital treatment by eight percent, and that the savings in the hospital sector offset 30 percent of the cost of psychotherapy coverage. I also find a 20 percent reduction in the incidence of suicide attempts, suggesting that psychotherapy coverage has a large positive effect on mental health."
"UCPH Workshop: Behavioral Economics and Public Policy";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-03-15";"09:15";"2019-03-16";"14:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"";" UCPH Workshop on Behavioral Economics and Public Policy 15-16 March 2019 arrangered by the Center for Behavioral Economics and Labor Market Performance. Programme for UCPH Workshop on Behavioral Economics and Public Polixy "
"Andreas Gotfredsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-03-21";"13:00";"";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 35, lokale 35.3.12";"Andreas Gotfredsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays in Behavioral and Experimental Economics""";"Andreas Gotfredsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays in Behavioral and Experimental Economics"" Kandidat Andreas Gotfredsen Titel ""Essays in Behavioral and Experimental Economics"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 21. marts 2019 kl. 13:00, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 35, lokale 35.3.12. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Marco Piovesan, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Lektor Erik Wengström, Lund Universitet, SverigeLektor Sibilla di Guida, Syddansk Universitet, Danmark Abstract The four chapters of this thesis contribute to two distinct topics in behavioral and experimental economics. Each chapter is self-contained and can be read independently. The first three chapters studies how the psychological mechanisms of attention and limited cognitive resources affect individual economic choice and market outcomes. The final chapter studies the economic consequences of overconfidence. In chapter 1, we present results from an eye-tracking experiment, where we demonstrate that consumers' choices are tilted toward purchasing goods with higher quality/price ratios, as predicted by salience theory of Bordalo et al. (2013). Still, the eye-tracking data indicate that this behavior may not be driven by visual attention as hypothesized. In chapter 2, we present another experiment demonstrating that people's perceptual limitations cause their valuations of experimental goods to become more similar as they become harder to visually distinguish. Yet we do not see sellers attempt to exploit this in a market setting. In chapter 3, I examine how order effects influence the way that people retrospectively self-evaluate their performance on a work task. For the task I use in my experiment, I find that the participants tend to overweight the final, most salient part in their self-evaluations. The final chapter deals with overconfidence: The tendency for people to overestimate their abilities, blamed for over-investment, excess entry into markets and wars. In my final experiment, I study the link between overconfidence and aggressive behavior, and the economic consequences thereof. I find that people who publicly appear the most self-confident are also the most aggressive towards their competitors, and that the threat of aggression deter others from choosing to compete."
"Engagement and Diversity in the World of Data Science";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, (SODAS)";"2019-03-22";"11:00";"2019-03-22";"12:30";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"The second SODAS Lecture of the spring will be by Natalie Schluter, Associate Professor and Head of study program at the Department of Computer Science, IT University Copenhagen.";"While data science has without a doubt proven its enormous potential over the last decade or so, the new field is still trying to find its place in academia and society at large. In the 2019 spring lecture series, The Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) has invited scholars that will present their work that in one aspect or another address questions of, and experiments with, diversity and public engagement in the world of data science. The Glass Ceiling in the Natural Language Processing Research Community Our second speaker of the spring lecture series is Natalie Schluter, Associate Professor and Head of study program at the Department of Computer Science, IT University Copenhagen. AbstractIn this talk, I present some empirical evidence based on a rigorously studied mathematical model for bi-populated networks, that a glass ceiling within the field of Natural Language Processing has developed since the mid 2000s. The lecture will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Raffaele Rossi, University of Manchester";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-03-28";"13:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates from a Life Cycle Model"" Macroeconomics seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates from a Life Cycle Model"" Abstract This paper estimates the effects of exogenous changes in income and consumption taxes. The tax shocks are proxied with a narrative account of tax liability changes in the United Kingdom. Income tax cuts have large effects on GDP, private consumption and investment. The effects of consumption tax cuts are modest and not statistically significant on GDP and its components. Shifting the burden of taxation from income to consumption is expansionary. Consistent with conventional public finance theories, these results indicate that it is crucial to distinguish between direct and indirect taxation when studying the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy.Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Adam Sheridan forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-03-29";"14:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 ";"Adam Sheridan forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Banks, Insurance, and Social Networks""";"Adam Sheridan forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Banks, Insurance, and Social Networks"" Kandidat: Adam Sheridan Titel ""Essays on Banks, Insurance, and Social Networks"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 29. marts 2019 kl. 14:00, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor David Dreyer Lassen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Seniorforsker Andreas Fagereng, Statistics Norge, NorgeLektor Kaveh Majlesi, Lund Universitet, Sverige, Abstract This thesis consists of four self-contained chapters. In the first chapter, written together with Rajkamal Iyer, Thais Jensen, and Niels Johannesen, we provide empirical evidence of the distortive effects of too-big-to-fail guarantees on bank competition for retail deposits. In the second chapter, written together with Asger Lau Andersen, Amalie Sofie Jensen, Niels Johannesen, Claus Thustrup Kreiner, and Søren Leth-Petersen, we provide precise and comprehensive evidence on how households respond to unemployment shocks by linking multiple high-frequency administrative data sets from government agencies, covering the entire Danish population, with transaction-level data from a major bank. In the third chapter, written together with Asger Lau Andersen, and Niels Johannesen, we combine transaction-level customer records from a large retail bank with government registers in order to construct a unique dataset with high-frequency information on income, spending, and intra-family bank transfers and we use these data to produce new evidence on intra-family insurance. In the fourth and final chapter, I demonstrate how the increasing popularity of mobile money transfer apps is generating population-scale data on real world social interactions, presenting researchers with an opportunity to better comprehend social networks and their role in social and economic behavior. "
"Johan Lagerlöf, University of Copenhagen";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-04-02";"10:30";"2019-04-02";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"“Surfing Incognito: Welfare Effects of Anonymous Shopping” Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"“Surfing Incognito: Welfare Effects of Anonymous Shopping” Abstract This paper studies consumers' incentives to hide their purchase histories when the seller's prices depend on previous behavior. Through distinct channels, hiding both hinders and facilitates trade. Indeed, the social optimum involves hiding to some extent, yet not fully. Two opposing effects determine whether a consumer hides too much or too little: the first-period social gains are only partially internalized, and there is a private (socially irrelevant) second-period gain due to price differences. If time discounting is small, the second effect dominates and there is socially excessive hiding. This result is reversed if discounting is large. Paper Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf "
"Joseph Vavra, Booth School of Business at University of Chicago and NBER";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-04-08";"13:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"""Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy"", Macroeconomics seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy"" Abstract How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rate paths will generate substantial headwinds for future monetary stimulus Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Lenka Fiala, Tilburg University";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2019-04-09";"10:30";"2019-04-09";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"""Using Experimental Evidence to Design Optimal Notice and Takedown Process"" Abstract Whether it is copyright infringement or hate speech, Internet intermediaries like Facebook, Twitter or YouTube are expected to enforce the law by removing illegal content. The legal scheme under which a lot of such delegated enforcement takes place is often referred to as notice & takedown. According to theory and empirical evidence, this scheme leads to many false positives due to over-notification by concerned parties, over-compliance by providers, and under-assertion of rights by affected content creators. We re-create these problems in a laboratory and then test a mechanism to address two of them: the over-compliance by providers, and the lack of complaints by the content creators. We show that our proposed solution of an independent ADR mechanism significantly reduces over-compliance by providers. At the same time, it increases complaints by the content creators who are successful in their complaints, but primarily in cases in which it is easier to evaluate who is right. Paper Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf"
"Christofer Schroeder, Stockholm School of Economics";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-04-11";"13:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""TBA"" Macroeconomics seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"""TBA"" Contact person. Søren Hove Ravn"
"SODAS Data Discussion, Maja Hojer Bruun & Adam Sheridan";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, (SODAS)";"2019-04-12";"11:00";"2019-04-12";"12:00";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce the third SODAS Data Discussion of this spring.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing the success with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Maja Hojer Bruun, Associate Professor in Educational Anthropology, Aarhus University & Adam Sheridan, PhD student, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen and Danske Bank, will present at the third SODAS Data Discussion of this spring the 12th of April. Maja Hojer Bruun:Infrastructures of trust and distrust. Anthropological perspectives on emerging cryptographic technologies Cryptography is a field of mathematics and computer science that works on ways of protecting information by hiding it through codes and computer protocols. The spread of personal computers since the 1970s and the development of the Internet has extended the use of cryptography from governments and military to the whole world, and encryption has become a matter of not only data security but also data privacy. Today, cryptography is not only used by states and the military but also for computer passwords, electronic commerce and payment cards and all kinds of digital signatures and identity authentication. Moreover, cryptography but also extends into subcultures and underground activities such as the political activities of hackers, the Dark Net and Tor (The Onion Router). Thus, cryptography is part of a ubiquitous, yet invisible infrastructure that we use every day but very few of us understand.This paper presents the work of mathematicians, engineers and anthropologists from Aalborg and Aarhus University in the SECURE project (Secure Estimation and Control Using Recursion and Encryption) with the emerging encryption and computation technology Multi-Party Computation (MPC). Unlike traditional forms of encryption that require a trusted third party, MPC enables decentralised data analysis where several parties jointly compute a function without revealing the inputs of each party to anyone. In this way, the boundaries between trust and distrust, public and private are being reconfigured. As part of the SECURE project’s aim to make MPC graspable for the broader public, and to cultivate public consciousness and political debate about data technologies, security and infrastructures, we have developed a prototype virtual reality experience of current and emerging forms of encryption using the smart grid as a case. Adam Sheridan:Learning About Social Networks from Mobile Money Transfers The increasing popularity of mobile money transfer apps is generating population-scale data on real-world social interactions. I demonstrate how data from these apps presents researchers with an opportunity to better comprehend social networks and their role in social and economic behavior. To this end, I construct a population-scale social network from the near universe of mobile money transfers in Denmark. I detail the network’s distinct structural properties and their accordance with those of known social networks. Combining the network with population-wide individual-level data on socio-economic attributes and institutional attachments, I provide novel insights on four key questions concerning social networks. First, the life cycle evolution of social ties with changing institutional attachments. Second, the individual and economic correlates of immigrant social segregation and integration. Third, the extent of social network stratification by economic status. Fourth, the contagious effects of job loss on household expenditure through social interactions. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Erik Mohlin, Lund and Stockholm School of Economics";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2019-04-23";"10:30";"2019-04-23";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"""Decency"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) .";"""Decency"" Abstract We develop a formal theory of decency. Shared values and understandings give rise to social norms. Norms may mandate collectively optimal behavior, but they need not do so. Furthermore, behavior can be affected by social values even if it stops short of norm compliance. Seeking stronger predictions, we propose a structural model of social values; society endorses efficiency and equality, but condemns ill-gotten gains. The model implies that decent people will tend to avoid situations that encourage prosocial behavior. It also rationalizes the existence of willful ignorance, intention-based negative reciprocity, and betrayal aversion. Co-author: Tore Ellingsen Paper Contact person: Johan Lagerlôf "
"Use of Algorithms in Public Administration - What are the Ethical Concerns?";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, (SODAS)";"2019-04-26";"11:00";"2019-04-26";"12:30";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"The speakers for the third SODAS Lecture of the spring will be Peter Sandøe, Professor & Sune Hannibal Holm, Associate Professor, Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen. ";"Engagement and Diversity in the World of Data Science While data science has without a doubt proven its enormous potential over the last decade or so, the new field is still trying to find its place in academia and society at large. In the 2019 spring lecture series, The Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) has invited scholars that will present their work that in one aspect or another address questions of, and experiments with, diversity and public engagement in the world of data science. Use of Algorithms in Public Administration - What are the Ethical Concerns? The speakers for the third SODAS Lecture of the spring will be Peter Sandøe, Professor & Sune Hannibal Holm, Associate Professor, Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen. Abstract Automated and decision-supporting algorithmic systems are finding their way into public administration. These hold great promises e.g. in terms of more effective administration throughout the public sector. On the other hand, there is a worry we are sleepwalking into an era of algocratic rule, which will erode fundamental liberal rights and values.In this talk we will present some preliminary suggestions for an ethical framework for algorithmic governance. More specifically we will analyse how concerns concerning privacy, transparency and responsibility can best be interpreted and respected in a society, where there is an accelerating increase in the collection, processing and utilization of personal data to make decisions that affect the lives of citizens.In the course of analyzing the three notions and outlining the framework we will also consider the following questions: “Should public institutions use personal data to develop predictive algorithms that may be applied in automated or semi-automated decisions-making processes about individual citizens?”, “Should citizens be subjected to algorithmic profiling?”, and “Are algorithmic decision-making systems really so bad when compared to our knowledge about the quality of unassisted human decisions”? The lecture will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Jakub Steiner, CERGE-EI (Prague) and Zurich";"Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"2019-04-30";"10:30    ";"2019-04-30";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""Attention Please!"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) . Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen";"""Attention Please!"" Abstract: We study the impact of manipulating the attention of a decision-maker who learns sequentially about a number of items before making a choice. Under natural assumptions on the decision-maker’s strategy, directing attention toward one item increases its likelihood of being chosen regardless of its value. This result applies when the decision-maker can reject all items in favor of an outside option with known value; if no outside option is available, the direction of the effect of manipulation depends on the value of the item.Link to paper: https://home.cerge-ei.cz/steiner/please.pdf. "
"SODAS Data Discussion, Frederik Georg Hjorth & Snorre Ralund";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, (SODAS)";"2019-05-10";"11:00";"2019-05-10";"12:00";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce the fourth and final SODAS Data Discussion of this spring.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing the success with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Frederik Georg Hjorth, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, and Snorre Ralund, PhD student at SODAS, will present at the fouth and final SODAS Data Discussion of this spring the 10th of May. Frederik George Hjorth:Establishment Responses to Populist Challenges: Evidence from Legislative Speech In recent years, many political systems have witnessed the rise of right-wing populist parties, sometimes challenging foundational norms of the established political system. In the face of such challenges, establishment actors face the important choice of how to respond to the challenger party. A rich literature in comparative party politics examines this question. Though typologies abound, the literature broadly speaking identifies two types of response: either engaging with the challenger on par with other parties, or employ a strategy of disparagement, i.e. seeking to portray the challenger as democratically illegitimate. However, the existing literature conceptualizes this response solely as a party system- or party-level phenomenon.This paper argues that legislative speech, previously unexamined in the literature, offers a window into individual-level variation in establishment responses to right-wing populist challenges. I revisit an oft-studied case in the literature, responses in the Danish party system to the entry of the right-wing populist Danish People's Party in the mid-1990's. I take a text as data approach, applying machine learning methods to a total of around 130,000 paragraphs of legislative speech in order to characterize responses at the level of individual speeches. I link these speech-level estimates to an original data set on political and demographic characteristics of individual legislators.Using this novel approach, which allows for a uniquely granular characterization of responses to right-wing populist parties, I uncover systematic individual-level, within-party variation in legislators' choice of an engagement or a disparagement response to the entry of the Danish People's Party. The results suggest that political and demographic characteristics of individual legislators, unexamined in the existing literature, play an important role in explaining establishment responses to populist challenges. Snorre Ralund:When models don’t speak data: Resolution limit in topic modelling Topic modelling is a statistical method for the analysis of high-dimensional sparse data widely used across many scientific fields. Application range from automated text classification, recommendation systems, dimensionality reduction, topic-based search engines, and has become the de facto standard for modelling text within the social sciences.Although widely used in both research and industry for many years, we still lack an understanding of potentially critical behavior of the algorithm under different empirical scenarios. A growing number of studies document critical behavior such as high level of multimodality and instability, but it has only recently been proposed to systematically study the behavior of the algorithm using well-designed synthetic data (Shi et al. 2019).The model is praised for the ability to model linguistic phenomenon such as polysemy (words carry different meaning given context), heteroglossia (documents contain different voices and themes), and compared to its supervised counterparts in automated content analysis, for its data-driven and inductive qualities. In this paper, we use synthetic data to test the algorithms ability to let the data to drive the results. We show resolution limits and problems with inference related to both the local concentration (document-level), global prevalence (corpus level), separability (word overlap) of the latent topics, and word overlap, with critical consequences for real world scenarios. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Filip Matejka, CERGE, Charles University";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"2019-05-13";"10:30";"2019-05-13";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"""An Attention-Based Theory of Mental Accounting"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"""An Attention-Based Theory of Mental Accounting"". Botond Köszegi and Filip Matejka Abstract We analyze how an agent with costly attention optimally attends and responds to shocks in basic consumption decisions, explaining several types of mental accounting, and making additional predictions. When allocating consumption among goods with different degrees of substitutability, the agent may create budgets for the more substitutable products. But if the goods are complements, the agent — consistent with naive diversification — may choose a fixed, unconsidered mix of products. When managing her consumption from and transfers between an investment account and a checking account, the latter of which she has an incentive to balance, the agent’s marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of shocks to the checking account is greater than her MPC out of shocks to the investment account. Furthermore, because paying attention to her budgeting is costly, the agent prefers to reduce spending risk, and she is more averse to risk in the checking account than in the investment account. As a result, she may optimally switch to a cheaper substitute product when a random price increase occurs. Information about Filip MatejkaContact person: Mogens Fosgerau"
"Thomas Rasmusen Tørsløv forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-05-16";"15:45";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 ";"Thomas Rasmusen Tørsløv forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""International Corporate Taxation - the result of trying to curb strong economic incentives with unclear rules""";"Thomas Rasmusen Tørsløv forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""International Corporate Taxation - the result of trying to curb strong economic incentives with unclear rules"" Kandidat: Thomas Rasmusen Tørsløv Titel ""International Corporate Taxation - The result of trying to curb strong economic incentives with unclear rules"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 16. maj 2019 kl. 15:45, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Peter Birch Sørensen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Annette Alstadsæter, Handelshøyskolen, NorgeProfessor Ronald Davies, University College Dublin, Irland Abstract The dissertation revolves around the topic of tax avoidance by multinational corporations. It consists of three self-contained chapters: In the first chapter my co-authors and I investigate whether countries at a lower state of development experience a higher exposure to profit shifting by MNCs. In doing so we provide a new framework for estimating profit shifting: Estimating the change in propensity for MNCs to report zero profits following a change in tax incentives. In the second chapter we try to answer the question: ""What amount of profits are shifted to tax havens worldwide?"". To answer this, we exploit new macroeconomic data known as foreign affiliates statistics. We show that foreign firms are an order of magnitude more profitable than local firms in tax havens, but less profitable than local firms in other countries. Leveraging this differential profitability, we estimate the amount of multinational profits that are shifted to tax havens globally each year . In the third chapter, we zoom out and look at the effect profit shifting has on the effective tax rates paid by MNCs. By systematically decomposing the effective tax rates of U.S.- and EU-based MNCs, we show that profit shifting can only explain at most a quarter of the fall in effective tax rates paid since 2004. The remainder is explained by falling statutory and effective tax rates across the globe. These results are consistent with international tax competition. "
"Philipp Christian Kless forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-05-20";"10:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 ";"Philipp Christian Kless forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""New Bootstrap Methods for Financial and Economic Time Series""";"Philipp Christian Kless forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""New Bootstrap Methods for Financial and Economic Time Series"" Kandidat: Philipp Christian Kless Titel ""New Bootstrap Methods for Financial and Economic Time Series"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 20. maj 2019 kl. 10:00, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Heino Bohn Nielsen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Esther Ruíz Ortega, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, SpanienProfessor Giuseppe Cavaliere, University of Bologna, Italien Abstract The bootstrap is a promising simulation tool that can help to solve complicated statistical problems with no tractable solution. Specifically, the fundamental idea of the bootstrap is to use re-sampling methods to approximate otherwise unknown properties of an estimator. This thesis investigates bootstrap methods for financial and economic time series to do forecasting. The results are presented in three self-contained parts which include theory, simulations, and empirics for the implemented bootstrap method. The three parts are: Smoothed Bootstrap Forecasts for Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Models Bootstrap Forecasts for the Poisson Autogressive Model Estimation Uncertainty in GARCH Option Prices "
"ScienceAtHome: Online Computer Games as a &#8221;Social Science Super Collider&#8221;";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science, (SODAS)";"2019-05-24";"11:00";"2019-05-24";"12:30";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"The final SODAS Lecture of the spring will be by Professor MSO Jacob Friis Sherson, Director and Founder of the ScienceAtHome project and Center for Hybrid Intelligence at the Department of Physic and Astronomy, Aarhus University.";"Engagement and Diversity in the World of Data Science While data science has without a doubt proven its enormous potential over the last decade or so, the new field is still trying to find its place in academia and society at large. In the 2019 spring lecture series, The Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) has invited scholars that will present their work that in one aspect or another address questions of, and experiments with, diversity and public engagement in the world of data science. ScienceAtHome: Online Computer Games as a ”Social Science Super Collider” Our final speaker of the spring lecture series is Professor MSO Jacob Friis Sherson, Director and Founder of the ScienceAtHome project and Center for Hybrid Intelligence at the Department of Physic and Astronomy, Aarhus University. Abstract What is to become of humankind in the future digital age and is there a way to break the monopoly of big tech companies on large scale data on human behavior? With the advent of AI one of the most important things we can do to prepare for the best possible future is to become more deeply aware of what it means to be human.The ScienceAtHome project within the Center for Hybrid intelligence uses online citizen science games (so far played by 300,000+ players world wide) not just to solve complex natural science challenges such as the development of a quantum computer but also as an online laboratory to study human intuition, creativity and innovation on a scale vastly exceeding traditional lab-based social science investigations. Our portfolio of games ranging from physics, mathematics and chemistry to economics, psychology and cognitive science provides a unique tool to systematically map the difference between human and artificial intelligence.We also have conducted first tests of a suite of game to conduct large scale social and cognitive science experimentation in the cloud involving both individual and collective processes. This infrastructure that we call the “social science super collider” (SSCS) is aimed at allowing social science researchers from around the world easy access to perform large scale experimentation on our community of citizen scientists.Our latest and most ambitious SSCS game is, Skill Lab, which aims to break the monopoly of large tech companies on large scale data of human behavior. It is a set of mini games that allows for game-based assessment of the cognitive profile of the players. So far, 20,000+ have signed up for our large scale mapping of cognitive profiles. As a first test of the potential of this for novel registry based research we had an open call for researchers to add a few survey questions to our game. In this way we are currently correlating cognitive functions with as diverse topics as sleep habits, entrepreneurship, political affiliation, language skills and public versus private employment. The lecture will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Agnete Vienberg Hansen at avh@econ.ku.dk."
"Leah Boustan, Princeton University";"Department of Economics";"2019-05-28";"15:30";"2019-05-28";"16:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"""Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants in the U.S. over Two Centuries"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants in the U.S. over Two Centuries"". Abstract: A defining feature of the “American Dream” is the view that even immigrants who come to the United States with few resources and little skills have a real chance at improving their children’s prospects. We use father-son linked datasets on millions of immigrants to study whether the children of immigrants catch up in their earnings with the children of the U.S.-born, and how the intergenerational mobility of immigrants to the US has changed over the last two centuries. Both in the past and today, children of immigrants had higher chances of moving up in the income distribution relative to the children of U.S.-born parents with comparable family income or occupation score. We provide suggestive evidence that immigrants’ location choices and mismatch between the position of immigrant fathers in the income distribution and their true ability or earnings potential both contribute to these higher levels of upward mobility. Contact person: Casper Worm"
"Marcus Mølbak Ingholt forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-05-28";"9:00";"2019-05-28";"13:00";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 ";"Marcus Mølbak Ingholt forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Financial Frictions in a Housing Economy: Multiple Credit Constraints, Internal Migration, and Bank Runs"" ";"""Financial Frictions in a Housing Economy: Multiple Credit Constraints, Internal Migration, and Bank Runs"" Kandidat: Marcus Mølbak Ingholt Titel ""Financial Frictions in a Housing Economy: Multiple Credit Constraints, Internal Migration, and Bank Runs"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Informationen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 28. maj 2019 kl. 9:00, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Martin Gonzalez-, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Associate Professor Vincent Sterk, University College London, UKAssistant Professor Roman Sustek, Queen Mary, University of London, UK Abstract This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters, written within macroeconomics and macrofinance. The overarching objective of the thesis is to improve our understanding of how asset price and credit fluctuations affect real activity. The thesis examines these issues through both empirical and theoretical methods. In the first chapter (”Multiple Credit Constraints and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Dynamics”), I study the macroeconomic implications of homeowners simultaneously facing loan-to-value and debt-service-to-income constraints on the amount they may borrow. In the following two chapters, I explore how the housing market and credit issuance affect real activity via labor migration and wage setting (“Not Moving and Not Commuting: Macroeconomic Responses to a Housing Lock-In”), as well as via mortgage defaults and bank runs (“Mortgage Defaults, Bank Runs, and Regulation in a Housing Economy”). "
"Jana Friedrichsen, DIW Berlin/Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"2019-06-04";"10:30";"2019-06-04";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""The effect of a leniency rule on cartel formation and stability - Experiments with open communication"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"""The effect of a leniency rule on cartel formation and stability - experiments with open communication"" Abstract Cartels can severely harm social welfare. Antitrust authorities introduced leniency rules to destabilize existing cartels and hinder the formation of new ones. Empirically, it is difficult to judge the success of these measures because the number of functioning cartels is unobservable. Previous experimental studies have simplified the decision framework in many aspects so that it is hard to draw conclusions about the effects of the leniency rule on real cartels from their results. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of leniency policies when a) firms communicate in free form, b) players in the role of the competition authority conduct controls and decide on fines, c) fines are based on cumulative profits during collusive spells. Surprisingly, our results indicate that the availability of a leniency rule does not affect cartel activity, the number of self-reports, and average market prices and may suggest that in an experimental design without a voting stage the anticipated effect of a leniency rule disappears. "
"EARN Workshop on Integration";"Mette Foged and Linea Hasager, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-06-12";"09:30";"2019-06-13";"16:30";"Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 2nd floor, room 20, 1353 Copenhagen K";"EARN Workshop on Integration 12 - 13 June 2019";" We are happy to announce the first EARN Workshop on Integration. The workshop will take place 12 - 13 June 2019 at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen and is part of the five-year research program EARN (Economic Assimilation Research Network) funded by the Innovation Fund Denmark. Keynote Dominik Hangartner (ETH Zurich, LSE) Invited speakers Francesco Fasani (QMUL) Tommaso Frattini (U Milan) Matti Sarvimäki (Aalto U) The researchers in the EARN program are Iben Bolvig (VIVE), Jacob Nielsen Arendt (RFF), Linea Hasager (U Cph) and Mette Foged (U Cph) and a scientific advisory group including Giovanni Peri (UC Davis), Oddbjørn Raaum (Frisch) and Torben Tranæs (VIVE), who will also participate in the workshop."
"Antonella Ianni, University of Southampton";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2019-08-13";"10:30";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""On the Heresthetics of Salience: Competition over Voters' Attention"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU) ";"""On the Heresthetics of Salience: Competition over Voters' Attention"" Abstract. We study a voting model in which two candidates compete for the attention of voters, who value both the spatial dimension of policy, as well as each candidate's personal attribute of valence. Candidates run in a winner-take-all election and draw voters' attention towards the attribute in which they enjoy a comparative advantage, by thus making it salient in voters' mind. The paper offers three contributions. First, it provides novel and significant experimental evidence in support of salient behaviour in voting. Second, it characterizes policy salient political equilibria as well as valence salient political equilibria with salient voters. Third, it suggests ways in which the notion of salience can be made operational, leading the way to testable implications. Experimental as well as theoretical results show that the median voter paradigm and its implications are challenged if voters are salient, as this raises a modeled attention externality, whereby strategic positioning of candidates in the policy dimension affects how attributes are perceived and ballots are cast. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Mismatch, Matching and the Allocation of Workers to Jobs";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-08-16";"9:15";"2019-08-16";"17:15";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Workshop arranged by Nikolaj A. Harmon";"Mismatch, Matching and the Allocation of Workers to Jobs Programme for workshop: ""Mismatch, Matching and Allocation of Jobs to Workers"""
"Marco Ottaviani, Bocconi University";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-08-20";"10:30";"2019-08-20";"11:45";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""Resource Allocation across Fields: Proportionality, Demand Relativity, and Benchmarking"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"""Resource Allocation across Fields: Proportionality, Demand Relativity, and Benchmarking"" Abstract: Some of the world’s largest research funding agencies allocate funds to different fields in proportion to the share of applications received in each field, thus equalizing the success rate across fields. Casting the problem in a simple supply and demand framework, we characterize the equilibrium acceptance standard and the resulting amount of applications when submissions are costly. We show that in all stable equilibria an increase in the accuracy of evaluation in a field reduces applications in that field. Multiple equilibria can result when the distribution of types does not have increasing hazard rate. Fields have perverse incentives to reduce the accuracy of evaluation in order to increase the number of successful applications in their field. Benchmarking current merit scores with respect to previous rounds - a practice introduced at the National Institutes of Health in 1988 - generates virtuous incentives to step up the accuracy of the evaluation. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen "
"IZA/UCPH Workshop";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-09-12";"09:00";"2019-09-13";"";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, Room CSS 26.2.21. Registration: CSS 26.3.21, 1353 Kbh K ";"Please find link to the full program for the IZA/UCPH Workshop";"“Evaluation of Labor Market Policies: New Data and New Approaches” The workshop has the aim of facilitating the dialogue between policy makers, administrators and academics interested in new approaches in the design and evaluation of labor market policies. The workshop consists of both presentations and group discussions. Please find link to the full program here on the IZA/UCPH Workshop The workshop is a joint initiative by the Institute of Labor (IZA) in Bonn/Germany and The Center of Behavioral Economics and Labor Market Performance (BELP). The organizing team is Steffen Altmann (IZA and University of Copenhagen), Thomas Dohmen (University of Bonn and IZA), Bert van Landeghem (University of Sheffield and IZA), Robert Mahlstedt (University of Copenhagen and IZA), Alexander Sebald (University of Copenhagen)."
"Andrea Colciago, De Nederlandsche Bank and University of Milano-Bicocca";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-09-19";"13:00";"2019-09-19";"14:30";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.1.21B";"""Competition and Inequality"". Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"Abstract: This paper builds a framework with strategic interactions between an endogenous number of producers that matches the distributions of income and wealth in the US. It explains recent trends in markups, factors’s share, and business dynamism through an increase in entry costs for new firms, which limits competition. Through those trends, it accounts for 25% to 50% of the increase in income inequality observed between 1989 and 2007 and for 30% of the increase in wealth inequality. It finds that just 3% of the population experiences a welfare gain during the transition from a high to a low competition environment. Paper Contact person: Emiliano Santoro "
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium #5";"Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet ";"2019-09-19";"16:00";"2019-09-19";"18:00";"CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) ";"Om sundhedsøkonomi.";"Sundhedsøkonomi den 19. septemberØkonomisk forskning spiller en stor rolle i at forstå sundhedsadfærd – både blandt dem, der efterspørger sundhedsydelser og dem der udbyder dem. I dette eksploratorium, hvor omdrejningspunktet er sundhedsøkonomi, kigger vi på hvordan vores forebyggende sundhedsadfærd påvirkes af de mennesker, der står os nærmest – familien og kollegerne. På udbudssiden ser vi på sundhedsplejerskernes rolle i at sikre ikke alene sundhed for spædbørn og mødre, men også den langsigtede udvikling af børnenes helbred, trivsel og uddannelse. Endeligt diskuterer vi hvilken rolle praktiserende læger spiller i en af verdenssamfundets største udfordringer - nemlig antibiotikaresistens, der truer med, at vi løber tør for virksom antibiotika, som vil have uoverskuelige konsekvenser for den globale sundhed. Oplægsholderne er Torben Heien Nielsen (lektor), Miriam Wüst (lektor) og Michael Ribers (postdoc).Efter oplæggene inviteres der på ”akademisk speeddating”, hvor deltagerne kan få indblik i flere forskningsprojekter i sundhedsøkonomi på økonomisk institut. Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet er vært for Økonomisk Eksploratorium.Det er gratis, og det foregår altid på CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) på torsdage kl. 16-18.Økonomisk Eksploratorium er et forum, hvor vi deler viden om nye forskningsresultater på Økonomisk Institut. Hvert semester afholder vi et arrangement om måneden, alle med et tema, som tager afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet. Med arrangementerne åbner Økonomisk Institut dørene ind til forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi kan bruges praktisk.Det er en mulighed for studerende og alle andre med interesse for økonomi at møde forskere uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for dig, der bare gerne vil vide mere, og for dig, der måske savner inspiration til valg af kurser og emner til opgaveskrivning. Du behøver ikke at være bange for at der kun bliver talt med formler og græske bogstaver. Økonomisk Eksploratorium foregår på en niveau hvor alle kan være med. Hver Eksploratorium giver plads til spørgsmål og dialog. Og så sørger vi for rigelige mængder kaffe og kage."
"SODAS Data Discussion w/ Samantha Breslin & Yevgeniy Golovchenko";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-09-20";"11:00";"2019-09-20";"12:00";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) is hosting yet another Data Discussion. This fall series will be started of by Samantha Breslin & Yevgeniy Golovchenko.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this fall. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Samantha Breslin, Assistant Professor at Department of Anthropology, and Yevgeniy Golovchenko, Department of Political Science, will present at the first Data Discussion of this fall series the 20th of September. Samantha Breslin: The Promise of Tech in Silicon Valley’s “Others” Technological innovation is being developed and promoted in disparate places as a way to diversify and develop local “knowledge economies” and to cultivate technologically skilled and entrepreneurial citizens. I draw on my PhD research in Singapore and my current research in Newfoundland, Canada and consider to what extent and in what ways (trans)national norms, values, and inequalities advanced by “centres” such as Silicon Valley are being (re)produced and negotiated as part of nascent technology policy, education, and practice. In particular, I consider the gendered and political economic implications – and contestations – of efforts by actors such as policy makers, educators, and international investors to develop and shape the values and norms of technology education and industry. Yevgeniy Golovchenko: Fighting Propaganda with Censorship: A Study of the Ukrainian Ban on Russian Social Media Many liberal states have become greatly concerned with Russian propaganda and disinformation on social media. The Ukrainian government responded to this threat in 2017 by blocking access to several Russian websites, including Vkontakte, one of the most popular social media websites in the region. By exploiting a natural experiment in Ukraine, I find that the sudden ban reduced online activity, even among Vkontakte users who are legally and technically capable of bypassing the censorship. Users with strong political and social affiliations to Russia are at least as likely to be affected by the ban as those with weak affiliations. I argue that the availability of online media — not political attitudes toward the state — is the main mechanism behind the response to the online ban. These findings suggest that this pragmatic view on censorship holds, even in the highly politicized military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@samf.ku.dk."
"Invitation to inaugural lecture";"DTU";"2019-09-20";"3:00 pm";"2019-09-20";"5:00 pm";"Technical University of Denmark, Anker Englunds Vej 1, 2800 Kongens Lyngby";"Inaugural lecture by Sune Lehmann";" The Technical University of Denmark is happy to welcome Professor Sune Lehmann as professor in Complexity and Network Science, at the Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science. In celebration of this appointment, DTU Compute invites you to attend Sune’s inaugural lecture followed by a reception. Venue Friday, 20 September, at 3 pm, building 101, 1st floor, room 1Technical University of Denmark, Anker Englunds Vej 1, 2800 Kongens Lyngby Programme 3:00-3:10 pm: Welcome by Professor, Head of Department Per B. Brockhoff3:10-3:50 pm: Inaugural lecture titled ”Data science, complex patterns, and human behavior”.4:00-5:00 pm: Reception Everybody is welcome. Registration is not required. "
"Laurs Røndbøll Leth forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-09-23";"14:30";"";"";"Københavns Universitet, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 4, lokale 4.2.26";"Laurs Røndbøll Leth forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on High-Frequency Market Microstructure: Herding and Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading""";"Laurs Røndbøll Leth forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on High-Frequency Market Microstructure: Herding and Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading"" Kandidat Laurs Randbøll Leth Titel ""Essays on High-Frequency Market Microstructure: Herding and Volume-Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Receptionen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 23. september 2019 kl. 14:30, Københavns Universitet, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 4, lokale 4.2.26. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Anders Rahbek, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Antonio Guarino, Økonomisk Institut, University College London, UKProfessor David Easley, Cornell University, USA Abstract This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters within financial market microstructure. The focal point is the modeling and implications of information-based trading in financial markets affected by high-frequency traders. Chapter 1 (“Rational Herding During a Stock Crash“) examines the extent of herd behavior in a stock market from 2005 to 2008. I consider an asymmetric information model with event uncertainty. This setting enables rational statistical herding to occur with positive probability. The model is fitted to the financial tick data of a NYSE traded stock, and findings reveal that the proportion of herd sellers increased during the Great Recession. This suggests that herd behavior may provide a part of the explanation of financial crises. Chapter 2 (“Delta Hedging and the VPIN“) investigates how portfolio hedging can take advantage of a microstructure measure (VPIN) of toxic order flow. Suppose a portfolio manager with a short position in a European call option attempts to collect its volatility risk premium by engaging in dynamic delta hedging of the underlying asset. The results show that VPIN signals large intraday price movements leading to losses of the hedging portfolio. Conditional on high VPIN readings, the portfolio manager is advised to either expand her portfolio with VIX futures and/or adjust her daily risk exposure. Finally, Chapter 3 (“Maximum Likelihood Estimation of VPIN: Toxic Order Flow and Warning Signals“) investigates if maximum likelihood estimation of the VPIN will improve its predictive power for short-term return volatility. This assessment is based on the classification of true and false positive events after high VPIN values were detected. Compared to the method of moment estimation, I show that maximum likelihood estimation is superior in terms of a lower false discovery rate.“"
"Facing Facebook with Roger McNamee";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) & BLOXHUB Science Forum ";"2019-09-23";"15:00";"2019-09-23";"17:00";"The Cerimonial Hall, Frue Plads 4, 1168 Copenhagen K";"SODAS is very happy to announce that Roger McNamee is visiting The University of Copenhagen. Roger McNamee will talk about how Facebook has inflicted to society across virtual and physical space - and what can be done to try and stop it.";" The early mentor to Mark Zuckerberg & Facebook investor, Roger McNamee, visits The University of Copenhagen the 23rd of September. He will highlight the serious damage Facebook has inflicted to society across virtual and physical space and what can be done to try and stop it. Program:15:00 Roger McNamee16:00 Science Forum Panel Debate16:45 Wine Reception We are very honoured to host Roger McNamee and therefore, the event is taking place in The Ceremonial Hall. The event is free, but registration is required. Click here to register!"
"DataBeers";"The DataBeersCPH organising team";"2019-09-23";"18:30";"2019-09-23";"20:30";"H15 (Halmtorvet 15, 1700 København, Denmark).";"DataBeers is open to all, there will be short and engaging talks about the latest advances in data science, many interesting people to network with and - of course - plenty of free beer. The event is sponsered by SODAS and DTU Compute.";"DataBeers is sponsered by SODAS and DTU Compute. Hello data and beer lovers, We are excited to announce the latest DataBeers event featuring an incredible line-up of speakers. Topics will include Twitter bots, the spread of fake news, data privacy and more! This event will feature guest speaker Roger McNamee – author, businessman, investor, venture capitalist and musician – who will discuss his latest book ""Zucked: Waking Up to the Facebook Catastrophe"". Roger was an early mentor for Mark Zuckerberg and investor in Facebook. The event is free, but registration is requiered."
"Vivien Lewis, Deutsche Bundesbank";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-09-26";"13:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""Going the Extra Mile: Effort by Workers and Job-Seekers"" Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Going the Extra Mile: Effort by Workers and Job-Seekers"" Abstract: We introduce two types of effort into an otherwise standard labor search model to examine indeterminacy and sunspot equilibria. Variable labor effort gives rise to increasing returns to hours in production. This makes workers more valuable and contributes to self-fulfilling profit expectations, raising the likelihood of indeterminacy. Variable search effort makes workers search more intensively in a tighter labor market, which alleviates congestion and reduces the likelihood of indeterminacy. Indeterminacy disappears completely when vacancy posting costs are replaced with hiring costs. "
"Alessandro Tarozzi with Digvijay Negi and Derek Headey, Pompeu Fabra ";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-09-27";"13:00";"2019-09-27";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26 (room 26.2.21)";" ""The Rise and Fall of SES gradients in heights around the world"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Rise and Fall of SES gradients in heights around the world"" Abstract The positive association between measures of wealth and health is well-documented both over time and across space. Height is often used as a ""stock"" indicator of health, as it also depends on net nutrition and disease during critical growth periods. Average height in a population is sometimes used as an indicator of economic development, and many countries have indeed experienced secular increases in stature during periods of rapid economic growth. However, in LDCs the cross-sectional association between adult height and GDP has been shown to be weak. We show, first, that while more recent data confirm this weak correlation for adults, the association is strong, positive, and growing with age among young children. Using individual-level longitudinal data from a number of LDC, we then confirm the existence of a rise and fall of SES gradients in height, and we show that for both boys and girls the inversion of the slope takes place around puberty. We conjecture that early marriage and child-bearing patterns may in part explain the flattening of the association between SES and height in adulthood, particularly for girls. Contact person: Neda Trifkovic"
"Social Data Science in Sociology w/ Anders Blok";"Forskningskollektivet";"2019-10-02";"17:00";"";"18:30";"Øster Farigmagsgade 5, room 4.1.18";"Social Data Science-October in Forskningskollektivet is opened by a presentation by Associate Professor from The Department of Sociology, Anders Blok, who will give an introduction to Social Data Science in Sociology. ";" Social Data Science-October in Forskningskollektivet is opened by a presentation by Associate Professor from The Department of Sociology, Anders Blok, who will give an introduction to Social Data Science in Sociology. He writes himself: ""What is being internally recognized as either 'computational social science' or 'digital methods' is in UCPH language 'social data science'. What does this term actually mean and to which degree can we speak of old sociological wine in new digital bottles? The presentation will try to draw the headlines based on the participation of Anders Blok in the interdisciplinary research project ""Social Fabric/Sensible DTU""."
"SODAS Data Discussion w/ Friedolin Merhout ";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-10-04";"11.00";"2019-10-04";"12.00";"CSS, room 1.2.26.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) is hosting the second Data Discussion of the fall. This time Assistant Professor from the Sociology Department, Friedolin Merhout, will present.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this fall. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Friedolin Merhout is Assistant Professor at Department of Sociology and will present his work. Friedolin Merhout: Airsent: A Sentiment Dictionary for the Social Sciences The growth and accessibility of textual data from online sources holds great promise for a variety of social scientific applications. At the same time, the volume of these newly available data poses challenges to traditional social science methods and calls for different approaches. These quantitative or automated text analysis approaches range from long-standing techniques such as keyword counts to novel unsupervised methods for topic discovery. Among these techniques, dictionary-based sentiment analysis is particularly suited for the study of social relations but existing dictionaries suffer from known limitations for these applications. This talk will outline a project combining online rating and review data from Airbnb with crowd-sourced sentiment evaluations to generate a sentiment dictionary specifically tailored to the study of social relations. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS' new location in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@samf.ku.dk. "
"Pedersen & Albris: Social science in a digitalized world";"Forskningskollektivet";"2019-10-09";"16:00";"2019-10-09";"17:30";"Øster Farigmagsgade 5, room 4.1.18";"In the research of social sciences and the digital reality, Morten and Kristoffer will tell about how new types of data and methods change and expand the possibilities of research. ";" In the research of social sciences and the digital reality, Morten and Kristoffer will tell about how new types of data and methods change and expand the possibilities of research. This will be unraveled /discussed in three parts: Firstly, an examination on why most anthropologists are solely interested in ethnographic and qualitative methods? Can’t there be a quantitative anthropology? This will be illuminated further in a discussion of how ethnography and quantitative methods can be complimentary, exemplified in a Ph.D.-project about disaster preparedness. Lastly, all of these considerations will be brought into relevance in a presentation of the ERC-financed project: DISTRACT (The Political Economy of Attention in Politicized Denmark), which involves a wide range of methods: both traditionally ethnographic fieldwork, machine learning and other data sciences. "
"Frokostoplæg: Managers of credit institutions: A financial elite";"Forskningskollektivet";"2019-10-10";"12:00";"2019-10-10";"13:00";"Øster Farigmagsgade 5, room 4.1.18";"Come and join us for the first frokostoplæg of the month, which will be held by Majsa, who will tell about her bachelor project";" The first frokostoplæg of the month will be held by Majsa, who will tell about her bachelor project: There has been an increased focus on financial elites and a critique of them in the population since the financial crisis in 2008. Especially the banking sector has been criticized in the wake of the financial crisis and the scandal about money laundering. But what special power does these managers possess that can make the secretary of economy and business remove the bank’s payment from the bank-packages and as the CEO’s have to withdraw because of scandals still receive a golden handshake of millions of kroners? I have tried to approach this subject in a sociological way in my bachelor project by examining which structures of power that characterizes the managers of credit institutions in Denmark, as well as how these structures have changed from 1910 to 2016. The focus of the presentation will be on the SODAS-perspectives of the bachelor project: methodically, I have coded a bunch of ORC-scanned biographies of 116 editions of ‘Kraks Blå Bog’ into a data set. The advantage of this is, that one can do more than contemporary analyses (as e.g. web-scraping), but that one can do historical analyses as well. I wrote my bachelor project in cooperation with Anton Grau Larsen and Christoph Ellersgaard (amongst others) under the research project ‘LongLinks’ at CBS, where I am now employed and continue to work on the project. They are very positive about interested students and are willing to share their data, so there is a possibility that you can get permission to use the data from this and other projects (read more here)."
"SODAS Talk w/ Giuseppe Alessandro Veltri";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-10-11";"11:00";"2019-10-11";"12:00";"CSS, Room 1.2.26.";"Associate Professor, Giuseppe Alessandro Veltri, from University of Trento will present his research at a SODAS Talk on Friday the 11th of October 2019. ";"Partitioning methods applied to cognitive sociology segmentation: Risk perception of European parents about online hazards Giuseppe Alessandro Veltri from University of Trente will present his research at a SODAS Talk on Friday the 11th of October 2019. Giuseppe Alessandro Veltri holds a BSc in Sociology from the University of Siena, an MSc in Social Research Methods (Statistics) from the Methodology Department of the London School of Economics (LSE) and a PhD in Social Psychology from the LSE. He is Associate Professor of Research Methodology and Cognitive Sociology at the Department of Sociology and Social Research of the University of Trento. He was Senior Lecturer at University of Leicester. He has been Lecturer at University of East Anglia and a scientific fellow at the European Commission JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS). He has published in scientific journals such as Nature, PLOS One, Computers in Human Behavior, Public Understanding of Science, Big Data & Society and others. His current research agenda and research-led teaching focus on the following areas: 1) The study of public opinion dynamics and social representations using a computational social science framework; 2) The development of research methodologies of a computational nature to social science problems 3) the intersection between sociology and behavioural sciences in the form of cognitive sociology. Abstract In this study, we have carried out research about European parents’ risk perception of online hazards concerning their children using a survey aimed at exploring different dimensions and determinants of risks. In this research, the target population was citizens aged 25–65, with children aged 6–14 living in their household and under their responsibility or care. The survey was conducted by computer-assisted web interviews (CAWI) using online panels in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, with 800 interviews per country (total N = 6,400). We carried out a two stages analysis. In the first part, we have explored the mapping and grouping of hazards based on participants’ assessment. In the second part, we carried a cognitive style segmentation of subjects based on the way how the risk perception judgements are made. This approach draws upon a cognitive sociology approach, which proposed the idea of “thought collectives” or “thought communities” identifiable by means of shared cultural schemas. The analysis was carried out using novel techniques like Correlational Class Analysis (Boutlyline, 2017) and Relational Class Analysis (Goldber, 2011). Results indicated the presence of three different cultural schemas defined groups that cut across countries and socio-demographic characteristics. Implications for the study of risk perception will be discussed. The SODAS Talk will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11:00 am - 12:00 noon the 11th of October 2019. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@samf.ku.dk "
"Andreea Enache, Stockholm School of Economics";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-10-22";"10:30";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"""Quantile Analysis of ""Hazard-Rate"" Game Models"", joint with Jean-Pierre Florens from Toulouse School of Economics. MRU-seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Quantile Analysis of ""Hazard-Rate"" Game Models"" Abstract This paper consists of an econometric analysis of a broad class of games of incomplete information. In these games, a player's action depends both on her unobservable characteristic (the private information), as well as on the ratio of the distribution of the unobservable characteristic and its density function (which we call the ""hazard-rate""). The goal is to use data on players' actions to recover the distribution of private information. We show that the structural parameter (the distribution of the unobservable characteristic) can be related to the reduced form parameter (the distribution of the data) through a quantile relation that avoids the inversion of the players' strategy function. We estimate non-parametrically the density of the unobserved variables and we show that this is the solution of a well-posed inverse problem. Moreover, we prove that the density of the private information is estimated at a root-n speed of convergence. Our results have several policy applications, including better design of auctions and public good contracts. Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf"
"Viral hate: Who is exposed to hatred?";"Forskningskollektivet";"2019-10-23";"15:30";"2019-10-23";"17:00";"Øster Farigmagsgade 5, room 4.1.18";"From Survey to artificial intelligence in the study of online political debates, Tobias Bornakke, Analyse & Tal";" From Survey to artificial intelligence in the study of online political debates, Tobias Bornakke, Analyse & Tal Surveys are often the foundation for how we understand society and societal changes. Where the survey method excels in its ability to capture our reflections upon a given subject, it often comes short when we try to capture and describe behavior over time. In this presentation we show how artificial intelligence, in the shape of a machine learning algorithm (in Danish) to identification of hateful language, offers a new and different view on the tone in the online political debate. The algorithm enables us to follow what political issues that especially provokes hate speech while also offering a more nuanced insight into the extent and development of hate speech over time. We conclude the presentation by discussing how studies of behavior enables us to raise new societal agendas and perspectives. "
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium #6";"Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet ";"2019-10-24";"16:00";"2019-10-24";"18:00";"CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) ";"Om udviklingsøkonomi.";"Udviklingsøkonomi den 24. oktober Den 24. oktober er FN dag og FN’s udviklingsmål diskuteres overalt i verden: Hvilke projekter arbejder udviklingsøkonomerne ved Økonomisk Institut med? I hvilke lande er udviklingsøkonomerne aktive og hvem samarbejder de med? Hvilken type forskning, rådgivning og kapacitetsopbygning udføres? Hvad viser udviklingsøkonomernes forskning om fattigdom og ulighed, erhvervsudvikling, politisk økonomi, udviklingsbistand mv.? Oplægningsholderne vil være John Rand, Henrik Hansen, Thomas Markussen og Finn Tarp. Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet er vært for Økonomisk Eksploratorium. Det er gratis, og det foregår altid på CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) på torsdage kl. 16-18. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er et forum, hvor vi deler viden om nye forskningsresultater på Økonomisk Institut. Hvert semester afholder vi et arrangement om måneden, alle med et tema, som tager afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet. Med arrangementerne åbner Økonomisk Institut dørene ind til forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi kan bruges praktisk.Det er en mulighed for studerende og alle andre med interesse for økonomi at møde forskere uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for dig, der bare gerne vil vide mere, og for dig, der måske savner inspiration til valg af kurser og emner til opgaveskrivning. Du behøver ikke at være bange for at der kun bliver talt med formler og græske bogstaver. Økonomisk Eksploratorium foregår på en niveau hvor alle kan være med. Hver Eksploratorium giver plads til spørgsmål og dialog. Og så sørger vi for rigelige mængder kaffe og kage. "
"A network approach to topic models";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-10-25";"11:00";"2019-10-25";"12:30";"CSS, room 1.2.26.";"The theme for this fall's lecture series is Text as Data. The first lecturer is Tiago de Paula Peixoto, who is Associate Professor at Central European University, Department of Network and Data Science.";"Text as Data Textual data abound on human communication. We leave textual traces on a great variety of our everyday doings. Our intimate concerns are formulated in google searches, we coordinate community initiatives in Facebook groups and articulate political ideologies on social media platforms. Text has become a fundamental medium through which many people interact, express and position themselves. In Digital Society the analysis, categorisation and organisation of textual content is off out most importance to governments, businesses, the press and academics alike. The field of computational text analysis is one of the central fields within the wider data revolution. Many methods are being imported into the social science from other fields, especially computer science. But concerns with text models biases and interpretative validity is becoming a growing concern within academia and beyond. This lectures series starts from the premise that text is not just data but social data. Texts are tied to specific contexts and cultural practices, properties that constitutes text data big potential, but also its high risk of being misinterpreted and misclassified - ruining both interpretation and measurement. More generally textual data presents challenges that ranges from core concerns within machine learning, to deep methodological issues in the social science regarding quantification, interpretation and how to combine qualitative and quantitative modes of analysis. In this lecture series we have invited scholars how have made valuable contributions to the interdisciplinary field of computational text analysis. A network approach to topic models Our first speaker of the fall lecture series is Associate Professor at Central European University, Department of Network and Data Science, Tiago de Paula Peixoto. Tiago P. Peixoto is a physicist and is currently an Associate Professor at the Department of Network and Data Science at the Central European University in Budapest, and external researcher at the ISI Foundation, Turin. He obtained his PhD at the University of São Paulo, and his Habilitation in Theoretical Physics at the University of Bremen. He was a Humboldt Foundation fellow, and the recipient of the Erdős-Rényi Prize (2019) awarded by the Network Science Society. His research focuses on characterising, identifying and explaining large-scale patterns found in the structure and function of complex network systems — representing diverse phenomena with physical, biological, technological, or social origins — using principled approaches from statistical physics, nonlinear dynamics and Bayesian inference. Abstract One of the main computational and scientific challenges in the modern age is to extract useful information from unstructured texts. Topic models are one popular machine-learning approach that infers the latent topical structure of a collection of documents. Despite their success—particularly of the most widely used variant called latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)—and numerous applications in sociology, history, and linguistics, topic models are known to suffer from severe conceptual and practical problems, for example, a lack of justification for the Bayesian priors, discrepancies with statistical properties of real texts, and the inability to properly choose the number of topics. We obtain a fresh view of the problem of identifying topical structures by relating it to the problem of finding communities in complex networks. We achieve this by representing text corpora as bipartite networks of documents and words. By adapting existing community-detection methods (using a stochastic block model (SBM) with nonparametric priors), we obtain a more versatile and principled framework for topic modelling (for example, it automatically detects the number of topics and hierarchically clusters both the words and documents). The analysis of artificial and real corpora demonstrates that our SBM approach leads to better topic models than LDA in terms of statistical model selection. Our work shows how to formally relate methods from community detection and topic modelling, opening the possibility of cross-fertilisation between these two fields. The lecture will take place in building 1, 2ndfloor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@samf.ku.dk."
"Frokostoplæg: When virtuous paedophiles gather on the internet";"Forskningskollektivet";"2019-10-28";"12:00";"2019-10-28";"13:00";"Øster Farigmagsgade 5, room 4.1.18";"";" The second frokostoplæg of the month will be held by Marie and Line, who will tell about their bachelor project: Did you know that there exist pedophiles who do not act upon their attraction? And that they have an online forum called ‘Virtuous Peadophiles’ where they support each other in avoiding sexual abuse of children? We have studied how the societal persona of the pedophile both limits and makes opportunities for the user’s self-understanding as well as the possibilities of feeling understood and accepted by others. In doing so we have used a qualitative thematical analysis of 600 pages of posts and comments from the website. We have, simultaneously, looked on the user’s negotiation of the figure of the virtuous pedophile which is dependent on the internal and external hierarchies of the forum. During the lunch break we will tell a bit about or results and our considerations and experiences with this atypical empiricism and the controversial subject. We hope that our presentation can inspire and encourage others to work with a controversial subject and different empiricism."
"Randall Morck, Alberta School of Business ";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2019-10-28";"14:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21";"""Asset Prices, Corporate Actions, and Bank of Japan Equity"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics. ";"""Asset Prices, Corporate Actions, and Bank of Japan Equity"" Abstract:Since 2010, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has purchased stocks to boost domestic firms’ valuations to increase GDP growth. The stock return elasticity with respect to BOJ purchases relative to the previous month’s market capitalization is around 1.6 on the day of the purchase and decreases across longer horizons. Over a quarter, BOJ share purchases worth 1% of total assets correspond to an increase of 1% in returns and a 0.27% increase in total assets. BOJ share purchases predict equity issuances but not debt issuances. However, this largely reflects increased cash and short-term investments. This unconventional monetary stimulus thus may boost share prices and encourages equity issuances, but is ultimately not well transmitted into real tangible capital investment. PaperRead more Contact person: Casper Worm Hansen "
"Willemien Kets, University of Oxford";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2019-10-29";"10:30";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.1.21B";"""A Theory of Strategic Uncertainty and Cultural Diversity"" Seminar arranged by Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"""A Theory of Strategic Uncertainty and Cultural Diversity"" Abstract This paper presents a novel mechanism through which culture can affect behavior. Cultural diversity matters because it influences the degree of strategic uncertainty that players face. We model this by building on research in psychology on perspective taking. The model delivers comparative statics that are broadly consistent with experimental evidence and that are difficult to obtain with existing methods. In addition, it can account for a variety of disparate evidence, including why inefficient social customs persist in some societies but not in others and why exclusively targeting incentives may not help with resolving collective action problems. Contact person: Christina Gravert"
"Frederik Plum Hauschultz forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-10-30";"14:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 ";"Frederik Plum Hauschultz forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Learning, Search, and Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets""";"Frederik Plum Hauschultz forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Learning, Search, and Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets"" Kandidat: Frederik Plum Hauschultz Titel ""Learning, Search, and Competition in Pharmaceutical Markets"". Tid og sted 30. oktober 2019 kl. 14:00, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 (Det Store Seminarrum, 2. sal). Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Nick Vikander, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet (formand)Associate professor Mitsuru Igami, Department of Economics, Yale University, USA Professor Pierre Dubois, Toulouse School of Economics, Frankrig Abstract This PhD dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters that all study separate aspects of supply and demand in the market for pharmaceutical products. The first chapter focuses on the role of past consumption experiences in shaping patients’ purchase decisions. In the chapter I estimate a dynamic structural model of consumer learning which explains key patterns in the data, in particular the fact that patients’ propensity to switch treatment and quit treatment decreases sharply at every pharmacy visit. The second chapter, which is written together with Anders Munk-Nielsen, studies price cycles in the Danish pharmaceutical markets. The price cycles are signified by large and sudden price increases followed by slow and gradual downward price movements that can take years to come back. We use transaction data to estimate a demand curve in these markets, and solve a dynamic Bertrand competition model that incorporate our estimated demand curve, and is able to produce these price patterns. The third chapter, which is written together with Anders Munk-Nielsen, studies pricing equilibria when consumers search sequentially for products. We use the fact that physicians who write prescriptions in Denmark choose brands from an alphabetically ordered drop-down list, which gives a strategic advantage to being ranked first. We show that firms respond to this advantage in their pricing, but in a surprising way. In small markets, the highest ranked firm charges the highest price, but in larger markets, high ranked firms charge lower prices. We solve a stylized model and show that it can reproduce this flip in the price rank gradient. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Receptionen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. "
"Discrimination and radicalization: A project with google data";"Forskningskollektivet";"2019-10-30";"15:30";"2019-10-30";"17:00";"Øster Farigmagsgade 5, room 4.1.18";"Friedolin Merhoud, a new Assistant Professor at the Department of Sociology, will present. ";" This Wednesday we have an interesting presentation by Friedolin Merhout, a new Assistant Professor at the Department of Sociology. Friedolin uses computational and experimental methods to examine intergroup relations leveraging digital trace, text, survey, and administrative data. At Forskningskollektivet, he will present a research project that uses Google search data to investigate the relationship between discrimination and radicalization. The project illustrates how digital trace data can shed led on phenomena hard to analyze using conventional social science methodology."
"SODAS Talk w/ Clara Vandeweerdt";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-11-01";"11:00";"2019-11-01";"12:00";"CSS, Room 1.2.26";"PhD student, Clara Vandeweerdt, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology will present at a SODAS Talk on Friday the 1st of November 2019. ";"SODAS Talk w/ Clara Vandeweerdt Higher volume, same tune: How political talk radio reacts to events Clara Vandeweerdt is a PhD candidate at the MIT Political Science Department with an interest in public opinion, quantitative research methods, and climate politics. Her recent work includes a project on political talk radio, survey experiments on group-based political thinking, and a model of global climate opinion. She has degrees in international relations and in experimental psychology from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and from the University of Leuven. Abstract In mainstream media, real-world events strongly influence the agenda--the political topics that media elites talk about. However, it is an open question whether events are as powerful at shaping the discussion in partisan media--and whether they change anything at all about the (ideologically motivated) way topics are framed. In this paper, I address this question by looking at talk radio speech before and after newsworthy events. Using natural language processing combined and crowd-sourcing, I analyze almost 1.5 million hours of talk radio, coming from hundreds of political talk radio shows--by far the largest amount of content processed in a radio study to date. I find that events create big spikes in the number of times a relevant political topic is mentioned on talk radio. However, events are not nearly as effective at closing the gap between liberal and conservative shows in how those topics are framed. If events turn up the volume of the discussion, without changing how sorted that discussion is, they could turn a shared experience into a polarizing moment. The SODAS Talk will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11:00 am - 12:00 noon the 1st of November 2019. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"Anne Toft Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-11-01";"13:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 ";"Anne Toft Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Topics in Economics of Higher Education: Choices and Returns""";"Anne Toft Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Topics in Economics of Higher Education: Choices and Returns"". Kandidat Anne Toft Hansen Titel ""Topics in Economics of Higher Education: Choices and Returns"". Tid og sted 1. november 2019 kl. 13:00, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 (Det Store Seminarrum, 2. sal). Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Miriam Wüst, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Björn Öckert, Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy, Uppsala, SverigeProfessor Arnaud Chevalier, Royal Holloway, University of London, UK Abstract This thesis comprises of three self-contained chapters each dealing with different aspects of higher education. Chapter 1 examines gender differences in the choice of education. The results suggest that females anticipate the wage gender gap when applying for higher education. Furthermore, the expected probability of having children is a determinant of females’ choice of education and not for males’ choice. (joint work with Helene Willadsen) Chapter 2 examines the effect of university location on the choice of where to live and work of Danish university graduates. The chapter provides evidence that pushing university applicants to study in a non-metropolitan region will result in some of these graduates staying and entering the labor market in non-metropolitan regions. Chapter 3 exploits a Danish grading reform that causes variation in university graduates' GPA. The findings show that a higher GPA caused by the grading reform yields higher earnings in the first two years after graduation, thereafter the signaling effect goes to zero. (joint work with Ulrik Hvidman and Hans Henrik Sievertsen) Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Receptionen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut."
"Magnus Tolum Buus forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut";"2019-11-01";"14:30";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS 2.1.12";"Magnus Tolum Buus forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""How Firms Expand in Export Markets. Evidence from Danish Data on Exporter-Importer Relationships and Export Promotion Services""";"Magnus Tolum Buus forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""How Firms Expand in Export Markets. Evidence from Danish Data on Exporter-Importer Relationships and Export Promotion Services"" Kandidat: Magnus Tolum Buus Titel: ""How Firms Expand in Export Markets. Evidence from Danish Data on Exporter-Importer Relationships and Export Promotion Services"". Tid og sted 1. november 2019 kl. 12:15, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, CSS 2.1.12. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Bertel Schjerning, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Jim Tybout, Department of Economics, Penn State, USAAssociate Professor Kalina Manova, University Collee London, UK Abstract This PhD dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters that all study separate aspects of firms’ expansion in export markets. They share a common focus on how firms grow in foreign markets and how firm-specific trade policies support this growth. The first chapter documents that Danish firms face considerable network effects in export markets. This means that exporters with large buyer networks more easily form more new buyer relationships. This finding has implications for exporters’ expansion strategies. I show that exporters set low prices upon entry to accumulate buyers, then increase prices as their network grows. I provide a simple theoretical framework through which this behavior can be rationalized. These finding make trade policies aiming at matching exporters with foreign importers more efficient. The second chapter examines the effects of a particular firm-specific trade policy, namely export promotion services (EPS). We identify the causal impact by exploiting random targeting by the Trade Council in Denmark across firms. We find that EPS boost firms’ export sales on existing markets, leaving export prices and product quality largely unchanged. This means that EPS effectively shift out exporters’ demand in foreign markets. The third chapter study the dual impact of EPS on foreign demand and the costs of export participation. Structural estimation shows that EPS increase foreign demand (in line with chapter two), and that EPS substantially reduces export costs for continuing exporters, whereas entry costs are left unchanged. This means that EPS support maintenance of existing export markets, rather than entry into new ones. Simulations show that this finding is important for how to increase export participation and export revenue through firm-specific trade policies: Improving the quality is more efficient than lowering the price. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Receptionen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut."
"Mining discourse patterns of hate and counter speech in Facebook";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-11-08";"11:00";"2019-11-08";"12:30";"CSS, room 1.2.26.";"The speaker for the second SODAS Lecture of the fall will be post-doctoral researcher at University of Hamburg, Gregor Wiedemann.";"Text as Data Textual data abound on human communication. We leave textual traces on a great variety of our everyday doings. Our intimate concerns are formulated in google searches, we coordinate community initiatives in Facebook groups and articulate political ideologies on social media platforms. Text has become a fundamental medium through which many people interact, express and position themselves. In Digital Society the analysis, categorisation and organisation of textual content is off out most importance to governments, businesses, the press and academics alike. The field of computational text analysis is one of the central fields within the wider data revolution. Many methods are being imported into the social science from other fields, especially computer science. But concerns with text models biases and interpretative validity is becoming a growing concern within academia and beyond. This lectures series starts from the premise that text is not just data but social data. Texts are tied to specific contexts and cultural practices, properties that constitutes text data big potential, but also its high risk of being misinterpreted and misclassified - ruining both interpretation and measurement. More generally textual data presents challenges that ranges from core concerns within machine learning, to deep methodological issues in the social science regarding quantification, interpretation and how to combine qualitative and quantitative modes of analysis. In this lecture series we have invited scholars how have made valuable contributions to the interdisciplinary field of computational text analysis. Mining discourse patterns of hate and counter speech in Facebook Post-doctoral researcher at University of Hamburg, Gregor Wiedemann, will give a lecture. Gregor Wiedemann works as a researcher in the Language Technology processing (NLP) group at Hamburg University (Germany). He studied political science and computer science in Leipzig and Miami. In 2016, he received his doctoral degree in computer science for his dissertation “Text Mining for Qualitative Data Analysis in the Social Sciences”. Wiedemann has worked in several projects in the fields of digital humanities and computational social science where he developed methods and workflows to analyse large text collections. Abstract Social media networks offer their users the opportunity to discuss the numerous contents of traditional mass media. Contrary to the idea of “echo chambers”, on Facebook pages of mass media providers people with very different political attitudes meet. There, users are confronted increasingly with hate speech comments, but also with efforts to contradict abusive language and discrimination with counter speech. The talk presents findings from a recent study of such discursive hate- and counter-speech patterns in German Facebook. Based on a large corpus of one million user comments from 2017, a framework for computer-aided critical discourse analysis of social media data is introduced. With the help of topic modelling and text classification, the material is structured in such a way that allows for precise navigation through thematically and categorically filtered subsets allowing for quantitative statistics as well as a seamless integration with qualitative data analysis steps. In a reflective summary of the methodological proceeding, I also give an outlook on promising innovations in natural language processing for automatic analysis of text as social data. The lecture will take place in building 1, 2ndfloor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"CPH Gammathon";"BCG, Boston Consulting Group";"2019-11-14";"17:00";"2019-11-14";"23:00";"BCG CPH, Kalvebod Brygge 24, 1560 Copenhagen, Denmark";"Are you passionate about advanced analytics and ready for a hackathon? Join us for a fun evening where you get to showcase your programming skills in a practical business problem case, using theory and tools from computer science and machine learning.";" Are you passionate about advanced analytics and ready for a hackathon? Join us for a fun evening where you get to showcase your programming skills in a practical business problem case, using theory and tools from computer science and machine learning. The case is developed by our Advanced Analytics & Data Science team called BCG Gamma, and should challenge even the most advanced students. The solution that creates the most value for the case client will be rewarded. Foods and drinks will be served on the evening. REQUIREMENTS: Relevant academic background Basic knowledge of R or Python Fluent in English HOW AND WHEN TO APPLY: Please apply by submitting: CV University grades achieved until now High school transcripts Apply before November 4, 2019 We look forward to a challenging evening with you! Apply here: on.bcg.com/CPHgammathonnovember2019 For additional information or queries, please reach out to Deepal Shah."
"An evening about MANIPULATION";"Carlsbergfondet, Ny Carlsbergfondet and Glyptoteket";"2019-11-14";"18:30";"2019-11-14";"20:30";"Dantes Plads 7";"Torsdag 14. november kl. 18.30-20.30 står den på misinformation, halve sandheder og lodrette løgne, når Carlsbergfondet, Ny Carlsbergfondet og Ny Carlsberg Glyptotek inviterer til årets sidste Videnskab|Lidenskab.";" Unfortunately, this event is in Danish. Torsdag 14. november kl. 18.30-20.30 står den på misinformation, halve sandheder og lodrette løgne, når Carlsbergfondet, Ny Carlsbergfondet og Ny Carlsberg Glyptotek inviterer til årets sidste Videnskab|Lidenskab. Under overskriften MANIPULATION mødes journalist Mikkel Frey Damgaard med professor i statskundskab ved Københavns Universitet, Rebecca Adler-Nissen, til en samtale om falske nyheder og den voksende spredning af dem på de sociale medier. Fotograf Henrik Saxgren fortsætter aftenen, når han interviewes om sin praksis, der placerer sig i krydsfeltet mellem dokumentation og kunst, mellem sandhed og iscenesættelse. Afslutningsvis vil Tine Bagh, Museumsinspektør på Glyptoteket, fortælle om oldtidens ekspert i kvindelig manipulation, selveste Dronning Kleopatra, med udgangspunkt i en stele fra hendes tid. Kunst, viden og øl Videnskab|Lidenskab, som er tilrettelagt af Carlsbergfondet, Ny Carlsbergfondet og Glyptoteket, sætter videnskabsfolk og billedkunstnere i stævne i Glyptotekets Festsal til live interviews og dialog. Aftenerne byder desuden på guidede nærstudier af udvalgte mesterværker fra Glyptotekets rige samling. Hver gang på baggrund af et aktuelt tema og hver gang med gratis pauseudskænkning af aftenens øl, der udvælges særligt til lejligheden af Carlsberg Laboratorium. Adler-Nissen og Saxgren Fake news har været på alles læber siden det amerikanske præsidentvalg i 2016. Rebecca Adler-Nissens forskning i international politik og diplomati har i de seneste år været fokuseret på årsagen til samt spredningen og konsekvenserne af falske nyheder på digitale medier. Som leder af forskningsprojektet Digital Disinformation, som er støttet af Carlsbergfondet, har Adler-Nissen leveret ny viden om den disinformation, der spredes strategisk med henblik på at vildlede, forvirre og præge opinion og politiske dagsordener. Senest stod Digital Disinformation bag en omfattende analyse af fænomenet samt en række anbefalinger til bekæmpelse af falske nyheder. Henrik Saxgren er oprindeligt uddannet reklamefotograf, men valgte hurtigt herefter at arbejde videre som dokumentarfotograf og fotojournalist og var i perioden 1985-91 fotoredaktør på det legendariske tidsskrift Press. Siden har han stået bag utallige udstillinger, udgivet en lang række bøger, ligesom hans værker er repræsenteret på flere danske kunstmuseer. Med sin suveræne visuelle fornemmelse for steder og mennesker har Saxgren gennem årene leveret fotografiske fortællinger fra ind- og udland. Fotografier, der trods deres ligefremme stil, synes at åbne op for yderligere og dybere indsigter, end hvad hans motiver kaster af sig ved første øjekast. Omkring årtusindskiftet skiftede Saxgrens kunstneriske stil fra sort/hvid-dokumentation til mere arrangerede kompositionser i farver. Det ligger til familien Videnskab og kunst ligger dybt i Carlsbergfamiliens DNA. Carlsbergs grundlægger, J.C. Jacobsen, moderniserede ølbrygningen gennem banebrydende videnskabelige metoder, ligesom han sikrede Carlsbergs fortsatte, massive støtte til videnskaben gennem etableringen af Carlsbergfondet. Historien gentog sig med sønnen Carl Jacobsen, der via overskuddet fra sit bryggeri og oprettelsen af Ny Carlsbergfondet blev den til dato største danske kunstmæcen, bl.a. ved donationen af sin enorme kunstsamling og Ny Carlsberg Glyptotek. Carlsbergfondet og Ny Carlsbergfondet hører i dag til de største i landet, når det gælder støtte til henholdsvis videnskab og kunst. Det er denne både strittende og levende arv, som Videnskab|Lidenskab samler sig omkring med det formål at skabe et format til at formidle nogle af videnskabens og kunstens mange indsigter. PRIS Almindelig entré til museet. Gratis med Glyptotekets Årskort. Bestil billetter herBemærk: Der er begrænset antal billetter til arrangementet. Billetter refunderes ikke, men må gerne gives videre. Bestil bord her, hvis I ønsker at spise i caféen. Præsenteret af: Carlsbergfondet, Ny Carlsbergfondet og Glyptoteket."
"Andrew Oswald, University of Warwick";"";"2019-11-20";"14:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.2.21";"""Why Is There So Much Midlife Distress in Affluent Nations"" Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Why Is There So Much Midlife Distress in Affluent Nations"" Abstract: This paper provides evidence of extreme levels of distress among midlife citizens in affluent nations. Yet, remarkably, these individuals are near the peak of their lifetime earnings and live in the healthiest and richest nations in human history. This is a troubling paradox that demands scientific and public-policy attention. The paper blends data on midlife suicide, sleeping problems, alcohol dependence, suicidal thoughts, poor concentration, forgetfulness, job strain, and severe headaches. The paper consciously eschews data on ‘happiness’ scores. We link our empirical analysis to, and find consistent ground within, three separate and currently disputatious literatures (on subjective well-being, distress among midlife Americans, and the ‘midlife crisis’). The paper’s key finding is not confined to cross-sections, nor to a single nation. Nor, it appears, is the pattern due to cohort effects. Overall, we argue that the phenomenon identified in the paper may now need to be addressed jointly by scholars across the fields of economics, psychology, psychiatry, epidemiology, political science, public health, and beyond. Andrew Oswald Contact person. Casper Worm Hansen"
"Mark Weder, Aarhus Business School";"Copenhagen Macro Distinguished Seminar";"2019-11-21";"13:00";"2019-11-21";"14:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s?"". Seminar arranged by Copenhagen Macro Distinguished Seminar";"""Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s? "" Abstract The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial wage-rigidity and finds that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to inflation but negligibly to the output gap. In the presence of non-trivial real imperfections and well-identified commodity price-shocks, U.S. data prefers a determinate version of the New Keynesian model: monetary policy-induced indeterminacy and sunspots were not causes of macroeconomic instability during the pre-Volcker era. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro "
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium #7";"Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet ";"2019-11-21";"16:00";"2019-11-21";"18:00";"CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) ";"Om klimaøkonomi.";"Miljø- og klimaøkonomi den 21. novemberHvordan kan man modellere miljø- og klimavirkninger af udviklingen i dansk økonomi, og hvordan påvirker Danmarks grønne omstilling samfundsøkonomien og de enkelte erhverv? Hvordan reagerer virksomhederne på miljøregulering? Hvordan kan man beregne et ”Grønt BNP” for Danmark? Det er nogle af de spørgsmål, som den miljø- og klimaøkonomiske gruppe på Økonomisk Institut arbejder med. Bidragsyderne i den miljøøkonomiske gruppe er Peter Birch Sørensen, Janek Bligaard, Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen, August Emil Twile Nielsen, Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen og Jonathan Leisner. Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet er vært for Økonomisk Eksploratorium. Det er gratis, og det foregår altid på CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) på torsdage kl. 16-18. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er et forum, hvor vi deler viden om nye forskningsresultater på Økonomisk Institut. Hvert semester afholder vi et arrangement om måneden, alle med et tema, som tager afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet. Med arrangementerne åbner Økonomisk Institut dørene ind til forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi kan bruges praktisk.Det er en mulighed for studerende og alle andre med interesse for økonomi at møde forskere uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for dig, der bare gerne vil vide mere, og for dig, der måske savner inspiration til valg af kurser og emner til opgaveskrivning. Du behøver ikke at være bange for at der kun bliver talt med formler og græske bogstaver. Økonomisk Eksploratorium foregår på en niveau hvor alle kan være med. Hver Eksploratorium giver plads til spørgsmål og dialog. Og så sørger vi for rigelige mængder kaffe og kage."
"SODAS Data Discussion w/ Gregory Eady & Mette Foss Andersen";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-11-22";"11.00";"2019-11-22";"12.00";"CSS, room 1.2.26.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce the third SODAS Data Discussion of this fall where Gregory Eady and Mette Foss Andersen will present their work.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this fall. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Assistant Professor at Department of Political Science, Gregory Eady will present his work followed by Mette Foss Andersen, who is a MSc student at the London School of Economics. Gregory Eady's substantive research agenda focuses on political behavior on social media, and his methodological work on developing quantitative methods and software for analyzing social media and public opinion survey data. Mette Foss Andersen is a Sociologist from the University of Copenhagen with 3 years of working experience in analyzing education and crime. Currently MSc Social Research student at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Interested in Quantitative Text Analysis, Big Data, and Social Network analysis. Gregory Eady: Political Information Sharing and Ideological Polarization on Social Media What explains the online information-sharing behavior of politicians and ordinary citizens? This article examines the sharing behavior of politicians and ordinary users by mapping the ideological foundation of political information shared on social media. As data, we use the near-universal currency of online political information exchange: URLs (i.e. web links). First, we introduce a new method (and statistical software) to unify the measurement of the political ideology, using social media sharing data to estimate the ideology of (1) politicians, (2) users, and (3) the news content that they share online. Second, we show empirically that legislators with more ideologically extreme voting records, and those who represent less competitive districts are more likely to share politically polarizing news. Third, we show however that it is ordinary users, not politicians, who share the most ideologically extreme content and contribute most to the polarized online news-sharing ecosystem. Our approach opens up many avenues for research into the communication strategies of legislators, citizens, and other actors who seek to influence political behavior and sway public opinion by sharing political information online. Mette Foss Andersen: ISIS-activity on Twitter. A social network approach on how radical Islamistic propaganda is spread on the platform The terrorist-organisation ISIS has over the last years re-structured to a less centralised institution, encouraging individuals to carry out attacks on their own. The primary foundation for recruitment is different social media platforms and research has shown that the organisation especially uses Twitter to broadcast its messages and recruit new fighters. This study aims to identify ISIS-activity on Twitter in the last weeks of ISIS’ self-promoted caliphate (13th of February to the 5th of March 2019) by the use of Machine Learning. The study also aims to conduct a Social Network Analysis on how the network is organised on Twitter and how ISIS-propaganda is spread on the platform. The corpus consists of 5,4 Mio tweets downloaded in the period, and 50.000 tweets from a crowd-sourcing initiative by the activist-organisation Anonymous who in 2014 asked volunteers with expertise in Arabic to report ISIS-activity on Twitter. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"Mads Greaker, Oslo Metropolitan University";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-11-22";"13:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, 26.1.21B";"""R&D and Climate Clubs"". ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS SEMINAR.";"""R&D and Climate Clubs"" Abstract Provision of global public goods necessitates coordination and cooperation between countries. This is particularly difficult in view of the fact that public goods encourage free riding. Moreover, if the costs of contributing is high, the incentive to free ride on others’ contributions becomes even more severe. A necessary part of the solution to sustain global cooperation is cost-reducing innovation. But the most advanced and premature technologies often require heavy start-up costs. This model considers a scenario where the chance of ending up as the single developer that harvests all the revenue of a breakthrough technology is too small to tempt investments. When countries do not have the incentive to undertake unilateral development of risky innovation projects, they should conduct research jointly. We consider an international environmental agreements (IEA) that includes an R&D club where members share the sales revenues from licensing their cost-reducing technology to non-members. An R&D and climate club can sustain a higher number of members and thus more abatement than a standard IEA. If the costs (abatement costs or research costs) are sufficiently high, the club will achieve full membership and the social optimal level of abatement. Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"SODAS Pop-up Talk w/ Eleanor J. Murray";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-11-28";"09:00";"2019-11-28";"10:00";"CSS, Room 1.2.26.";"SODAS Pop-up Talk with Assistant Professor of Epidemiology, Eleanor J. Murray, ScD, Boston ";"Using the target trial framework to improve decision making when our data are too big, too small, or too complex Thursday the 28th of November, SODAS host a SODAS Pop-up Talk with Assistant Professor of Epidemiology, Eleanor J. Murray, ScD, Boston. She is currently an Assistant professor of epidemiology at Boston University School of Public Health. Her research is on causal inference methodology for improving evidence-based decision-making by patients, clinicians, and policy makers. She uses novel statistical methods to answer comparative effectiveness questions for complex and time-varying treatments using observational data and randomised trials when available, and individual-level simulation modelling when insufficient data exist in the time frame required for decision-making. She is currently applying these methods to a variety of medical conditions including HIV progression, cancer, psychiatric conditions, and cardiovascular disease. Abstract The target trial framework is a useful tool for causal decision making. It helps us frame and understand the questions we are asking of our data, avoid common biases, and correctly interpret the results of our research from both observational studies and from randomised trials. This framework can even be applied to simulation-based methods to gain insight into the causal consequences of exposures on networks and other settings where causal inference has been traditionally limited. However, maximising the usefulness of the target trial framework requires a strong understanding of randomised trials – something often considered beyond the scope of epidemiology. This talk will describe the target trial framework, and the required assumptions, interpretation of results, and applications of this framework to making meaningful decisions using big data, small data, and complex data, and conclude with a brief discussion of the role of machine learning in causal inference. The SODAS Pop-up Talk will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 9:00 am - 10:00 am Thursday the 28th of November 2019. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk "
"Danish Society for Economic and Social History";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2019-11-28";"09:00";"2019-11-29";"16:00";"Faculty Lounge 35.3.20, CSS 2.1.12";"Arranged by Casper Worm Hansen(University of Copenhagen) and Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark)";"Conference pageProgramme"
"PhD defence w/ Ulf Aslak";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) and Department of Economics";"2019-11-28";"14:00";"2019-11-28";"16:30";"CSS, room 1.1.18";"Ulf Aslak will defend his PhD Thursday the 28th of November at CSS.";"Complexity in Social Data: Towards mapping and understanding complex phenomena in big social systems, using data science Abstract It is now possible to accurately measure human behaviour and understand it at large scales. Smartphones, social media sites and markets deliver a massive stream of data, that can be tapped into to understand previously unknown social phenomena. One of the things we are discovering is that human social systems are highly complex, displaying many of the hallmarks of complex systems, such as large scale self-organisation and reoccurring patterns. At the same time, they are extremely chaotic, making it near impossible to accurately simulate or predict their behaviour. Computational social science, or social data science, has therefore emerged as an interdisciplinary field of social scientists turned data scientists and vice versa, with the ambition to answer fundamental questions about human behaviour. Operating within this field, this thesis explores complex phenomena in social and behavioural data. It spans a wide range of topics within different fields, from neuroscience to animal ecology, but is connected throughout by the idea of complexity. Contact the information at the Department of Economics (room 26.0.20) before the PhD defence in order to obtain a copy of the PhD thesis."
"Ulf Aslak forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Samfundsvidenskab, UCPH";"2019-11-28";"14:00";"";"";"Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, CSS 1.1.18 ";"Ulf Aslak forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Complexity in Social Data. Towards mapping and understanding complex phenomena in big social systems, using data science""";" Ulf Aslak forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Complexity in Social Data. Towards mapping and understanding complex phenomena in big social systems, using data science"" Kandidat Ulf Aslak Titel ""Complexity in Social Data. Towards mapping and understanding complex phenomena in big social systems, using data science"". Tid og sted 28. november 2019 kl. 14:00, Københavns Universitet, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, CSS 1.1.18. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Mogens Fosgerau, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formandSpecially appointed professor Petter Holme, Institute of Innovative Research, Tokyo Institute of Technology, JapanProfessor Francisco Camara Pereira, DTU Abstract It is now possible to accurately measure human behavior and understand it at large scales. Smartphones, social media sites and markets deliver a massive stream of data, that can be tapped into to understand previously unknown social phenomena. One of the things we are discovering is that human social systems are highly complex, displaying many of the hallmarks of complex systems, such as large scale self-organization and reoccurring patterns. At the same time, they are extremely chaotic, making it near impossible to accurately simulate or predict their behavior. Computational social science, or social data science, has therefore emerged as an interdisciplinary field of social scientists turned data scientists and vice versa, with the ambition to answer fundamental questions about human behavior. Operating within this field, this thesis explores complex phenomena in social and behavioral data. It spans a wide range of topics within different fields, from neuroscience to animal ecology, but is connected throughout by the idea of complexity. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Receptionen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut"
"Women in Digital";"BCG in Denmark & Women in Tech DK";"2019-11-28";"17:30";"2019-11-28";"22:00";"BCG, Kalvebod Brygge 24, 1560 Copenhagen";"This event is a unique networking and learning opportunity for young female professionals and students interested in a digital career.";" Do you have a keen interest in technology and digital topics and want to discover the many different career paths within the digital field?Then join us and other likeminded females for a cozy and insightful evening, hosted by DigitalBCG and Women In Tech DK. This event is a unique networking and learning opportunity for young female professionals and students interested in a digital career.The evening will start with a welcome and mingling session. Next, our four exceptional speakers for the evening will share how technology is transforming industries and organizations as well as their personal paths and stories. Lastly, there will be an exciting panel discussion, focusing on digital career paths and possibilities.THE SPEAKERS ARE- Carin Forsling, Partner at BCG in Sweden- Gitte Frederiksen, Project Leader at BCG in Denmark- Hanh Nguyen, Senior Associate at BCG in Denmark- Alexandra Kampmann, Senior Venture Architect at RainmakingThe evening will end with dinner and drinks, where you will have the chance to connect further with fellow participants and peers.HOW TO APPLYWe welcome applications from female students with digital affinity and young professionals with 2-5 years of work experience in digital/technology.Application Deadline was November 17, 2019. Read more about the event on facebook here.We look forward to hearing from you!"
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium #8";"Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet ";"2019-12-05";"16:00";"2019-12-05";"18:00";"CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) ";"Om Pisa undersøgelsen 2018.";"Økonomisk Eksploratorium – særarrangement om PISA 2018 Over en halv million 15-årige fra 80 lande/områder deltog i PISA-testen i 2018. Eleverne blev testet i læsning, matematik og naturfag hoveddomænet var læsning i 2018. Resultaterne af denne PISA-runde (PISA 2018) udgives den 3. december 2019, hvor der også åbnes op for at få adgang til PISA dataene på OECD’s hjemmeside. Ekstern lektor cand. stat. Hans Bay vil fortælle om denne PISA undersøgelsen med fokus på de danske resultater. PISA blev første gang gennemført år 2000 og er efterfølgende blevet gennemført hvert 3. år. Denne undersøgelse er dermed den 7. PISA undersøgelse. I den sidste PISA undersøgelse (PISA 2015) deltog 519.334 elever omfattende 73 lande/områder. Danmark har deltaget i alle runder. På Polit bruges PISA datasættene især på kurserne i stikprøveteori og på sommerskolen for videregående statistik. Endvidere er der skrevet en række BA og specialer med udgangspunkt i PISA. Det er OECD, der står for gennemførelsen af PISA og fra deres hjemmeside står der: PISA er OECD’s Program for International Student Assessment. Hvert tredje år tester man 15-årige elever fra hele verden i læsning, matematik og naturfag. Testene er designet til at måle, hvor godt eleverne behersker disse nøglefag for at være forberedt på virkelige situationer i den voksne verden. Hvorfor vælge 15-årige? Fordi de fleste lande i en alder af 15 år kan beslutte, om de vil fortsætte deres uddannelse eller ej. De skal derfor være rustet til det voksne liv. PISA offentliggør resultaterne af testen et år efter, at eleverne er testet for at hjælpe regeringerne med at forme deres uddannelsespolitik. PISA-cyklusser henvises til det år, hvor eleverne blev testet. Derfor betyder PISA 2000, at eleverne blev testet i 2000, PISA 2003, i år 2003 og så videre.Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet er vært for Økonomisk Eksploratorium. Det er gratis, og det foregår altid på CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) på torsdage kl. 16-18. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er et forum, hvor vi deler viden om nye forskningsresultater på Økonomisk Institut.Hvert semester afholder vi et arrangement om måneden, alle med et tema, som tager afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet. Med arrangementerne åbner Økonomisk Institut dørene ind til forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi kan bruges praktisk. Det er en mulighed for studerende og alle andre med interesse for økonomi at møde forskere uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for dig, der bare gerne vil vide mere, og for dig, der måske savner inspiration til valg af kurser og emner til opgaveskrivning. Du behøver ikke at være bange for at der kun bliver talt med formler og græske bogstaver. Økonomisk Eksploratorium foregår på en niveau hvor alle kan være med. Hver Eksploratorium giver plads til spørgsmål og dialog. Og så sørger vi for rigelige mængder kaffe og kage. "
"SODAS Data Discussion w/ Aske Mottelson & Hjalmar Alexander Bang Carlsen";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-12-13";"11.00";"2019-12-13";"12.00";"CSS, room 1.2.26.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce the final Data Discussion of this fall. Aske Mottelson and Hjalmar Alexander Bang Carlsen will present their work.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this fall. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. The first presenter is Aske Mottelson. He is Ph.d in Computer Science and Postdoc at the Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen. Aske is interested in the intersection between human behavior (social psychology, personality psychology) and computational methods (machine learning, data science, software engineering). His recent work includes research in Affective Computing, Mobile Sensing, and Virtual Reality. The second presenter is Hjalmar Alexander Bang Carlsen, Postdoc here at SODAS. Aske Mottelson: Investigating online political candidate tests from the 2019 Danish general election by scraping and running random simulations Online tests that match voters with political candidates are increasingly popular ahead of elections. In this data discussion, I will present scraped data, simulation results, and speculations about the popular political tests from the 2019 Danish general election. The data suggest some candidates might have 1000x probability of being suggested by these platforms, because of the choice of algorithms to compute similarity. Hopefully, this will initiate discussions about the algorithmic issues (ethically and mathematically) of similarity scoring between questionnaire responses from voters and political candidates. Hjalmar Alexander Bang Carlsen: Qualifying text as data: steps towards interpretatively valid and unbiased classification of textual data Classification of text has huge potential for digital social research allowing researchers to get qualitative information on social interactions at scale. Yet very tricky methodological concerns arise when wanting to classify large amounts of text. Many of the textual dataset newly available to social scientists are heterogeneous - spanning very different populations and practices. In such a setting concerns with interpretative validity and biased measurement error become particularly acute. In this talk I will present two of the dominant strategies within text classification which tries to handle these difficulties: computationally grounded theory and supervised classification. I note the limitations in both strategies and proceed to present a set of steps which seek to ensure both interpretatively valid categories and good measurement. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"Emil Bjerre Jensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2019-12-13";"13:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 35, lokale CSS 35.3.12";"Emil Bjerre jensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on Spending, Mortgages and Preferences. Evidence from transaction data""";"Emil Bjerre jensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on Spending, Mortgages and Preferences. Evidence from transaction data"" Kandidat: Emil Bjerre jensen Titel ""Essays on Spending, Mortgages and Preferences. Evidence from transaction data"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Receptionen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 13. december 2019 kl. 13:00, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 35, lokale CSS 35.3.12. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Asger Lau Andersen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Lektor Kaveh Majlesi, Lund Universitet, SverigeProfessor Gisle Natvik, BI Norwegian Business School, Norge Abstract This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. In the first chapter, written together with Jeppe Druedahl and Søren Leth-Petersen, we study the spending responses of borrowers with adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) around the timing of an interest rate reset. We exploit that the bank sends a letter to ARM borrowers in advance where they inform about the expected change in mortgage payments upon the reset. We find that unconstrained households respond immediately, while liquidity constrained households respond around the time where cash-flow arrives, and rationalize the behavior within a buffer-stock model. In the second chapter, written together with Søren Leth-Petersen, we examine whether home owners, who refinance fixed rate mortgages, increase spending. We find that the overall spending effect is small. To understand this result, we consider two groups of refinancers. One group face a strong incentive to refinance to lock in a lower market rate, and are primarily found to increase loan repayments and saving. Another group of refinancers have less of an incentive to refinance, and we find that they, on the contrary, are more likely to cash-out refinance and increase spending. In the third chapter, I examine how household-specific preferences predict spending responses by structurally estimating preference parameters non-parametrically. Based on the structurally estimated preference parameters, I calibrate household-specific consumption functions to derive MPC estimates. By decomposing the variance of the MPC, I show that 76% of the variation in the MPC is driven by characteristics while 24% is due to temporary circumstances. In a simulation exercise, I demonstrate how household characteristics create a deadweight loss under fiscal polices due to significant differences in spending responses."""
"Jan Potters, Tilburg University";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2019-12-17";"10:30";"2019-12-17";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Delegation with strategic complements and substitutes"". Seminar arranged by the Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU).";"""Delegation with strategic complements and substitutes"" Abstract We examine strategic delegation in a two-stage game. Principals set the incentives for their respective agents, and subsequently the agents choose the strategies in the underlying game. Equilibrium predicts that principals set cooperative incentives if the game is characterized by strategic complements and competitive incentives if the game is characterized by strategic substitutes. We set up a lab experiment to test these predictions. Results show that, as predicted, principals choose competitive incentives for their agents with strategic substitutes, but contrary to prediction, principals do not set cooperative incentives in the game with strategic complements. It turns out that agents behave more cooperatively with strategic complements than equilibrium would predict. This may explain why principals do not set cooperative incentives in this case. Download paper Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf"
"SODAS Lecture Series: Text as Data";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2019-12-19";"11:00";"2019-12-19";"12:30";"CSS, room 1.2.26.";"The speaker of the third and last SODAS Lecture is Gian Marco Campagnolo, who is Lecturer in Science & Technology Studies and Turing Inaugural Fellow at the University of Edinburgh.";" Textual data abound on human communication. We leave textual traces on a great variety of our everyday doings. Our intimate concerns are formulated in google searches, we coordinate community initiatives in Facebook groups and articulate political ideologies on social media platforms. Text has become a fundamental medium through which many people interact, express and position themselves. In Digital Society the analysis, categorization and organization of textual content is off out most importance to governments, businesses, the press and academics alike. The field of computational text analysis is one of the central fields within the wider data revolution. Many methods are being imported into the social science from other fields, especially computer science. But concerns with text models biases and interpretative validity is becoming a growing concern within academia and beyond. This lectures series starts from the premise that text is not just data but social data. Texts are tied to specific contexts and cultural practices, properties that constitutes text data big potential, but also its high risk of being misinterpreted and misclassified - ruining both interpretation and measurement. More generally textual data presents challenges that ranges from core concerns within machine learning, to deep methodological issues in the social science regarding quantification, interpretation and how to combine qualitative and quantitative modes of analysis. In this lecture series we have invited scholars how have made valuable contributions to the interdisciplinary field of computational text analysis. Participative Epistemology in Social Data Science: combining ethnography with computational and statistical approaches The third and last speaker of SODAS' Lecture Series fall 2019 is Gian Marco Campagnolo who is Lecturer in Science & Technology Studies and Turing Inaugural Fellow at the University of Edinburgh. Developed through a number of inter-linked ESRC funded projects in the last five years, Gian Marco Campagnolo's research is the social study of data science. He recently completed a ten year long research programme on the sociology of business knowledge applying a mixed methods approach to identify the dynamics of expertise in information technology markets. His new research programme focuses on valuation practices in high-velocity environments looking at the use of data science in sport. Abstract In this lecture I introduce the new notion of participative epistemology and discuss how it can contribute to sensitising social data science. I will do so by offering the case of a project where ethnographic, computational and sequence analysis methods have been used in combination. By exemplifying it through the analysis of the project’s research design and early results, I suggest a new view on the collaboration between data science and social science. The new notion of participative epistemology will be articulated in three points: (1) a view of how research subjectivities can shape research design; (2) an attention for the research object as co-participant in the research and (3) a sensitivity for the object-relation regimes as having agency in shaping research outcomes. The lecture will take place in building 1, 2ndfloor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm the 19th of December. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"Christoph Siemroth, University of Essex (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2020-01-07";"11:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Job Market seminar";"""How much information is incorporated in financial asset prices? Experimental Evience"" Abstract We derive a new method to estimate how much information is incorporated in financial market prices. In our meta study with data from existing and new double auction experiments, we directly estimate the informational content of prices for the first time. We find that public information is almost completely reflected in prices, but that surprisingly little private information---less than 50%---is incorporated in prices. Our estimates therefore suggest that while semi-strong informational efficiency is consistent with the data, financial market prices may be very far from strong-form efficiency. We compare our estimates with beliefs of economists surveyed at the Econometric Society Meetings, and find that economists and finance researchers alike expect market prices to reflect considerably more private information than what we estimated. These results suggest that academics may overestimate the ability of financial markets to incorporate private information. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Helene Willadsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-01-08";"13:30";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21";"Helene Willadsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Economic Behaviour of Children and Young Adults""";"Helene Willadsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Economic Behaviour of Children and Young Adults"" Kandidat: Helene Willadsen Titel ""Economic Behaviour of Children and Young Adults"". Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Receptionen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut. Tid og sted 8. januar 2020 kl. 13:30, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Miriam Wüst, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Seda Ertac, Koc University, TyrkietProfessor Daniel Schunk, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität, Tyskland Abstract Preferences and choices in childhood, adolescence and early adulthood are important because they lay the foundation for the adult life. Children face economic decisions every day, like the choice of studying versus leisure. As children transcend into adolescence, economic choices are increasing in number and importance. Already at age 15 to 16, adolescents must choose to enroll – or not – in High School, and how much effort to spend in school. After High School, young adults must choose if they want to invest in more education, and of what type of education. Friends are also becoming increasingly important and counterbalancing own interests with those of friends is essential for forming and maintaining social relations. The chapters in this thesis are all self-contained. Chapter 1, Co-authored with Marco Piovesan is a methodological contribution where we design and validate a survey to measure risk, time and social preferences. Chapter 2 documents how risk, time and social preferences change in age, from age 9 to age 15. Specifically I show that patience and risk neutrality is more widespread among older children, and that social preferences are more heterogeneous among older children. Chapter 3, coauthored with Marco Piovesan and Lotte Kofoed, investigates competitiveness among children in the age from 7-15 years old. We find that girls are 8.4 % less likely than boys to choose a competitive scheme. Chapter 4, coauthored with Anne Toft Hansen, investigates how high school graduates are choosing educations and shows that females are less likely to choose educations within a math field. For females the expected probability of having children is a determinant of their choice of education but not for males. Chapter 5, coauthored with Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen, focuses on cooperation among 1st year University students. Based on an experiment, we show that subjects can use information from real-world interactions to inform them of cooperativeness of others."
"Kasper Kragh-Sørensen, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-10";"12:30";"2020-01-10";"13:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Optimal Property Taxation"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Optimal Property Taxation"" Abstract This paper studies the optimal property tax rate and how it interacts with a tax on capital income. To quantify optimal taxes, I employ a general equilibrium life-cycle model with overlapping generations and incomplete markets calibrated to the U.S. economy. I show that the optimal property tax for newborns in the long run is considerably higher than today’s level of one percent. For example, the optimal property tax is 4.6 percent in the benchmark model and this coincides with a reduction in the capital income tax from 36 percent to around zero percent. Current generations, however, would incur substantial welfare losses from an implementation of the long-run optimal policy. I show that the optimal policy for current generations is actually to keep the property and capital income taxes close to today’s levels. Consequently, I find that a social planner will only set the property tax rate at its long-run optimal level if the social discount rate is significantly lower than the private. A key policy implication is thus that any reasonable analysis of optimal property taxation has to take the short-run welfare implications into consideration. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Maria Juul Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-01-10";"15:30";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21 ";"Maria Juul Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Topics in Urban Economics: Non-Market Valuation and Location Choice"".";"Maria Juul Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Topics in Urban Economics: Non-Market Valuation and Location Choice"". Kandidat: Maria Juul Hansen Titel: ""Topics in Urban Economics: Non-Market Valuation and Location Choice"" Tid og sted 10. januar 2020 kl. 15:30, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K, bygning 26, lokale 26.2.21. Af hensyn til kandidaten lukkes dørene præcis. Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Mette Ejrnæs, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Lektor Ismir Mulalic, DTU, DanmarkProfessor Robert A. Miller, Carnie Mellon University, USA Abstract This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters on topics in urban economics. They complement each other by taking three different angles on what drives the decisions on where to live and work. Chapter 1 develops a reduced-form method to estimate marginal willingness to pay for non-marginal changes in non-traded amenities under time-varying preferences. It applies the method to violent crime. The results document that ignoring time-varying preferences causes a significant bias. (Joint work with Christopher Timmins). Chapter 2 develops and estimates a dynamic model for housing size and residential and work locations with equilibrium constraints on the housing market. The chapter provides evidence that increasing the housing supply in Copenhagen lowers equilibrium prices, increases urbanization and motivates richer households to reside in Copenhagen. Increasing commute costs results in higher non-employment rates and lower equilibrium prices in the peripheral regions. (Joint work with Christian Langholz Carstensen, Fedor Iskhakov, John Rust and Bertel Schjerning). Chapter 3 sets up a collective dynamic model of home and work locations for dual-earner households to study the intra-household allocation of commuting and its response to an increase in the number of jobs outside of Copenhagen. The chapter estimates a static version of the model for the Greater Copenhagen Area. The results suggest that the relocation of jobs affects locations of both residence and work and slightly reduces the intra-household difference in commute times and the gender wage gap. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Receptionen (26.0.20), Økonomisk Institut"
"Karolis Liaudinskas, Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-13";"11:00";"2020-01-13";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Loss of a Lending Relationship: Pain or Relief"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Loss of a Lending Relationship: Pain or Relief"" Abstract We estimate firms’ hold-up costs and bank-switching costs using loan-level data and a novel identification setting – bank closures. We find that after a financially distressed bank closed and its good borrowers were forced to switch, their borrowing costs dropped steeply and converged to the market’s average. We document no such effect when a healthy bank closed. This suggests that distressed banks may use informational monopoly power to hold up and exploit their good borrowers. The drop of borrowing costs reflects firms’ ex-ante hold-up costs and the lower bound of switching costs. To policy-makers this suggests potential benefits of bank closures. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Patrick Moran, University of Oxford (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-13";"13:00";"2020-01-13";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Breaking the Commitment Device: The Effect of Home Equity Withdrawal on Consumption, Saving, and Welfare"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Breaking the Commitment Device: The Effect of Home Equity Withdrawal on Consumption, Saving, and Welfare"" Abstract Financial innovation and deregulation have given households an unprecedented ability to access home equity. To what extent is this beneficial? On one hand, access to home equity enables households to better smooth consumption and self-insure against risk. On the other hand, if housing acts as a savings commitment device, then more liquidity may weaken commitment. In this paper, we evaluate the costs and benefits of greater access to home equity by estimating a model that captures these two opposing channels. Model estimates are validated using a reform that abruptly legalized home equity withdrawal in Texas. In both the data and the model, we observe a 3% increase in nondurable consumption following the reform. According to our estimates, weakened commitment and consumption smoothing each account for half of the observed increase in consumption. Finally, we find that the cost of weakened commitment dominates and that welfare has declined due to the introduction of home equity withdrawal. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Carola Müller, Norges Bank (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-14";"11:00";"2020-01-14";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 35.2.01), 1353 Kbh K";"""Basel III capital requirements and heterogeneous banks"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Basel III capital requirements and heterogeneous banks"" Abstract I study how the interaction of competing minimum capital requirements affects the allocation of market shares across banks with different productivity. Regulators face a trade-off between the efficient allocation of resources and financial stability. In my model, banks’ productivity determines their optimal strategy in oligopolistic markets. Constrained only by a risk-weighted capital ratio, high-productivity banks specialize on a less risky strategy with higher leverage. Hence, they are directly affected when a leverage ratio is added. Considering a productivity-driven charter value renders capital requirements indirectly aiming at high-productivity banks less effective at a distortionary cost: In order to compensate the higher costs due to the additional requirement banks reduce their loan supply and interest rates rise. As a result, new entrants with productivity below the level of incumbent banks are attracted and thus average productivity in the banking market decreases. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Luca Picariello, University of Naples Federico ll (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-15";"11:00";"2020-01-15";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Organizational design with Portable Skills"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Organizational design with Portable Skills"" Abstract Workers can move across firms and carry along portable human capital. I present a model where workers' talent is observable but task allocation is non-contractible. To reduce mobility firms may inefficiently match workers with tasks that reduce their outside option. I show that by organizing the firm as an equity-partnership, the efficient task allocation can be implemented and profits increase. This result is attained by shifting control rights to workers who become partners, decide over task allocation and earn dividends as compensation. This provides a new rationale for the widespread presence of firms organized as partnerships in human-capital intensive industries. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Maria Olsson, Uppsala University (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-15";"13:00";"2020-01-15";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Labor Cost Adjustments During the Great Recession"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Labor Cost Adjustments During the Great Recession"" Abstract This paper uses detailed Swedish micro-data to analyze how firms adjusted their labor costs in response to the large drop in aggregate demand during the Great Recession. For identification, I exploit the fact that the recession primarily hit export-dependent firms in Sweden. The results show that exposed firms were able to curb the rate of wage increases by a magnitude in line with existing micro-evidence of co-movements between individual firms' profits and their workers' wages (i.e. rent-sharing). In spite of this, I find that the dominant part of labor cost adjustments came through reductions in employment through separations into unemployment. For workers, the main source of earnings losses was therefore not the reductions in wages, but the increased rate of job-separations into unemployment. This suggests that wage rigidity contributes to unemployment and earnings fluctuations. Further evidence indicates that the exact details of wage-setting institutions affects the choice between wage and employment adjustments: workers covered by union contracts that provided individual workers with guaranteed wage increases experienced more separations in response to the fall in demand. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Antoine Bertheau, CREST (Center for Research in Economics and Statistics) Job Market Seminar";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-16";"11:00";"2020-01-16";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Identifying Core Parameters of Labor Market Models: Evidence from Unexpected Worker Separations"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Identifying Core Parameters of Labor Market Models: Evidence from Unexpected Worker Separations"" Abstract We document how the effects of exogenous shocks to firms’ employment on firm and worker outcomes jointly identify three central parameters of core models of the labor market: (i) the elasticity of output with respect to labor, (ii) the elasticity of labor supply, and (iii) the marginal value of a filled job, which corresponds to the cost of labor market frictions and turnover to the firm. Empirically, we draw on matched employer-employee data from Denmark and estimate the causal effect of unexpected worker separations, due to deaths, on firm and coworker outcomes. Our reduced-form results indicate temporary adverse effects on firms’ employment and output and positive ones on coworkers’ hours and earnings. We then show how these reduced-form effects identify the core parameters of a search-and-matching model. We estimate these parameters using IV, provide an original estimate for the costs of labor turnover, and quantify the role of adjustment of hours and wage within firms by performing several counterfactual experiments. Contact person: Morten Bennedsen"
"Anastasia Girshina, Stockholm School of Economics (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-17";"11:00";"2020-01-17";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"“Wealth, savings, and returns over the life cycle: the role of education”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"“Wealth, savings, and returns over the life cycle: the role of education” Abstract This paper studies the effect of education on wealth and wealth accumulation over the life cycle. The analysis relies on an administrative panel that reports educational attainment and detailed information on assets and liabilities of Swedish residents. To identify the causal effect of education, I employ three alternative identification strategies which rely on controlling for predetermined family background and ability, within-siblings variation in educational attainment, and a compulsory schooling reform. I find that education has a positive, large, and long-lasting effect on net worth. I further show that it affects all balance sheet components and that these effects vary over the life cycle. Finally, I document that the differences in wealth are driven by both higher savings and higher portfolio returns among the more educated, although their relative importance varies over time. My results have implications for theoretical work on optimal consumption-saving behavior and portfolio choice, as well as for fiscal and social security policy. Overall, the findings suggest that considering only wage returns to education greatly understates its economic implications. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Alexey Gorn, University of Cambridge (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-17";"13:00";"2020-01-17";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Assessing the (De)Stabilizing Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Assessing the (De)Stabilizing Effects of Unemployment Benefit Extensions"" Abstract We study the role of unemployment benefit extensions for aggregate labor market dynamics. We develop a tractable model with heterogeneous agents, search frictions and nominal rigidities. The model allows for both a destabilizing labor market channel and a stabilizing aggregate demand channel of unemployment insurance. The tractability of the model permits to investigate the workings of each channel in isolation. We find that both channels are quantitatively important and of similar magnitude: the aggregate demand channel marginally prevails when the model is calibrated to the U.S. economy. We also show that unemployment benefit extensions played a very limited role for unemployment dynamics during the Great Recession and its aftermath. Instead, we can explain the bulk of the increase in unemployment and its persistence with a combination of labor market shocks and a shock to the borrowing constraint faced by households. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Anne Sofie Beck Knudsen, Harvard University (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-20";"11:00";"2020-01-20";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Those Who Stayed: Selection and Cultural Change during the Age of Mass Migration"". Seminar arranged by The Department of Economics";"""Those Who Stayed: Selection and Cultural Change during the Age of Mass Migration"" Abstract This paper studies the cultural causes and consequences of mass emigration from Scandinavia in the 19th century. I test the hypothesis that people with individualistic traits were more likely to emigrate, because they faced lower costs of leaving established social networks behind. Data from population censuses and passenger lists confirm this hypothesis. Children who grew up in households with nonconformist naming practices, nuclear family structures, and weak ties to parents’ birthplaces were on average more likely to emigrate later in life. Selection was weaker under circumstances that reduced the social costs of emigration. This was the case with larger migration networks abroad, and in situations where people emigrated collectively. Based on these findings, I expect emigration to generate cultural change towards reduced individualism in migrant-sending locations, through a combination of initial compositional effects and intergenerational cultural transmission. This is confirmed in a cross-district setting with measures of actual cultural change over the medium and long run. Contact person: Jeanet Sinding Bentzen"
"Frikk Nesje, University of Oslo (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-21";"11:00";"2020-01-21";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Cross-dynastic intergenerational altruism”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Cross-dynastic intergenerational altruism” Abstract Decisions with long-term consequences require comparing utility derived from present consumption to future welfare. But can we infer socially relevant intertemporal preferences from saving behavior? I allow for a decomposition of the present generation's preference for the next generation into its dynastic and cross-dynastic counterparts, in the form of welfare weights on the next generation in the own dynasty and other dynasties. Welfare weights on other dynasties can be motivated by a concern for sustainability, or if descendants may move or marry outside the dynasty. With such cross-dynastic intergenerational altruism, savings for one's own descendants benefit present members of other dynasties, giving rise to preference externalities. I find that socially relevant intertemporal preferences may not be inferred from saving behavior if there is cross-dynastic intergenerational altruism. I also show that the external effect of present saving decreases over time. This means that intertemporal preferences inferred from saving behavior are time-inconsistent, unless cross-dynastic intergenerational altruism is accounted for. Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"Stefan Voigt, Vienna University of Economics and Business (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-21";"13:00";"2020-01-21";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Arbitrage, liquidity and price Informativeness"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Arbitrage, liquidity and price Informativeness"" Abstract Limits to arbitrage impose costs on cross-market trading and harm informational efficiency in fragmented markets. I quantify the impact of blockchain-related trading frictions that arise from the time-consuming settlement process in the market for Bitcoin. The estimation rests on an error correction model that exploits the notion that arbitrageurs suspend their activity when arbitrage costs exceed price differences. I estimate substantial arbitrage costs that explain 63% of the observed price differences, where more than 75% of these costs can be attributed to settlement latency. I also find that a 10 bp decrease in technology-related arbitrage costs simultaneously results in a 3 bp increase of the spreads. I embed this finding in a theoretical model in which liquidity providers set larger spreads to cope with the higher adverse selection risks imposed by increased arbitrage activity. Consequently, efforts to reduce the latency of blockchain-based settlement might have unintended consequences for liquidity provision. In markets with substantial adverse selection risk, reduced technology-related arbitrage costs may thus even harm informational efficiency. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Salomón García, University of Minnesota (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-22";"11:00";"2020-01-22";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"“Regulation and Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Regulation and Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market” Abstract I study the impact of policy interventions in the secondary mortgage market. I develop a quantitative general equilibrium model of financial intermediation that features adverse selection in the secondary market, and calibrate it to match key moments on the cross-section of the US mortgage origination market. With income and default rate shocks as observed in the data, the model accounts for two-thirds of the collapse of the mortgage market during the Great Recession. Policy interventions that compensate investors for losses from default and adverse selection are effective in stabilizing the mortgage market by reducing the volatility of prices and quantities. Borrower households benefit from stabilization through lower and less volatile mortgage rates but must pay higher taxes to finance the policy. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Has van Vlokhoven, Stockholm University";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-22";"13:00";"2020-01-22";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Estimating the Cost of Capital and the Profit Share"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Estimating the Cost of Capital and the Profit Share” Abstract Compensation of the factor of production capital is not directly observed since most firms own part of their capital stock. In this paper, I develop a new method to estimate capital compensation. I show how firms' input choices reveal the user cost of capital when firms minimize costs and produce according to a homogeneous production function. Subtracting estimated capital compensation together with all other observed costs from sales gives economic profits. Estimating the model using Compustat data, I find that the cost of capital has been declining, and that the profit share has been increasing over the past fifty years from around 4% of sales to around 8% of sales. The increase in the profit share coincides with the observed fall in the labor share, while I estimate the capital share to be falling as well. Therefore, the fall in the labor share is not due to an increased capital intensity, but due to an increase in profits. Furthermore, I find that the increase in profits is due to reallocation between firms, but not due to reallocation between industries. I also document that profits have become more back-loaded over the life cycle of the firm, which provides a potential explanation for the fall in firm entry. Finally, I find an upward trend in the returns to scale, which combined with the rise in profits implies that markups have been increasing. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Luca Mazzone, University of Zurich (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-23";"13:00";"2020-01-23";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Go Big or Buy a Home: Student Debt, Human Capital and Household Formation”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Go Big or Buy a Home: Student Debt, Human Capital and Household Formation” Abstract Do financial constraints affect human capital accumulation of young workers? Does student debt play a role in household formation? Using supply side variations in college aid policies, we empirically analyze the impact of student debt on post baccalaureate decisions. We find that student debt induces a front loading of earnings, an anticipation in household formation and has a negative and persistent effect on graduate school attendance. We then introduce and estimate a life cycle model with endogenous human capital accumulation, career choice and housing. Our results highlight the importance of differences in net wealth at labor market entry as determinants of long run human and physical capital accumulation. We also show that housing is fundamental to understand dynamics in career and enrollment choices over the life cycle. Finally, we compare alternative policy proposals. A widespread adoption of an income based repayment plan and a more ambitious forgiveness plan have similar effects, as both increase human capital accumulation, earnings growth, and postpone entry into homeownership. Contact person: Bertel Schjerning"
"Katarina Jensen, University of California, Berkeley (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-24";"11:00";"2020-01-24";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"“The Political Consequences of Immigration: Evidence from Refugee Shocks in Denmark”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“The Political Consequences of Immigration: Evidence from Refugee Shocks in Denmark” Abstract across but also within parties. In this article, I utilize the quasi-random allocation of refugees to Danish municipalities and subsequent settlement patterns to study how an inflow of refugees affects local politics within and across parties. Drawing on an administrative dataset consisting of the full population of political candidates for Danish municipal councils from 1993-2013, I show that in this setting, exogenous changes in the share of refugees do not change vote shares for far-right nor established parties. Instead, refugee migration causes more candidates with a low socioeconomic status (SES) to enter and be elected into politics. This effect is driven both by parties and voters: First, established parties place low-SES candidates higher on lists and switch to a party system, where individual candidate popularity, rather than party list position, determines election. Second, voters cast individual votes for these low-SES candidates. In a nationally representative survey experiment, I study what the election of low-SES candidates tells us about policy preferences. I find that voters’ preference for low-SES candidates can in part be explained by their increased preferences for redistribution toward economically vulnerable natives, which mirrors the preferences of low-SES candidates. The findings in this paper suggest that parties may be able to compete with the far right by including and promoting socioeconomically representative candidates and increasing voter influence over candidate selection. Contact person: Asger Lau Andersen"
"Daphné Skandalis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-27";"11:00";"2020-01-27";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Unemployment Insurance and Job Search Behavior”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Unemployment Insurance and Job Search Behavior” Abstract Unemployment insurance (UI) helps workers smooth their consumption at job loss and can affect their job search behavior. We shed light on the effect of UI on job search behavior using new longitudinal data: we track job applications sent on a major online search platform for 500,000 French unemployed workers. We show that, in the year before their benefits exhaustion, unemployed workers increase their search intensity and decrease their target wage. After exhaustion, they keep a relatively high search intensity and low target wage. This suggests that finite-duration UI has both a negative effect on unemployed workers’ search intensity and a positive effect on their target wage, and that these effects fade away over time—consistent with the predictions of the standard search model. Prior evidence seemingly inconsistent with these findings can largely be explained by dynamic selection and duration dependence. Our structural estimation shows that the standard search model fits our reduced-form estimates very well. The behavioral reference-dependent search model provides an even better fit, but with a small degree of reference-dependence that only slightly affects search behavior. Overall, our findings suggest that the standard search model provides a good approximation of the dynamic impact of UI on search behavior. Contact person: Mette Ejrnæs"
"Amalie Sofie Jensen, Princeton University (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-29";"14:00";"2020-01-29";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"“The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence From an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence From an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark” Abstract We study the effects of welfare generosity on international migration using a series of large changes in welfare benefits for immigrants in Denmark. The first change, implemented in 2002, lowered benefits for immigrants from outside the EU by about 50%, with no changes for natives or immigrants from inside the EU. The policy was later repealed and re-introduced. The differential treatment of immigrants from inside and outside the EU, and of different types of non-EU immigrants, allows for a quasi-experimental research design. We find sizeable effects: the benefit reduction reduced the net flow of immigrants by about 5,000 people per year, or 3.7 percent of the stock of treated immigrants, and the subsequent repeal of the policy reversed the effect almost exactly. Our study provides some of the first causal evidence on the widely debated “welfare magnet” hypothesis. While there are many non-welfare factors that matter for migration decisions, our evidence implies that, conditional on moving, the generosity of the welfare system is important for destination choices. Contact person: Niels Johannesen"
"Similan Rujiwattanapong, Aarhus University (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-30";"13:00";"2020-01-30";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Unemployment Dynamics and Endogenous Unemployment Insurance Extensions”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Unemployment Dynamics and Endogenous Unemployment Insurance Extensions” Abstract This paper investigates the impact of endogenous unemployment insurance (UI) extensions on the dynamics of unemployment and its duration structure in the US. Using a search and matching model with worker heterogeneity, I allow for the maximum UI duration to depend on unemployment and for UI benefits to depend on worker characteristics. UI extensions have a large effect on unemployment duration during the Great Recession via job search responses and a moderate effect on total unemployment via job separations. Disregarding rational expectations about the timing of UI extensions could imply an overestimation of the unemployment rate by over 2 percentage points. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Thomas Graeber, Harvard University (Job Market Seminar)";"The Department of Economics";"2020-01-31";"13:00";"2020-01-31";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Cognitive Uncertainty”. Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Cognitive Uncertainty” Abstract This paper introduces a formal definition and an experimental measurement of the concept of cognitive uncertainty: people’s subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. This concept allows us to bring together and partially explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice under ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations about economic variables. In each of these domains, behavior in experiments and surveys tends to be insensitive to variation in probabilities, as in the classical probability weighting function. Building on existing models of noisy Bayesian cognition, we formally propose that cognitive uncertainty generates these patterns by inducing people to compress probabilities towards a mental default of 50:50. We document experimentally that the responses of individuals with higher cognitive uncertainty indeed exhibit stronger compression of probabilities in choice under risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous manipulations of both cognitive uncertainty and the location of the mental default. The results provide causal evidence for the role of cognitive uncertainty in belief formation and choice, which we quantify through structural estimations. Contact person: Johan Lagerlöf and Marco Piovesan"
"The hidden history of Burma: Race, Capitalism, and the Crisis of Democracy in the 21st Century";"University of Copenhagen";"2020-02-12";"14:30";"2020-02-12";"17:00";"Chr. Hansen Auditorium 34.0.01, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen. Entrance from Bartholinsgade 4-6 is recommended.";"Public talk by historian, former diplomat, and presidential advisor, Thant Myint-U on his book ‘The hidden history of Burma: Race, Capitalism, and the Crisis of Democracy in the 21st Century’.";" University of Copenhagen is pleased to host a public talk by historian, former diplomat, and presidential advisor, Thant Myint-U on his book ‘The hidden history of Burma: Race, Capitalism, and the Crisis of Democracy in the 21st Century’. Finn Tarp, professor in Development Economics, will moderate the talk. About the book In his book Thant Myint-U makes an insider’s diagnosis of a country at a breaking point, he dissects how a singularly predatory economic system, fast-rising inequality, disintegrating state institutions, the impact of new social media, the rise of China next door, climate change, and deep-seated feelings around race, religion, and national identity all came together to challenge the incipient democracy. Interracial violence soared and a horrific exodus of hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees fixed international attention. Myint-U explains how and why this happened, and details an unsettling prognosis for the future. Burma is today a fragile stage for nearly all the world’s problems. Are democracy and an economy that genuinely serves all its people possible in Burma? In clear and urgent prose, Myint-U explores this question―a concern not just for the Burmese but for the rest of the world―warning of the possible collapse of this nation of 55 million while suggesting a fresh agenda for change. Programme 14:30-15:00: Refreshments 15:00-16:00: Talk by Thant Myint-U. Moderator: Finn Tarp 16:00-17:00: Q&A Copies of the book will be available for purchase. "
"SODAS Data Discussion w/ Rebecca Adler-Nissen, Kristin Anabel Eggeling & Kelton Ray Minor";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-02-21";"11:00";"2020-02-21";"12:00";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) is pleased to announce the third SODAS Data Discussion of this spring where three presenters will present their work. ";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. We are going to kick off the spring semester with three presenters. The first work to be presented is by Professor in Political Science, Rebecca Adler-Nissen, and Postdoc at the Department of Political Science, Kristin Anabel Eggeling. They are followed by PhD at the Department of Economics and SODAS, Kelton Ray Minor. Kelton Ray Minor: Nocturnal Warming and Human Behaviour Nighttime air temperatures are rising globally compared to local historical averages. Far more is known about heat effects on daytime human activity compared to nocturnal behaviour. Here we link millions of multi-night activity measurements from commercial wearable devices spanning 68 countries to local daily meteorological data from 2015 to 2017. Rising temperatures alter human rest. Coupling historical behavioural measurements with output from global climate models, we project behavioural impacts into the future. Our findings are relevant for adaptation policy and planning, and indicate a specific behavioural pathway through which rising temperatures impact global public health and downstream behaviours. Rebecca Adler-Nissen & Kristin Anabel Eggeling: Tweeting Diplomacy: Why We Need a Practice Approach in Social Data Science What happens when a diplomat tweets? The increasing activity of diplomats and heads of state on social media platforms such as Twitter has led scholars to argue that diplomacy, one of the fundamental institutions of global politics, has ‘gone digital’. Much of this literature argues that digital media make state-to-state interactions more public and transparent, thus rendering back-room negotiations and stiff diplomatic protocol increasingly obsolete. Investigating these dynamics with and among European Union diplomats in Brussels, however, we find that local interpretations and use patterns of social media platforms differ and diverge considerably. While some practitioners embrace new communication tools as outlets to build their profiles as competent negotiators, others contemplate fatigue with constant communication, information overflow and breaches of confidentiality. Our ambition with this paper is to assess how digital practices like tweeting become part of the diplomatic repertoire. To do so, we draw practice theory, with its sensitivity to lived experience, practical doings, and material mediation, into social data science and its emphasis on ‘big [diplomatic] data’. What we need, we argue, is not social-data science, but social data-science: we need to treat data-science as a social science, and digital data as social data. Similar to Geertz’s wink or Barthes’ image, digital data points are polysemous, their meaning(s) depend on the processes and contexts of their production, as well as their social (including academic) interpretation. Unpacking the social in social data science through a practice-lens is promising, as it helps overcome a problematic dichotomy: that of the separateness of the ‘online’ and the ‘offline’, the ‘digital’ and the ‘analogue’ world. This move is both theoretical and methodological. First, it shows how, sociologically speaking, an instance like a diplomatic tweet does not exist independently from the contexts that produce it. Second, overcoming such binaries requires a research strategy that pays equal attention to what is happening both on diplomats’ twitter accounts and behind the phone screens that feed them. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2ndfloor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"SODAS Pop-up Talk w/ Pantelis Pipergias Analytis";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-02-26";"14:00";"2020-02-26";"15:00";"CSS, Room 1.2.26.";"SODAS Pop-up Talk with Assistant Professor at the Danish-IAS at the University of Southern Denmark, Pantelis P. Analytis.";" Pantelis P. Analytis is an Assistant Professor at the Danish-IAS at the University of Southern Denmark (SDU). Before joining the University of Southern Denmark he worked as a predoctoral researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and as a postdoctoral researcher at the Computer and Information Science departments at Cornell University in Ithaca. He has a background in economics and cognitive psychology and is self-taught in machine learning, computational social science and a few other disciplines. In his research, Pantelis develops mathematical and computational models of individual and collective behavior and uses experiments, big-data and large-scale simulations to assess their descriptive and prescriptive value. The structure of social influence in recommender networks The ability of people to influence the opinion of others on matters of taste varies greatly---both in the offline world and in recommender systems. What are the mechanisms underlying this striking inequality? We use the weighted k-nearest-neighbor algorithm to represent an array of social learning strategies and show---using network theory---how this gives rise to networks of social influence in six real-world domains of taste. By doing so, we show three novel results that apply both to offline advice taking and online recommender settings. First, influential individuals have mainstream tastes and high dispersion in their taste similarity with others. Second, the fewer people an individual or algorithm consults (i.e., the lower k) and the more sensitive an individual or algorithm is to how similar other people are, the smaller the group of people with substantial influence. Third, the influence networks that emerge are hierarchically organized. Our results shed new light on classic empirical findings in communication and network science and can help improve our understanding of social influence in the offline and online world. The SODAS Pop-up Talk will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm Wednesday the 26th of February 2020. If you have questions or want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk "
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium #9  - Økonomernes krystalkugle";"Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet ";"2020-02-27";"16:00";"";"18:00";"CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) ";"Økonomernes krystalkugle";"Økonomisk Eksploratorium#9 Økonomernes krystalkugle Torsdag den 27. februar kl. 16-18 i CSS, 26.3.21 (Frokoststuen) Vil Danmark fortsat være rigere end Kenya i år 2100? Vil Kina være demokratisk? Hvad er de langsigtede økonomiske konsekvenser af eventuelle fremtidige verdenskrige, naturkatastrofer og pandemier? Med udgangspunkt i deres egen forskning guider Asger Wingender, Casper Worm, Marc Klemp og Jeanet Sinding Bentzen til historiske data og naturlige eksperimenter. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet er vært for Økonomisk Eksploratorium. Hvert semester afholder vi et månedligt arrangement med et tema, som tager afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet.Med arrangementerne åbner vi dørene ind til ind forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi bliver brugt i samfundet. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for studerende, ansatte og alle andre med interesse i økonomi. Det er muligheden for at møde vores forskere uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Økonomisk Eksploratorium foregår på en niveau, hvor alle kan være med og hvor der er plads til spørgsmål og dialog. Instituttet sørger for rigelige mængder kaffe og kage. Vi glæder os til at se dig! Bedste hilsner Jane & Susanne - på vegne på instituttet og Politrådet"
"SODAS Pop-up Talk w/ Alexander Volfovsky ";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-03-09";"11:00";"2020-03-09";"12:00";"CSS, Room 1.2.26.";"SODAS Pop-up Talk with Assistant Professor of Statistical Science at Duke University, Alexander Volfovsky.";" Alexander Volfovsky is an Assistant Professor of Statistical Science at Duke University. He is interested in theory and methodology for network analysis, causal inference and statistical/computational tradeoffs and in applications in the social sciences. His research is concerned with developing theory and methodological tools for approaching such modern data structures by better understanding these underlying dependence structures. His primary applied interest is in the health and social sciences with past and ongoing collaborations studying friendship formation in high schools, employment outcomes for college graduates and job mobility as a function of an underlying social network. Online experimentation for studying political polarization Social media sites are often blamed for exacerbating political polarization by creating “echo chambers” that prevent people from being exposed to information that contradicts their preexisting beliefs. We conducted a field experiment during which a large group of Democrats and Republicans followed bots that retweeted messages by elected officials and opinion leaders with opposing political views. Republican participants expressed substantially more conservative views after following a liberal Twitter bot, while Democrats’ attitudes became slightly more liberal after following a conservative Twitter bot—although this effect was not statistically significant. As part of a follow up to this experiment we study the impact of the Russian Internet Research Agency's (IRA) online influence campaign. We find no evidence that interacting with the IRA accounts substantially impacted 6 political attitudes and behaviors. Descriptively, interactions with trolls were most common among individuals who use Twitter frequently, have strong social-media “echo chambers,” and high interest in politics. Motivated by these studies we introduce new, easily implementable designs for drawing causal inference from randomized experiments on networks with interference. Inspired by the idea of matching in observational studies, we introduce the notion of considering a treatment assignment as a ""quasi-coloring"" on a graph. For studying direct treatment effects we show that a perfect quasi-coloring strives to match every treated unit on a given network with a distinct control unit that has identical number of treated and control neighbors. For a wide range of interference functions encountered in applications, we show both by theory and simulations that the classical Neymanian estimator for the direct effect has desirable properties for our designs. The SODAS Pop-up Talk will take place at SODAS in building 1, 2nd floor, room 26 (1.2.26) of the CSS Campus, University of Copenhagen, from 11:00 am - 12:00 noon Monday the 9th of March 2020."
"Martin Ravallion, Georgetown University";"The Department of Economics";"2020-03-10";"13:00";"2020-03-10";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Last Three Percent"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Last Three Percent"" Abstract There is a little-noticed but important difference between the World Bank’s original goal for poverty reduction and the subsequent UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG). The Bank’s goal was a 3% poverty rate by 2030, while the SDG is to “eradicate” poverty by 2030. A simple linear projection of current progress against extreme poverty in the world does suggest that we are on track to attaining the UN’s goal. However, linear projection is deceptive if development does not reach the poorest as effectively. There are a priori reasons why the last few percent could be harder to reach with current development policies. Consistently with that hypothesis, the paper documents recent signs of a levelling off in progress for the poorest in East Asia—the star performer regionally over the longer term. This levelling off is also found on average for the 18 developing countries that have reduced their poverty rate from over 10% (around the current global rate) to under 3% during 1981-2017. Similarly, to East Asia, progress in reaching the poorest declined once the last 3% had been reached, though some countries did better than others. This suggests that “business as usual” (even by the standards of the relatively successful countries) will not suffice to eradicate extreme poverty. Contact person: Casper Worm"
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium #10 Finansiering. CANCELLED";"Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet ";"2020-03-19";"16:00";"";"18:00";"CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) ";"#10 Finansiering";" Opsparing i aktier udløser gevinster og tab.Påvirkes pensionens størrelse, eller er det forbruget her og nu, der giver sig? Bliver der omsat for meget i aktiemarkedet, og kan en transaktionsskat være velfærdsforbedrende? Er udviklingen i kronekursen kædet sammen med usikkerhed om den makroøkonomiske politik? Mød Asger Lau Andersen, Michael Bergman og Peter Norman Sørensen. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet er vært for Økonomisk Eksploratorium. Hvert semester afholder vi et månedligt arrangement med et tema, som tager afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet.Med arrangementerne åbner vi dørene ind til ind forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi bliver brugt i samfundet. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for studerende, ansatte og alle andre med interesse i økonomi. Det er muligheden for at møde vores forskere uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Økonomisk Eksploratorium foregår på en niveau, hvor alle kan være med og hvor der er plads til spørgsmål og dialog. Instituttet sørger for rigelige mængder kaffe og kage. Vi glæder os til at se dig! Bedste hilsner Jane & Susanne - på vegne på instituttet og Politrådet "
"Leonardo Melosi, Chicago FED: CANCELLED";"Copenhagen Macro Distinguished Seminar";"2020-03-25";"13:00";"2020-03-25";"14:15";"TBA";"Copenhagen Macro Distinguished Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";" Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Katrine Marie Tofthøj Jakobsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut";"2020-03-26";"16:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut";"Ph.d.-forsvar";"Katrine Marie Tofthøj Jakobsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Impact of Taxation on Household Behavior: Evidence from Danish Administrative Data"". Titel: ""Impact of Taxation on Household Behavior: Evidence from Danish Administrative Data"". Tid og sted 26. marts 2020 kl. 16:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Niels Johannesen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Sebastian Siegloch, University of MannheimLektor David Jinkins, CBS Abstract This thesis consists of three self-contained research papers in public finance. They can be read independently but share two common features. First, they study how different types of taxation schemes affect and shape the economic behavior of households, and second, they utilize the rich Danish administrative data. Chapter 1 studies the effects of wealth taxation on wealth accumulation. Denmark used to impose one of the world’s highest marginal tax rates on household wealth, but this tax was greatly reduced in 1989 and abolished in 1996. We exploit this reduction to estimate the short and medium run effects of wealth taxes on wealth accumulation. We build and calibrate a simple life cycle model that allows us to simulate the long-run effects of wealth taxes. The chapter is co-authored with Kristian Jakobsen, Henrik Kleven, and Gabriel Zucman. Chapter 2 revisits the estimation of the elasticity of taxable income, which is a key parameter for assessing the efficiency costs of personal income taxes. We show that the state-of-the-art estimation strategy is, in essence, a triple difference estimation. This insight makes the key identifying assumption clear, and we show how this underlying assumption can be validated econometrically and graphically. We illustrate our new approach by using tax and benefit reforms in Denmark. The chapter is co-authored with Jakob Egholt Søgaard. Chapter 3 studies the effect of a reduction in a tax on new car registrations on households’ choice of car and car prices in Denmark. New cars are taxed the first time they are first registered in Denmark, and this tax was reduced for medium and large cars in November 2015. I utilize this tax reduction as a natural experiment and I find that households respond by purchasing new cars with higher pre-tax values and quality levels, not by purchasing more cars. Second, the tax reduction is completely passed on to consumers such that households buying a new car reaps the full benefit of the reduction. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Charlotte.Jespersen@econ.ku.dk"
"Data Science Evening";"Socioøkonomisk Samfund";"2020-04-07";"17:00";"2020-04-07";"19:00";"CSS, room 35.01.06";"Come and join an interesting event about data science related to the social sciences.";"Come and join an interesting event about data science related to the social sciences. This time we are joined by two prominent speakers: A senior data scientist of Danmarks Nationalbank will discuss real-world applications and complex issues where the Danish central bank employs a Machine Learning approach. A ph.d fellow at the Center of Social Data Science analyzing data streams created on the internet and by our mobile phones will present his research on discriminating algorithms and their implications to society. Along with our event partners at Djøf we are excited to welcome you to an evening of fun and informal exploration of data science with snacks and drinks provided. The program is: 5:00 pm - Snacks, drinks and networking5:15 pm - Welcoming by 'Socialøkonomisk Samfund'5:15 pm - Talk by Kristoffer Pade Glavind, ph.d. fellow at SODAS6:00 pm - Break6:15 pm - Talk by Alessandro Martinello, senior data scientist at Danmarks Nationalbank6:45 pm - Q&A’s from the auditorium and concluding the event Please register using the link to DJØF. The event is free for both members and non-members of DJØF. You can read more about the event her."
"Frederik Plesner Lyngse forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-04-16";"13:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut";"Frederik Plesner Lyngse forsvarer sin afhandling: ""Essays in Health Economics: Supply and Demand"".";"Frederik Plesner Lyngse forsvarer sin afhandling: ""Essays in Health Economics: Supply and Demand"" Kandidat Frederik Plesner Lyngse Titel ""Essays in Health Economics: Supply and Demand"" Tid og sted 16. april 2020 kl. 13:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Mette Gørtz, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Petter Lundborg, Lund Universitet Lektor Fane Naja Groes, CBS Abstract This thesis comprises three self-contained chapters. While the chapters are somewhat different, they all share some common denominators. First, they all address supply or demand in the healthcare sector. Second, they all exploit unique data sources. Third, they all address inequality and are relevant for policy.In Chapter 1: “How Does Payday Affect Prescription Drug Purchases? Evidence from Danish Welfare Benefit Recipients”, I show that individuals on welfare benefits are liquidity constrained by the end of the month to a degree that they postpone purchasing prescription drugs and thereby delaying treatment that should not be delayed. I find clear evidence of purchasing sensitivity around transfer income payday and show that liquidity constraints is a key operating mechanism for why individuals living off welfare benefits postpone filling antibiotic prescriptions. These results indicate that out-of-pocket costs for medical treatment leads to inequality in access to timely treatment across socio economic groupsIn Chapter 2: “Collusion among Specialist Physicians: Evidence from Narrative and Administrative Data”, I exploit a policy change that introduced cost-control incentives in provider contracts for independent physician clinics providing services to public patients in Denmark that introduced incentives for collusion among the physician clinics. I document the internal organization of a trade industry organization colluding by dividing the market according to firm-specific quotas. They enforce the quotas by sending out e-mails calling for a production reduction in order to keep public reimbursement fees as high as possible. I show that physicians respond to these e-mails by decreasing production of public patients — both in revenue and number of patients treated. I further demonstrate spillovers in the form of increased treatment of private patients fully offsetting the production decrease of public patients.In Chapter 3: “Early Labor Market Circumstances and Gender Gaps in Life Time Career Opportunities”, written together with Torben Heien Nielsen and Itzik Fadlon, we investigate how early career circumstances determine long run labor market opportunities differentially for males and females. To do so, we exploit a lottery affecting the first job for physicians just graduated from medical school. We show that initial unluck in the labor market affects women negatively in their long run career opportunities, while men are unaffected. In particular, we find that unlucky women are less likely to invest in additional human capital and more likely to reside in a rural area. Further, we investigate three mechanisms potentially influencing these results. These results imply that males and females respond to adverse circumstances early in the career differentially, implying an inequality across the two sexes. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Charlotte.Jespersen@econ.ku.dk"
"Essay-konkurrence - Corona set med økonomifaglige briller";"Initiativtager og tovholder er Kristian Engberg. Han er 4. semesterstuderende på Institut for Antropologi. Send ide/titel til kws217@alumni.ku.dk ";"2020-04-21";"";"2020-07-01";"";"Dit hjemme-Corona-kontor";"KONKURRENCE: få udgivet dit essay om Coronakrisen set gennem dine faglige briller og vind et legat på 3.000 kr. ";"KONKURRENCE: få udgivet dit essay om Coronakrisen set gennem dine faglige briller og vind et legat på 3.000 kr. Midt i Coronakarantænen har et studenterinitiativ spredt sig på Københavns Universitet. Essay-konkurrencen ”Corona set med faglige briller” er også nået til os på Økonomisk Institut. ”Studieleder Thomas Markussen udlodder 3.000,- til en pris til den bedste essayskriver. ”Der er en lang række økonomiske aspekter af corona krisen, som trænger til at blive belyst, og med denne essaykonkurrence håber jeg at vi kan indhente en masse spændende overvejelser fra vores mere end 2,000 studerende”, siger studieleder Thomas Markussen. Rektor Henrik Wegner støtter også studenterinitiativet, der skal munde ud i en essaysamling, hvor vi håber alle KUs fagligheder vil være repræsenteret. ”Der er ingen tvivl om, at både studerendes gode idéer, refleksioner og kompetencer sammen med forskningen kommer til at spille en stor rolle i samfundet nu og på den anden side af corona-epidemien,” siger Henrik Wegner Initiativtager og tovholder er Kristian Engberg. Han er 4. semesterstuderende på Institut for Antropologi: ”Vi er alle sammen midt i et stykke Danmarkshistorie, vi endnu ikke aner hvor ender. Lad os sammen skrive dette kapitel, mens det hele sker rundt om ørerne på os – jeg kan ikke finde mere fantastisk motivation til at spidse pennen,” siger han og understreger, at tanken ikke er streng videnskabelighed eller strikse formkrav. ”Det vigtige er, at du bringer din faglighed i spil – og det kan du sagtens gøre uden en formel indledning med problemformulering, analyse, diskussion, konklusion og litteraturliste. Du er naturligvis velkommen til at gribe opgaven an som et eksamensessay – men kan også blot skrive frit fra leveren. Uvidenskabelige, causserende og subjektive bidrag er særdeles velkomne” siger Kristian Engberg. Hvad kræver det? Essayets omfang Op til 13.000 anslag (inkl. mellemrum)Ingen minimumskrav, da et essay sagtens kan være alt fra en skarp observation over en velformuleret strøtanke til en dyberegående analyse. Formelle krav Du er velkommen til at inkludere en litteraturliste, men det er ikke et krav. Essayet er ikke strengt videnskabeligt, men i lige så høj grad din egen analyse og refleksioner. Tilmelding + pitch Send ide/titel til kws217@alumni.ku.dk For at undgå flere essays om præcist samme emne, beder vi dig vende din ide til emnet eller overskriften med redaktionen. Hvem kan deltage? Alle studerende på KU kan deltage. Og derfor er du, som er polit-studerende, inviteret til at deltage. Dommerkomité Den ligger ikke helt fast endnu. Vi arbejder på sagen. Deadline, final essay 1. juli 2020Send dit essay til kws217@alumni.ku.dkHerefter sendes indsendte essays i anonymiseret form til dommerkomiteen. "
"CANCELLED:Økonomisk Eksploratorium #11 Direkte indflydelse i råd og kommissioner";"Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet ";"2020-04-23";"16:00";"";"18:00";"CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) ";"Direkte indflydelse i råd og kommissioner";"Økonomisk Eksploratorium#11 Direkte indflydelse i råd og kommissionerTorsdag den 23. april kl. 16-18 i CSS, 26.3.21 (Frokoststuen) De er med til at sætte kursen på beslutninger i dansk politik. Deres faglighed er stærk og derfor trækkes de ind i råd og kommissioner. De har titlerne Overvismand, Formand for Konkurrencerådet, Særlig sagkyndig i det Miljøøkonomiske Råd og Medlem af Ydelseskommissionen. Mød Carl-Johan Dalgaard, Christian Schultz, Mogens Fosgerau og Mette Ejrnæs til en snak om hverdagen i magtens korridorer. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet er vært for Økonomisk Eksploratorium. Hvert semester afholder vi et månedligt arrangement med et tema, som tager afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet.Med arrangementerne åbner vi dørene ind til ind forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi bliver brugt i samfundet. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for studerende, ansatte og alle andre med interesse i økonomi. Det er muligheden for at møde vores forskere uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Økonomisk Eksploratorium foregår på en niveau, hvor alle kan være med og hvor der er plads til spørgsmål og dialog. Instituttet sørger for rigelige mængder kaffe og kage. Vi glæder os til at se dig! Bedste hilsner Jane & Susanne - på vegne på instituttet og Politrådet"
"Virtual SODAS Pop-up Talk w/ Robert Dorschel";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-04-28";"11:00";"2020-04-28";"12:00";"Zoom";"Virtual SODAS Pop-up Talk with PhD student at the Department of Sociology and member of Darwin College at the University of Cambridge, Robert Dorschel. ";" Robert Dorschel is a PhD candidate at the Department of Sociology and member of Darwin College at the University of Cambridge. He conducts research in the fields of labour, culture and social theory. His dissertation focuses on the class of digital professionals. Deploying qualitative methods, he analyses the social practices and identities of tech workers and entrepreneurs in the European digital economy. The Ambivalent Construction of Data Scientists: Discovering the World of Digital Professionals So far, few sociological inquiries have been undertaken into the labour market segments of high-skilled digital professionals. This talk explores the rising profession of data scientists through the eyes of the economic and academic field. Based on a discourse analysis of data science job ads and study programs, I will address the question of how data scientists are externally constructed. In recurrence to the social theories of Bourdieu and Foucault, I will argue that the academic and economic discourses on data science follow a social logic of ambiguity. The discursive field is structured by different as well as common imaginations of what kind of subjects data scientists ought to be. The discursive ambiguity is then not interpreted as a weak spot but rather as a strategic advantage of data scientists vis-à-vis competing occupations. It is argued that ambiguity serves as a form of capital in the wake of digital transformations. The talk will conclude with a contextualisation of data scientists within the wider labour market segment of digital professionals. The virtual SODAS Pop-up Talk will take place at SODAS in Zoom from 11:00 am - 12:00 noon Tuesday the 28th of April 2020. If you want to attend the event or just want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk "
"Rasmus Bisgaard Larsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-04-28";"15:00";"";"";"";"Rasmus Bisgard Larsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Essays in Macroeconomics: Consumption Behavior, Price Dynamics, and Fiscal Spending""";"Rasmus Bisgard Larsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Essays in Macroeconomics: Consumption Behavior, Price Dynamics, and Fiscal Spending"" Kandidat Rasmus Bisgaard Larsen Titel ""Essays in Macroeconomics: Consumption Behavior, Price Dynamics, and Fiscal Spending"""".Charlotte.Jespersen@econ.ku.dk Tid og sted 28. april 2020 kl. 15:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Søren Leth-Petersen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Lektor Céline Poilly, Universitet Aix-Marseille Lektor Luigi Paciello, EIEF Abstract: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters in the field of macroeconomics. The first chapter studies the effects of households’ income on the quality of their purchases using household-level scanner data. By exploiting the randomized disbursement timing of the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008, we show that households not only increase their spending but also tilt spending toward products of higher quality when they receive a temporary transfer of money. In addition, we document that consumption responses are heterogeneous across the income distribution. We build and calibrate a buffer-stock model, which rationalizes these consumption patterns. The chapter is co-authored with Christoffer Jessen Weissert. The second chapter investigates how regional changes in government spending affect local retail prices by using retail scanner data from the United States. I estimate the effects of spending components from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and Department of Defense contracts. Estimates from both sources show that retail prices respond positively to an increase in government spending. I provide evidence, which indicate that this cannot be accounted for by changes in retailers’ marginal costs. The third chapter provides evidence indicating that U.S. house prices increase in the face of positive shocks to government spending. This response is not consistent with the predictions by a large variety of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. To address this problem, we devise and estimate a model with endogenous firm entry and love of variety effects. These features generate increasing returns to scale, which enables the model to generate an increase in house prices after a positive shock to government spending. The chapter is co-authored with Søren Hove Ravn and Emiliano Santoro. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Charlotte.Jespersen@econ.ku.dk "
"Adam Sheridan, Department of Economics";"ØI Virtual Covid-19 Seminar &#8203;arranged by the Department of Economics";"2020-04-30";"11:00";"2020-04-30";"11:45";"Via Zoom - Contact Casper Worm Hansen for a Zoom link to this seminar";"""Consumer Reponses to the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from Bank Account Transaction Data"". ØI Virtual Covid-19 Seminar ​arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Consumer Reponses to the COVID-19 Crisis: Evidence from Bank Account Transaction Data"" Abstract This paper uses transaction-level customer data from the largest bank in Denmark to estimate consumer responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and the partial shutdown of the economy. We find that aggregate card spending has dropped sharply by around 25% following the shutdown. The drop is mostly concentrated on goods and services whose supply is directly restricted by the shutdown, suggesting a limited role for spillovers to non-restricted sectors through demand in the short term. The spending drop is somewhat larger for individuals more exposed to the economic risks and health risks introduced by the COVID-19 crisis; however, pre-crisis spending shares in the restricted sectors is a much stronger correlate of spending responses. Via Zoom - Contact Casper Worm Hansen for a Zoom link to this seminar "
"Sonja Settele, University of Copenhagen";"ØI Virtual Covid-19 Seminar &#8203;arranged by the Department of Economics";"2020-05-07";"11:00";"2020-05-07";"11:45";"Via Zoom - Contact Casper Worm Hansen for a Zoom link to this seminar";"""Cost-Benefit Considerations and the Support for Public Health Measures: Evidence from the Covid-19"". ØI Virtual Covid-19 Seminar ​arranged by the Department of Economics ";"""Cost-Benefit Considerations and the Support for Public Health Measures: Evidence from the Covid-19"" Abstract We study the extent to which individuals take into account the perceived economic costs and health benefits of a ``lockdown'' of economic activity when forming their preferences about the optimal degree and duration of such interventions in the context of the Covid-19 crisis. In a large-scale online survey experiment, with a representative sample of the US population of more than 8,000 respondents, we induce exogenous variation in the perceived economic costs of shutting down the economy based on a randomized information treatment. In addition, we vary the assumed health benefits of shutdowns in an orthogonal treatment condition, by presenting the survey respondents with randomized (hypothetical but realistic) future scenarios under which longer durations of lockdowns are associated with fewer projected Covid-19 fatalities. Our evidence suggests that individuals indeed trade off perceived costs and benefits between the economic and the health domain, suggesting a potentially powerful role for information campaigns in generating support for non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate the spread of the virus. Via Zoom - Contact Casper Worm Hansen for a Zoom link to this seminar "
"Morten Bennedsen, University of Copenhagen";"ØI Virtual Covid-19 Seminar &#8203;arranged by the Department of Economics";"2020-05-07";"11:45";"2020-05-07";"12:30";"Via Zoom - Contact Casper Worm Hansen for a Zoom link to this seminar";"""COVID19: Firm consequences and crisis management. Survey evidence from Danish small and medium sized enterprises"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""COVID19: Firm consequences and crisis management. Survey evidence from Danish small and medium sized enterprises​"" Via Zoom - Contact Casper Worm Hansen for a Zoom link to this seminar"
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium - Corona Special # 2";"Økonomisk Institut";"2020-05-14";"16:00";"";"17:00";"Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64581422488";"";" Vi måtte lukke ned for programmet for foråret, allerede inden vi fik skudt det i gang på grund af Coronakrisen. Til gengæld har vi kastet os over studier i Coronakrisens samfundsmæssige konsekvenser, og vi deler vores viden. Vi har lancerer derfor nu Økonomisk Eksploratorium - Corona Special. Vi har afholdt #1 og nu er vi klar med nummer #2: ØKONOMISK EKSPLORATORIUM - CORONA SPECIAL #2 14 maj 16:00 - 17:00. På Zoom via det her link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64581422488 Niels Johannsen, Asger Lau Andersen, Adam Sheridan, Emil Toft Hansen: Consumer responses to the Covid-19 crisis. Evidence from bank account transaction data Martin Gonzales Eiras: The optimal lockdown during an epidemic Paolo Falco og Sarah Zaccagni: Promoting social distancing in the time of COVID-19: Beyond the Good Intentions Vi deler viden men skærer kagen fra Vi ville ønske vi kunne bringe kaffe og kage til alle deltagere som vi plejer, når I er med i Økonomisk Eksploratorium. Men det bliver alligevel for kompliceret. Til gengæld deler vi helt frisk viden om den nyeste forskning i Corona-krisens indvirkning på samfundet."
"Virtual SODAS Data Discussion w/ Kristoffer Albris, Morten Axel Pedersen & Anders Blok";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-05-15";"11:00";"2020-05-15";"12:00";"Zoom";"Join us for the first Virtual SODAS Data Discussion of the spring semester where Kristoffer Albris and Morten Axel Pedersen will present their work on the DISTRACT project. They are followed by Anders Blok who will tell about green communities in the cities. ";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Assistant Professor at Department of Anthropology, Kristoffer Albris, and Deputy Director of SODAS and Professor of Anthropology, Morten Axel Pedersen, will present to us their work on the ERC funded project, DISTRACT. They are followed by Associate Professor at Department of Sociology, Anders Blok, who will present his work on green communities in the cities. Morten Axel Pedersen & Kristoffer Albris: DISTRACT: Combining Data Science and Social Science Methods and Research Techniques In this data discussion we will present the newly started ERC project DISTRACT – The Political Economy of Distraction in Digitized Denmark. While the substantial aspect of the project concerns the ever more alluring distractions of human attention in the age of smartphones and other digitized technologies, this presentation will focus on the project’s methodological aspirations, namely to combine data science tools and established social science forms of analysis. We present the four subprojects that make up DISTRACT, and how they each attempt to employ methods and research techniques from the quali-quant continuum. Anders Blok: The place of greening: comparing civic engagement scenes of urban natures in Denmark via digital methods In this paper, we deploy digital methods to map out the engagement styles, inter-group co-engagement networks, and wider socio-geographical value landscapes of 130 grassroots- and volunteer-based urban green communities across the four largest cities in Denmark: Aalborg, Odense, Aarhus, and Copenhagen. In doing so, we develop the concept of ‘civic engagement scenes’, in dialogue with recent moves in cultural and political sociology meant to capture different patterns of civic coordination, adding to this a specific interest in how such civic styles give rise to particular patterns of material, emplaced, and socio-spatial co-engagement. This descriptive analysis, we argue, in turn help forge new comparative hypotheses as concerns the key factors involved in producing specific civic urban nature agendas in specific cities, hence aiding in attempts to specify key varieties of civic urban natures and their forms of governance. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you want to attend the event or just want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"Jonas Lau-Jensen Hirani forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-05-18";"13:00";"";"";"";"Jonas Lau-Jensen Hirani forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Universal Child Policies, Child Development and Parental Behavior""";"Jonas Lau-Jensen Hirani forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Universal Child Policies, Child Development and Parental Behavior"" Kandidat Jonas Lau-Jensen Hirani Titel ""Universal Child Policies, Child Development and Parental Behavior""Tid og sted 18. maj 2020 kl. 13:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64530315257 Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Casper Worm Hansen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Aline Bütikofer, Norwegian School of Economics, Norge Professor Emma Tominey, University of York, UK Abstract: This dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters. Each chapter can be read independently but jointly they contribute to the understanding of the interactions between parental behavior and public policies in shaping child development. Chapter 1 studies one of the first universal child policies in Denmark, which was a family planning program introduced in 1939 as a political response to decades of declining fertility and widespread use of illegal abortions. The results show that access to family planning increased non-marital fertility while marital fertility was unaffected. Chapter 2 investigates the contemporary nurse home visiting program for infants in Denmark. Using a national nurse strike in 2008, the chapter studies how the timing of nurse visits impacts child and maternal health. The findings show that earlier nurse visits are relatively more influential for child and maternal health. Chapter 3 studies parental responses to vaccination reminder letters in the Danish Childhood Vaccination Program. While reminder letters positively affect adherence, 72 % of non-adherent parents are non-responsive to reminders. This finding indicates that reluctance, and not inattention, is the leading cause for non-adherence in this setting. Chapter 4 explores the interaction between the nurse home visiting program and other preventive care programs for infants in Denmark. Specifically, the chapter studies if nurses during home visits encourage parental health investments measured as take-up of vaccinations and GP health checks. The chapter provides evidence that parents are more likely to receive timely vaccinations if they receive a nurse visit at the recommended age for vaccinations indicating that nurses encourage timely take-up of vaccines. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Charlotte.Jespersen@econ.ku.dk"
"SODAS Lecture Series: Mixed Methods in The Digital Age";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-05-19";"11:00";"2020-05-19";"12:30";"CSS, room 1.2.26";"";" It has been noted by many that digital data affords new ways of combining data sources and methods, especially across the qualitative and quantitative divide. Many forms of digital data allow the researcher to reconstruct a detailed account of both the context and content of social interaction, while at the same time allowing for inquiry into aggregated patterns at the level of populations. This allows close integration of qualitative and quantitative modes of inquiry -something which has led to excitementaround the social sciences and related disciplines. Social scientists have combined qualitative in-depth text analysis with automated machine learning to make interpretatively valid and large scale inference about the dynamics of culture. Others have combined sensory data from mobile phones together with participant observation to investigate technology use, party sociality and more. These promising new ways of combining methods have jet to be formulated into paradigmatic methodologies and many of the problems and potentials are yet to be unpacked. In this SODAS spring lecture series we have invited a series of speakers to address various aspects of mixing methods in the digital age, through either methodological arguments or exemplar mixed methods studies. Title, abstract and presentation to be announced."
"David Weil, Brown University - CANCELLED";"Department of Economics";"2020-05-27";"";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, room 26.2.21";"Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"David Weil"
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium #12  Arbejdsmarkedet - POSTPONED";"";"2020-05-28";"16:00";"";"18:00";"CSS i bygning 26, 3. sal (26.3.21) ";"Arbejdsmarkedet";"Økonomisk Eksploratorium#12 ArbejdsmarkedetTorsdag den 28. maj kl. 16-18 i CSS, 26.3.21 (Frokoststuen) Hvordan går det med løn-uligheden i Danmark? Tager robotterne over? Hvordan øger vi jobsøgernes chancer på arbejdsmarkedet? Ved semestrets sidste eksploratorium samler vi forskere fra forskellige økonomiske discipliner for at blive klogere på arbejdsmarkedet. Du møder Alexander Sebald, Morten Graugaard Olsen og Johan Sæverud. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Økonomisk Institut og Politrådet er vært for Økonomisk Eksploratorium. Hvert semester afholder vi et månedligt arrangement med et tema, som tager afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet.Med arrangementerne åbner vi dørene ind til ind forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi bliver brugt i samfundet. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for studerende, ansatte og alle andre med interesse i økonomi. Det er muligheden for at møde vores forskere uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Økonomisk Eksploratorium foregår på en niveau, hvor alle kan være med og hvor der er plads til spørgsmål og dialog. Instituttet sørger for rigelige mængder kaffe og kage. Vi glæder os til at se dig! Bedste hilsner Jane & Susanne - på vegne på instituttet og Politrådet "
"Virtual SODAS Data Discussion w/  Kristian Hoeck, Emilie M. Gregersen, Sofie L. Astrupgaard & Malene H. Jespersen";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-05-29";"11:00";"2020-05-29";"12:00";"Zoom";"Join us for the second virtual SODAS Data Discussion where PhD student Kristian Hoeck will present his work followed by Academic Research Assistant Emilie M. Gregersen and Student Assistants Sofie L. Astrupgaard and Malene H. Jespersen.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. PhD student from University of Manchester, Kristian Hoeck, will present his work. He is followed by Academic Research Assistant Emilie M. Gregersen and Student Assistants Sofie L. Astrupgaard and Malene H. Jespersen. Kristian Hoeck: Humanoid robots: Models of the human or modelling the human? How are the humanoid robots at Intelligent Robotics Laboratory (IRL) used as, what professor at IRL Hiroshi Ishiguro calls models of the human? In this short talk, based on material from one year of ethnographic fieldwork at IRL, I will present examples of the ways that the human is used as model and how the human is being modelled in embodied robotic form. We will meet the android child robot ibuki, modelled over the anatomy of a ten-year-old boy; and the gynoid, Erica modelled on the ‘statistically average’ beauty ideal for a young woman. With these two android I will ask: In which ways does the basis for the model and the technological approach in itself inform the object of study: The social human. Emilie M. Gregersen, Sofie L. Astrupgaard and Malene H. Jespersen: Lockdown ethnography: Using logbooks, self-reporting and emojis to study routines during the corona crisis How can one study people’s daily lives and routines from the comfort and limitations of one’s home office? The current COVID-19 situation has challenged the classic ethnographic fieldwork approach, forcing us to explore new ways of obtaining in-depth, or ‘thick’ data, about our objects of study. In this presentation we outline our so-called ‘logbook study’ which aims to measure small changes in young people’s everyday lives over time by asking them to self-report daily data on sleeping routines, socialization patterns and screen-time usage over a period of four weeks. The logbooks included small diary entries, survey questions, emotion logging in the form of emojis, and were complemented with in-depth interviews. We will present our experiences with working at the intersection between qualitative and quantitative methods by addressing questions such as: What are the strengths and weaknesses in using self-reporting and emojis as a method to explore daily routines? How does the structure of our logbook shape the type of data we get? How do we standardize qualitative data-gathering and analysis when several anthropologists work together? The SODAS Data Discussion will take place in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you want to attend the event or just want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"Virtual SODAS Data Discussion w/  Jonas Toubøl & Anna Sapienza";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-06-19";"11:00";"2020-06-19";"12:00";"Zoom";"Join the fourth virtual SODAS Data Discussion of spring 2020. Jonas Toubøl and Anna Sapienza will present their work.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Postdoc at Department of Sociology, Jonas Toubøl, will present their work. Jonas Toubøl is a Postdoc at Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen, where he also obtained his PhD on the mobilization of the Danish refugee solidarity movement. His research interests covers political sociology, social stratification and mixed methods research designs, especially social movements, and class, as well as triangulation of social media content data with, survey, qualitative and other data sources. Jonas Toubøl is followed by Anna Sapienza, who is a newly hired Postdoc at SODAS/DISTRACT. Jonas Toubøl: Bringing Social Context back in: Enriching Survey with Measures of Social Interaction from Social Media Content Data This talk present research carried out in collaboration with Hjalmar Bang Carlsen and Snorre Ralund that addresses the classical problem in survey methodology of measuring respondent context. We demonstrate the utility of combining individual survey data with social media content data in order to analyze how social context influences individual behavior. Lack of valid and reliable measures of the contexts of social interaction individuals are embedded in has remained an Achilles heel of the survey method. The reason is that collection of direct observation of social interaction requires qualitative analysis of the context, which, hitherto, is too costly to collect on a large scale. Instead, researchers have resorted to indirect measures of aggregate group composition, respondent reports of social context and institutional accounts. However, with the recent advent of social media data, contemporary social scientists have social interaction data at an unprecedented scale. To utilize this data for quantitative analysis researchers have to transform text prose into good measurement. We combine qualitative content analysis and supervised machine learning in order to insure both semantic validity and accuracy in our measure of social interaction and test its substantial performance in predicting individual political participation in collective action. Finally, the talk also addresses how contexts and individuals can be effectively sampled using Facebook groups. Carlsberg Foundation funded Toubøl's research as part of the project Mobilization in the era of social media: Introducing the decisive role of group level factors. Anna Sapienza: Escape from Covid Island: how online gaming is becoming our getaway from the pandemic. The last few months of social-distancing have forced all of us to escape from the self-isolation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic by finding new and innovative ways of gathering and socialising. Among all these activities there is one that is attracting more and more people every day: online gaming. This is an extraordinary moment for games, which have become even more popular as people are re-discovering their favourite games to make up for the loss of physical entertainment that self-isolation is causing. The gaming industry has indeed recorded a staggering boost in the online activity of players from all over the world. In this talk, I will present a preliminary study based on Steam, a well-known video game digital distribution service by Valve. Thanks to Steam’s open API, its up-to-date community news and several third-party tools, that track the activity of players online, we can have a close look at what happened during the lockdown. The main goal is to understand what are the different patterns of activity and identify the games that had a key role in the rise of online gaming. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you want to attend the event or just want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"Kasper Brandt forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-06-19";"13:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, UCPH";"Kasper Brandt forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling på Økonomisk Institut: ""Essays in Development Economics: Human Capital and Armed Conflicts""";"Kasper Brandt forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Essays in Development Economics: Human Capital and Armed Conflicts"" Tid og sted 19. juni 2020 kl. 13:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Thomas Markussen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand Research Director Lant Pritchett, Oxford Blavatnik School of Government , UK Professor Patricia Justino, UNU-WIDER, Finland Abstract This thesis comprises four self-contained chapters in the field of development economics. The first chapter estimates a private school learning premium in Tanzania, using unique administrative data on national exams in primary and secondary school for 635,000 students. A value-added model compares secondary school exam scores for students with the same primary school exam scores from the same primary school in the same year. The model further controls for peer effects and unobserved ability. On average, private schools improve exam scores by 0.54 standard deviations in two years. An instrumental variable model suggests the effect is causal. The second chapter takes the analysis of the private school learning premium to the district level to account for potential spillover effects. The chapter aggregates individual-level test scores of Kenyan primary school children to the district-cohort-year level, and employs a system generalized method of moments estimator to study the effects of private school enrolment on average latent ability. The results suggest a substantial positive impact on learning from private school enrolment. A 10 percentage point increase in the proportion of children enrolled in private schools is expected to improve average latent ability in a district-cohort by 0.11 of a standard deviation. The third chapter evaluates a fee-free secondary school reform in Tanzania. Using variation in district and cohort exposure to the reform, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy to estimate the short-term impacts of the reform. The reform substantially increased enrolment into secondary education. While these enrolment effects were predominantly driven by an increase in public school enrolment, there was also a delayed positive effect on private school enrolment. Districts mostly affected by the reform experienced a significant drop in exam scores relative to less affected districts, which cannot be explained by academic abilities of new students. These findings are in line with a theoretical model on school choice, where some individuals are credit-constrained and increased enrolment harms public school quality. The fourth chapter estimates a measure of state capacity at the 2.5×2.5 arc-minutes grid cell level (≈ 5 kilometers) for Sub-Saharan Africa. The measure builds on geocoded survey-based data on local state capacity, which we predict and extrapolate using an ensemble of regression trees. We demonstrate the usefulness of measuring state capacity at a disaggregated level by including our local state capacity index as a moderating factor in the relationship between oil wealth and armed conflict. The findings suggest that cells with higher local state capacity face lower risks of conflicts caused by oil price hikes. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Charlotte.Jespersen@econ.ku.dk"
"Anne Lundgaard Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-06-22";"10:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, UCPH";"Anne Lundgaard Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling :""Yield Curve Dynamics: Persistence, Volatility, and the Real Economy""";"Anne Lundgaard Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling :""Yield Curve Dynamics: Persistence, Volatility, and the Real Economy"" Kandidat Anne Lundgaard Hansen Titel ""Yield Curve Dynamics: Persistence, Volatility, and the Real Economy"" Tid og sted 22. juni 2020 kl. 10:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Prof. Frederique Bec, Professeur des Universités Cergy-Pontoise, Frankrig Prof. Giuseppe Cavalière, Universitet Bologna, Italien Abstract: This thesis addresses key challenges for modeling and interpreting yield curve dynamics. Through three self-contained chapters, I present new methodologies and empirical insights related to the time-series properties of bond yields and risk factors in bond markets. In Chapter 1 (“Modeling Persistent Interest Rates with Volatility-Induced Stationarity”), I develop a model with volatility-induced stationarity that can capture the persistence in interest rates. Chapter 2 (“Yield Curve Volatility and Macroeconomic Risk”) demonstrates the importance of accounting for time-varying volatility when attributing variation in the yield curve to macroeconomic shocks. Finally, I present in Chapter 3 (“A Joint Model for the Term Structures of Interest Rates and Realized Volatility”) a joint framework for modeling the yield curve and the realized yield covariance matrix. Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at rekvirere en kopi af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til Charlotte.Jespersen@econ.ku.dk"
"Meltem Daysal, Odensen Universitet";"Department of Economics";"2020-09-08";"14:00";"2020-09-08";"15:15";"";"""Spillover Effects of Early-Life Medical Interventions"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Spillover Effects of Early-Life Medical Interventions"" Abstract We investigate the spillover effects of early-life medical treatments on the treated children and their families. We use a regression discontinuity design that exploits changes in medical treatments across the very low birth weight (VLBW) cutoff. Using administrative data from Denmark, we find improvements in the short-term mental health of the mothers and in the 9th grade test scores of the siblings of children slightly below the VLBW cutoff. Our results suggest that focal child survival and health are both drivers of the improvement in maternal mental health, and that the sibling test score spillovers are due to improved interactions within the family and to parentalcompensating behavior. Keywords: Medical care, birth, children, schooling, spilloversJEL Classifications: I11, I12, I18, I21, J13 Contact person: Christian Schultz"
"Rachel Ngai, LSE";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-09-11";"14:15";"2020-09-11";"15:15";"";"""A multisector perspective on wage stagnation"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""A multisector perspective on wage stagnation"" Joint with Orhun Sevinç Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"CopenhagenMacro Days 2020";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2020-09-14";"";"2020-09-16";"";"";"Virtual Conference, 14-15-16 September 2020";"Danmarks Nationalbank, the University of Copenhagen and VMACS – Virtual Macro Seminars will host the CopenhagenMacro Days, a series of events bringing together leading researchers, junior scholars and experts from the policy community in the field of macroeconomics, macro-labor, macro-finance and international economics."
"Giovanni Ricco, Warwick University";"The Department of Economics";"2020-09-17";"16:00";"2020-09-17";"17:15";"";"""The global transmission of US monetary policy"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The global transmission of US monetary policy"" Abstract This paper studies the transmission of US monetary shocks across the globe by employing a high-frequency identification of policy shocks and large VAR techniques, in conjunction with a large macro-financial dataset of global and national indicators covering both advanced and emerging economies. Our identification controls for the information effects of monetary policy and allows for the separate analysis of tightenings and loosenings of the policy stance. First, we document that US policy shocks have large real and nominal spillover effects that affect both advanced economies and emerging markets. Policy actions cannot fully isolate national economies, even in the case of advanced economies with flexible exchange rates. Second, we investigate the channels of transmission and find that both trade and financial channels are activated and that there is an independent role for oil and commodity prices. Third, we show that effects are asymmetric and larger in the case of contractionary US monetary policy shocks. Finally, we contrast the transmission mechanisms of countries with different exchange rates, exposure to the dollar, and capital control regimes. Contact person: Christian Schultz "
"Virtual Data Discussion w/ Emil Chrisander & Jonas Lybker Juul";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-09-18";"11:00";"2020-09-18";"12:00";"Zoom";"Join us for the first Data Discussion of fall 2020. PhD student Emil Chrisander and Postdoc Jonas Lybker Juul will present.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this fall. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Ph.d. student at Department of Economics Emil Chrisander and Postdoc at Center for Applied Mathematics at Cornell University Jonas Lybker Juul will present their work. Emil Chrisander: Prediction Policy for Matching Mechanisms: The Case of School Choice This paper investigates whether using prediction tools in the classic Deferred Acceptance algorithm can improve match quality. We focus on admission to higher education under the objective of reducing student attrition. We consider two modifications to admission policies using Student Proposing Deferred Acceptance: i) reject matched applicants with high attrition risk ii) apply attrition risk as school priority during matching. We evaluate the efficacy of these policies based on data from the Danish centralized admission mechanism. We conduct counterfactual simulations and evaluate the predictions on subsequent years’ admission data. We show that attrition can be reduced, but only by excluding students with high attrition risk, and we find evidence that enacting these mechanisms lead to systematic redistribution among applicants and schools. While the popular study programs would be able to considerably reduce their attrition rate, because they can pick and choose among the applicants with low attrition risk, it follows that the less popular study programs would see increased attrition. Moreover, we show that applicants from wealthy (poor) families would improve (worsen) their admission likelihood under our proposed prediction policy interventions. Jonas Lybker Juul: What does cascade statistics tell us about the mechanisms behind the diffusion of online content? How do false news and true news diffusion differ? Politics news vs. non-political news? Visual vs. written content? With the main data record of information diffusion being diffusion cascades – a collection of timestamped, directed, rooted trees – statistical network analysis is the primary toolkit for answering such questions rigorously. By studying the structure of these tree collections, one hopes to understand how different content spreads. In this work, we show the importance of the joint distribution of statistical properties of such trees in any analysis, both through an empirical analysis of false/true news cascades and through the analysis of a motivating model. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you want to attend the event or just want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk. "
"Gene Amromin, Chicago Fed ";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-09-18";"14:15";"2020-09-18";"15:15";"";"""Passing the Buck: Liquidity, Student Loans, and Who Pays for College"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar.";"""Passing the Buck: Liquidity, Student Loans, and Who Pays for College"" Abstract The flow of new student loans increased by 50% between 2007 and 2010, when credit markets were disrupted and home prices fell by a third nationwide. We study whether these facts are related. Using survey and credit bureau data, we find that erosion in parents’ home equity shifted both the financial and real cost of college enrollment to the student. These students carry more student debt, are more likely to work in college, and less likely to have a home or car in early adulthood, although their enrollment decision itself is unaffected. Parents unable to extract home equity spend relatively less on education and accumulate more non-housing wealth. We find no evidence that parents reverse these flows once their home equity wealth rebounds. Since enrollment is unaffected, these findings demonstrate that liquidity partly determines which family members bear the cost of education. This suggests current student loan policy, which directs liquid education financing to students as opposed to parents, may be tilting the obligation of paying for college to younger generations. Joint with Jan Eberly and John Mondragon Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Gabriel Züllig forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Department of Economics UCPH";"2020-09-18";"15:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, UCPH";"Gabriel Züllig forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Empirical Essays in Macroeconomics: Heterogeneous Firms, Workers, and Industries""";"Gabriel Züllig forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling :""Empirical Essays in Macroeconomics: Heterogeneous Firms, Workers, and Industries"" Kandidat Gabriel Züllig Titel ""Empirical Essays in Macroeconomics: Heterogeneous Firms, Workers, and Industries"" Tid og sted 18. september 2020 kl. 15:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/69539178465 Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Niels Johannesen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Lektor Ivan Petrella, Warwick Business School, UK Prof. Mikael Carlsson, Uppsala Universitet, Sverige Abstract: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters in the field of macroeconomics. The first chapter studies the labor market adjustments to a large reduction in credit supply to firms. I use Danish bank-borrower data and exploit the fact that banks had different exposures to the money-market freeze during the global financial crisis, translating to different levels of credit supply to firms. Businesses without access to internal or external liquidity reduced employment but did not cut their employees’ wages. Instead, they change the composition of their labor force to less expensive workers. Workers with previously high wages take substantial wage cuts in their new job. My findings are consistent with large employment effects of financial shocks and low wage growth well into the recovery. Chapter two, co-authored with Luca Dedola and Mark Strøm Kristoffersen, uses a novel methodology to estimate the structural pass-through of cost shocks to firms’ prices in the Danish PPI. In doing so, our approach accounts and tests for many features present in structural macroeconomic models such as nominal rigidities. We show that the selection bias that a commonly used menu cost model introduces in the estimation is statistically significant, but not economically meaningful. The pass-through of firm-level cost shocks such as to the price of imports is well below one, indicating that firms let mark-ups absorb cost increases in order to preserve market share. We also provide evidence of strategic complementarities between firms. If firms of different sectors are interlinked, shocks to a particular sector will transmit along supply chains to other sectors over time. The third chapter takes this idea to a forecasting exercise. Proposing time series models that incorporate both heterogeneous sectors and their interactions, we let those models compete in a horse race to determine the best forecasts of output. We show that the most accurate model is the one that is best able to understand the degree of sectoral comovement, i.e. to distinguish between sectoral and common shocks. This chapter is co-authored with Gregor Bäurle and Elizabeth Steiner. "
"The Radical Inductiveness of Machine Learning";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-09-25";"11:00";"2020-09-25";"12:30";"Zoom";"The speaker of the first SODAS Lecture of fall 2020 will be Assistant Professor at Northeastern University, Laura K. Nelson.";" SODAS Lecture Series: Mixed Methods It has been noted by many that digital data affords new ways of combining data sources and methods, especially across the qualitative and quantitative divide. Many forms of digital data allow the researcher to reconstruct a detailed account of both the context and content of social interaction, while at the same time allowing for inquiry into aggregated patterns at the level of populations. This allows close integration of qualitative and quantitative modes of inquiry - something which has led to excitementaround the social sciences and related disciplines. Social scientists have combined qualitative in-depth text analysis with automated machine learning to make interpretatively valid and large scale inference about the dynamics of culture. Others have combined sensory data from mobile phones together with participant observation to investigate technology use, party sociality and more. These promising new ways of combining methods have jet to be formulated into paradigmatic methodologies and many of the problems and potentials are yet to be unpacked. In this SODAS spring lecture series we have invited a series of speakers to address various aspects of mixing methods in the digital age, through either methodological arguments or exemplar mixed methods studies. Laura K. Nelson is an assistant professor of sociology at Northeastern University where she is core faculty at the NULab for Texts, Maps, and Networks, is affiliated faculty at the Network Science Institute, and is on the executive committee for Women’s, Gender, and Sexuality Studies. She was previously a postdoctoral fellow at the Berkeley Institute for Data Science and Digital Humanities @ Berkeley at the University of California, Berkeley, and for the Management and Organizations Department at Northwestern University, where she was also affiliated with the Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO). She uses computational tools, principally automated text analysis, to study social movements, culture, gender, institutions, and organizations. She has published in Sociological Methods and Research, Sociological Methodology, Oxford University Press, and Springer, among other outlets, and has given talks and workshops on computational methods across the United States and internationally. Abstract Machine learning is often framed in the social sciences as a more sophisticated way to do regression analysis. In this talk I argue that this is an epistemological distortion: the mathematical assumptions behind machine learning are much closer to the epistemology of inductive methods than they are to the deductive requirements of regression analysis. Using examples from my own research, I show that machine learning can not only be used in qualitative and interpretive research, it is, down to its most basic assumptions, a radically inductive method. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm."
"Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-09-25";"14:15";"2020-09-25";"15:15";"";"""Modigliani meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Modigliani meets Minsky: Inequality, Debt, and Financial Fragility in America, 1950-2016"" Abstract This paper studies the secular increase in U.S. household debt and its relation to growing income inequality and financial fragility. We exploit a new household-level dataset that covers the joint distributions of debt, income, and wealth in the United States over the past seven decades. The data show that increased borrowing by middle-class families with low income growth played a central role in rising indebtedness. Debt-to-income ratios have risen most dramatically for households between the 50th and 90th percentiles of the income distribution. While their income growth was low, middle-class families borrowed against the sizable housing wealth gains from rising home prices. Home equity borrowing accounts for about half of the increase in U.S. household debt between the 1970s and 2007. The resulting debt increase made balance sheets more sensitive to income and house price fluctuations and turned the American middle class into the epicenter of growing financial fragility. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Ralph Luetticke, UCL";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-10-02";"14:15";"2020-10-02";"15:15";"";"""Financial Frictions: Macro vs Micro Volatility"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Financial Frictions: Macro vs Micro Volatility"" Abstract We examine the impact of frictional financial intermediation in a HANK model. An incentive problem restricts banking sector leverage and gives rise to an equilibrium spread between the returns on savings and debt. The size of this spread impacts on the wealth distribution and movements in it subject borrowers and savers to different intertemporal prices. The model generates a financial accelerator that is larger than in a representative agent setting, derives mainly from consumption rather than investment, and works through a countercyclical interest rate spread. Credit policy can mute this mechanism while stricter regulation of banking sector leverage inhibits households’ ability to smooth consumption in response to idiosyncratic risk. Thus, although leverage restrictions stabilize at the aggregate level, we find substantial welfare costs. Joint with Seungcheol Lee and Morten Ravn Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"DFI Annual Conference 2020";"Danish Finance Institute and University of Copenhagen";"2020-10-08";"";"";"";"Christian Hansen Auditorium, building 34.0.01, Bartholinsgade 4A, 1353 København K";"The Danish Finance Institute will host its third annual conference on Thursday October 8, 2020 at the University of Copenhagen.";"The Danish Finance Institute will host its third annual conference on Thursday October 8, 2020 at the University of Copenhagen. Please find more information on DFI's event site. "
"Virtual Data Discussion w/ Hilda Rømer Christensen & Anna Rogers";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-10-09";"11:00";"2020-10-09";"12:00";"Zoom";"Join us for the second Data Discussion of the fall where Hilda Rømer Christensen and Anna Rogers will present their work.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this fall. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Associate Professor at Department of Sociology Hilda Rømer Christensen and Postdoc at SODAS Anna Rogers will present their work. Hilda Rømer Christensen works on the TInnGOproject analyzing Google image search results around transportation. Anna Rogers' main research area is Natural Language Processing. She works on interpretability and evaluation of deep learning models, as well as computational social science. Hilda Rømer Christensen: Digital analysis as a research method for studies of transport, mobility and diversity? The aim of this presentation is to present the TINNGO digital analysis as a possible research method for studies of transport, mobility and diversity. The aim has been to explore digital analysis as a new mode of evidence based knowledge production which enables comparative analysis of various gender diversity and transport discourses throughout Europe. More precisely the digital queries throw lights on affiliated networks related to terms such as smart mobility and passenger as well as well as gendered patterns of transport and employment. Moreover it is demonstrated that digital analysis is not an isolated tool, but is in need of interpretation and alignments with conceptual and contextualized analysis. Anna Rogers: Can GPT-3 Use its Vast Knowledge? The chief strength of the current deep-learning-based methods in Natural language processing is their ability to learn from large amounts of textual data; however, it is not clear whether this process can in principle result in human-like verbal reasoning ability. The latest development in scaling these methods is GPT-3, a language model with 175 billion parameters that was trained on 300 billion tokens of text. This work puts to test the reasoning abilities of GPT-3 in the ""few-shot learning"" mode: to what extent can it use the knowledge that it has seen in training? The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you want to attend the event or just want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk."
"Johannes Wohlfart";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-10-09";"14:15";"2020-10-09";"15:15";"";"""Uncertainty and information acquisition: Evidence from firms and consumers"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Uncertainty and information acquisition: Evidence from firms and consumers"" Abstract We leverage the small open economy Switzerland as a testing ground for basic premises of models of rational inattention. First, we document high levels of information acquisition about the exchange rate compared to the inflation and unemployment rate in samples of both firms and consumers. Second, we provide descriptive evidence that information frictions strongly decline in the stake size of economic decisions involved for firms and consumers, as predicted by models of rational inattention. Third, we show that consistent with a basic premise of rational inattention models, firms' demand for a report about exchange rate developments increases in an exogenously induced increase in the perceived uncertainty of the exchange rate. Households’ information acquisition, however, is inelastic to an exogenous increase in perceived exchange rate uncertainty. Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Yevgeniy Golovchenko defends his PhD thesis";"Department of Political Science";"2020-10-09";"16:00";"2020-10-09";"19:00";"Centre for Health and Society, Entrance from Gammeltoftsgade, building 35, room 35.01.06";"Yevgeniy Golovchenko defends his PhD thesis ""Pro-Kremlin Disinformation on Social Media"".";"Candidate Yevgeniy Golovchenko Title ""Pro-Kremlin Disinformation on Social Media"" The thesis is available as an e-book via Academic books. Time and venue Friday 9 October, 2020 at 16:00 at the University of Copenhagen, Centre for Health and Society, building 35, room 35.01.06. Kindly note that the defence will start precisely at 16:00. Due to corona restrictions only thirty people are allowed to participate in the defence in person. For this reason you must have an official invitation for the defence, please contact the PhD administration: phdcourses@ifs.ku.dk if you have any questions. However the defence will be streamed online on Zoom, and is therefore open to the public. To gain access to the defence on Zoom please use the following link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/61142917735. Passcode: 916623. Please make sure to turn off your camera and microphone. Assessment committee Professor with special responsibilities Anders Wivel, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen (chair) Associate Professor Molly E. Roberts, University of California, USA Professor Sarah Oates, University of Maryland, USA Abstract Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 was followed by a growing public interest in Kremlin’s use of online disinformation abroad. Scholars, authorities and journalists often portray Russia as a powerful agent of state-driven deception, capable of using social media to sway elections and even winning an information war against the West. The purpose of this article-based dissertation is to nuance these views by examining the nature and scope of pro-Kremlin disinformation and counter-disinformation on social media. Through its empirical findings, the dissertation contributes to a debate that is largely driven by theoretical perspectives and journalistic accounts. For this purpose, the dissertation uses methods from computational social science to analyze cases of pro-Kremlin disinformation and counter disinformation. Each dissertation article tied to a historically significant event - from 2014 to 2017 - during the deteriorating relationship between Russia and the West."
"SODAS Lecture Series: Mixed Methods in The Digital Age";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-10-23";"11:00";"2020-10-23";"12:30";"Zoom";"At the second SODAS Lecture this fall researcher at the CNRS Centre for Internet and Society Tommaso Venturini will present his work. ";" It has been noted by many that digital data affords new ways of combining data sources and methods, especially across the qualitative and quantitative divide. Many forms of digital data allow the researcher to reconstruct a detailed account of both the context and content of social interaction, while at the same time allowing for inquiry into aggregated patterns at the level of populations. This allows close integration of qualitative and quantitative modes of inquiry - something which has led to excitement around the social sciences and related disciplines. Social scientists have combined qualitative in-depth text analysis with automated machine learning to make interpretatively valid and large scale inference about the dynamics of culture. Others have combined sensory data from mobile phones together with participant observation to investigate technology use, party sociality and more. These promising new ways of combining methods have jet to be formulated into paradigmatic methodologies and many of the problems and potentials are yet to be unpacked. In this SODAS spring lecture series we have invited a series of speakers to address various aspects of mixing methods in the digital age, through either methodological arguments or exemplar mixed methods studies. Tommaso Venturini will present his work. He is a researcher at the CNRS Centre for Internet and Society. His research focuses on Digital Methods, STS and Visual Network Analysis. On biting off more than you can chew. A question, an example and the beginning of an answer Digital methods have been advertised by several scholars (including myself) for their potential to get over the divide between qualitative and quantitative methods. This crossing, however, has never been easy and quali-quantitative researchers has developed different strategies to tackle this difficulty. Some decided to “go native” and skilfully attuned their research questions to the methodological affordances of the available digital records. Other have preferred to “go meta” and investigate the limits and bias of digital research. These strategies are indubitably judicious, yet they give up (perhaps rightfully, perhaps a bit too quickly) a more ambitious goal of digital social sciences: exploring the deep cultural consequences of large sociotechnical systems. This requires crossing the quali-quantitative gap at its widest, stretching computational approaches over thick anthropological questions. Is this ambitious or just crazy? In my in talk I will address this questions by presenting an ongoing research on digital folklore, attention cycles and platforms infrastructure. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.30 pm. If you want to attend the event or just want to know more, please write Sophie Smitt Sindrup Grønning at sophie.groenning@sodas.ku.dk. "
"Peter Lihn Jørgensen, CBS";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-10-23";"14:15";"2020-10-23";"15:15";"";"""Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Flatter Phillips Curve"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Flatter Phillips Curve"" Joint with Kevin Lansing Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"DISTRACT seminar w/ Ulrik Lyngs on 30 October";"";"2020-10-27";"";"";"";"";"DISTRACT is hosting a public seminar on Zoom on 30 October 2020.";"DISTRACT is hosting a public seminar on Zoom on 30 October at 11-12. Here, visitor Ulrik Lyngs, PhD in computer science, will present the following: Self-Control in Cyberspace: Examining Tools of Resistance in the Battle for Online Attention Instant access to information, entertainment, and social connection enabled by smartphones and computers provides innumerable benefits, but also unprecedented opportunity for distraction. However, while technology companies have devoted enormous resources to keeping users 'hooked' on digital systems, little is known about how designers can best support people in regaining control over their digital device use. On online stores for apps and browser extensions, however, a market niche has emerged for 'digital self-control tools' where millions of people experiment with tools that, e.g., limit time spent in specific apps or remove distracting website elements. In this talk, I discuss how this landscape, in combination with psychological research on the mechanics of self-control, can be used as a rich resource for understanding how to help people control their allocation of time and attention in digital spaces. Ulrik Lyngs recently defended his DPhil (PhD) thesis in Computer Science from the University of Oxford, and has an interdisciplinary background with an MA in the Study of Religion and Psychology from the University of Aarhus and an MSc in Cognitive and Evolutionary Anthropology from the University of Oxford. His research on challenges of self-regulation in relation to digital device use received the EPSRC (UK research council) Doctoral Prize. Moreover, his collaboration with the Oxford Counselling Service on the 'Reducing Digital Distraction' workshop, which supports students who struggle with digital self-control, was recognised at the MPLS Impact Awards. Ulrik previously worked in London as a producer for the world's largest philosophy and music festival, HowTheLightGetsIn. The link for the Zoom meeting is: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/61137958939."
"Davide Debortoli, UPF and Barcelona GSE";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-10-30";"14:15";"2020-10-30";"15:15";"";"""Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign"" Abstract This paper argues that an important, yet overlooked, determinant of the government spending multiplier is the direction of the fiscal intervention. Regardless of whether we identify government spending shocks from (i) a narrative approach, or (ii) a timing restriction, we find that the contractionary multiplier – the multiplier associated with a negative shock to government spending – is above 1 and largest in times of economic slack. In contrast, the expansionary multiplier – the multiplier associated with a positive shock – is substantially below 1 regardless of the state of the cycle. These results help understand seemingly conflicting results in the literature. A simple theoretical model with incomplete financial markets and downward nominal wage rigidities can rationalize our findings. (Joint with R. Barnichon and C. Matthes) Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Bjørn Bjørnsson Meyer forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-11-03";"15:00";"";"";"CSS 25.01.53";"Bjørn Bjørnsson Meyer forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Post-secondary Education, Technology and Labor Markets""";"Bjørn Bjørnsson Meyer forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling :""Post-secondary Education, Technology and Labor Markets"" Kandidat Bjørn Bjørnsson Meyer Titel ""Post-secondary Education, Technology and Labor Markets"" Tid og sted 3. november 2020 kl. 15:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Torben Heien Nielsen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Edwin Leuven, Oslo Universitet Professor Christopher Neilson, Princeton Universitetet, US Abstract: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters in the fields of labor economics and economics of education. The first chapter analyzes the effects of a large scale university reform that mandated higher course loads for Danish university students. I find that the reform increased average course progression by around six percent at the country’s largest university. Furthermore, I use the reform to leverage results on how students respond to mandatory full-time studies at other margins. I find that students forced to study full-time lowered their part-time work hours by one third. I also find evidence of negative impacts on grades and completion of courses from forced full-time studies. In the second chapter, we set up a dynamic choice model describing how various pecuniary and nonpecuniary incentives influence university students’ decisions on part-time work, dropout, and delayed graduation. We estimate the model using Danish register micro data combined with administrative data from the country’s largest university. Counterfactual simulations using the estimated model show that: (i) About half of the average delay in time-to-graduation can be explained by students following economic incentives to prepare for the labor market with work experience. The other half is due to a range of factors, such as income through part-time work and grants and the cost of effort for heavy course load. (ii) Cutting financial aid with one year reduces average time-to-graduation by 0.3 year, but also increases dropout. The chapter is co authored with Patrick Kofod Mogensen. In the third chapter, we study how Artificial Intelligence (AI) relates to college majors. Using new micro data from Denmark, we rank college majors according to whether their graduates work in AI firms. We find that AI cuts through the category of STEM degrees: while computer science and mathematics majors specialize in AI producer firms, we find that the laboratory sciences concentrate in firms that only use AI. We document that AI producer majors earn higher wages, and that these earnings premiums are on the rise. Using an admission cutoff regression discontinuity design, we estimate that the causal earnings effects of higher AI producer relevance are at least as large as suggested by the correlation. The chapter is co-authored with Anders Humlum. For at overvære ph.d.-forsvaret, se venligst link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 "
"Danial Ali Akbari, LU";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-11-06";"14:15";"2020-11-06";"15:15";"";"""Shaping Inequality: Progressive Taxation unde Human Capital Accumulation"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Shaping Inequality: Progressive Taxation unde Human Capital Accumulation"" Abstract In order to design optimal policy instruments that shape the distribution of income we require realistic income models. A comparison between popular stochastic processes for income shows that most of them fail to match inequality in the US, especially at the top. The Geometric Brownian Motion with reset, however, produces realistic outcomes at both ends of the distribution, while still permitting clear analytic results. Building on this observation, we develop a micro-founded model for endogenous income inequality that fits the current US evidence. It also permits discussing the welfare effects and trade-offs of tax reforms as individuals adjust their labor supply and human capital accumulation. We extend it in a standard incomplete market setup solved numerically, in which individuals can both form precautionary savings and adjust their labor supply. A calibrated version suggests that the progressivity of US income taxes is below its welfare optimum by around six percentage points. Joint with Thomas Fischer Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Anita Marie Glenny forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-11-09";"10:00";"";"";"";"Anita Marie Glenny forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Job Search""";"Anita Marie Glenny forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Job Search"" Kandidat Anita Marie Glenny Titel ""Essays on Job Search"" Tid og sted 9. november 2020 kl. 10:00. Link til at logge på online forsvaret: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Daniel le Maire, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Andrea Weber, Department of Economics, Central European University Associate Professor Roland Rathelot, Department of Economics, University of Warwick Abstract This dissertation comprises of three independent chapters that individually contribute to research on job search during unemployment. The first chapter ""The Dynamics of Job Search in Unemployment"" is co-authored with Jonas Fluchtmann, Nikolaj Harmon and Jonas Maibom. This paper contributes to current empirical knowledge on dynamic adjustments of job search during unemployment by shedding light on search behavior in terms of the number of applications, search methods used, and characteristics of the jobs that individuals target during their time as unemployed job seekers. We use a novel administrative data set containing actual job applications made by the universe of unemployment insurance recipients in Denmark. This data source is used in all three chapters. Our results show that under prolonged exposure to unemployment, the average individual only marginally changes the types of jobs applied for. We do, however, see moderate adjustment along certain dimensions such as channels used for search. When refocusing our evaluation to identify different groups of unemployed with similar job search behavior, substantial dynamic patterns are revealed for specific groups of unemployed. The following two chapters explore job search behavior in coherence with job search outcomes. The second chapter, ""The Gender Application Gap: Do men and women apply for the same jobs?"", is co-authored with Jonas Fluchtmann, Nikolaj Harmon and Jonas Maibom. We study the extent to which gender differences in the jobs that men and women hold after unemployment are already present in the job search process. We provide first evidence on gender differences in job applications. Across a range of job characteristics there are substantial gender differences in the share of applications going to different types of jobs. These application gender gaps exist even among men and women with the same labor market observables and closely mirror gender gaps in actual hiring outcomes. In particular, women tend to apply for jobs that pay systematically lower wages. Gender differences in applications are capable of explaining more than 70 percent of the wage gap among men and women with the same labor market observables. The third chapter ""Digital Tools to Facilitate Job Search"", is co-authored with Steffen Altmann, Robert Mahlstedt and Alexander Sebald, and finishes off with a nation-wide randomized controlled trial used to study how online job search assistance affects labor market outcomes and job search behavior of unemployed workers. We provide (i) recommendations for potentially promising occupations to consider, (ii) information about the number of available vacancies in occupations that the job seeker already considers, and (iii) both types of information. We find that vacancy information as well as occupational recommendations increase working hours and labor earnings for treated individuals relative to the control group. The effects on improved labor market outcomes of the information treatments are of same order of magnitude. With additional information on job seekers’ registered applications we show how the similar employment effects of occupational recommendations and vacancy information seem to be provoked by different adjustments of job search behavior. While occupational recommendations tend to widen job seekers’ focus towards other occupations, the vacancy information seems to lead job seekers to “zoom in” and consider a narrower set of occupations. For at overvære ph.d.-forsvaret, se venligst link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672"
"Pascal Noel, Chicago Booth";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-11-13";"14:15";"2020-11-13";"15:15";"";"""Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks"" Abstract We study the consumption response to typical labor income shocks and investigate how these vary by wealth and race. First, we estimate the elasticity of consumption with respect to income using an instrument based on firm-wide changes in monthly pay. While much of the consumption-smoothing literature uses variation in unusual windfall income, this instrument captures the temporary income variation that households typically experience. In addition, because it can be constructed for every worker in every month, it allows for more precision than most previous estimates. We implement this approach in administrative bank account data and find an average elasticity of 0.23, with a standard error of 0.01. This increased precision also allows us to address an open question about the extent of heterogeneity by wealth in the elasticity. We find a much lower consumption response for high-liquidity households, which may help discipline structural consumption models. Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Christian Langholz Carstensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-11-16";"16:00";"";"";"CSS 26.2.21";"Christian Langholz Carstensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Three Essays on Housing Markets: Price Dispersion, Dynamic Location Choices and Family Investments"".";"""Three Essays on Housing Markets: Price Dispersion, Dynamic Location Choices and Family Investments"" Kandidat Christian Langholz Carstensen Titel ""Three Essays on Housing Markets: Price Dispersion, Dynamic Location Choices and Family Investments"" Tid og sted 16. November 2020 kl. 16:00. Link til at logge på til forsvaret online:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Asger Lau Andersen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Jesper Rangvid, CBS, Danmark Professor Nicolai V. Kuminoff, Arizona State University, USA Abstract This thesis consists of three independent chapters concerning investment decisions of households on the housing market. Chapter 1 considers how a local housing market may experience a differentiated development in prices across housing segments in response to a financial contraction. Housing prices in Copenhagen fell the most among homes that were already in the cheapest segments before the onset of the financial crisis of 2007. Furthermore, a close co-movement of housing prices and housing liquidity, measured in time-on-market is observed. Rationalizing these trends requires a non-stationary model that allows for search frictions together with rich heterogeneity among households and homes. To this end, I create an agent-based model which is apt to meet these requirements. When calibrated to the housing market of Copenhagen, the model is able to replicate qualitatively the development in prices and liquidity following the financial crisis of 2007. Chapter 2 is co-authored with Maria Juul Hansen, Fedor Iskhakov, John Rust and Bertel Schjerning. We present a dynamic structural equilibrium model for residential and job location decisions. A central aspect of the model is that households make residential location decisions in tandem with their job location decisions without assuming that job and residence must lie within the same local area. Households are thus implicitly choosing how far to commute. Two other key features are that job location decisions are subject to search frictions and housing prices are simulated in equilibrium. We estimate the model on micro data for the Greater Copenhagen Area and simulate two counterfactual scenarios. One that increases the supply of housing in Central Copenhagen and one that increases travel times between all municipalities. As housing supply is increased locally, prices fall everywhere and urbanization is increased. When travel times increase, housing prices fall in peripheral municipalities, households commute less and more households end up without employment. Chapter 3 considers the phenomenon of parental landlord arrangements in Denmark. A set of tax rules originally intended for self-employed workers benefit parents who purchase an apartment for the sake renting it out to their children. Such an arrangement places parents in an economically interesting trade-off, as it represents an opportunity to reap financial gains while also supporting their children. Therefore, the outcome is telling about the degree of economic altruism of parents. Regressions on investment choices and discounts if a child subsequently buys the apartment show that both motives direct parents’ decisions. In order to illustrate the welfare effects of the current tax rules, I construct a collective model of the decision process. The results suggest that welfare inequality and housing prices increase as a result of the tax rules. "
"Women in Economics &#8211; Status quo and ways forward ";"Department of Economics";"2020-11-19";"14:00";"2020-11-19";"18:00";"Virtual. Zoom link to come.";"Event organized by the network WinE-DK Women in Economics Denmark.";"Women in Economics – status quo and ways forward is the first event organized by the network WinE-DK Women in Economics Denmark. On this day, we will zoom in on sources for gender imbalances in the economics profession. We will take this evidence, group discussions and expert input as a point of departure for a focus on what we all - students, researchers, management - can do to put diversity in economics on the agenda. Download full programme Key notes Lise Vesterlund, University of Pittsburgh Sarah Smith, University of Bristol With an offset in her central scientific contributions on the subject, Lise will give a research perspective on gender differences in academia. Sarah will draw on her experience as a head of department and talk about what role management can play in addressing gender differences. Group discussions Mette Ejrnæs, University of Copenhagen: ""Women in Economics at the University of Copenhagen - a look at the data"" Group discussions on: Mentoring and networks Career progression in academia Teaching and supervision Institutional factors and the role of management Expert panel on ways forward Welcome by Bente Stallknect, prorector of the University of Copenhagen Nina Smith, Aarhus University David Dreyer Lassen, Independent Research Fund Denmark Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen, dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at University of Copenhagen Merete Eldrup, Chairman of the board of the University of Copenhagen Sigge Winther, journalist and deputy director of DJØF, will moderate the panel discussion Fill in this form to sign up. Stay tuned with #WinEdk We launch the hashtag #WinEdk during the conference. Follow #WinEdk during the conference and in the future to stay tuned on women in economics. Recorded sessions Lise Vesterlund (Uni. Of Pittsburgh): Gender imbalance in economics– a research perspective: &amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Din internetbrowser understøtter ikke iframes. Det betyder, at videoen Webinar: Women in Economics – Status quo and ways forward (1/3) ikke kan afspilles.&amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; Sarah Smith (Uni. Of Bristol): What can departments do?: &amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Din internetbrowser understøtter ikke iframes. Det betyder, at videoen Webinar: Women in Economics – Status quo and ways forward (2/3) ikke kan afspilles.&amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; Expert panel: Introduced by Bente Stallknecht (UCPH) and moderated by Sigge Winther: Women in econ research perspectives: Nina Smith Research Council perspective: David Dreyer Lassen Management perspective: Dean Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen UCPH board, experience/lessons from private sector: Merete Eldrup &amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;p&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Din internetbrowser understøtter ikke iframes. Det betyder, at videoen Webinar: Women in Economics – Status quo and ways forward (3/3) ikke kan afspilles.&amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/p&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; Fill in this form to sign up "
"CANCELLED- Virtual Data Discussion w/ Terne Sasha Thorn Jakobsen & Anna Helene Kvist Møller";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-11-20";"11:00";"2020-11-20";"12:00";"Zoom";"";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this fall. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Ph.d. student Terne Sasha Thorn Jakobsen and Ph.d. student Anna Helene Kvist Møller will present their work. Abstract and title are to be announced. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS on Zoom on November 20th (NB - new date!) from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. If you want to attend the event or just want to know more, please write to Katrine Skovdal Herold at Katrine.herold@sodas.ku.dk. "
"Martin Gonzalez Eiras";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-11-20";"14:15";"2020-11-20";"15:15";"";"""Optimally Controlling an Epidemic"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Optimally Controlling an Epidemic"" Abstract We propose a flexible model of infectious dynamics with a single endogenous state variable and economic choices by individuals and a government. We analytically characterize equilibrium and optimal outcomes as well as static and dynamic externalities and we calibrate and simulate the model to inform about the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. We find the following: (i) A lockdown is followed by its opposite---policies to stimulate activity beyond the privately optimal level. (ii) Social distancing has small welfare gains when governments lack instruments to stimulate activity. (iii) Future expected epidemiological changes substantially affect current policy. (iv) Re-infection risk may imply a more cautious steady state than optimal. (v) When a cure or vaccination arrives deterministically, optimal policy may be dis-continuous, featuring a light lockdown when the arrival date exceeds a specific value, and a strict one otherwise. (Joint with Dirk Niepelt) Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Linea Hasager forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-11-24";"13:00";"";"";"CSS 26.2.21";"Linea Hasager forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays in Migration Economics: A Host Country Perspective on Receiving and Integrating Immigrants""";"Linea Hasager forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling :""Essays in Migration Economics: A Host Country Perspective on Receiving and Integrating Immigrants Kandidat Linea Hasager Titel:""Essays in Migration Economics: A Host Country Perspective on Receiving and Integrating Immigrants"" Tid og sted: 24. november 2020 kl. 13:00. i CSS 26.2.21. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Associate Professsor Nicolaj Harmon, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Tommasso Frattine, University of Milan, Italien Senior Researcher Oddbjørn Raaum, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research, Norge Abstract The Ph.D. dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters focused on how host countries absorb immigrants into society. Chapter 1 studies the health consequences of living in a low-income neighborhood. We exploit a Spatial Dispersal Policy, which resettled refugees quasi-randomly across Danish neighborhoods, which allows us to separate causal impacts from selection into neighborhoods. We show that living in the poorest third of neighborhoods significantly increases the risk of developing a lifestyle related disease. Our findings suggest that the development of lifestyle related diseases is caused by interaction with immediate neighbors along with the characteristics of the small geographical area, whereas differences in individual income, access to health care and the presence of ethnic networks appear less important. Chapter 2 is concerned with how language training and economic work incentives affect refugees’ economic and social integration. We study an expansion of language training for refugees using a Regression Discontinuity Design. A subgroup also experienced a temporary reduction in welfare benefits. The expanded language training resulted in a significant increase in long-term employment and earnings, while the temporary benefit reduction had no impact on labor market outcomes. However, the reduced welfare benefits caused shoplifting in supermarkets to increase in the first year. Moreover, the policy had positive spillovers on the next generation. In chapter 3 I study how integration of female refugees is affected by their type of residence permit using an Event Study approach. If family-reunified women are recognized as refugees, their employment, earnings and divorce rates increase, while the risk of being subject to intimate partner violence decreases. The findings from my empirical analysis are consistent with the predictions from a model of household bargaining. The fourth chapter documents the role of labor market institutions in affecting the wage impacts of immigration using a cross-country meta-analytic approach. Our results suggest that higher labor market rigidity mitigates the effect on relative wages of native workers with skills most similar to immigrants, but exacerbates the impacts on average earnings in the economy."
"DISTRACT seminar w/ Jesper Aagaard 27 Nov";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2020-11-27";"11:00";"2020-11-27";"12:00";"Zoom";"Digital Distraction - how we handle digital technologies ";"Digital distraction - how we handle digital technologies Research shows that irrelevant use of IT in schools is related to worse grades, worse test results and a weakened ability to focus. Research also shows that pupils are aware of these negative consequences. But why do they use it then? Based on empirical research in a Danish high school, the presentation will aim at shedding light on the phenomenon and how it is handled in practice. Jesper Aagaard is cand.psych., PhD, and Associate Professor at The Department of Psychology and Behavioural Sciences at The University of Aarhus. Arrangementet foregår fredag d. 27. november kl. 11-12, alle er velkomne. Deltag på via dette Zoomlink: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/63170967678 "
"Serene Tan, NUS";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-11-27";"14:15";"2020-11-27";"15:15";"";"""Directed Search"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Directed Search"" Abstract This paper proposes a theory endogenizing the market structure when buyers’ incomes are heterogeneous. Using a directed search model, ex ante identical firms choose the product quality of a good to sell and the target audience it wants to sell to, knowing only the income distribution of buyers. I show how the income distribution of buyers matters in determining the market structure. Segmentation of the product market by buyer income type can be obtained as an equilibrium phenomenon, but need not be. Firms respond to changes in income inequality by potentially changing not just prices, but also the qualities offered for sale. Firms’ markups depend on income inequality, and worsening income inequality may manifest in higher markups. Due to the endogeneity of the market structure, this paper makes explicit how changes in income inequality matter for agents’ welfare. Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Felix Sebastian Døssing forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2020-12-02";"14:00";"";"";"";"Felix Sebastian Døssing forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Generosity, Paternalism and Unemployment"".";"Felix Sebastian Døssing forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling :""Essays on Generosity, Paternalism and Unemployment"" Kandidat Felix Sebastian Døssing Titel:""Essays on Generosity, Paternalism and Unemployment"" Tid og sted: 2. december 2020 kl. 14:00. i CSS 26.2.21. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Professsor Mette Ejrnæs, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Julia Nafziger, Aarhus Universitet, Danmark Professor Jonathan Meer, Texas A&M, USA AbstractThe present thesis is composed of three self-contained chapters, each of which address aspects of economic and political behavior. The first chapter studies the effects of collective unemployment insurance implemented for about 70,000 members of the second largest union in Denmark. With government benefits often leaving many workers with low replacement rates, collective insurance is a novel non-government solution to overcoming the difficulties associated with private insurance. The attractiveness of collective unemployment insurance, however, presupposes that the externality imposed on the government system is minimal and that it can exist without large amounts of adverse selection. I study both of these aspects and find that the implementation of collective UI – in spite of leading to large increases in replacement rates – did not lead to increased unemployment and was not associated with the selection of individuals with higher risk of unemployment. Due to the large sample size, it is possible to put a low upper bound on the possible adverse effects.The second paper documents and investigates a large amount of homophily in the generosity of couples. Females and males are three times as likely at any age to donate to charity if their partner donates to charity. I use a set of econometric methods to decompose this association into the amount explained by the selection of generous partners by generous individuals and the amount explained by generous individuals influencing their partners. I find that 40-60% of the correlation is explained by social influence.The third and last chapter uses a laboratory experiment to study how individuals make use of the opportunity to regulate the choices of others. In the normative debate on choice regulation it is often assumed that regulators are both benevolent and competent. By contrast, the results from the experiment show that self-selection into being a choice regulator is unrelated to (information about) one’s relative ability. The experiment also shows that many regulators choose to use their regulatory privilege to hurt rather than help their subjects."
"Virtual Data Discussion w/ Terne Sasha Thorn Jakobsen & Kristoffer Pade Glavind";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2020-12-04";"11:00";"2020-12-04";"12:00";"Zoom";"Join us for the fourth and last Data Discussion of fall 2020. PhD students Terne Sasha Thorn Jakobsen and Kristoffer Pade Glavind will present.";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this fall. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Kristoffer Pade Glavind: TripAdvisor: Large online review dataset I present a dataset from the online review site TripAdvisor. It includes a large body of reviews (>20 million) from all restaurants in several major Europeans cities, and overall stats for restaurants and sights from about 30 big cities around the world. Further, it includes all reviews for >100.000 individual users. I believe that this dataset has potential to answer a wide range of questions, e.g. regarding trust, information, cultural differences, travel patterns, fake reviews, composition of cities and more. I am looking for research ideas and potentially for collaborators. Terne Sasha Thorn Jakobsen: Confounds in cross-topic argument mining Argument mining – the process of finding and extracting arguments from text – can be an important step in the fight against misinformation. A big challenge is learning models that generalise across topics rather than relying on within-topic confounds. Recent work in argument mining approach the problem by training with multiple topics and performing cross-topic evaluations on held-out topics. We question whether this evaluation protocol is sufficient. We emulate the evaluation protocol with state-of-the-art models, for both single-task and multi-task learning, and analyse the models using the interpretability tool LIME, and through ablation experiments. The analysis shows that cross-topic argument mining still rely heavily on within-topic confounds and does not generalise to distant topics. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. Join Zoom Meeting: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/67702148237?pwd=dWZ2eXNUOFF5Q0YxVHphUmZYZUVCZz09 Meeting ID: 677 0214 8237Passcode: 164600 If you want to attend the event or want to know more, please write Katrine Herold at katrine.herold@sodas.ku.dk."
"Benjamin Schoefer, UC Berkeley";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-12-04";"17:00";"2020-12-04";"18:00";"";"""A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuations"" Abstract In recessions, unemployment increases despite the - perhaps counterintuitive - fact that the number of unemployed workers finding jobs expands. On net, unemployment rises only because even more workers lose their jobs. We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations resting on this countercyclicality of gross flows from unemployment into employment. In recessions, the abundance of new hires ""congests'' the jobs the unemployed fill, diminishes their marginal product and discourages further job creation. Countercyclical congestion alone explains about 30 percent of U.S. unemployment fluctuations. Besides generating realistic labor market volatility, it also provides a unified explanation for the cyclical labor wedge, the excess earnings losses from job displacement and from graduating during recessions, and the insensitivity of unemployment to labor market policies, such as unemployment insurance. Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Applied Economics Virtual End-of-Semester Workshop 2020";"The Department of Economics";"2020-12-09";"9:00";"2020-12-09";"16:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"Applied Economics Virtual End-of-Semester Workshop 2020 - arranged by the Department of Economics";"Download the full programme including abstracts for the AE-End-of-Semester Workshop 2020 via this LINK Please contact Casper Worm Hansen for Zoom link"
"Makoto Nakajima, Philadelphia Fed";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-12-11";"14:15";"2020-12-11";"15:15";"";"""Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Credit, Bankruptcy, and Aggregate Fluctuations"" Abstract We document the cyclical properties of unsecured consumer credit (procyclical and volatile) and of consumer bankruptcies (countercyclical and very volatile). Using a growth model with household heterogeneity in earnings and assets with access to unsecured credit (because of bankruptcy costs) and aggregate shocks, we show that the cyclical behavior of household earnings growth accounts for these properties, albeit not for the large volatility of credit. We find that tilting household consumption towards goods that can be purchased on credit and a slight countercyclicality in the terms of access to credit match the sizes of credit and bankruptcy volatilities. We also find that when the right to file for bankruptcy does not exist unsecured credit is countercyclical. (Joint with Jose-Victor Rios-Rull) Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Gustav Agneman forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-12-15";"16:00";"";"";"";"Gustav Agneman forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on the Political Economy of Development: Determinants of Political and Economic Behavior""";"Gustav Agneman forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling :""Essays on the Political Economy of Development: Determinants of Political and Economic Behavior"" Kandidat Gustav Agneman Titel:""Essays on the Political Economy of Development: Determinants of Political and Economic Behavior"" Tid og sted: 15. december 2020 kl. 16:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Bedømmelsesudvalg Professsor John Rand , Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Peter Martinson, Göteborg Universitet, Sverige Profesor James Robinseon, Chicago Universitet, USA Abstract:This thesis is composed of four self-contained chapters investigating determinants of political and economic decision-making in developing contexts. The first chapter studies the role of prospective economic evaluations in shaping preferences for and against political independence. In a nationally representative survey conducted in Greenland, I embed an information prime to induce an exogenous shift in economic expectations and to study how this shift influences voter behavior. The results reveal substantial information susceptibility, in that exposure to the prime impacts voters’ economic expectations of independence as well as their likelihood of opposing immediate secession. The effect is, however, much smaller among respondents with stronger Greenlandic identity, consistent with a model in which voters trade off identity and pecuniary motives when voting on independence. The second chapter presents a novel methodology to measure state capacity at sub-national levels where relevant data are lacking. We create an index of local state capacity based on survey data on states' ability to uphold law and order, collect taxes and provide services at the local level. Next, we predict this index using spatial data on structural factors which correlate with local state capacity. Lastly, we extrapolate the resulting prediction to construct a spatially disaggregated measure of state capacity across Sub-Saharan Africa. To showcase the usefulness of measuring state capacity at a local level, we employ the resulting proxy as a moderating variable in the oil-conflict relationship. The third chapter investigates the influence of food scarcity on economic cooperation. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in food scarcity induced by the Msimu harvest in rural Tanzania by conducting framed investment games with farmers before and after the harvest. Participants are both more likely to experience food scarcity and to refrain from investing in socially efficient cooperation during the lean period prior to, compared to after, the harvest. The detrimental effect is more pronounced among relatively poorer farmers. These results highlight the need to consider seasonal scarcity as a force that might itself perpetuate poverty. The fourth and final chapter studies the prevalence and determinants of parochial honesty, the tendency to behave more honestly toward members of the ingroup relative to members of the outgroup. To this end, we conduct experiments on honesty in Greenland, where small and geographically isolated communities provide for a natural demarcation between ingroup and outgroup. The results reveal significant group differentiation in moral decision-making. While participants cheat the outgroup, they consistently refrain from cheating their own group. The baseline differentiation is entirely driven by participants operating in the traditional economy, who are less exposed to market institutions and daily transactions with outsiders. This finding renders support to the Market Integration Hypothesis, which posits that economic and social integration reinforce one another. "
"Kristian Stamp Hedeager forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2020-12-16";"14:00";"";"";"";"Kristian Stamp Hedeager forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling ""Essays in Empirical Microeconomics""";"Kristian Stamp Hedeager forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling :""Essays in Empirical Microeconomics"" Kandidat Kristian Stamp Hedeager Titel:""Essays in Empirical Microeconomics"" Tid og sted: 16. december 2020 kl. 14:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 Det vil være muligt før forsvaret at få tilsendt en udgave af afhandlingen ved henvendelse til charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Professsor Søren Leth, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Kaisa Kotakorp, Tampere University, Finland Associate Professor Rune Majlund Vejlin AbstractChapter 1: Using Real-time Verification of Self-reported Information to Reduce Tax Evasion.The first chapter, co-authored with Peer Skov, studies the effect of real-time verification of taxpayer information on over-reporting of personal income tax deductions. Audit evidence shows that tax evasion disproportionally exists among self-reported income and deductions. We study a new approach to validate self-reported tax information. From 2013 the Danish tax administration (SKAT) introduced an online reporting module for taxpayers self-reporting deductions for child support and alimony payments. The module combines information from public birth and marriage registers to validate the claimants’ entitlement in real time. Using full population tax administration data, we show the 2013 introduction caused a 6% drop in the number of self-reported deductions and a 5% reduction in the value of claims on the intensive margin. The decrease in deductions for child support and alimony payments was not off-set by an increase in other deductions and therefore lead to an increase in tax revenue. The awareness of the large tax gap for self-reported income has caused tax administrations to increase the use of third-party information but not all tax items have a natural third-party. Our results show that as tax administrations move towards tax e-filing, the combination of online tax reporting and existing public registries opens a new avenue to reduce evasion from self-reported information. Chapter 2: The Effect of Garnishment on Individual Income: Evidence from Denmark.Most OECD countries use garnishments to collect government debts by deducting a share of a debtors' income directly at its source, but empirical evidence on how this practice affects labor market decisions is scarce. The second chapter studies individual income responses to garnishment in Denmark using an event-study approach combined with detailed administrative income data at the monthly frequency. I find that after 12 to 18 months in garnishment, individuals on average increase after-tax incomes by 2%. By defining individual recovery rates as the response in after-tax income relative to the individual-specific size of garnishment, I find that individuals regain on average 40 to 50% of the loss they incur through garnishment. The response is highest for individuals with relatively low garnishment rates. Individuals with very high garnishment rates seem to decrease incomes, but this effect is not statistically significant. I confirm that the income response can be interpreted as an increase in labor supply by documenting a significant increase in the number of hours worked in months following the initial garnishment. Chapter 3: Education Spillovers within the Workplace,The third chapter, which is co-authored with Jakob R. Munch and Georg Schaur, studies the impact of higher education on co-workers' wages. Education policies depend in part on the presence of externalities, but very little evidence exists to confirm the existence of such externalities. In this study we investigate if there are spillover effects from education within peer groups at the workplace. We estimate the effect of increasing the share of higher educated workers in close peer groups on wages, using a rich data source linking workers to workplaces and specific occupations. Our empirical approach accounts for the endogenous sorting of workers into peer groups and workplaces, and, at the same time avoids the reflection problem. In our main specification we find statistically significant but economically small peer effects across all occupations. The magnitude of the effect differs across length and type of education, as well as across occupations and peer group- and workplace size. For at overvære ph.d.-forsvaret, se venligst link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672"
"Marianna Kudlyak, SF Fed";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2020-12-18";"14:15";"2020-12-18";"15:15";"";"""Job-Finding and Job-Losing : A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Job-Finding and Job-Losing : A Comprehensive Model of Heterogeneous Individual Labor-Market Dynamics"" Abstract We study the paths over time that individuals follow in the labor market, as revealed in the monthly Current Population Survey. Some people face much higher flow values from work than in a non-market activity; if they lose a job, they find another soon. Others have close to equal flow values and tend to circle through jobs, search, and non-market activities. And yet others have flow values for non-market activities that are higher than those in the market, and do not work. We develop a model that identifies and quantifies heterogeneity in dynamic individual behavior. Our model provides a bridge between research on monthly transition rates in the tradition of Blanchard and Diamond (1990) and research on economic dynamics in the tradition of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). Our estimates discern 5 distinct types. Most unemployment comes from just two of those types. Low employment types frequently circle among unemployment, short-term jobs, and being out of the labor market. Short-term jobs play a role in the job-finding process related to the role of unemployment. These are stop-gap jobs for high-employment types and a part of circling for low-employment types. Because of their high job-finding rates, and despite their low flow values of non-work relative to work, the volatility of the future lifetime value that high-employment types derive from work and non-work is lower than for low-employment types. Please contact Emiliano Santoro for Zoom-link"
"Sofie Cairo forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2021-01-15";"14:00";"";"";"";"Sofie Cairo forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Economic Consequences of Complex Public Policies and Fertility Desires""";"Sofie Cairo forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Economic Consequences of Complex Public Policies and Fertility Desires"" Kandidat Sofie Cairo Titel: ""Essays on Economic Consequences of Complex Public Policies and Fertility Desires"" Tid og sted: 15. januar 2021 kl. 14:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Mette Gørtz , Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Gesine Stephan, Friedrich Alexander Universität, Tyskland Professor Petter Lundborg, Lund Universitet, Sverige Abstract:The PhD dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters. In the first chapter, I study the importance of fertility desires of young women for their later life outcomes. Matching data from the Danish Longitudinal Survey of Youth with rich administrative records, I empirically investigate the direct link between young women’s fertility desires and their family formation and labor market outcomes. I find that desiring a large family translates into earlier childbearing and is associated with significant increases in realized fertility levels. Moreover, desiring a large family is associated with cumulative wage losses over working career equivalent to 8% of mean sample wage income. Wage losses reflect delayed labor market entry and decreased labor supply over working career among women desiring a large family reflected in less full-time employment and more part-time employment. The second and third chapters focus on complex public policies, such as sanctions and work requirements, and their effect on job search and labor market outcomes of benefit recipients. These chapters rely on evidence from recent large-scale field experiments among Danish jobseekers conducted in collaboration with The Danish Agency for Labor Market and Recruitment. In the second chapter, which is joint work with Steffen Altmann, Robert Mahlstedt, and Alexander Sebald, we study how job seekers’ understanding of complex unemployment insurance (UI) benefit rules affects their job search and labor market outcomes based on a randomized controlled trial among the universe of Danish UI benefit recipients. Our intervention exogenously promotes the usage of an online information tool that provides individuals with personalized information on how their accumulated working time can be used to prolong their potential benefit period. We match data from our experiment with an online survey and comprehensive administrative records. The intervention improves job seekers’ understanding of prevailing labor market rules significantly, while consequences for realized labor market outcomes crucially depend on timing of treatment. For long-term benefit recipients, who are close to benefit expiration, the treatment increases their probability of working in temporary and part-time jobs, but reduces their overall working hours and earnings. In the third and last chapter, which is written with Robert Mahlstedt, we identify causal effects of warnings and information about enforced sanctions on subsequent labor market outcomes of welfare recipients based on a large-scale field experiment. We disentangle the effect of providing (i) general information about existing work requirements and (ii) personalized information regarding the individual’s own situation. Although warnings generally reduce the likelihood of being sanctioned, the provision of general information reduces subsequent earnings and working hours. Providing access to personalized information counteracts the negative effect of the warning and stimulates exits from welfare. The latter is partly explained by a greater usage of other types of income support not subject to the sanction regime. Information about already enforced sanctions improve the labor market performance of welfare recipients without the economic support of a partner."
"DISTRACT talk with Trine Syvertsen";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2021-01-29";"11:00";"2021-01-29";"12:00";"Zoom link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64423402296";"Intrusive media, ambivalent users, digital detox (Digitox)Talk by Trine Syvertsen";"Intrusive media, ambivalent users, digital detox (Digitox)The question of how to manage online and offline involvement produces tensions in peoples’ private lives and is debated in the public sphere. In this presentation, Trine Syvertsen will talk about the project she chairs: Intrusive media, ambivalent users and digital detox (Digitox). Digitox is funded by the Norwegian Research Council 2019-2023 and currently includes nine researchers, including two PhD-scholars. The project studies intrusive media from the perspectives of history, politics, business and users. All are welcome. Time: Friday 29 January 2021 11:00-12:00 AMVenue: Zoom Zoom link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64423402296"
"Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, ECB";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2021-02-05";"14:15";"2021-02-05";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Homeownership and Portfolio Choice over the Generations"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Homeownership and Portfolio Choice over the Generations"" Abstract Earnings are riskier and more unequal for households born in the 1960s and 1980s than for those born in the 1940s. Despite the improvements in financial conditions, younger generations are less likely to be living in their own homes than older generations at the same age. By using a life-cycle model with housing and portfolio choice that includes flexible earnings risk and aggregate asset price risk, I show that changes in earnings dynamics account for a large part of the reduction in homeownership across generations. Lower-income households find it harder to buy housing, and as a result accumulate less wealth. Contact person: Patrick Moran"
"Adrien Bilal, Harvard University ";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"2021-02-12";"14:15";"2021-02-12";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Outsourcing, Inequality and Aggregate Output"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Outsourcing, Inequality and Aggregate Output"" Abstract Outsourced workers experience large wage declines, yet domestic outsourcing may raise aggregate productivity. To study this equity-efficiency trade-off, we contribute a framework in which more productive firms either post higher wages along a job ladder to sustain a larger in-house workforce, comprised of many imperfectly substitutable worker types and subject to decreasing returns to scale, or rent labor services from contractors who hire in the same frictional labor markets. Three implications arise: more productive firms are more likely to outsource to save on higher wage premia; outsourcing raises output at the firm level; labor service providers endogenously locate at the bottom of the job ladder, implying that outsourced workers receive lower wages. Using firm-level instruments for outsourcing and revenue productivity, we find empirical support for all three predictions in French administrative data. After structurally estimating the model, we show that the rise in outsourcing in France between 1997 and 2007 increased aggregate output by 1% and reduced the labor share by 3 percentage points. (Joint with Hugo Lhuillier) Read more about Adrien Bilal and read the full paper ""Outsourcing, Inequality and Aggregate Output"" Contact person: Antoine Bertheau"
"SODAS Panel Series: Issues in Fair Science";"SODAS";"2021-02-19";"11:00";"2021-02-16";"12:30";"Zoom";"SODAS Panel Series: Issues in Fair Science (Introductory Panel)";"Issues in Fair Science (Introductory Panel) As an emerging field, social data science has the opportunity to approach issues of fairness in science with a somewhat clean slate. This makes it all the more important to identify what these issues are and how they might be addressed. This panel will take a broad perspective on issues in fair science including questions of ethics and practicalities of data collection, publication incentives and academic performance indicators, diversity and equity in science, and the drivers and hurdles to research on different topics. The goal then is to map out the issues confronting the emerging field of social data science Panelists Kristoffer Albris Rebecca Adler-Nissen Anna Rogers This lecture will take place in Zoom Join Zoom Meetinghttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/65382436805?pwd=d1dKaktaRDdJMFNFZ0dWWVlSTUg5QT09Meeting ID: 653 8243 6805Passcode: 291279 If you have any questions, please contact Katrine Herold at katrine.herold@sodas.ku.dk"
"Mia Renee Herløv Jørgensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2021-02-25";"";"";"14:30";"-";"Mia Renee Herløv Jørgensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Causes of Inequality in Health and Economic Resources: Empirical Essays in Economics""";"Mia Renee Herløv Jørgensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Causes of Inequality in Health and Economic Resources: Empirical Essays in Economics"" Kandidat Mia Renee Herløv Jørgensen Titel: ""Causes of Inequality in Health and Economic Resources: Empirical Essays in Economics"" Tid og sted: 25. februar 2021 kl. 14:30. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Torben Heien Nielsen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Anna Piil Damm, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus Universitet Professor Annette Vissing-Jørgensen, Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, USA Anstract The Ph.D. dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters and considers some of the causes of inequality in income, wealth and health. The first chapter studies the health consequences of living in a low-income neighborhood. We exploit that the Danish Spatial Dispersal Policy resettled refugees quasi-randomly across neighborhoods from 1986 to 1998, which allows us to isolate the causal health impact of living in a low-income neighborhood from self-selected settlement patterns. We find that refugees who were placed in the poorest neighborhoods were more likely to develop lifestyle related diseases and suggest that health behavior of close neighbors or the characteristics of the very local area are important to understanding how neighborhoods impact the health of their residents. The chapter is co-authored with Linea Hasager. In the second chapter, we study if there is a connection between individuals' debt and their mental health. In specific, we study mental health problems following a somatic inpatient hospitalization using an event study model, where we allow the mental health response to depend on the individual's leverage prior to the hospitalization. We show that individuals with higher leverage are more likely to suffer from mental health problems after they experience a health shock than individuals with lower leverage, and our findings indicate that this could be driven by debt increasing the risk of financial distress associated with negative emotions such as stress or anxiety. The chapter is co-authored with Asger Lau Andersen, Rajkamal Iyer, Niels Johannesen and José-Luis Peydró. The third chapter is concerned with how monetary policy affects income and wealth across the income distribution. To isolate the impact of monetary policy from other macroeconomic shocks we exploit exogenous monetary policy rate changes determined by the Danish currency peg. We document that softer monetary policy creates income and asset value gains for all income groups but that gains disproportionately benefit the top income groups. For all income groups the income gains are small in comparison with the asset value gains. Our findings are important for understanding both the distributional consequences, the transmission mechanism, and the aggregate effects of monetary policy changes. The chapter is co-authored with Asger Lau Andersen, Niels Johannesen and José-Luis Peydró."
"SODAS Data Discussion 26 February 2021";"SODAS ";"2021-02-26";"11:00";"2021-02-26";"12:00";"Zoom";"Titles Tell me a story: Quantifying economic narratives and their role during COVID-19Identifying the impact of scholar mobility using bibliometric data";" Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS), is pleased to announce that we are continuing with SODAS Data Discussions this spring. SODAS aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Every month two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Authors: Daniel Borup, Jorge W. Hansen, Benjamin Liengaard and Erik C. M. Schütte. CREATES, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University. Title: Tell me a story: Quantifying economic narratives and their role during COVID-19 Abstract: We provide quantitative evidence that economic narratives are deeply integrated with the real economy and financial markets. To that end, we retrieve the most salient COVID-19 narratives from daily open-ended questionnaires presented to a large number of US stockholders prior to, during, and after the first wave of the pandemic (February through June, 2020). We elicit thirteen narratives (e.g. supply disruption, investor fear, stay at home, infection worry, and fiscal and monetary policy intervention) using textual analysis from the survey responses and quantify their propagation over time with individual time series. These narrative series are then included in a large network of macro-financial vari- ables, revealing that (i) narratives significantly drive unexpected fluctuations in the real economy and financial markets and that (ii) narratives are themselves shaped by the real economy and financial markets. The two directions are generally equally strong. These effects exist at a daily horizon, and cumulate over a weekly and monthly horizon. Narratives on supply disruption, infection worry, consumer confidence, and fiscal policy intervention play a dominant role. Authors: Benjamin Holding and Claudia Acciai, both PostDoc’s at Department of Sociology, UCPHTitle: Identifying the impact of scholar mobility using bibliometric data Abstract: The science of science literature suggests that scientists acquire different rewards for their work depending on their prior reputation. This means that scientists affiliated with high prestige institutions are often at an advantage compared to scholars from less prestigious institutions or lower research-intensive countries. However, it has previously been unknown whether this effect was due to differences in researcher quality (capacity) or due to a status-driven “Mathew-effect”. In the present study, we use scholarly mobility, as measured through the Web of Science bibliometric database, as a method to try and disentangle these potential explanations. We also aim to assess the impact of different international mobility choices on a researcher’s long-term scientific performance.We will compare performance of scholars (using a difference-in-difference approach) by matching authors with similar backgrounds (using coarsened exact matching) to understand both the short-term and the long-term impact of mobility on scientists’ career development. By looking at the performance of international mobile researchers and that of their non-mobile peers, we can assess the priming effect that specific countries, or institutions, have on the external perception of their scientific output. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place at SODAS in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. Katrine Herold is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting. Topic: Data DiscussionTime: Feb 26, 2021 11:00 AM Copenhagen Join Zoom Meetinghttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/68596374155?pwd=ZVdpbkNxL2dPN0pRWG91K2ZobS9HZz09 Meeting ID: 685 9637 4155Passcode: 978069"
"Dirk Niepelt, Study Center Gerzensee and University of Bern		";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-02-26";"14:15";"2021-02-26";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Monetary Policy with Deposits, Reserves and CBDC: Optimality, Equivalence and Politics"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Monetary Policy with Deposits, Reserves and CBDC: Optimality, Equivalence and Politics"" Contact person: Martin Gonzalez-Eiras"
"SODAS Panel Series: Ethical and Practical Issue in Data Collection";"SODAS";"2021-02-26";"16:00";"2021-02-26";"17:30";"Zoom";"SODAS Panel Series ""Ethical and Practical Issues in Data Collection"" ";" Ethical and Practical Issues in Data Collection Social data science often relies on data generated by individuals in their day to day activity online and collected by companies or other organizational actors with an interest or obligation to keep them private. This panel will focus on the ethical and practical issues this raises for data collection in social data science and beyond. These issues include the tension between privacy and reproducible research, the (lack of) data collection and protection standards, and the public interest vs business objectives of social media companies. Panelists Robert Monarch (Apple) Deen Freelon (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill) Rebekah Tromble (George Washington University) 26 February 2021, 7 AM PT/10 AM ET/4 PM CET This Panel will take place in Zoom. Join Zoom Meetinghttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/68053230418?pwd=M2ZNTFJLRUxxbmw3SFkvUDFvNlFPZz09 Meeting ID: 680 5323 0418Passcode: 293617 If you have any questions, please contact Katrine Herold at katrine.herold@sodas.ku.dk"
"""Government Debt and Fiscal Policy after COVID-19: Global Challenges"", debate with Niels Thygesen and Lorenzo Codogno";"Arranged by The Department of Economics and Danmarks Nationalbank within CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-03-03";"12:00";"2021-03-03";"13:15";"Via zoom ";"Danmarks Nationalbank and the University of Copenhagen is hosting a roundtable with Niels Christoffer Thygesen (University of Copenhagen and European Fiscal Board) and Lorenzo Codogno (LSE and LC Macro Advisors)";"Niels Christoffer Thygesen is a Professor Emeritus of International Economics at the University of Copenhagen and Chair of the European Fiscal Board. He has also worked for the Danish government, Harvard’s Development Advisory Service, and the OECD. Over his career he acted as adviser to the Governor of Danmarks Nationalbank, Chair of the Danish Economic Council and member of various expert groups on European monetary and financial integration - the subject area of most of his research and publications. He studied at the University of Copenhagen, where he obtained a PhD, and Harvard University.Lorenzo Codogno has since 2015 been the founder and Chief Economist of the economic consulting business LC Macro Advisors Ltd. He is currently a Senior Fellow of the LUISS School of European Political Economy in Rome and professor in practice at the London School of Economics. Prior to joining LSE, Lorenzo was chief economist and director general at the Treasury Department of the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance from May 2006 to February 2015.Program Committee: Federico Ravenna (Head of Research, Danmarks Nationalbank) and Emiliano Santoro (Danmarks Nationalbank Bicentenary Chair in Economics, University of Copenhagen)"
"Andri Chassamboulli, University of Cyprus";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-03-05";"14:15";"2021-03-05";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""TBD"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""TBD"" Contact person: Birthe Larsen"
"James Stock, Harvard University";"Distinguished Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-03-09";"12:00";"2021-03-09";"13:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes"". Distinguished Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes"" Abstract Policy makers often express concern about the impact of carbon taxes on employment and GDP. Focusing on European countries that have implemented carbon taxes over the past 30 years, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of these taxes on GDP and employment growth rates for various specifications and samples. Our point estimates suggest a zero to modest positive impact on GDP and total employment growth rates. More importantly, we find no robust evidence of a negative effect of the tax on employment or GDP growth. We examine evidence on whether the positive effects might stem from countries that used the carbon tax revenues to reduce other taxes; while the evidence is consistent with this view, it is inconclusive. We also consider the impact of the taxes on emission reductions and find a cumulative reduction on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO2 tax covering 30% of emissions. We argue that reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based U.S. carbon tax since European carbon taxes do not include in the tax base those sectors with the lowest marginal costs of carbon pollution abatement. Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Presentation on Social Data Science";"It-vest - samarbejdende universiteter ";"2021-03-10";"09:00";"2021-03-10";"12:00";"Zoom";"Morten Axel Petersen to present at conference on Digitalization and Digital Skills";"Professor of anthropology and director of SODAS, Morten Axel Pedersen, will be giving a presentation on Social Data Science at the conference “Digitalization and Digital Skills”, Wednesday 10 March 2021 from 9:00-12:00 on Zoom. Go to the conference website to read more and see a list of presenters Participation is free, but registration is needed."
"Patrick Kofod Mogensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2021-03-10";"10:00";"";"";"pr. Zoom";"Patrick Kofod Mogensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays in Dynamic Economics"" ";"Patrick Kofod Mogensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays in Dynamic Economics"" Kandidat Patrick Kofod Mogensen Titel:""Essays in Dynamic Economics"" Tid og sted: 10. marts 2021 kl. 10:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/66802872236 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Fedor Iskhakov, Australian National University Associate Professor Fane Naja Groes, Copenhagen Business School Abstract This dissertation contains three self-contained chapters. They are united by the dynamic economic models that are either studied theoretically or applied empirically. The first two were written in collaboration with co-authors.The first chapter is about the theoretical properties of the value function when solving discrete time, discrete choice dynamic programming problems using sieves to approximate the value function. The second chapter is about the incentives and dynamics that governs students’ progression and work choices. Using a dynamic structural model we explore behaviorof university students in Denmark and look into why students generally do not finish on time. We use the model to evaluate a number of counterfactual policies affecting university students. The third chapter derives equilibrium conditions for directional dynamic games and shows how to solve them using homotopy continuation methods for systems ofmultivariate polynomials in the complete information formulation of the games and interval arithmetic for the incomplete information games.Chapter 1 – Solving Dynamic Discrete Choice Models Using Smoothing and Sieve Methods with Dennis Kristensen, Jong-Myun Moon, and Bertel Schjerning (Forthcoming in Journal of Econometrics)We propose to combine smoothing, simulations and sieve approximations to solve for either the integrated or expected value function in a general class of dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models. We use importance sampling to approximate the Bellman operators defining the two functions. The random Bellman operators, and therefore also the correspondingsolutions, are generally non-smooth which is undesirable. To circumvent this issue, we introduce smoothed versions of the random Bellman operators and solve for the corresponding smoothed value functions using sieve methods. We also show that one can avoid using sieves by generalizing and adapting the “self-approximating” method to our setting. We providean asymptotic theory for both approximate solution methods and show that they converge with square root-N-rate, where N is number of Monte Carlo draws, towards Gaussian processes. We examine their performance in practice through a set of numerical experiments and find that both methods perform well with the sieve method being particularly attractive in terms of computational speed and accuracy.Chapter 2 – Student Choices, Incentives, and Labor Markets Outcomes: The Case of Delayed Graduationwith Bjørn Bjørnsson Meyer. In this chapter, we set up a dynamic choice model describing how various pecuniary and nonpecuniary incentives influence university students’ decisions on part-time work, dropout, and delayed graduation. We estimate the model using Danish register micro data combined with administrative data from the country’s largest university. Counterfactual simulations using the estimated model show that: (i) About half of the average delay in time-to-graduationcan be explained by students following economic incentives to prepare for the labor market with work experience. The other half is due to a range of factors, such as income through part-time work and grants and the cost of effort for heavy course load. (ii) Cutting financial aid with one year reduces average time-to-graduation by 0.3 year, but also increases dropout.Chapter 3 – Equilibrium Conditions and Solution Methods for Directional Dynamic Oligopoly Games In this paper, I derive equilibrium conditions for sub-stages in directional dynamic games with different model specifications in terms of number of actions, number of players, and exogenous (non-)directional states. I show how to use these to solve for all Markov PerfectEquilibria using Recursive Lexicographical Search. I add to the existing literature by deriving the needed equilibrium conditions needed to solve these games, and provide details on how to solve the sub-stages. I show how to solve the system of multivariate polynomial equations in complete information games using all-solution methods and propose a way to solve the more complex system of equations using interval arithmetic in incomplete information versions of some of the games. Full solution methods are important if the aim is to characterize the potential market configurations that can obtain, or if the goal is to estimate structural parameters in a model of dynamic, strategic interaction."
"Ana Maria Santacreu, Saint Louis FED";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-03-12";"14:15";"2021-03-12";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""International Technology Diffusion: A Gravity Approach"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""International Technology Diffusion: A Gravity Approach"" Abstract This paper investigates empirically the determinants of international technology licensing using data for 61 countries during 1995-2012. A multi-country one-sector model of innovation and diffusion with perfect enforcement of IPR yields a structural gravity equation for bilateral royalty payments as a function of economic fundamentals. The gravity equation is estimated using nonlinear methods. The model’s fundamentals account for 45% of the variation in royalty payments. Other factors such as imperfect IPR protection and a country’s production structure account for a substantial fraction of the unexplained variation, especially in developing countries. A back-of-the-envelop calculation suggests that perfect IPR enforcement in China would have led to 20% more technology transfers from the United States. Contact person: Birthe Larsen"
"Petr Sedlacek, Oxford University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-03-19";"14:15";"2021-03-19";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Up-or-Out Dynamics and Aggregate Growth"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Up-or-Out Dynamics and Aggregate Growth"" Abstract Micro-data evidence suggests that firm selection and growth is largely driven by demand-side factors. We build this feature into a model of endogenous firm-level innovation, productivity growth and reallocation. The interaction between demand and productivity growth gives rise to a new economic force: the Firm-Level Market Size (FiLMS) effect. We show analytically that the FiLMS effect can lead to over-investment in R&D. Using aggregated firm-level data to parametrize our model, we show that – contrary to many existing studies - our economy features over-investment in R&D and that its responsiveness to R&D policies vastly differs when demand-side factors are ignored at the firm-level. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, Harvard University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-03-26";"14:15";"2021-03-26";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""The 2000s Housing Cycle With 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View"" Abstract We re-examine the 2000s housing cycle with the benefit of a decade of additional data following the boom and bust. At the city level, areas with the largest price increases during the boom had the largest busts, but have also had faster growth during the ``""rebound'' period since the bust ended. As a result, these areas have also had the largest price appreciation over the 25 year period including the boom, bust, and subsequent rebound. Long-run population, income, and rent growth all correlate positively with a larger house price boom, and these correlations remain intact in instrumental variable specifications using plausibly exogenous shifters of population and income. We interpret the boom in a learning model in which the combination of over-optimism about fundamental-driven house price increases generates a mania and foreclosures generate a crash, but where fundamental changes to local areas explains both short and long-run changes. Joint with Adam Guren and Tim McQuade Contact person: Daphne Skandalis"
"SODAS Panel Series: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in (Social Data) Science";"";"2021-04-09";"11:00";"2021-04-09";"12:30";"";"Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in (Social Data) Science Ramon Amaro (University College London)Natalie Schluter (IT University of Copenhagen)Somdeep Sen (Roskilde University)";"Panel 3 Topic: Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion in (Social Data) Science Panel description: Like much of the societies that it is embedded in, social data science needs to grapple with questions of diversity, equity, and inclusion if it wants to realize to its full potential. This panel will focus on the what these questions and issues are as well as on potential solutions in social data science and beyond. The discussion will touch upon the de facto and ideal foci of DEI initiatives, their impact and failures to date, promising avenues for progress, and the role of sciences as a mere mirror or avant-garde for societal developments. Panelists Ramon Amaro (University College London) Natalie Schluter (IT University of Copenhagen) Somdeep Sen (Roskilde University) 9 April 2021, 11:00 -12:30 This panel will take place in Zoom. Join Zoom Meetinghttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/68304740404?pwd=TDN0N0JmSysyVEkyRkdvMVZRZ2todz09 Meeting ID: 683 0474 0404Passcode: 310522 If you have any questions, please contact Katrine Herold at katrine.herold@sodas.ku.dk "
"Alisdair McKay, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-04-09";"14:15";"2021-04-09";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy"" Abstract The prevailing neo-Wicksellian view holds that the central bank’s objective is to track the natural rate of interest (r∗), which itself is largely exogenous to monetary policy. We challenge this view using a fixed-cost model of durable consumption demand, in which expansionary monetary policy prompts households to accelerate purchases of durable goods. This yields an intertemporal trade-off in aggregate demand as encouraging households to increase durable holdings today leaves fewer households acquiring durables going forward. Interest rates must be kept low to support demand going forward, so accommodative monetary policy today reduces r∗ in the future. We show that this mechanism is quantitatively important in explaining the persistently low level of real interest rates and r∗ after the Great Recession. (Joint with Johannes F. Wieland, U.C. San Diego, NBER) Read full paper: ""Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy"" Contact person: Patrick Moran"
"DISTRACT seminar with Mariek Vanden Abeele";"";"2021-04-16";"11:00";"2021-04-16";"12:00";"https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/4100465911?pwd=YnBqdTFPc1JXd1NjSE9CVURHdWJTQT09 ";"DISTRACT seminar with Mariek Vanden Abeele: Digital Wellbeing in a Culture of Ubiquitous Connectivity: Towards a Dynamic Pathway Model (DISCONNECT)";"Digital Wellbeing in a Culture of Ubiquitous Connectivity: Towards a Dynamic Pathway Model (DISCONNECT) Mobile connectivity advances and threatens our autonomy: Smartphones enable us to perform our social roles, manage our social networks and access personalised information and services independent from time and place constraints. But smartphones also exert direct control over our behaviour via the device’s reward infrastructure that stimulates addictive usage, and indirect control via normative pressure to be available and responsive. This mobile connectivity paradox prevents people from attaining a state of digital wellbeing. The urgency of this issue is visible in the myriad of (non-)technological interventions that aim to help us re-gain control over our digital media use, such as digital detox programs and digital tools that help disconnect. Current scholarship insufficiently integrates psychological, technological and social perspectives and fails to account for the dynamic nature of digital wellbeing. Building on the computational turn in social sciences and the digital ethnographic turn in online culture studies, this research project develops an integrative pathway model to digital wellbeing by embracing a multi-method and multi-paradigmatic research design that unveils radically new insights of (1) which unique constellations of person-, device- and context-specific factors lead to digital wellbeing, (2) how these constellations produce individual understandings of digital wellbeing, and (3) the implications of digital wellbeing interventions. In addition, this research project brings new methodological toolboxes into the field that advance the study of both digital wellbeing and other phenomena related to digital media use. Armed with new evidence, users, technology developers and policy makers will more likely be able to make our relationship with technology happier and healthier. The project combines (1) traditional data sources (survey and interview data) with (2) behavioural data gathered via smartphone logging and (3) dynamic data on users’ momentary states and contexts gathered via mobile experience sampling. The DISCONNECT project is funded by an ERC Starting Grant. Join via Zoom:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/4100465911?pwd=YnBqdTFPc1JXd1NjSE9CVURHdWJTQT09"
"Ralph Ossa, University of Zurich";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-04-16";"14:15";"2021-04-16";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Are Trade Agreements good for you?"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Are Trade Agreements good for you?"" Abstract We examine how deep agreements on domestic regulations affect welfare in a world where such agreements are influenced by producer lobbies. The answer to this question depends in a critical way on whether the agreement focuses on product standards or on production regulations. International cooperation on product standards can decrease welfare, and this is more likely to happen when producer lobbies are stronger. On the other hand, international cooperation on production regulations tends to enhance welfare when lobbying pressures are strong. A key determinant of the welfare impact of deep agreements is whether the interests of producer lobbies in different countries are aligned or in conflict: the former situation tends to occur in the case of product standards, while the latter situation tends to occur in the case of production regulations. Joint with Giovanni Maggi (RR at the AER) Contact person: Morten Olsen"
"Thiemo Fetzer, Warwick University";"Department of Economics";"2021-04-19";"10:00";"2021-04-19";"11:30";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""How Big is the Media Multiplier? Evidence from Dyadic News Data"" Abstract This paper uses novel data to show how the media amplifies the economic impact of newsworthy events - the media multiplier. Specifically, we combine monthly aggregated and anonymized card spending data from 114 card issuing countries in 5 destination countries (Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia, Israel and Morocco) with a large corpus of news coverage of violent events in these destinations. To define and quantify the media multiplier we estimate a model of how media coverage helps shape beliefs about risks. When a country is perceived as dangerous by all potential visitors, aggregate spending falls by 53 percent with more than half of this effect due to the media multiplier. Contact person: Christian Schultz"
"DGPE PhD course: Subjective Beliefs in Macroeconomics and Household Finance";"";"2021-04-19";"";"2021-04-22";"";"On-line";"Lecturers: Yueran Ma, Michael McMahon, Chris Roth, Johannes Wohlfart, Florian Zimmermann.";"Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI) and Department of Economics offer a five-day course on the empirical study of expectation formation in macroeconomics and finance. The course consists of a 3-days teaching block and attendance of a 2-days research workshop with internal and external speakers. A large part of of our course introduces students to the new emerging literature studying expectation formation of firms and consumers using experimental methods. However, we will also discuss the use of observational data, such as data from existing household surveys, and the use of high frequency data as well as textual analysis to better understand expectation formation. Topics include the formation of expectations about inflation, GDP growth, house prices and stock returns. Moreover, we discuss the role of expectations in shaping economic and financial behavior of households and firms. Part of the course will focus on central bank communication and its role in expectation formation."
"DISTRACT seminar with Paula Helm";"";"2021-04-23";"11:00";"2021-04-23";"12:00";"Zoom";"DISTRACT seminar with Paula Helm - Problematic use and addictive design – Towards distributed responsibility";"Problematic use and addictive design – Towards distributed responsibility Online manipulation, excessive gaming and porn consumption, loss of control over time on device, concentration disorders - all these problems are closely linked to the proliferation of information and communication technologies. The generic term for this has become ""Problematic Internet Use"" (PIU). PIU encompasses all kinds of ""repeated impairing behaviors"" in relation to the internet that lead to negative consequences in daily life. More recently, PIU has sparked debates in influential institutions such as the WHO, the American Psychiatric Association, and some federal departments of labour and health. At issue are questions such as: At what point should certain patterns be classified as pathogenic? How are these patterns to be dealt with: how are they to be treated? How to be avoided? Last but not least: Who has to bear the responsibility for this?Two very different perspectives currently dominate these difficult debates. In psychiatric discourse, PIU is studied primarily at the level of the individual user, and it is at this level that solutions in the form of medication or behavioural therapy are explored (Spada 2014, Aboujaoude 2010). In contrast, work from fields such as critical computing, digital anthropology, and technology ethics suggests that the designs of many applications, as well as the utility functions they are intended to serve, are also problematic (Susser/Nissenbaum/Rössler 2019; Williams 2018; Dow Schüll 2012).In my talk, I will think these two perspectives together. In doing so, I draw on work from the field of STS as well as on ideas and practices performed by recent media resistance movements. My goal is not only to capture the complex and relational structure of PIU, but also to move away from a one-sided understanding of responsibility. By combining a Neo Republican understanding of responsibility with a New Materialist one, I make clear why it would be fatal to limit ourselves to a one-sided understanding of responsibility either way. Rather, what we need in this context is a triangular understanding of responsibility. This triangle distributes responsibility between users, developers, and the technologies themselves. Please join us on Zoom:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/4100465911?pwd=YnBqdTFPc1JXd1NjSE9CVURHdWJTQT09 "
"Loris Rubini, University of New Hampshire";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-04-23";"14:15";"2021-04-23";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Resource Misallocation from Childcare Policies"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Resource Misallocation from Childcare Policies"" Abstract Childcare costs limit the capacity of low-income families to work. Governments have designed various policies to reduce these costs, although some may have unforeseen negative general equilibrium consequences. This paper focuses on one law in Chile that forces firms with more than 19 female workers to pay for childcare. We evaluate its effects through a calibrated model that features firm and household heterogeneity. Removing the policy would increase GDP by 3.4%. The distributional impacts are sizeable, with losses of 18% among families losing coverage to gains of up to 20% for other families in consumption equivalent units. We evaluate two alternative policies: one currently being considered by the Chilean government that finances childcare through a labor tax, and another where all firms must pay for childcare irrespective of size. Both policies would provide gains for all households, with larger improvements in the former (GDP increases by 3.5%) and welfare gains for the poorest of up to 60%. Contact person: Martin Gonzalez-Eiras"
"Esteban Garcia Miralles forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet";"2021-04-28";"15:00";"";"";"ZOOM";"Esteban Garcia Miralles forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Retirement, Savings, Taxation, and Skill Formation"".";"Esteban Garcia Miralles forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on Retirement, Savings, Taxation, and Skill Formation"" Kandidat Esteban Garcia Miralles Titel:""Essays on Retirement, Savings, Taxation, and Skill Formation"" Tid og sted: 28. april 2021 kl. 15:00. Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Meltem Daysal, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Rafael Lalive, University of Lausanne Associate Professor Maria Fitzpatrick, Cornell University Abstract: The Ph.D. dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters. The first two chapters study how the design of public pension systems affect individuals’ behavior. The first chapter studies how pension eligibility ages impact the retirement behavior of couples. The second chapter explores how public pension provision affects private savings. The third chapter studies how optimal inheritance taxation depends on the social welfare function assumed and on the underlying individual heterogeneity. The fourth chapter explores human capital formation by estimating the causal effect of parental shocks on their children’s non-cognitive skills. Chapter 1: Joint Retirement of Couples: Evidence from Discontinuities in Denmark (with Jonathan M. Leganza). We study joint retirement behavior and document underlying mechanisms. Exploiting administrative data and the discontinuous increase in retirement when individuals reach pension eligibility age, we estimate sizable spillover effects to their spouses. We show that age differences within couples are crucial determinants of joint retirement, which is primarily driven by older spouses working longer. Controlling for these age differences reveals that female spouses respond more, even controlling for relative earnings. Relative earnings play a role consistent with collective models of household behavior. A complementary analysis shows that a reform increasing eligibility ages induces similar spillovers, suggesting no significant adjustment costs. Chapter 2: Public Pensions and Private Savings (with Jonathan M. Leganza). How does the provision of public pension benefits impact savings? We answer this question in the context of a Danish reform that increased social security eligibility ages. Using administrative data and a regression discontinuity design, we identify the causal effects of the policy. We find a lack of anticipatory savings responses after the announcement of the reform, whereas we find large increases in savings when delayed benefit eligibility induces extended employment. Individuals continue to work and continue to save in the same type of retirement accounts and at the same rate, highlighting how employer default contribution policies mediate responses to national reforms. Chapter 3: The Crucial Role of Social Welfare Criteria and Individual Heterogeneity for Optimal Inheritance Taxation. This paper extends the calibrations of Piketty and Saez (2013) to unveil the importance of the assumed social welfare criteria and its interplay with individual heterogeneity on optimal inheritance taxation. I calibrate the full social optimal tax rate and find that it is highly sensitive to the assumed social welfare criteria. The optimal tax rate ranges from negative (under a utilitarian criterion) to positive and large (even assuming joy of giving motives). I also calibrate the optimal tax rate by percentile of the distribution of bequest received, as in Piketty and Saez, but accounting for heterogeneity in wealth and labor income. This leads to significant variation in the optimal tax rate among zero-bequest receivers, contrary to their finding of a constant tax rate. Chapter 4: Are Children's Socio-Emotional Skills Shaped by Parental Health Shocks? (with Miriam Gensowski). Child skills are shaped by parental investments. When parents experience a health shock, their investments and therefore their children’s skills may be affected. This paper estimates causal effects of severe parental health shocks on child socio-emotional skills. Drawing on a large-scale survey linked to hospital records, we find that socio-emotional skills of 11-16 year-olds are robust to parental health shocks, with the exception of significant but very small reductions in Conscientiousness. We study short-run effects with a child-fixed effects model, and dynamics around the shocks with event studies. A sibling comparison suggests some long-run build-up of effects of early shocks."
"Talk by Professor Kenneth Benoit, London School of Economics and Political Science";"SODAS";"2021-05-07";"11:00";"2021-05-07";"12:00";"Zoom";"Predicting Left-Right Positions from Hand-Coded Content Analysis Using Machine LearningProf. Kenneth Benoit, LSE";"Kenneth Benoit, Professor of Computational Social Science in the Department of Methodology at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Titel: PREDICTING LEFT-RIGHT POSITIONS FROM HAND-CODED CONTENT ANALYSIS USING MACHINE LEARNING Abstract: The Manifesto Project’s widely used left-right index of party policy positions (RILE), built from human-coded sentences from party manifestos, can be predicted using machine learning. We demonstrate this using some simple classifiers to show that using these conservative approaches as a baseline, performance is already as good as human coders. It works in multiple languages. Using transfer learning, we also show how a model trained on coded manifesto sentences can be used on new texts to predict left-right positions, and validate these with independent survey-based evidence. About:Kenneth Benoit's current research focuses on computational, quantitative methods for processing large amounts of textual data, mainly political texts and social media. Current interest span from the analysis of big data, including social media, and methods of text mining. His substantive research in political science focuses on comparative party competition, the European Parliament, electoral systems, and the effects of campaign spending. His other methodological interests include general statistical methods for the social sciences, especially those relating to measurement. Recent data large-scale measurement projects in which he has been involved include estimating policy positions of political parties through crowd-sourced data, expert surveys, manifesto coding, and text analysis. Join via Zoom:https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/68375572787?pwd=ak1ueE5tRFA1cStqaHRidFFQN2ROQT09 Meeting ID: 683 7557 2787Passcode: 999999"
"SODAS Panel Series on Funding, Access, Regulations ";"SODAS";"2021-05-07";"12:00";"2021-05-07";"13:40";"Zoom";"Panel 4: Funding, Access, Regulations – What shapes what research gets done?";"Panel 4 Topic: Funding, Access, Regulations – What shapes what research gets done? Panel description: The promise of novel data sources and methods is what drives the emergence of the field of Social Data Science and many current innovations in industry and technology. But in the face of the potential inherent in these data and methods, established challenges such as funding limitations persist and new hurdles for research such as proprietary data emerge. This panel brings together experts with experience in private research, public funding, and private-public partnerships and will focus on the factors shaping what research gets done and can get done in the digital age including funding, regulation, and data access. Panelists Luca Aiello (IT University of Copenhagen) David Dreyer Lassen (Copenhagen University Simon Hegelich (TU Munich) 7 May 2021, 12:00 -13:40 This panel will take place in Zoom. Join Zoom Meetinghttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/66749318945?pwd=UXVSOTQvcHpNcGwvckhYV0l2YVBBQT09 Meeting ID: 667 4931 8945Passcode: 433258 If you have any questions, please contact Katrine Herold at katrine.herold@sodas.ku.dk"
"Andreas Mueller, Austin University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-05-07";"14:15";"2021-05-07";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Job Search Behavior Among the Employed and Non‐Employed"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Job Search Behavior Among the Employed and Non‐Employed"" Abstract We develop a unique survey that focuses on the job search behavior of individuals regard- less of their labor force status and field it annually starting in 2013. We use our survey to study the relationship between search effort and outcomes for the employed and non-employed. Three important facts stand out: (1) on-the-job search is pervasive, and is more intense at the lower rungs of the job ladder; (2) the employed are about four times more efficient than the unemployed in job search; and (3) the employed receive better job offers than the unemployed. We set up an on-the-job search model with endogenous search effort, calibrate it to fit our new facts, and find that the search effort of the employed is highly elastic. We show that search effort substantially amplifies labor market responses to job separation and matching efficiency shocks over the business cycle. (Joint with J Faberman, A Sahin and G Topa, R&R Econometrica) Contact person: Daphne Skandalis"
"Joseba Martinez, London Business School";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-05-14";"14:15";"2021-05-14";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Automation Potential and Diffusion"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Automation Potential and Diffusion"" Abstract We introduce a novel methodology to measure the invention and diffusion of labor-replacing technology in the US economy. First, we measure the relevance of US patents introduced from 1900-2020 to work tasks performed by human workers using a natural language processing algorithm. After controlling for the confounding effects of the evolution of language, we obtain a measure that we call the automation potential of newly introduced technology: the potential for that technology to eventually replace human workers in the performance of tasks. In a local projections framework, we project long-horizon changes in task demand onto automation potential and find large negative effects, suggesting i) that our measure captures the development of automation technology, and ii) that such technology diffuses slowly into the economy. Contact person: Katja Mann"
"SODAS Panel Series on Publication incentives and academic performance indicators.";"SODAS";"2021-05-21";"11:00";"2021-05-21";"12:30";"Zoom";"Panel 5 on Publication incentives and academic performance indicators.";"SODAS Panel Series on Publication incentives and academic performance indicators. Panel 5 Topic: Publication incentives and academic performance indicators. Panelists: Roberta Sinatra, Associate Professor, Computer Science, ITU Copenhagen Mathias W. Nielsen, Associate Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen Leon Derczynski, Associate Professor, Computer Science, ITU Copenhagen Join Zoom Meetinghttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64742798972?pwd=SWdSZURYb3dzbHZiaU9jdFZQSUxqQT09 Meeting ID: 647 4279 8972Passcode: 801132 "
"Thomas le Barbanchon, Bocconi University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-05-21";"14:15";"2021-05-21";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Job search behaviour during the COVID-19 crisis : New evidence from Sweden "". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Job search behaviour during the COVID-19 crisis : New evidence from Sweden "" Abstract This paper measures the job-search responses to the COVID-19 pandemic using real-time data on vacancy postings and job ad views on Sweden’s largest online job board. First, new vacancy postings drop by 40%, similar to the US. Second, job seekers respond by searching less intensively, to the extent that effective labour market tightness increases during the first three months after the COVID outbreak. After the initial shock, labor market tightness increases again. Third, job seekers redirect their search towards less severely hit occupations, beyond what changes in vacancies would predict. We then build a search-and-matching model with endogenous search intensity to explore the mechanisms behind this labor market shift. We find that the negative productivity effect is temporary, while negative shifts on labor supply are more persistent. Joint with Lena Hensvik (Uppsala) Roland Rathelot (Warwick) Contact person: Daphne Skandalis"
"DISTRACT seminar with Odysseus Stone";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2021-05-28";"11:00";"2021-05-28";"12:00";"Zoom";"What we care about when we care about attention: Insights from phenomenology and recent philosophy of attention";"Title:What we care about when we care about attention: Insights from phenomenology and recent philosophy of attention Abstract:Attention is something we care about. Two areas of public life where this fact about attention is currently particularly salient are a) the ongoing debates about the attention economy, and b) the explosion of interest in (and backlash against) mindfulness meditation. These debates are replete various normative claims about attention, claims that speak to the important role that attention plays in our lives. Such debates have, however, for the most part been carried out in relative isolation from philosophical reflection on attention. I show how reflections on the nature of attention from phenomenology (e.g., Gurwitsch, Merleau-Ponty), and from recent analytic philosophy (e.g., Watzl) help clarify the issues at stake. These authors share in rejecting various popular ways of thinking about attention—as information-pruning, as spotlight, as limited resource, etc.—and instead think of attention in terms of structuring psychological life. I spell out a few implications for the debates about mindfulness and the attention economy. Odysseus Stone is a PhD fellow with the Center for Subjectivity research (CFS) at the University of Copenhagen. The talk is open for anyone interested via zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/61844378789 "
"Pascaul Restrepo, Boston University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-05-28";"14:15";"2021-05-28";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality "". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Tasks, Automation, and the Rise in US Wage Inequality"" Abstract We document that a large portion (between 50% and 70%) of changes in the US wage structure over the last four decades are accounted for by the relative wage declines of worker groups specialized in routine tasks in industries experiencing rapid automation. We develop a conceptual framework where tasks across a number of industries are allocated to different types of labor and capital. Automation technologies expand the set of tasks performed by capital, displacing certain worker groups from employment opportunities for which they have a comparative advantage. This framework yields a simple equation linking wage changes of a demographic group to the task displacement it experiences. We report robust evidence in favor of this relationship and show that regression models incorporating task displacement explain much of the changes in educational and gender differentials between 1980 and 2016. We show that our task displacement variable captures the effects of automation technologies (and to a lesser degree offshoring) rather than those of rising market power, markups or deunionization, which themselves do not appear to play a major role in US wage inequality. We also propose a methodology for evaluating the full general equilibrium effects of task displacement (which include ripple effects as tasks are reallocated across different groups, changes in industry composition, and output expansion). Our quantitative evaluation based on this methodology explains how major changes in wage inequality can go hand-in-hand with modest productivity gains. Joint with th D. Acemoglu Contact person: Morten Olsen"
"CANCELLED - DISTRACT seminar with Alexander Taylor";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2021-06-04";"11:00";"2021-06-04";"12:00";"Zoom";"Are digital devices turning us into ‘data preppers’?";"CANCELLED Title:Are digital devices turning us into ‘data preppers’? Abstract:Anticipating the failure of digital devices has become part of the fabric of everyday life in the digital world. With their fragile components and ever-shortening lifespans, digital technologies increasingly require their users to take preparatory action if they want to avoid losing their precious photos, files and other data when device failure should inevitably arise. Programs like Apple’s ‘Time Machine’ or Windows’ ‘Backup and Restore’ enable users to quickly and easily back-up their computers onto external hard drives, while cloud storage services back-up our devices automatically when a Wi-Fi connection is available. In this talk I will approach practices of ‘backing-up’ through the lens of preparedness, asking how a focus on ‘data prepping’ might extend current explorations of human-technology and human-data relations. Alexander Taylor is lecturer at the Department of School of Media and Film, University of Winchester, UK."
"Philipp Kircher, Cornell University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-06-04";"14:15";"2021-06-04";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""TBA"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""TBA"" Contact person: Antoine Bertheau"
"Mette Rasmussen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2021-06-04";"16:00";"";"";"CSS 26.2.21/Zoom";"Mette Rasmussen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Empirical Essays on the Effectiveness of Active Labor Market Policies:Caseworkers, Vocational Training & Statistical Profiling""";"Mette Rasmussen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Empirical Essays on the Effectiveness of Active Labor Market Policies: Caseworkers, Vocational Training & Statistical Profiling"" Kandidat Mette Rasmussen Titel: ""Empirical Essays on the Effectiveness of Active Labor Market Policies: Caseworkers, Vocational Training & Statistical Profiling"" Tid og sted: 4. juni 2021 kl. 16:00 i lokale CSS 26.2.21.Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret pr. Zoom følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Søren Leth-Petersen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Sally Sadoff, Rady School of Management, UC San Diego, USA Professor Bas van der Klaauw, VU University Amsterdam, Holland Abstract This PhD dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters that all study how different types of active labor market policies can help unemployed jobseekers transition out of unemployment. All three chapters rely on novel micro data provided by the Danish Agency for Labor Market and Recruitment. The first chapter investigates the importance of caseworker quality for jobseeker transitions out of unemployment. I combine a novel data set on meetings between jobseekers and caseworkers with rich Danish administrative data. To identify the individual impacts of caseworkers, I exploit that many jobcenters assign caseworkers to jobseekers based on their birthday. I verify that this effectively corresponds to a quasi-random assignment mechanism. The chapter offers three sets of results. First, I find that variation in caseworker quality is substantial and can explain about 6% of the heterogeneity in unemployment spells within a jobcenter and year. Assignment to a caseworker, who is one standard deviation above the mean, reduces the unemployment spell by about one week. Second, I find no smoking gun suggesting that this is at the expense of subsequent labor market performance. Rather, the caseworkers that reduce unemployment spell length place the jobseekers in jobs that are of similar quality, in terms of wages, hours and stability. As a result, these jobseekers have on average accumulated an additional 7,500 DKK (1,200 USD) and 35 working hours after two years. Third, I show that the variation in caseworker quality not necessarily is driven by unobserved personality traits only. Namely, I find that the high quality caseworkers tend to be more 'pro-active': They meet earlier and more frequently with the jobseekers, assign them earlier to training and tend to increase their use of network and unsolicited job search. Overall, this paper suggests that it would be Pareto improving to teach all caseworkers these pro-active strategies. The second chapter (co-authored with Anders Humlum) investigates whether vocational training of jobseekers can help them re-attach to the labor market. To investigate this, we combine the novel data on caseworkers from the first chapter with new data on caseworker assignments to training. Specifically, we estimate the effectiveness of vocational training using a caseworker leniency instrument. This instrument exploits that i) jobseekers are quasi-randomly assigned to caseworkers, and that ii) caseworkers differ in their propensities to assign jobseekers to vocational training. Using our caseworker leniency instrument, we cannot reject that training courses on average have zero impacts on labor market outcomes after one year. In contrast, OLS regressions show strong negative correlations between training and employment, indicating that it is jobseekers with adverse job prospects who select into training. To investigate whether vocational training is more beneficial for workers who are exposed to rapid structural change, we zoom in on jobseekers whose previous jobs were in manufacturing. Although the estimates become more noisy, we find economically significant long-run benefits to vocational training for former manufacturing workers. This suggests that there is large heterogeneity in the benefits of training, which potentially could be reaped by better targeting of courses to workers. The third chapter (co-authored with Nikolaj Harmon and Robert Mahlstedt) evaluates the effect of using statistical profiling tools to inform workers about their individual risk of long-term unemployment. In Denmark, a Machine Learning algorithm informs both newly unemployed jobseekers and their caseworkers of whether they belong to a group with a high risk of remaining unemployed for more than six months. Leveraging age discontinuities in the Machine Learning algorithm, we use a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of being reported as being in high risk. We estimate that jobseekers marginally flagged as high-risk are between 5-14% less likely to be unemployed after 6 months. After 12 months however this difference has disappeared. Unfortunately, standard validity checks suggest that the identifying assumptions of our regression discontinuity design may not hold. While our results thus points to statistical prediction tools as a promising way to speed up unemployment exit, more evaluation is necessary to reach any firm conclusion."
"DISTRACT seminar with Olivier Driessens";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2021-06-11";"11:00";"2021-06-11";"12:00";"Zoom";"""The in/visibility – in/attention complex: from collapse to intersection""";"Title: The in/visibility – in/attention complex: from collapse to intersection Abstract:Although visibility and attention have become central categories in the social sciences, their interrelationship is unclear and requires further theoretical consideration. Some scholars discuss visibility in ways as if attention is naturally following—or not in the case of invisibility—, while others simply collapse both visibility and attention into either of those single categories. This leads to not only analytical confusion, but also a disregard of the different structures, agents and mechanisms that produce in/visibility and in/attention. Further, it produces sometimes rather simplistic linear thinking about the potential consequences of either visibility or attention, such as (mis)recognition and power. In response, I argue that visibility and attention are ontologically distinct categories that should be studied in tandem empirically. To improve the study of their varied interrelationships, I present the in/visibility-in/attention model. This model helps to map the different empirical manifestations at the nexus of in/visibility and in/attention and to take the dynamics of both in/visibility and in/attention equally seriously when studying a range of phenomena including privacy, distraction, provocation, celebrity or cancel culture. Olivier Driessens is Assistant Professor at the Department of Communication, University of Copenhagen. The seminar is open to the public via the following Zoom link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/61844378789 "
"Justin Bloesch, Harvard University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-06-11";"14:15";"2021-06-11";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Which workers earn more at productive firms? The Role of complementarities and Position Specificity"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Which workers earn more at productive firms? The Role of complementarities and Position Specificity"" Abstract This paper develops a theory of production complementarities and position specific skills to explain heterogeneous firm productivity-wage premia and wage dispersion across occupations. Workers are ""specific"" to a position if (i) positions are differentiated in their task content (ii) position outputs are complementary in production, and (iii) it is time consuming for the firm to replace a specific worker, incentivizing productive firms to pay higher wages in a model with turnover and imperfect contracts. Productivity wage premia arise due to complementarities rather than extensive margin labor supply elasticities, implying that steady-state premia depend on firm average labor productivity but not firm size. In Danish data, we estimate the effect of worker deaths on firm value added and profit by occupation groups, and we estimate wage premia via passthrough of productivity shocks, which support the main predictions of the model. We discuss implications for the effect of superstar firms on wage inequality, the college wage premium, and the gender wage gap. Contact person: Birthe Larsen"
"Martin Benedikt Busch forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2021-06-17";"14:00";"";"";"CSS 26.2.21/Zoom";"Martin Benedikt Busch forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""The Formation and Persistence of Perceptions Statistical Inference and Social Networks"" ";"Martin Benedikt Busch forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""The Formation and Persistence of Perceptions Statistical Inference and Social Networks"" Kandidat Martin Benedikt Bush Titel: ""The Formation and Persistence of Perceptions Statistical Inference and Social Networks"" Tid og sted: 17. juni 2021 kl. 14:00 i lokale CSS 26.2.21/ZOOM.Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret pr. Zoom følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/63467951266 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Nick Vikander, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Antonio Cabrales, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spanien Professor Friederike Mengel, Essex Universitet, UK AbstractOur decisions often depend on our subjective perceptions of the surrounding reality and we base our perceptions on the information we have available to us. Consider for instance our assessments of a variety of societal challenges we face, from immigration to inequality. Our perceptions of the severity of these problems depend on the information we extract from the networks around us, consisting of our friends, colleagues, and neighbors, among others. Importantly, our networks might not be representative of the broader population, they might be too small to make valid inferences, or we may not have the ability to process the information efficiently. This results in a gap between subjective perceptions and the objective reality, leading to unintended behavior affecting the individual and the society. To understand the implications of the gap between perception and reality, we need a better understanding of how people form perceptions and the underlying mechanisms creating this gap. We need to investigate the persistence of this gap and consider its long-term consequences. Finally, we may want to test if perceptions are malleable and design interventions to change behavior. This thesis comprises three self-contained articles that provide new insights on the formation of perceptions and their persistence using economic theory and experiments. The common theme in Chapter 1 and 2 is that agents in both models act as statisticians. Agents perform statistical inference given their information about others, the amount of information available, and heterogeneity in how they use information, to estimate an unknown but payoff-relevant state. The modeling approach allows us to show and disentangle how sample size and heterogeneity in agents’ use of information affects perception and behavior. In both chapters, the sample of data is not representative of the payoff-relevant state as sample selection (Chapter 1) or networks (Chapter 2) bias the data generating process. In Chapter 3, we illustrate how to manipulate perceptions and evaluate its long-term impact on behavior and welfare of subjects embedded in networks. In our laboratory experiment, we show that a simple nudge has long-term payoff consequences, and persistently changes the structure of relationships subjects build with each other over time. "
"SODAS Data Discussion 18 June 2021";"SODAS";"2021-06-18";"11:00";"2021-06-18";"12:00";"Zoom";"SODAS Data Discussion with Emil Chrisander and Snorre Frid-Nielsen.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. AuthorSnorre Frid-Nielsen, Postdoc, SODAS TitleIs Political Science Becoming More Pluralistic? A Bibliometric History AbstractThis paper examines the question of pluralism in political science historically and bibliometrically. While existing accounts have tended to focus on specific sub-disciplines or applied descriptive approaches, this paper utilizes large-scale bibliometric data and network analytical methods to systematically map the development of the entire discipline. Where existing bibliometric approaches tend to be limited to shorter time spans, this paper takes a wider historical perspective. Based on a novel data set comprising 347,736 research articles with 5,360,276 citations covering the time span of 1956-2019, the article studies the pluralism (or lack thereof) in Political Science research on three main dimensions. First, it examines the pluralism (or lack thereof) in the intellectual ancestors of political science using Reference Year Publication Spectroscopy which examines the reference frequency of seminal works. Second, it visualizes the rise and fall of research agendas, subfields, interdisciplinary engagements, and methodologies over time through a combination of dynamic network analysis and unsupervised machine learning of journal and author co-citation patterns. Third, it examines the pluralism of political science research in terms of author characteristics in political science journals, notably gender and nationality. AuthorEmil Chrisander TitleWhy Do Students Not Fully Reveal Their Preferences In Admissions Where Truth-Telling Is Weakly Optimal? AbstractRecent literature documents non-truthful preference reporting in strategy-proof mechanisms. In this paper, we analyze who report non-truthfully and why they report non-truthfully. We combine detailed registry data on applicants to higher education with survey answers about the admission process and personality. We provide clear evidence of the theory that students skip prominent programs for which they perceive admission to be unlikely or impossible. In addition, we demonstrate that such non-truthful reporting is driven by lack of feasible choice options, low self-confidence, pessimistic admission beliefs, and difficulties comprehending the admission process. Surprisingly, we find no evidence that age, gender, cognitive abilities or parents' SES affect non-truthful reporting. Finally, we show that non-truthful reporting has limited welfare implications because few of the non-truthful applicants would improve their matching outcome by reporting truthfully. Our results have implications for the modelling of preferences, information acquisition, and subjective admission beliefs in strategy-proof mechanisms. The SODAS Data Discussion will take place in Zoom from 11.00 am to 12.00 noon. Time: Jun 18, 2021 11:00 AM Copenhagen Join Zoom Meetinghttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64589835036?pwd=Rmk3Y1FKaE1QMlVtWDRPQW9XNFdpQT09 Meeting ID: 645 8983 5036Passcode: 794482 "
"SODAS Panel 6 ";"SODAS";"2021-06-25";"11:00";"2021-06-25";"12:30";"Zoom";"Topic: Wrap Up and Where to Go From Here";"SODAS Panel Series on Fairness in Science – Panel 6 Topic: Wrap Up and Where to Go From Here Panel description: After shining a light on issues in fairness in (social data) science from a host of different angles, it is time to review where we started and what insights we have gained throughout the panel series. In this panel, we will try to draw out some key lessons we can take from the discussions as well as reflect on the perspectives and issues we might have missed so far. Panelists• Samantha Breslin• Robert Böhm• Morten Axel Pedersen June 25, 2021, from 11:00 to 12:30 This panel will take place in Zoomhttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/68279630106?pwd=OFpKajZFUjU2UVFGN1Y4anZMK0tjQT09 Meeting ID: 682 7963 0106Passcode: 878946 If you have any questions, please contact Katrine Herold at katrine.herold@sodas.ku.dk"
"Simon Thinggaard Hetland forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2021-06-29";"15:30";"";"";"CSS 26.2.21/Zoom";"Simon Thinggaard Hetland forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalues"".";"Simon Thinggaard Hetland forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalues"" Kandidat Simon Thinggaard Hetland Titel: ""Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalues"". Tid og sted: 29. juni 2021 kl. 15:30 i lokale CSS 26.2.21/ZOOM.Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret pr. Zoom følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Mette Ejrnæs, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Nikolaus Hautsch, Universität Wien, Østrig Professor Giuseppe Cavaliere, ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - Università di Bologna, ItalienAbstractIn this thesis, we study a class of multivariate generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models, denoted the Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalue GARCH model. Multivariate GARCH models are useful for estimating and filtering time varying (co-)variances, which are used e.g. in empirical asset pricing, Markovitz-type portfolio optimization and value-at-risk estimation. GARCH models have long been a staple in empirical finance and financial econometrics. This thesis contains three self-contained chapters on the Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalue GARCH, covering large-sample properties and bootstrap-based inference.In the first chapter, The Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalue GARCH Model, we introduce the Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalue GARCH class of models, where the eigenvalues of the conditional covariance matrix are time varying. We provide new results on asymptotic theory for the Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, and for testing of reduced rank of the (G)ARCH loading matrices of the time-varying eigenvalues. The theory is applied to US data, where we find that the eigenvalue structure can be reduced similar to testing for the number in factors in volatility models. This chapter is jointly written with Anders Rahbek and Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen.The second chapter, Spectral Targeting Estimation of Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalue GARCH Models, investigates a two-step estimator of the Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalue GARCH model, combining (eigenvalue and -vector) targeting estimation with stepwise (univariate) estimation. This estimator is denoted the ``spectral targeting estimator''. We find that the estimator is consistent under finite second order moments, while asymptotic normality holds under finite fourth order moments. The estimator is especially well suited for modeling larger portfolios: we compare the empirical performance of the spectral targeting estimator to that of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for five portfolios of 25 assets. The spectral targeting estimator dominates in terms of computational complexity, being up to 57 times faster in estimation, while both estimators produce similar out-of-sample forecasts, indicating that the spectral targeting estimator is well suited for high-dimensional empirical applications.In the third and final chapter, Bootstrap-Based Inference and Testing in Multivariate Dynamic Conditional Eigenvalue GARCH Models, we study fixed-design bootstrap for quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate GARCH processes. We show, under fairly mild conditions, that the bootstrap Wald test statistic is consistent, conditional on the original data. The theoretically investigated fixed-design bootstrap is contrasted to a recursive bootstrap, and the asymptotic test statistic. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we find evidence that the fixed-design bootstrap is superior to the recursive bootstrap and the asymptotic test in small samples. In larger samples, both bootstrap designs and the asymptotic test share properties, as expected from the asymptotic theory. An empirical application illustrates the empirical merits of the bootstrap in multivariate GARCH models. The appealing theoretical properties, along with the excellent finite sample properties, suggest that the fixed-design bootstrap is an important tool for small sample inference in multivariate GARCH models. "
"Raffaele Saggio, University of British Columbia  ";"Department of Economics";"2021-06-30";"14:00";"2021-06-30";"15:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""It Ain't Where You're from, It's Where You're at: Hiring Origins, Firm Heterogeneity, and Wages"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""It Ain't Where You're from, It's Where You're at: Hiring Origins, Firm Heterogeneity, and Wages"" Abstract We develop a theoretically grounded extension of the two-way fixed effects model of Abowd et al. (1999) that allows firms to differ both in the wages they offer new hires and the wages required to poach their employees. Expected hiring wages are modeled as the sum of a worker fixed effect, a fixed effect for the “destination” firm hiring the worker, and a fixed effect for the “origin” firm, or labor market state, from which the worker was hired. This specification is shown to nest the reduced form for hiring wages delivered by semi-parametric formulations of the sequential auction model of Postel-Vinay and Robin (2002b) and its generalization in Bagger et al. (2014). Using Italian social security records that distinguish job quits from firings and layoffs, we find that origin effects explain only 0.7% of the variance of hiring wages among job movers, while destination effects explain more than 23% of the variance. Across firms, destination effects are more than 13 times as variable as origin effects. Interpreted through the lens of Bagger et al. (2014)’s model, this finding requires that workers possess implausibly strong bargaining strength. Studying a cohort of workers entering the Italian labor market in 2005, we find that differences in origin effects yield essentially no contribution to the evolution of the gender gap in hiring wages, while differences in destination effects explain the majority of the gap at the time of labor market entry. These results suggest that where a worker is hired from is relatively inconsequential for his or her wages in comparison to where he or she is currently employed. Read full paper: ""It Ain't Where You're from, It's Where You're at: Hiring Origins, Firm Heterogeneity, and Wages"" Read more about Raffaele Saggio Contact person: Casper Worm Hansen"
"Virtual EEA-ESEM Joint Congress 2021";"the European Economic Association, the Econometric Society & University of Copenhagen";"2021-08-23";"";"2021-08-27";"";"Virtual";"";" The conference consists of both the Annual Congress of the European Economic Association and the Econometric Society European Meeting, and it will take place at virtually due to the pandemic in the days 23-27 August 2021. More information about the conference. "
"Nikolaj Nielsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2021-09-03";"15:00";"";"";"CSS 26.2.21";"Nikolaj Nielsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""The Econometrics of Perturbed Utility and Demand Inversion""";"Nikolaj Nielsen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""The Econometrics of Perturbed Utility and Demand Inversion"" Kandidat Nikolaj Nielsen Titel: ""The Econometrics of Perturbed Utility and Demand Inversion"". Tid og sted: 3. september 2021 kl. 15:00 i lokale CSS 26.2.21 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Bertel Schjerning, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor XiaoXia Shi, University of Wisconsin, USA Professor Professor Aureo de Paula, University College London, UK AbstractThis thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. In the first chapter, written together with Mogens Fosgerau and Dennis Kristensen, we study the perturbed utility model of discrete choice. We derive simple regularity conditions for the resulting demand function to be well-behaved and invertible, and we use these properties to develop a simple and efficient estimation procedure for such models. In the second chapter, written with Mogens Fosgerau, we develop a new perturbed utility model of demand for differentiated options. Options are similar according to a set of characteristics, and similar options may be close substitutes or complements. In the third chapter, I develop an estimation procedure for dynamic discrete choice models. This estimator obtains the same computational advantages as the Nested Pseudo Likelihood algorithm, but handles arbitrary distributions of the idiosyncratic shocks and nonlinear payoff functions."
"Zeuthen Workshop 2021";"";"2021-09-07";"09:00";"2021-09-08";"16:00";"CSS 26.2.21/CSS 26.3.21";"Arranged by Niels Johannesen og Claus Thustrup Kreiner.";" Read more about Zeuthen Workshop "
"Esther Chevrot-Bianco forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2021-09-10";"15:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS 26.2.21";"Esther Chevrot-Bianco forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Empirical Essays in Institutional and Organizational Economics"".";"Esther Chevrot-Bianco forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Empirical Essays in Institutional and Organizational Economics"" Kandidat Esther Chevrot-Bianco Titel: ""Empirical Essays in Institutional and Organizational Economics"". Tid og sted: 10. september 2021 kl. 15:00 i lokale CSS 26.2.21/ZOOM.Link til at logge på overværelse af forsvaret pr. Zoom følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Nikolaj Arpe Harmon, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Tore Ellington, Stockholm School of Economics Professor Rafaelle Sadun, Harvard Business School Abstract: This Ph.D. dissertation consists of three chapters that constitute independent research articles. Each chapter of the thesis focuses on the interplay between economic outcomes and different social phenomena, namely social networks (chapter 1) and social preferences (chapters 2 and 3). The first chapter highlights the role of social networks for board opportunities in the corporate sector. I find that the main beneficiaries of a board gender quota implemented in Denmark are women with existing family and spousal networks connected to firms' boards. The second chapter examines the role of social preferences in leadership. It shows that CEOs whose leadership style is grounded in strong personal values are more stakeholder-oriented and have a positive effect on firm performance. The third chapter contributes to the debate on the relationship between market participation and moral universalism: the extent to which people exhibit the same level of morality towards strangers and ingroup members. Using a field experiment in Greenland, it adds evidence that market participation correlates positively with moral universalism. The first chapter highlights the role of family and spousal networks for women's access to the boardroom. It asks how board gender quotas interact with network-based hiring practices and which women benefit from quotas. Using matched firm-directors datasets covering the population of Danish firms and blood- and marriage-based ties as relevant social connections, I show that the introduction of a board gender quota in Denmark in 2012 intensifies network-based hiring, resulting in differential benefits of the law for potential candidates depending on their family connections. First, the quota leads firms to double the share of connected directors among female appointments. Second, potential candidates with family connections to incumbent directors and CEOs become three times more likely to be appointed, whereas the probability to be appointed remains the same for highly qualified but unconnected potential candidates. Taken together, the evidence suggests that sticky norms of hiring based on networks create search frictions in the recruitment of female directors, even in the presence of board gender quotas. The second chapter (co-authored with Morten Bennedsen) examines the role of values in leadership. The strength of personal values and how these penetrate firm organization is measured through a survey of 1500 Danish CEOs. We construct a measure of value-based leadership and investigate the impact on firm outcomes and firm policies. First, we find that value-based leadership is more common in family firms and with female leadership, but not correlated to leaders' IQ nor to management practices. Second, value-based leadership is positively correlated to firm performance. We provide causal evidence through the analysis of CEO changes and CEO hospitalizations. Third, value-based leaders build more resilient organizations in a pandemic crisis and generate less conflicts, lower employee turnover and have a flatter organizational structure in normal times. Taken together, leaders' personal values and how they spread through organizations are important factors in explaining the value they bring to their firms. The third chapter (co-authored with Gustav Agneman) contributes to the debate on the relationship between market participation and moral universalism. We study parochial honesty, the tendency to behave more honestly toward members of the ingroup than toward strangers. To this end, we conduct honesty experiments (N=543) in 13 villages across Greenland, where small and geographically isolated communities provide for a natural definition of the ingroup. In order to study group differentiation, we introduce a negative externality in the experiment and randomly vary the identity of the interaction partner. The results reveal significant parochial honesty. Participants inflate payoffs by 11% on average when matched with an outsider, but refrain from misreporting when it negatively affects members of their local community. Furthermore, we find that only participants in the traditional economy exhibit strong parochial honesty; market integrated participants behave equally honest regardless of interaction partner."
"Tim Landvoigt, University of Pennsylvania";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-09-14";"";"";"";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?"" Abstract Governments around the world have gone on a massive fiscal expansion in response to the Covid crisis, increasing government debt to levels not seen in 75 years. How will this debt be repaid? What role do conventional and unconventional monetary policy play? We investigate debt sustainability in a New Keynesian model with an intermediary sector, realistic fiscal and monetary policy, endogenous convenience yields, and substantial risk premia. When conventional monetary policy is constrained by the ZLB during an economic crisis, increased government spending and lower tax revenue lead to a large rise in government debt and raise the risk of future tax increases. We find that quantitative easing (QE), forward guidance, and an expansion in government discretionary spending all contribute to lowering debt/GDP ratio and reducing this fiscal risk. A transitory QE policy deployed during a crisis stimulates aggregate demand. Contact person: Patrick Moran"
"SODAS Lecture: The Philosophy of the Predicted Human";"SODAS";"2021-09-17";"11:00";"2021-09-17";"12:30";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140";"""The Philosophy of the Predicted Human: The Implications of Machine Prediction for the Theory of Action, and Vice-Versa"" by Prof. John Levi Martin";"SODAS lecture ""The Philosophy of the Predicted Human: The Implications of Machine Prediction for the Theory of Action, and Vice-Versa"" We are delighted to host Prof. John Levi Martin for the first lecture this Fall, please join us for this event. AbstractBefore the parallelization revolution that spelled the death of “AI 1.0,” the Newell-Simon attempt to mimic human decision making via serial algorithms, it was inevitable that theories used to guide the development of computer software would leak back into our theories of human being. Given that the dominant family of theories of human action was entrenched in the first-approximation model of economic decision making, bound up with the core ideological self-understanding of capitalist societies (“choice”), this was an easy slippage to make. However, the rise of deep-learning algorithms is forcing researchers to grapple with the limits of what Haugeland called “Good Old Fashioned AI” (GOFAI), and to develop new understandings of how future machines will operate, ones that treat the machines less like formal flow-charts and more like organic brains. Sadly, our theory of human cognition has not budged, and we still attempt to apply to ourselves theories that we recognize are not even appropriate for current computer technology. I consider how the puzzles generated by predictive engines have the potential to radically change our understanding of human action, and the criteria by which we judge a potential explanation. Indeed, I will propose that the predictive success of future AI will force us to recognize the limited significance of prediction (as it is currently understood) in the assessment of theories. AboutJohn Levi Martin received a Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of California at Berkeley, where he was recently a professor, after being a professor at the University of Wisconsin at Madison and an assistant professor at Rutgers—The State University of New Jersey at New Brunswick. He is now a professor at the University of Chicago at Chicago. He has researched the formal properties of belief systems and social structures, and has written books on how to think through theory, methods, and statistics. This fall, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Philosophy of the Predicted Human"". The Predicted HumanBeing human in 2021 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. Predicting and manipulating the future behavior of human beings is nothing new. Most of the quantitative social sciences focus on this topic in a general sense. There are entire subfields of statistics dedicated to understanding what can be predicted and what cannot. Yet the current situation is different. Computers’ ability to analyze text and images has been revolutionized by the availability of vast datasets and new machine learning techniques. We are currently experiencing a similar shift in terms of how algorithms can predict (and manipulate) human behavior. Human beings can be algorithmically shaped, we can be hacked. The ambition with this semester’s SODAS Lectures is to present and discuss different perspectives on human prediction. Inviting a list of distinguished scholars and speakers whose expertise ranges from traditional social sciences, over machine learning and data science to philosophy and STS, we hope to delve into some of the principles and dynamics which govern our ability to predict and control both individual and collective human behaviors. "
"Matthew Rognlie, Northwestern University	";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-09-17";"13:45";"2021-09-17";"14:45";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel"" Abstract Introducing heterogeneous households to a New Keynesian small open economy model amplifies the real income channel of exchange rates: the rise in import prices from a depreciation lowers households’ real incomes, and leads them to cut back on spending. When the sum of import and export elasticities is one, this channel is offset by a larger Keynesian multiplier, heterogeneity is irrelevant, and expenditure switching drives the output response. With plausibly lower short-term elasticities, however, the real income channel dominates, and depreciation can be contractionary for output. This weakens monetary transmission and creates a dilemma for policymakers facing capital outflows. Delayed import price pass-through weakens the real income channel, while heterogeneous consumption baskets can strengthen it. (Joint with Adrien Auclert, Matthew Rognlie, Martin Souchier and Ludwig Straub) Contact person: Jeppe Druedal"
"Petra Gram Cavalca forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2021-09-20";"15:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS 26.2.21";"Petra Gram Cavalca forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays in Economics of Child Protection"".";"Petra Gram Cavalca forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays in Economics of Child Protection"" For at overvære forsvaret se dette link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Meltem Daysal, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Dan Anderberg, Royal Holloway University, UK Professor Anna Aiser, Brown University, US Abstract In this thesis, I study various aspects of child protection from an economic perspective. The thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. Each chapter casts light on a different aspect of how we, as a society, manage the responsibility of helping children who do not thrive in their own home, and to what extent we succeed in helping these children find their way in life. In chapter 1 (co-authored with Mette Ejrnæs and Mette Gørtz), we investigate how children's health, education, and crime changes in the time leading up to, and immediately following a placement in out-of-home care. Using detailed administrative register data, supplemented by unique survey data from a large Danish municipality, we investigate the development of the children's well-being in the time around their first out-of-home care experience. In chapter 2, I investigate a specific part of the child protection system; foster family care. Unfortunately, many child protection systems have a hard time recruiting enough foster families. At the same time, there is a wish to place a larger fraction of children in foster families rather than institutional care, which increases the demand for qualified foster parents. An important question is how to ensure a sufficient supply of qualified foster families in the future? In chapter 3 (co-authored with Mette Ejrnæs and Mette Gørtz), we study the role of budgetary constraints on child protection decisions. More specifically, we investigate whether municipalities that have spent a larger share of their budget, place fewer children in out-of-home care in comparison to municipalities that did not spend as large a share of their yearly budget. We also analyze the effect of a budget reform, which introduced economic sanctions for municipalities overrunning their budgets."
"Robert Schmidt, University of Hagen";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2021-09-24";"13:00";"2021-09-24";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Climate Coalition Formation In Continuous Time"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Climate Coalition Formation In Continuous Time"" Abstract We introduce a novel climate coalition formation game in continuous time. The model makes the negotiation process during which countries join the coalition explicit. This yields a more realistic description of actual negotiations than previous models, and helps to resolve the so-called ""Paradox of International Agreements'' (Kolstad and Toman 2005), according to which climate cooperation cannot deliver substantial welfare gains when countries' participation decisions are voluntary. We argue that this paradox builds on an overly restrictive static framework where all participation decisions have to be taken simultaneously. In our model, countries are free to decide whether and when to join the coalition. This allows for the formation of large coalitions, including the grand coalition, in equilibrium. Using mixed strategies, our model also offers an explanation for delays in climate negotiations, as well as for their possible failure on the equilibrium path. Contact person: Frikk Nesje"
"David Wiczer, Stony Brook";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-09-24";"13:15";"2021-09-24";"14:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Cyclical Earnings and Employment Transitions"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Cyclical Earnings and Employment Transitions"" Abstract Recessions increase unemployment risk and decrease flows across employers and occupations. This paper explores the cyclical differences in the earnings change distribution---focusing on the more volatile tails. Because earnings changes are larger when workers change jobs and even larger when switching occupations, cyclicality in the incidence of flows directly affects the tails of the distribution of earnings changes. However, the business cycle also affects earnings outcomes conditional on a job, employment status and/or occupation change. Because job and occupation switching is endogenous, we introduce a business cycle model with on-the-job search and occupational mobility, which allows us to structurally decompose the contribution of flows and returns. Cyclical fluctuations in exogenous flows, along with worsening returns, drive dynamics in the bottom tail of earnings growth while returns affect changes in the top tail. Joint with Carlos Carrillo Tudela and Ludo Visschers Contact person: Daphné Jocelyne Skandalis"
"Econ Student Workshop Project Dignity ";"";"2021-09-28";"15:00";"2021-09-28";"18:00";"Room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen";"";"The Faculty of Social Sciences has initiated a cultural development program (Project Dignity), to ensure that we provide the best possible work and study environment. This means, for example, an environment free from sexual harassment.This program will be implemented across all five of our departments and the Faculty Administration throughout 2021. The workshop 28 September 2021 will give an introduction to Project Dignity. At the workshop participants will have the possibility to reflect and discuss the themes/issues that they find as the most relevant. The workshop will be a combination of group work and dialogue in order to create the possible solutions going forward. Workshops are facilitated by external consultants Kåre Bach Kristiansen and Tine Lund Bretlau from the company White Cloud. They give you an unique possibility to influence your study environment by discussing norms under transition and share ideas on actions to be taken to ensure an academic environment that is unbiased and inclusive. Only consultants and students are present at the workshop. Coffee, tea, water, fruit and cake will be served."
"Alina Bartscher, Danmarks Nationalbank";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-10-01";"13:15";"2021-10-01";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-20/21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Household Debt and Inequality in the United States, 1950-2019"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Household Debt and Inequality in the United States, 1950-2019"" Abstract This paper studies the secular increase in U.S. household debt over the past seven decades. We exploit a novel household-level dataset covering the joint distribution of debt, income and wealth. The data show that rising housing debt of middle-class families has played a central role in the debt increase. We further find that income and debt growth comoved closely until the late 1970s, but have diverged strongly thereafter. Since the 1950s, the vast majority of U.S. household debt has always been housing debt. In the postwar era, housing debt mainly increased because more households took on debt. Yet since the 1980s, it has mainly increased because households took on larger amounts of debt. We show that home-equity-based borrowing can account for about half of the housing debt increase over the boom period ending with the 2008 crisis. This has led to pronounced changes in life-cycle debt-to-income profiles, with higher levels of debt at older ages. Yet since asset values grew as well, life-cycle wealth-to-income ratios have remained similar across cohorts. Our data also show that black households, with their lower homeownership rates and housing assets, have only played a very limited role in the extraction boom and overall debt growth since the 1950s. Contact person: Patrick Moran"
"SODAS Data Discussion 8 October 2021";"SODAS";"2021-10-08";"11:00";"2021-10-08";"12:00";"SODAS conference room 1.02.26";"With Clara Rosa Sandbye, Emilie Munch Gregersen, Sofie Læbo Astrupgaard og Thyge Ryom Enggaard.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Authors:Emilie Munch Gregersen & Sofie Læbo Astrupgaard, SODAS Title:Watching people meeting: Systematizing qualitative approaches to data intensive fieldwork at the Danish Peoples Meeting Abstract:Can we explicate, quantify, and systemize ethnographic data collection across researchers when conducting data intensive fieldwork? And how does a complementary collection of digital and biometric data lead to a deeper understanding of our field? We reflect upon these convoluted questions after having experimented with different data collection methods to study dynamics of attention and ‘eventness’ during The Danish People’s Meeting 2021. In anthropological research, traditional approaches to collecting data most often entail a dynamic process for the ethnographer to switch between or simultaneously apply different methods such as participant observation, interviews and writing field notes. In this presentation, we elaborate on our experience with collecting various types of data in a more formalized and machinic manner. In our approach to capture attention flows at the People’s Meeting, we used structured observational guides for quantifying qualitative observations as well as participant observation and interviews. All of which were written down and reflected upon in a self-developed platform for writing fieldnotes in-situ on our phones. The data output and experiences leave us wondering what is lost and gained when such different data sources and approaches are combined, and when ethnographers are constrained to a common format of data collection. Author:Thyge Ryom Enggaard Title:Embedded Understanding - Eliciting and Interpreting Differences & Similarities in Word Use Abstract:Is it possible to formalize and computationally identify the extent to which words are understood more of less differently between two texts? If so, can computational methods also enable us to interpret this difference (or similarity)? While we might (or might not) agree completely about what words refer to (say capitalism or vaccine), we might nonetheless still disagree about what that is. I attempt to measure such differences based on differences in how words co-occur between the two corpora, by training separate word embeddings, aligning them in a shared vector space and measuring the geometric distance between each word type. Current results show an undesirable negative correlation between word frequency and aligned distance – the more often a word occur, the lower is the aligned distance. While controlling for frequency might provide useful residuals, I hypothesize this correlation to be a result of non-isotropic embeddings (non-uniform distribution in direction). "
"Anna Stansbury, MIT";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-10-08";"14:15";"2021-10-08";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Employer Concentration and Outside Options"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Employer Concentration and Outside Options"" Abstract We study the effect of within-occupation employer concentration and outside-occupation job options on wages in the US, identifying outside-occupation options using new occupational mobility data from 16 million resumes. Using shift-share instruments to identify plausibly exogenous local variation, we find that moving from the median to 95th percentile of employer concentration reduces wages by 2% on average and by 5% for workers in the lowest quartile of outward occupational mobility. We also find meaningful effects of changes in the value of outside-occupation job options on wages. Our findings imply that policymakers should take employer concentration seriously, but that measures of employer concentration – typically calculated for single occupations – should be considered alongside occupational mobility and the availability of outside-occupation options. (by Gregor Schubert, Anna Stansbury, Bledi Taska) Contact person: Daphné Jocelyne Skandalis"
"Andrea Weber, CEU ";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2021-10-11";"13:15";"2021-10-11";"14:15";"TBA";"CoLab seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Internal Labor Markets: A Worker Flow Approach"" Abstract This paper develops a new method to study how workers' career and wage profiles are shaped by internal labor markets (ILM) and job hierarchies in firms. Our paper tackles the conceptual challenge of organizing jobs within firms into hierarchy levels by proposing a data-driven ranking method based on observed worker flows between occupations /within/ firms. We apply our method to linked employer-employee data from Norway that records fine-grained occupational codes and tracks contract changes within firms. Our findings confirm existing evidence that is primarily based on case studies for single firms. We expand on this by documenting substantial heterogeneity in the structure and hierarchy of ILMs across a broad range of large firms. Our findings on wage and promotion dynamics in ILMs are consistent with models of careers in organizations. Joint with Ingrid Huitfeldt, Andreas Kostol, Jan Nimczik Contact person Nikolaj Arpe Harmon"
"Paolo Gorgi, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam";"FRU (Finance Research Unit)";"2021-10-11";"15:30";"2021-10-11";"16:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Conditional score residuals and diagnostic analysis of serial dependence in time series models"". Seminar arranged by Finance Research Unit (FRU)";"""Conditional score residuals and diagnostic analysis of serial dependence in time series models"" Abstract We introduce a general framework for diagnostic analysis of time series models that relies on the definition of conditional score residuals. Conditional score residuals encompass standard definitions of residuals that are typically used in time series models. ARMA residuals, squared residuals and Pearson residuals are special cases of conditional score residuals when the conditional distribution of the model belongs to the exponential family. Instead, conditional score residuals provide an alternative definition of residuals when the conditional distribution is not of the exponential type. The asymptotic properties of empirical autocorrelation functions of conditional score residuals are formally derived for a wide class of time series models. The results yield a unified theory for diagnostic analysis of observation-driven time series models. A key feature of conditional score residuals is that they account for the shape of the conditional distribution. This produces more reliable and powerful diagnostic tools for testing residual autocorrelation. Furthermore, they can also be employed in complex models where it may not be clear how to define residuals. We illustrate the practical relevance of the proposed framework by considering two examples that feature a heavy-tailed GARCH model and a dynamic copula model. A simulation study and an empirical application to the returns of the S&P500 index show how squared residuals are not reliable in testing residual autocorrelation in GARCH models with extreme observations. Instead, conditional score residuals are robust to outliers and they provide more powerful diagnostic tools. Co-authors: F. Blasques and S.J. Koopman Contact person: Stefan Voigt"
"UDDanKvant præsentation og reception";"UDDanKvant";"2021-10-12";"14:00";"2021-10-12";"";"CSS 15.3.01 og 35.3.20, Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet";"";"I forbindelse med etableringen af den nye enhed UDDanKvant afholdes en præsentation og reception tirsdag d. 12. oktober 2021 kl. 14-16. Tilmelding Tilmeldingsformularen er lukket, men nåede du ikke at tilmelde dig, er du velkommen til at skrive på jmh@econ.ku.dk Ønsker du at melde afbud, bedes du kontakte Joanna Hagstrøm på jmh@econ.ku.dk Program Kl. 14:00 Præsentation i CSS 15.3.01 Velkomst v. Mikkel Vedby, Dekan, SAMF, KU Velkomst v. Lars Videbæk, kontorchef, BUVM Præsentationen af UDDanKvant og kernemedlemmer, forskningsleder Mette Ejrnæs, Økonomisk Institut, KU Præsentation af forskningsprojekt om allokering af elever, Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen, kernemedlem af forskningsenheden UDDanKvant, Økonomisk Institut, KU Kl. 15:00 Reception i CSS 35.3.20 (Faculty Lounge) "
"SODAS Lecture with Serge Belongie";"SODAS";"2021-10-15";"11:00";"2021-10-15";"12:30";"CSS, room 35.0.12 ";"“The Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence” by Professor Serge Belongie.";"""The Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence"" We are delighted to host Prof. Serge Belongie for this semester’s second SODAS lecture. Abstract The purpose of the lecture is to introduce the new Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence, which is hosted at the Department of Computer Science, University of Copenhagen, and will be located just across from SODAS in the old UCPH Observatory (currently under renovation). Funded by a DKK 352,4 million (€47 million) grant from the combined foundations: Novo Nordisk, Denmark’s National Research Foundation, Villum, Lundbeck and Carlsberg, the Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence aims to stand at the international forefront and develop platforms, methods, and practices for a human centric AI. Groundbreaking fundamental AI research will be pursued within an interdisciplinary framework. Inspired by the motto Nothing About Us, Without Us (NAUWU), the center is based on the idea that no policy should be decided by any representative without the full and direct participation of members of the group(s). The center is organized into seven collaboratories structured around an AI research theme with 2-3 PIs as well as PhD students and postdocs attached. Researchers from the University of Copenhagen, Denmark’s Technical University, IT University, Aalborg University, and Aarhus University co-lead these efforts, along with Director, Professor Serge Belongie. Speaker bio Serge Belongie is a professor of Computer Science at the University of Copenhagen, where he also serves as the head of the Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence. Previously, he was a professor of Computer Science at Cornell University, an Associate Dean at Cornell Tech, and a member of the Visiting Faculty program at Google.His research interests include Computer Vision, Machine Learning, Augmented Reality, and Human-in-the-Loop Computing. He is also a co-founder of several companies including Digital Persona, Anchovi Labs, and Orpix. He is a recipient of the NSF CAREER Award, the Alfred P. Sloan Research Fellowship, the MIT Technology Review “Innovators Under 35” Award, and the Helmholtz Prize for fundamental contributions in Computer Vision. This fall, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Philosophy of the Predicted Human"". The Predicted Human Being human in 2021 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. Predicting and manipulating the future behavior of human beings is nothing new. Most of the quantitative social sciences focus on this topic in a general sense. There are entire subfields of statistics dedicated to understanding what can be predicted and what cannot. Yet the current situation is different. Computers’ ability to analyze text and images has been revolutionized by the availability of vast datasets and new machine learning techniques. We are currently experiencing a similar shift in terms of how algorithms can predict (and manipulate) human behavior. Human beings can be algorithmically shaped, we can be hacked. The ambition with this semester’s SODAS Lectures is to present and discuss different perspectives on human prediction. Inviting a list of distinguished scholars and speakers whose expertise ranges from traditional social sciences, over machine learning and data science to philosophy and STS, we hope to delve into some of the principles and dynamics which govern our ability to predict and control both individual and collective human behaviors."
"Econ Student Workshop Project Dignity ll";"White Cloud & Faculty of Social Sciences";"2021-10-26";"17:30";"2021-10-26";"20:00";"CSS 26.2.21";"";"Let’s s shape the future study environment together Have you as a student at the Economics programme experienced any kind of unwanted behaviour? At seminars? Parties? Friday bars? Following the ongoing debate regarding lack of inclusion, discrimination, unacceptable behaviour, and sexual harassment, the Faculty of Social Sciences has initiated Project Dignity aiming at defining the framework for what is considered decent behaviour and a constructive and professional study and work environment. It is now time for the second workshop for the students of Economics. It is not a prerequisite that you were a part of workshop 1. Everyone is welcome. There will be served coffee, tea, cake, fruit and pizzas. Remember to sign up, so we know how much to order. Programme The workshop will start with an introduction to the project and a summary of the work so far. The work sessions will then be divided into two sections with a focus on the following three themes: 1) The tutor programme as well as the general introduction to the Economics programme.2) Social events at the Economics programme (parties, Friday bar etc.)3) Study life/environment – what culture/behaviour do we want at the Economics programme? Section one will focus on creating a shared and common understanding of the problem at hand by exploring the challenges and critical issues. Section two will focus on potential future initiatives that can create the desired change and create an inclusive and respectful culture. Participants will have the opportunity to propose initiatives and ideas that will ensure that no one will feel harassed, discriminated or excluded at the Department of Economics. Sign up Sign up for the workshop here The workshop will be conducted by the consulting firm White Cloud. Everyone is deeply encouraged to take the time to engage in the project, as the outcome will influence the study environment ahead."
"Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg  forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2021-10-28";"16:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS 26.2.21";"Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Financial Problems, Fairness Views and Crime: Evidence from New Combinations of Administrative Records and Online Surveys and Experiments""";"Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Financial Problems, Fairness Views and Crime: Evidence from New Combinations of Administrative Records and Online Surveys and Experiments"" For at overvære forsvaret pr zoom se venligst dette link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672Pass code: 1234 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Asger Lau Andersen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Roine Vestman, Stockholm Universitet Professor Randi Hjamarssen, Økonomisk Institut, Göteborg Universitet Abstract This PhD dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters. All three chapters leverage new combinations of administrative records and data from online surveys and experiments. Chapter 1 documents how extensive economic education can reduce the risk of getting into financial problems by comparing people who enter business and economics programs with people who enter other higher education programs. To identify the causal effect, I exploit GPA admission thresholds that quasi-randomize applicants near the thresholds into different programs. I find that admission to an economics education significantly reduces the probability of loan default by one-half. This large reduction in the default probability is associated with changes in financial behavior, but it is not associated with differences in the level or stability of people's income. Chapter 2 is co-authored with Claus Thustrup Kreiner and Stefanie Stantcheva. In this chapter, we link survey data containing Danish people’s perceptions of where they rank in various reference groups and fairness views with administrative records on their income history, life events, and reference groups. People know their income positions well, but believe others are closer to themselves than they really are. The perceived fairness of inequalities is strongly related to current social position, moves with shocks to social position (e.g., unemployment or promotions), and changes when people are experimentally shown their actual positions. People view inequalities within education group and co-workers as most unfair, but underestimate inequality the most exactly within these reference groups. Chapter 3 is co-authored with Thomas Epper, Ernst Fehr, Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Søren Leth-Petersen and Gregers Nytoft Rasmussen. In this chapter, we revisit a key topic in Social Science, namely who commits crime and why which is important for the design of crime prevention policy. In theory, people who commit crime face different social and economic incentives for criminal activity than other people or they evaluate the costs and benefits of crime differently because they have different preferences. Empirical evidence on the role of preferences is scarce. Theoretically, risk tolerant, impatient and self-interested people are more prone to commit crime than risk averse, patient and altruistic people. We test these predictions with a unique combination of data where we use state-of-the art methods in experimental economics to elicit the preferences of young men and link this experimental data to their criminal records. In addition, our data allow us to control extensively for other characteristics such as cognitive skills, socio-economic background and self-control problems. We find that preferences are strongly associated with actual criminal behavior. Impatience and, in particular, risk tolerance are still strong predictors when we include the full battery of controls. Crime propensities are 8-10 percentage points higher for the most risk tolerant individuals compared to the most risk averse. This effect is half the size of the effect of cognitive skills, which is one of the best predictors of criminal behavior. Looking into different types of crime, we find that preferences predict property offences, while self-control problems predict violent, drug and sexual offences."
"DISTRACT seminar with Signe Sophus Lai";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2021-10-29";"11:00";"2021-10-29";"12:00";"CSS, SODAS, 1.2.26";"Networks of Power: Analysing the political economy of digital infrastructures";"Networks of Power: Analysing the political economy of digital infrastructures The talk hovers around the structural consequences of the gradual shift to internet-based communication. It discusses how the conditions and characteristics associated with the Nordic Media Welfare state (Syvertsen et al., 2014) have come under pressure and ultimately been transformed as a result of legacy institutions losing control over the more mature digital infrastructure: Global, commercial players increasingly dominate all parts of the digital media and communication sector; digital communication services are subject to significantly less control than legacy media as government agencies have not yet managed to adjust and develop the regulatory frameworks; and so, welfare values and logics have been weakened as a more commercial regime has emerged. Based on a conceptual framework for mapping and analysing digital communication systems (Flensburg & Lai 2019; 2020a), the talk focuses specifically on a study of the evolution of the internet infrastructure in Denmark, which assesses emerging digital power structures and regulatory dynamics (Flensburg & Lai, 2020b). We revisit and develop Thomas P. Hughes’ momentum theory (1994) and contend that the internet, as other large technological systems (i.e. the electrical grid), has evolved in different phases reflecting a shift from being mainly influenced by socio-economic conditions to having a determining influence on the development of societal structures. We argue that contemporary internet infrastructure studies can benefit from Hughes’ theoretical approach, but also need to strengthen their methodological and empirical strategy. The study contributes to this by approaching the changes in digital infrastructures, markets, and state policies in Denmark from 1992 to 2019. Building on database material, we analyse the development of digital devices and broadband connections, fibre-optic submarine cables and internet exchange points (IXPs), web domains, and digital data. The analysis, and the conceptual framework, challenge and extend the institutional approach to systemic media analysis represented by e.g., Hallin & Mancini (2004) by emphasizing the material and infrastructural aspects of mediated communication as important analytical dimensions. Taken together, the talk presents an alternative interpretation of how the internet has influenced the welfare regime that governed mediated communication in the past. It also serves as a point of departure for current and future comparative undertakings, where we explore the impact of the welfare model on how digital communication systems are developing across the different welfare regimes of the Nordic countries Signe Sophus Lai is Assistant Professor at the Department of Communication, University of Copenhagen. "
"Joachim Hubmer, University of Pennsylvania";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-10-29";"13:15";"2021-10-29";"14:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Not a Typical Firm: The Joint Dynamics of Firms, Labor Shares, and Capital-Labor Substitution"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Not a Typical Firm: The Joint Dynamics of Firms, Labor Shares, and Capital-Labor Substitution"" Abstract The decline in the U.S. labor share is not uniform across firms. While the aggregate labor share has declined, especially in manufacturing, retail, and wholesale, the labor share of a typical firm in these industries has risen. This paper studies the dynamics of the substitution of capital for labor at the firm level and its implications for market structure and labor shares. We introduce a model where firms make costly upfront investments to adopt the capital-intensive technologies required to automate tasks. Following a decline in the price of capital, large firms automate more tasks and become more capital-intensive, while the median firm continues to operate a labor-intensive technology. In line with firm-level data, our model generates transitions in which the labor share of the median firm increases at the same time as the aggregate labor share declines. We use an extension of our model that allows for endogenous markups to study the role of rising competition and reallocation towards more productive and higher-markup firms as another driver of the decline in the labor share during 1982--2012. Using an indirect inference approach, we find that reallocation played a minor role in explaining the decline in the labor share in U.S. manufacturing but an important role in retail and other sectors. The substitution of labor with cheaper capital in a widening range of tasks played a more dominant role in explaining the decline of the manufacturing labor share. This conclusion is in line with direct estimates of markups and output elasticities for firms in Compustat. Contact person: Katja Mann"
"Kristoffer Lind Glavind forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2021-11-02";"14:45";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS 1.1.18";"Kristoffer Lind Glavind forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Smartphones’ effects on attention and behavior""";"Kristoffer Lind Glavind forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Smartphones’ effects on attention and behavior"" For at overvære forsvaret over zoom kan du bruge dette link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672Pass code: 1234 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Mogens Fosgerau, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Associate Professor Michael Szell, ITU Professor dr. JN van Ommeren, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Abstract In this Ph.D. dissertation, I analyze how smartphones affect human life through three separate chapters. Examining different domains of human life, the chapters have several things in common. First, they all relate to how smartphones affect human attention. Second, they all use data collected from smartphones to examine the influence of smartphones. Third, in all three chapters, analyzes are made based on advanced data structuring and the use of econometric models seeking to establish causal claims when possible. Smartphone use is socially contagious In the first chapter, we show a sharp increase in smartphone use when traveling between EU countries after June 15th, 2017, when the Roam-Like-at-Home initiative removed tariffs. We see this as causal evidence that the Roam-Like-at-Home initiative increased smartphone use, with an average daily increase in screentime of 6%. This increase was primarily driven by social media apps, browser and search apps, and map apps. Further, we investigate the effect on mobility patterns and find that while travellers due to free roaming visit 6% more locations a day, they spend 5% less time on transportation like cars and trains. This suggests that mobile internet access help travellers visit more places and travel more efficiently. Nature unplugged or interrupted? In the second chapter, we contribute to an extensive literature on how natural areas affect human well-being. We examine both the effect of natural areas overall (both recreational and nature areas) and recreational and nature areas separately. We use data from the Copenhagen Network Study to follow 701 young adults' phone use for two years and fixed effects models to account for individual-specific and time-specific effects. We show that exposure to natural areas in general (including both nature areas and recreational areas) only slightly affects smartphone use relative to being in urban areas. However, we find that these effects differ substantially over the type of natural areas. While being in nature (e.g., forests or nature reserves) reduces smartphone screentime, texting, and calling by 4%, 6%, and 7%, respectively, being in recreational areas (e.g., parks or recreational grounds) does not affect smartphone screentime, but increases texting and calling by 11% and 17% respectively. Further, we show that the effect of being in a specific environment changes depending on how long time you have been in the specific environment and that nature reduces smartphone use more when users are staying still in nature, compared to moving through nature. Finally, we find that the users who spent the most time in nature also lowers their phone use the most when being in nature. In contrast, infrequent nature visitors increase their screentime when being in nature. Smartphone use is socially contagious In the third chapter, we show that smartphone use spread between individuals that are near each other. The spread of smartphone use only occurs between individuals who have a social relation. We, therefore, conclude that smartphone use spreads through social mechanisms. We show this by using data from a large-scale field study running for more than two years, which has the unique feature that it includes detailed information about nearby individuals. To causally identify the effect of one individual's screentime on nearby individuals, we use the arrival of text messages (SMS) as quasi-random natural experiments and track phone use for all co-present individuals before and after the arrival of the text message. Showing that smartphone use is contagious has the potential to change the way we think about smartphone use. Because it is contagious, individuals' smartphone use goes from exclusively affecting the individual to also affecting nearby peers. Since there are indications that additional smartphone use is harmful to the individual, smartphone use arguably exhibits a negative externality, which would be an argument for regulation. This can be compared to second-hand smoking, where evidence of adverse effects on co-present individuals has led to heavy regulation."
"Gizem Kosar, NY Fed	";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-11-05";"13:15";"2021-11-05";"14:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""The Work-Leisure Tradeoff: Identifying the Heterogeneity"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""The Work-Leisure Tradeoff: Identifying the Heterogeneity "" Abstract In this paper, we identify individuals’ tradeoff for work and leisure as well as the underlying preference heterogeneity by designing a novel survey that was fielded as a special module of the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations in December 2017. We present respondents with individually-tailored hypothetical scenarios, in which they are asked to choose between two job offers or the option of remaining unemployed. Job offers are characterized by hourly wages and hours. We validate the survey responses using several approaches. We next use this rich variation to estimate a canonical labor supply model to recover the unique preference parameters separately for different demographic groups, without imposing any parametric assumption on the underlying distribution of the heterogeneity in preferences. We estimate our model using Method of Simulated Moments and use the estimated model to simulate Marshallian and Frisch elasticities at the group level. The implied elasticities vary systematically across demographic groups. Our results also imply substantial heterogeneity in elasticities within each of the demographic groups. Moreover, we find that accounting for the heterogeneity in preferences often widens the across-group differences. In order to highlight the importance of this heterogeneity, we assess the impact of policy changes in the tax policy using the distribution of elasticities and compare the results with the response in hours computed using a single aggregate elasticity (as is done in the literature). Our results show that both the average hours response and the distributional impact to a change in the marginal tax rate are substantially biased if the underlying heterogeneity in preferences is not taken into account. This underscores the need for taking this heterogeneity seriously, and the power of our approach for uncovering it. (with Aysegul Sahin and Basit Zafar) Contact person: Patrick Moran"
"Sebastian Fanelli, CEMFI";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-11-12";"13:15";"2021-11-12";"14:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Firm Export Dynamics in Interdependent Markets"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Firm Export Dynamics in Interdependent Markets"" Abstract Firms exhibit persistence in their export destinations and these destinations tend to be similar to their home market or to other export destinations of the firm. To account for these patterns in firms’ export decisions, we develop a dynamic model featuring country-specific fixed and sunk export costs, and allow the fixed costs that a firm pays to export to a country in a period to depend on which other countries the firm exports to in the same period. Sunk costs and complementarities across countries in fixed export costs jointly imply that a firm’s export decision in a country and period will impact its export decisions in any other country in any future period. Each firm in our model thus decides in every period the bundle of countries it exports to by solving a forward-looking dynamic combinatorial discrete choice model. Using a novel solution algorithm and detailed data for the period 2005-2015 on the export choices of the universe of manufacturing firms located in Costa Rica, we study the importance that cross-country complementarities play in determining firms’ export decisions. Co-authors: Alonso Alfaro-Ureña (Banco Central de Costa Rica), Juan Manuel Castro Vincenzi (Princeton), Eduardo Morales (Princeton) Contact person: Martín Gonzalez Eiras "
"Workshop on Financial Transaction Taxes";"Department of Economics";"2021-11-17";"12:00";"2021-11-18";"13:00";"Room 26.2.21 and 35.03.12, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, ";"";"In recent years, some European countries have implemented a small tax on trades in stock markets, and more countries may follow suit. This workshop features ongoing research on topics connected to such a tax on financial transactions. Combining insights from economics and finance, some presentations draw on the economics of taxation, while other presentations relate to financial market microstructure, with its focus on market frictions and design. Further relevant contributions can be included in the workshop. Joint keynote speakers are Bruno Biais of HEC Paris and Jean-Charles Rochet of the University of Zurich. The workshop organizer is Peter Norman Sørensen of the University of Copenhagen. The workshop takes place physically at the premises of the University of Copenhagen, with no opportunity for virtual participation. Programme Download programme Location The workshop takes place at Department of Economics in Building 26 and Building 35 at University of Copenhagen at Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen. All sessions November 17th takes place in Building 26. Building 26 is closest to the campus entrance at Gammeltoftsgade 17, 1353 Copenhagen. All sessions November 18th takes place in Building 35. Building 35 is closest to the campus entrance at Gammeltoftsgade 15, 1353 Copenhagen. "
"Økonomisk Eksploratorium #19 om Strukturel Mikroøkonometri";"Økonomisk Institut";"2021-11-18";"16:00";"2021-11-18";"18:00";"Lokale CSS 26.3.21 på Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Københavns Universitet";"";"Synes du nogle gange, at der er langt fra de teoretiske modeller til virkelighedens verden? Og har du også undret dig over, hvordan din viden om nyttefunktioner og ligevægtsmodeller fra mikroøkonomi kan anvendes på data i en økonometrisk model? Og hvordan forudser man konsekvenserne af en reform, som er uden historisk fortilfælde? Svaret er strukturel mikroøkonometri, som vi dykker ned i ved næste Økonomiske Eksploratorium torsdag den 18. november kl. 16-18 på 3. sal i Bygning 26. Med udgangspunkt i deres egen forskning forklarer Anders Munk-Nielsen og Bertel Schjerning, hvordan de modellerer markedet for biler for at forstå, hvordan markedsligevægten for både nye og brugte biler påvirkes af grundlæggende reformer af bilbeskatningen. Christian Langholz Carstensen og Maria Juul Hansen fortæller, hvordan man kan modellere ligevægten på boligmarkedet med henblik på at analysere store tiltag som Lynetteholmen. Om Økonomisk Eksploratorium Hvert semester afholder Økonomisk Institut flere åbne arrangementer. Vi kalder dem Økonomisk Eksploratorium og hver gang tager vi afsæt i aktuel forskning på instituttet og vores impact i samfundet. Med arrangementerne åbner vi dørene ind til forskningsmiljøet og viser hvordan økonomi bliver brugt i virkeligheden. Økonomisk Eksploratorium er for studerende, og alle andre med interesse for økonomi, som gerne vil møde forskerne uden for forelæsningslokalerne. Derfor taler vi et sprog, som alle kan forstå. Det er gratis at deltage, du behøver ikke at tilmelde dig, og det er hyggeligt med levende lys og masser af kaffe, te og kage. Alle arrangementer finder altid sted på torsdage fra kl. 16-18 på CSS i bygning 26 på 3. sal. "
"DISTRACT seminar with Andreas Lieberoth";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2021-11-19";"11:00";"2021-11-19";"12:00";"CSS 1.2.26 (SODAS conference room)";"Mapping public sentiments and worries about digital media.";"Mapping public sentiments and worries about digital media - two studies of parents and one on the media International research on proposed psychological, behavioural and societal impacts of technogies like social media, mobile phones and tablets has been forced to run very fast indeed, to catch up with public discourses. This presentation sums up three interrelated studies investigating the views and worries of Danish parents and media representations about the risks of “screen time”. Based on a content analysis of voices and worries represented in Danish news media to map the broad public conversation, we conducted two studies of parents: In a cross-sectional design we tested the hypotheses that levels of parental worry over screen time would be mediated by demographics and individual tendencies towards perfectionism/maximising, subscription to popular neuromyths or views of the ‘good childhood’. In a case-control design we tested parents’ abilities to predict adverse outcomes of what they perceived as excessive gaming, while measuring their children’s cognitive control, psychological wellbeing and indicators of addiction according to the problem gaming litterature. When visiting SODAS I want to bring the findings from these studies together to open a discussion about how future research and communication might best benefit parents and decision makers in a space heavily influenced by worries, supositons and contested expert voices. Bio Andreas Lieberoth is an associate professor in educational psychology at the Danish School of Education (DPU), Aarhus University, and a senior research fellow at the Interacting Minds Center (IMC). His work centres on how new technologies affect behaviour, learning, work, and play, and especially how these issues are perceived in society. "
"Final & Joint Econ Dignity Workshop lll ";"Department of Economics";"2021-11-19";"12:00";"2021-11-19";"16:00";"CSS 26-2-21";"";"We would like to invite you for the final and joint Project Dignity workshop for staff and students. Until now students and staff have worked in separate tracks to ensure that different views and positions have been shared, and we look forward to discuss how we can continue the work on creating the best possible work and study environment at our Department. We will work on three themes: Professional interactions Social interactions Study environment The focus will be on how we progress and how we anchor forthcoming initiatives. As we strive to ensure the engagement and contributions of all employees and students, we strongly encourage you to take the time to engage in this finalising phase. We look very much forward to frank discussions and creative input, and we appreciate your interest and valued contribution. Please sign up for the workshop, lunch and refreshments below (no longer available). "
"Marta Giagheddu, Lund University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-11-19";"13:15";"2021-11-19";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 35 (Room 35.2.01 ), 1353 Kbh K and via Zoom";"""The Distributional Implications of Fiscal Devaluations"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""The Distributional Implications of Fiscal Devaluations"" Abstract This paper explores the distributional implications of a fiscal devaluation acquired through a shift from labor to consumption taxes in an open-economy Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian model with incomplete markets and uninsurable income risk. A permanent fiscal devaluation perfectly mimicking a nominal devaluation in aggregate implies an increase in transfers balanced by lower profits. This leaves the representative agent unaffected. However, as the higher transfers affect all agents symmetrically, while decreased profits impact agents according to their wealth, distributional effects arise. The implicit insurance provided by higher transfers benefits wealth-poor agents and mitigates the equity concerns associated with fiscal devaluations. Contact person: Jeppe Druedal"
"Attila Lindner, UCL";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2021-11-22";"13:15";"2021-11-22";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-20/21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Impact of Payroll Tax Subsidies: Theory and Evidence"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""The Impact of Payroll Tax Subsidies: Theory and Evidence"" Abstract We study the employment and wage effects of age-dependent payroll tax subsidies for both younger (under 25) and older (over 55) workers using a policy change in Hungary. Using rich administrative data and a difference-in-differences strategy, we find that employment increases in both age groups as a result of the payroll tax cut, but the effects differ by job and firm characteristics. Employment of older workers mostly increases in blue collar jobs and at less productive and lower-quality firms. On the other hand, employment of older workers at more productive and higher-quality firms is unaffected, but their wages increase in response to the tax cut. We explain these findings using an equilibrium job search model with heterogeneous firms and workers. In the model, more productive firms hire skilled workers by poaching them from other firms. Tax reduction for these firms mainly increase worker's wages, while employment is not affected. On the other hand, low-productivity firms, which tend to hire from unemployment, mainly react to the tax subsidy by increasing employment and the effect on wages is limited. These results point to important heterogeneity in the incidence of payroll tax subsidies by firm and worker types: the incidence mainly falls on low-productivity firms, and higher-skilled workers. Joint with Aniko Bıro, Reka Branyiczki, Lili Mark, Daniel Prinz Contact person: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon"
"SODAS Data Discussion 26 November 2021";"SODAS";"2021-11-26";"11:00";"2021-11-26";"12:00";"CSS, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"With Anna Rogers, Germans Savcisens & August Lohse";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Authors:Anna Rogers, PostDoc (SODAS) and Germans Savcisens, PhD fellow (DTU/SODAS) Title:Life2vec: what Transformers can learn about us from government statistics - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Author:August Lohse Title:Mapping intra governmental conflict using document embeddings Abstract: In this data discussion I expand on recent advances in using word and document embeddings for estimating latent ideological representations in parliamentary corpora. Using the transcripts of the Danish parliament, I examine how it is possible to gauge conflict in both the opposition and government in a multiparty system, using low dimensional representations of the word embeddings. I likewise discuss some issues in working with parliamentary data, such as government/non-government language and different amount of documents. "
"Rocio Madera, SMU";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-11-26";"14:15";"2021-11-26";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Assortative Mating and Income Dynamics of Couples"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Assortative Mating and Income Dynamics of Couples"" Abstract In households of two (potential) earners, the second earner can act as an important insurance channel against individual income risk. While this is agreed upon, there is no consensus on the size of this spousal insurance. In this paper, we document a large amount of heterogeneity in income co-variation of partners and show how this heterogeneity is systematically related to observable joint characteristics of couples—including age, wealth, and various measures of sorting in the labor market. In particular, we use tax register data on the full Danish population to analyze the relationship between marital sorting and the joint income dynamics of spouses. We find, first, that spouses are sorted along various dimensions, including education, career, and employer. Second, spouses that are similar along these dimensions display stronger co-movement of their annual incomes. This is consistent with the notion that the scope of spousal adjustments in response to labor income shocks of the partner is limited by the extent to which both face correlated labor market risk; e.g., spouses working in the same occupation provide worse insurance because they are exposed to the same occupation-level risk. We further provide evidence that the uncovered heterogeneity across couples translates into systematic variation in household consumption, which is a crucial driver of household-level reactions to, e.g., fiscal policy in the form of transfer payments. Finally, we consider a standard joint income process for two earners allowing for correlation of the innovations received by both earners. We find that the empirical sorting patterns translate into a stronger correlation of the permanent components of each spouse's individual earnings. Contact person: Laura Sunder-Plassmann"
"SODAS Lecture: Controversial encounters: Human entanglements with data and algorithms";"SODAS";"2021-12-03";"11:00";"2021-12-03";"12:30";"CSS, 2.1.36 or Zoom";"SODAS lecture with Sine Nørholm Just, professor of strategic communication, Department of Communication and Arts, Roskilde University";"We are delighted to host Prof. Sine Nørholm Just for the last SODAS lecture in 2021. Abstract The ever-increasing use of digital algorithms for the collection and interpretation of big data fundamentally changes the way in which we form opinions and make decisions – as individuals and in society. Previously, this transformation happened outside of the attention of the public, but it has now become a pressing issue of public concern. Data and algorithms are not only the pervasive technological infrastructure of public debate, but also a frequent topic of such debate. Thus, the entanglements of data and algorithms with society have become controversial in two respects: on the one hand, algorithmic infrastructures intensify and polarize issues of public concern. On the other hand, algorithmic decision-making is detached from citizen scrutiny and deliberation. This conjunction of societal and technological developments potentially leads to crises of trust in the technologies and institutions of democratic society. The Algorithm, Data & Democracy-project explores the reasons for this development and the possibilities for turning it around, asking how data and algorithms can serve the greater good of society. In this lecture, Sine N. Just presents the key tenets of the project as well as her own work on controversial encounters as a reconceptualization of the ideal of deliberation for algorithmic public debate. Bio Sine N. Just is professor of strategic communication at the Department of Communication and Arts, Roskilde University. She is principal investigator of Algorithms, Data & Democracy, a collaborative research project funded by the Villum and Velux Foundations. Sine studies mediated processes of strategizing and meaning formation, broadly speaking. She is particularly interested in the ways in which digital technologies influence processes of public debate and in how these technologies are, in turn, debated. Her existing research conceptualizes the interrelations of legitimacy and identity as mediated through – and established in – citizen engagement. Her empirical attention spans such issues as e.g. public debate about the future of the EU, the communicative dimensions of the global financial crisis, and organizational negotiations of diversity and difference. You can also join this lecture via Zoomhttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/66322616926?pwd=L281cGFFbmR1UUd6dXN3ckhDVDJ4UT09 Meeting ID: 663 2261 6926Passcode: 340332 This fall, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Philosophy of the Predicted Human"". The Predicted Human Being human in 2021 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. Predicting and manipulating the future behavior of human beings is nothing new. Most of the quantitative social sciences focus on this topic in a general sense. There are entire subfields of statistics dedicated to understanding what can be predicted and what cannot. Yet the current situation is different. Computers’ ability to analyze text and images has been revolutionized by the availability of vast datasets and new machine learning techniques. We are currently experiencing a similar shift in terms of how algorithms can predict (and manipulate) human behavior. Human beings can be algorithmically shaped, we can be hacked. The ambition with this semester’s SODAS Lectures is to present and discuss different perspectives on human prediction. Inviting a list of distinguished scholars and speakers whose expertise ranges from traditional social sciences, over machine learning and data science to philosophy and STS, we hope to delve into some of the principles and dynamics which govern our ability to predict and control both individual and collective human behaviors."
"Axel Gottfries, Edinburgh University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-12-03";"13:15";"2021-12-03";"14:15";"Porcelænshaven 16A, 2000 Frederiksberg, second floor, room 2.80";"""Infrequent Wage Adjustments and Unemployment Dynamics"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar";"""Infrequent Wage Adjustments and Unemployment Dynamics"" Abstract We study the allocative effects of infrequent wage adjustment in long-term employment relationships subject to idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks. We devise a novel theory of wage dynamics that follow a drunken walk, whereby wages adjust minimally such that neither firm nor worker can credibly threaten to initiate a renegotiation of the wage. The theory is amenable to analytical solution for the endogenous wage adjustment bounds, and is easily embedded into canonical models of aggregate labor market equilibrium, allowing a study of its allocative implications for unemployment dynamics. Extensions to accommodate an inflationary environment and on-the-job search further allow an interpretation of recent evidence on nominal wage adjustment, and the role of base vs. non-base pay in wage flexibility. Contact person: Birthe Larsen"
"Christina Gravert, Department of Economics";"Teaching seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2021-12-08";"09:15";"2021-12-08";"10:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-20/21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Nudging Attention – The use of field experiments to inform behavioral public policy"". Teaching seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Nudging Attention – The use of field experiments to inform behavioral public policy"" Attention is a limited resource. While traditional economic models assume that we process all information that is available when making decisions, recent empirical work has shown that this is often not the case. However, unless individuals pay attention to information or incentives, these types of policies will be ineffective in changing behavior. In this teaching seminar, I will present my field-experimental work on attention nudges, such as reminders and salience. Based on this work, we will discuss the diverse challenges in generating attention for policy."
"DISTRACT seminar with Naja Hulvej Rod";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2021-12-10";"11:00";"2021-12-10";"12:00";"Zoom";"On the 10th of December, professor of public health Naja Hulvej will give a talk at a DISTRACT seminar entitled:Smartphone Interrupted Sleep: a New Public Health Challenge.";"On the 10th of December, professor of public health Naja Hulvej will give a talk at a DISTRACT seminar entitled: Smartphone Interrupted Sleep: a New Public Health Challenge AbstractSleep is a nightly process of biological restitution and disruption of this process may lead to severe health consequences. Smartphones are easily carried into bed and offer multiple facilities that may disrupt sleep through mental activation (e.g., social media, streaming, news feeds). Also, the artificial bright light exposure from smartphones and the emission of electromagnetic radiation can delay release of sleep hormones and affect sleep latency. Thus, the massive and increasing 24-hour usage of smartphones raises public health concern. The SmartSleep Study has been established to comprehensively assess the impact on nighttime smartphone use on sleep patterns and health. An innovative combination of large-scale repeated survey information, high resolution sensor-driven smartphone data, in-depth clinical examination and registry linkage allow for detailed investigations into multisystem physiological dysregulation, obesity, sub-optimal mental health, reduced fertility, and long-term health consequences associated with night-time smartphone usage and sleep impairment. In this lecture, Naja Hulvej Rod will discuss the value of citizen science approaches to gain insight into smartphone interrupted sleep, and she will present the first findings from the SmartSleep Study. BioNaja Hulvej Rod is Chair of the Section of Epidemiology at University of Copenhagen, which is a strong interdisciplinary and international environment that contributes to the development of the field of theoretical epidemiology, with a specific focus on causal inference, complexity, and life course epidemiology. She is also leading an interdisciplinary Complexity and Big Data Group. Health is a complex phenomenon, and she aims to study the social and biological factors determining health and disease and to elucidate the underlying behavioural, psychological, and physiological mechanisms that might explain these effects. She has solid experience in working with longitudinal datasets, register-based research and complex modelling including social influences and group dynamics. To embrace complexity in epidemiology, she actively explores new sources (e.g., smartphones) of ‘big data’, incorporate system theory thinking and leverage insights across disciplines. She is involved in several citizen science projects with a direct societal engagement and impact. Join Zoom Meetinghttps://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/66709037409 Meeting ID: 667 0903 7409"
"Tim Landvoigt, Penn Wharton School ";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2021-12-10";"14:15";"2021-12-10";"15:15";"Via Zoom and at: CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?"" Abstract Governments around the world have gone on a massive fiscal expansion in response to the Covid crisis, increasing government debt to levels not seen in 75 years. How will this debt be repaid? What role do conventional and unconventional monetary policy play? We investigate debt sustainability in a New Keynesian model with an intermediary sector, realistic fiscal and monetary policy, endogenous convenience yields, and substantial risk premia. During an economic crisis of the same magnitude as the 2020 Covid recession, increased government spending and lower tax revenue lead to a large rise in government debt and raise the risk of future tax increases. We find that quantitative easing (QE) and a higher inflation target contribute to lowering the debt/GDP ratio and reducing the risk of future tax increases. QE is state- and duration-dependent: while a temporary QE policy deployed in a crisis stimulates aggregate demand, permanent QE crowds out investment and lowers long-run output. Joint with Vadim Elenev, Patrick Shultz, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Contact person: Patrick Moran"
"Stellio Del Campo, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2021-12-13";"13:00";"2021-12-13";"14:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Inequality Aversion for Climate Policy"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Inequality Aversion for Climate Policy"" Abstract A sizeable body of literature on climate economics utilizes the notion of inequality aversion. We review and synthesize published estimates of inequality aversion to guide this literature. We review both axiomatic and empirical studies, accordingly our findings draw on different lines of evidence. In the former case, a variety of ethical principles underlie the recommendations for positive inequality aversion. The latter studies use various methods to present estimates based on some form of “revealed ethics,” for example by looking at existing progressive income tax-schedules or the level of foreign aid. Here we find strong support for the view that inequality aversion is positive (but potentially small) and very little support for any value larger than 3. The vast majority of studies that look at domestic policies support values in the range 1-2, whereas studies that look at foreign aid find lower values ranging from above zero to unity. Contact person: Frikk Nesje"
"UDDanKvant virtual seminar #3 Well-being data ";"UDDanKvant";"2021-12-14";"12:00";"2021-12-14";"13:30";"Zoom ";"";"Our new research unit UDDanKvant would like to invite you for our next seminar on well-being data (trivselsdata). The seminar will contain three short presentations on research projects using well-being data on children: Miriam Gensowski: Are Children's Socio-Emotional Skills Shaped by Parental Health Shocks? Jesper Fries: Does class size affect student well-being? - A fuzzy RD approach. Lykke Sterll Christensen: Bullying in Schools – An Analysis using Danish Well-being Surveys The seminar takes place via Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/63525116270?pwd=QTRMOHBZcXdaci9sd1ZJeml1Y0g0dz09 Passcode: 231171 Meeting id: 635 2511 6270 "
"SODAS Data Discussion 17 December 2021";"SODAS";"2021-12-17";"10:30";"2021-12-17";"12:00";"Zoom";"Presentations by Peter Halkier Nicolajsen, Charles de Dampierre, Frederik Møller Henriksen & Jakob Bæk Kristensen";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Author:Peter Halkier Nicolajsen, Senior Data Scientist, LEGO Title:Effect of visible scalar feedback counts on user behaviour in kids’ social media Abstract:Does the removal of visible ‘like’ counts align with theory in terms of its effect on behaviour? This is investigated by monitoring differences in behaviour between users of a kids’ social media experience, when visible like counts are removed for a share of the user base. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Author:Charles de Dampierre, PhD student, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris and a data scientist at the Science-Po medialab. His research focuses on using the semantic approach of the web to describe and explain the different mental representations people have of a phenomenon online. Title:Mapping the anti-Semitic footprint on Youtube in France Abstract:The rise of social networks has opened up a new space for communication and debate, without borders and without limits, where racist and anti-Semitic comments are worryingly multiplying. Recent advances in Natural Language Processing now make it possible to study this type of phenomenon on a new scale. A study carried out by the Science Po medialab and published in the annual report of the French Human Rights commission on the fight against racism, anti-Semitism and xenophobia explored this subject. From a corpus of 628 French news channels on Youtube and nearly two million comments, the team trained an algorithm to recognise anti-Semitic speech in order to study the dynamics and distribution of antisemitism in the French online informational space. This exploratory approach poses many challenges that will be discussed during the meeting. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Authors:Frederik Møller Henriksen, PhD & Jakob Bæk Kristensen, Postdoc, Roskilde University Title:Building large networks based on cross-platform link sharing for analysing online partisan communities This event will take place on Zoom"
"Florian Schneider, Zürich Universitet (Job Market Seminar)";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-01-07";"10:15";"2022-01-07";"11:45";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Sorting and wage premiums in immoral work"". Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Sorting and wage premiums in immoral work"" Abstract We use surveys, laboratory experiments and administrative data to study how heterogeneity in the perceived immorality of work and in workers’ aversion to acting immorally impact labor market outcomes. Immoral work is associated with higher wages, both in administrative data and in causal evidence from a laboratory experiment. Using distinct individual measures, we show that those who find immoral behavior least aversive are more likely to be employed in immoral work in the laboratory and exhibit a relative preference for work in sectors perceived as immoral. Such sorting may impact society through the resulting workforce composition across distinct sectors. Joint with Fanny Brun and Roberto Weber Contact person: Søren Leth Petersen"
"Katrin Gödker Maastricht University - (Job Market Seminar)";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-01-07";"12:30";"2022-01-07";"13:30";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Investor Memory"". Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Investor Memory"" Abstract We provide experimental evidence of a self-serving memory bias which affects individuals' beliefs and decisions to re-invest. Individuals over-remember positive investment outcomes of their chosen investments and under-remember negative ones. Based on their memories, subjects form overly optimistic beliefs about their investment and re-invest even when doing so leads to a lower expected return. We further provide evidence on a motivational mechanism driving the memory bias. Our findings contribute to the understanding of how people learn from their experiences in financial markets. More generally, the documented memory bias offers a consistent explanation for stylized facts about investor behavior. Contact person: Søren Leth-Petersen "
"Sonja Settele, Department of Economics (Job Market Seminar)";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-01-10";"10:00";"2022-01-10";"11:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"“The drivers of socioeconomic inequality in life expectancy - Evidence from the context of cancer”. Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"“The drivers of socioeconomic inequality in life expectancy - Evidence from the context of cancer” Abstract Cancer is the leading cause of mortality in high-income countries and accounts for around one fourth of the income gradient in life expectancy. We present a sequential decomposition method, which allows to quantify the contribution of consecutive steps, such as the development of cancer, its diagnosis and treatment, to the overall income gradient in life expectancy. We apply this approach to administrative data covering the population of Denmark. Health-related factors account for the largest part of the cancer-specific difference in life expectancy between the top and bottom income tercile. In particular, low-income patients are more likely to develop the most deadly types of cancer and have a higher mortality conditional on type, stage and treatment of cancer. In contrast, factors related to health care, such as differences in the timeliness of detection and in cancer treatment, play a secondary role. Based on a traditional decomposition method, we find that cancers of the respiratory and of the digestive system – which are known to correlate with unhealthy lifestyles – are the main drivers of cancer-specific inequality in life expectancy. Our findings suggest that to mitigate inequality in cancer-specific mortality, policy makers should focus on cancer prevention, for instance through promoting healthier lifestyles. By contrast, there is little scope for reducing income-related inequality in life expectancy through more equal use of and treatment through the health care system. Contact person: Søren Leth Petersen"
"Felix Chopra, University of Bonn - (Job Market Seminar)";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-01-11";"09:00";"2022-01-11";"10:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Media Persuasion and Consumption: Evidence from the Dave Ramsey Show”. Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Media Persuasion and Consumption: Evidence from the Dave Ramsey Show"" Abstract Can entertaining programs influence individual consumption and savings decisions? I study this question by examining the impact of the Dave Ramsey Show, an iconic US radio talk show which encourages people to spend less and save more. To that end, I combine household-level expenditure records from a large scanner panel with fine-grained information about the geographic coverage of the radio show over time. Exploiting the quasi-natural experiment created by the staggered expansion of the radio show from 2004 to 2019, I find that exposure to the radio show decreases monthly household expenditures. This effect is driven by households with initially high expenditures relative to their income. In a mechanism experiment, I document that listening to the radio show has a persistent effect on people's attitudes towards consumption and debt. This suggests that attitudinal changes are a key mechanism driving behavioral change. My findings highlight the potential of entertaining mass media programs for interventions aimed at changing people's financial decisions. Contact person: Søren Leth-Petersen "
"Lydia Assouad, Paris School of Economics - (Job Market Seminar)";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-01-11";"10:15";"2022-01-11";"11:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Charismatic Leaders and Nation-Building"". Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Charismatic Leaders and Nation-Building"" Abstract This paper investigates the role of individual leaders in constructing a national identity. I study the activities and legacy of Mustafa Kemal “Atatürk”, the founder of modern Turkey. I create a novel historical database containing information on the locations and dates of Atatürk’s propaganda visits to over a quarter of Turkish cities between 1923 and 1938. Using variation over time and across space, and information on incidental visits to districts lying along Atatürk’s road, I find that Atatürk’s visits caused an increase of 7 percent in the use of first names in “Pure Turkish”, the new language introduced by the state as part of its homogenizing endeavor. I argue that this measure indicates a successful diffusion of the new national identity locally. The effect is persistent, growing in magnitude up until fifteen years after the visit before disappearing. Two main channels can explain this pattern of propagation. First, the visits provided the ground for institutional reforms, as they led to the formation of local branches of Atatürk’s party. Second, the effect is stronger in districts with more nationalistic associations, higher literacy rates and where Atatürk met with local elites, suggesting that co-optation of the elite is a key driver of the effect. My findings provide new evidence on the ability of an individual leader to construct a national identity, by rallying the elite and by fostering institution building, which in turn contribute to influencing people more broadly. Contact person: Søren Leth-Petersen"
"Alaïs Martin-Baillon, Sciences Po - (Job Market Seminar)";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-01-12";"09:00";"2022-01-12";"10:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""When should we tax firms? Optimal corporate taxation with firm heterogeneity"". Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""When should we tax firms? Optimal corporate taxation with firm heterogeneity"" Abstract Corporate fiscal policy over the business cycle is carried out in very different ways over time and across countries. Moreover, little is known about how it should be conducted. This paper studies the design of optimal fiscal policy in a heteroge- neous firm environment, when the economy is hit by aggregate shocks. It provides tools to understand when and how heterogeneous firms should be taxed or subsi- dized over cycles. To tackle this issue, I first solve a tractable model which delivers a simple distribution of firms. In this framework, I provide an analytical character- ization of the corporate tax rate over the business cycle. Then, using a fully fledged heterogeneous firm model and cutting-edge computational method, I solve for the optimal path of the tax rate in this environment. My main result is that, in both exercises, the variation of the optimal tax rate depends on the expected persistence of the aggregate shock. This is due to the presence of financial constraints that prevent the allocation of capital from being optimal. I show that the magnitude of this problem varies over the business cycle depending on the persistence of the aggregate shock. When the shock is very persistent, this problem decreases and the optimal tax rate is pro-cyclical. On the contrary, when the shock is not persistent, this problem increases and the optimal tax rate is counter-cyclical. Contact person: Søren Leth-Petersen"
"John Vincent Kramer, Stockholm University - (Job Market Seminar)";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-01-14";"10:15";"2022-01-14";"11:15";" Virtuel zoom seminar";"""The Cyclicality of Earnings Growth along the Distribution - Causes and Consequences"". Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Cyclicality of Earnings Growth along the Distribution - Causes and Consequences"" Abstract Earnings growth is more procyclical at the bottom of the income distribution than at the top. Using high-quality administrative data from Germany, I show that the heterogeneity is chiefly driven by transitions between employment and non-employment, specifically job-finding. I build a heterogeneous agent business cycle model that can rationalize these empirical findings. Agents in the model endogenously choose where to search for work in a labor market that features directed search. The model reproduces the heterogeneous procyclicality of earnings growth, as well as the contribution of job-finding, along the income distribution. I use this model to evaluate two policies aimed at reducing business cycle risk: countercyclical hiring subsidies and universal basic income (UBI). The first policy proposal increases welfare relative to the baseline economy. Implementing UBI decreases the volatility of aggregate consumption but decreases welfare overall. Contact person: Søren Leth-Petersen"
"Anna Kollerup Iversen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-01-31";"10:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen (ZOOM)";"Essays on Health Care: New insights into the economic burden of population ageing and the implementation of health policies aimed at promoting evidence-based clinical practice and consistency in the delivery of hospital care.";"Anna Kollerup Iversen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Health Care: New insights into the economic burden of population ageing and the implementation of health policies aimed at promoting evidence-based clinical practice and consistency in the delivery of hospital care"". Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår online over Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672, passcode: 1234. En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Mette Gørtz, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Mauro Laudicella, SDU, Denmark Senior Research fellow, Daniel Avdic, Monash Business School, Australia Abstract This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. Each chapter casts light on different aspects of the challenges that national health authorities face in providing universal health care coverage under resource constraints and under the continual introduction of new knowledge and new expensive medical advances. The first chapter is coauthored with Rikke Ibsen and Jakob Kjellberg. The demographic change towards a larger proportion of older individuals challenges universal health care systems in sustaining high-quality care and universal coverage without budget expansions. To build valuable predictions of the economic burden from population ageing, it is crucial to understand the determinants of individual-level health care expenditures. We examine static and dynamic health expenditure patterns across a 12-year period to shed light on future health care needs and threats to the sustainability of universal health care coverage. By applying individual-level administrative data from the entire Danish population, our study is the first to use a single data set to examine whether age, time to death and a steepening of the individual-level health care expenditure curve all contributed to individual-level health care expenditures over a 12-year observation period (2006–2018). We find that individual-level expenditures are associated with an individual’s age, an individual’s time to death and a steepening of the expenditure curve, with the steepening driven by individuals above age 75. We observe heterogeneity in the extent and age-distribution of the steepening across disease groups. The threefold combination of an ageing population, the correlation between expenditures and age per se, and a steepening of the expenditure curve make establishing financially sustainable universal health care systems increasingly difficult. To mitigate budgetary pressure, we suggest that policy-makers encourage cost-effective medical advances and health care utilization in the treatment of elderly people. Moreover, we suggest that future health care expenditure forecasts include scenarios with a steepening of the expenditure curve. In the second chapter, I examine the effects of hospital clinic closures on patients living in municipalities where their nearest breast cancer clinic closes. Recent decades have seen a large number of hospital closures and consolidations, which have been carried out to stimulate returns to volume and specialization in hospital care. In the non-acute setting of scheduled breast cancer surgery, I examine how hospital clinic closures affect cost-saving metrics and the quality of care that closure-affected patients receive. The effects are identified using closures of breast cancer clinics in Denmark from 2000 to 2011, during which time the number of clinics was more than halved. Using event study designs, I examine changes in outcomes for patients living in municipalities where the nearest clinic had been closed. The results show that breast cancer clinic closures have been welfare-improving, as they have reduced the number of costly hospitalization days and shifted surgical procedures to state-of-the-art breast-conserving techniques without generating adverse health effects and without causing crowding in non-closing clinics. An examination of the mechanisms suggests that added volume returns at non-closing clinics were of less importance than simply reallocating patients to higher-quality clinics. The third chapter is coauthored with Sarah Wadmann, Toke Bek and Jakob Kjellberg. Clinical practice variation has been problematized as a symptom of suboptimal care and inefficient resource spending. Therefore, consistency in the delivery of healthcare is a recurring policy goal. In the third chapter, we examine a case where the introduction of a new treatment is most likely to provide consistency in health care delivery because it was introduced with a national clinical practice guideline representing consensus about best clinical practice among leading clinicians, and because care delivery was highly centralized to few high-volume treatment units. Despite the consensus on best clinical practice and care centralization, this study shows pronounced regional variation in patient outcomes and treatment costs. Using a mixed-methods design, we find that the lack of consistency in care was largely unrelated to patient-specific characteristics, but seemed to reflect structural differences in the regional organization and financing of healthcare delivery. We conclude that the value of clinical practice guidelines is undermined when structural barriers limit the ability of clinicians and clinical managers to scale up treatment, and that some degree of decentralization may be a tool to maintain the treatment intensity when the treatment effect is dependent on a high treatment intensity."
"Datasprint: The political debate in Europe illuminated through text and data mining";"Copenhagen University Library Datalab (KUB Datalab) & The Master programme in social data science (SDS)";"2022-02-10";"14:00";"2022-02-11";"15:00";"CSS 35.0.12";"Come and participate in our datasprint, where we will go from data to results in less than two days while having a good time.";"Come and participate in our datasprint, where we will go from data to results in less than two days while having a good time. NB: Participants in this data sprint are expected to have at least a fundamental knowledge of Python programming and data structuring in Python. We invite students to take part in the exploration of the dataset “‘Multilingual comparable corpora of parliamentary debates ParlaMint 2.1’”. (Erjavec, Tomaž; et al., 2021, Multilingual comparable corpora of parliamentary debates ParlaMint 2.1, Slovenian language resource repository CLARIN.SI, https://hdl.handle.net/11356/1432) The ‘Multilingual comparable corpora of parliamentary debates ParlaMint 2.1’ is a unique opportunity to look inside the different national Parliament of Europe. Participants will be divided into groups. In the groups, you must decide for a relevant question that you can examine and answer with data. You have about 10 hours to answer the question and to prepare a presentation of 5-7 min, which must contain 3 - 5 graphs / visualizations. A relevant question could for example deal with the distribution of age, gender, political parties or it could be an analysis of the speeches. The dataset is highly structured. Row after row of speeches representing the political attitudes and agendas of parties and politicians from 2015 to 2020. Beside speeches, you will find metadata about the politicians, for example, speakers name, gender, party affiliation, data of birth etc. The Datasprint will take place Thursday 10 February from 2 pm. to 7 pm. and Friday 11 February from 9 am. to 3 pm. The datasprint is organized jointly by Copenhagen University Library Datalab (KUB Datalab) and The Master programme in social data science (SDS). Register here. Deadline 6. February 2022."
"SODAS Data Discussion 11 Feb 2022";"SODAS";"2022-02-11";"11:00";"2022-02-11";"12:00";"CSS, SODAS conference room 1.2.26 or via Zoom";"Presentations by Clara Johan Vandeweerdt, University of Copenhagen & Marilena Hohmann, IT University of Copenhagen";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Author:Clara Johan Vandeweerdt, post-doctoral fellow at the University of Copenhagen, Department of Political Science. Title:Using Twitter bios to map Americans' identities over time Abstract:What social identities do Americans have, and how are those identities changing over time? The most common method for answering this question has been closed-ended survey questions about ethnicity, gender, partisanship and so on. The downside of this approach is that it is difficult to capture rare identities, or identity categories that the researcher had not anticipated. A second approach has been to use open-ended survey questions. These, however, turn out to be rather difficult for respondents to understand, and answers are likely to be heavily influenced by context (e.g. previous survey questions, example identities used to clarify the question, assumed purpose of the research). Recently, a third method has emerged: extracting identities from the self-descriptions (""bios"") that users enter on social media. These bios have the advantage of being spontaneously written self-presentations, which people are able to adapt over time. So far, a few studies have tracked the appearance and disappearance of specific identity terms in user bios on Twitter. In this paper, we take a far more comprehensive approach: we use word embeddings and clustering to group all of the words used in Twitter bios into categories such as ""family"" or ""religious"". This allows us to monitor over-time change in the self-presentation of about 3.2 million geo-located American users since mid-2020, across dozens of identity categories that arise from the data itself. The method has exciting application possibilities, including pinpointing uncommon combinations of identities (e.g. ""Democrat"" and ""religious""), linking changes in identities to real-world events (such as elections, scandals or protests) and showing how identities spread through networks. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Author:Marilena Hohmann, the IT University of Copenhagen. Title: Estimating Polarization on a Social Network Abstract:Measuring polarity on social networks is important, but all current methods to do so either look only at the distribution of values ignoring the network structure, or are unable to meaningfully reduce the complexity of the input structure. Classically, users' opinions are represented on a spectrum from -1 to +1. We propose to create a polarization score, which estimates the average distance a random walker on the network will have to cover to travel from one opinion to the other. Differently from other methods, this approach takes into account both the dispersion of the opinion scores and how they are distributed on a network. We validate our score via toy examples, synthetic networks with increasing complexity, and real world data extracted from Twitter on real issues like gun control, Obamacare, and abortion in the US. We show how our polarization score is able to correctly distinguish between different scenarios that would not be able to be identified with the current alternative approaches. Venue: CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, SODAS conference room 1.2.26.Or you can also join via Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64418196849"
"DISTRACT seminar with Søren Kyllingsbæk";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2022-02-25";"11:30";"2022-02-25";"12:30";"CSS, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"Attention and Intentions";"Title:Attention and Intentions Abstract: ”Everyone knows what attention is. It is the taking possession by the mind, in clear and vivid form, of one out of what seem several simultaneously possible objects or trains of thought.” These are the famous words written by the “Father” of American psychology, Williams James in 1890. Classically, the concept of attention covered both focusing of the mind on object in the external world as well as thoughts in the internal world. However, in modern psychological science the two concepts have drifted apart in two separate research fields trying to explain attention and intentions, respectively. I will present a well-established neural theory of visual attention as well as a novel theory of intention selection. Both theories are formal and can be formulated as computational models explaining behavior in terms of psychological meaningful mechanisms and concepts. Moreover, the models build on a simple and similar conception of a stochastic race between objects or intentions that may enable a unification of the two theories in a general theory of cognitive selection. Søren Kyllingsbæk holds a position as Professor in Cognitive Psychology, Department of Psychology and Department of Computerscience, University of Copenhagen."
"SODAS Lecture: Predictive coding, neo-Kantianism and the Lifeworld";"SODAS";"2022-03-04";"11:00";"2022-03-04";"12:30";"CSS, room1.1.02 or via Zoom";"Lecture by Dan Zahavi. Professor of Philosophy and director of the Center for Subjectivity Research, University of Copenhagen. ";"We are delighted to host Professor Dan Zahavi for the first SODAS Lecture this spring. Abstract Recently, a number of neuroscientists and philosophers have taken the so-called prediction error minimization theory to support a form of radical neuro-representationalism, according to which the content of our conscious experiences is a neural construct, a brain-generated simulation. There is remarkable similarity between this account and ideas found in and developed by German neo-Kantians in the mid-19th century. Eventually, however, some neo-Kantians as well as central figures in phenomenology came to have serious doubts about the cogency and internal consistency of the model. In my talk, I will argue that this criticism has implications for our assessment of the contemporary theory as well. Bio Dan Zahavi is Professor of Philosophy and director of the Center for Subjectivity Research at the University of Copenhagen. Zahavi’s primary research area is phenomenology and philosophy of mind, and their intersection with empirical disciplines such as psychiatry and psychology. In addition to a number of scholarly works on the phenomenology of Husserl, Zahavi has mainly written on the nature of selfhood, self-consciousness, intersubjectivity, empathy, and most recently on topics in social ontology. His most important publications include Self-awareness and Alterity (1999/2020), Husserl’s Phenomenology (2003), Subjectivity and Selfhood (2005), The Phenomenological Mind (together with Shaun Gallagher) (2008/2012/2021), Self and Other (2014), Husserl’s Legacy (2017), and Phenomenology: The Basics (2019). Since 2020, Zahavi has been PI on a 5-year research project entitled Who are We? which is supported by the European Research Council and the Carlsberg Foundation. Zahavi’s writings have been translated into more than 30 languages. This spring, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Philosophy of the Predicted Human"". The Predicted Human Being human in 2022 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. Predicting and manipulating the future behavior of human beings is nothing new. Most of the quantitative social sciences focus on this topic in a general sense. There are entire subfields of statistics dedicated to understanding what can be predicted and what cannot. Yet the current situation is different. Computers’ ability to analyze text and images has been revolutionized by the availability of vast datasets and new machine learning techniques. We are currently experiencing a similar shift in terms of how algorithms can predict (and manipulate) human behavior. Human beings can be algorithmically shaped, we can be hacked. The ambition with this semester’s SODAS Lectures is to present and discuss different perspectives on human prediction. Inviting a list of distinguished scholars and speakers whose expertise ranges from traditional social sciences, over machine learning and data science to philosophy and STS, we hope to delve into some of the principles and dynamics which govern our ability to predict and control both individual and collective human behaviors. Venue: CSS, room 1.1.02or via Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/62932255935"
"Nina Roussille, MIT/LSE ";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-03-15";"13:15";"2022-03-15";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Worker Beliefs About Outside Options"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Worker Beliefs About Outside Options"" Abstract Workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage. In particular, low-paid workers underestimate wages elsewhere. We document this anchoring bias by eliciting workers’ beliefs in a representative survey in Germany and comparing them to measures of actual outside options in linked administrative labor market data. In an equilibrium model, such anchoring can give rise to monopsony and labor market segmentation. In line with the model, misperceptions are particularly pronounced among workers in low-wage firms. If workers had correct beliefs, at least 10% of jobs, concentrated in low-wage firms, would not be viable at current wages. Joint with S. Jager, C. Roth and B Schoefer Contact person: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon"
"SODAS Data Discussion 18 March 2022";"SODAS";"2022-03-18";"11:00";"2022-03-18";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26 or via Zoom";"Data Discussion with Ole Teutloff and Simon Polichinel von der Maase University of Copenhagen";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Author:Ole Teutloff, PhD, SODAS, University of Copenhagen Title:Show me how you look and I tell you what you are worth: Visual measures of human capital Abstract:In this research project (idea), we plan to use profile pictures of online freelancers to construct visual measures of human capital. We plan to structure our research as follows. Firstly, we use Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) to predict hourly wages from profile pictures without any further assumptions. Thereby, we examine to what extent our model can learn how appearance matters for hourly wages without any directive by the researchers of what to focus on. Secondly, we extract various features from the pictures (e.g. gender, ethnicity, age, attractiveness etc.), combine them with non-visual background features (such as education and work experience) and use them to predict the hourly wages of freelancers. To extract the visual features, we train our CNN on publicly available image datasets and evaluate the performance using a professional service such as Face++. Lastly, we combine extracted features, background variables and the profile pictures into one prediction model, and evaluate the gains of using the full image. To further investigate the importance of the extracted features (e.g. gender, ethnicity, attractiveness, education, experience), we also pursue a regression strategy with embeddings created by the CNN. This allows us to evaluate how much the image adds to the prediction on top of the features that we have previously identified and extracted. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Author:Simon Polichinel von der Maase, PhD, Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen Title: ConflictNet 1.0 - A probabilistic recurrent Unet for global conflict forecasting. Abstract: I here presented a Recurrent (approximate Bayesian) Unet for global conflict forecasting. The network is able to capture the spatial and temporal patterns inherent in violent conflicts and use these patterns to generate forecastings of future conflict patterns. The network works well for both regression and classification task (i.e. estimating the probability of conflict and the magnitude of conflict). It is also able to effectively generate a posterior distribution thus quantifying the model uncertainty. Venue: CSS, Sodas conference room 1.2.26or via Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64036059160"
"EduQuant virtual seminar: Laëtitia Renée ";"EduQuant, University of Copenhagen";"2022-03-21";"15:00";"2022-03-21";"16:00";"Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/66035106549?pwd=M0V3RWVsL3BrUXAxRGhNYWFXNjZnQT09 Passcode: 136200";"";"Laëtitia Renée: The Long-Term Effects of Financial Aid and Career Education: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment Despite large investments in interventions aiming to increase college attendance, little is known about their long-term effects. In this paper, I study the effects of the Future to Discover Project, a randomized experiment that offered 4,400 Canadian high school students either the chance to participate in several career planning workshops in high school or the chance to receive an $8,000 grant upon college enrollment. I match the experimental data to post-secondary institution records and income tax files to examine the effects of the interventions on college enrollment, graduation, and earnings, from the end of high school till the age of 28. I show that the career education intervention, by affecting students’ decisions to enroll in four-year colleges, greatly improved their outcomes in the long run. In contrast, I do not find any evidence that providing students with additional financial support had any long-term monetary benefits, which is consistent with the fact that a number of grants and loans are already available in Canada. My findings also shed light on the mechanisms explaining the gap in educational attainment by parental income. I show that informational and behavioral barriers, rather than financial constraints, together with differences in academic achievement, account for most of the gap in four-year college graduation between high- and low-income students. Read the full article More information about the research unit EduQuant Login details: Zoom link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/66035106549?pwd=M0V3RWVsL3BrUXAxRGhNYWFXNjZnQT09 Passcode: 136200 "
"DISTRACT seminar with Steen Erik Navrbjerg";"DISTRACT - SODAS";"2022-03-25";"11:00";"2022-03-25";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"Title: Virtual Management during the Corona Crisis – results and methodological considerations";"Title: Virtual Management during the Corona Crisis – results and methodological considerations Abstract: The project “Virtual Management during the Corona Crisis” followed a number of managers and employees during the 1st and 2nd lockdowns in 2020. The project sheds light on management and collaboration during the corona crisis - and what we have learned. In hindsight, the corona crisis gave us the potential to change our working lives significantly. As such, the crisis posed many challenges but has also opened doors. These doors would not have opened if the crisis had not taught us new ways of management and collaboration at work place level. Many managers have had to adjust their management style according to the new virtual reality, and for some, it has been a steep learning curve. Question is to what management has been willing to learn from the crisis - and what to take with us in the future. While a major concern for managers during the first lock-downs was if productivity could be maintained while employees worked from at home, the focus had changed significantly in the second lockdown where work place coherence was on management agenda – i.e., what kind of work place do we have when we don’t meet physically. The project took place in the midst of the 1st and 2nd lockdowns of the Corona crisis. The research object was a ‘moving target’ as the 1st lock-down was replaced by opening of society, only to be followed by an 2nd lockdown. At the same time, interviewees where still in the process of defining their roles in a ‘now normal’. The particular challenges of conducting ‘corona research’ will be discussed, as well as potential new learnings. The empirical base is two rounds of interviews, 36 during the 1st Lockdown and 28 during the 2nd, supplemented with a questionnaire with 594 HR-managers. Associate Professor Steen E. Navrbjerg from FAOS, Employment Relations Research Centre, University of Copenhagen, and Professor Dana Minbaeva from Department of Strategy and Innovation, Copenhagen Business School carried out the project. Innovation Fund Denmark funded the project. More detailed information. Steen E. Navrbjerg is an Associate Professor at FOAS, Employment Relations Research Centre, University of Copenhagen"
"Edouard Challe, European University Institute, Florence";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2022-04-01";"13:15";"2022-04-01";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Inequality and optimal exchange-rate stabilization"". Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network.";"""Inequality and optimal exchange-rate stabilization"" Abstract We study optimal exchange rate stabilization in a tractable Small Open HANK Economy with endogenous consumption risk and rich cross-sectional inequalities. Besides the closed-economy channels, aggregate demand management operates through the real exchange rate, which affects both GDP (through expenditure switching) and national income (through the relative price of foreign goods) and ultimately feeds back to domestic cross-sectional heterogeneity. We show that this channel requires stabilizing the exchange rate more in HANK than in RANK after a domestic productivity shock; this is because stabilizing the exchange rate mitigates expenditure switching and the implied fluctuations in consumption risk and inequalities. In contrast, the optimal response to capital-flow shocks in HANK resembles that in RANK. Read more about Edouard Challe Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Rasmus Kehlet Berg forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universiet, bygning 26, CSS 26.2.21";"2022-04-05";"14:00";"";"";"";"";"Rasmus Kehlet Berg forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Technology and the Environment in General Equilibrium"" Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21 kl. 14:00. En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Bertel Schjerning, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Thomas Rutherford, University of Wisconsin-Madison, US Professor Lena Kiting, DTU, DK Abstract The dissertation consists of three self-contained parts that deal with representing technology in environmental economic models. All parts offer ways for improving economic models by leveraging knowledge on technologies collected by other academic disciplines. The first two parts explore new ways for economic models to capture the potential for renewable energy technologies. One of the main challenges of reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is that most cheap, renewable energy generation is intermittent; the availability of wind or solar power depends on natural conditions, such as wind speed and cloud cover. We develop a technology-rich model for electricity and district heat systems and show that it captures the key effects of intermittency. We show that the model can be solved efficiently alongside conventional economic models using smoothing techniques. This integrated framework can be used to evaluate policies e.g. aimed at lowering emissions through electrification of polluting economic activity, such as transportation, using intermittent renewable energy. The second part of the dissertation uses the technology-rich model from part one to investigate the value and potential of electricity storage. We show that in the Danish context, investing in electricity storage reduces greenhouse gas emissions and lowers average prices significantly. However, the investment costs of lithium-ion batteries prohibit them from being cost-effective until after 2030. We show that this is largely a result of neighboring countries’ strategy of investing in storage technologies and intermittent renewables, thus emphasizing the importance of a technology-rich model that includes details on the transmission grid.Finally, while parts one and two focus on the scope for emission reductions through renewable energy, part three focuses on modeling reductions through abatement technologies. We provide a novel framework that allows us to use much more detailed data on abatement technologies than state of the art environmental economic models. We show under what conditions current best practices over- and underestimates abatement costs when technology data is not appropriately represented in the economic model."
"Thomas Rutherford, University of Wisconsin";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-04-06";"11:00";"2022-04-06";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""DICE revisited: Getting the Social Cost of Carbon Right(er)"".";"""DICE revisited: Getting the Social Cost of Carbon Right(er)"" Abstract The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies the economic cost to society of each ton of carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. It has become the key metric for the cost-benefit analysis of climate policies to derive socially optimal greenhouse gas emission pathways and long-term atmospheric temperature targets. Calculations of SCC requires the use of integrated assessment models that capture the full impacts of anthropogenic emissions through the carbon cycle, including economic damages from climate change. Uncertainties in natural science, technological development, or different normative judgements in economic valuations explain a wider range of SCC estimates. In this paper, we focus on three SCC determinants: (i) the carbon cycle, (ii) capital malleability, and (iii) the availability of negative emissions technologies. We perform structural sensitivity analysis using the well-established integrated assessment model DICE. Our analysis indicates that alternative settings for the carbon cycle are of minor importance whereas differences in capital malleability and the cost-potential for negative emissions technologies can have substantial implications for SCC values. Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"SODAS Lecture: Automatically explaining fact checking predictions";"SODAS";"2022-04-08";"11:00";"2022-04-08";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"SODAS Lecture with Isabelle Augenstein, Associate Professor, Department of Computer Science, University of Copenhagen";"We are delighted to host Isabelle Augenstein for this SODAS Lecture. Title: Automatically explaining fact checking predictions Abstract: The past decade has seen a substantial rise in the amount of mis- and disinformation online, from targeted disinformation campaigns to influence politics, to the unintentional spreading of misinformation about public health. This development has spurred research in the area of automatic fact checking, from approaches to detect check-worthy claims and determining the stance of tweets towards claims, to methods to determine the veracity of claims given evidence documents. These automatic methods are often content-based, using natural language processing methods, which in turn utilise deep neural networks to learn higher-order features from text in order to make predictions. As deep neural networks are black-box models, their inner workings cannot be easily explained. At the same time, it is desirable to explain how they arrive at certain decisions, especially if they are to be used for decision making. While this has been known for some time, the issues this raises have been exacerbated by models increasing in size, and by EU legislation requiring models to be used for decision making to provide explanations, and, very recently, by legislation requiring online platforms operating in the EU to provide transparent reporting on their services. Despite this, current solutions for explainability are still largely lacking in the area of fact checking. This talk provides a brief introduction to the area of automatic fact checking, including claim check-worthiness detection, stance detection and veracity prediction. It then presents some first solutions to generating and automatically evaluating explanations for fact checking. Bio: Isabelle Augenstein is an Associate Professor at the University of Copenhagen, Department of Computer Science, where she heads the Copenhagen Natural Language Understanding research group as well as the Natural Language Processing section. Her main research interests are fact checking, low-resource learning, and explainability. Prior to starting a faculty position, she was a postdoctoral researcher at University College London, and before that a PhD student at the University of Sheffield. She currently holds a DFF Sapere Aude Research Leader fellowship on 'Learning to Explain Attitudes on Social Media’, and is a member of the Young Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters. This spring, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Philosophy of the Predicted Human"". The Predicted Human Being human in 2022 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. Predicting and manipulating the future behavior of human beings is nothing new. Most of the quantitative social sciences focus on this topic in a general sense. There are entire subfields of statistics dedicated to understanding what can be predicted and what cannot. Yet the current situation is different. Computers’ ability to analyze text and images has been revolutionized by the availability of vast datasets and new machine learning techniques. We are currently experiencing a similar shift in terms of how algorithms can predict (and manipulate) human behavior. Human beings can be algorithmically shaped, we can be hacked. The ambition with this semester’s SODAS Lectures is to present and discuss different perspectives on human prediction. Inviting a list of distinguished scholars and speakers whose expertise ranges from traditional social sciences, over machine learning and data science to philosophy and STS, we hope to delve into some of the principles and dynamics which govern our ability to predict and control both individual and collective human behaviors. Venue: CSS, Sodas conference room 1.2.26or via Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/61119140063"
"Sarah Zubairy, Texas A&M University";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2022-04-08";"14:15";"2022-04-08";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations"". ";"""State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations"" Abstract We consider a New Keynesian model with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) and show that government spending is much more effective in stimulating output in a low-inflation recession relative to a high-inflation recession. The government spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the nature of recession matters due to the opposing response of inflation. In a demand-driven recession, inflation falls, preventing real wages from falling, leading to unemployment, while inflation rises in a supply-driven recession limiting the consequences of DNWR on employment. We document supporting empirical evidence, using both historical time series data and cross-sectional data from U.S. states. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Julien Xavier Daubanes, Université de Genève";"FRU (Finance Research Unit)";"2022-04-20";"13:30";"2022-04-20";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, room 26.1.21B), 1353 Copenhagen K";"""Why do firms issue green bonds?"". Seminar arranged by FRU (Finance Research Unit).";"""Why do firms issue green bonds?"" Abstract We hold that green finance certification allows managers to signal firms' efficiency at addressing the energy transition. In our model of green bond issuance, signaling amplifies incentives to decarbonise. The model predicts that firms' managers are more inclined to issue green bonds when they are more interested in stock prices. We test this prediction by exploiting cross-industry differences in the stock-price sensitivity of managers' compensation and cross-country variations in effective carbon prices. The effect of managers' incentives on green bond issuance increases with carbon penalties. These results suggest that green bonds are complements to, rather than substitutes for, carbon pricing. (Joint with Shema Frédéric Mitali and Jean-Charles Rochet. Contact person: Stefan Voigt."
"SODAS Data Discussion 22 April 2022";"SODAS";"2022-04-22";"11:00";"2022-04-22";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"Data Discussion with Cathrine Valentin Kjær and Elena Fernandez Fernandez";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Cathrine Valentin Kjær, Research Assistant at SODAS, working on the HOPE project. Title: Content Removal by Social Media Platforms Abstract: What content is removed from social media platforms and what drives these decisions? Historically, large-scale censorship of public debate has been a state monopoly . With the advent of Web 2.0, that has changed; as the public sphere is increasingly moving to global private social media platforms, so has the ability to censor the public debate. In such a content removal system governed by private social media companies, it is increasingly important to map potential biases and discuss their democratic implications, as private companies are not obliged by democratic ideals. Despite this, most studies focus on analyzing the content which remains on the platforms rather than what is deleted. We address this shortcoming, presenting the first successful attempt at identifying and analyzing content removed by Twitter. Exploiting the fact that Twitter replaces every deleted tweet with a label explaining why the tweet is missing, we set up a novel method for data collection. Using this method we continuously monitor and scrape the labels of around 16 million live-collected English Tweets. With this unique data set, we are then able to characterize what makes tweets most likely to be deleted. Our study contributes to existing research on online censorship and the nature of Twitter as a social science datasource. More broadly, we highlight a major democratic challenge of digital democracy, namely that on Twitter, certain political topics and people seem to be systematically excluded from online public debate. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenter: Elena Fernandez Fernandez, Marie Curie Post-Doctoral Researcher, University of Zurich, Department of Computational Linguistics. Title: “Time, Technology and Globalization. A study of the role of technology in processes of modernization and globalization using the Press, Big Data, and Computational Research Methodologies.” Abstract: The EU-funded GLOTECH project comprises a study of the role of technology in processes of modernisation and globalisation using the press, big data and computational research methods. It will explore the role of technology as a factor of time standardisations in Western industrialised societies as well as a booster of cultural homogenisation, and as a consequence, an agent of modernisation and globalisation. The analysis will focus on the press in European countries, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The methodology will include different computational research methods, contributing to significant advances in digital humanities and computational social sciences. "
"Mike Elsby, University of Edinburgh";"KU - CBS Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2022-04-22";"13:15";"2022-04-22";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Vacancy chains"". KU - CBS Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network.";"""Vacancy chains"" Abstract Replacement hiring—recruitment that seeks to replace positions vacated by workers who quit—plays a central role in establishment dynamics. We document this phenomenon using rich microdata on U.S. establishments, which frequently report no net change in their employment, often for years at a time, despite facing substantial gross turnover in the form of quits. We devise a tractable model in which replacement hiring is driven by a novel structure of frictions, combining firm dynamics, on-the-job search, and investments into job creation that are sunk at the point of replacement. A key implication is the emergence of vacancy chains. Quantitatively, the model reconciles the incidence of replacement hiring with the large dispersion of labor productivity across establishments, and largely replicates the empirical volatility and persistence of job creation and, thereby, unemployment. Contact person: Antoine Bertheau "
"Kursus i klimaøkonomi";"";"2022-04-26";"08:30";"2022-04-26";"16:00";"Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultet, Øster Farimagsgade ";"Hvad betyder valg af diskonteringsrente for klimapolitiske prioriteringer på kort og lang sigt? Hvad er de bedste instrumenter og virkemidler for at reducere udledningen af ​​drivhusgasser?";"Hvad betyder valg af diskonteringsrente for klimapolitiske prioriteringer på kort og lang sigt? Hvad er de bedste instrumenter og virkemidler for at reducere udledningen af ​​drivhusgasser? Det du kunne svare på, når du har deltaget i vores kursus Klimapolitik: Valg af diskonteringsrente, instrumenter og virkemidler. Kurset henvender sig til medarbejdere, der arbejder med klimapolitik og økonomi i ministerier, sektorministerierne, interesseorganisationer mv. Kurset giver dig indsigt i spørgsmål som dem her:- Hvad er begrænsningerne i de danske retningslinjer på diskontering?- Hvordan kan klimaprojekter behandles anderledes end standardprojekter i cost-benefit-analyser?- Hvad er de rigtige valg af instrumenter i en lille åben økonomi som Danmark?- Hvordan kan store projekter som CCS bedst reguleres?- Hvad er succeshistorierne om nudging som klimapolitisk virkemiddel andre steder?- Hvordan kan nudging implementeres på en god måde i Danmark? Tilmeld dig kurset på vores kursus-side. Baggrund Dansk klimapolitik tager udgangspunkt i at forfølge de samfundsøkonomisk mest effektive tiltag. Baseret på beregninger identificerer man de bedste instrumenter til at opnå dette. Et nøgleelement i beregningerne er diskonteringsrenten, der hjælper med at oversætte fremtidens gevinster til nutidig samfundsværdi. Klimaproblematikken adskiller sig fra mange andre samfundsmæssige udfordringer ved at strække sig over en meget lang tidshorisont. Derfor er det vigtigt, at diskonteringsrenten anvendes rigtigt, så samfundet kan prioritere de mest effektive klimainstrumenter og virkemidler set i lyset af den lange tidshorisont. På dette kursus underviser forskere fra Økonomi på KU i, hvordan diskonteringsrenten kan bruges til at forme klimapolitikken, og hvilke instrumenter og virkemidler man kan bruge til at implementere klimapolitikken – f.eks. valg af instrumenter i en lille åben økonomi, dilemmaer forbundet med regulering kontra marked og nudging som et alternativ til mere traditionelle virkemidler. Det tekniske niveau er sammenligneligt med kandidatkurser på Økonomistudiet. Program 08.30-09.00: Kaffe, the og croissanter 09.00-11.00: Diskonteringsrente og den grønne omstilling: begrænsninger og muligheder i de danske retningslinjerv. Frikk Nesje 11.15-13.45 (inkl. frokost): Klimapolitiske instrumenter: dilemmaer ved regulering af drivhusgasemissioner i Danmarkv. Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen og Peter Birch Sørensen 14.00-16.00: Nudging som et klimapolitisk virkemiddel: nye måder at nedbringe emissionerv. Christina Gravert Om underviserne Frikk Nesje er adjunkt på Økonomisk Institut, KU, hvor han forsker og underviser studerende i diskonteringsrenten i de klimaøkonomiske modeller. Frikk har en ph.d. fra Universitetet i Oslo, hvor hans afhandling i 2021 udløste den norske konges guldmedalje og European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists' pris for bedste afhandling i 2020. Sammen med internationale kolleger har Frikk rådgivet økonomer i præsident Bidens administration om netop valget af diskonteringsrente. Christina Gravert er lektor på Økonomisk Institut og CEBI, KU, hvor hun forsker og underviser studerende i adfærdsøkonomi. Specifikt studerer Christina, hvordan folk træffer beslutninger, og hvordan de kan motiveres eller nudges til at ""gøre det rigtige."" Christina arbejder med emner som miljømæssig bæredygtighed, sundhed og velgørende gaver, og blev i 2019 udvalgt som en af Berlingskes Talent 100. Hun har en ph.d. fra Aarhus Universitet and har tidligere været postdoc ved Göteborgs Universitet. Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen er adjunkt på Økonomisk Institut, KU, hvor han forsker og underviser studerende i miljø- og klimaøkonomi. Derudover arbejder Peter med at udvikle GrønReform, som er en ny samfundsøkonomisk model til at udarbejde økonomiske analyser om den grønne omstilling. Han har tidligere arbejdet i De Økonomiske Råds sekretariat, hvor han bl.a. arbejdede med EU’s kvotehandelssystem og CO2e-lækage. Peter har desuden skrevet en ph.d. om miljøpolitikkens effekter på den teknologiske udvikling. Peter Birch Sørensen er professor på Økonomisk Institut, KU, hvor han bl.a. forsker i miljø-, ressource- og klimaøkonomi, herunder optimal klimapolitik. Derudover arbejder Peter med at udvikle GrønReform, som er en ny samfundsøkonomisk model til at udarbejde økonomiske analyser om den grønne omstilling. Han er udpeget til at deltage i regeringens ekspertgruppe, der skal undersøge, hvordan der kan etableres en general CO2e-afgift i Danmark. Derudover har Peter tidligere været formand for både Klimarådet og De Økonomiske Råd."
"SODAS lecture with Aniko Hannak";"SODAS";"2022-04-29";"11:00";"2022-04-29";"12:30";"SODAS conference room 1.02.26";"New Faces of Bias in Online Platforms ";"Title: New Faces of Bias in Online Platforms Abstract: The internet is fundamentally changing how we socialize, work, or gather information. The recent emergence of content serving services creates a new online ecosystem in which companies constantly compete for users' attention and use sophisticated user tracking and personalization methods to maximize their profit. My research investigates the potential downsides of the algorithms commonly used by online platforms. Since these algorithms learn from human data, they are bound to recreate biases that are present in the real world. In this talk, I will first present a measurement methodology developed to monitor personalization algorithms in the context of platforms such as Google Search or online stores. Second, I will talk about recommendation and rating systems in the context of employment related platforms such as job search sites, freelancing marketplaces and online professional communities, and their danger to reinforce gender inequalities. Bio: Aniko is an assistant professor at the University of Zurich, leading the Social Computing Group. She received her PhD from the College of Computer & Information Science at Northeastern University, where she was part of the Lazer Lab and the Algorithmic Auditing Group. Aniko’s main interest lies in computational social science, more specifically she is focusing on the co-evolution of online systems and their users. Broadly, her work investigates a variety of content serving websites such as search engines, online stores, job search sites, or freelance marketplaces and uncovers potential negative consequences of the big data algorithms that these websites deploy. This spring, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Philosophy of the Predicted Human"". The Predicted Human Being human in 2022 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. Predicting and manipulating the future behavior of human beings is nothing new. Most of the quantitative social sciences focus on this topic in a general sense. There are entire subfields of statistics dedicated to understanding what can be predicted and what cannot. Yet the current situation is different. Computers’ ability to analyze text and images has been revolutionized by the availability of vast datasets and new machine learning techniques. We are currently experiencing a similar shift in terms of how algorithms can predict (and manipulate) human behavior. Human beings can be algorithmically shaped, we can be hacked. The ambition with this semester’s SODAS Lectures is to present and discuss different perspectives on human prediction. Inviting a list of distinguished scholars and speakers whose expertise ranges from traditional social sciences, over machine learning and data science to philosophy and STS, we hope to delve into some of the principles and dynamics which govern our ability to predict and control both individual and collective human behaviors. Venue: CSS, Sodas conference room 1.2.26"
"Christoffer Jessen Weissert forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-04-29";"15:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS 26.2.21";"""Essays in Macroeconomics: Inflation Inequality, Consumption Behavior and Impulse Responses"".";"Christoffer Jessen Weissert forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays in Macroeconomics: Inflation Inequality, Consumption Behavior and Impulse Responses"". Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21. En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Tomas Høgholm Jørgensen , Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Assistant Professor Jessie Handbury, University of Pennsylvania, US Assistant Professor Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Princeton University, US Abstract The dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters on topics within macroeconomics. All chapters share an orientation towards empirical analysis of macroeconomic questions. New methods for empirical analysis are presented in the first and third chapter. The method presented in the first chapter contributes to analyses of inflation inequality. The method presented in the third chapter contributes to analyses on how the economy responds to shocks. The inflation inequality discussed in the first chapter relates to households' consumption behavior. In the first and second chapter specific empirical analyses on US households' consumption behavior is conducted. Chapter 1 / A Nonhomothetic Price Index and Inflation Heterogeneitywith Phillip Hochmuth & Markus PetterssonIn this chapter, we look at a classic and central topic in macroeconomics: inflation. Specifically, we look at inflation at the household level. We derive a microfounded, nonhomothetic generalization of all known superlative price indices, including the Fisher, the Törnqvist, and the Sato-Vartia indices. The index largely avoids the need for estimation, aggregates consistently across heterogeneous households, and admits different index weights across the expenditure distribution. The latter property rationalizes the methods used in most previous measurements of inflation inequality. In an empirical application to the United States using CEX-CPI data for the period 1995 to 2020, we find: (i) poor and rich households experience on average the same inflation rate; but (ii) inflation for the poorest decile is more than 2.5 times as volatile as that of the richest decile; and (iii) this higher volatility primarily stems from a larger exposure to price changes in food, gas and utilities. In these findings, substitution between goods as prices change plays only a second-order role. Instead, almost all differences come from mechanical changes in the cost of different base-period reference baskets.Chapter 2 / Quality and Consumption Basket Heterogeneitywith Rasmus B. LarsenIn this chapter, we look at another core topic within macroeconomics: consumption behavior. We investigate what households put into their shopping carts and study in detail the differences across the income distribution. We study how the quality of households' consumption baskets varies with income using detailed household-level panel data on purchases. By exploiting the randomized disbursement timing of the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008, we show that households increased spending when receiving the payment and spent more money on goods of higher quality. While the spending effects are concentrated among low-income households, middle-income households drive the quality effects. These findings support the theory of nonhomothetic demand. To model this, we embed nonhomothetic preferences over quantity and quality in an otherwise standard buffer-stock model. Contrary to the standard model, the nonhomothetic model can be used to match that the marginal propensity to spend is decreasing in income. Moreover, the calibrated model implies that households trade up in the quality of consumption when receiving a transitory income payment. Compared to the standard model, our nonhomothetic model also generates a more unequal wealth distribution, which is closer to the data.Chapter 3 / Local projections or VARs? A data-driven selection rule for finite-sample estimation of impulse responseswith Anders F. KronborgIn this chapter we look at how one in empirical analyses estimates impulse responses. We derive a data-driven rule for when to choose local projection, vector autoregression (VAR) or a mix of these two methods’ estimates of impulse responses in finite samples. We show that local projections and VARs are linked in finite samples: local projections can be derived from a first-step estimate of the VAR impulse responses and a second-step linear correction of the forecast errors of the VAR. The sum of these two estimates yields the local projection estimate and the second-step estimate therefore captures the difference between local projections and VARs. We coin the difference between local projections and VARs the local projections contribution to VARs and since this difference is estimated we can perform inference on it. The selection rule is based on this inference and depends on a simple key statistic for the local projection contribution: the coefficient of variation. When the coefficient of variation is large, the local projection contribution is imprecisely estimated and more weight is put on the VAR estimate. When the coefficient of variation is small more weight is put on the local projection estimate. We show that the selection rule performs well in a host of Monte Carlo studies. "
"Francesco Bianchi, Johns Hopkins University and Duke University";"Department of Economics";"2022-05-02";"15:00";"2022-05-02";"16:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Diagnostic Business Cycles"". Distinguished Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Diagnostic Business Cycles"" Abstract A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decisionmakers' forecasts of their future circumstances appear overly influenced by the new information embedded in their current circumstances. We adopt the diagnostic expectations (DE) paradigm (Bordalo et al. (2018)) to capture this feature of belief formation and develop the micro-foundations for applying DE to business cycle models, while demonstrating its empirical relevance for aggregate dynamics. First, we develop behavioral foundations to address the theoretical challenges associated with modeling the feedback between optimal actions and agents' DE beliefs in the presence of (i) endogenous variables and (ii) time-inconsistencies in those optimal actions due to memory recall based on distant past. Second, we build on our theory to propose a portable solution method to study DE in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, which we use to estimate a quantitative New Keynesian model augmented with DE. We uncover a critical role played by both endogenous states and distant memory recall under DE in successfully replicating the boom-bust economic cycle observed in the data in response to a monetary policy shock. Joint with Cosmin Ilut and Hikaru Saijo Contact person: Emiliano Santoro"
"Johan Sæverud forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-05-10";"09:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS 26.2.21";"Johan Sæverud forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: The Danish Labor Market. Four empirical examinations"".";"Johan Sæverud forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: The Danish Labor Market Four empirical examinations"". Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21. Link til at deltage on-line: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/61347378204?, kode: 1234 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Torben Heien Nielsen , Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Paul Bingley, VIVE, DK Professor Adeline Delavande, University of Technology Sydney, Australia Abstract This thesis consists of four self-contained research papers, all related to the Danish labor market. All four papers leverage the extensive Danish administrative data, and two of the papers use purpose-designed surveys. The chapters can be read independently and each chapter contains references and appendices. Chapter 1: Communicating Social Security Reform. The first chapter, co-authored with Andrew Caplin, Eungik Lee, and Søren Leth-Petersen, investigates how a Danish social security reform in 2006 has been internalized by the public. The reform changed statutory social security eligibility age from a fixed value, to depend on life expectancy and it varies for different cohorts. Based on survey answers, we elicit subjective distributions of individual beliefs on social security eligibility age, and test whether a simple information treatment changes people's beliefs. We find that younger cohorts are more uncertain and have beliefs that are, on average, further from the statutory eligibility age. We also find that people who get the treatment move closer to the statutory eligibility age in beliefs, but for younger cohorts there is still a significant gap. The age at which people plan to retire is also affected by the treatment. The uncertainty is not affected by the information treatment. Finally, we build a theoretical model that rationalizes the updating of beliefs. Chapter 2: How does Divorce Affect Adult Labor Market Outcomes of Children? In the second chapter, I document how the correlation between a divorce and adverse labor market for the children is probably driven entirely by selection effects, meaning that parents who are more likely to divorce are also more likely to have children who for example earn less as adults. I use a sibling fixed effects approach to control for unobserved family heterogeneity, by comparing the outcomes of siblings within a family. The siblings are treated differentially by the divorce and this variation identifies the causal effect. I find no effect across a range of different labor market outcomes measured at age 32. Chapter 3: Worker Productivity from Tenure and Experience: Measurement from the Firm Perspective. In the third chapter, co-authored with Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Søren Leth-Petersen, and Matthew D. Shapiro, we directly measure how worker productivity is affected by tenure and experience by using a survey with hypothetical questions to firm managers. We find significant heterogeneity in the amount of tenure needed to reach the full productivity, suggesting that empirical works that aim to estimate returns to tenure and experience should allow for variation in returns across jobs. In the survey we also directly elicit wage returns to tenure and experience (results in line with the literature), and we construct a model that estimates productivity returns to tenure and experience, showing that they differ from the wage returns. Chapter 4: Inequality and Dynamics of Earnings and Disposable Income in Denmark 1987-2016. The fourth chapter, which is co-authored with Søren Leth-Petersen, documents how earnings inequality has changed over time, both in terms of the level of earned income and the growth rates. We show that growth rates for earned income has pro-cyclical skewness and considerable pro-cyclical kurtosis, meaning people face more negative and larger shocks during recessions. On top of the cyclicality, the income shocks are heterogeneous across ages and income levels. These facts are important for modelling income processes, where shocks are often modelled using only the second moment and disregarding heterogeneity. We argue that disposable income is a more relevant measure, as it reflects consumption opportunity, and conduct the same analysis using disposable income. For this measure, skewness and kurtosis are at a low level, they are not varying across the business cycle, and they display very little heterogeneity. Our results show that higher order moments are less important when characterizing the stochastic properties of disposable income growth in contrast to earnings growth. This chapter is part of the Global Repository of Income Dynamics project, read more here: https://mebdi.org/global-repository-income-dynamics."
"Esben Scriver Andersen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-05-11";"14:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS 26.2.21";"Esben Scriver Andersen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Structural Microeconometrics. Perturbed utility and equilibrium models"".";"Esben Scriver Andersen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Structural Microeconometrics. Perturbed utility and equilibrium models"". Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21. ZOOM-link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/2757553329, kode: 1234. En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Mette Ejrnæs , Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Arnaud Dupuy, University of Luxembourg Lektor Ismir Mulalic CBS, DK Abstract This thesis consists of three independent chapters. Each chapter analyzes the equilibrium outcomes of the labor and housing market by describing the behavior of the participants in the markets by the perturbed utility model. This class of models allows for a more general substitution patterns as opposed to the mostly used model class in the literature, the additive random utility model. Substitution patterns is important, as wages and housing prices not only reflect the productivity of labor and the quality of the properties, but also reflect the availability of close substitutes. The first chapter Multidimensional matching and labor market complementarity is written in cooperation with Young Jun Lee. We propose an empirical framework for matching in a frictionless labor market, where workers and firms negotiate over wages and other contractual terms (e.g. whether to work part time or full time). The behavior of workers and firms is described by a class of static perturbed utility models in which alternatives may be complements or substitutes. We show that a unique equilibrium exists and how the equilibrium of the model is obtained. As a proof of concept, we estimate the model based on aggregated data for the Danish labor market and find that workers with different educational levels can be complements in the production, which the additive random utility model rules out. The second chapter A perturbed spatial equilibrium model proposes an empirical spatial equilibrium framework for the housing and labor markets, where households can only move and commute between locations at a cost. Household behavior is described by a static perturbed utility model, which implies that any forward-looking motive is ignored. The proposed static equilibrium model allow spatial substitution patterns of housing prices and wages to be analyzed, and due to the simplicity of the model it is possible to solve it for a large choice set of locations. As a proof of concept, the model is estimated on Danish data, where the households are assumed to choose their residential and work location among 92 municipalities. Based on the estimated model, a counterfactual analysis of an increase of 1 percent in the supply of housing in the capital municipality, Copenhagen, is conducted. As expected this shows analysis that the square meter prices and wages are most affected in Copenhagen and the nearby municipalities. Due to the higher supply of housing and labor the average square meter prices and wages decrease by 10.3 and 0.5 percent in Copenhagen. Moving is associated with large financial and none-financial costs. Hence, the location decision is inherently a dynamic decision, as the households take their future welfare into account when they making a decision. The third chapter A dynamic spatial equilibrium model for the housing and labor market shows that perturbed utility can be used to describe dynamic decision. Based on a dynamic perturbed utility model, the chapter then proposes a spatial equilibrium model similar to the model in chapter 2. As dynamic models are computationally costly to estimate, the proposed model focuses on the capital municipalities that constitutes of 23 municipalities. The counterfactual analysis shows that the average square meter prices and wages in Copenhagen decrease by 10.8 and 0.2 percent, when the supply of housing increases by 1 pct. The similar sizes of the counterfactual changes in the two chapter are partly due to the maintained assumption of static expectations with respect to square meter prices and wages in chapter 3. Initially this leads prices and wages to respond too strongly. Incorporating forward-looking expectations into the model is left for future research."
"Jan Eeckhout , Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF), Barcelona";"Department of Economics";"2022-05-18";"14:00";"2022-05-18";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Are Mangers Paid for Market Power? "". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Are Mangers Paid for Market Power?"" Abstract To answer the question whether managers are paid for market power, we propose a theory of executive compensation in an economy where firms have market power, and the market for managers is competitive. We identify two distinct channels that contribute to manager pay in the model: market power and firm size. Both increase the profitability of the firm, which makes managers more valuable as it increases their marginal product. Using data on executive compensation from Compustat, we quantitatively analyze how market power affects Manager Pay and how it changes over time. We attribute on average 45.8% of Manager Pay to market power, from 38.0% in 1994 to 48.8% in 2019. Over this period, market power accounts for 57.8% of growth. We also find there is a lot of heterogeneity within the distribution of managers. For the top managers, 80.3% of their pay in 2019 is due to market power. Top managers are hired disproportionately by firms with market power, and they get rewarded for it, increasingly so. Joint with Ranjie Bao and Jan de Loecker Read more about Jan Eeckhout Contact person: Morten Graugaard"
"Elie Tamer, Harvard University";"Department of Economics";"2022-05-20";"10:30";"2022-05-20";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Inference on Auctions with Weak Assumptions on Information"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Inference on Auctions with Weak Assumptions on Information"" Abstract Given a sample of bids from independent auctions, this paper examines the question of inference on auction objects (like valuation distributions, welfare measures, etc) under weak assumptions on information. We leverage the recent contributions of Bergemann and Morris [2013] in the robust mechanism design literature that exploit the link between Bayesian Correlated Equilibria and Bayesian Nash Equilibria in incomplete information games, to construct an econometrics framework that is computationally feasible and robust to assumptions about information. Checking whether a particular valuation distribution belongs to the identified set is as simple as determining whether a linear program (LP) is feasible. This is the key characteristic of our framework. A similar LP can be used to learn about various welfare measures and policy counterfactuals. For inference and to summarize statistical uncertainty, we propose novel finite sample methods using tail inequalities that are used to construct confidence sets on identified sets. Monte Carlo experiments show adequate finite sample properties. We illustrate our approach by applying our methods to a data set from search Ad auctions and to data from OCS auctions. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Ana Figueiredo, Erasmus School of Economics";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2022-05-20";"13:15";"2022-05-20";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The False Illusion of Wage Cyclicality"". ";"""The False Illusion of Wage Cyclicality"" Abstract We provide evidence that sorting dynamics create a false illusion of wage cyclicality. To separate wage flexibility from movements in match quality, we use administrative data from Portugal that allows to accurately distinguish between new hires and incumbent workers that switch occupation versus those that remain in the same occupation. If match quality is tied to a worker’s occupation, we are better able to isolate true wage flexibility by focusing on the latter. We find that the procyclical behaviour of wages is driven by occupation switchers. In contrast, among occupation non-switchers, wages show little cyclical variation for both incumbent workers and new hires. Read more about Ana Figueiredo Contact person: Antoine Bertheau"
"Alex Xi He fra University of Maryland";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-05-24";"13:15";"2022-05-24";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Eclipse of Rent-Sharing: The Effects of Managers' Business Education on Wages and the Labor Share in the US and Denmark"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Eclipse of Rent-Sharing: The Effects of Managers' Business Education on Wages and the Labor Share in the US and Denmark"" Abstract This paper provides evidence from the US and Denmark that managers with a business degree (“business managers”) reduce their employees' wages. Within five years of the appointment of a business manager, wages decline by 6% and the labor share by 5 percentage points in the US, and by 3% and 3 percentage points in Denmark. Firms appointing business managers are not on differential trends and do not enjoy higher output, investment, or employment growth thereafter. Using manager retirements and deaths and an IV strategy based on the diffusion of the practice of appointing business managers within industry, region and size quartile cells, we provide additional evidence that these are causal effects. We establish that the proximate cause of these (relative) wage effects are changes in rent-sharing practices following the appointment of business managers. Exploiting exogenous export demand shocks, we show that non-business managers share profits with their workers, whereas business managers do not. But consistent with our first set of results, these business managers show no greater ability to increase sales or profits in response to exporting opportunities. Finally, we use the influence of role models on college major choice to instrument for the decision to enroll in a business degree in Denmark and show that our estimates correspond to causal effects of practices and values acquired in business education - rather than the differential selection into business education of individuals unlikely to share rents with workers. Contact person: Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg"
"SODAS-Climate: Opening Event";"SODAS Climate";"2022-05-25";"13:30";"2022-05-25";"16:00";"CSS Building 35, room 35.0.12. Gammeltoftsgade 13, 1355 København K.";"";"What social data science for green transition? SODAS-Climate is a new, interdisciplinary research collaboration that uses techniques and methods from social data science to answer questions regarding the green transition. By embedding existing and emerging research, the initiative will act as a platform for exploring novel joint research endeavours - both within the University of Copenhagen and beyond. For this opening event, we have invited existing and future collaborators in academia and consultancy to help us delineate priorities for SODAS-Climate in the coming years. When: Wednesday May 25th from 13.30 – 16.00 Where: CSS Building 35, room 35.0.12. Gammeltoftsgade 13, 1355 København K. Program 13.30 – 13.40 Welcome and introduction to SODAS-Climate by Assoc. Prof. Anders Blok 13.40 – 14.00 Talk by Backscatter v. Jakob Carstensen, Partner & CEO Mapping climate activism on social media to engage physical communities 14.00 – 14.20 Talk by Mrs. Connie Hedegaard Leveraging new types of social knowledge for carbon reduction 14.20 – 14.30 Break 14.30 – 15.30 Keynote by Dr. Lorien Jasny Sources and samples: Two projects using Twitter data to study elite environmental engagement 15.30 – 16.00 Reception How to sign up Participate in person: To participate in person, please write an e-mail to lxs309@sodas.ku.dk. Seats are assigned on a first-come-first-serve basis. Watch remotely: No sign-up needed. Join online via Zoom"
"SODAS Data Discussion 10 June 2022";"SODAS";"2022-06-10";"11:00";"2022-06-10";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"Data Discussion with Yevgeniy Golovchenko, Frederik Hjorth & Cathrine Kjær, and Hjalmar Bang Carlsen & Tobias Gårdhus";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Yevgeniy Golovchenko, Department of Political Science and SODAS, University of Copenhagen (co-authored work with Jonas Skjold Raaschou-Pedersen, Kristina Aleksandrovna Pedersen and Anna Rogers) Title: Censorship on YouTube During Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Abstract: The war in Ukraine takes place both on the battle fields as well as the information space. A lot of attention has been given to “information warfare” in the form of production and distribution of propaganda and disinformation on social media. However, the struggle for “truth” takes also place in the form of information control – both in Russia as well as liberal democracies. Using data from YouTube, one of most popular social media in the world, we examine the effects of Russian censorship laws as well as YouTube’s own effort to curb Russian state-affiliated propaganda on commenting engagement. With the empirical results we hope to contribute to the ongoing debate within the broader public as well as censorship scholarship on the effectiveness of online bans. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenters: Frederik Hjorth and Cathrine Kjær, Department of Political Science and SODAS, University of Copenhagen. Title: Public Support for Wartime Communication Bans Abstract: On March 2nd, 2022, the European Commission banned Russian state-controlled media outlets RT and Sputnik for all EU operators with reference to the 'systematic disinformation over Russia's invasion of Ukraine'. Critics of the ban argued that by curbing free speech, the ban compromises foundational principles of liberal democracy. The ban and the ensuing debate reignite a perennial tension in liberal democracy: is it permissible to restrict communication in the name of national security and who should be the primary actors when it comes to decisions like these? In a pre-registered survey experiment on a representative sample of Danish citizens, we investigate levels and predictors of public support for bans of mass communication. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenters: Hjalmar Bang Carlsen and Tobias Gårdhus, SODAS and Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen. (co-authored work with Jonas Toubøl) Title: Mapping the mobilization in solidarity with Ukriainian refugees in Danish informal civil society Abstract: According to UNHRC approximately 5 million refugees have fled Ukraine between February 24 and April 17 2022. Governments and civil societies all over Europe stand in front of a major task in terms of mobilizing resources to address the refugees welfare needs. This effort is partly dependent upon the mobilization of informal civil society. In this research note we present preliminary findings from an ongoing research project on the online mobilization of informal civic action pertaining to the temporal, geographical and practice dimensions of the informal groups. We, furthermore, outline simple procedures for how to obtain data on online organized volunteering, aiming to enhance other civil society researchers’ access to studying the phenomenon. For those of you not able to make it in person, here is a zoom-link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64094257640"
"John Mondragon, SF Fed";"KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"2022-06-10";"15:00";"2022-06-10";"16:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Housing Demand and Remote Work"". KU - CBS Virtual Macroeconomics Seminar, organized within the CopenhagenMacro Network";"""Housing Demand and Remote Work"" Abstract What explains record U.S. house price growth since late 2019? We show that the shift to remote work explains over one half of the 23.8 percent national house price increase over this period. Using variation in remote work exposure across U.S. metropolitan areas we estimate that an additional percentage point of remote work causes a 0.93 percent increase in house prices after controlling for negative spillovers from migration. This cross-sectional estimate combined with the aggregate shift to remote work implies that remote work raised aggregate U.S. house prices by 15.1 percent. Using a model of remote work and location choice we argue that this estimate is a lower bound on the aggregate effect. Our results imply a fundamentals-based explanation for the recent increases in housing costs over speculation or financial factors, and that the evolution of remote work is likely to have large effects on the future path of house prices and inflation. Read more about John Mondragon Contact person: Patrick Moran"
"Jean-Edouard Colliard, HEC Paris";"FRU (Finance Research Unit)";"2022-06-14";"09:00";"2022-06-14";"10:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Algorithmic Pricing and Liquidity in Securities Markets"". Seminar arranged by FRU (Finance Research Unit)";"""Algorithmic Pricing and Liquidity in Securities Markets"" Abstract We run experiments in which machine-learning algorithms play a standard market-making game under adverse selection. We study how the outcome of these experiments differs from standard equilibrium predictions. We find that a monopolist market-maker charges a price lower than the standard monopoly price. In contrast, competing market-makers charge a price at a mark-up above the competitive price. We run comparative statics exercises that deliver new empirical predictions. In particular, the mark-up decreases in the amount of adverse selection. Beyond the case of market-making, our framework is a step towards developing novel predictions on the impact of algorithmic trading in financial markets. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Patrick Thöni forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-06-14";"11:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, CSS 26.2.21";"Patrick Thöni forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on Financial Transaction Taxes. Impact on Trading Volume, Market Composition and Liquidity"".";"Patrick Thöni forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Essays on Financial Transaction Taxes. Impact on Trading Volume, Market Composition and Liquidity."" Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21. Deltagelse pr. Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672, passcode: 1234 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Nick Vikander, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Antonio Guarino, University College LondonLektor Jean-Edouard Colliard, HEC, Paris Abstract Financial Markets have undoubtedly played a crucial role in the economic development and technological growth the world has experienced over the last century. The availability of liquid markets greatly facilitates the opportunities of raising capital and risksharing, allowing the financing of large-scale real enterprises. Additionally, it enables savers to increase their returns while diversifying their risk. On the other hand, liquid markets also allow for speculative trading, which ultimately can lead to a misallocation of resources. This fundamental trade-off is what lies at the core of the original idea of a financial transaction tax (FTT). While proponents of FTTs highlight their potential to curb speculation driven by short term incentives, opponents argue that it would harm market quality by decreasing overall liquidity, interfering with price discovery and raising the cost of capital. This thesis furthers the existing body of work on this key tension surrounding FTTs from a financial microstructure perspective. By means of both theoretical and empirical analysis, the three self-contained chapters presented in this dissertation investigate the impact of FTTs on trading volume and migration, trader composition and ultimately market quality. In the first chapter, ""On the Non-Homogeneous Effect of Financial Transaction Taxes"", I investigate the introduction of a linear tax in the classic setting presented in Kyle (1985, ""Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading."" Econometrica 53: 1315–1335). Analysis of the benchmark model confirm negative effects of taxation on market liquidity found by most of the previous literature. Importantly, I also find that taxation, through the creation of a no-trade zone, forces the market maker toprice the asset non-linearly with respect to traded quantities. This non-linearity, in turn, leads to heterogeneity’s in the impact of the FTT across different trading sizes. While for large trades taxation only leads to increased spreads and prices, small tradesalso experience a decrease in market depth and trading aggressiveness compared to a market without taxation. The second chapter, ""Financial Transaction Taxes and Trading Migration"", somewhat departs from the approach and issues generally discussed in the existing theoretical literature. This paper aims at characterizing trading migration inducedby taxation, and its effects on trader composition and market quality. I investigate the introduction of taxation in a multi-market setting, where traders are allowed to trade in stocks and the respective option markets. Equilibrium analysis in this settingprovides the following intuitions. First, taxation of equity and derivatives, conditional on the same tax rate and function being applied to both markets, will lead to asymmetric effects due to the leveraged nature of derivatives. Second, taxation can resultin positive effects on liquidity if trading migration is allowed. This result arises due to an alleviation of the adverse selection problem, caused by migration of informed traders to the untaxed market. If effects of taxation on market makers are taken intoconsideration, the impact on liquidity becomes ambiguous. Specifically, increased cost of providing liquidity due to taxation will lead to negative effects on liquidity due to less competition among market makers. Therefore, the combined effect of taxation inthis setting depends on the relative magnitude of these two forces. Finally, in the third and last chapter, ""Multi-Market Effects of Financial Transaction Taxes: Evidence from Italy, France and Spain"" (coauthored with Vincent Wolff), we empirically explore some of the predictions made in the previous chapters. We leverage quasi-random experiments in France, Italy and Spain to investigate the introduction of FTTs across equity, derivative and OTC markets. We find striking differences in the effect of taxation on volume and liquidity across countries, whichcan largely be attributed to differences in tax design. Italy experienced trading migration across regulated and OTC equity markets as well as significant negative effects on aggregate liquidity. We rationalize the latter through increased informed trading migrated from OTC markets as well as increased costs of providing liquidity due to the specific tax design implemented in Italy. In France and Spain we do not find evidence of trading migration across regulated and non-regulated equity markets. In turn, regulated equity markets experienced significant drops in trading volume, accompanied by very mild effects on aggregate liquidity. Additionally, we do not find evidence of trading migration across equity and regulated derivative market. We therefore reject the idea that payoffs of taxed assets are replicated through standardized derivative products. "
"SODAS Lecture with Claes de Vreese";"SODAS";"2022-06-17";"11:00";"2022-06-17";"12:30";"CSS, SODAS conference room 1.2.26 ";"Automated democracy: how digital technologies and AI are challenging democracy";"Titel: Automated democracy: how digital technologies and AI are challenging democracy Abstract: Digital technologies, automation, and AI are changing democratic processes and challenging (public) institutions. In this SODAS lecture, Claes de Vreese will provide an overview of these challenges and offer results from ongoing research on the implications of these changes. Bio: Claes de Vreese is professor of political communication and currently Distinguished University professor of AI and society with a special emphasis on media and democracy at the University of Amsterdam. He is also founding director of the Centre for Digital Democracy at the University of Southern Denmark SDU. T: @claesdevreese This spring, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Philosophy of the Predicted Human"". The Predicted Human Being human in 2022 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. Predicting and manipulating the future behavior of human beings is nothing new. Most of the quantitative social sciences focus on this topic in a general sense. There are entire subfields of statistics dedicated to understanding what can be predicted and what cannot. Yet the current situation is different. Computers’ ability to analyze text and images has been revolutionized by the availability of vast datasets and new machine learning techniques. We are currently experiencing a similar shift in terms of how algorithms can predict (and manipulate) human behavior. Human beings can be algorithmically shaped, we can be hacked. The ambition with this semester’s SODAS Lectures is to present and discuss different perspectives on human prediction. Inviting a list of distinguished scholars and speakers whose expertise ranges from traditional social sciences, over machine learning and data science to philosophy and STS, we hope to delve into some of the principles and dynamics which govern our ability to predict and control both individual and collective human behaviors. Venue: CSS, Sodas conference room 1.2.26"
"""CANCELLED"" - Leonardo Bursztyn, University of Chicago ";"Department of Economics";"2022-06-22";"14:00";"2022-06-22";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Justifying Dissent"". AE seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Justifying Dissent"" Abstract Dissent plays an important role in any society, but dissenters are often silenced through social sanctions. Beyond their persuasive effects, rationales providing arguments supporting dissenters’ causes can increase the public expression of dissent by providing a “social cover” for voicing otherwise stigmatized positions. Motivated by a simple theoretical framework, we experimentally show that liberals are more willing to post a Tweet opposing the movement to defund the police, are seen as less prejudiced, and face lower social sanctions when their Tweet implies they had first read scientific evidence supporting their position. Analogous experiments with conservatives demonstrate that the same mechanisms facilitate anti-immigrant expression. Our findings highlight both the power of rationales and their limitations in enabling dissent and shed light on phenomena such as social movements, political correctness, propaganda, and anti-minority behavior Read more about Leonardo Bursztyn Contact person: Casper Worm Hansen"
"Helge Zille forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-06-23";"14:00";"";"";"";"Helge Zille forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""The Political Economy of Interstate Conflicts and Industrial Development""";"Helge Zille forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""The Political Economy of Interstate Conflicts and Industrial Development"". Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21. Deltagelse pr. Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672, passcode: 1234 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Tony Addison, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Carol Newman, Trinity College, DublinAssociate Professor Brian McCaid, Wilfred Laurier University, Canada. Abstract This PhD thesis consists of three self-contained chapters within the fields of international and development economics. Chapter 1: The Role of Labor Composition and Quality in Determining the Productivity-Wage Gap: Evidence from Industrial Zones in Myanmar – with John Rand, Finn Tarp, and Neda Trifković The first chapter uses a large nationally representative survey of private manufacturing enterprises to estimate productivity and wage gains associated with industrial zones in Myanmar. Moreover, we investigate the contribution of the industrial zones in facilitating agglomeration and human capital returns to firms and workers. Our results show that being located in an industrial zone is associated with higher value added per worker, but this is not entirely reflected in worker wages. Productivity gains related to agglomeration and hiring of trained workers are larger in industrial zones than elsewhere. While increasing the share of women workers can lead to short-term productivity losses, our estimates show that worker wages improve in firms with a higher share of women workers. Our results highlight the role of labor force quality and composition in affecting the firm performance, but also illustrate that the benefits from industrial zones extend beyond agglomeration, bringing out the advantages of planned industrial zones as opposed to relying on innate industrial clustering. Chapter 2: Brothers in Arms, Brothers in Trade? Measuring the Effect of Violent Conflicts on Trade with Third-Party Countries The second chapter contributes to the old and ongoing discussion about the relationship between violent conflicts and international trade. Empirical research in the 1990s and early 2000s has established that violent interstate conflicts harm international trade. While most of this literature dates back at least 10 to 20 years, the effect of interstate conflicts on trade with third-party countries has been neglected for most of the time in the literature. In this chapter, I attempt to fill this gap. A period of 46 years is covered in the analysis, using more than 500 thousand dyad-year observations. The third-party country dimension is derived from a triadic data set, which covers all possible country-triad combinations for the studied period. I find that violent interstate conflicts reduce trade with third-party countries, and that they cause a shift in trade towards allied countries and away from the enemy’s allies. Countries increase imports from members of the same security alliance by between 1 and 4 percent, and trade more with countries that have the same enemies by between 5 and 7 percent. They reduce trade with the formal allies of their enemies by between 9 and 14 percent. This negative trade shifting effect is further amplified by the size of the respective conflict country. This chapter contributes to the literature on conflict and trade in two ways: First, by adding to the scarce literature introducing a third-country dimension into standard gravity models and into the literature on conflict and trade. And second, by showing the importance of a spatially dynamic perspective on interstate conflicts. Chapter 3: The Ownership of Pioneer Firms: The Role of State-Owned and Multinational Enterprises in Industrial Diversification in Vietnam – with Bjørn Bo Sørensen, Henrik Hansen, and John Rand In the third chapter, we study the ownership of pioneer firms that establish market activities in provinces where such activities did not previously exist. Using the Vietnamese Enterprise Survey (2001-2017), which allows us to track close to one million formal firms over time, we explore whether Vietnam’s remarkable industrial diversification during the past two decades was driven by state-owned, multinational, or domestic and privately owned enterprises (SOEs, MNEs, or PDEs). We document significantly higher ownership-specific pioneering frequencies in SOEs and MNEs compared to PDEs, also after controlling for a broad spectrum of observable characteristics. Using a simple conceptual framework, we attribute these differences to variations in access to capital, knowledge of firm- and industry productivity, and firm-specific strategies and policy objectives. Second, we investigate the dynamic employment effects in industries pioneered by different firms. We find a large employment premium in MNE-pioneered industries. The premium is driven entirely by employment in pioneering MNEs and other MNEs following the pioneer in subsequent years. In contrast, there is no employment premium in industries pioneered by SOEs relative to PDEs. Pioneering SOEs are systematically larger than pioneering PDEs, but this direct employment effect is counterbalanced by less employment in PDEs and MNEs in SOE-pioneered industries in the long run."
"Ermias Gebru Weldesenbet forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-07-29";"13:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, CSS 26.2.21";"";"Ermias Gebru Weldesenbet forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Empirical Essays on the Long-term Outcomes of Childhood Experiences: Poverty, Weather Shock, and Migration"" Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21 kl. 13:00.For at overvære forsvaret pr. zoom, se dette link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672, passcode: 1234. En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Professor Finn Tarp, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Carol Newman, Trinity College London Professor Remco Oostendorp, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Abstract The Ph.D. thesis contains three self-contained chapters, focusing on the long-term outcomes of different childhood experiences. Because children are vulnerable to early life experiences, whether they have a good or bad start has long-term implications on their life. For that reason, understanding childhood conditions that affect later life outcomes is of paramount importance to policymaking. While there is a large body of literature on developed countries, the empirical investigation of early life conditions for developing countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa, has been constrained mainly due to the lack of longitudinal data following children for a long time. The thesis seeks to address this lacuna in African research by exploring three diverse childhood conditions affecting outcomes in adulthood. Chapter 1, “Intergenerational Poverty Transmission in Tanzania: The role of parental resources”, explores the extent of intergenerational poverty as well as one of the mechanisms of poverty transmission in Tanzania using a long-running household panel data. I find that the risk of falling into poverty remained low, while the probability of escaping from poverty increased between childhood and adulthood. In adulthood, children from poor families have a poverty risk (0.38) three times higher than those from non-poor family backgrounds (0.13). Investigating the role of parental resources in the intergenerational transmission of poverty, I find that parental financial resource in childhood is strongly associated with an individual’s poverty risk in early adulthood. The results further indicate that human capital investment in children mediates some of the effects of childhood parental resources on economic status in adulthood. The results imply that interventions supporting low-income families build their children’s human capital are essential to break the intergenerational cycle of poverty.Chapter 2, “The Long-Term Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Weather Shocks: Evidence from Tanzania”, examines whether early-life exposure to rainfall shocks has a long-term impact on individuals' health, education, and socioeconomic status in rural Tanzania, where livelihoods heavily depend on rain-fed agriculture. I use a unique panel of data from a Kagera Health and Development Survey (KHDS) in which children were followed from childhood (1991) to adulthood (2010), together with historical rainfall data. I find that rainfall in the birth year affects the education and socioeconomic statuses of children in adulthood. A 15 percent increase in rainfall in one's birth year and birth village (relative to average village rainfall) leads children to have 0.21 more years of schooling and live in a household in 2010 that scores 0.19 higher on an asset index. I then explore the relationship between early-life rainfall and childhood nutritional status to identify early-life rainfall's initial effect. Higher birth-year rainfall leads to significant decreases in height and weight deficits in children. A 15 percent increase in rainfall in one's birth year and birth village (relative to average village rainfall) improves the height-for-age z score by 0.20 and weight-for-age z score by 0.26. When taken together, the results point to the importance of early childhood nutrition intervention.Chapter 3, “Emigration and education: the schooling of the left behind in Nigeria” (joint with Biniam Bedasso and Nonso Obikili), investigates the impact of family migration on left-behind children educational attainment using household survey data from Nigeria. Because the migration status of households is endogenous, we use the proportion of migrants in a local district and historical exposure to foreigners as proxied by distance to foreign missionary station in 1921 as instruments for migration of household members. We find that being in a migrant household increases the probability of completing secondary school and attending some postsecondary education. We also find that belonging to a migrant household increases the probability of own future migration. We further explore channels through which the migration of family members affects education. We provide tentative evidence suggesting that anticipation of own future migration may be behind increased educational attainment."
"Volha Lazuka, SDU:""Household and individual economic responses to different health shocks""";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen";"2022-08-16";"11:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, CSS 26.2.21";"Department Seminar";"AbstractThis study provides new evidence regarding the extent to which medical care mitigates the economic consequences of various health shocks. To obtain causal effects, I focus on the role of medical scientific discoveries and leverage the longitudinal dimension of unique administrative data on adults in Sweden, their partners, and their working-age children. The results indicate that medical innovations strongly mitigate the negative economic consequences of a health shock, including subsequent losses for the individual and close relatives, and income inequalities within these groups. Such mitigating effects are highly heterogeneous across diseases that cause health shocks. These results support the view that the economic repercussions of health shocks have been overlooked, and there is a lack of focus on the efficiency of medical care for specific health conditions."
"Hans Henrik Sievertsen, University of Bristol:""Playing the system: address manipulation and access to education""";"Department of Economics, UCPH";"2022-08-17";"12:00";"";"";"Department of Economics, UCPH, CSS 26.2.21";"Department Seminar";"Abstract Combining Danish survey data and administrative records we provide evidence of strategic address changes among high school applicants. We exploit policies variation and study mobility patterns to verify that these moves are likely to be driven by incentives to increase chances for admission to preferred high schools, and unlikely to be driven by other motives. Finally, we investigate, both theoretically and empirically, how this behavior affects efficiency and increases inequality in school choice mechanisms"
"PhD Defense on &#8220;Planetary Social and Behavioral Data Science&#8221;";"University of Copenhagen & SODAS";"2022-08-19";"15:00";"";"";": University of Copenhagen, building 35, auditorium 35.01.06, Gammeltoftsgade 13, 1353 Copenhagen K. ";"SODAS PhD student Kelton Ray Minor will defend his dissertation “Planetary Social and Behavioral Data Science” on Friday, 19th August at 3pm CET. ";"SODAS PhD student Kelton Ray Minor will defend his dissertation “Planetary Social and Behavioral Data Science” on Friday, 19th August at 3pm CET. Abstract: Climate change and other anthropogenic disruptions to Earth’s natural systems are increasing the frequency and intensity of many environmental stressors that span across county, state and country borders, posing a planetary adaptive challenge for society. The sheer spatial and temporal extent of many regionally intensifying stressors – including Arctic amplification, nighttime warming, heatwaves and extreme precipitation events – demand new approaches for monitoring their complex human impacts and responses at scale. Responding to this challenge, this articles-based dissertation explores how highly resolved psychosocial, environmental and digital-trace data – from national surveys, personal sensing, weather stations, satellites, social media and smartphones – can help to understand and inform human adjustment to complex environmental stressors in a changing world. Place: University of Copenhagen, building 35, auditorium 35.01.06, Gammeltoftsgade 13, 1353 Copenhagen K. For those who are not able to be there in person, you can attend remotely via Zoom (6am PT, 7am MT, 9am ET, 14:00 GMT, 15:00 CET)"
"Health Economics Workshop";"";"2022-08-29";"09:00";"2022-08-30";"17:00";"University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, building 26, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"We bring together researchers in health economics who share an interest in health and life expectancy inequalities, heterogeneous benefits from health innovations and doctor/patient interaction.";"2nd Workshop on Behavioral responses to health innovations and the consequences for socioeconomic outcomes Researchers and the industry produce new knowledge, treatments, and technologies that constantly improve population health. However, the benefits of health innovations are unequally distributed. New health technologies spread at a different pace across groups in society, potentially allowing the high-educated groups to be more productive, have longer working lives, and invest more to finance an extended period of healthy retirement. This workshop will bring together researchers in health economics who share an interest in these topics, including health and life expectancy inequalities, heterogeneous benefits from health innovations and doctor/patient interaction. Keynote speakers Kathleen McGarry, UCLA Petra Persson, Stanford Programme Programme Scientific committee and local organizers Mette Gørtz and Torben Heien Nielsen, University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics and Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality Venue The conference will be held at the City Campus (known as CSS) of the University of Copenhagen in the heart of Copenhagen: 2nd and 3rd floor Building 26 Department of Economics, University of CopenhagenØster Farigmagsgade 5DK-1353 Copenhagen Please note that it can be difficult to find your way around at our campus, so we strongly recommend that you enter the campus area via the entrance at: Gammeltoftsgade 17-19 DK-1353 CopenhagenThe entrance is located right next to Building 26, where the conference takes place. Conference dinner The conference dinner takes place August 29 at 18:00 at Chambre at Jernbanegade 4DK-1608 Copenhagen Transport in Copenhagen Our campus is located in walking distance from Nørreport station. From the airport you can take the train or metro directly to Nørreport station. You can buy either single tickets or perhaps a “Small city pass” that is valid for 24 hours to 5 days in tickets automats at all stations. "
"Renato Faccini, Danmarks Nationalbank";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-09-05";"14:15";"2022-09-05";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Job Mobility and Inflation"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Job Mobility and Inflation"" Abstract The low rate of inflation observed in the U.S. over the past decade is hard to reconcile with traditional measures of labor market slack. We develop a theory-based indicator of interfirm competition that can explain the missing inflation. Key to this result is a drop in the rate of on-the-job search, which lowers the intensity of inter.rm wage competition to retain or hire workers. The on-the-job search rate can be measured directly from aggregate labor-market flows and its recent drop is corroborated by micro data. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Dynamic Effects of Public Expenditure";"";"2022-09-07";"08:45";"";"13:55";"Building 1, Ground Floor, Room 10 (CSS 1.0.10). Øster Farimagsgade 5";"Arranged by Bertel Schjerning";"How to find us 08.45 - 09.00 Coffee and croissants 09.00 - 09.30 Paul Bingley (VIVE): Elasticity of taxable (labor) income: 40 years with excess bunching? 09.30 - 10.00 Maria Juul Hansen (UCPH) and Christian Langholz Carstensen (UCPH): Adjusting the education menu: Conditioning admission rates on labor market performance 10.00 - 10.30 Michael Svarer (AU): Consumption and public sector activities – what is the trade-off? 10.30 - 10.50 Coffee Break 10.50 - 11.20 Maria Juul Hansen and Christian Langholz Carstensen: Settling on Lynetteholm: Effects on house prices, moving patterns and welfare 11.20 - 11.40 Gauthier Lanot (Umeå University): Indirect inference for the elasticity of taxable income 11.40 - 12.00 Kurt Houlberg (VIVE): Dynamic effects of public spending in a multilevel Governance perspective 12.00 - 12.45 Lunch 12.45 - 13.15 Nicolai Kristensen (VIVE): Fiscal balance returns to schooling and the surrogate index in DCDP models 13.15 - 13.35 Mathilde Almlund (VIVE): Assessing the welfare effects of public expenditures 13.35 - 13.55 Bertel Schjerning (UCPH) and Fedor Iskhakov (ANU): A dynamic game of marriage, divorce, fertility, labor supply and childcare 18.00 - 20.15 Dinner at Scarpetta (Rantzausgade 7, 2200 Copenhagen N)"
"Lunch Talk: Digital Social Science Perspectives on the War in Ukraine ";"Faculty of Social Sciences ";"2022-09-09";"12:00";"2022-09-09";"13:00";"4.1.02";"Three SODAS researchers will be presenting perspectives on the war in Ukraine at the Lunch Talk held on the 9th September ";"Since Spring 2022 the Faculty of Social Science have hosted Lunch Talks, where researchers from the Faculty of Social Sciences have offered their analyses and perspectives on the war in Ukraine in a series of Friday Lunch Talks. At the talk on the 9th September three SODAS researchers will offer their perspectives on the war along with colleagues from the Faculty The following researchers will share their research and perspectives: Frederik Hjorth (SODAS and Department of Political Science): Public Support for Wartime Communication Bans Hjalmar Bang Carlsen (SODAS and Department of Sociology): Mapping the mobilisation in solidarity with Ukrainian refugees in Danish informal civil society Jakob Dreyer (Department of Political Science): The threat-sacrifice paradox: Willingness to sacrifice in the face of a war and climate polycrisis. Myunghee Lee (NIAS and Department of Political Science): China on the Ukraine War: Analysing China's Narrative Toward the War Yevgeniy Golovchenko (SODAS and Department of Political Science): Censorship on YouTube During Russia's Invasion of Ukraine "
"Beatriz Gonzales, Banco de España		";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-09-12";"14:15";"2022-09-12";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Firm Heterogeneity, Capital Misallocation and Optimal Monetary Policy"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Firm Heterogeneity, Capital Misallocation and Optimal Monetary Policy"" Abstract We analyze monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions. Firms differ in their productivity and net worth and face collateral constraints that cause capital misallocation. TFP endogenously depends on the time-varying distribution of firms. A monetary expansion increases the investment of constrained firms with a high marginal revenue product of capital (MRPK) relatively more than that of low-MRPK ones, crowding out the latter and increasing TFP. We provide empirical evidence based on Spanish granular data supporting this mechanism. This has important implications for optimal monetary policy design. First, a central bank without pre-commitments engineers an unexpected monetary expansion to increase TFP in the medium run. Second, the divine coincidence holds after a demand shock. Third, if nominal rates are constrained by the zero lower bound, the optimal policy prescribes that rates should remain low for much longer than under complete markets. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl "
"SODAS Data Discussion 16 September 2022";"SODAS";"2022-09-16";"11:00";"2022-09-16";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"Data Discussion with Martin Lund Trinhammer and Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen, Martin Benedikt Busch, Helene Willadsen & Ingo Zettler";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Martin Lund Trinhammer, Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen (co-authored work with A.C. Holst Merrild, J.F. Lotz and G. Makransky) Title: Predicting crime during or after psychiatric care: Evaluating machine learning for risk assessment using the Danish patient registries Abstract: Structural changes in psychiatric systems have altered treatment opportunities for patients in need of mental healthcare. These changes are possibly associated with an increase in post-discharge crime, reported in the increase of forensic psychiatric populations. As current risk-assessment tools are time-consuming to administer and offer limited accuracy, this study aims to develop a predictive model designed to identify psychiatric patients at risk of committing crime leading to a future forensic psychiatric treatment course.We utilized the longitudinal quality of the Danish patient registries, identifying the 45.720 adult patients who had contact with the psychiatric system in 2014, of which 474 committed crime leading to a forensic psychiatric treatment course after discharge. Four machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost and LightGBM) were applied over a range of sociodemographic, judicial, and psychiatric variables.This study achieves a F1-macro score of 76%, with precision = 57% and recall = 47% reported by the LightGBM algorithm. Our model was therefore able to identify 47% of future forensic psychiatric patients, while making correct predictions in 57% of cases. The study demonstrates how a clinically useful initial risk-assessment can be achieved using machine learning on data from patient registries. The proposed approach offers the opportunity to flag potential future forensic psychiatric patients, while in contact with the general psychiatric system, hereby allowing early intervention initiatives to be activated. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenters: Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen, Martin Benedikt Busch, Helene Willadsen and Ingo Zettler, Department of Economics, Department of Psychology and SODAS, University of Copenhagen. Title: Network knowledge and cooperation Abstract: The ability to recognize cooperators is necessary for sustaining the high levels of cooperation characteristic of human societies. A large body of literature, using laboratory experiments, has explored the role of reputation by unveiling individuals’ previous behavior. These experiments show that individuals with a cooperative reputation are often chosen as partners in settings that allow cooperation. Yet, existing literature has not comprehensively answered how people select cooperative partners when lab-based reputation is unavailable. Using three data inputs, we wish to test the hypothesis that network knowledge increases the ability to choose cooperative partners. First, we use administrative data from the University of Copenhagen alongside Statistics Denmark. Second, we use a survey to elicit the network of at least two TA classes from different study programs. Third, we conduct a Prisoner’s Dilemma experiment with partner choice to investigate cooperativeness and the ability to choose cooperating partners. In this data discussion, we will primarily present our lab experiment."
"Pontus Rendahl, Copenhagen Business School	";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-09-19";"14:15";"2022-09-19";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""The Risk-Premium Channel of Uncertainty: Implications for Unemployment and Inflation"" Abstract This paper studies the role of macroeconomic uncertainty in a search-and-matching framework with risk-averse households. Heightened uncertainty about future productivity reduces current economic activity even in the absence of nominal rigidities. A risk-premium mechanism accounts for this result. As future asset prices become more volatile and covary more positively with aggregate consumption, the risk premium rises in the present. The associated downward pressure on current asset values lowers firm entry, making it harder for workers to find jobs and reduces supply. With nominal rigidities the recession is exacerbated, as a more uncertain future reinforces households’ precautionary behavior, which causes demand to contract. Counterfactual analyses using a calibrated model imply that unemployment would rise by less than half as much absent the risk-premium channel. The presence of this mechanism implies that uncertainty shocks are less deflationary than regular demand shocks, nor can they be fully neutralized by monetary policy. Contact Jeppe Druedahl "
"Ingrid Hägele, Ludwig-Maximilians University of Munich";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-09-20";"13:15";"2022-09-20";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Broken Rung: Gender and the Leadership Gap"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Broken Rung: Gender and the Leadership Gap"" Abstract Women are vastly underrepresented in leadership positions, but little is known about when and why gender gaps in career progression first emerge in the leadership hierarchy. I collect new data from a large multinational firm that combines detailed personnel records with the universe of internal application and job vacancies. By constructing a granular measure of job hierarchy, I document that women at lower hierarchy levels are 29% less likely to apply for promotions. No such gaps exist among employees who already hold leadership positions, indicating the presence of a broken rung rather than a glass ceiling. Both realized application patterns and large-scale surveys at the firm reveal that taking on leadership of a team is less appealing to women than men at lower hierarchy levels. This difference is large and not explained by a range of other factors, such as family status, risk preferences, or confidence. These findings suggest that the current architecture of leadership positions is an impediment to equal representation. Contact person: Daphné Jocelyne Skandalis"
"EDGE Jamboree 2022";"";"2022-09-22";"09:00";"2022-09-23";"";"Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, CSS 26.2.21";"Once a year, EDGE organizes a joint conference, the Jamboree, at which doctoral students and faculty members of the EDGE institutions participate.";"Once a year, EDGE organizes a joint conference, the Jamboree, at which doctoral students and faculty members of the EDGE institutions participate. The Jamboree is a platform where the more advanced students present their research. Furthermore, the Jamboree offers doctoral students the possibility to acquire more information about the partner universities, or to refresh the contacts made at their host universities. The executive committee has its regular annual meeting at the Jamboree. Programme Thursday September 22 9:00 – 9:10 Welcome 9:10 – 10:50 Session 1 (chair: Jakob Munch)Tacye Hong (Cambridge), The Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Exporters and Multinational FirmsDiscussant: Lena Specht (Dublin)Kenza Elass (Marseille), What do women want in a job? Gender-biased preferences and the reservation wage gapDiscussant: Adrian Chung (Cambridge) 10:50 – 11:10 Coffee break 11:10 – 12:50 Session 2 (chair: Weilong Zhang)Lavinia Kinne (Munich), Good or Bad News First? The Effect of Feedback Order on Motivation and PerformanceDiscussant: Goonj Mohan (Bocconi)Lucie Martin (Dublin), The Intra-Household Distribution of Administrative Tasks: Time-Use, Responsibilities, and Experienced Well-BeingDiscussant: Suzanna Khalifa (Marseilles) 12:50 – 14:10 Lunch 14:10 – 15:50 Session 3 (chair: Ivan Pastine)Edith Zink (Copenhagen), Democratization and Decentralization – Sub-national dynamics after the Arab Uprisings in TunisiaDiscussant: Jean-Victor Alipour (Munich)Giovanni Morzenti (Bocconi), Antitrust Policy and InnovationDiscussant: Tacye Hong (Cambridge) 15:50 – 16:10 Coffee break 16:10 – 17:50 Session 4 (chair: Jakob B. A. Sørensen)Lena Specht (Dublin), International trade effects of student migrationDiscussant: Lavinia Kinne (Munich)Lauge Truels Larsen (Copenhagen), Tax Enforcement in a Globalized Economy: The Compliance Effect of Automatic Information ExchangeDiscussant: Giovanni Morzenti (Bocconi) 19:00 – Dinner at Café Stadion, Nørre Allé 27, 2200 København N Friday September 23 9:00 – 10:40 Session 5 (chair: Matthias Lang)Suzanna Khalifa (Marseilles), Female Genital Cutting and Bride-PriceDiscussant: Edith Zink (Copenhagen)Adrian Chung (Cambridge), Multidimensional Screening in College Admissions: Should Top Colleges Admit Students Through A Lottery?Discussant: Lucie Martin (Dublin) 10:40 – 11:00 Coffee break 11:00 – 12:40 Session 6 (chair: Lorenzo Rotunno)Goonj Mohan (Bocconi), The Data Economy and Polarization on Social MediaDiscussant: Lauge Truels Larsen (Copenhagen)Jean-Victor Alipour (Munich), No Surprises, Please: Voting Costs and Electoral TurnoutDiscussant: Kenza Elass (Marseilles) 12:40 – 14:00 Lunch 15:30 Copenhagen Canal Tour EDGE is short for European Doctoral Group in Economics. It is a network with the purpose of promoting the exchange of doctoral students to to support them in conducting economic research at the highest international level and to get a broad perspective on economic policy issues. EDGE organize an annual conference, the Jamboree, to be nheld at partner institutions. And this year we at UCPH have the honor to hos the Jamboree."
"Ida Lykke Kristiansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-forsvar";"";"2022-09-30";"15:00";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5";"Ida Lykke Kristiansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-forsvar: ""Impacts of Childhood Circumstances and Physician Matches on Health and Human Capital Formation"". ";"Ida Lykke Kristensen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling: ""Impacts of Childhood Circumstances and Physician Matches on Health and Human Capital Formation"". Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21 . Deltagelse pr. Zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672, passcode: 1234. Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Kasper Worm Hansen, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand)Professor Nabinata Datta Gupta, Aarhus UniversitetProfessor Emilia Simeonova, Johns Hopkins University Abstract This dissertation contains three self-contained chapters. The three chapters evolve around two large and closely related topics 1) skill formation and 2) socio-economic inequalities. The chapters have one theory in common: The family we grow up in and the experiences we have during childhood affect us throughout life. In the first chapter, I study the effect of experiencing a severe, yet common, parental health event during childhood. When a close family member dies or gets severely ill it can impact many aspects of life, which is especially true for a child experiencing a parent's adverse health event. Severe parental health events are not randomly assigned in the population. I, therefore, use two different econometric methods to study the causal impact of these events. I show that children who experience that a parent dies or gets severely ill, have a higher use of therapy and anti-depressant medication. The effect appears immediately and persists into early adulthood. In addition, I find that the children do worse in terms of educational outcomes, the children achieve lower test scores and have lower school enrollment rates. The lower school enrollment rate persists and translates into a lower educational attainment in early adulthood. The result highlights that children are particular sensitive in the transition between different parts of the school system. The second chapter is written together with Sophie Yanying Sheng. In this chapter we ask, can primary care physicians from families with low socio-economic status (SES) reduce the socio-economic gradient in health? We find that when low-SES patients are allocated to a physician with a similar family background, their health is improved. The health of high-SES patients is unaffected by their physician's family background. We find that SES concordance between physician and patient reduces a substantial part of the SES gradient in mortality. This effect is mainly driven by a large reduction in the SES gradient in cardiovascular mortality. To investigate how SES concordance reduces patient mortality, we study patients' health behavior and treatments in the primary care setting. Low-SES patients with low-SES physicians receive more care at the intensive margin; make more office visits per year, receive more services per visit, and get more medical services from medical specialists. SES concordance increases detection of chronic conditions and adherence to treatment for patients with pre-existing conditions.The third and final chapter is written together with Mikkel Aagaard Houmark, Cecilie Marie Løchte Jørgensen, and Miriam Gensowski. In this chapter, we study how children's socio-emotional skills and well-being in adolescence are affected by an increase in the duration of parental care during infancy. We exploit a reform from 2002 that extended paid parental leave and effectively delayed children's entry into formal out-of-home care. We show that longer leave increases adolescent well-being, conscientiousness, and emotional stability, and reduces school absenteeism measured around age 14. The effects are strongest for children of mothers who would have taken short leave in absence of the reform. The result highlights that time spent with a parent is particularly productive during very early childhood."
"Martin Holm, University of Oslo";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-10-03";"14:15";"2022-10-03";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Asset-Price Redistribution"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Asset-Price Redistribution"" Abstract Over the last several decades, there has been a large increase in asset valuations across many asset classes. These rising valuations had important effects on the distribution of wealth. However, little is known regarding their effect on the distribution of welfare. To make progress on this question, we derive a sufficient statistic for the (money metric) welfare effect of a change in asset valuations, which depends on the present value of an individual’s net asset sales: rising asset prices benefit prospective sellers and harm prospective buyers. We estimate this quantity using panel microdata covering the universe of financial transactions in Norway from 1994 to 2015. We find that rising asset valuations had large redistributive effects: they redistributed welfare from the young towards the old and from the poor towards the wealthy. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl "
"Laura Pilossoph, Duke University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-10-05";"13:15";"2022-10-05";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Gender Differences in Job Search Behavior and the Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the Field and the Lab"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Gender Differences in Job Search Behavior and the Gender Earnings Gap: Evidence from the Field and the Lab"" Abstract This paper investigates gender differences in the job search process, both in the field and lab. First, we collect rich information on job offers and acceptances from undergraduates of Boston University’s Questrom School of Business. We document two novel empirical facts: (1) there is a clear gender difference in the timing of job offer acceptance, with women accepting jobs substantially earlier than men, and (2) the gender earnings gap in accepted offers narrows in favor of women over the course of the job search period. To rationalize these patterns, we develop a job search model that incorporates gender differences in risk aversion and overoptimism about prospective offers. We validate the model assumptions and predictions using the survey data, and present empirical evidence that the job search patterns in the field can be partly explained by greater risk aversion displayed by women and the higher levels of overoptimism (and slower belief updating) displayed by men. Next, we replicate the findings from the field in a specially-designed laboratory experiment that features sequential job search, and provide direct evidence on the purported mechanisms. Our findings highlight the importance of risk preferences and beliefs for gender differences in job-finding behavior, and consequently, early career wage gaps among the highly-skilled. Joint with Patricia Cortes, Jessica Pan, and Basit Zafar Contact person: Daphné Jocelyne Skandalis"
"SODAS Data Discussion 7 October 2022";"SODAS";"2022-10-07";"11:00";"2022-10-07";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"Data Discussion with Kristian Bernt Karlson and Anders Grundtvig";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Kristian Bernt Karlson, Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen Title: Establishment of database of parents' occupations for twins born 1870-1930 Abstract: In this infrastructure project, I will establish a database containing information on the occupations of parents of around 10,000 twins born 1870 through 1930. The project involves digitizing and coding typed index cards collected in the 1950s and stored in the archives at the Danish Twin Registry. Once established, the database will provide a truly unique opportunity to examine how intergenerational social mobility changed during the first industrialization of Denmark. The database will feed directly into my ongoing ERC-funded project on the social mobility of siblings in historical and comparative perspective, and it will serve as a critical extension of the existing database that covers twins born 1931 through 2000. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenter: Anders Grundtvig, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen Title: YouTube as personal “helper” on user’s health journeys Abstract: The rapid development and pervasive character of the internet are changing the ways people are gaining information. With a few clicks we can search any information on our computers, smartphones, and now even on smart watches. These developments have transformed how and where people most frequently are obtaining health information, now mostly online. (Lee et al., 2015). Digitized health information can simply exists as a digital translation of existing information. But much of the health information generated and existing on the Social Web are not “just” digital translations of information. Health Information are digitalized into the infrastructures of the Social Web, where it transforms and becomes an integrated part of the performativity and activity of the Social Web, which Anders Grundtvig frames as being mediated by the Social Web. Anders Grundtvig is interested in how the Social Web as mediator of Online Health Information (OHI) is influencing patients' health journeys. How are digital infrastructure, online culture, algorithms and so forth, influencing the communication, visibility, content, and (re)configuration of the health information? And how are these influencing patients’ health journeys? YouTube is as one of the main actors of the Social Web, both in regard of the astonishing user traffic and its influence to society as a whole. YouTube is accommodating the role as an influential and far-reaching public health information provider by establishing the YouTube Health branch, where they explicitly and actively is stating their attention on helping their users on the users health journeys. On a blog they write: In our increasingly digital world, online sources have become an important resource for questions about our health. Whether you want to learn about the warning signs of stroke, understand the symptoms and treatment for breast cancer, or take charge of your heart health, YouTube is here to help you make informed decisions about your health journey. (Google, 2022). YouTube Health is in this way simply stating their considerate program of helping their users on their health journeys. But what does it mean to be helped by YouTube on a personal health journey? And how are they using that knowledge to help the user? What does YouTube know about each of our health and the health journeys we are on? What does informed decisions mean for YouTube? As a video sharing platform, YouTube is known for its extraordinary large quantities of content and for accommodating an exceptionally diverse variety of content. So what does “informed” mean for YouTube in this regard? Is “more”, and “diverse” information e.g. perceived by YouTube to facilitate better informed decisions? So, what happens when YouTube, as one of the largest tech companies in the world, with one of the most influential algorithms, and as one of the largest social media platform, actively and explicitly enact the role as the mediator of public health information to help users make informed decisions about their health journeys? How are the infrastructure and inherent logics of the platform influencing and shaping the users health journeys?"
"Ofer Setty, Tel Aviv University";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-10-10";"14:15";"2022-10-10";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Universal Basic Income: Inspecting the Mechanisms"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Universal Basic Income: Inspecting the Mechanisms"" Abstract We consider the aggregate and distributional impact of Universal Basic Income (UBI). We develop a model to study a wide range of UBI programs and financing schemes and to highlight the key mechanisms behind their impact. The most crucial channel is the rise in distortionary taxation (required to fund UBI) on labor force participation. Second in importance is the decline in self-insurance due to the insurance UBI provides, resulting in lower aggregate capital. Third, UBI creates a positive income effect lowering labor force participation. Alternative tax-transfer schemes mitigate the impact on labor force participation and the cost of UBI. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Joe Hazzell, London School of Economics";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-10-24";"14:15";"2022-10-24";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Bonus Question: How Does Incentive Pay Affect Wage Rigidity?"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Bonus Question: How Does Incentive Pay Affect Wage Rigidity?"" Abstract Wage rigidity occupies a central role in business cycle models. However, the relevant notion of wage rigidity is unclear because in the data, base wages appear rigid but non-base wages, such as bonuses, are flexible in the data. This paper studies how incentive pay affects unemployment and inflation dynamics by embedding a general dynamic principal-agent problem into macro business cycle models. We show that a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides labor search model with flexible incentive pay exhibits identical first-order unemployment dynamics compared with a simple model with exogenously fixed wages \citep (Hall, 2005) calibrated to the same steady state moments. Similarly, in a New Keynesian model, incentive pay generates the same Phillips Curve relation between price inflation and unemployment as does a fixed wage model. Thus incentive pay is not relevant ""wage flexibility'' for unemployment or inflation dynamics. Contact person: Antoine Bertheau"
"SODAS Lecture: Algorithmic Global Wealth Chains ";"SODAS";"2022-10-28";"11:00";"2022-10-28";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"SODAS Lecture with Leonard Seabrooke, Copenhagen Business School, and Saila Stausholm, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies ";"Title: Algorithmic Global Wealth Chains Abstract: Legal affordances are pathways of action supported by professional communities in and across jurisdictions in the international political economy. Recent work has explored how multinational enterprises take advantage of legal affordances for wealth protection, including the use of legal arbitrage, ambiguity, and absences. Given the complexity of legal systems across jurisdictions, digital technologies are being put to use to search for legal affordances and calculate optimal allocations of economic activity between jurisdictions. This ranges from automating the manual handling of tax data to algorithms searching for optimal use of tax incentives, as well as machine learning to actively suggest tax planning strategies. In this paper we explore the use of digital tax technologies in the Big Four accounting firms. We explore how algorithms are able to locate legal affordances and how this changes the articulation of global wealth chains in three ways. The first is influence on professional characteristics, including the emergence of new hierarchies based on technological prowess. The second is new practices that permit new temporal ordering in tax planning, with the tax technologies integrating financial, operational and legal data and operating in real-time. The third is professional services that foster closer firm-level coordination between tax planning with financing and supply chain operations, entangling global value chains with global wealth chains. Bios: Leonard Seabrooke is Professor of International Political Economy and Economic Sociology in the Department of Organization at Copenhagen Business School. His current research concentrates on transnational professionals across a range of cases, from finance and tax experts, to consultants, sustainability experts, and others. Seabrooke's work has appeared in leading journals, including American Sociological Review, Annual Review of Sociology, Governance, International Studies Quarterly, Review of International Political Economy, and many others. Saila Stausholm is a postdoctoral researcher at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies. Her research is focused on corporate taxation and the policies governments undertake to attract investment and growth, as well as the ways corporations and professionals interact with these policies. Stausholms work spans across macro and micro dimensions and has included work on tax in mining contracts, Global Professional Service Firms, international tax reforms and algorithms in tax planning. This autumn, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Global Data Politics"". Global Data Politics Almost everything we do – how we meet, vote, shop, socialize or love – has become infused with, and is constantly generating new, digital data. Such data has helped generate entire professions such as (social) data science, and providing new insights into personal habits and convictions. With its capacity to reconfigure social relations, data has become the object of both local political struggles and activism and large-scale geopolitical clashes. In this lecture series, we investigate the emerging field of global data politics and turn to questions about the simultaneous datafication of politics and the politicization of data: What is the place of data in contemporary democracies? Does data have a nationality? How can and should cross-border data flows be governed and regulated? Can states, companies – or citizens – become digitally sovereign? Who owns (digital) data and their material infrastructure and why does this matter? (How) can we use digital data to change the world?"
"Felix Wellschmied, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-10-31";"14:15";"2022-10-31";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Wage Risk, Employment Risk, and the Rise in Wage Inequality "". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Wage Risk, Employment Risk, and the Rise in Wage Inequality"" Abstract Using a structural labor market model, we estimate for most US male workers an increase in the dispersion of idiosyncratic productivity shocks and an increase in the heterogeneity in pay across offered jobs between 1983-2013. These changes explain most of the increase in residual wage inequality and, depending on education, between 18 and 32 percent of the decreases in the aggregate employment and labor force participation rates. The higher uncertainty reduces the welfare of workers, and this effect is strongest for those with little education. Expanding the welfare state as a response to increasing uncertainty fails to increase workers' welfare. Joint with Ariel Mecikovsky Contact person: John Vincent Kramer"
"Emil Toft Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-11-04";"15:15";"";"";"Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Øster Farimagsgade 5, bygning 26, CSS 26.2.21";"Emil Toft Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on Consumer Behaviour and Advances in Economic Accounting""";"Emil Toft Hansen forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Essays on Consumer Behaviour and Advances in Economic Accounting"" Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21. Link til deltagelse via Zoom følger her: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/2336281735 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Jeppe Druedahl, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Benjamin Moll, London School of Economics Assistant Professor Arna Olafsson, Copenhagen Business School Abstract This thesis consists of four self-contained research papers. All papers share in common that they build on transaction data from a large Scandinavian retail bank, and that they in some way concerns consumer spending. In the first and second chapter, written together with Asger Lau Andersen, Niels Johannesen and Adam Sheridan, we explore the consumer reaction to the Covid-19 pandemic. In the first chapter we use transaction data from a large bank in Scandinavia to estimate the effect of social distancing laws on consumer spending during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in March-May 2020. We exploit that Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate that aggregate spending dropped by around 25% in Sweden and, as a result of the shutdown, by four additional percentage points in Denmark. This suggests that most of the economic contraction was caused by the virus itself and occurred regardless of social distancing laws. In the second chapter, we zoom in on the consumer response in Denmark and expand the time horizon to cover the entire first Covid-19 wave from March to August 2020. We document that while aggregate spending initially dropped by close to 30% it recovered almost fully towards the end of the first wave. We further show that spending plummeted in categories severely affected by supply restrictions, but increased in unaffected categories. Individual exposure to health risks and supply restrictions was associated with much larger spending cuts than exposure to income risk and unemployment. In the third chapter, written with Asger Lau Andersen, Kilian Huber, Niels Johannesen and Ludwig Straub, we propose and implement a system of disaggregated economic accounts. Such a system comprehensively disaggregates national accounting flows between small groups of consumers and producers, including consumption, income, international trade, and government transactions. We develop guidelines allowing researchers to measure disaggregated accounts using different types of “bottom-up” and “top-down” approaches. In our implementation, we measure a disaggregated system for the Danish economy by assigning all Danish consumers and production establishment to small region-by-industry cells. Unlike existing accounting systems, we measure the entire circular flow of money among consistently defined small groups, allowing us to develop facts on how different consumer and producer groups are connected. We develop a model with many sectors and regions that matches the disaggregated system and use it to show how disaggregated accounts improve our understanding of the distributional consequences of shocks. In the fourth chapter, I study what drives the demand for high-cost consumption loans, e.g., kviklån. I utilize the bank transaction data to identify usage of high-cost consumption loans as well as to extract information on spending, earnings and liquidity. I investigate the extent to which adverse events drive loan demand, or if it is more likely to be explained by borrowers' personality traits. My findings indicate that high-cost borrowers have self-control problems and that high-cost loans are likely used to finance impulse spending or function as a way to prolong a credit-financed spell of overconsumption."
"Benjamin Born, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-11-07";"14:15";"2022-11-07";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy"" Abstract We exploit the temporary VAT cut in Germany in the second half of 2020 as a natural experiment to study the spending response to unconventional fiscal policy. We use survey and scanner data on households’ consumption expenditures and their perceived pass-through of the tax change into prices to quantify the effects of this VAT policy. The temporary VAT cut led to a relative increase in durable spending of 32 percent for individuals with a high perceived pass-through. Semi- and non-durable spending also increased. The VAT policy increased aggregate consumption spending by 23 billion Euros, or 1.4 percent. Joint with Rüdiger Bachmann, Olga Goldfayn-Frank, Georgi Kocharkov, Ralph Luetticke, Michael Weber. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl "
"SODAS Data Discussion 11 November 2022";"SODAS";"2022-11-11";"11:00";"2022-11-11";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"Data Discussion with Peter Gregory Mehler and Fernando Bermejo .";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Peter Gregory Mehler, SODAS, University of Copenhagen Title: How Robust is Open-Source?: An Analysis of the Global Github Dependency Network Abstract: In the past decade there have been many large-scale security breaches exposing sensitive information of millions of people to malicious actors. One such venue for potential attack is the world’s largest open-source code repository: Github. We examine the robustness of the open-source ecosystem through a network analysis of the global Github dependency network. Our analysis reveals the weakness of the open-source ecosystem to targeted attacks. This weakness is two-fold; We show the small number of individuals and organisations responsible for safeguarding the open-source ecosystem as well as the ecosystem’s reliance on a few major libraries, indicating large power asymmetries among repositories. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenter: Fernando Bermejo, Executive Director at Media Ecosystems Analysis Group Title: Media Cloud as a massive open-source collection of news in the open web Abstract: This talk will provide an overview of the Media Cloud project (mediacloud.org): its history, capabilities, and future trajectory. The project, started at Harvard University over a decade ago, currently holds in its database more that 2 billion news stories, and continues to ingest content from over 60k news sources around the world. Evolving and managing a non-commercial research endeavour of such dimensions, and making it available to researchers, presents a series of significant challenges that will be discussed in the talk. "
"Vincent Sterk, University College London";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-11-14";"14:15";"2022-11-14";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Monetary Policy during a Cost-of-Living Crisis"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Monetary Policy during a Cost-of-Living Crisis"" Abstract This paper studies the effects of monetary policy during times when sectoral supply shocks raise the cost of living, in particular for low-income households. We present a multi-sector Heterogeneous-Agents New-Keynesian model with a generalized, non-homothetic preferences, giving rise to heterogeneous consumption baskets and demand elasticities across the income and wealth distribution. In this setting, household inequality directly affects the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, in which an endogenous “markup wedge” emerges. The presence of this wedge creates a trade-off in managing the aggregate output gap versus inflation, which can be particularly strong following sector-specific shocks. In addition, such shocks can create strong distributional effects, which monetary policy may help to address. We evaluate the policy trade-offs in a quantitative analysis, applied to the United Kingdom. Joint with Alan Olivi and Dajana Xhani. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl "
"Vincent Sterk, University College London";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-11-14";"14:15";"2022-11-14";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Monetary Policy during a Cost-of-Living Crisis"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Monetary Policy during a Cost-of-Living Crisis"" Abstract This paper studies the effects of monetary policy during times when sectoral supply shocks raise the cost of living, in particular for low-income households. We present a multi-sector Heterogeneous-Agents New-Keynesian model with a generalized, non-homothetic preferences, giving rise to heterogeneous consumption baskets and demand elasticities across the income and wealth distribution. In this setting, household inequality directly affects the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, in which an endogenous “markup wedge” emerges. The presence of this wedge creates a trade-off in managing the aggregate output gap versus inflation, which can be particularly strong following sector-specific shocks. In addition, such shocks can create strong distributional effects, which monetary policy may help to address. We evaluate the policy trade-offs in a quantitative analysis, applied to the United Kingdom. Joint with Alan Olivi and Dajana Xhani Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Roland Rathelot, CREST, ENSAE, IPParis";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-11-15";"13:15";"2022-11-15";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""How do women and men search for jobs?"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""How do women and men search for jobs?"" Abstract We use data on job views and applications on the largest job board in Sweden, Platsbanken. We merge this data with employment and unemployment registers. We document gender differentials in job search and analyse how they map to differentials in labour-market outcomes. Comparing unemployed job seekers with similar characteristics, we find that women apply to less jobs than men, and target jobs that pay less and are closer to home. Women and men have similar job-finding rates, and women do get jobs that pay less and are closer to home. We expand a simple search-and-matching framework to interpret our results, and show that these results can only be explained by a combination of factors: women and men need to differ in valuation given to non-wage amenities, search costs, and unemployment value to account for the full set of empirical findings. The fact that gender gaps do not vary with time spent in unemployment indicate that differential over-optimism is unlikely to be a key explanation for the gender wage gap. (Joint with Lena Hensvik and Thomas Le Barbanchon)Contact person: Daphné Jocelyne Skandalis"
"SODAS Lecture: Making a European Data Union &#8211; Security, politics and database interoperability";"SODAS";"2022-11-18";"11:00";"2022-11-18";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"SODAS lecture with Rocco Bellanova, Vrije Universiteit Brussel ";"Title: Making a European Data Union – Security, politics and database interoperability Abstract: There is a European Data Union in the making. Even before the adoption of the so-called Interoperability Regulations in 2019, public authorities and institutions had been vocal about their ambition of making information stored in existing and future autonomous databases interconnected and available to various authorities across Europe. The domains of security, border controls and migration governance are those in which database interoperability is currently being implemented on the ground. While law scholars have already pointed out the implications and challenges raised by a shift that is far from being purely technical, we still know very little about the political dimension of such infrastructural re-ordering. In this lecture, I will sketch the contours of two ongoing processes concerning database interoperability (the creation of a data-lake at Europol and the interconnection of EU-centralized databases). I will suggest that works from Science and Technology Studies and Critical Data Studies can help us refine International Relations’ and EU studies’ conceptual tool-boxes for studying the relation between digital technologies and European security practices. Bio: Rocco Bellanova is Research Professor at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (interdisciplinary research group Law, Science, Technology & Society-LSTS). He is the PI of the ERC project DATAUNION - The European Data Union: European Security Integration through Database Interoperability. Before joining VUB, Rocco was Assistant Professor of Critical Data Studies at the Department of Media Studies of the University of Amsterdam (UvA). He also carried out his research in the department of Political Science of UvA, the Institute for European Studies of the Université Saint-Louis – Bruxelles and the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO. His work sits at the intersection of politics, law, and science and technology studies. He studies how digital data become pivotal elements in the governing of societies. His research focuses on European security practices and the role of data protection therein. He has co-edited the book Surveillance, Privacy and Security. Citizens' Perspectives (Routledge - 2017) and special issues focusing on digital sovereignty (2022), scholarly practices of critique (2019) and science and technology in security practices (2020). He has published in journals such as Regulation & Governance, Journal of Common Market Studies, European Security, Geopolitics, Security Dialogue, European Journal of Social Theory, International Political Sociology. This autumn, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Global Data Politics"". Global Data Politics Almost everything we do – how we meet, vote, shop, socialize or love – has become infused with, and is constantly generating new, digital data. Such data has helped generate entire professions such as (social) data science, and providing new insights into personal habits and convictions. With its capacity to reconfigure social relations, data has become the object of both local political struggles and activism and large-scale geopolitical clashes. In this lecture series, we investigate the emerging field of global data politics and turn to questions about the simultaneous datafication of politics and the politicization of data: What is the place of data in contemporary democracies? Does data have a nationality? How can and should cross-border data flows be governed and regulated? Can states, companies – or citizens – become digitally sovereign? Who owns (digital) data and their material infrastructure and why does this matter? (How) can we use digital data to change the world?"
"Leopoldo Catania, Aarhus University";"Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-11-18";"14:00";"2022-11-18";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Leverage Effect and Propagation in Stochastic Volatility Models"". Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""The Leverage Effect and Propagation in Stochastic Volatility Models"" Abstract The talk is based on two papers:• Catania (2022, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics): “A Stochastic Volatility Model With a General Leverage Specification”We introduce a new stochastic volatility model that postulates a general correlation structure between the shocks of the measurement and log volatility equations at different temporal lags. The resulting specification is able to better characterize the leverage effect and propagation in financial time series. Furthermore, it nests other asymmetric volatility models and can be used for testing and diagnostics. We derive the simulated maximum likelihood and quasi maximum likelihood estimators and investigate their finite sample performance in a simulation study. An empirical illustration shows that the postulated correlation structure improves the fit of the leverage propagation and leads to more precise volatility predictions.• Catania (2022, working paper): “The Leverage Effect and Propagation”This paper proposes a new way to measure the leverage effect and its propagation over time. We show that, with respect to the newly proposed measure, common volatility models like the GJR-GARCH, the Exponential GARCH, and the asymmetric SV can be inaccurate to correctly represent the leverage effect and its propagation for financial time series. We propose to modify the variance recursion of common volatility models by including an auxiliary leverage process which allows for a proper representation of the leverage effect and its propagation over time. Empirical results indicate that the inclusion of the auxiliary leverage process is required for both in sample and out of sample analyses. Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen"
"Emil Holst Partsch forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling";"";"2022-11-21";"10:00";"";"";"";"Emil Holst Partsch forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Macroeconomics under the Microscope - Heterogeneity and Uncertainty""";"Emil Holst Partsch forsvarer sin ph.d.-afhandling:""Macroeconomics under the Microscope - Heterogeneity and Uncertainty"" Ph.d.-forsvaret foregår i CSS 26.2.21. For at deltage pr. Zoom, bruges dette link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/9536476672, passcode: 1234 En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan fås ved henvendelse til: charlotte.jespersen@econ.ku.dk Bedømmelsesudvalg Lektor Søren Hove Ravn, Økonomisk Institut, Københavns Universitet, Danmark (formand) Professor Peter Sedlacek, University of New South Wales Associate Professor Erik Oberg, Uppsala University Abstract This Ph.D. thesis consists of four self-contained chapters, which all investigate macroeconomic questions from a micro perspective: through structural models with either full distributional heterogeneity or approximations thereof, and in one case, through microdata. In addition, all projects are bound together by incorporating risk and/or uncertainty as drivers of outcomes. In the first chapter, co-authored with Emiliano Santoro and Ivan Petrella, we quantify the direct and indirect effects of monetary policy transmission in a two-sector Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) with durable and nondurable goods. With an empirically plausible share of liquidity-constrained consumers, we find that transitory income (indirect) effects drive the brunt of the consumption response of both goods and are key in generating positive co-movement when prices are asymmetrically sticky between sectors. Direct effects, however, regain strength relative to one-sector HANK models, as durables are quite interest rate sensitive. We show that results are robust to the realistic cases of deficit financing and sticky wages. In the second chapter, co-authored with Emiliano Santoro and Ivan Petrella, we build tractable two-sector HANK models where households may infrequently participate in financial markets. Both durables and nondurables are available for household consumption. In a model with two household types – households constrained in bonds and those not – having access to durables implies a de facto risk-sharing condition. Thus, the amplification of household-specific and sectoral nondurable consumption in response to monetary shocks depends on preference heterogeneity over nondurables. This is unlike similar one-sector models, where fiscal redistribution from unconstrained to constrained households plays a prominent role. When introducing a third agent, hand-to-mouth consumers with no access to durables or financial assets, fiscal redistribution amplifies the conditional volatility of GDP, which is opposite to one-sector economies. In the third chapter, co-authored with Jeppe Druedahl, we solve and evaluate global solutions of heterogeneous agent models with non-linear aggregate dynamics. Specifically, we investigate models where a small number of states can summarize aggregate dynamics. We let the perceived law-of-motion that agents use for now- and forecasting be arbitrarily non-linear. We use either a neural net or radial basis function interpolation to deliver precise global solutions. Radial basis function interpolation is much faster and more stable in terms of convergence. We solve our benchmark model with an aggregate non-linearity and period-by-period market clearing in less than 15 minutes. The fourth and final chapter, co-authored with Luca Neri, documents the dynamic effects of uncertainty shocks on skilled and unskilled labor using Danish registry data. In particular, we use Denmark as a small open economy subject to several aggregate uncertainty shocks. Identification relies on differential industry exposure to these shocks. Our results highlight that the labor displacement effects ascribed to uncertainty shocks affect unskilled labor more than skilled. We build a dynamic partial equilibrium heterogeneous firm with skilled and unskilled labor inputs and heterogeneous labor adjustment costs to rationalize our findings."
"Elisabeth Proehl, University of Amsterdam";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-11-21";"14:15";"2022-11-21";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Approximating Equilibria with Ex-Post Heterogeneity and Aggregate Risk"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Approximating Equilibria with Ex-Post Heterogeneity and Aggregate Risk"" Abstract Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with ex-post heterogeneity due to idiosyncratic risk have to be solved numerically. This is a nontrivial task as the cross-sectional distribution of endogenous variables becomes an element of the state space due to aggregate risk. Existing global solution methods often assume bounded rationality in terms of a parametric law of motion of aggregate variables in order to reduce dimensionality. I do not make this assumption and tackle dimensionality by polynomial chaos expansions, a projection technique for square-integrable random variables. This approach results in a nonparametric law of motion of aggregate variables. Moreover, I establish convergence of the proposed algorithm to the rational expectations equilibrium. Economically, I find that higher levels of idiosyncratic risk sharing lead to higher systemic risk, i.e., higher volatility within the ergodic state distribution, and second, heterogeneity leads to an amplification of aggregate risk for sufficiently high levels of risk sharing. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl "
"SODAS Lecture: Data Visualisation as a Critical Practice";"SODAS";"2022-12-02";"14:00";"2022-12-02";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"SODAS Lecture with Francesco Ragazzi, Leiden University";"Title: Data Visualisation as a Critical Practice: Mapping Biometric Mass Surveillance in the World Abstract: Public and scholarly debates in International Relations are increasingly dominated by large quantities of data. In this context, visualisation is often presented as a way to render this data accessible. Yet as beautiful aesthetic objects, data visualisations - understood as the mathematical visualisation of datasets - very often smuggle old assumptions about maps, plots and graphs: namely that they represent an objective, neutral, and value-free reality. Should critical international relations scholarship, grounded precisely in the critique of such objectivity thus abandon data visualisation? Are networks, graphs and maps inescapable devices of positivism and security as some scholars have argued? In this paper, while acknowledging part of the critique, I argue that it is possible, and indeed desirable, to use data visualisation tools critically. I show concretely how this could be done, through a data visualisation interface some colleagues and I have developed to map critically the deployment of Biometric Mass Surveillance systems in the world. Bio: Francesco Ragazzi is associate professor in International Relations at Leiden University (Netherlands) and associated scholar at the Centre d’Etude sur les Conflits, Liberté et Sécurité (France). He is also co-director of ReCNTR (Leiden University’s Center on Multimodal and Audiovisual methods). His research interests include counter-radicalisation, counterterrorism and digital surveillance. His current research project SECURITY VISION (www.securityvision.io) explores the security uses of computer vision in areas such as biometric surveillance, social media content moderation and border control. This autumn, the theme of the SODAS lecture series is ""Global Data Politics"". Global Data Politics Almost everything we do – how we meet, vote, shop, socialize or love – has become infused with, and is constantly generating new, digital data. Such data has helped generate entire professions such as (social) data science, and providing new insights into personal habits and convictions. With its capacity to reconfigure social relations, data has become the object of both local political struggles and activism and large-scale geopolitical clashes. In this lecture series, we investigate the emerging field of global data politics and turn to questions about the simultaneous datafication of politics and the politicization of data: What is the place of data in contemporary democracies? Does data have a nationality? How can and should cross-border data flows be governed and regulated? Can states, companies – or citizens – become digitally sovereign? Who owns (digital) data and their material infrastructure and why does this matter? (How) can we use digital data to change the world?"
"Pascal Michaillat, Brown University";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-12-05";"14:15";"2022-12-05";"15:15";"Virtuel zoom seminar/CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"u* = √uv. Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"u* = √uv Abstract Most governments are mandated to maintain their economies at full employment. We propose that the best marker of full employment is the efficient unemployment rate, u*. We define u* as the unemployment rate that minimizes the nonproductive use of labor—both jobseeking and recruiting. The nonproductive use of labor is well measured by the number of jobseekers and vacancies, u + v. Through the Beveridge curve, the number of vacancies is inversely related to the number of jobseekers. With such symmetry, the labor market is efficient when there are as many jobseekers as vacancies (u = v), too tight when there are more vacancies than jobseekers (v > u), and too slack when there are more jobseekers than vacancies (u > v). Accordingly, the efficient unemployment rate is the geometric average of the unemployment and vacancy rates: u* = √uv. We compute u* for the United States between 1930 and 2022. We find for instance that the US labor market has been over full employment (u < u*) since May 2021. Joint with Emmanuel Saez. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl "
"Magnus Tolum Buus, US San Diego and University of Copenhagen (Job Market Mock Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2022-12-07";"15:00";"2022-12-07";"16:00";"Virtuel zoom seminar";"""Network Effects in Export Markets: Evidence from Matched Exporter-Importer Data"". Job Market Mock Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Network Effects in Export Markets: Evidence from Matched Exporter-Importer Data"" Abstract This paper provides novel causal evidence of network effects in export markets. Using Danish firm-to-firm trade data, I show that a larger existing buyer network leads to more new buyer relationships. Specifically, one additional buyer match in the previous year leads to 0.2 new buyer matches. I establish causality by exploiting variation in exporters’ access to export promotion services. I complement the direct, causal evidence with indirect, correlational evidence based on observed price variation both in the cross-section and over time. Network effects explain about half the total accumulation of buyers by Danish exporters and, hence, is an important driver of total export growth. These findings have important implications for the optimal design of trade policies: Matching new exporters to foreign importers should be a primary objective. Contact person: Emiliano Santor"
"SODAS Data Discussion 9 December 2022";"SODAS";"2022-12-09";"11:00";"2022-12-09";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"Data Discussion with Lau Lilleholt and Leon Houf.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Leon Houf, Heidelberg University Title: Protective networks around harassers Abstract: Harassment in any form is a widespread phenomenon in social contexts, including work environments such as academia. Often, harassers have a network around them that protects them from consequences of their harassing behaviour. This ""harasser network"" can protect against allegations and shield from (legal) consequences, to the point that perpetrators can stay employed and continue their behaviour. In this project we aim to better understand these protective networks around harassers. We will develop a rigorous formalism and use empirical data to identify types of protective networks and the methods they employ to protect harassers. The results of this research should inform policymakers how to design systems and mechanisms that can enforce consequences on harassers without being impeded by their protective networks. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenter: Lau Lilleholt, SODAS, University of Copenhagen Title: The Danish Personality and Social Behavior Panel (DPSBP) Abstract: In the fall of 2021, we (Ingo Zettler and Lau Lilleholt) launched The Danish Personality and Social Behavior Panel (DPSBP). DPSBP is a large-scale panel study, involving 14,071 Danish citizens, which covers personality and prosocial/antisocial behaviours, using a combination of both self-report and incentivised behavioural measures. Notably, the data from DPSBP can be linked to data from Statistics Denmark, making it a unique and widely applicable dataset."
"Luigi Iovino, Bocconi University";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-12-12";"14:15";"2022-12-12";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The (mis)perceived slope of the Phillips curve: Monetary policy with limited aware agents"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""The (mis)perceived slope of the Phillips curve: Monetary policy with limited aware agents"" Abstract Do agents understand well the determinants of the trade-off between output and inflation? What are the sources of their possible ""mistakes""? We combine data on aggregate variables and individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to derive a new test for Rational Expectations (RE). The test is based on cross-variable restrictions between forecast errors about inflation and past expected output. The test rejects the RE hypothesis. We provide an interpretation of the empirical evidence based on agents that are unaware of supply shocks and, hence, commit an omitted variable bias when inferring the trade-off between output and inflation. We cast limited awareness into an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model and show that the presence of limited-aware agents increases the output cost of reducing inflation. In addition, when observing changes in the nominal interest rate that contains information about the state of the economy, limited-aware agents interpret signals in a biased way, possibly leading to over-reaction or under-reaction to news. The model can help address some ""puzzles"" of the New-Keynesian setup. Joint with Davide Debortoli, Nicola Pavoni, and Donghai. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"Inge van den Bijgaart, Utrecht University";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-12-13";"13:00";"2022-12-13";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Screening Green Innovation Through Carbon Pricing"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Screening Green Innovation Through Carbon Pricing"" Abstract Green innovation is essential for climate change mitigation, but not all innovative projects deliver equal social value. We consider innovator heterogeneity in a model where the policymaker cannot observe innovation quality and directly subsidize the socially most valuable green innovations. We find that carbon pricing works as an innovation screening device; this creates a premium on the optimal carbon price, raising it above the Pigouvian level. We identify conditions for perfect screening and generalize results to screening policies under alternative intellectual property regimes and complementary policies. Contact person: Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen"
"Maria Schlier defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2022-12-19";"14:30";"2022-12-19";"16:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"";"Candiate Maria Schlier, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title Empirical essays in Organizational economics Supervisor Professor Morten Bennedsen Assessment Committee Associate Professor Nikolaj Harmon Department of Economics Professor Guido Friebel, Goethe University Frankfurt Professor Mario D Amore, Bocconi University Summary This dissertation contains three self-contained Chapters in the field of organizational economics. Focusing on school principals, teachers, and CEOs, each Chapter casts light on ways having different leaders or being in different organizations has an impact on performance. In the first Chapter, I provide evidence of a cause and a consequence of teacher absenteeism. First, I provide evidence that the presence of the school principal impacts the level of teacher absence in a school. I estimate this effect using principal hospitalization. As the principal temporarily separates from the school to be at the hospital, I check if the behavior of teachers is affected. The main advantage of this approach is that I can assess the importance of the principal when he or she leaves and returns to the same school, solving the problems of endogeneity that come from other specifications using fixed effects. I find evidence that one extra day of principal hospitalization leads to an increase of 0.02 teacher absent days. Then, I estimate the impact of teacher absence on students using a variation of the teacher added-value model with student fixed effects. In other words, I can see the variation of school grades within a given student and their exposure to different teachers with different levels of absenteeism, controlling for unobservable aspects of the student. I find evidence that, for a given student, having teachers with higher levels of absence is associated with lower grades. In the second Chapter, co-authored with Morten Bennedsen, we investigate how organizational settings can affect the level of absenteeism in schools. We decompose teacher absenteeism in two dimensions, first, the extensive margin relating to the type of teachers that work in a given school and their drive and motivation; and second, an intensive margin relating to the school environment and their incentives and absence culture. We will provide evidence that institutional environment explain more than half the difference in teacher absenteeism between top and bottom schools. This effect is even larger when we focus on discretionary absenteeism, which we measure using absence days in conjunction with public holidays. In other words, teachers tend to adapt to the absence culture of their school. We also provide evidence that leadership matters in the level of absenteeism exploiting the rotation of principals across schools and the changes in absence levels. These results together provide evidence that institutional school settings play a vital role in teacher absenteeism. In the third Chapter, co-authored with Morten Bennedsen, Amanda Goodall and Andrew Oswald, we provide empirical evidence that having a firm leader with longer experience in the firms' specific industry tends to produce higher returns on capital. This result is found using longitudinal data in Danish firms, collecting 17 year of previous work experience of CEOs. We are able to control for CEO fixed-effects and for firm fixed-effects. Our results indicate that every 13 years of extra CEO industry experience is estimated to add an extra 1 percentage point to the annual rate of return on a company’s assets. The size of this estimate is substantial statistically and in economic value."
"Anders Humlum, University of Chicago";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2022-12-20";"13:15";"2022-12-20";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Changing Tracks: Human Capital Investment after Loss of Earning Ability "". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Changing Tracks: Human Capital Investment after Loss of Earning Ability"" Abstract We provide the first evidence on how workers invest in human capital after losing ability. Studying quasi-random work accidents using Danish administrative data, we find that workers take up higher education after physical injuries. Workers enroll in bachelor's programs that build on their work experiences and provide pathways to cognitive occupations. Yet, most injured workers do not invest in human capital, and we cast light on the underlying causes. Exploiting differences in eligibility driven by prior vocational training, we find that human capital investment moves injured workers from disability benefits to full-time employment, earning 25 percent more than before their injuries. Higher education for injured workers can generate net social returns of 500 percent. Joint with Pernille P. Jørgensen and Jakob R. Munch Contact person: Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg"
"Janek Bligaard Eskildsen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-06";"14:00";"2023-01-06";"16:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"";"Candidate Janek Bligaard Eskildsen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title Integrating Technology and the Environment in Computable General Equilibrium Models Supervisor Professor Peter Birch Sørensen Assessment committee Professor Anders Munk-Nielsen Associale Professor Mar Reguant Professor Christoph Böhringer "
"Florian Schneider, University of Zurich (Job Market Seminar) ";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-09";"11:00";"2023-01-09";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Financial incentives for vaccination do not have negative unintended consequences"" Abstract Financial incentives to encourage healthy and prosocial behaviors often trigger initial behavioral change, but a large academic literature cautions against using them. Critics warn that financial incentives can crowd out prosocial motivations and reduce perceived safety and trust, thereby reducing healthy behaviors when no payments are offered and eroding morals more generally. Here we report findings from a large-scale, pre-registered study in Sweden that causally measures the unintended consequences of offering financial incentives for taking a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. We use a unique combination of random exposure to financial incentives, population-wide administrative vaccination records, and rich survey data. We find no negative consequences of financial incentives; we can reject even small negative impacts of offering financial incentives on future vaccination uptake, morals, trust, and perceived safety. In a complementary study, we find that informing US residents about the existence of state incentive programs also has no negative consequences. Our findings inform not only the academic debate on financial incentives for behavior change, but also policy-makers who consider using financial incentives to change behavior. Contact person: Thomas Markussen "
"Marion Leroutier, Stockholm School of Economics (Job Market Seminar) ";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-09";"14:00";"2023-01-09";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Cost of Air Pollution for Workers and Firms"" Abstract Poor air quality negatively affects workers' health and cognitive functions, but we know little about the countrywide consequences for firms. In this paper, we estimate the causal effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure on workers' absenteeism and firms' monthly sales using unique employer-employee data and granular measures of air pollution in France from 2009 to 2015. We exploit variation in air pollution induced by changes in monthly wind directions at the postcode level. We find that a 10% increase in monthly PM2.5 exposure increases worker absenteeism in the same month by 1% and reduces sales in manufacturing, construction, and professional services, with different lags. Sales losses are several orders of magnitude larger than what we would expect if workers' absenteeism was the only factor affecting firms' performance. This suggests a potentially large effect of pollution on the productivity of non-absent workers. We estimate that reducing air pollution in France in line with the World Health Organization's guidelines would have saved at least 0.3% of GDP annually in terms of avoided sales losses. Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"Magnus Tolum Buus, US San Diego/University of Copenhagen (Job Market Seminar) ";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-10";"14:00";"2023-01-10";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Network Effects in Export Markets: Evidence from Matched Exporter-Importer Data"" Abstract This paper provides novel causal evidence of network effects in export markets. Using Danish firm-to-firm trade data, I show that a larger existing buyer network leads to more new buyer relationships. Specifically, one additional buyer match in the previous year leads to 0.2 new buyer matches. I establish causality by exploiting variation in exporters’ access to export promotion services. I complement the direct, causal evidence with indirect, correlational evidence based on observed price variation both in the cross-section and over time. Network effects explain about half the total accumulation of buyers by Danish exporters and, hence, is an important driver of total export growth. These findings have important implications for the optimal design of trade policies: Matching new exporters to foreign importers should be a primary objective. Contact person: Mette Ejrnæs"
"Linnea Lorentzen, Norwegian Business School  (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-11";"14:00";"2023-01-11";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Domino Effects: Understanding Sectoral Reallocation and its Wage Implications"" Abstract How do sector-specific shocks induce workers to move between sectors, and what is the impact on the distribution of earnings? While we know that sector-specific shocks affect workers in directly exposed sectors, less is known about the equilibrium effects on indirectly exposed workers. This paper studies how shocks hitting one sector can, mediated through sectoral reallocation, impact workers across sectors. Specifically, I study the sectoral reallocation in Norway, driven by the collapse in the price of Brent Crude Oil in 2014. The data shows the worker reallocation to be asymmetric; the oil workers moved into certain destination sectors in particular. By exploiting variation in into which sectors oil workers had been moving pre-shock, I provide novel empirical evidence on how workers in sectors more exposed to worker inflows experienced a relative reduction in earnings growth and an increased probability of leaving their sector. To quantify the equilibrium effects, I employ a Roy model of sectoral reallocation where sectoral skills are distributed log-normally and correlated across sectors. I calibrate the skill correlations by targeting the sectoral reallocation observed in the data. The model simulates the counterfactual reallocation driven by the shock in isolation and quantifies the magnitude of the equilibrium effects. The quantitative results show that, on average, across local non-tradable sectors, the shock is associated with a real wage decline of 10% of the oil sector real wage decline, with a maximum of 66%.Contact person: Anders Munk-Nielsen"
"Jonas Lieber, University of Chicago  (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-12";"14:30";"2023-01-12";"15:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Estimating Concentration Parameters for Bandit Algorithms"" Abstract Bandit models are widely used to capture learning in contexts where agents repeatedly choose actions with uncertain rewards. Examples include firms maximizing profits by experimenting with prices or advertisement, randomized control trials maximizing outcomes by evaluating alternative treatments, and consumers maximizing utility by trying experience goods. A popular bandit algorithm is the upper confidence bound (UCB) algorithm. The UCB algorithm requires sub-Gaussian concentration parameters as inputs. In practice, these parameters are unknown so that the UCB algorithm is not fully data driven. I propose a method to estimate these parameters and use the estimated parameters to conduct inference with Hoeffding's inequality. I show that asymptotic inference with estimated parameters is valid under mild and optimal under stronger conditions. In finite samples, I establish validity of inference under an anti-concentration condition. Equipped with the proposed estimator for sub-Gaussian concentration parameters, I adapt the UCB algorithm to settings where these parameters are unknown. In an empirical application, I study price experimentation after the liberalization of the spirits market in Washington State in 2012 and find that the adapted UCB algorithm leads to considerably higher profits. My theoretical results can also be applied to non-standard inference problems that arise in partial identification and machine learning. Contact person: Anders Munk-Nielsen"
"Morten Nyborg Støstad, Paris School of Economics (Job Market Seminar) ";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-13";"14:00";"2023-01-13";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Consequences of Inequality: Beliefs and Redistributive Preferences"" Abstract What are the societal consequences of economic inequality, and how do concerns for these consequences affect individuals' redistributive preferences? This paper examines beliefs about how economic inequality changes society, and establishes a causal link between such inequality externality beliefs and redistributive preferences. Using two representative surveys of a combined 6,731 U.S. citizens, we show that a majority of respondents believe that inequality leads to negative societal outcomes through channels such as increased crime, deteriorating democratic institutions, and diminished economic growth. We establish a causal link from individuals' inequality externality beliefs to their redistributive preferences by using exogenously provided video information treatments. With this and other methods we estimate that inequality externality beliefs are about two-thirds as impactful for individuals' redistributive preferences as broad fairness views. Although Democrats are more likely to believe in the negative consequences of inequality than Republicans, beliefs are surprisingly similar across political parties and less polarized than comparable economic fairness views. Inequality externality-based arguments cause less anger among respondents than fairness-based arguments, however, indicating structural differences in the two types of arguments. Contact person: Niels Johannesen"
"Elif Bike Osun, University of Maryland (Job Market Seminar) ";"";"2023-01-16";"11:00";"2023-01-16";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Effect of Feedback on Beliefs About Self-Ability"" Abstract I study the effect of different feedback structures on belief updating in an ego-relevant task using a controlled experiment. Across treatments, subjects receive feedback through a signal with either a noise component, a comparison component, or both. The first two signals are commonly used in the literature, while I develop the latter to systematically analyze the effect of noise and comparison components on belief updating. I find that the signal structure is an important determinant of how subjects update their beliefs. This is driven by men and women exhibiting different biases depending on whether the signal is noisy or comparative. Men underweight bad news when the signal has a noise component and women underweight good news when the signal has a comparison component. These findings have implications for policies aiming to reduce the well-established gender gap in self-confidence through feedback provision. Contact person: Thomas Markussen"
"Gosia Majewska, Toulouse School of Economics (Job Market Seminar) ";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-17";"14:00";"2023-01-17";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Incentivizing novelty in antibiotic development"" Abstract In antibiotics, a constant supply of new products is needed as bacteria become resistant to the existing drugs. I estimate the effectiveness of innovation incentives for antibiotics, introduced in 2012. In a difference-in-differences framework, I find that the incentives have a positive effect on clinical trial success rates, but only for projects using known technologies. To assess the long-term effect of the incentives on market entry, I set up a dynamic structural model of pharmaceutical innovation. The multi agent setting of the model allows the firm decisions to depend not only on the projects' expected cost and profit, but also on the outcomes of technologically close projects. Counterfactual simulations show a 20% increase in the number of market entries due the current incentive scheme, driven mostly by research subsidies. Contact person: Miriam Wüst"
"Lukas Nord, European University Institute (Job Market Seminar) ";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-18";"14:00";"2023-01-18";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Shopping, Demand Composition, and Equilibrium Prices"" Abstract This paper develops an equilibrium theory of expenditure inequality and price dispersion, to study how retail prices respond to households' shopping behavior. Heterogeneity in the effort to search for prices implies that the price elasticity faced by retailers depends on the composition of demand. For a search market with price posting, I show analytically that retailers optimally charge higher markups if goods are mainly consumed by low-search-effort households. Additional predictions on the shape of posted price distributions are consistent with evidence from US supermarket scanner micro-data. I embed search for prices into an incomplete markets model with non-homothetic preferences and equilibrium price dispersion for multiple varieties. Endogenous heterogeneity in search effort allows the model to match evidence on differences in prices paid for identical goods and reduces inequality in consumption relative to expenditure. I show that the equilibrium response of posted prices across products doubles this direct effect of search on inequality. In addition, the model reconciles conflicting evidence on the cyclicality of retail markups, as aggregate shocks change the composition of demand. Finally, I find that the response of posted prices to a redistributive earnings tax compensates top earners for up to 14% of their losses. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Frederik Plesner Lyngse, University of Copenhagen (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-19";"11:00";"2023-01-19";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Causal Effects of Early Career Sorting on Labor and Marriage Market Choices: A Foundation for Gender Disparities and Norms"" Abstract We study whether and how early labor market choices determine longer-run career versus family outcomes differentially for male and female professionals. We analyze the physician labor market by exploiting a randomized lottery that determines the sorting of Danish physicians into internships across local labor markets. Using administrative data spanning ten years after physicians’ graduations, we find causal effects of early-career sorting on a range of life cycle outcomes that cascade from labor market choices, including human capital accumulation and occupational choice, to marriage market choices, including matching and fertility. The persistent effects are entirely concentrated among women, whereas men experience only temporary career disruptions. The evidence points to differential family-career tradeoffs and the mentorship employers provide as channels underlying this gender divergence. Our findings have implications for policies aimed at gender equality in outcomes, as they reveal how persistent gaps can arise even in institutionally gender-neutral settings with early-stage equality of opportunity. Contact person: Mette Ejrnæs"
"Joachim Kahr Rasmussen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-19";"13:00";"2023-01-19";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"";"Candidate Joachim Kahr Rasmussen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title Essays on the Economics of Intergenerational Mobility and More Supervisors Professor Søren Leth-PetersenProfessor Claus Thustrup Kreiner Assessment Committee Associate Professor Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen Department of Economics Associate Professor Martin Nybom , University of Uppsala Associate Professor Malene Kallestrup-Lamb , University of Aarhus Summary This PhD thesis consists of four chapters. Despite the fact that the chapters are to some extent related and complement each other, they are fundamentally self-contained. In the first chapter, co-authored with Ulrika Ahrsjö and René Karadakic, we present new evidence on the existence and drivers of trends in intergenerational income mobility using administrative income data from Scandinavia along with survey data from the United States. Harmonizing data from Sweden, Denmark and Norway, we find that intergenerational rank associations in income have increased uniformly across Sweden, Denmark, and Norway for cohorts born between 1951 and 1979. Splitting these trends by gender, we find that father-son mobility has been stable, while family correlations for mothers and daughters trend upwards. We argue that the observed decline in intergenerational mobility is consistent with female skills becoming increasingly valued in the labor market. In the second chapter, co-authored with Julie Marx, we exploit detailed wealth records from Denmark along with multi-generational family linkages in order to investigate the extent at which inheritances from grandparents are invested in children. We find that inheritances have a substantial impact on child human capital accumulation as measured by school performance if received around the time of birth, while the impact is smaller in later years. In a series of event studies, we rationalize this finding. In particular, we provide evidence of substantial reductions in parental labor supply and movements to better neighborhoods in response to receiving inheritances, and these effects are stronger when parents have young children. In the third chapter, co-authored with Kristian U. O. Larsen, we assess the applicability of reinforcement learning (RL) in approximating solutions to stylized discrete-time dynamic stochastic control problems known from the economic literature. We mainly direct our attention to problems where the state-action space is large and potentially continuous. Using different RL-based algorithms for solving these complex problems, we find that RL indeed shows promising potential in dealing efficiently with high dimensionalities. However, we also highlight that time-efficient solutions to high-dimensional problems with reinforcement learning generally relies on efficient tuning of hyperparameters – a process that can be tremendously. The fourth and final chapter of this dissertation is early stage work in which I investigate what drives estimates of intergenerational income mobility in the very long run. As already touched upon in the first chapter, a growing empirical literature has in recent years documented how intergenerational mobility in income has been declining over several decades. In parallel, a far more mature literature has discussed whether skill-biased technological change induced by a rising supply of skilled workers has caused the return on skill to rise. An open question is whether these two phenomena are related. Utilizing a multi-generational model of skill-specific technologies where the direction of research is endogenous and responds to profit incentives, and where workers endogenously select into occupations taking specialization costs and their individual skill composition into account, I characterize how changes in the equilibrium allocation of skilled labor (arising from shifts in the demand or supply for skilled labor) may drive dynamics in skill premia and earnings dispersion. Making the assumption that latent skills are partly inherited, I show that such changes may also affect long run intergenerational income mobility, and I find that at sufficiently high degrees of substitution between skilled and unskilled production, intergenerational mobility is locally declining in association with a rising equilibrium skill supply."
"SODAS Lecture: The Effects of Social Movements - Evidence from #MeToo";"SODAS";"2023-01-20";"11:00";"2023-01-20";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, SODAS conference room 1.2.26";"SODAS Lecture with Ro'ee Levy, Tel Aviv University School of Economics";"Title The Effects of Social Movements: Evidence from #MeToo Abstract Social movements are associated with large societal changes, but evidence of their causal effects is limited. We study the effect of the MeToo movement on reporting sex crimes to the police. We construct a new dataset of crimes reported in 31 OECD countries and employ a triple-difference strategy between crime types, across countries, and over time. The movement increased the reporting of sex crimes by 10%. Using rich US data, we find that in contrast to a common criticism of the movement, the effect is similar across socioeconomic groups, and that the movement also increased arrests for sexual assault. The increased reporting reflects a higher propensity to report sex crimes and not an increase in crime incidence. The mechanism most consistent with our findings is that victims perceive sexual misconduct to be a more serious problem following the movement. Our results demonstrate that social movements can rapidly and persistently affect high-stakes decisions. Link to paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3496903 Bio Ro'ee Levy is an assistant professor at the Tel Aviv University School of Economics. Before joining Tel Aviv University, Ro'ee visited MIT as a post-doc and received his Ph.D. from Yale University. He is an Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) affiliated professor and an affiliate of the SSRC Digital Platforms Initiative. Ro'ee studies political economy and social media. He is interested in the forces shaping social norms, political attitudes, and policy preferences, and their subsequent influence on individual behavior. "
"Johan Sæverud, University of Copenhagen (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-20";"14:00";"2023-01-20";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Subjective Earnings Risk"" Abstract Earnings risk is in essence subjective. Yet, it is typically inferred from the cross sectional distribution of realized earnings growth observed in administrative data by making strong assumptions about homogeneity within groups of people. We collect new data using a custom survey designed to elicit subjective earnings expectations in order to characterize the actual nature of subjective earnings risk. The distinguishing feature of our survey instrument is that it elicits the entire subjective probability distribution over future earnings conditional on possible job transitions, i.e., whether people stay in their current job, quit or are laid-off. We create individual measures of overall earnings expectations by aggregating subjective probability distributions over future earnings across job transition states. By pooling individual data on subjective earnings expectations and comparing with the administrative data, we first show that the survey data is consistent with the cross sectional distribution of realized earnings growth that is observed in administrative data. We then turn to consider the subjective expectations and find that individual earnings risk inferred from administrative data is highly distorted: subjective earnings risk is on average far lower, and it is heterogeneous both within and across demographic groups. Furthermore, we document that overall subjective earnings risk is dominated by the job transition risk. We close the paper by showing how implied earnings expectations in a life cycle model of search and matching calibrated to administrative data on job transitions over-states how people actually perceive earnings risk. Our findings show that people tend to have more information about earnings risk than what current estimates of search and matching models imply. Overall, our results suggest that subjective risk has been massively overstated when inferred from data on realized earnings and job transitions. Contact person: Mette Ejrnæs"
"Hannah Zillessen, University of Oxford (Job Market Seminar) ";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-23";"11:00";"2023-01-23";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Uncertainty, Citizenship & Migrant Saving Choices"" Abstract In most Western countries, migrants hold significantly less wealth than natives. Migrants also face significantly more uncertainty about their future. This paper examines the central role of uncertainty over citizenship prospects and future location in explaining their saving choices. Exploiting quasi-experimental variation and panel data from Germany, I show that migrants with a right to citizenship save as much as comparable natives, while migrants without this right save 30% less. This unexplained gap is closed completely when migrants in the latter group gain access to citizenship. The effect is not driven by changes in resources, but rather willingness to save. While standard theory predicts that saving increases in uncertainty, I show that the effect can reverse if utility is state-dependent, malleable, or resources are not equally accessible across states. I build a life-cycle saving model with uncertain retirement location and heterogeneous country preferences. The model shows that agents can have a “preparatory saving motive” that decreases in uncertainty. I confirm the importance of this novel motive empirically, showing that migrants become significantly more likely to invest in illiquid assets if they gain certainty about their right to stay.Contact person: Mette Gørtz"
"Pauline Carry, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics  (Job Market Seminar) ";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-23";"14:00";"2023-01-23";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Effects of the Legal Minimum Working Time on Workers, Firms and the Labor Market"" Abstract This paper provides new evidence on how firms and workers adjust to a restriction on low-hour jobs. I exploit a unique reform introducing a minimum workweek of 24 hours in France in 2014 affecting 15% of jobs. Drawing on linked employer-employee data and an event study design, I find a firm-level reduction in the number of jobs and an increase in average hours per worker. Overall, total hours worked in the firm decreased significantly, showing imperfect substitutability between workers and hours. The effects differ by gender: part-time female workers were replaced by full-time male workers. Importantly, reduced-form evidence indicates the reallocation of workers from firms highly exposed to the policy to firms less exposed. To quantify the aggregate impact taking into account these effects, I build and estimate a search and matching model with heterogeneous workers and firms. I find that the minimum workweek destroyed 1% of jobs but no effect on total hours, due to positive general equilibrium effects. Finally, the gender gap in welfare increased by 3% because women were more affected by the direct negative employment effects and benefited less from reallocation effects. Contact person: Miriam Wüst"
"Florencia Airaudo, Universidad Carlos lll (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2023-01-26";"14:00";"2023-01-26";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Jobmarket seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Exit Strategies from Quantitative Easing: the role of the fiscal-monetary policy mix"" Abstract As a consequence of the policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis, central bank balance sheets, public debt, and liquidity increased in many developed economies. As the economies recover and inflation far exceeds the target, central banks face a challenge in how to manage their balance sheet. I study the macroeconomic effects of reducing the central bank balance sheet size, i.e., Quantitative Tightening (QT). I construct a Regime-Switching New Keynesian DSGE model calibrated to the US economy. The economy fluctuates between a monetary-led regime, a fiscally-led regime, and the zero lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate. The macroeconomic effects of QT crucially depend on the fiscal-monetary policy mix. In a monetary-led regime, QT effectively reduces inflation at the cost of increasing the government debt-to-GDP ratio. In contrast, unwinding the central bank balance sheet in a fiscally-led regime has little impact on inflation. The negative demand effect driven by QT is not enough to counteract the stimulative impact of negative real interest rates and fiscal stimulus. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Professor César A. Hidalgo";"DTU Compute, Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence & SODAS";"2023-02-09";"10:00";"2023-02-09";"13:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We are delighted to host Professor César A. Hidalgo (Universities of Toulouse, Manchester, and Harvard) in collaboration with DTU Compute and the Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence";"We are delighted to host Professor César A. Hidalgo (Universities of Toulouse, Manchester, and Harvard) in collaboration with DTU Compute and the Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence for this year's first talk in the DTU Compute series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Hidalgo is a celebrated scientist who has made several seminal works, ran his own lab at MIT between 2010 and 2019 before moving to Europe, founded a company and authored three books. Please join us for this event on February 9, 10am in Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140. TitleHow time, technology, and language impact collective memory and attention AbstractFrom writing to the web, humans have used communication technologies to enhance our collective memory. Yet, much of what was once popular is now forgotten. In this talk, I will present research exploring the roles played by time, language, and technologies on the dynamics of collective memory and attention. Using data on the attention received by biographies, scientific papers, songs, and movies, we will explore the universal decay of collective memory, the role played by languages in global fame, and the biases in attention and collective memory introduced by changes in technology. About César A. HidalgoCésar A. Hidalgo is a Chilean-Spanish-American scholar known for his many contributions to economic complexity, data visualization, and applied artificial intelligence. Hidalgo leads the Center for Collective Learning at the Artificial and Natural Intelligence Institute (ANITI) of the University of Toulouse. He is also an Honorary Professor at the University of Manchester and a Visiting Professor at Harvard's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences. Between 2010 and 2019 Hidalgo led MIT’s Collective Learning group. Prior to working at MIT, Hidalgo was a research fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. Hidalgo is also a founder of Datawheel, an award-winning company specializing in the creation of data distribution and visualization systems. He holds a Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Notre Dame and a Bachelor's in Physics from Universidad Católica de Chile. His contributions have been recognized with numerous awards, including the 2018 Lagrange Prize and three Webby Awards. He is also the author of three books: Why Information Grows (Basic Books, 2015), The Atlas of Economic Complexity (MIT Press, 2014), and How Humans Judge Machines (MIT Press, 2021). Suggested readingsCandia, Cristian, et al. ""The universal decay of collective memory and attention."" Nature human behaviour (2019) Ronen, Shahar, et al. ""Links that speak: The global language network and its association with global fame."" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014) Jara-Figueroa, C., Amy Z. Yu, and César A. Hidalgo. ""How the medium shapes the message: Printing and the rise of the arts and sciences."" PloS one (2019) Yu, Amy Zhao, et al. ""Pantheon 1.0, a manually verified dataset of globally famous biographies."" Scientific data 3.1 (2016) The Predicted HumanBeing human in 2023 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare, algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. The series is arranged with generous support by the Villum Foundation and the Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence."
"SODAS Data Discussion 10 February 2023";"SODAS";"2023-02-10";"11:00";"2023-02-10";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"Data Discussion with Natalia Umansky and Jeremy Spater";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Natalia Umansky, University of Zurich Title: Spreading like wildfire: The securitization of the Amazon rainforest fires on Twitter Abstract: As a tool of political communication and information diffusion, social media has transformed the process of securitization, allowing (in)security messages to spread and scale up rapidly. Focusing on the case of the Amazon rainforest fires in 2019, this article seeks to answer two questions: How does securitization spread in online networks? And who are the actors that contribute to the diffusion of security messages? To explore this puzzle, the study develops a dictionary of query terms and performs a full-archive search to collect tweets posted between June and October 2019 and reconstruct the communication network of over three million users. Drawing from theories of online activism and research on information diffusion in networks, the study uses both the structure of the Twitter network and the dynamics of activity in message exchange to identify four types of users and explore their roles in the spread of the message. The findings shed new light on the ways in which social media facilitates the definition of security problems and provide empirical evidence of the prominent position of influence taken by lay actors in the process of securitization. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenter: Jeremy Spater, Department of Political Science, University of Oslo Title: Measuring Segregation and Individual Outgroup Exposure: The k-Nearest-Neighbors Metric Abstract: What is the connection between physical space and interpersonal interaction? This question is of interest for understanding, among other things, how inter-group segregation affects ethnic conflict. We explore this question using geocoded network data and simulations. We develop two metrics – one of individual outgroup exposure, and one of area-level aggregate segregation – based on geocoded individual locations. Drawing on an original network census, we demonstrate that our exposure metric, the k-nearest-neighbors score, accurately reflects social contact, which conditions intergroup relations. Moreover, we find that this exposure metric is a better proxy for social contact than two current measures. Next, we demonstrate that the segregation metric, the mean of the k-nearest-neighbors score, is an accurate measure of aggregate residential segregation. We use a simulation approach to demonstrate that the proposed aggregate segregation metric can more accurately discriminate between segregated and integrated areas than two commonly-used existing metrics. Finally, we apply exponential random graph models (ERGM) to the network data to explore how different dimensions of interpersonal contact -- which we characterize along social, economic, and political dimensions -- vary differently across space. The results have implications for how changing residential patterns are likely to impact prospects for intergroup cooperation along the various dimensions."
"Gustavo de Souza, Chicago FED";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-02-15";"14:15";"2023-02-15";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Fiscal Consequences of Active Labour Market Policies: The Case of Quota for Disabled Workers"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Fiscal Consequences of Active Labour Market Policies: The Case of Quota for Disabled Workers"" Abstract Expenditure with disability insurance has been on the rise in all developed countries. To reduce disability insurance expenditure, the Brazilian government mandated firms with more than 100 workers to have from 2% to 5% of their labor force filled by disabled workers. In this paper I ask: What is the effect of disabled workers' quota on the government's revenue and disabled insurance expenditure? I start with a model of labor force participation with disabled workers. Disabled workers have higher labor supply disutility, lower productivity, and receive disability insurance if not working. I show on the model that the relative productivity of disabled workers can be identified by the effect of the quota on firms while the disutility of disabled workers can be identified by the aggregate effect of the quota on wages. I use administrative data on inspections of the disabled quota to identify how hiring disabled workers affected firms and estimate the productivity of disabled workers. As a response to the inspection, firms reduce their growth rate and wages, even of non-disabled employees. Using regional variation to the disability quota, I also find that the quota increased the wage of disabled workers by 4.1% and labor force participation by 16.5%. From these results, the fiscal efficiency of this policy is cast in doubt. It reduced costs with disability insurance but also reduced revenue from payroll taxes. Contact person: John Vincent Kramer"
"Katinka Holtsmark, University of Oslo";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-02-16";"13:00";"2023-02-16";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Greening Oil: Optimal Extraction During the Transition from Coal to Renewables"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Greening Oil: Optimal Extraction During the Transition from Coal to Renewables"" Abstract What is the optimal and climate-friendly usage of oil during the green transition? In the short term, more oil can replace coal. For the longer term, however, oil extraction should be reduced to motivate investments in renewables. The difference leads to a time inconsistency problem: If a climate-friendly coalition of oil producers cannot commit to the long-term decline, the attempt to replace coal will be anticipated and investments in renewables will be reduced. In this case, the coalition can do more harm than good. To mitigate this problem, the oil producers must tax or reduce investments in the capacity to extract oil even more than they would have done under commitment. Contact persons: Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen and Frikk Nesje."
"Talk with James Evans: Designing Diversity for Sustained Innovation";"SODAS & the Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence ";"2023-02-23";"10:30";"2023-02-23";"12:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We at SODAS are very exited to welcome James Evans, Max Palevksy Professor of Sociology, to give this very interesting talk on ""Designing Diversity for Sustained Innovation"" ";"Title Designing Diversity for Sustained Innovation Abstract The wisdom of crowds hinges on the independence and diversity of their members’ information and approach. Here I explore how the wisdom of scientific, technological, business, and civic crowds for sustained discovery, invention, and cooperation operate through a process of collective abduction wherein unexpected findings or conflicts stimulate innovators to forge new insights to make the surprising unsurprising. Drawing on tens of millions of research papers and patents across the life sciences, physical sciences and inventions, as also interactions between diverse collaborating groups, I show that surprising designs and discoveries are the best predictor of outsized success and that surprising advances systematically emerge across, rather than within researchers or teams; most commonly when innovators from one field surprisingly publish or share problem-solving results to an audience in a distant and diverse other. This relates to other research I summarize that shows how across innovators, teams and fields, connection and conformity is associated with reduced replication and impeded innovation. Using these principles, I simulate processes of knowledge search to demonstrate the relationship between crowded fields and constrained collective inferences, and I illustrate how inverting the traditional approach to artificial intelligence approach, to avoid rather than mimic human search, enables the design of diversity that systematically violates established field boundaries and is associated with marked success of predicted innovations. I conclude with a discussion of prospects and challenges in a connected age for sustainable innovation through the design and preservation of difference in science and society. BioJames Evans is the Max Palevksy Professor of Sociology, Director of Knowledge Lab, and Founding Faculty Director of Computational Social Science at the University of Chicago and the Santa Fe Institute. Evans' research uses large-scale data, machine learning and generative models to understand how collectives think and what they know. This involves inquiry into the emergence of ideas, shared patterns of reasoning, and processes of attention, communication, agreement, and certainty. Thinking and knowing collectives like science, Wikipedia or the Web involve complex networks of diverse human and machine intelligences, collaborating and competing to achieve overlapping aims. Evans' work connects the interaction of these agents with the knowledge they produce and its value for themselves and the system. Evans designs observatories for understanding that fuse data from text, images and other sensors with results from interactive crowd sourcing and online experiments. Much of Evans' work has investigated modern science and technology to identify collective biases, generate new leads taking these into account, and imagine alternative discovery regimes. He has identified R&D institutions that generate more and less novelty, precision, density and robustness. Evans also explores thinking and knowing in other domains ranging from political ideology and misinformation to popular culture. His work has been published in Nature, Science, PNAS, and many other top social and computer science "
"Phillip Heiler, Department of Economics and Business Economics - CREATES";"Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-02-23";"13:30";"2023-02-23";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 35 (Faculty Lounge 3rd Floor), 1353 Kbh K";"Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Causal Inference under Sample Selection and Missing Data: Co-teacher Intervention Effects on Adolescent Mental Health"" Abstract This paper is concerned with identification, estimation, and specification testing in causal inference problems when data is selective and/or missing. We leverage recent advances in the literature on graphical and counterfactual methods to provide a unifying framework to jointly study these issues. The approach integrates and connects to prominent model, identification, and testing strategies in the literature on missing data, causal machine learning, panel data analysis, and more. We demonstrate its utility in the context of identification and specification testing in sample selection models and field experiments with attrition. We provide a novel analysis of a large scale cluster-randomized control trial in grade 6 from Denmark using a combination of administrative and survey data. Results suggest that co-teachers provide an effective way of improving student’s internalizing behavior. Joint with: Helena Skyt Nielsen, Louise Beuchert and Simon Calmar Andersen Read more about Phillip Heiler Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard Sørensen"
"PhD defence on ""Research in the Era of Social Media""";"SODAS";"2023-02-24";"14:00";"2023-02-24";"18:00";"CSS 35.01.05";"SODAS PhD student Yangliu Fan will defend her dissertation ""Research in the Era of Social Media: Communities, Methodologies & Author Trajectories"" on Friday 24th February ";"SODAS PhD student Yangliu Fan will defend her dissertation ""Research in the Era of Social Media: Communities, Methodologies & Author Trajectories"" on Friday 24th February Title: RESEARCH IN THE ERA OF SOCIAL MEDIA: COMMUNITIES, METHODOLOGIES & AUTHOR TRAJECTORIESDate: 24 February at 14-18 CET Yangliu Fan's thesis explores the scientific system using tools from network science and natural language processing, with a specific focus on the social media data-based research community. By analyzing a curated dataset of 12,732 research articles using social media data, it sheds new light on the changes in intellectual structures, advancements in methodology, and the evolution of career trajectories. The findings of this thesis provide new insights into the impact of big social data on science and science studies. Besides, the thesis offers novel methods for enhancing bibliometric cluster analysis, interdisciplinarity analysis, method detection, and author mobility analysis. The defence takes place in CSS 35.01.05 and is followed by a reception in CSS 1.1.12. Online participation is possible via zoom: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/65418564599?pwd=M0p5Y2djVjcya0NKYVRlcFQxNEtNdz09 (passcode: 182408)."
"Matthias Meier, University of Mannheim";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-02-27";"14:15";"2023-02-27";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Government Spending"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Government Spending"" Abstract We propose an identification design for the effects of systematic monetary policy which is based on (i) a narrative account of the FOMC members' policy preferences, and (ii) a novel instrument that exploits the FOMC's mechanical rotation of voting rights. Using our identification design, we estimate the causal effects of systematic monetary policy for the transmission of government spending shocks. We find that the fiscal spending multiplier is significantly above one when the FOMC is dovish, whereas the multiplier can be negative under a hawkish FOMC. Joint with Lukas Hack and Klodiana Istrefi. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Hanna Berkel defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-03-03";"15:00";"2023-03-03";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is 'Informality and Firms Essays in Development Economics'.";"Candidate Hanna Berkel, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title Informality and Firms Essays in Development Economics Supervisors Professor Finn TarpProfessor John Rand Assessment Committee Professor Thomas Markussen Department of Economics Associate Professor Simon Quinn, University of Oxford Senior Lecturer Smriti Sharma Newcastle University Summary This PhD dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters in the field of development economics. They examine informal manufacturing firms in Mozambique and Myanmar. Chapter 1: Informality and Firm Performance in Myanmar – with Finn TarpUsing a unique panel survey of enterprises, we examine the relationship between four categories of formalization and firm productivity. We carry out one- and twostep productivity estimations whose robustness we check with matching and doubly robust estimators. The only formalization category that appears to be significantly associated with productivity is tax formalization, i.e. a firm’s decision to pay taxes. This positive association only holds for firms that were already more productive and bigger before formalizing than other informal firms. The reason for the insignificanceof the remaining three categories is likely to be the insignificant association between formalization and potential benefits of formalization, such as more access to credit, employees, and investments. High taxes and fees linked to formalization seem to outweigh the few to non-existent intermediate benefits of formalization. Chapter 2: Firm Formality. Multi-method evidence from MozambiqueThis study examines the effects of formality on firms in Mozambique, and explains why these effects do or do not exist. Considering the complex reality in which firms operate, I construct an informality index. My methodology relies on a series of standard econometric estimations of the effects of formality, complemented by innovative qualitative evidence. It emerges that bigger firms are the ones to reap the benefits of formality, while smaller firms face a complex combination of challenges. This implies that they are often unable to benefit from formality. Challenges includethe many additional requirements besides having a formality status in itself. Chapter 3: Local governance quality and law compliance: The case of Mozambican firms – with Christian Estmann and John RandIn sub-Saharan Africa, many micro and small enterprises do not (or at least only partially) comply with official rules and regulations. Given that low compliance rates impede economic growth and human development, it is essential to identify mechanisms that can help improve abidance with laws. This paper investigates how the quality of governance (defined as comprising three dimensions: transparency, legal security and infrastructure quality) is related to firm-level compliance with business laws and regulations in the case of Mozambique. We utilise firms’ subjective perceptions of governance quality and their self-reported law compliance over time to study the governance–compliance nexus, taking into account unobserved firm-level heterogeneity. Furthermore, we examine whether political legitimacy acts as a mediator or a moderator between governance and compliance. Our results suggest that perceived improvements in transparency positively affect firms’ compliance with existing legislation. Requests from provincial government officials for firms to comment on local regulations seem to be especially important for law abidance. We find that legitimacy is independently associated with compliance, but does not seem to mediate or moderate the quality of governance. Overall, our results suggest that, even in one of the least developed and non-democratic parts of the world, active participation in political processes is positively associated with law compliance. Chapter 4: Cash Grants and Firm Recovery after Natural Disasters: RCT Evidence from Mozambique – with Peter Fisker and Finn TarpIn March 2019, Cyclone Idai hit central Mozambique, causing widespread destruction. We aim to understand whether financial constraints hamper the recovery of micro enterprises in manufacturing after the cyclone. For this purpose, we provide cyclone-affected and unaffected enterprises with unconditional cash grants. We find that our cash grants had very small effects on firm financial outcomes. Our findings build on panel data sampled using a stratified adaptive cluster sampling approach in two urban settings where one (Beira) was more intensely affected by Cyclone Idaithan the other (Chimoio). While the effect of the cash grant was larger among more affected firms, the control group seems to have also recovered well, without special access to credit. En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan rekvireres her: Pia.Vestergaard@econ.ku.dk "
"Celine Poilly, Aix-Marseille University";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-03-06";"14:15";"2023-03-06";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty"" Abstract This paper studies trade policy uncertainty at the regional level. First, we propose an empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty, based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and the sectoral composition of imports in US states. We show that a region which is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a drop in real output and employment, relative to the average US state. Then, we build a regional open economy model to investigate the transmission channels of trade policy uncertainty shocks. In the presence of nominal rigidities, the interaction of households' precautionary savings and monopolists' precautionary pricing explains the magnitude of the measured recessionary effects of increased trade policy uncertainty. Our model highlights the amplification of these effects in regions most integrated in international trade through a higher import share and export intensity. Joint with Fabien Tripier. Contact person: John Vincent Kramer"
"CANCELLED! Dmitry Mukhin, London School of Economics";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-03-27";"14:15";"2023-03-27";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Optimal Exchange Rate Policy"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Optimal Exchange Rate Policy"" Abstract We develop a general policy analysis framework that features nominal rigidities and financial frictions with endogenous PPP and UIP deviations. The goal of the optimal policy is to balance output gap stabilization and international risk sharing using a mix of monetary policy and FX interventions. The nominal exchange rate plays a dual role. First, it allows for the real exchange rate adjustments when prices are sticky, which are necessary to close the output gap. Monetary policy can eliminate the output gap, but this generally requires a volatile nominal exchange rate. Volatility in the nominal exchange rate, in turn, limits the extent of international risk sharing in the financial market with risk averse intermediaries. Optimal monetary policy closes the output gap, while optimal FX interventions eliminate UIP deviations. When the rst-best real exchange rate is stable, both goals can be achieved by a xed exchange rate policy — an open-economy divine coincidence. Generally, this is not the case, and the optimal policy requires a managed peg by means of a combination of monetary policy and FX interventions, without requiring the use of capital controls. We explore various constrained optimal policies, when either monetary policy or FX interventions are restricted, and characterize the possibility of central bank’s income gains and losses from FX interventions. Joint with Oleg Itskhoki Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"Joshua Farley, University of Vermont";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-03-30";"14:00";"2023-03-30";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Ecological versus Environmental Economics – Where Do We Stand?"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Ecological versus Environmental Economics – Where Do We Stand?"" Abstract Ecological Economics is concerned with determining the environmentally sustainable material scale of the economy and ensuring a fair and efficient allocation of economic resources. Ecological Economics sees the economy as being embedded in the larger Earth system and the individual as being embedded in society. It emphasizes the importance of the laws of thermodynamics for economic analysis and draws on insights from the science of ecology as well as from other natural and social sciences. Joshua Farley is the co-author with Herman Daly of a leading textbook on Ecological Economics. In this lecture Professor Farley will lay out the key principles and objectives of Ecological Economics and explain where it differs from and where it overlaps with mainstream Environmental Economics. Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"SODAS Lecture: Estimating the replicability of research findings in psychology - From manuscript text";"SODAS";"2023-03-31";"11:00";"2023-03-31";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"SODAS Lecture with Dr. Youyou Wu, University College London";"Title: Estimating the replicability of research findings in psychology - From manuscript text. Abstract: The replication crisis is one of the biggest headaches in many empirical disciplines and particularly in Psychology. Scholars are eager to distinguish robust findings from irreplicable ones. Our research team conducted the first discipline-wide replication census. We trained a machine learning model to estimate a paper’s likelihood of replication from the text in its manuscript. The model was applied to more than 14,000 papers, covering nearly all papers published in six top-tier Psychology journals over the past 20 years. The algorithm-estimated replicability could be used to prioritise expensive manual replications of certain studies, accelerating the goal of (re)building a solid literature base. Bio: Dr Youyou Wu is an Assistant Professor at University College London (UCL), Faculty of Education and Society (IOE), Department of Psychology and Human Development. She has a PhD degree in Psychology from the University of Cambridge. Dr Wu mainly studies personality expression in the digital space, using computational methods like machine learning and natural language processing. Her most prominent work shows that personalities inferred from people’s Facebook profiles are more accurate than judgements made by friends. As a psychologist of this generation, she is also drawn to metascience and methodology, and particularly reproducibility. She is interested in predicting replication outcomes before an actual replication takes place. Her work has appeared in journals like PNAS, Nature Communications, and Psychological Science. Her research has been covered by global outlets like BBC, New York Times, and the Economist. "
"PhD defence on ""Biases in Natural Language Processing""";"SODAS";"2023-03-31";"15:30";"2023-03-31";"18:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, room 1.1.02";"SODAS PhD student Terne Sasha Thorn Jakobsen will defend her dissertation ""Biases in Natural Language Processing"" on Friday 31st March 15.30-18.30 CET";"SODAS PhD student Terne Sasha Thorn Jakobsen will defend her dissertation ""Biases in Natural Language Processing"" on Friday 31st March 15.30-18.30 CET Title: Biases in Natural Language Processing Date: 31st March at 15.30-18.30 CET Zoom-link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64782787189?pwd=L1lJQXV1eUJ0d0dRWDFzM0VNK0FHUT09 Abstract: ”In recent years, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing (NLP) systems have been found to discriminate against minority groups in many aspects, albeit showing high performance on popular benchmarks. The thesis examines challenges of evaluation and data collection protocols that may result in biased systems and overestimated real-world performance. We studied spurious correlations in an Argument Mining system that aimed to recognise arguments (and generalise) across several debating topics but succeeded to do so due to spurious correlations, that were not reflected through standard evaluation protocols. We then re-annotated data for this same task with four annotation guidelines and by annotators of different gender identities and political beliefs, finding indications of socio-demographic annotator bias, the extend to which depended on the annotation guidelines. Following these findings, we experimented with a change in the annotation guideline, aiming to reduce annotator bias, and finding this to be a highly complex aim. Through the experiments, we gained new perspectives on annotator bias and we propose a method for recognising individual annotators’ biases without the need for large sample sizes. We extended the knowledge of annotator bias phenomena to popular model explainability methods, recognising that current approaches to benchmarking model explanations – that are often used to detect spurious correlations and unfair patterns – might hold some of the same issues of bias. We re-annotated data for sentiment classification and common-sense reasoning tasks, with socio-demographically diverse annotator information, and present preliminary results indicating that the current benchmarking approach disfavours minority groups. Lastly, since peer-review for NLP conferences has been criticised for its arbitrariness and biases, we conducted surveys of authors’, reviewers’ and editors’ issues and ideals, and we provide actionable recommendations for improving peer-review. Collectively, these studies bring new insights to the role of bias in text data for NLP, and they contribute with new data that enable further research of bias and fairness of NLP systems, of explainability methods and of conference peer-review.” The defence takes place in CSS 1.1.02 and is followed by a reception in CSS 1.1.12."
"Luigi Bocola, Stanford University";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-04-03";"14:15";"2023-04-03";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Macroeconomics of Trade Credit"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Macroeconomics of Trade Credit"" Abstract In most countries, suppliers of intermediate goods and services are also the main providers of short-term financing to firms. This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of these financial links. In our model, trade credit is the outcome of a long-term contract between firms linked in the production process, and it is sustained in equilibrium by reputation forces as customers lose the relationship with their suppliers in case of a default. These financial links give rise to a credit multiplier: suppliers can enforce repayment of these IOUs, and they can discount these bills with banks to obtain liquidity. This process can either dampen or amplify the output effects of financial shocks, depending on the borrowing capacity of suppliers. Using Italian data, we find that the credit multiplier is sizable and show that trade credit amplified the output costs of the Great Recession by 45%. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"SODAS Data Discussion 14 April 2023";"SODAS";"2023-04-14";"11:00";"2023-04-14";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"Data Discussion with Jonas L. Juul and Louis Boucherie";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Louis Boucherie, PhD student at the Technical University of Denmark and SODAS affiliate Title: To be or not to bereal Abstract: BeReal is an innovative social media application that captures authentic, spontaneous moments in users' daily lives through geolocated photos and selfies. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of how BeReal operates, analyze the rich dataset generated by its user base, and discuss the potential applications of this data in various fields. BeReal works by sending a notification at a random time of the day, requesting users to take a photo of their surroundings and a selfie. These images, accompanied by geolocation data, are then shared with friends and followers on the platform. The idea is that the moments captured are genuine and unfiltered, offering a unique glimpse into users' lives. By analyzing BeReal's data, we can uncover fascinating patterns and trends related to human behavior. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenter: Jonas L. Juul, Carlsberg Fellow postdoc at the Technical University of Denmark and SODAS affiliate Title: The dynamics of writing style in scientific publishing Abstract: When two scientists write a paper together, does their joint writing style represent some average of their individual writing styles? Do some scientists impact the future writing style of their collaborators? In what way? Writing style can be quantified using statistical methods from stylometry. One important application of stylometry is author attribution: Determining the most likely author of an anonymous text. Whereas many stylometric methods have been developed to match texts with likely authors, little is known about the writing style in collaborations. Using a corpus of millions of scientific abstracts, their authors and meta data about papers and authors, we seek to quantify the dynamics of writing style in scientific publishing. Ideas for questions, methods and further data is much appreciated.Joint work in progress with Jon Kleinberg, Cornell University."
"Jonathan Leisner defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-04-14";"14:00";"2023-04-14";"16:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is ""Essays in Environ mental Economics: Technology, Trade and the Labour Market"".";"Candidate Jonathan Leisner, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title Essays in Environ mental Economics: Technology, Trade and the Labour Market Supervisors Professor Jakob Roland MunchProfessor Peter Birch Sørensen Assessment Committee Professor Bertel Schjerning Department of Economics Associate Professor Joel Rodrigue Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University Associate Professor Jevan Cherniwchan Carleton University, Department of Economics Summary The dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters that answer research questions within the field of environmental economics, and more specifically, climate change economics. As the title of the thesis suggests, the research questions are quite distinct Chapter one is purely methodological, chapter two and three are purely empirical and chapter four is somewhere in-between. They all have a common goal however: Provide answers to questions that are policy relevant within the sphere of climate change economics. The breadth of the questions is mirrored in the breadth of the methods applied: The first chapter develops a method for incorporating engineering data on technologies in computable general equilibrium models. The second chapter uses instrumental variables regressions from the international trade literature to estimate causal effects using firmlevel micro data. The third chapter presents descriptive statistics on emissions, firms and workers across seven European countries. Finally, the fourth chapter extends a dynamic discrete choice general equilibrium model, performs a structural estimation using linked worker-firm data and simulates a counterfactual policy experiment where a sector-specific greenhouse gas tax gradually increases. En elektronisk kopi af afhandlingen kan rekvireres her: Pia.Vestergaard@econ.ku.dk "
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Professor Shannon Vallor";"DTU Compute, Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence & SODAS";"2023-04-17";"10:00";"";"";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We are delighted to host Professor Shannon Vallor (University of Edinburgh) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human in collaboration with DTU Compute and the Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence";"We are delighted to host Professor Shannon Vallor (University of Edinburgh) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Vallor's research explores the philosophy and ethics of emerging science and technologies, not least Artificial Intelligence. Please join us for this event on April 17, 10am in Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140.TitleThe Machine Mirror: Human Prediction and Reflection in AIAbstract Would you ever try to chart your path up a dangerous, unfamiliar mountain while looking in a mirror facing behind you? Today’s AI technologies are marketed as the key to predicting and navigating humanity’s uncertain future in a time of crisis. Yet are these new tools clear windows into our future, or are they looking-glass reflections of our past? Can they ever show us what we and our societies can become, where we might go anew, or what is possible for humanity to accomplish together for the first time? In the face of growing planetary and civilizational challenges that require letting go of the unsustainable ways of the past, humanity’s most urgent task is to embrace and renew our capacities for self-creation, moral imagination and above all, wisdom. AI too has a vital role to play in that task – if we have the courage to reclaim, rethink and rebuild these technologies in the name of humane futures.About Shannon VallorShannon Vallor's research investigates how human character is being transformed by rapid advances in artificial intelligence, robotics, new social media, surveillance, and biomedical technologies. She holds the Baillie Gifford Chair in the Ethics of Data and Artificial Intelligence at the University of Edinburgh's Edinburgh Futures Institute, where she directs the Centre for Technomoral Futures. She is also appointed as Professor in Philosophy. Before coming to University of Edinburgh, Vallor was the William J. Rewak Professor at the Department of Philosophy, Santa Clara University in Silicon Valley and also served as an AI ethicist and visiting research scientist at Google. Shannon Vallor is currently working on a new book entitled The AI Mirror: Rebuilding Humanity in an Age of Machine Thinking.The Predicted HumanBeing human in 2023 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare, algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. The series is arranged with generous support by the Villum Foundation and the Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence."
"Claire Montialoux, UC Berkeley";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-04-18";"13:15";"2023-04-18";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Racial Inequality, Minimum Wage Spillovers, and the Informal Sector"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Racial Inequality, Minimum Wage Spillovers, and the Informal Sector"" Abstract This paper studies how a national minimum wage affects wages, and in particular, racial earnings disparities in a middle-income country with a large informal sector. Our context is the Brazilian economy, characterized by persistently large racial disparities and the availability of detailed labor force surveys and administrative matched employer-employee data with information on race. We analyze the effect of large increases in the minimum wage that occurred between 1999 and 2009. Using a variety of research designs and identification strategies, we obtain three main findings. First, the increase in the minimum wage erased the racial earnings gap up to the 10th percentile of the national wage distribution and up to the 30th percentile in the lowest wage region, the Northeast. Second, there is no evidence of significant reallocation of workers from the formal sector to the informal sector. This can be explained by the fact that the minimum wage is de-facto binding in the informal sector (excluding agriculture, domestic workers, and the self-employed). Third, we do not find evidence of significant dis-employment effects, or of white-nonwhite labor-labor substitution. As a result, the minimum wage increases of the 2000s led to a large decline in the economy-wide racial income gap in Brazil. Contact person: Daphné Jocelyne Skandalis"
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Joshua Blumenstock ";"DTU Compute, Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence & SODAS";"2023-04-19";"13:30";"2023-04-19";"15:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We are delighted to host Joshua Blumenstock (UC Berkeley) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. His research combines econometrics, machine learning and network science to explore the application of predictive algorithms for improving social programs, the spread of information online and much more.";"We are delighted to host Joshua Blumenstock (UC Berkeley) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. His research combines econometrics, machine learning and network science to explore the application of predictive algorithms for improving social programs, the spread of information online and much more. Please join us for this event on April 19 at 1330-1500 in Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140.TitleTargeting Social Assistance with Machine Learning Abstract Targeting is a central challenge in the design of anti-poverty programs: given available data, how does one rapidly identify the individuals and families with the greatest need? Here we show that machine learning, applied to non-traditional data from satellites and mobile phones, can improve the targeting of anti-poverty programs. Our analysis is based on data from three field-based projects -- in Togo, Afghanistan, and Kenya -- that illustrate the promise, as well as some of the potential pitfalls, of this new approach to targeting. Collectively, the results highlight the potential for new data sources to improve humanitarian response efforts, particularly in crisis settings when traditional data are missing or out of date. About Joshua BlumenstockHe is a Chancellor’s Associate Professor at the U.C. Berkeley School of Information and the Goldman School of Public Policy. He is the Co-director of the Global Policy Lab and the Center for Effective Global Action. Blumenstock does research at the intersection of machine learning and empirical economics, with a focus on how novel data can better address the needs of poor and marginalized people around the world. He has a Ph.D. in Information Science and a M.A. in Economics from U.C. Berkeley, and Bachelor’s degrees in Computer Science and Physics from Wesleyan University. He is a recipient of awards including the NSF CAREER award, the Intel Faculty Early Career Honor, and the U.C. Berkeley Chancellor's Award for Public Service. His work has appeared in general interest journals including Science, Nature, and PNAS, as well as top economics journals (e.g., AER) and computer science conferences (e.g., ICML, KDD, AAAI, WWW, CHI)."
"SODAS Lecture: Immigration and Social Distance - Evidence  from Newspapers during the Age of Mass Migration";"SODAS";"2023-04-21";"11:00";"2023-04-21";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"SODAS lecture with Dr. Gloria Gennaro, University College London";"Title: Immigration and Social Distance: Evidence from Newspapers during the Age of Mass Migration Abstract: A constant of human history is the migration of peoples in search of a better future. In destination countries, these new arrivals come into contact with both the host population as well as already established immigrant communities. How does the arrival of new immigrants affect the perception of outgroup distance among the native majority group? And do new arrivals also change the perceived distance between the host population and existing immigrant groups? We address these questions in the context of the Age of Mass Migration (1860-1920), a period during which sizeable and diverse groups of migrants arrived on U.S. shores. Applying advanced computational linguistics techniques to a newly processed corpus of over 1.8 million newspaper issues (9 million pages) published by 3,675 local outlets in that period, we present a novel text-based measure of perceived socio-cultural distance between U.S.-born natives and 32 immigrant groups. For each mention of an immigrant group, we compute a distance measure that captures whether the group's framing more closely resembles contexts used when portraying immigrants, rather than natives. We use this time- and county-varying outcome to analyse the short- and medium-term effects of immigration inflows on local perceptions of socio-cultural distance toward the arriving and existing immigrant groups. Bio: Gloria Gennaro is an Assistant Professor in Public Policy and Data Science at University College London. Previously she was a postdoctoral fellow at the Public Policy Group and Immigration Policy Lab in Zurich. She holds a Ph.D. in Social and Political Sciences from Bocconi University. Her research in comparative political economy explores political behaviour in democratic societies, using causal inference and computational social science."
"(I-MPC) International - Macro People of Copenhagen (Spring 2023)";"Department of Economics and Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI), University of Copenhagen.";"2023-04-21";"13:30";"2023-04-21";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"Macroeconomics Workshop, arranged by Department of Economics and Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI), University of Copenhagen.";"Program: 13:30 - 14:30 - Morten Ravn (UCL), ""Financial Frictions: Micro vs. Macro Volatility""14:30 - 14:45 - Coffee break14:45 - 15:45 - Silvia Miranda-Agrippino (Bank of England), “The Aggregate Consequences of Overreaction”15:45 - 16:00 - Coffee break16:00 - 17:00 - Christian Bayer (Bonn), “Das Sein bestimmt das Bewußtsein: Attitudes towards fiscal policy according to HANK2” Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl (+45 30 25 46 92)."
"Talk Series: Quantum meets society #1";"SODAS, Centre for Military Studies & Department of Political Science in collaboration with UCPH Quantum Hub ";"2023-04-26";"08:30";"";"10:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"What really happens when quantum technologies meet society? In this talk series, quantum scientists and social scientists from the University of Copenhagen meet to explore potentials, challenges, and missing links in the intersection of quantum technologies and social sciences. In the first talk of the series, we explore quantum technology in a societal context; What exactly is quantum? And how can we expect society to relate to the new quantum technologies?";"This talk is hosted in Danish. Quantum revolution 2.0 is looming, and it could change our society in ways we don't understand. Quantum computers, quantum mechanics and quantum communication are often presented as solutions to society's biggest challenges - green transition, health, security, etc. Currently, physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists are working intensively to develop the world's first fully functional quantum computer. The potential is enormous, but what actually happens when quantum technology meets society? What is quantum, and what will the relationship between quantum technology, people and societies be like? How will it affect international politics and security? And can we even regulate a limitless and abstract quantum technology? In this conversation series, quantum scientists and social scientists from the University of Copenhagen meet to explore potentials, challenges and missing links in intersection between quantum technology and society. The format is a curious armchair conversation - and there will be no such thing as ""stupid questions"". The talk of the day How does society understand and engage with quantum technology? Matthias Christandl (professor of mathematics and quantum information) meets Rebecca Adler-Nissen (professor of international politics). In the first talk of the series, we explore quantum technology in a societal context; What exactly is quantum? And how can we expect society to relate to the new quantum technologies? Introduction by Vice President David Dreyer Lassen. Registration is required: Register here We offer coffee and croissants from 8.30-8.45. Kristian Søby Kristensen, head of the Center for Military Studies and Rebecca Adler-Nissen, director of strategic partnerships, Social Data Science (SODAS), will introduce the conversation. The talk series is organized by SODAS, Center for Military Studies & the Department of Political Science in collaboration with the UCPH Quantum Hub. Matthias Christandl is a Professor at the Department of Mathematical Sciences (University of Copenhagen), Center Leader of the Quantum for Life Center funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation and co-PI of the VILLUM Foundation research centre QMATH, the Centre for the Mathematics of Quantum Theory. He is also head of UCPH Quantum Hub, a cross-departmental and cross-faculty collaborative initiative. Rebecca Adler-Nissen Is a researcher in international politics, diplomacy, digital technologies and the EU. Currently focusing on the relationship between confidential international negotiations, the public and social media. Rebecca Adler-Nissen leads the ERC-funded research project DIPLOFACE and the research group Digital Disinformation, which is supported by the Carlsberg Foundation. She is director of strategic partnerships at Social Data Science (SODAS) at the Faculty of Social Sciences and is the recipient of the EliteForsk award in 2019. "
"Talk with Vito Latora: Dynamical processes in systems with higher order interactions";"SODAS, the Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence, NERDS Group at IT University of Copenhagen";"2023-04-27";"15:00";"";"";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"Complex networks have been successfully used to describe the spread of diseases in populations of interacting individuals. Professor Vito Latora will discuss the use and implications of such systems with higher order interactions.";"Title Dynamical Processes in systems with higher order interactions. Abstract Complex networks have been successfully used to describe the spread of diseases in populations of interacting individuals. Conversely, pairwise interactions are often not enough to characterise social contagion processes, such as the formation of opinions or the adoption of novelties in social systems, all cases where more complex mechanisms of influence and reinforcement are at work. I will first present a higher-order model of social contagion in which a social system is represented by a simplicial complex and contagion can occur through interactions in groups of different sizes [1]. The model shows the emergence of a discontinuous phase transition, a novel phenomenon induced by the presence of higher-order interactions, and of a bistable region where healthy and endemic states co-exist. This result can have practical implications, because it can help explaining why critical masses are required to initiate social changes. I will then discuss other examples of significant effects of higher-order interactions in social processes, showing how interactions in groups of different sizes affects the evolution of cooperation [2,3] or the stability of synchronised states in simplicial complexes of coupled dynamical systems [4] Online participation If you are unable to join the lecture physically you can participate online by following this zoom-link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/64030382673?pwd=dHc4Ym1IbW8zdnYyQlljak1iTkNXdz09 Passcode: 487301. Bio Vito Latora is Professor of Applied Mathematics, Chair of Complex Systems and Head of the Complex Systems and Networks Group at the School of Mathematical Sciences of Queen Mary University of London. He is also Professor of Theoretical Physics at the University of Catania and External Faculty of the Complexity Science Hub of Vienna. His research deals with several aspects of complex systems, from fundamental aspects of their structure and dynamics to interdisciplinary applications integrating physics and mathematics with social and biological sciences. Vito's recent interests are in modelling dynamical processes on multiplex and temporal networks, and on higher-order structures, such as simplicial complexes and hypergraphs. Vito is currently collaborating with neuroscientists and anthropologists to understanding the network components of creativity, innovation and success. References [1] Lacopini, L., Petri, G., Barrat, A. & Latora, V. 2019. ""Simplicial models of social contagion"". Nat Commun 10, 2485. DOi: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10431-6 [2] Alvarez-Rodriguez, U., Battiston, F., de Arruda, G.F. et al. 2021. ""Evolutionary dynamics of higher-order interactions in social networks"". Nat Hum Behav 5, 586–595. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-01024-1 [3] Civilini, A., Sadakar O., Battiston F. et al. 2023. ""Explosive cooperation in social dilemmas on higher-order networks"". DOI: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2303.11475 [4] Gambuzza, L.V., Di Patti, F., Gallo, L. et al. 2021. ""Stability of synchronization in simplicial complexes"". Nat Commun 12, 1255. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21486-9"
"Inaugural Lecture: Professor Roberta Sinatra ";"SODAS";"2023-04-28";"14:00";"2023-04-28";"16:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K & SODAS Conference Room, Øster Farimagsgade 5A, building 1, first floor, room 1.1.12";"To celebrate her appointment as Professor at the Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science at the University of Copenhagen, Roberta Sinatra will give her inaugural lecture on 28th April at 14:00 PM, followed by a reception";"To celebrate her appointment as Professor at the Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science at the University of Copenhagen, Roberta Sinatra will give her inaugural lecture on 28th April, followed by a reception The inaugural lecture will take place at the Gothersgade Auditorium 1 (Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K) from 14.00 PM - 15.00 PM and will be followed be a reception from 15.00 - 16.00 at the SODAS Conference room (CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5A, building 1, first floor, room 1.1.12). The lecture and reception are open to all, and we hope to see many of you there! If you are unable to join the lecture physically you can participate online by following this zoom-link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/66997655464 Title:An interdisciplinary journey through Networks, Data, and SocietyAbstract: The emergence of computational social science has been made possible by the unprecedented availability of large and diverse datasets on various aspects of human activity, behavior, and knowledge, made feasible by the explosion of digital technologies and the internet. In this inaugural lecture, I will describe my research journey in computational social science, from my early studies in physics to my current work as a full professor at the University of Copenhagen. I will discuss how I have applied methods and tools from physics and computer science to study a wide range of social phenomena, and how my work has contributed to our understanding of human behavior and society. My research is motivated by the belief that computational methods can provide unique insights into the underlying mechanisms of social phenomena, and that interdisciplinary approaches can help bridge the gap between different fields of research. I will discuss how I have applied network science, machine learning, and statistics to study diverse topics, such as scientific collaboration, human mobility, and creativity. Throughout the talk, I will emphasize the interdisciplinary nature of my research, and highlight the challenges and opportunities that arise when applying computational methods to study social phenomena. I will also discuss some of the current and future directions of my research program, and the potential impact of computational social science on our understanding of human behavior and society. Bio:Roberta Sinatra is Professor in Computational Social Science at the University of Copenhagen, and holds visiting positions at IT University of Copenhagen (ITU), ISI Foundation (Turin, Italy) and Complexity Science Hub (Vienna, Austria). She co-founded the NEtwoRks, Data, and Society (NERDS) Research group at ITU and is a co-lead of the pioneer centre for AI in Copenhagen. Her research is at the forefront of network science, data science, and computational social science. Roberta did her BSc, MSc and PhD in Physics at the University of Catania, Italy. Her research has been published in top-tier venues like Nature and Science, and has been featured in The New York Times, Forbes, The Economist, The Guardian, The Washington Post, among other major media outlets. Her research has been awarded the Complex Systems Society Junior prize, the DPG Young Scientist Award for Socio- and Econophysics, and a Villum Young Investigator grant."
"Zeuthen Workshop on Child Health and Public Policy";"Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI)";"2023-05-03";"";"2023-05-04";"";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26: room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Professor Janet from Princeton University Currie will give three lectures on “Economics of Children”";"This year’s Zeuthen lecturer at the University of Copenhagen is Professor Janet Currie (Princeton University). Professor Currie will give three lectures on “Economics of Children” on 2-4 May 2023. In connection with the Zeuthen lectures, Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI) at the University of Copenhagen is organizing this workshop on “Child Health and Public Policy” on 3-4 May 2023. While the workshop takes place on 3-4 May, we encourage participants to arrive on May 2 and attend the first lecture by Professor Currie in the afternoon. Participation is free of charge and includes registration, lunch, refreshments, and a workshop dinner. Zeuthen Lecture & Workshop programme 2023 Have a look at the exciting program here. Call for papers We invite submission of papers for presentation at the workshop. Submissions by junior researchers are particularly encouraged. We welcome theoretical and empirical papers on the economics of children. Examples of suitable topics include: Child mental health, education, and productivity Pollution and child health Inequalities in child health Public policies to promote child health Important dates Submission of paper: 1 March 2023 Notification of acceptance: 27 March 2023 Registration: 7 April 2023 Submission of paper Please submit your paper via this form. Workshop registration for presenting participants Please register your participation in the workshop via this form. Workshop registration for non-presenting participants Please be aware that there is a limited number of seats for non-presenting participants. Unfortunately, we will not be able to accept everyone. After April 12, we will inform you about whether our capacity makes it possible that you can attend the workshop as a non-presenter. Please register your participation in the workshop via this form. "
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Johan Ugander";"SODAS, DTU Compute & Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence";"2023-05-04";"10:00";"2023-05-04";"12:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We are delighted to host Professor Johan Ugander (Stanford University) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Ugander's empirical and methodological work leverages the unique measurement opportunities created by the internet and digitization to study social networks and human behavior in previously unprecedented ways.";"We are delighted to host Professor Johan Ugander (Stanford University) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Ugander's empirical and methodological work leverages the unique measurement opportunities created by the internet and digitization to study social networks and human behavior in previously unprecedented ways.Please join us for this event on May 4, 10am in Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140.TitleHarvesting randomness to understand computational social systemsAbstractModern social systems are increasingly infused with algorithmic components, designed to optimize various objectives under diverse constraints. Examples include school choice mechanisms to assign students to schools, peer review matching systems to assign papers to reviewers, or targeting strategies in social networks to seed product adoptions. In many such systems (and in all of these examples), such algorithms are commonly randomized, motivated by fairness, strategic, or efficiency considerations. In this talk, I will describe general principles for how such randomness can be harvested to make causal inferences not only about the effects of these systems on various outcomes, but also how the system would behave under alternative algorithmic designs. By applying these methods to computational social systems, we can gain a deeper understanding of the ways in which these systems operate and their impact on individuals and society as a whole. The talk will incorporate joint work over several years with Alex Chin, Dean Eckles, Yuchen Hu, Steven Jecmen, Samir Khan, Martin Saveski, and Nihar Shah.About Johan UganderJohan Ugander is an Associate Professor of Management Science & Engineering at Stanford University and a member of Stanford's Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering. His research primarily focuses on statistical and computational methods for studying social networks, human behavior, and their interplay. Prior to joining the Stanford faculty he was a postdoctoral researcher at Microsoft Research 2014-2015 and held an affiliation with the Facebook Data Science team 2010-2014. He obtained his Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from Cornell University in 2014, with prior degrees from the University of Cambridge and Lund University. His awards include a 2022 NSF CAREER Award, a 2018 Young Investigator Award from the Army Research Office (ARO), a 2016 Facebook Faculty Award, the 2016 Eugene L. Grant Undergraduate Teaching Award from the Department of Management Science & Engineering, and multiple best paper awards.The Predicted HumanBeing human in 2023 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare, algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. The series is arranged with generous support by the Villum Foundation and the Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence."
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Dean Eckles";"SODAS, DTU Compute & Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence ";"2023-05-08";"10:00";"2023-05-08";"12:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We are delighted to host Professor Dean Eckles (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Eckles's work examines how interactive technologies affect human behavior, especially by mediating social influence.";"We are delighted to host Professor Dean Eckles (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Eckles's work examines how interactive technologies affect human behavior, especially by mediating social influence.Please join us for this event on May 8, 10am in Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140.TitleLong ties: Formation, social contagion, and economic outcomes AbstractNetwork structure can affect when, where, and how widely new ideas, products, and behaviors are adopted. Classic work in the social sciences has emphasizsed that ""long ties"" provide access to novel and advantageous information. In our empirical work, we show how particular life events (migration, education) are associated with forming long ties and how having long ties is associated with beneficial economic outcomes. Counties in the United States with more long ties (and more strong long ties) have higher incomes, lower unemployment, and more economic mobility, even after adjusting for other measures of social connections. These stylised facts are consistent with some models of contagion. In widely-used models of biological contagion, interventions that randomly rewire edges (generally making them ""longer"") accelerate spread. However, there are other models relevant to social contagion, such as those motivated by myopic best-response in games with strategic complements, in which individuals adopt if and only if the number of adopting neighbours exceeds a threshold. Recent work has argued that highly clustered, rather than random, networks facilitate spread of these ""complex contagions"". Here we show that minor modifications to this model, which make it more realistic, reverse this result: we allow very rare below-threshold adoption, i.e., rarely adoption occurs when there is only one adopting neighbour. In a version of ""small world"" networks, allowing adoptions below threshold to occur with order 1/√n probability — even only along some ""short"" cycle edges — is enough to ensure that random rewiring accelerates spread. Hypothetical interventions that randomly rewire existing edges or add random edges (versus adding ""short"", triad-closing edges) in hundreds of empirical social networks reduce time to spread. About Dean EcklesDean Eckles is a social scientist and statistician. At the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dean Eckles is the Mitsubishi Career Development Professor, an associate professor in the Sloan School of Management, and affiliated faculty at the Institute for Data, Systems & Society in the Schwarzman College of Computing. Much of his research examines how interactive technologies affect human behavior, especially by mediating social influence. He also works on methods for inferring cause–effect relationships and on applied statistics more generally. Dean Eckles’s empirical work uses observational studies and field experiments involving hundreds of millions of people. His papers appear in Journal of the American Statistical Association, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Nature, Science, Management Science, and other peer-reviewed journals and proceedings in statistics, computer science, and marketing. He is co-organiser of the Conference on Digital Experimentation (CODE@MIT) and serves as associate editor for two departments at Management Science. He was previously a scientist at Facebook and Nokia and completed five degrees, including his PhD, at Stanford University. The Predicted HumanBeing human in 2023 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare, algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalised algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. The series is arranged with generous support by the Villum Foundation and the Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence."
"Andreas Schaab, Toulouse School of Economics";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-05-08";"14:15";"2023-05-08";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Monetary and Fiscal Policy According to HANK-IO"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Monetary and Fiscal Policy According to HANK-IO"" Abstract This paper studies monetary and fiscal policy transmission in a multi-sector heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with an input-output network (“HANK-IO”). We document systematic household-sector linkages in micro data and calibrate our model to match them. To identify when these linkages have implications for policy transmission, we analytically characterize an as-if benchmark that features a strict decoupling between household and sectoral heterogeneity. Away from this benchmark, novel earnings and expenditure heterogeneity channels emerge that govern the propagation of demand and supply shocks. We develop a new decomposition that allows us to isolate and compute the contributions of distinct dimensions of heterogeneity to overall policy transmission. The contribution of earnings and expenditure heterogeneity channels in the transmission to aggregates is small, confirming the quantitative relevance of our as-if benchmark. In the cross section, we characterize the distributional consequences of monetary and fiscal policy across households and sectors. Contact person: John Vincent Kramer"
"Dalia Ghanem, University of California";"Climate Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-05-09";"14:00";"2023-05-09";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies"". Climate Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies"" Abstract Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. agricultural yield, along with a higher-frequency regressor, e.g. daily temperature. Applied researchers then face a problem of selecting a model to characterize the nonlinear relationship between the outcome and the high-frequency regressor to make a policy recommendation based on the model-implied damage function. We show that existing model selection criteria are only suitable for the policy objective if one of the models under consideration nests the true model. If all models are seen as imperfect approximations to the true nonlinear relationship, the model that performs well in the normal climate conditions is not guaranteed to perform well at the projected climate that is different from the historical norm. We therefore propose a new criterion, the proximity-weighted mean-squared error (PWMSE), that directly targets precision of the damage function at the projected future climate. To make this criterion feasible, we assign higher weights to prior years that can serve as weather analogs to the projected future climate when evaluating competing models using the PWMSE. We show that our approach selects the best approximate regression model that has the smallest weighted error of predicted impacts for a projected future climate. A simulation study and an application revisiting the impact of climate change on agricultural production illustrate the empirical relevance of our theoretical analysis. Contact person: Anders Rahbek"
"Mikkel Bennedsen, Aarhus Universitet";"Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-05-10";"14:00";"2023-05-10";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""A New Statistical Reduced Complexity Climate Model"". Climate Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""A New Statistical Reduced Complexity Climate Model"" Abstract In this paper, we propose a new, fully statistical, reduced complexity climate model. The starting point for our model is a number of physical equations for the global climate system, which we show how to cast in non-linear state-space form. We propose to estimate the model using the method of maximum likelihood obtained from the extended Kalman filter. In an empirical exercise, we use a data set of historical observations from 1959–2019 to estimate the parameters of the model. A likelihood ratio test sheds light on the most appropriate equation for converting the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (GtC) into radiative forcings (W/m2). We use the estimated model and assumptions on future greenhouse gas emissions to project global mean surface temperature out to the year 2100. As an application of the statistical model, we propose a simulation-based approach to construct uncertainty bands to the projections, and use these to quantify how much of the uncertainty is “aleatoric” (uncer- tainty arising from the internal variability of the climate system) and how much is “epistemic” (uncertainty arising from unknown model parameters). (Co-authered med Eric Hillebrand og Siem Jan Koopman) Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard"
"SODAS Data Discussion 12 May 2023";"SODAS";"2023-05-12";"11:00";"2023-05-12";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"Data Discussion with Hjalmar Bang Carlsen and August Lohse ";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Presenter: Hjalmar Bang Carlsen, Assistant Professor, Department of Sociology, Lund University and SODAS, UCPH. Title: The democratic consequences of platform design: How/If Facebook reactions changed participation in politics - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Presenter: August Lohse, PhD, SODAS, UCPH. Title: Responsiveness through social media: Are politicians expressed (issue) priorities driven by social media feedback?"
"Talk Series: Quantum meets society #2";"SODAS, Centre for Military Studies & Department of Political Science in collaboration with UCPH Quantum Hub ";"2023-05-17";"08:30";"";"10:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"What really happens when quantum technology meet society? In this talk series, quantum scientists and social scientists from the University of Copenhagen meet to explore potentials, challenges, and missing links in the intersection of quantum technologies and social sciences. In this talk, we explore the challenges and opportunities of quantum technology related to international politics and security.";"This talk is hosted in English. Quantum revolution 2.0 is looming, and it could change our society in ways we don't understand. Quantum computers, quantum mechanics and quantum communication are often presented as solutions to society's biggest challenges - green transition, health, security, etc. Currently, physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists are working intensively to develop the world's first fully functional quantum computer. The potential is enormous, but what actually happens when quantum technology meets society? What is quantum, and what will the relationship between quantum technology, people and societies be like? How will it affect international politics and security? And can we even regulate a limitless and abstract quantum technology? In this conversation series, quantum scientists and social scientists from the University of Copenhagen meet to explore potentials, challenges and missing links in intersection between quantum technology and society. The format is a curious armchair conversation - and there will be no such thing as ""stupid questions"". The talk of the day How will quantum technologies affect international politics and security? Gemma C. Solomon (professor in chemistry) meets Ole Wæver (professor of international politics). In the second talk of the series, we explore the challenges and opportunities of quantum technology related to international politics and security. Registration is required: Register here We offer coffee and croissants from 8.30-8.45. Kristian Søby Kristensen, head of the Center for Military Studies and Rebecca Adler-Nissen, director of strategic partnerships, Social Data Science (SODAS), will introduce the talk. The talk series is organized by SODAS, Center for Military Studies & the Department of Political Science in collaboration with the UCPH Quantum Hub. Gemma Clare Solomon Larsen is a professor at the Department of Chemistry at the University of Copenhagen and among the world's leading researchers in the field of quantum interference. Together with her research team, she has, via advanced calculations, made ground-breaking discoveries in the field of destructive quantum interference, where you can 'turn off' an electric current with the help of individual molecules. Ole Wæver is professor of international politics at the Department of Political Science at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the research centers CAST (Centre for Advanced Security Theory, head 2008-2013) and CRIC (Research Center for the resolution of international conflicts, center head 2013-). Internationally, he is particularly known for creating the security theoretical concept ""securitization"" and as one of the originators of the so-called ""Copenhagen School"" in research into international politics. "
"Ulrich Wagner, University of Mannheim";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-05-22";"13:00";"2023-05-22";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Urban Air Pollution and Sick Leaves: Evidence from Social Security Data"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Urban Air Pollution and Sick Leaves: Evidence from Social Security Data"" Abstract We estimate the impact of air pollution on work days lost among workers affiliated to Spain’s universal sickness-leave insurance. We find that a 10% reduction in pollution reduces sick leaves by 0.8% of the mean. This effect is larger among workers with pre-existing medical conditions. Our estimates imply that improvements in urban air quality between 2005 and 2014 reduced worker absence by 5.6 million days, saving €0.5 billion in foregone production. We argue that this is a naive estimate of the underlying health impact because it does not account for shirking and presenteeism. We exploit within-worker variation in job security which shifts incentives for such behaviors, independently of pollution shocks, to identify their effect on sick-leave taking. We find evidence of shirking on low-pollution days, which biases the pollution-absence gradient towards zero among workers with high job security. Accounting for this doubles our estimate of work days lost due to air pollution. Contact person: Frikk Nesje"
"Adrien Bilal, Harvard University";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-05-22";"14:15";"2023-05-22";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Anticipating Climate Change Across the United States"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Anticipating Climate Change Across the United States"" Abstract We study the role of anticipation and adaptation in determining the aggregate and local cost of climate change. We develop a dynamic spatial model of the U.S. economy divided into over 3,000 counties that features costly forward-looking migration and capital investment decisions. Climate change affects capital depreciation and productivity. Recent methodological advances that leverage analytic perturbations of the ‘Master Equation’ representation of the economy make the model tractable. We estimate event studies that trace out the local impact of floods, storms, and heat waves over the 20th century on productivity and capital depreciation. We estimate structural damage functions by matching these reduced-form results. Our findings show, first, that climate impacts on capital depreciation are a substantial source of climate damages. They magnify the U.S. aggregate welfare costs of climate change twofold to nearly 3% for workers and 8% for capitalists in the business-as-usual warming scenario. Second, anticipation of future climate damages has small aggregate effects but reduces climate-induced worker mobility as workers foresee the persistence in the location of capital investments. Third, migration reduces substantially the variance in the welfare impact of climate change across counties but affects aggregate welfare damages only marginally since the location of climate damages is uncorrelated with current local development. Joint with Esteban Rossi-Hansberg Contact person: John Vincent Kramer "
"Lena Hensvik, Uppsala University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-05-23";"13:15";"2023-05-23";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""How can AI improve search and matching? Evidence from 59 million personalized job recommendations"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""How can AI improve search and matching? Evidence from 59 million personalized job recommendations"" Contact person: Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg "
"Emil Chrisander defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-05-24";"13:00";"2023-05-24";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is: Essays on Student Behavior: Peer Conflicts, Honesty, and School Choice.";"Candidate: Emil Chrisander, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays on Student Behavior: Peer Conflicts, Honesty, and School Choice Supervisors: Associate Professor Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen Professor David Dreyer Lassen Assessment Committee: Associate Professor Miriam Wüst, Department of EconomicsAssociate Professor Rustamdjan Hakimov, University of LausanneProfessor Tommy Andersson, Lund University Summary: This dissertation explores student behavior in three self-contained chapters. Student behavior is an important topic because it influences adolescence and adult life for good or for worse. This dissertation analyses two types of student behavior: peer conflicts and choice of education. These are relevant policy topics because i) students involved in peer conflicts have worse life prospects than students who do not take part in peer conflicts, and ii) students’ choice of education partly determines their future wealth and opportunities. The first chapter is an empirical analysis of why students’ admission behavior to higher education does not correspond to expectations from standard economic theory. This chapter contributes to the growing body of research that shows unexpected non-truthful admission behavior. Our findings inform policymakers on how to design admission systems, and in particular how to mitigate adverse conse- quences of non-truthful reporting. The second chapter is an empirical analysis of the causal relationship between a sibling’s birth order and her risk of peer conflicts in school. This is a relevant question because peer conflicts are harmful to students and birth order is an observable condition which enable schools and policy makers to act. The third and final chapter is a theoretical analysis that proposes a novel feature to a popular mechanism for admission systems. The feature allows students to partially reveal valuable private information to colleges. This is important work because it addresses problems of efficiency and fairness that can occur if public available information about students does not reveal students’ preparedness for a study program. E.g., a student’s math score from high school may not be a good indicator for preparedness to study artwork. It is relevant for policies related to the design of admission systems and two-sided markets with information frictions. "
"Talk: Examining Validity of ML Systems in the Public Sphere by Rediet Abebe";"The Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence, DTU Compute and SODAS";"2023-05-24";"15:00";"2023-05-24";"17:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K.";"We are delighted to host Professor Rediet Abebe (University of California, Berkeley) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Abebe's research builds a scientific foundation for understanding the interactions of algorithms and inequality.";"Examining Validity of ML Systems in the Public Sphere We are delighted to host Professor Rediet Abebe (University of California, Berkeley) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Abebe's research builds a scientific foundation for understanding the interactions of algorithms and inequality. About Rediet Abebe Rediet Abebe is an Assistant Professor at University of California, Berkeley where she leads the Berkeley Equity and Access in Algorithms, Mechanisms, and Optimization research group. Rediet Abebe is also a Junior Fellow at the Harvard Society of Fellows and an Andrew Carnegie Fellow. Much of Abebe's work studies algorithms and inequality, a research area that she has pioneered and is contributing to the foundation of. Before joining the faculty at University of California, Berkeley, Rediet Abebe did her Ph.D. with Jon Kleinberg at Cornell University. She also holds degrees in mathematics from the University of Cambridge and from Harvard University."
"Elisa Rubbo, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-05-30";"09:00";"2023-05-30";"10:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Monetary non-neutrality in the cross-sectionMonetary non-neutrality in the cross-section"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Monetary non-neutrality in the cross-section"" Abstract This paper derives the cross sectional effects of monetary policy on employment and consumption in a model economy where heterogeneous agents earn and spend their income in different industries. Agents are characterized by their labor type, consumption preferences, wage rigidity and labor supply elasticity. Industries hire different bundles of labor types and capital assets, and face heterogeneous price rigidity and demand elasticity. In response to a monetary expansion, goods that have stickier prices or use supply-elastic factors (or whose inputs have sticky prices or use supply-elastic factors...) become cheaper, thereby raising the relative demand and employment of the workers who produce them. In the aggregate, the ability of producers and consumers to substitute towards sticky-price or supply-elastic goods increases monetary non-neutrality. Calibrating the model to the US economy, and interpreting labor types as different occupations, reveals significant heterogeneity in the impact response of employment to monetary policy, which varies from 0.25 (food services) to 1.1 (construction) for a 1increase in nominal GDP. Ignoring input-output linkages would reduce the cross-sectional range from 0.86 to 0.35. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Talk: Initial Progress on the Science of Science by Dashun Wang";"SODAS & the Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence";"2023-06-01";"15:00";"2023-06-01";"16:30";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"The increasing availability of large-scale datasets that trace the entirety of the scientific enterprise, have created an unprecedented opportunity to explore scientific production and reward. In this talk, I’ll highlight some examples of research in this area, hoping to illustrate the promise of science of science as well as its limitations.";"Initial Progress on the Science of Science The increasing availability of large-scale datasets that trace the entirety of the scientific enterprise, have created an unprecedented opportunity to explore scientific production and reward. Parallel developments in data science, network science, and artificial intelligence offer us powerful tools and techniques to make sense of these millions of data points. Together, they tell a complex yet insightful story about how scientific careers unfold, how collaborations contribute to discovery, and how scientific progress emerges through a combination of multiple interconnected factors. These opportunities - and challenges that come with them - have fuelled the emergence of a multidisciplinary community of scientists that are united by their goals of understanding science and innovation. These practitioners of the science of science use the scientific methods to study themselves, examine projects that work as well as those that fail, quantify the patterns that characterise discovery and invention, and offer lessons to improve science as a whole. In this talk, I’ll highlight some examples of research in this area, hoping to illustrate the promise of science of science as well as its limitations. This talk is co-hosted by Professor Roberta Sinatra and Professor Sune Lehmann About Dashun Wang Dashun Wang is a Professor of Management and Organisations at the Kellogg School of Management and the McCormick School of Engineering, Northwestern University, where he is the Founding Director of the Center for Science of Science and Innovation (CSSI). He is best known for his contributions on the Science of Science, a quest to turn the scientific methods and curiosities upon science itself. His research has been published in journals like Nature and Science, and has been featured in virtually all major global media outlets. Dashun is a recipient of multiple awards for his research and teaching, including the AFOSR Young Investigator award, Poets & Quants Best 40 Under 40 Professors, Thinkers50 Radar 2021, Top scientific awards from the Complex Systems Society, German Physical Society, and Network Science Society, including the Erdos-Renyi Prize, and more. Check out his first book: The Science of Science (available on Amazon | Download for free). Join via Zoom Participate online via the following Zoom link (no longer available)."
"SODAS Lecture: Personality in your Pocket - How to use Smartphones for Psychological Assessment";"SODAS";"2023-06-02";"11:00";"";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"SODAS Lecture with Dr. Clemens Stachl, University of St. Gallen";"Title: Personality in your Pocket: How to use Smartphones for Psychological Assessment Abstract: The digitisation of our society has brought about a paradigm shift in the way we engage with digital media, exchange information, and make decisions. This change has had a profound impact on the way social scientists collect data on human behaviour and experience in the field. To address this challenge, a new form of data collection has emerged in the form of in-vivo high-frequency mobile sensing via smartphones. Mobile sensing enables researchers to investigate previously intangible psychological constructs with more objective data on behaviour and environments. By collecting fine-grained, longitudinal data in real-world settings at a large scale, this approach has the potential to significantly advance our understanding of human behaviour and experience. When combined with cutting-edge machine learning techniques, mobile sensing data can provide direct predictions of psychological traits and behavioural outcomes. In this talk, I will provide a comprehensive overview of our work that combines machine learning and mobile sensing, exploring the opportunities and limitations of this innovative approach. Additionally, I will offer a discerning perspective on the implications of the routine use of mobile psychological sensing for research and society. Bio: Clemens Stachl is Associate Professor of Behavioural Science and Director of the Institute of Behavioral Science and Technology at the University of St. Gallen. Prior to assuming his faculty position in Switzerland he worked on postdoc positions at the Department of Communication at Stanford University and at the Department of Psychology at the University of Munich. His research is focused on the investigation of behavioural-psychological phenomena through a technological lens. Specifically, he uses data from consumer electronics (e.g., smartphones) and social media to study how psychological traits (e.g., personality), states (e.g., affect) and psychological processes (e.g., person-situation interaction) are reflected in digital traces of everyday behaviour and how these data can be used to study these phenomena. Additionally, he is concerned with the implications for individuals, groups, and societal structures that might arise from the widespread use of computational and algorithmic systems in our daily lives."
"Tillmann Eymess, Heidelberg University";"Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-06-05";"13:00";"2023-06-05";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Perceived relative income and preferences for public good provision"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Perceived relative income and preferences for public good provision"" Abstract We formulate a theory of how perceived relative income affects preferences for public goods under decreasing marginal benefits and inequality aversion. In a randomized survey experiment with an Indian sample, we inform respondents of official income ranks and test our theory on preferences for air quality, including actual contributions to environmental initiatives. Right-wing supporters withdraw contributions when perceived relative income increases. The effect coincides with diminished health concerns and lower intentions to utilize private defensive measures. Despite similar reductions in health concerns, center-left respondents do not reduce contributions. A second survey experiment provides robustness using a novel treatment that exogenously shifts relative income perceptions. Contact person: Frikk Nesje"
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Gillian Hadfield";"SODAS, DTU Compute & Pioneer Centre for Artificial Intelligence ";"2023-06-06";"09:00";"2023-06-06";"11:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We are delighted to host the Professor Gillian Hadfield (University of Toronto) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Hadfield is a celebrated scholar who is currently working on innovative designs for legal and regulatory systems for AI and other complex global technologies.";" We are delighted to host the Professor Gillian Hadfield (University of Toronto) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Hadfield is a celebrated scholar who is currently working on innovative designs for legal and regulatory systems for AI and other complex global technologies. Please join us for this event on June 6, 9am in Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140. TitleThe Future of AI Governance AbstractProgress in AI is moving faster than many of us expected and the challenge of ensuring AI is safe and beneficial is mounting. Existing legal and regulatory institutions, including pending legislation such as the E.U. AI Act, are unlikely to meet this challenge, raising the urgency of bold new thinking about how to regulate. In this talk, I'll discuss these challenges and present concrete proposals for new approaches to AI governance. About Gillian HadfieldGillian K. Hadfield, B.A. (Hons.) Queens, J.D., M.A., Ph.D. (Economics) Stanford, is Professor of Law, Professor of Strategic Management and holds the Schwartz Reisman Chair in Technology and Society at the University of Toronto and a CIFAR AI Chair at the Vector Institute. She is the inaugural Director of the Schwartz Reisman Institute for Technology and Society. Her current research is focused on innovative design for legal and regulatory systems for AI and other complex global technologies; computational models of human normative systems; and working with machine learning researchers to build ML systems that understand and respond to human norms. Professor Hadfield is a Faculty Affiliate at the Center for Human-Compatible AI at the University of California Berkeley and Senior Policy Advisor at OpenAI in San Francisco. Her book Rules for a Flat World: Why Humans Invented Law and How to Reinvent It for a Complex Global Economy was published by Oxford University Press in 2017; a paperback edition with a new prologue on AI was published in 2020 and an audiobook version released in 2021. The Predicted HumanBeing human in 2023 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare, algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. The series is arranged with generous support by the Villum Foundation and the Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence. "
"Talk Series: Quantum meets society #3";"SODAS, Centre for Military Studies & Department of Political Science in collaboration with UCPH Quantum Hub ";"2023-06-07";"08:45";"";"10:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K ";"What really happens when quantum technology meet society? In this talk series, quantum scientists and social scientists from the University of Copenhagen meet to explore potentials, challenges, and missing links in the intersection of quantum technologies and social sciences. In this talk, we explore the opportunities and challenges when it comes to regulating Quantum in an international society.";"This talk is hosted in English. Quantum revolution 2.0 is looming, and it could change our society in ways we don't understand. Quantum computers, quantum mechanics and quantum communication are often presented as solutions to society's biggest challenges - green transition, health, security, etc. Currently, physicists, mathematicians and computer scientists are working intensively to develop the world's first fully functional quantum computer. The potential is enormous, but what actually happens when quantum technology meets society? What is quantum, and what will the relationship between quantum technology, people and societies be like? How will it affect international politics and security? And can we even regulate a limitless and abstract quantum technology? In this conversation series, quantum scientists and social scientists from the University of Copenhagen meet to explore potentials, challenges and missing links in intersection between quantum technology and society. The format is a curious armchair conversation - and there will be no such thing as ""stupid questions"". The talk of the day How can we govern and regulate Quantum? Klaus Mølmer (Professor, Quantum Optics) meets Kevin Jon Heller (Professor, International Law and Security) In the third talk of the series, we explore the opportunities and challenges when it comes to regulating Quantum in an international society. Registration is required: Register here We offer coffee and croissants from 8.45-9.00. Kristian Søby Kristensen, head of the Center for Military Studies and Rebecca Adler-Nissen, director of strategic partnerships, Social Data Science (SODAS), will introduce the talk. The talk series is organized by SODAS, Center for Military Studies & the Department of Political Science in collaboration with the UCPH Quantum Hub. Klaus Mølmer is a Professor in Quantoptics at Niels Bohr Instituttet (TBD). Kevin Jon Heller is a Professor of International Law and Security at The Centre for Military Studies (CMS), a research centre at the University of Copenhagen’s Department of Political Science. "
"Jeanne Commault, Sciences Po";"Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-06-12";"14:15";"2023-06-12";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Heterogeneity in MPCs Beyond Liquidity Constraints: The Role of Persistent Earnings"". Macroeconomics Seminar, arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Heterogeneity in MPCs Beyond Liquidity Constraints: The Role of Persistent Earnings"" Abstract Understanding the distribution of marginal propensities to consume (MPC) in the population is key to model the transmission of shocks and policies to the economy. Recent empirical findings are challenging the view that this distribution is mainly explained by liquidity constraints as: (i) many people with substantial liquid wealth have a high MPC; (ii) current earnings, which should relax the constraint, do not reduce the MPC. I note that a mechanism explaining (i)-(ii) is present in a standard life-cycle model with a transitory-permanent earnings process: when human capital is more risky than other assets, an increase in the permanent component scaling human capital strengthens precautionary behavior and raises the MPC. In survey data, this effect is present and large enough to explain (i)-(ii). Numerical simulations match the survey estimates when including a rich earnings process---which also raises the average MPC, to the same extent that illiquid wealth does. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"PhD defence on &#8221; Discursive Cartography: Computing and Interpreting Maps of Online Communication&#8221;";"SODAS";"2023-06-16";"15:00";"2023-06-16";"18:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, room 1.1.12";"SODAS PhD student Thyge Ryom Enggaard will defend his dissertation "" Discursive Cartography: Computing and Interpreting Maps of Online Communication "" on Friday 16th June 15.00-18.00 CET.";"SODAS PhD student Thyge Ryom Enggaard will defend his dissertation ""Discursive Cartography: Computing and Interpreting Maps of Online Communication"" on Friday 16th June 15.00-18.00 CET. Title: Discursive Cartography: Computing and Interpreting Maps of Online Communication Date: 16th June 2023, 15:00-18:00 CET Zoom-link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/68168086760?pwd=RjhLbnJNRTlyRnhwNUtjS2M3T3cvUT09 Abstract: The use of computational models has become a promising and fairly established part of many social scientific approaches to analyzing texts. Fundamentally, however, the quantification involved in computation seems incompatible with how we naturally read and understand texts, including being insensitive to the many contexts surrounding the text. This dissertation contributes to the development and application of computational methods for exploratory discourse analysis, where researchers do not seek to test pre-established theories, but rather seek to learn about various properties of a given text, potentially with the aim of subsequently developing new theories. In particular, the dissertation advocates a cartographic approach to exploratory discourse analysis, in which the role of computational methods is two-fold. First, computational methods are used to track and model the associations between elements in the text, such as the associations between words or the ways authors are associated with words. These include counting and tracing selected associations, as well as embedding entire matrices of associations. Such computational methods are useful because they help characterize one particular context, namely the ways in which textual elements are used within the text itself. Second, computational methods are used to produce visual maps of the computed associations between textual elements. These maps serve as a compression of the modelled associations, that help facilitate the identification and interpretation of patterns in the text at hand. The strength of these maps is the ease with which they can be shared, discussed and criticized, within and outside a research project. Since a computational analysis of a text cannot restore the wider contexts that surround the text, the dissertation also experiments with how a cartographic approach to exploratory text analysis can be fused with (n)ethnographic observations of the wider settings in which the texts emerge."
"Future of HumAnIty";"The Pioneer Centre for AI, SODAS, GESDA - Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator, Quantum For Life Center & UCPH Quantum Hub";"2023-06-20";"16:00";"2023-06-20";"17:30";"Niels K. Jerne, Blegdamsvej 3B (Mærsk Tårnet), 2200 København N";"Join Future of HumAnIty where experts and innovators discuss how AI, Quantum and other new technologies will impact our future and how we can proactively take charge. The event includes a Keynote Speech by former Under-Secretary-General of the United nations Michal Møller, and a Panel Discussion by Experts and Visioners. It all ends with a glass of cava. ";"Join Future of HumAnIty where experts and innovators discuss how AI, Quantum and other new technologies will impact our future and how we can proactively take charge. The event includes a Keynote Speech by former Under-Secretary-General of the United nations Michal Møller, and a Panel Discussion by Experts and Visioners. It all ends with a glass of cava. Keynote How do we remain in charge of our future? – The challenge of new technologies and other existential threats, Michael Møller, by former Under-Secretary-General of the United Nations. Against the backdrop of rapidly evolving new technologies, accelerating climate change, a changing world order and other existential threats, Møller raises the question of what humanity should do to stay in charge of its future. He will particularly look at the evolution of quantum, AI, human augmentation, geo-engineering, and other future technologies, all of which have the potential to change the fabric of humanity itself. He will interact with a diverse panel about how we can harness technology that, without the right control may threaten our very existence. The talk will be followed by a panel discussion with experts and visioners. About keynote speaker Michael Møller Møller was born in 1952 in Copenhagen, Denmark. He has over 40 years of experience in the UN and was for many years the highest-ranking Dane in the organisation. In his last post he served as Director-General of the UN’s Office in Geneva and as Secretary-General of the Conference of Disarmament. Møller is now a member of the Board of the Geneva Science and Diplomacy Anticipator Foundation (GESDA). The University of Copenhagen’s Quantum Hub is collaborating with GESDA on the future of quantum Technology. Furthermore, Møller is Senior Adviser to Macro Advisory Partners in London, Distinguished Fellow at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Geneva, Member of the Executive Board of the Kofi Annan Foundation, Member of the Board of One Young World, and member of the Advisory Boards of several other Foundations About the panel In addition to Michael Møller, the panel counts: Rebecca Adler-Nissen is a Professor in Political Science at the University of Copenhagen with a focus on international relations and diplomacy in the digital age, the relationship between off-line and online worlds and digital mis- and disinformation. Shefali Nandhra is MA Development Studies student at the Geneva Graduate Institute, specialising in sustainability. Founder & host of “the aspect:” podcast, forging the voice for a sustainable future. Frederik Ravn Clausen works on probabilistic problems in quantum science as a PhD student at University of Copenhagen and has broad interests in science and society. Moderator: Matthias Christandl, Professor for Quantum Information, UCPH. Sign up here."
"The science of the predicted human talk series: David Lazer";"Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence, DTU Compute and SODAS";"2023-08-21";"11:00";"2023-08-21";"13:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We are delighted to host Professor David Lazer for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Please join us for this event on August 21, 11am in Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140";"Title: ""The emergent logic of the Online Information Ecosystem"" AbstractThe first part of this presentation examines the emergent and sometimes paradoxical logic of the internet news ecosystem, in particular: (1) collectively, news diets have become far more concentrated in a small number of outlets; (2) however, individuals have relatively diverse news diets-- almost certainly far more diverse than was plausible pre-Internet (as measured by number of unique content producers); (3) the social-algorithmic curation system of the Internet tends to point people to content with their preferences, sometimes in unlikely places. The greater diversity of consumption of news measured by number of unique outlets may not actually result in diversity of content. The second part of the presentation will discuss the development of the National Internet Observatory, a large, NSF-supported effort to create a privacy-preserving data collection/data analytic system for the broader research community. BioDavid Lazer is University Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Computer Sciences, Northeastern University, faculty fellow at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard, and elected fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration. He has published prominent work on computational social science, misinformation, democratic deliberation, collective intelligence, and algorithmic auditing, across a wide range of prominent journals such as Science, Nature, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, and the American Political Science Review. His research has received extensive coverage in the media, including the New York Times, NPR, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal. He is a co-leader of the COVID States Project, one of the leading efforts to understand the social and political dimensions of the pandemic in the United States. He is cofounder of the National Internet Observatory and Volunteer Science. Dr. Lazer has served in multiple leadership and editorial positions, including on the Standing Committee on Advancing Science Communication for the National Academies, the International Society for Computational Social Science, the International Network for Social Network Analysis, Social Networks, Network Science, and Science."
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Professor Jon Kleinberg";"Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence, DTU Compute and SODAS";"2023-08-22";"15:00";"2023-08-22";"17:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"We are delighted to host Professor Jon Kleinberg (Tisch University) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. ";"We are delighted to host Professor Jon Kleinberg (Tisch University) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Professor Kleinberg's research explores the philosophy and ethics of emerging science and technologies, not least Artificial Intelligence.Please join us for this event on August 22, 3pm in Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140 TitleThe Challenge of Understanding What Users Want: Inconsistent Preferences and Engagement Optimisation AbstractOnline platforms have a wealth of data, run countless experiments and use industrial-scale algorithms to optimise user experience. Despite this, many users seem to regret the time they spend on these platforms. One possible explanation is that incentives are misaligned: platforms are not optimising for user happiness. We suggest the problem runs deeper, transcending the specific incentives of any particular platform, and instead stems from a mistaken foundational assumption. To understand what users want, platforms look at what users do. This is a kind of revealed-preference assumption that is ubiquitous in user models. Yet research has demonstrated, and personal experience affirms, that we often make choices in the moment that are inconsistent with what we actually want: we can choose mindlessly or myopically, behaviours that feel entirely familiar on online platforms. In this work, we develop a model of media consumption where users have inconsistent preferences. We consider what happens when a platform that simply wants to maximise user utility is only able to observe behavioural data in the form of user engagement. Our framework is based on a stochastic model of user behaviour, in which users are guided by two conflicting sets of preferences -- one that operates impulsively in the moment, and the other of which makes plans over longer time-scales. By linking the behaviour of this model to abstractions of platform design choices, we can develop a theoretical framework and vocabulary in which to explore interactions between design, behavioural science, and social media. About Jon KleinbergJon Kleinberg is the Tisch University Professor in the Computer Science Department at Cornell University. Broadly, his research focuses on issues at the interface of networks and information, with an emphasis on the social and information networks that underpin the Web and other online media. Kleinberg has made deep, creative and insightful contributions to many areas, including the HITS algorithm for web search, theoretical results on navigation in networks, and most recently fundamental results in algorithmic fairness. His work has been recognised with MacArthur, Packard, and Sloan Foundation Fellowships, as well as awards including the Nevanlinna Prize, the Lanchester Prize, and the ACM-Infosys Foundation Award in the Computing Sciences. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and serves on the Computer and Information Science and Engineering (CISE) Advisory Committee of the National Science Foundation, and the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) of the National Research Council. The Predicted HumanBeing human in 2023 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare, algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviours to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviours. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalised algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. The series is arranged with generous support by the Villum Foundation and the Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence."
"August Twile Nielsen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-08-25";"15:00";"2023-08-25";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is: Essays on The Green Transition of Manufacturing";"Candidate: August Twile Nielsen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays on The Green Transition of Manufacturing Supervisors: Professor Peter Birch Sørensen Professor Jakob Roland Munch Assessment Committee: Professor Morten Bennedsen, Department of Economics, Copenhagen University Professor Rikard Forslid, Department of Economics, Stockholm University Associate Professor Reed Walker, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley Summary: This PhD dissertation consists of four independent chapters with different research questions and methods, but they all relate to a green transition of manufacturing. The dissertation sheds light on causes and consequences of the transition, thereby contributing to an increased understanding within this research field and hopefully making decision makers capable of making more informed choices. Chapter 1 focuses on incorporating different abatement technologies in economic models. The chapter presents a new method that improves estimations of which technologies firms will use and the costs of reducing emissions. Chapter 2 shows a descriptive analysis of manufacturing firms’ emissions intensity, measured as emissions per worker, across European countries. The analysis shows that there are small differences across countries, but large differences within industries. This insight, broadly speaking, improves the external validity of research examining aspects of the green transition in one country. Chapter 3 examines to what extent international trade has contributed to making Danish manufacturing cleaner. Results show that offshoring reduces the aggregate Danish emission intensity of manufacturing, while import competition does not affect it. Chinese import competition on the contrary increase global emissions, while offshoring has no effect on global emissions. Finally, chapter 4 sheds light on one aspect of possible consequences of the green transition: How are Danish workers affected by rising energy prices? The analysis finds that average worker earnings decrease modestly, but the effect varies across different types of workers: Those in manual occupations or with short education, particularly in energy intensive firms, are affected significantly, while workers with long education are barely affected."
"Attila Gyetvai, Bank of Portugal";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-09-11";"14:15";"2023-09-11";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Option Value of Occupations"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""The Option Value of Occupations"" Abstract The value of a job lies not only in the wage and amenities it pays, but also in the future opportunities it enables. This paper quantifies the value of such opportunities - the option value - associated with occupations. I develop a model of job mobility which parses the flow and option value of occupations: the flow value arises from compensating differentials whereas the option value is comprised of occupational wage promotions, job offer arrival rates, wage offers, and nonpecuniary job switching costs. I estimate the structural model on linked Hungarian administrative data and use it to quantify the relative importance of each of these mechanisms. High-skill occupations offer higher wages and more stable employment; in turn, low-skill occupations feature higher nonwage amenities but larger nonpecuniary costs of switching to high-skill jobs. As a result, workers who start their careers in a high-skill occupation in the bottom 10 percent of wages surpass those who start in a low-skill occupation in the top 5 percent of wages in 5 years. I find that occupational labor market frictions are the key ingredients to the option value of occupations. Contact person: John Vincent Kramer"
"SODAS Lecture: How State and Protester Violence Affect Protest Dynamics";"SODAS";"2023-09-15";"11:00";"";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"SODAS Lecture with Professor Zachary Steinert-Threlkeld, UCLA.";"Title: How State and Protester Violence Affect Protest Dynamics. Abstract: How do state and protester violence affect whether protests grow or shrink? Previous research finds conflicting results for how violence affects protest dynamics. This article argues that expectations and emotions should generate an n-shaped relationship between the severity of state repression and changes in protest size the next day. Protester violence should reduce the appeal of protesting and increase the expected cost of protesting, decreasing subsequent protest size. Since testing this argument re- quires precise measurements, a pipeline is built that applies convolutional neural networks to images shared in geolocated tweets. Continuously valued estimates of state and protester violence are generated per city-day for 24 cities across five countries, as are estimates of protest size and the age and gender of protesters. The results suggest a solution to the repression- dissent puzzle and join a growing body of research benefiting from the use of social media to understand subnational conflict. Bio: Professor Zachary Steinert-Threlkeld is an Associate Professor of Public Policy at UCLA’s Luskin School of Public Affairs. His research seeks to understand protest dynamics using natural language processing, computer vision, and large-scale simulations. He has studied protests around the world, including the Arab Spring, East Asia, and the Americas. His newest work looks at evasion of the Great Firewall in China during COVID-19, signalling on social media during the Syrian civil war, how state violence can make protests smaller or larger, and the effect of social media taxation. His work has been published in the American Political Science Review, Journal of Politics, Political Analysis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and World Development and received coverage from Al-Jazeera, The Atlantic, Business Insider, The Economist, The New York Times, Scientific American, and WIRED (2). The lecture will be streamed on Zoom via the following link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/62059888624 (Meeting-ID 620 5988 8624)"
"Francesco Zanetti, University of Oxford";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-09-18";"14:15";"2023-09-18";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty"" Abstract: When agents’ information is imperfect and dispersed, existing measures of macroeconomic uncertainty based on the forecast error variance have two distinct drivers: the variance of the economic shock and the variance of the information dispersion. The former driver increases uncertainty and reduces agents’ disagreement (agreed uncertainty). The latter increases both uncertainty and disagreement (disagreed uncertainty). We use these implications to identify empirically the effects of agreed and disagreed uncertainty shocks, based on a novel measure of consumer disagreement derived from survey expectations. Disagreed uncertainty has no discernible economic effects and is benign for economic activity, but agreed uncertainty exerts significant depressing effects on a broad spectrum of macroeconomic indicators. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn "
"Christine Braun, University of Warwick";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-09-25";"14:15";"2023-09-25";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Labor Market Beliefs and the Gender Wage Gap"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Labor Market Beliefs and the Gender Wage Gap"" Abstract We study the role of labor market beliefs in the gender pay gap. We find that, on average, women expect to receive lower salaries than men and also expect to receive fewer offers when employed. Gender differences in expectations explain a sizable fraction of the residual gap in reservation wages. We estimate a partial equilibrium job search model that incorporates worker heterogeneity in beliefs about the wage offer distribution, arrival rates, and separation rate. Counterfactual exercises show that labor market beliefs play an important role in the gender wage gap, but matter little for the gender differences in welfare. Eliminating gender differences in the actual offer distribution, by contrast, decreases the gender gap in pay and welfare. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn "
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Keyon Vafa";"The Pioneer Centre for AI, DTU Compute & SODAS";"2023-09-27";"11:00";"";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"We are happy to announce that we will be hosting a talk by Keyon Vafa - a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University - as part of the ‘The Science of the Predicted Human’ talk series.";"The Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence, DTU Compute and SODAS are delighted to announce that we will be hosting a talk by Keyon Vafa (postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University) as part of the ‘The Science of the Predicted Human’ talk series. In his research, Keyon develops machine learning methodologies to uncover insights into human behaviour in labour economics and political science, among other fields in the social sciences. Keyon will be presenting his interesting and highly innovative work (joint with Susan Athey and David Blei) on how to decompose the gender wage gap over worker careers using foundation models. Title ""Decomposing the Gender Wage Gap with a Foundation Model of Labour History"" Abstract A large literature in labour economics seeks to decompose gender wage gaps into different sources, including portions explained by cross-gender differences in education and occupation. While career histories contain valuable information about sources of gender wage disparities, they are too high-dimensional to include in standard econometric techniques. This talk presents new machine learning methods for decomposing gender wage gaps over worker careers. We develop a ""foundation model"" of career trajectories to summarise worker histories with low-dimensional representations. We show how to fine-tune the foundation model on small survey datasets while ensuring that the representations do not omit features of history whose exclusion would bias decompositions. On data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we show that full worker history explains about 25% of the gender wage gap than is unexplained by standard summary statistics and covariates. We conclude by using the representations of worker history to identify clusters of history that are most important for explaining wage gaps. Joint work with Susan Athey and David Blei. The Predicted Human Being human in 2023 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare, algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviours to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviours. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalised algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. The series is arranged with generous support by the Villum Foundation and the Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence."
"Thomas Drechsel, University of Maryland";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-10-02";"14:15";"2023-10-02";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach"". Macroeconomics seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach"" Abstract This paper proposes a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that staff economists at the Federal Reserve prepare for FOMC meetings, we capture the information set of the committee at the time of policy decisions. We verify econometrically that the language contains valuable information beyond what is incorporated in the staff’s numerical forecasts. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict changes in the target interest rate conditional on the committee’s information set and obtain a measure of monetary policy shocks as the residual. We find that the dynamic responses of macro variables to our identified shocks are consistent with the theoretical consensus. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn "
"Massimo Franchi, Sapienza University of Rome and Paolo Paruolo, Joint Research Centre";"Econometrics seminar arranged  by the Department of Economics";"2023-10-05";"14:30";"2023-10-05";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Estimating the number of common trends in large T and N factor models via canonical correlations analysis"". Econometrics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Estimating the number of common trends in large T and N factor models via canonical correlations analysis"" Abstract Asymptotic results for canonical correlations are derived when the analysis is performed between levels and cumulated levels of N time series of length T, generated by a factor model with s common stochastic trends. For T → ∞ and fixed N and s, the largest s squared canonical correlations are shown to converge to a non-degenerate limit distribution while the remaining N − s converge in probability to 0. Furthermore, if s grows at most linearly in N, the largest s squared canonical correlations are shown to converge in probability to 1 as (T, N) → ∞. This feature allows one to estimate the number of common trends as the integer with largest decrease in adjacent squared canonical correlations. The maximal gap equals 1 in the limit and this criterion is shown to be consistent. A Monte Carlo simulation study illustrates the findings. Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen"
"Dmitry Mukhin, London School of Economics";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-10-09";"14:15";"2023-10-09";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Optimal Exchange Rate Policy"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Optimal Exchange Rate Policy"" Abstract We develop a general policy analysis framework that features nominal rigidities and financial frictions with endogenous PPP and UIP deviations. The goal of the optimal policy is to balance output gap stabilization and international risk sharing using a mix of monetary policy and FX interventions. The nominal exchange rate plays a dual role. First, it allows for the real exchange rate adjustments when prices are sticky, which are necessary to close the output gap. Monetary policy can eliminate the output gap, but this generally requires a volatile nominal exchange rate. Volatility in the nominal exchange rate, in turn, limits the extent of international risk sharing in the financial market with risk averse intermediaries. Optimal monetary policy closes the output gap, while optimal FX interventions eliminate UIP deviations. When the first-best real exchange rate is stable, both goals can be achieved by a fixed exchange rate policy — an open-economy divine coincidence. Generally, this is not the case, and the optimal policy requires a managed peg by means of a combination of monetary policy and FX interventions, without requiring the use of capital controls. We explore various constrained optimal policies, when either monetary policy or FX interventions are restricted, and characterize the possibility of central bank’s income gains and losses from FX interventions. Joint with Oleg Itskhoki. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"SODAS Data Discussion 13 October 2023";"SODAS";"2023-10-13";"11:15";"";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"Data Discussion with Magnus Lindgaard Nielsen and Jeppe Søndergaard Johansen.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. First discussion Transforming Prediction Policy: How Novel Machine Learning Methods Can Improve Higher Education Admission By: Magnus Lindgaard Nielsen, Jonas Skjold Raaschou-Pedersen, Emil Chrisander, Julien Grenet, Anna Rogers, David Dreyer Lassen, and Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen. Presenter: Magnus Lindgaard Nielsen Abstract: We investigate how recent advances in machine learning can improve algorithmic policy-making. We base our study in the context of admission to higher education in Denmark, where we exploit a unique large-scale dataset on the historic academic success of students and pre-admission information about them. We estimate a model based on the high-dimensional and sequential information encoded in the complex data of grade transcripts from elementary and high school by leveraging the transformer architecture. Our model improves the performance over standard machine learning models based on aggregate information from transcripts, irrespective of whether student background information is included. To assess our model’s potential for algorithmic policy-making, we embed it in a counterfactual admission prediction policy setup. We find that our model selects students with higher graduation rate compared to selection using actual admission criteria, either based on high school GPA or faculty evaluation. Our model satisfies the fairness concept sufficiency across a wide variety of sensitive attributes. We find that our models exhibit similar fairness properties compared to the current admission policies measured. Our results demonstrate the potential for using novel machine learning techniques to improve prediction policy-making using a new method of data representation for complex tabular data. Second discussion Modeling latent political views using LLM-embeddings By: Tobias Priesholm Gårdhus, Jeppe Søndergaard Johansen, and August Lohse. Presenter: Jeppe Søndergaard Johansen Abstract: This paper considers how to use large language models when exploring latent structures of unstructured data such as text, when some information is available about the ordering of the authors’ views. To illustrate the capabilities of this method, we use it to ideologically scale Facebook posts from politicians, exploiting that we know their party affiliation to map LLM-embeddings of the posts into a 1-dimensional ideological representation. This 1-dimensional representation of the posts has a specific ordering and is restricted to follow a standard normal distribution, allowing for easy interpretation. Concretely, we construct a neural network that maps Facebook posts embeddings to a 1-dimensional layer from which we use ordered probit to predict party affiliation. We consider two distinct ways of restricting the latent space to a standard normal distribution. First, we consider KL-divergence akin to variational auto-encoders, second, we consider using insights from Stein's method to construct an adversarial estimation technique. More broadly we present a way to combine unstructured data (with ordered labels) into a structured representation, that can be used for further analysis. In our example, we consider ideological scaling, but could easily be extended to other use cases."
"Isabelle Mejean, Sciences Po";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-10-16";"14:15";"2023-10-16";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Frictions and adjustments in firm-to-firm trade"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Frictions and adjustments in firm-to-firm trade"" Abstract We build a dynamic Ricardian model of trade with search frictions. The model generates an endogenous network of firm-to-firm trade relationships and price bargaining within and across relationships. Following a foreign shock, firms sourcing inputs from abroad have three options: absorb the shock, renegotiate with their current supplier or switch to a supplier in another country. The size of these adjustment margins depends on the interplay between Ricardian comparative advantages, search frictions and firms’ individual characteristics. We exploit French firm-to-firm trade data to estimate the model structurally and quantify the relative importance of these adjustment margins at sector-country level. Download: link to paper Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Daniel Carvajal, NHH Bergen ";"Scandinavian PhD Student Seminar Exchange arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-10-23";"10:30";"2023-10-23";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Social context, identity and prosocial behavior"". Scandinavian PhD Student Seminar Exchange.";"""Social context, identity and prosocial behavior"" Abstract As society becomes increasingly diverse, a key question arises: does a change in our social context — defined by the individuals we are exposed to — influence our interactions with each other? This paper studies this question using an experiment in a large-scale U.S. sample. Participants make an incentivized allocation towards either a fellow U.S. national or a foreigner, while exogenously exposed to one out of two social contexts with varying levels of diversity in nationalities. I find that facing a diverse context amplifies ingroup bias, driven by both increased allocations towards U.S. nationals and decreased allocations to foreigners relative to allocations in a homogeneous context. Evidence suggests that changes in perceptions of social proximity are a mechanism behind the effects of context on allocations. Finally, exposure to a diverse context influence political views, in a direction consistent with an increased ingroup favoritism towards U.S. nationals. Contact person: Robert Mahlstedt"
"Simon Jäger, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-10-24";"13:15";"2023-10-24";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Worker Representatives"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Worker Representatives"" Abstract We study the selection of worker representatives and how representation affects worker outcomes. We focus on German works councilors---shop-floor representatives elected from the workforce. We paint a comprehensive picture of representatives’ characteristics spanning a period of more than forty years, combining rich administrative panel and representative survey data. Contrary to other domains of power where blue-collar workers are often underrepresented, we document that blue-collar workers have been close to proportionally represented among works councilors for the past four decades with a shrinking representation gap over time. Worker representatives are positively selected in terms of earnings and person-fixed effects. They tend to have more extroverted, more open, and less neurotic personalities, show greater interest in politics, and lean left politically, compared to the populations they represent. Drawing on event study designs around scheduled works council elections, as well as an instrumental variables strategy building on representatives retiring, we study the effects of blue-collar representation on worker outcomes. We find that electing blue-collar representatives protects workers from involuntary layoffs and mildly compresses wages. Our results support the hypothesis that blue-collar representatives place greater emphasis on job security, in line with higher worries about layoffs and risk of unemployment faced by blue-collar workers. Contact person: Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg"
"Edith Zink defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-11-03";"15:00";"2023-11-03";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is: Empirical Essays on the Political Economy of Social Exclusion";"Candidate: Edith Zink, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Empirical Essays on the Political Economy of Social Exclusion Supervisor: Associate Professor Pablo Antonio Selaya Elio Assessment Committee: Søren Leth-Petersen, Professor of Economics, University of CopenhagenJohanna Rickne, Professor of Economics, Stockholm UniversityJames A. Robinson, University Professor, University of Chicago Summary: This thesis is comprised of three independent chapters with case studies of different forms of social exclusion from a political economy perspective. Chapter 1 -- What is the Ideal Number of Women in Politics? Distributive Preferences, Inequality, and Meritocracy -- with Pablo Selaya and Sina Smid In this project, we propose to view the low number of women in politics as a question of distributive justice, and study empirically what would constitute an ideal number. We designed an online survey questionnaire in which we ask respondents to (a) estimate the current number of women in politics; and (b) express their preferences for an ideal number of women in politics subject to a “lottery of nature”. The “lottery of nature” helps respondents to abstract from their personal characteristics and social position. Respondents reveal a noticeable degree of preference for inequality in the distribution of political power between men and women. We probe two mechanisms to explain this finding. First, we show that specialization of female politicians in specific policy areas is not the reason. Second, our survey experiments indicate that especially female respondents believe that having more meritocratic attributes is differentially more important for female than for male political candidates. Our research contributes to understanding the mechanisms that sustain a lower participation of women in politics. Chapter 2 -- After Autocracy: Power Struggles in Tunisia After the Arab Uprisings In this chapter, I examine the territorial redistribution of political power in Tunisia after the Arab Uprisings; a series of mass protests that led to the ousting of the autocratic president, Ben Ali, who had ruled for 24 years until January 2011. The autocratic regime had concentrated power significantly, resulting in social exclusion and widespread frustration that ultimately galvanized the Uprisings. With Ben Ali's departure, Tunisia embarked on a transition away from the concentrated power and exclusion inherent in autocracy. Political decentralization was an important part of Tunisia's new constitution. Municipal elections, however, were not held until May 2018. In these first seven years after Tunisia's transition from autocracy, the central government appointed, and replaced municipal councils by decree. I generate a novel data set on these council appointments from regulative texts and exploit variation across regions and over time to estimate the effect that council appointments had on social conflict behavior (for example demonstrations, riots, or protests). I find that council appointments led to more violent conflict which is driven by repeated replacements of previously appointed councils. I conclude that my results suggest that there was regional variation in the two suggested motivations behind council appointments: trying to gain control against citizens’ will, and exerting control where there was less resistance. Chapter 3 -- The Making of a Ghetto: Residential Moving and Neighborhood Segregation -- with Jack Melbourne Neighborhood segregation is an important source and manifestation of social exclusion. Neighborhood compositions are relevant for social interactions and the availability of local public goods, leading to a form of social exclusion in which residents of disadvantaged neighborhoods do not have access to the same resources as residents of more advantaged neighborhoods. Neighborhood segregation is significantly shaped by peoples' ability and decisions to move into and out of different neighborhoods. In this chapter, we evaluate Denmark's Ghetto Plan, a policy introduced in 2010 with the goal to reduce segregation. We study how this policy affected residential moving decisions. Overall, we find that the policy was largely ineffective, as it did not fundamentally alter neighborhoods socio-economic composition. When we break these effects down into groups of people who moved or stayed in treated neighborhoods, we find that effects are explained by relative changes in the composition of groups of people who chose to move out of and into treated neighborhoods. We discuss that this could be explained by (i) the stigmatization of treated neighborhoods, (ii) avoidance of specific policy measures applied in treated neighborhoods, and (iii) the other incentives to move out that were offered in treated neighborhoods. An electronic copy of the thesis can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Marta Morazzoni, University College London";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-11-06";"14:15";"2023-11-06";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Monetary Policy in a Multimarket Economy: The Role of Markups and Adjustment Costs"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Monetary Policy in a Multimarket Economy: The Role of Markups and Adjustment Costs"" Abstract What is the role of demand elasticities and price adjustment costs in shaping the heterogeneous response of firms’ markups to monetary policy shocks? In this paper, we build a novel heterogeneous firms New Keynesian model where markups evolve endogenously over firms’ life cycle, which we further enrich with firm-specific price rigidities and a multi-market structure. Crucially, firms’ growth is market-specific, leading to heterogeneous size and markup distributions on different markets. Since markets cannot be identified in the data, we show that market shares are badly proxied by firm size and can instead be empirically related to firm age. This is consistent with evidence that old firms in Compustat have a more countercyclical markup response after an unexpected contractionary monetary policy shock. Our framework predicts that dominant firms on each market face a more inelastic demand, which implies a lower pass-through rate from costs to prices, but also higher costs to adjust prices. Therefore, after a contractionary monetary policy shock, dominant firms pass less the reduction in marginal costs to prices compared to competitors, and increase their markups by more, as we document empirically. Both margins point towards important implications for monetary policy transmission and amplification. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Michael Siegenthaler, ETH";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-11-07";"13:15";"2023-11-07";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Role of Wages and Fringe Benefits in Job Search: Evidence from a Large-Scale Online Field Experiment"". CoLab seminar arranged by Department of Economics. ";"""The Role of Wages and Fringe Benefits in Job Search: Evidence from a Large-Scale Online Field Experiment"" Abstract A fundamental question in the job search literature concerns the extent to which job seekers' application behavior is influenced by disparities in wages and fringe benefits between jobs. In this study, we quantify job seekers' compensation preferences by randomly providing users of various Swiss job boards with supplementary information regarding the wage and fringe benefits associated with the positions they are exploring. Our preliminary findings indicate that job seekers exhibit a precisely estimated but small responsiveness to posted wages. A 10% higher wage increases job seekers' probability to view and apply to an ad by 3-5%, suggesting that the firm labor supply elasticity is 0.6-1. Job seekers in lower-paying occupations are more sensitive to wages, implying a larger elasticity. Furthermore, job seekers have a substantial willingness to pay for at least 5 of the 12 fringe benefits in the experiment. On average, they are willing to forgo a 20% higher wage for the opportunity to work from home, 16% for a company car, and 9% for access to firm-sponsored childcare facilities. Job seekers' compensation preferences are similar in male- and female-dominated occupations. Contact person: Daphné Skandalis"
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Phillip Lorenz-Spreen";"Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence, DTU Compute and SODAS";"2023-11-09";"10:30";"2023-11-09";"12:00";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5. ";"We are delighted to host Philipp Lorenz-Spreen (Max Planck Institute for Human Development) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. ";"We are delighted to host Philipp Lorenz-Spreen (Max Planck Institute for Human Development) for a talk in our series on The Science of the Predicted Human. Dr. Lorenz-Spreen research has made important theoretical and empirical contributions to the understanding of how online discourse self organizes, and how democratic decision making can be empowered through online platform design. Please join us for this event on November 9, 10:30am in the SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5. (notice that this is a different location than the previous lectures in the talk series) TITLE:Digital media and democracy: what is changing globally and how to measure it ABSTRACT:Information and communication technology has undergone dramatic developments over the past two decades. Increased peer-to-peer connectivity has led to more self-organised public discourse, but it has also given researchers new tools to quantify precisely this systemic shift. Detailed and longitudinal data from social media allow us to measure and model their network structures and dynamics. However, to get a holistic and global picture, a recent systematic literature review has provided us with a number of dimensions of political behaviour that appear to be influenced by the use of digital media. Our findings show that, while the directions within each dimension are mostly clear, they are distributed differently globally and the mechanisms by which these dimensions are linked are still unknown. Understanding these better is crucial for civil society in democracies worldwide, and I will conclude with a methodological outlook on how we can empirically investigate these missing links in the future. ABOUT PHILLIP LORENZ-SPREEN:Philipp Lorenz-Spreen’s research focuses on the complexity of self-organized online discourse and how to empower democratic and autonomous decision-making through platform design and boosting. His aim is to better understand the interplay between human behaviour and the connectivity and functioning of online platforms, in particular how this affects the public discourse and thus our democracy. But also, to question the status quo and explore how this technology offers untapped opportunities for an improved information ecosystem and participatory democracy lived online. Recently, he has become interested in how the research community can foster the paradigm shift in data access for the common good. He received his PhD from the TU Berlin on empirical methods and theoretical models to describe the dynamics of collective attention. At the LMU in Munich he studied physics with a focus on systems biophysics. In 2021, he received the Prize for Young Scientists from the Leopoldina. THE PREDICTED HUMAN:Being human in 2023 implies being the target of a vast number of predictive infrastructures. In healthcare, algorithms predict not only potential pharmacological cures to disease but also their possible future incidence of those diseases. In governance, citizens are exposed to algorithms that predict - not only their day-to-day behaviors to craft better policy - but also to algorithms that attempt to predict, shape and manipulate their political attitudes and behaviors. In education, children’s emotional and intellectual development is increasingly the product of at-home and at-school interventions shaped around personalized algorithms. And humans worldwide are increasingly subject to advertising and marketing algorithms whose goal is to target them with specific products and ideas they will find palatable. Algorithms are everywhere – as are their intended as well as unintended consequences. The series is arranged with generous support by the Villum Foundation and the Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence."
"SODAS Data Discussion 10 November 2023";"SODAS";"2023-11-10";"11:15";"";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"Data Discussion with Dario Ramon Landwehr and Anders Saabye Møller.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. SODAS DATA DISCUSSION: SDS STUDENTS EDITION Join us for November’s Data Discussion, which features two students from our Social Data Science program presenting ongoing work. First discussion Measuring the Rhetorical Mainstreaming of Radical Right Parties through Supervised Machine Learning Presenter: Dario Ramon Landwehr Abstract: Once insurgent outsiders, radical right parties in Europe are now in many cases entrenched features of national party systems. Many are now faced with the option of collaborating with mainstream parties in government, either as coalition partners or support parties. Can they do so while maintaining their radical edge? We provide new evidence on how radical right party rhetoric changes during and after government collaboration. Using machine learning methods applied to around 1.5 million parliamentary speeches across five countries, we develop a measure of the rhetorical distinctiveness of radical right parties at the speech level. We then estimate differential trends in distinctiveness for government collaborators using difference-in-differences models. We find that when collaborating with government parties, radical right parties consistently use less distinctive rhetoric. Distinctiveness rebounds after radical right parties stop collaborating. Our findings shed new light on the mainstreaming of the radical right and the dynamics driving party system change. Second discussion Behavioural Segmentation of Danish Video-On-Demand Streaming By: Anders Saabye Møller Abstract: What can be learned from segmenting the Video-On-Demand (VOD) streaming market in Denmark, and how may rich behavioural data be segmented? This industrial thesis, partnered with the Danish Broadcasting Corporation (DR), aims to pinpoint behavioural segments and understand how they engage with public service offerings. My dataset of 3,800 panelists tracks viewing across all devices, from major streaming platforms to social media, with more granular data for the Danish VOD streaming platforms. Though UMAP-HDBSCAN cluster analysis has been applied, it falls short in capturing data's longitudinal nuances—a gap potentially bridged by unsupervised learning methods like LSTM networks. I will present initial findings and welcome a discussion on the affordances of the data. "
"Kristian U. O. Larsen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-11-10";"13:00";"2023-11-10";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is: Gender Inequality, Labor Supply and New Structural Methods";"Candidate: Kristian Urup Olesen Larsen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Gender Inequality, Labor Supply and New Structural Methods Supervisors: Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Søren Leth-Petersen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Thomas Jørgensen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of CopenhagenSpencer Bastani, Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Uppsala UniversityHerdis Steingrimsdottir, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School Summary: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters, each made up of a research paper. While the three papers do not share a common topic or method, they are all influenced the CEBI research agenda. Chapters one and two have in common their reliance on the Danish administrative data and the use of micro-econometric methods, while the third chapter carries out methodological work using reinforcement learning. Together the chapters span from dynamic structural modelling through contributions to the estimation of tax elasticities to issues of gender inequality. Each of the chapters can be read independently of each other, as each of them contains all the relevant references and appendices. Chapter 1: Couples and Gender Inequality The first chapter documents the transition from single to living in couples as a novel source of gender inequality. When women enter their first cohabiting couple — typically around their early to mid-20s — they experience an average income penalty of 5% of their expected annual income had they continued living as singles. This effect comes on top of an income loss deriving from increased fertility and thus increased exposure to the child penalty. Men are unaffected by the transition, which means couple-formation by itself contribute to the gender inequality in income. I investigate two main theoretical mechanisms with the potential to explain the existence of a cohabitation penalty; household specialization and gender norms. While specialization into homemaker/breadwinner roles does not seem to contribute to the cohabitation penalty, I show evidence that suggests adherence to traditional gender norms, which are transmitted across generations, is driving the magnitude of the penalty. Chapter 2: Micro vs Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort The second chapter, co-authored with Henrik Kleven, Claus Thustrup Kreiner and Jakob Egholt Søgaard, develops a new model of earnings responses to taxes when the returns to effort are dynamic. In this model returns to effort accrue with delay, because performance evaluations in the form of job or occupation switches happen stochastically. We provide descriptive empirical evidence that supports our theoretical model, and some that explicitly contradicts the classical static model of labor supply. In our model, earnings responses around discrete job-switches (partially) identify the long-run macro elasticity of labor supply, while approaches that include job-stayers are attenuated. We provide quasi-experimental evidence on earnings responses to taxes using a Danish tax reform, and exploiting earnings variation due to job-switches. We find that the macro elasticity based on job-switchers is much larger than the micro elasticity, because the standard approach does not account for dynamic compensation effects. This chapter is also available as NBER Working Paper 31549. Chapter 3: Using Reinforcement Learning for Solving Dynamic Discrete-time Problems in Economics In the third chapter, co-authored with Joachim Kahr Rasmussen, we show that modern methods from the field of reinforcement learning can be used to solve dynamic problems of high relevance to economists. The traditional approaches to dynamic programming favors precision and exhaustiveness at the cost of being inappropriate for high-dimensional problems. Reinforcement learning on the other hand trades off accuracy for better generalization to higher dimensional problems. This makes RL agents attractive for a certain type of economic problem where dimensionality is a practical constraint and researchers are willing to forego some precision in order to approximate solutions in higher dimensions. We demonstrate applications of Reinforcement Learning across problems with discrete as well as continuous state and action spaces, and find that RL shows promising potential in dealing efficiently with high dimensionalities. We also highlight that time-efficient solutions using RL rely on optimally tuned hyperparameters - a process that in itself can be tremendously costly in terms of computational power. This chapter also appeared in the PhD dissertation of Joachim Kahr Rasmussen. An electronic copy of the thesis can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Data Ethics in Europe: Uncovering Pathways and Barriers to Political Influence";"Danish Data Ethics Council and Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"2023-11-10";"13:30";"";"17:00";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K.";"Conference on date ethics in Europe hosted by the The Danish Data Ethics Council and Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS)";"Data Ethics in Europe We find ourselves in an era defined by digitalization, where digital technologies profoundly impact democracies and the quality of human life. The European Union (EU) has emerged as a prominent force in establishing legal frameworks to ensure the responsible use of data and digital technologies. Key initiatives, such as GDPR, DSA, and upcoming legislation concerning AI, European Media Freedom, and Digital Markets, have been significantly informed by ethics boards, including the distinguished High-Level Expert Group on Artificial Intelligence. This conference brings together internationally renowned researchers and members of the Danish Data Ethics Council to delve into the defining characteristics of ethical data practices within a European context. We will explore the most pressing current issues and consider the opportunities and challenges in shaping the impact of ethical data governance on politics and society. The conference will be moderated by Astrid Haug. Program 1.30 PM - 1.45 PM: Welcome: Data Ethics in a European Context By Professor Rebecca Adler-Nissen, SODAS and Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen and Associate Professor Kristoffer Albris, SODAS, University of Copenhagen. 1.45 PM - 3.00 PM: Keynote Session: Data Ethics in the Age of Generative AI: Challenges for the European Context By Professor Louise Amoore, Durham University, UK (45 min talk, 30 min Q&A). 3.00 PM – 3.15 PM: Coffee break 3.15 PM – 4.00 PM: Panel Discussion: Data Ethical Influence in Politics – Opportunities and Challenges Panel includes: Professor Rebecca Adler-Nissen, SODAS, University of Copenhagen. Professor Louise Amoore, Durham University, UK. Professor Mikkel Flyverbom, Copenhagen Business School, member of The Danish Data Ethics Council. Johan Busse, Chairman of The Danish Data Ethics Council. 4.00 PM – 4.15 PM: Closing Remarks By Johan Busse, Chairman of The Danish Data Ethics Council. 4.15 - : Reception and networking Enjoy beers and snacks, and mingle with fellow attendees. Sign up here. "
"Shan Huang defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-11-15";"17:30";"2023-11-15";"19:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is: Essays on the economics of health care provision";"Candidate: Shan Huang, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays on the economics of health care provision Supervisor: Hannes Ullrich, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Meltem Daysal, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Jonathan Kolstad, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of California Berkeley Iris Kesternich, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Hamburg Summary: This thesis comprises four self-contained chapters. Each chapter builds on empirical evidence from microdata in order to address a novel research question from the field of health economics. The chapters explore topics related to the behavior of healthcare providers, the value of data, and the sustainability of health insurance systems. By collectively investigating these topics, this thesis aims to advance our understanding of efficient healthcare provision. Chapter 1: 'Provider effects in antibiotic prescribing: Evidence from physician exits', investigates how the practice styles of primary care providers contribute to antibiotic consumption. Policymakers strive to reduce antibiotic consumption, a major contributor to bacterial resistance. However, lower prescribing levels may jeopardize patient health. We explore whether targeting physicians' prescribing styles can effectively reduce antibiotic use without compromising patient health. To differentiate provider effects from patient effects, we leverage physician exits from primary care in Denmark, where physicians and patients are exogenously separated due to clinic closures, physician moves, or retirements. Our findings reveal that practice styles account for 49% of antibiotic prescribing differences between providers, implying that standardizing practice styles could reduce differences by half. However, the effect magnitude is even greater (83%) when restricting to second-line antibiotic use. Moreover, higher prescribing intensities do not indicate greater efficiency at the margin but are instead associated with more treatment failures and prescriptions without diagnostic tests, and no reduction in the risk of patient hospitalization for infection. This study is coauthored with Hannes Ullrich. Chapter 2: 'Assessing the value of data for prediction policies: The case of antibiotic prescribing', explores the benefits of linking separate administrative data to improve targeted health care provision in the context of antibiotic prescribing. We treat antibiotic prescribing as a prediction policy problem and employ a machine learning algorithm trained to identify bacterial urinary tract infections in primary care. We measure improvements in prediction quality and antibiotic targeting by evaluating the algorithm's predictions against physician decisions. We find that including simple demographic information leads to considerable improvements in prediction quality, measured by the area under the operating curve (AUC). Additionally, including patients' rich medical histories improves AUC only modestly but reduces antibiotic use substantially. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing data needs based on policy objectives and not solely on prediction quality. This chapter is coauthored with Michael Ribers and Hannes Ullrich. Chapter 3: 'The role of physician altruism in the physician-industry relationship: Evidence from combining experimental and observational data', examines the link between altruism, a professional norm among health care providers, and physicians' ties to the pharmaceutical industry. We match data on altruistic preferences for 280 physicians in the US, obtained from a revealed preference economic experiment, with information on their receipt of monetary and in-kind transfers from pharmaceutical firms, along with claims data on their drug prescriptions. We find that physicians with less altruistic preferences receive industry transfers with a monetary value that is, on average, 112.55% higher than those with strong altruistic preferences, indicating selective targeting by pharmaceutical firms. Moreover, we observe that a positive association between industry transfers and higher overall drug costs or brand prescribing rates is primarily driven by physicians with less altruistic preferences. Our study highlights the role of professional norms in physicians' clinical behavior. This chapter is coauthored with Anirban Basu and Jing Li. Chapter 4: 'The effect of a ban on gender-based pricing on risk selection in the German health insurance market', examines the financial sustainability of health insurance systems by studying the impact of the unisex mandate -- a regulatory change that banned gender-based pricing -- on risk segmentation between public and private health insurance in Germany. While public health insurance companies cannot set prices based on expected health expenses, private health insurance companies consider health risk, including gender, as pricing factors. The unisex mandate made private health insurance relatively more appealing to women and less appealing to men. Based on survey data from the German socio-economic panel, we provide empirical evidence that the unisex mandate substantially increased women's switching from public to private insurance. The effect varies across employment groups and aligns with different financial incentives. The changes induced by the unisex mandate worsen the private sector's risk pool and improve the public sector's risk pool, as women have on average higher health expenses than men. Our study highlights how regulatory changes can impact risk segmentation in the health insurance market. This chapter is coauthored with Martin Salm. An electronic copy of the thesis can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Tech Policy Days";"Crown Princess Mary Center, Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science and Department of Political Science";"2023-11-16";"09:00";"2023-11-17";"16:00";"Copenhagen";" Tech Policy Days will take place in Copenhagen 16th and 17th of November";" Your web browser does not support iframes, which means that the video Tech Policy Days (Updated with new logos) cannot play. Tech Policy Days will take place in Copenhagen 16th and 17th of November We are delighted to invite you to Tech Policy Days hosted by the Confederation of Danish Industry, Danish Tech Startups and the University of Copenhagen with generous support from Industriens Fond from November 16 – 17, 2023. Tech Policy Days is the first annual conference of the CPH Tech Policy Committee. It brings together key actors in the Danish and international tech policy field to discuss current and future tech policy challenges and add new perspectives to the global tech agenda. Over the course of two days, we engage in meaningful conversations about Denmark’s technological trajectory on a global scale drawing on state-of-the-art research. You will gain new insights on emerging technologies, data governance dilemmas and the evolving international tech policy landscape. At the core of these discussions are responsible, democratic, and ethical considerations. Join us in Copenhagen for two days of exciting events and debates with international guests. Read more about the program below and sign up for the events. We look forward to seeing you! Program Thursday November 16th Time Event 11.00 - 12.30 The geopolitics of innovation: How can democracies win the tech race? In 2000, Europe had 41 of the world’s top 100 companies; by 2021, only 15 remained. To bolster our global influence, Danish and European leaders must address rising competition and the challenge of losing out on new global leaders based in Denmark and Europe. Join us on the 16th November at 11:00 am in Matrikel1 along with key thought leaders to explore innovative ideas together and create concrete initiatives to fortify Denmark and Europe as economic and technological leaders in a complex global economy. Come and join us - sign up here. When and where When: November 16th, 11:00 – 12:30 Where: Danish Tech Startups, Matrikel1 – Mesh Community, 10 Højbro Plads, 1200 København K 15.00 - 18.00 A Digital Sovereign Europe and what it might mean for industry DI Digital and the University of Copenhagen invite you to an afternoon and evening with debates and talks on ‘A Digital Sovereign Europe and what it might mean for industry’. Expect to get updated on research as well as the latest policy and regulative developments within digital sovereignty and what this development means for companies. The afternoon is followed by a reception and talk: Governing the Information Environment? Calls continue growing to regulate artificial intelligence, counter disinformation, and hold social media companies to account. But how can we govern the information environment if we don’t understand it? Alicia Wanless, Director of the Partnership for Countering Influence Operations at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, will explore the challenges a broken research model poses to developing informed policy for a complex system, and what can be done about it. Come and join us for the debate - sign up here. When and where When: November 16th, 15:00 - 18:00. Where: Confederation of Danish Industry (DI), Industriens Hus, H. C. Andersens Blvd. 18, 1553 København Friday November 17th Time Event 11.00 - 12.00 CPH Tech Policy Youth Committee – Youth in a digital world We are delighted to invite you to the official launch of the CPH Tech Policy Youth Committee, a committee consisting of students with an interest and a desire to impact the Tech Policy Debate in Denmark and beyond. Professor Rebecca Adler-Nissen will introduce the committee, followed by a panel discussion focusing on the importance of integrating youth perspectives in the Tech Policy debate. Our panel will deal with questions like – what are the opportunities and risks of growing up in an increasingly digitalized era? How can younger generations engage in shaping the digital landscape? Coffee and snacks will be provided. Come join us for the launch - sign up here. When and where When: November 17th, 11:00 - 12:00 Where: ’Forskningskollektivet’ Room 4.1.18 (building 4, first floor, room 18) on UCPH’s CSS-campus. Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1123 Copenhagen Contact If you have any questions, don't hesitate to contact us. Sigrid Marie Lassen, Crown Princess Mary Center +45 93 56 53 35sml@samf.ku.dk Rebecca Adler Nissen, Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science+45 30 22 40 75ran@sodas.ku.dk "
"Efrem Castelnuovo, University of Padova";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-11-16";"11:00";"2023-11-16";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Uncertainty and the Business Cycle When Inflation is High"". Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Uncertainty and the Business Cycle When Inflation is High"" Abstract We employ a nonlinear stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR framework to investigate the effects of macroeconomic uncertainty shocks on the business cycle. We document a larger positive inflation response and a bigger drop in real activity when inflation is high. We interpret our empirical findings with a nonlinear New Keynesian framework featuring second-moment shocks and trend inflation. The interaction between high trend inflation and firms’ upward pricing bias generates a large price dispersion that exacerbates the macroeconomic effects induced by the uncertainty shock. In our model, an aggressive monetary policy response to inflation in the presence of high trend inflation replicates the allocation. Co-authors: Giovanni Pellegrino and Laust Ladegård Særkjær Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Katja Mann, CBS";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-11-20";"14:15";"2023-11-20";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Pension reform and wealth inequality: theory and evidence"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Pension reform and wealth inequality: theory and evidence"" Abstract A growing literature explores reasons for rising wealth inequality, but is mostly silent on the role of pension systems despite their well-understood influence on life-cycle savings. This paper develops a simple life-cycle model to lay bare the primary theoretical mechanisms connecting pension systems, asset accumulation, and the wealth distribution. Mandated fully-funded plans transform individuals with lower incomes, often characterized as low savers, into asset owners, and may also imply a more equal wealth distribution than pay-as-you-go-based systems. To test the empirical validity of these predictions, the paper explores a pension reform in Denmark, a country that witnessed declining wealth inequality over the last decades. In a calibrated life-cycle model employing unique register data, the Danish pension reform emerges as a key factor explaining the downward trend in wealth inequality. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"SODAS Lecture: How Machine Learning can Advance Theory Formation in the Social Sciences";"SODAS";"2023-11-24";"11:00";"";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS Lecture with Associate Professor Caspar van Lissa, Tilburg University.";"Title: How Machine Learning can Advance Theory Formation in the Social Sciences Abstract: Theories are the vehicle of cumulative knowledge acquisition. At this time, however, many social scientific theories are insufficiently precise to derive testable hypotheses. This limits the advancement of our principled understanding of development. This problem cannot be resolved by improving the way deductive (confirmatory) research is conducted (e.g., through preregistration and replication), because theory formation requires inductive (exploratory) research. In this presentation, I argue that machine learning can help advance theory formation in the social sciences, because it enables rigorous exploration of patterns in data. I will discuss specific advantages of machine learning, explain core methodological concepts, introduce relevant methods, and describe how data-driven insights are consolidated into theory. Machine learning automates exploration, and incorporates checks and balances to ensure generalizable results. It can assist in phenomenon detection and offers a more holistic understanding of the phenomena associated with an outcome or process of interest. Bio: Caspar van Lissa is associate professor of social data science at the department of Methodology & Statistics, chair of the Open Science Community Tilburg, and member of the Tilburg Young Academy. His research addresses the epistemological implications of machine learning for theory formation in the social sciences, evidence synthesis – summarizing existing research using machine learning-informed meta-analysis and text mining systematic review – and open reproducible science. He is an advocate for open source research software and has (co-)authored ten R-packages."
"David Wiczer, Atlanta Fed";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-11-27";"14:15";"2023-11-27";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt"" Abstract Using detailed micro data, we document that households often use ""stimulus"" checks to pay down debt, especially those with low net wealth-to-income ratios. To rationalize these patterns, we introduce a borrowing price schedule into an otherwise standard incomplete markets model. Because interest rates rise with debt, borrowers have increasingly larger incentives to use an additional dollar to reduce debt service payments rather than consume. Using our calibrated model, we then study whether and how this marginal propensity to repay debt (MPRD) alters the aggregate implications of fiscal transfers. We uncover a trade-off between stimulus and insurance, as high–debt individuals gain considerably from transfers, but consume relatively little immediately. We show how this mechanism can lower short-run fiscal multipliers, but sustain aggregate consumption for longer. Co-authors: Gizem Koşar, Davide Melcangi and Laura Pilossoph Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Anne Brenøe, University of Zurich";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-11-28";"13:15";"2023-11-28";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Math skills, perceptions of fit, and occupational choice"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Math skills, perceptions of fit, and occupational choice"" Abstract We study how beliefs about math skills and fit affect occupational choice among Swiss students who are about to apply to apprenticeships. Although there is no gender difference in math skills, we document a substantial gender gap in preferences and search for math-intensive apprenticeships. We conduct a field experiment that randomizes the provision of gender-specific information on math ability and fit in gender-incongruent occupations. The intervention increases both boys' and girls' perceptions of fit in gender-incongruent occupations by 0.09-0.16 standard deviations. Furthermore, it increases boys' (girls') probability of searching for information about any gender-incongruent occupation over the following two weeks by 46 (34) percent and leads to an increase in their plans to apply for (trial) apprenticeships in these occupations. The effects on plans to apply for gender-incongruent occupations are driven by boys with low-math skills and girls with high-math skills. Contact person: Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg"
"SODAS Data Discussion 1 December 2023";"SODAS";"2023-12-01";"11:15";"";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Fabian Beer and Elisabetta Salvai for our Data Discussion series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefor invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Fabian Beer. Title: Explainability in the Field: How the »Black Box Problem« of AI is practically dealt with by a Predictive Policing Unit in Germany. Abstract: The last few years have seen the rise of a research field by the name of Explainable AI (XAI). At the core of XAI lies the attempt to solve the so-called »Black Box problem«, a term that refers to the difficulty of providing an explanation for how exactly a machine learning (ML) model has arrived at an output. This problem, grounded in the opacity of the decision-making logic of some ML models, is said to be particularly acute in domains of “high-risk decision-making” such as military, finance, medicine or jurisdiction. In my presentation I will explore how the »Black Box problem« appears and is dealt with by the users themselves in one of these practical contexts: Predictive Policing. I will focus on a specific instance where a predictive policing unit in Germany, responsible for managing a random forest model that predicts burglaries in specific areas of the city, answered a request for an explanation of the model’s predictions by a local police department. Discussion 2 Presenter: Elisabetta Salvai. Title: Fair ranking by Biased random walk. Abstract: Ranking algorithms play a significant role in ordering information in networks and identifying important and influential nodes. In this study, we investigate the fairness of the widely used PageRank algorithm in networks of nodes with binary attributes. We propose a new fairness definition rooted in demographic parity in the top-ranked positions, where the observer’s attention is predominantly concentrated. This definition is based on the idea that a fair ranking has the same proportion of attributes in the top-ranked positions as in the whole network. To improve the fairness of rankings, we then study a modification of the PageRank algorithm where we add a parameter that biases the random walk exploration at the core of the algorithm. This parameter changes the choice probability of the random walkers based on the degree of the neighbouring nodes. We study this biased PageRank algorithm, in both synthetic and real-word networks, for different values of the bias parameter. Our aim is to determine the effect of this targeted bias in enhancing ranking fairness."
"Sarah Schroeder, Aarhus University";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-12-04";"14:15";"2023-12-04";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Mobility Frictions, Remittances and the Distributional Effects of International Trade"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Mobility Frictions, Remittances and the Distributional Effects of International Trade"" Abstract In this paper, we study the role of households’ heterogeneous migration decisions and the associated remittances in distributing the benefits of growing trade across space. Relative to ’complete migration’, partial migration implies that part of the household remains in the rural area, while at least one household member migrates to an urban area, usually for better employment opportunities. Here, remittances capture domestic, inter-regional transfers between urban and rural members of the household. We use Chinese household and trade data to establish novel empirical facts that connect trade, migration, and remittances. We quantify the role of diverse modes of migration and remittances by explicitly incorporating these channels in a spatial general equilibrium model of trade and migration. Our quantitative model delivers novel insights about the distributional implications of international trade in the presence of mobility frictions and heterogeneous forms of domestic migration. We further investigate the interplay between trade and migration policy in shaping aggregate welfare.” Co-authored with Ray Zhang from Sun Yat-Sen University. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"Andreas Kostøl, Arizona State University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2023-12-12";"13:15";"2023-12-12";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Employee Turnover and Selection on Layoff Costs"". CoLab seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Employee Turnover and Selection on Layoff Costs"" Abstract While layoff causes long-lasting earnings losses, workers sometimes leave their employer in anticipation of it. In this paper, we examine how this selection affects layoff costs using the random assignment of bankruptcy judges as an instrument for layoff risk. We find that employer shutdown reduces five-year earnings by 24% while one-quarter of employees avoid layoff. Furthermore, turnover triples and wage losses fall by 56% when moving from weak to strong labor markets. Using a job ladder framework, we show that this turnover biases micro-level estimates of layoff costs by 15% and overstates the value of employers and public insurance. Joint work with Morten H. Grindaker and Matthew C. Merkle. Link to most recent version Contact person: Jakob Egholt Søgaard "
"SODAS Lecture: The Legacies of the Dead: Using Gravestones to Study the Causes and Consequences of Religiosity";"SODAS";"2023-12-15";"11:00";"";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"A lecture on how to use information extracted from the gravestone pictures of deceased U.S. citizens to derive ecologically valid insights into religiosity.";"Title: The Legacies of the Dead: Using Gravestones to Study the Causes and Consequences of Religiosity. Abstract About 84% of the world's population are affiliated with a religious tradition, and in the U.S., approximately 70% of the population report that religion is at least somewhat relevant to them. It is, thus, important to understand how being religious affects people and why people become religious. In this talk, I use information extracted from the gravestone pictures of deceased U.S. citizens to derive ecologically valid insights into religiosity. First, focusing on the consequences of religiosity, I will present a series of studies showcasing how gravestone data can be used to study the link between religiosity and mortality. Using manual coding (N = 6,400) and machine learning (N > 5 Mio.), we find (a) that gravestones provide valid religiosity information and (b) that religious people enjoy longer lives, but only if they reside in religious areas. Evidently then, a longer life is not an inherent consequence of being religious. Second, focusing on the causes of religiosity, I present findings on the effects of war on religiosity. Specifically, we linked our large-scale gravestone data to a famous natural experiment: the Vietnam Draft Lottery (a random-assignment mechanism that drafted male U.S. residents into Vietnam). We find that being randomly drafted into the Vietnam War substantially increases the probability of displaying religious gravestone imagery. As such, our results suggests that war experiences make people more religious. In concert, our research speaks to fundamental questions about the nature of religiosity and showcases the potential of studying the legacies of the dead. Bio Tobias Ebert is Assistant Professor of Behavioral Science at the Institute of Behavioral Science & Technology at the University of St. Gallen (Switzerland). He received his PhD from the University of Mannheim (Germany) in 2020 and has been working as a postdoc at the University of Mannheim and at Columbia University in New York (USA). In his research, Tobias uses large-scale psychological data to study spatial variation in psychological attributes and the relevance of this variation for individuals and society."
"Pernille Plato defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2023-12-21";"09:00";"2023-12-21";"11:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is: Empirical Essays on Labor Market Disruptions: Automation, Worker Health, and Human Capital Responses";"Candidate: Pernille Plato, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Empirical Essays on Labor Market Disruptions: Automation, Worker Health, and Human Capital Responses Supervisor: Jakob Roland Munch, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Morten G. Olsen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Frederic Warzynski, Professor, Department of Economics, Aarhus University Juanna Joensen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Chicago Summary: This Ph.D. dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters. The three chapters study different research questions and apply different methods in doing so, but they share a common focus on how firms and workers navigate through economic transformations. This Ph.D. dissertation was completed as part of the 4+4 Ph.D. program at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen. Please note that Chapter 1 builds on and repeats text from the master’s thesis completed as a part of the program. In the first chapter, I study how automation affect firm market power. My findings show that automated firms are larger, more productive, and charge higher markups compared to non-automated firms. I show that this wedge in markups has consistently increased over the past decades. By matching each automating firm to a non-automating firm in the same industry with similar size and growth patterns before the adoption decision, I show that firm markups steadily increase in the years following the first adoption of automation capital. Additionally, I find that automated firms gain market shares from similar non-automated firms within the same industries and demonstrate greater resilience, being less likely to exit the market compared to non-automated competitors. Taken together, these findings suggest that firms with already high markups invest in automation technology to further improve their competitiveness and increase markups. I perform a decomposition of the aggregate markup that underscore the close link between changes in the aggregate markup and automation. The observed initial decline in the aggregate markup primarily stems from non-automated firms, while entry and reallocation f economic activity towards automated firms, that simultaneously are larger, charge higher markups, and charge higher markups as they expand, have pushed the aggregate markup upwards. In the second chapter, we examine how automation decisions by firms affect the health of workers. To do so, we focus on a cohort of manufacturing workers with a strong attachment to the labor market, and their initial employer in particular, before the arrival of industrial robots in the manufacturing sector. We follow these workers’ health records over the next decades, regardless of transitions into unemployment, changing of employers, occupation, industry, etc. At the same time, we are able to track the robot investments of the initial employer through imports of industrial robots in the foreign trade statistics. We find that industrial robots reduce workplace injuries, especially for individuals working in physical occupations prior to the surge of industrial robots in the Danish manufacturing sector. In contrast to the improvements in workplace safety, we find that robots result in more hospitalizations due to stress, depression, and burnout among employees. Opposite to the improvements in workplace safety, many types of employees suffer the distress from robots throughout the organization. In the third and final chapter, we study investments in human capital after loss of physical ability. To do so, we utilize that workplace injuries occur quasi-randomly within occupations. Our first finding is that injured workers enroll in full-time higher education programs after the injury, while short, non-degree training courses as well as basic and vocational degree programs see almost no uptake by injured workers. Exploiting differences in eligibility driven by prior vocational training, we find that higher education moves injured workers from disability benefits to fulltime employment. We find that reskilled workers end up in higher paying, cognitively intensive occupations, and that reskilling shields injured workers from depression. Combining the effects of reskilling on earnings, taxes, and transfers in a cost-benefit framework, we find that reskilling subsidies for injured workers pay for themselves four times over. In the final part of the paper, we evaluate the counterfactual effects of reskilling more injured workers. We find that injured workers reskill based on their idiosyncratic returns, such that expanding the program implies rolling it out to workers with lower returns to reskilling. We use the marginal treatment effects to determine the optimal rates of reskilling for injured workers and find that the current rates are especially sub-optimal for middle-aged workers between. An electronic copy of the thesis can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Philipp Grübener, Goethe University Frankfurt (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-09";"10:30";"2024-01-09";"11:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Firm Dynamics and Earnings Risk” Abstract We study the role of firm and worker level shocks for individual labor earnings dynamics. A key feature of the distribution of earnings changes is excess kurtosis, with substantial earnings changes for a significant proportion of workers. Using Danish matched employer-employee data, we show that large worker earnings changes occur along the entire firm revenue growth distribution but more frequently in the tails. In particular, large earnings losses are more likely in shrinking firms due to more employment separations, but also because of large wage losses of stayers. We interpret the evidence through the lens of an equilibrium search model with two-sided heterogeneity. The model reveals that while worker shocks account for the majority of earnings fluctuations, firm shocks generate around a third of endogenous separations and large wage losses for stayers. Finally, the model implies significant endogenous responses of earnings dynamics to policy changes aiming to insure workers directly or indirectly through firms. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"Christian Pröbsting, KU Leuven (Department Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-10";"10:30";"2024-01-10";"11:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Department Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of a Carbon Tax” Abstract Which firms and households will be most impacted by a carbon tax? To answer that question I set up a heterogenous agent, multi-sector model with putty-clay technology. A tax of $100 per ton of carbon emissions cuts emissions by 25% after 5 years, but it also reduces output by 2% in the short run and 5% in the long run. In the short term, the tax is progressive despite poorer households spending more on carbon-intensive goods, the prices of which are rising. The putty-clay model’s inherent complementarity of capital and energy causes a sharp decline in capital income, a major source of income for top earners, and the resulting decline in investment causes job cuts in the capital goods-producing industries that employ high-income earners. In the longer run, as factor prices and capital stocks adjust, the tax incidence flattens with middle class households loosing 2% of their real income, somewhat less than low-income and high-income households. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Marlon Azinovic, University of Pennsylvania (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-11";"10:30";"2024-01-11";"11:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Intergenerational Consequences of Rare Disasters” Abstract We analyze the intergenerational consequences of rare disasters in a calibrated overlapping generations model featuring realistic household portfolios and equilibrium asset prices. Households own houses and additionally trade in bonds and equity. In a disaster, young households suffer from reduced labor income and tightened borrowing constraints. Older households lose a large portion of their savings invested in risky assets. The relative winners are households shortly before retirement, who have a comparatively stable labor income, are not borrowing constrained, and are young enough to benefit from large returns of assets purchased during the disaster at depressed prices. In order to solve the model, we advance contemporary deep learning based solution methods along two complementary dimensions. First, we introduce an economics-inspired neural network architecture that, by construction, ensures that market clearing conditions are always satisfied. Second, we illustrate how to solve models with multiple assets by introducing them step-wise into the economy. These two innovations enable us to reduce the number of equilibrium conditions, that are not fulfilled exactly, and to substantially improve the stability of the training algorithm. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl "
"Jeppe Elholm Madsen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-11";"14:00";"2024-01-11";"16:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is: Trade-offs in Social Insurance: Balancing Insurance and Work Incentives for Health ImpairedIndividuals";"Candidate: Jeppe Elholm Madsen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Trade-offs in Social Insurance: Balancing Insurance and Work Incentives for Health Impaired Individuals Supervisor: Søren Leth-Petersen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Mette Ejrnæs, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Rune Vejlin, Professor, Department of Economics, Aarhus University Stefan Staubli, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Calgary Summary: Chapter 1 (w. Anders Holm): The rapid expansion of disability insurance (DI) programs in Western countries raises questions about the genuine inability of program participants to work and the labour market barriers they face. This paper examines the effects of a Danish labour market reform that replaced the Danish DI program with a combination of DI and a ""workfare program"" (WP) with tailored assistance for individuals facing employment barriers. After the reform, $80$ percent of the DI program inflow was directed into the WP for people under the age of 40. The transition into employment is positively affected by the reform, with employment primarily being within subsidized employment. Additionally, we find that the positive effect into subsidized employment comes at the cost of a $15$ percent lower income in the long run. We contribute previous research focusing on individuals at the margin of enrolling into DI because our data allows us to focus on average enrollment. Doing so, we find only small positive effects on employment and negative effects on income. Chapter 2: The second paper investigates the effects of a 2014 policy reform on paid sick leave in Denmark. The reform reduced benefits by up to 40 %, shortened sick leave eligibility, and introduced a return-to-work activation program. Despite an increase in municipal costs for activation efforts targeting sick leave recipients having doubled, there was no significant improvement in employment rates. The study finds that a typical program recipient has no wealth and is burdened with a debt equivalent to 10 months' worth of banking debt. Given the absence of savings and significant debt, the reduction in benefits, coupled with no improvement in employment opportunities, results in a direct reduction in consumption possibilities for those participating in the program. Chapter 3: This paper delves into the welfare implications of alterations in the paid sick leave program. Leveraging detailed Danish administrative data, I introduce a structural search model, rooted in traditional search and discrete choice models. The model captures the interplay between an individual's health status, age, job offers, education, and their decision to either return to work or prolong their sick leave. The model facilitates simulations to understand the consequences of enforcing stricter eligibility criteria for paid sick leave extensions. The findings indicate that although enforcing stricter criteria can result in fiscal savings, it is crucial to recognize that these savings are predominantly borne by those with the poorest health, as they face the most significant reductions in transfer payments. An electronic copy of the thesis can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Ruslana Datsenko, University of Oslo (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-12";"10:30";"2024-01-12";"11:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Monetary Policy Transmission and Firm-Level Volatility: Uncertainty Versus Risks"" Abstract I study the role of firm-level volatility and default risk in the transmission of monetary policy to investments in fixed assets. Empirically, I find that firms facing lower volatility are more responsive to monetary policy than firms facing higher volatility. I demonstrate that this finding is due to two channels through which volatility determines monetary policy transmission. First, volatility increases default risk, increasing borrowed funds' price. Second, volatility increases firms' hesitancy to invest (real options channel). Contrasting with the earlier literature, I show that the real options channel rather than the default risk channel matters for monetary policy transmission. Moreover, I find that the channel through which the monetary policy transmission takes place - real options or risk premium - determines whether the monetary policy increases or decreases aggregate capital relative to a model without heterogeneity, adjustment costs, and financial frictions. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Claudia Gentile, University of Zurich (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-15";"13:00";"2024-01-15";"14:15";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Relying on Intermittency: Clean Energy, Storage, and Innovation in a Macro Climate Model” Abstract The transition to clean energy technologies is essential to reduce CO2 emissions. One significant challenge associated with renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, is their intermittency. I study the intermittency problem by introducing a novel micro-founded energy sector with directed technical change in a macro climate model. I show that the aggregate elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy crucially depends on the development of storage technologies. If the storage technology is not developed, the economy is trapped in a scenario in which the elasticity of substitution eventually becomes zero. Without policies, the provision of storage technologies is inefficiently low, impeding the transition towards clean, intermittent technologies. In the optimal allocation, the clean energy transition is accelerated with an initial clean energy share increasing from 25% to 70% and a reallocation of all R&D resources away from dirty energy towards clean energy and, in particular, energy storage technologies. The introduction of clean energy subsidies under the US Inflation Reduction Act is successful in increasing the short-run clean energy share, but insufficient to solve the intermittency problem. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen "
"Ofer Setty, Tel Aviv University (Department Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-17";"10:30";"2024-01-17";"11:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Department Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Universal Basic Income: Inspecting the Mechanisms” Abstract We examine the mechanisms driving the aggregate and distributional impacts of Universal Basic Income (UBI) through model analysis of various UBI programs and financing schemes. The main adverse effect is the distortionary tax increase to fund UBI, reducing labor force participation. Secondary channels are a decline in demand for self-insurance, depressing aggregate capital, and a positive income effect that further deters labor force participation. Due to these channels, introducing UBI alongside existing social programs reduces output and average welfare. Partially substituting existing programs with UBI mitigates the adverse effects, increases average welfare, but does not deliver a Pareto improvement. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen "
"Leon Huetsch, University of Pennsylvania (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-18";"10:30";"2024-01-18";"11:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Technological Change and Unions: An Intergenerational Conflict with Aggregate Impact” Abstract Technological progress in the form of automation boosts productivity, but can cause adverse labor market outcomes for transitional generations. I study the role of unions, and labor adjustment frictions more broadly, in shaping the evolution of wages and employment of workers exposed to labor replacement during the automation transition. Using variation across local labor markets in the U.S. since 1980, I first document that unionization gives rise to intergenerational redistribution by shifting the incidence of wage and employment decline from older, incumbent to young, incoming cohorts. Moreover, unions accelerate the overall employment decline in automating occupations, thereby inducing faster labor reallocation. I develop a quantitative equilibrium model of technological change and unionization that jointly rationalizes the two empirical observations through the impact of union-imposed firing costs on firms’ intertemporal choice how to optimally adjust their workforce over time when gradually adopting automation. Within automating occupations, unions reduce the welfare cost of automation of older workers along the transition by up to 4% of permanent consumption by lowering their layoff risk and wage decline. The impact is shifted to young workers, raising the welfare costs of cohorts entering during the transition by up to 2%. Incoming workers endogenously respond to automation by entering non-adopting occupations which limits the welfare impact on them. The impact of high unionization spills over into non-adopting occupations as the accelerated reallocation of labor depresses wages there. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"Marta Cota,  CERGE-EI (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-22";"13:00";"2024-01-22";"14:15";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Financial Skills and Search in the Mortgage Market” Abstract Are households with low financial skills disadvantaged in the mortgage market? Using stochastic record linking, we construct a unique U.S. dataset that encompasses a rich set of mortgage details and borrowers characteristics, including their objective financial literacy measure. We find that households with low financial skills search less, lock in at 15-20 b.p. higher rates, face a 12-16% higher mortgage delinquency, and end up with a 30% lower likelihood of refinancing. Overall, for a $100,000 loan, the potential losses from low financial literacy are more than $10,000 over the mortgage duration. To understand how financial education, more accessible mortgages, or mortgage rate changes affect households with low financial literacy, we formulate and calibrate a mortgage market model with search frictions and endogenous financial skills. Our model estimates show that search intensity and financial skill variations contribute to 55% and 10% of mortgage rate variations, respectively. We find that i) more accessible mortgages lower the search cost and lead to a higher delinquency risk among low-skilled households, ii) financial education mitigates the adverse effects of increased accessibility, and iii) low mortgage rates favor high-skilled homeowners and, by reinforcing refinancing activity, deepen consumption differences across different financial skill levels. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl "
"Morgane Richard, University College London (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2024-01-23";"10:30";"2024-01-23";"11:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“The Spatial and Distributive Implications of Working-from-Home: A General Equilibrium Model” Abstract I study the impact of the recent rise in remote work on households’ consumption, wealth and housing decisions, examining both short-run and long-run effects. Using detailed UK property-level housing data and a heterogeneous agent model with endogenous housing tenure and city geography, I show that remote work shifts housing demand by increasing the taste for space and reducing commuting costs. It affects where people live in the city and their housing wealth accumulation. The effects vary by access to remote work, income, and wealth. The rise in work-from-home can be compared to a city-wide gentrification shock as wealthy telecommuters opt for larger suburban homes, displacing marginal owners who turn to renting. In the long-run, work-from-home leads to the rise of a tele-premium and consumption inequality increases. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Frikk Nesje, Department of Economics";"Environmental Economics Group";"2024-02-01";"12:00";"2024-02-01";"13:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""A Modular Theory of Intergenerational Justice: Discounting and Inequality"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""A Modular Theory of Intergenerational Justice: Discounting and Inequality"" Abstract We study theories of intergenerational justice that disentangle normative views on discounting and inequality. Any modular social welfare function is uniquely identified by a time-discounting function---capturing attitudes across generations---and an aggregator function---capturing attitudes towards inequality between generations. The rich choice of such functions allows our theory to include standard approaches as special cases and unveils yet unexplored families of alternative criteria. Our axiomatic characterization clarifies the properties and limits of disentangling discounting and inequality. Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"Oskar Skans, Uppsala University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-02-06";"13:15";"2024-02-06";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Beyond the Boundaries: Firm-to-Firm Connections in a Frictional Labor Market"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"“Beyond the Boundaries: Firm-to-Firm Connections in a Frictional Labor Market"" Abstract We explore how firm-to-firm connections can mitigate the consequences of labor market frictions by allowing firms to tap into a broader pool of workers. Using comprehensive data from all Swedish firms, each having a board of directors, we identify connections based on shared directorships or family ties between directors in different firms. Our findings show that a majority of firms have such connections. Notably, worker mobility significantly increases between connected firms after these links are established. This mobility appears to benefit both the origin and destination firms. Mobility across connected firms helps mitigate production losses and allocative inefficiencies that otherwise arise when workers are absent for exogenous reasons. Co-authors: Mikael Carlsson, Francis Kramarz and Andrei Gorshkov For more information about Oskar Nordström Skans and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon"
"Giovanni Mellace, University of Southern Denmark";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-02-07";"10:30";"2024-02-07";"12;00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Limited Monotonicity and the Combined Compliers LATE"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Limited Monotonicity and the Combined Compliers LATE"" Abstract We consider identification of a local average treatment effect given an endogenous binary treatment and two or more valid binary instruments. We propose a novel limited monotonicity assumption that is generally weaker than alternative monotonicity assumptions, and that allows for a great deal of choice heterogeneity. Using this limited monotonicity, we define and identify the combined compliers local average treatment effect (CC-LATE), which is arguably a more policy-relevant parameter than the weighted average of LATEs identified by two-stage least squares. We apply our results to estimate the effect of learning of one’s HIV status on protective behaviors. Co-authors: Nadja van’t Hoff and Arthur Lewbel For more information about Giovanni Mellace and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon"
"Marie Gram Pietraszek defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-02-07";"14:00";"2024-02-07";"16:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the thesis is: Empirical Essays on Labor Economics: Coworker Networks, Application Success, and Graduate Trajectories";"Candidate: Marie Gram Pietraszek, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Empirical Essays on Labor Economics: Coworker Networks, Application Success, and Graduate Trajectories Supervisor: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Morten Bennedsen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Giovanni Mellace, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Southern Denmark Oskar Nordström Skans, Professor, Department of Economics, Uppsala University Summary: The labor market is a cornerstone of any economy, playing a pivotal role in shaping the well-being of individuals and the economy. Unemployment, a key facet of the labor market, carries significant implications. High levels of unemployment not only result in financial hardship for individuals but also contribute to social challenges, including increased inequality and diminished quality of life. Understanding the complexities of the labor market is instrumental for policymakers aiming to design interventions that alleviate unemployment and enhance job search strategies. This PhD dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters that study empirical aspects of the labor market and job search. The first chapter (co-authored with Nikolaj Harmon and Jonas Maibom) examines the mechanisms behind the effect of coworker networks on job search outcomes. We combine linked Danish administrative data on job applications made by the universe of UI recipients with a theoretical job search framework. We employ a quasi-experimental identification strategy that generates variation in coworker networks from the timing of past job transitions to identify the effect of social connections. This enables us to quantify the relative importance of the different mechanisms driving the effect of coworker connections on job search outcomes. We find that the effect of having a coworker connection at a firm increases the likelihood of an application resulting in a hire at the given firm by 133 percent for Danish UI recipients. One-tenth of this overall effect arises because social connections increase the likelihood that an application results. The remainder of the effect stems from changes in application behavior because it is more attractive for the UI recipient to apply to a connected firm. In contrast, we find that direct information effects - in the sense of being more likely to notice a given employment opportunity - appear unimportant in our setting. The second chapter employs machine learning models to predict job application success probabilities. I combine novel data on job applications with standard administrative data sources to predict application success. I find that the histogram gradient-based boosting model exhibits better calibration and lower mean squared error in out-of-sample testing. I present descriptive statistics on the predictions, revealing an average success probability of 0.98 percent, with the variation in success probabilities driven largely by differences between UI recipients and to a lesser extent variation within the UI recipient. I present a descriptive analysis of the changing success probabilities throughout the first year of the UI spell, showcasing the practical applicability of the predicted success probabilities for research. The average success probability declines over time, which is attributed to the effect of UI duration, dynamic selection, and changes in application behavior. I present evidence suggesting that approximately two-thirds of the decline is linked to the effect of UI duration, while the remaining third stems from dynamic selection. UI recipients adjust such that they apply for jobs with a slightly smaller success probability over time. Lastly, I repeat the analysis split by gender. The conclusion is consistent, but I conclude that the effect of duration is more pronounced for men. The third chapter (co-authored with Lykke Sterll Christensen) investigates the causal effect of fluctuations in the labor market on employment and social outcomes of graduates. We combine Danish registry data and unemployment data for the period 2007-2019. We construct a monthly and occupation-specific measure of labor market conditions, which we employ as shifters in a shift-share design. We determine exposure to the shifters from a previous cohort. We find that people graduating under worse labor market conditions are more unemployed, and those in employment earn less and work less. Additionally, we find that worse labor market conditions during graduation increase singlehood and have a lasting negative impact on fertility. We repeat the analysis for men and women separately and find that the effect of fertility is largely driven by women. To investigate the drivers behind the decline, we examine responses for both graduates in a couple and in employment and find a reduction in fertility for both groups. Lastly, we find women graduating at an unfortunate time tend to work more in the private sector. An electronic copy of the thesis can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk "
"SODAS Data Discussion #1 (Spring 2024)";"SODAS";"2024-02-09";"11:15";"2024-02-09";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Rosa Lavelle-Hill and Kristin Eggeling for our SODAS Data Discussion spring 2024 series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Rosa Lavelle-Hill. Title: Understanding Heterogeneity in AI Performance. Abstract: Algorithms are increasingly part of our daily lives, with their predictions mattering more and more [1]. On the one hand, algorithms can be used for social good, e.g., by providing early warning systems for diseases [2]. On the other hand, algorithms can be used to prompt people to spend money for goods that they initially might neither want, need, nor have money for, e.g., by using personalized persuasion [3]. Therefore, depending on the context, being highly (un)predictable as a person can be considered either advantageous or disadvantageous. Predictability has thus far largely been studied from statistical-computational perspectives (e.g., complex systems theory [5], information theory [4], learning theory [6]). In this data discussion, I argue that when human behavior is the outcome, there is also a need to study predictability from a psychological perspective. For instance, individuals with certain personality characteristics might show highly sporadic (and thus unpredictable) or, vice versa, compulsively repetitive (and thus predictable) behavior. To facilitate ethical, fair, and unbiased prediction outcomes for all people, it is essential to understand which characteristics relate to predictability and the social consequences of this. I will present future project plans (supported by the Carlsberg Foundation and the University of Basel) on understanding heterogeneity in AI performance from a psychological and ethical perspective. Discussion 2 Presenter: Kristin Eggeling. Title: Ethnographic Insights Into the Digitalisation of Diplomacy. Abstract: Screens are everywhere in the modern world, including in international politics. In this article, I consider how diplomacy, a profession traditionally premised on face-to-face interactions, is adjusting to life with and on the screen. For this, I present ethnographic material from five years (2018-2023) of research in and with the diplomatic scene in Brussels. I approach this material through the work of Sherry Turkle and apply her ideas about ‘evocative objects’ to the presence of screens in diplomacy. In contrast to existing scholarship that asks in a more abstract ways about how digital technologies change diplomacy, I ask more concisely about what kind of associations screens (e.g., smartphones) evoke among diplomatic professionals. Based on this, I draw out how screens confirm or confront established professional procedures, and theorise the screen as an expressive tool that both catches and shapes the rules and frictions of the diplomatic field. Overall, the article contributes detailed empirical insights into an otherwise largely closed-off world, and nurtures a new theoretical language about one of the key objects that drives the digitalisation of international politics. "
"Bjørn Bo Sørensen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-02-16";"13:00";"2024-02-16";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the thesis is: Essays on Industrial Development in Africa and Asia";"Candidate: Bjørn Bo Sørensen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays on Industrial Development in Africa and Asia Supervisors: John Rand, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Henrik Hansen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Finn Tarp, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Carol Newman, Professor, Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin Måns Söderbom, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg Summary: This Ph.D. dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters analysing different aspects of industrial development and structural transformation in Africa and Asia. In the first chapter (co-authored with Henrik Hansen, John Rand, and Helge Zille), we study the ownership of “pioneer firms” that establish industries in regions where they did not previously exist. Using the Vietnamese Enterprise Survey (2001-2017), which allows us to track close to one million formal firms over time, we explore whether Vietnam’s remarkable industrial diversification during the past two decades was driven by state-owned, multinational, or domestic and privately owned enterprises (SOEs, MNEs, or PDEs). We document significantly higher pioneering frequencies in SOEs and MNEs compared to PDEs, also after controlling for a broad spectrum of observable characteristics. Second, we show that MNEs tend to pioneer in complex industries in Vietnam’s economic centres, while SOEs pioneer in unsophisticated industries in regions with less economic activity. Finally, we investigate the dynamic employment effects in industries pioneered by different firms. We find that MNE-pioneered industries generate significantly more jobs, which is primarily driven by employment in pioneering MNEs and other MNEs following the pioneer in subsequent years. In contrast, SOEs create no additional employment in the industries they pioneer compared to industries pioneered by PDEs. In the second chapter, I study how granular climate hazards affect local production, and what role spillovers and general equilibrium adjustments play in shaping local resilience. I combine high-resolution satellite imagery of floods with geo-coded panel data on Chinese manufacturing firms between 2000 and 2007 to investigate these questions in an event study analysis. I first show that 1-in-50-years floods cause large and persistent declines in aggregate manufacturing output in affected counties. I then analyse the role of direct and indirect flood exposure in shaping the aggregate outcome. Within flooded counties, firms that are actually flooded experience large declines in output compared to nearby firms. Yet, nearby firms in flooded counties simultaneously perform worse than similar firms in non-flooded counties. The results point to the existence of local spillovers and equilibrium adjustments. I show that floods lower the cost of labour and that firms in tradable and labour-intensive industries expand, whereas other firms contract. The results are consistent with a simple model of local spillovers ala Moretti (2010), and they suggest that a common factor affecting both flooded and nearby firms may be a fall in local demand. The third and final chapter consists of two self-contained articles (co-authored with Christian Estmann, Benno Ndulu, Enilde Sarmento, and John Rand) introducing a methodological framework for identifying attractive product sectors that can be targeted by industrial policy aiming to (i) promote economic upgrading and diversification and (ii) increase export revenue. In a supply-side analysis, we first use the economic complexity methodology to identify product sectors that are important for structural transformation. In a demand-side analysis, we then use gravity models to rank the trade potential of these target products across different markets. The first article applies the framework to guide industrial policy in Mozambique—one of the world’s least complex economies. We identify unexploited opportunities in machinery, vehicles, and transport equipment. The second article applies the framework to the case of Tanzania, where we find a high potential in complex sectors such as machinery and chemicals. We further extend the framework to consider sectors’ capacity to absorb labour, and find that less complex sectors such as agro-processing, metal, and wood, have a higher potential to create employment. An electronic copy of the thesis can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk "
"DISTRACT Talk with Jelle Bruineberg";"DISTRACT";"2024-03-01";"11:00";"2024-03-01";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"""Attending in the attention economy"" with Jelle Bruineberg, Center for Subjectivity Research, Department of Communication, University of Copenhagen. ";"Title: Attending in the attention economy Abstract: The aim of this talk is to investigate the notion of attention that underpins contemporary debates about the attention economy: what is it about the omnipresence of digital technologies that seems to make it difficult to attend to what is relevant? Much of the contemporary literature assumes that digital technologies bombard us with an overload of sensory information, making it difficult to apply scarce attentional resources to the relevant information. I will articulate a number of shortcomings of this view: it is difficult to quantify both attention and information, and it fails to provide a convincing account of distraction. In the second half of the talk, I will then develop an alternative action-based account of attention in which the need for attention stems from the need to coherently organize activities. Using this action-based view, I will develop a more specific diagnosis about what it is about digital technologies that makes attending difficult: digital technologies change the layout of action possibilities in the environment, and thereby make it more difficult to coherently organize our activities. Bio:Jelle Bruineberg started as a tenure-track Assistant Professor in Cognition and Communication in July 2023. He studied physics, philosophy and cognitive science at the University of Amsterdam and received a PhD in 2018 for his dissertation on the philosophical implications of predictive processing. In 2020, he got awarded a Macquarie Research Fellowship to pursue a project on attention, and the way digital technologies mediate attention. He has been occupied with this question ever since, occasionally getting distracted by issues in embodied cognitive science, ecological psychology and the philosophy of predictive processing."
"Kyle Herkenhoff, University of Minnesota";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-03-04";"14:15";"2024-03-04";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Intergenerational Mobility and Credit"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Intergenerational Mobility and Credit"" Abstract We combine the Decennial Census, credit reports, and administrative earnings to create the first panel dataset linking parent’s credit access to the labor market outcomes of children in the U.S. We find that a 10% increase in parent’s unused revolving credit during their children’s adolescence (13 to 18 years old) is associated with 0.28% to 0.37% greater labor earnings of their children during early adulthood (25 to 30 years old). Using these empirical elasticities, we estimate a dynastic, defaultable debt model to examine how the democratization of credit since the 1970s – modeled as both greater credit limits and more lenient bankruptcy – affected intergenerational mobility. Surprisingly, we find that the democratization of credit led to less intergenerational mobility and greater inequality. Two offsetting forces underlie this result: (1) greater credit limits raise mobility by facilitating borrowing and investment among low-income households; (2) however, more lenient bankruptcy policy lowers mobility since low-income households dissave, hit their constraints more often, and reduce investments in their children. Quantitatively, the democratization of credit is dominated by more lenient bankruptcy policy and so mobility declines between the 1970s and 2000s. Joint with J. Carter Braxton, Nisha Chikhale, and Gordon Phillips. Link to paper Contact person: John Vincent Kramer"
"Mikkel Sølvsten, Aarhus BSS";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-03-07";"14:00";"2024-03-07";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Linear Regression with Weak Exogeneity"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Linear Regression with Weak Exogeneity"" Abstract This paper studies linear time series regressions with many regressors. Weak exogeneity is the most used identifying assumption in time series. Weak exogeneity requires the structural error to have zero conditional expectation given the present and past regressor values, allowing errors to correlate with future regressor realizations. We show that weak exogeneity in time series regressions with many controls may produce substantial biases and even render the least squares (OLS) estimator inconsistent. The bias arises in settings with many regressors because the normalized OLS design matrix remains asymptotically random and correlates with the regression error when only weak (but not strict) exogeneity holds. This bias's magnitude increases with the number of regressors and their average autocorrelation. To address this issue, we propose an innovative approach to bias correction that yields a new estimator with improved properties relative to OLS. We establish consistency and conditional asymptotic Gaussianity of this new estimator and provide a method for inference. Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard Sørensen"
"SODAS Data Discussion #2 (Spring 2024)";"SODAS";"2024-03-08";"11:15";"2024-03-08";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Mauro Martinelli and Sofie Læbo Astrupgaard for our SODAS Data Discussion spring 2024 series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Mauro Martinelli. Title: SOS – Searching Online for Support. How online searches can help assess and address mental health issues in Denmark. Abstract:Mental health represents an integral part of individuals’ ability to live a healthy and happy life. Unfortunately, the proportion of individuals experiencing mental health issues and disorders is increasing over time, with three quarters of these starting within the first 18 years of age. Despite the availability of effective, evidence-based treatments, more than a third of young individuals who meet the diagnostic criteria for a mental health illness never access professional help. One particularly challenging barrier are cultural prejudices against people with mental illness, that hinder affected individuals from seeking help for fear of stigmatisation. To address this issue, large-scale public health interventions countering mental illness stigma may be effective but are limited by a lack of reliable data for targeted implementation. National registries are often unavailable and survey measures suffer from desirability bias due to perceived stigmatisation. This project works toward addressing these data challenges through a combination of recent insights on the potential of online search behaviors as indicators of sanctioned phenomena and the unique Danish registry environment. The project has three primary objectives: i) provide a proof of concept for using online search data to estimate the prevalence of mental health issues at the community level in Denmark; ii) validate online search data by combining them with population-based registry data and iii) provide the foundational work to examine the mechanisms driving the disparity between mental health issues and access to mental health care. Discussion 2 Presenter: Sofie Læbo Astrupgaard. Title: The Outbreak of Working From Home In Denmark. Abstract: I present findings from a study on the adoption of Working from Home (WFH) in Denmark post-Covid-19. Analyzing nearly 2 million Danish job ads using a mixed-methods approach, I explored the beneficiaries and diverse framings of WFH across job domains. The data revealed a notable increase in WFH opportunities, particularly among digitally reliant white-collar workers, a trend that persisted after government restrictions were lifted. Through examining job ad content, two overall discourses surrounding WFH emerged: one emphasising worker autonomy and well-being, and another focusing on more employer-centric aspects such as collegiality. I posit that WFH is evolving into a privilege for select groups within the Danish workforce, with the extent of its benefits varying based on how it is framed, reflecting a neoliberalisation in the labour market."
"SODAS Lecture: Studying Climate Activism to Understand How We Can Save Ourselves";"SODAS";"2024-03-15";"11:00";"2024-03-15";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"A lecture on how we can study social movements as they are happening to understand their likely trajectory and outcomes.";"Title: Studying Climate Activism to Understand How We Can Save Ourselves. Abstract: How can we study social movements as they are happening to understand their likely trajectory and outcomes? In this talk, I will present my ongoing research studying climate activism, which builds on data collected through open-ended semi-structured interviews, along with survey data collected from activists and civil society groups. I will present findings from analyses of these data and discuss how it informs us about the future of the climate movement and environmental democracy more broadly. Bio: Dana R. Fisher is the Director of the Center for Environment, Community, & Equity (CECE) and a Professor in the School of International Service at American University. She has published six books and over 75 peer-reviewed articles. Her seventh book, Saving Ourselves: From Climate Shocks to Climate Action is coming out in early 2024. Fisher is a Nonresident Senior Fellow with the Governance Studies program at The Brookings Institution, the President of the Eastern Sociological Society, and the chair-elect of the Political Sociology section of the American Sociological Association. She served as a Contributing Author for Working Group 3 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Sixth Assessment Review (IPCC AR6) writing about citizen engagement and civic activism. Her media appearances include ABC, CNN, MSNBC, PBS Newshour, and various programs on NPR, BBC, and CBC. Her words have appeared in the popular media, including in the Washington Post, Slate, TIME Magazine, Politico, the Nation, and the American Prospect. Fisher holds a Ph.D. and Master of Science degree from the Department of Sociology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Her undergraduate degree is in East Asian Studies and Environmental Studies from Princeton University. "
"Barbara Petrongolo, University of Oxford";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-03-19";"13:15";"2024-03-19";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Vacancy duration and wages"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Vacancy duration and wages"" Abstract We estimate the elasticity of vacancy duration with respect to posted wages, using data from the near-universe of online job adverts in the United Kingdom. Our re-search design identifies duration elasticities by leveraging firm-level wage policies that are plausibly exogenous to hiring difficulties on specific job vacancies, and control for job and market-level fixed-effects. Wage policies are defined based on external information on pay settlements, or on sharp, internally-defined, firm-level changes. In our preferred specifications, we estimate duration elasticities in the range −3 to −5, which are substantially larger than the few existing estimates. Jointly with Ihsaan Bassier and Alan Manning For more information about Barbara Petrongolo and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Mette Rasmussen"
"The Science of the Predicted Human talk series: Professor Joanna Bryson";"Pioneer Center for Artificial Intelligence, DTU Compute and SODAS";"2024-03-19";"14:30";"2024-03-19";"16:00";"CSS Øster Farimagsgade 5 1353 København K, lokale 2.1.12 ";"";"TITLE: Public Goods Investment, Human Cooperation, and Political Polarisation – Does AI Play a Role?ABSTRACT: Cooperation is absolutely as natural as competition – there are no single-gene organisms. When then do we cooperate, and when compete? I will review evidence from both micro and political economics about contexts in which humans (and other organisms) switch between these strategies, then show models and supporting data that economic context much more so than social media use influences affective polarisation – attitudes towards outgroups. Nevertheless, social media is useful both for disseminating polarised positions to those affectively polarised, and for identifying and targeting individuals ripe for manipulation. If time permits I will briefly describe how the EU's recent digital legislation addresses the problems of the predicted human. BIOGRAPHY: Joanna J. Bryson is an academic recognised for broad expertise on intelligence, its nature, and its consequences. Holding two degrees each in psychology and AI (BA Chicago, MSc & MPhil Edinburgh, PhD MIT), Bryson is since 2020 the Professor of Ethics and Technology at Hertie School in Berlin, where she is a founding member of the Centre for Digital Governance. From 2002-2019 she was Computer Science faculty at the University of Bath; she has also been affiliated with Harvard Psychology, Oxford Anthropology, The Mannheim Centre for Social Science Research, The Konrad Lorenz Institute for Evolution and Cognition Research, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. Bryson advises governments, corporations, and NGOs globally, particularly on AI policy. Her research has appeared in venues ranging from reddit to Science. It presently focuses on the impacts of technology on human societies and cooperation, and improving governance of AI and digital technology."
"CPH DATA BEERS";"CPH DATA BEERS, DDSA, and SODAS";"2024-03-19";"20:00";"2024-03-19";"22:00";"Folkehuset Absalon (Sønder Blvd. 73,1720 Copenhagen V)";"Get ready for an epic night at the upcoming DataBeers x Absalon. We're bringing the worlds of data science and beer together, and it's going to be a blast!";"When: March 19 Time: 20:00 to 22:00 (you don't need to stay the whole time) Format: Layman (informal), 7min talk + 3min for questions, 5 speakers for the night Where: Folkehuset Absalon (Sønder Blvd. 73,1720 Copenhagen V). Event call: Calling all data and beer enthusiasts! Get ready for an epic night at the upcoming DataBeers x Absalon. We're bringing the worlds of data science and beer together, and it's going to be a blast! We've gathered awesome speakers to dive into a wide range of data stories; stay tuned for updates! The format is simple: five short 7-minute talks followed by a 3-minute Q&A. But here's the best part: We will provide free beer for everyone. So, it's the perfect opportunity to relax, mingle, and connect with our Copenhagen data-loving community. Big shoutout to our awesome sponsors: DDSA and KU (SODAS). At DataBeers, we believe the more, the merrier, so bring your friends and spread the word! About DataBeers Copenhagen: We are DataBeers Copenhagen, an international community that brings together people from research, non-profit, industry, and public institutions to share captivating ""data stories."" You can find more about us on twitter, mastodon, LinkedIn."
"Tobias Broer, Paris School of Economics";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-03-25";"14:15";"2024-03-25";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""Consumption insurance over the business cycle"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics";"""Consumption insurance over the business cycle"" Abstract In U.S. micro data, consumption smoothing is cyclical: consumption reacts more to idiosyncratic income changes in booms. This matters for average costs of business cycles and aggregate fluctuations in consumption demand. In standard models of self-insurance, where individuals borrow and save to smooth income fluctuations, consumption smoothing is strong when a temporarily low average wage level or low interest rates make current shocks less important for permanent income, and when high savings rates relax future borrowing constraints of low-wealth households. When studying these determinants in the general equilibrium of a standard business-cycle model with incomplete markets and idiosyncratic risk, procyclical wealth accumulation makes consumption smoothing substantially more effective in booms. To solve this ""countercyclical consumption smoothing puzzle"", we explore alternative market structures, income processes and misperception of idiosyncratic risk. Procyclical bias in the perceived persistence of idiosyncratic shocks can help solve the puzzle. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Workshop: International &#8211; Macro People of Copenhagen (I-MPC) 2024";"Department of Economics, Copenhagen University";"2024-04-12";"13:00";"2024-04-12";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Building 35, Faculty Lounge (room 35.3.20)";"Macroeconomics Workshop, arranged by Department of Economics and Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI)";"Program: 13:30 - 14:30 - Presentation - TBA 14:30 - 14:45 - Coffee break 14:45 - 15:45 - Sarah Lein (Basel) , ""The Granular Origins of Inflation"" 15:45 - 16:00 - Coffee break 16:00 - 17:00 - Joseba Martinez (London Business School), ""Putty-Clay Automation"" Organizer and contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Matthias Rottner, Deutsche Bundesbank";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-04-15";"14:15";"2024-04-15";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agents Models with Neural Network”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"“Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agents Models with Neural Network” Abstract We leverage recent advancements in machine learning to develop a method to solve and to perform likelihood estimation of the parameters of nonlinear, heterogeneous agents models. Neural networks are set up to obtain an accurate approximation of the model's nonlinear transition equations and likelihood function. The proposed method can retrieve the true parameter values of a prototypical model whose solution is worked out analytically. Furthermore, the parameters estimated with our method are consistent with those estimated using a state-of-the-art method, which can, however, only be applied to stylized nonlinear representative agent models. Using simulated data we show that the proposed method provides an accurate estimation of the parameters of a nonlinear Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint and aggregate uncertainty. When we estimate the HANK model using U.S. data, we find that the interplay between aggregate nonlinearities and uninsurable idiosyncratic risk plays a large role in explaining business cycles volatility. The estimation with real data provides a first evaluation of how nonlinear HANK models should be expanded to improve their empirical performance. For more information about Matthias Rottner and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn "
"Lea Felicitas Tschan, University of St. Gallen";"Environmental Economics Group";"2024-04-17";"13:30";"2024-04-17";"14:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Green Investments and Top Income Inequality"". Seminar arranged by the Environmental Economics Group";"""Green Investments and Top Income Inequality"" Abstract This paper provides empirical evidence for a significant positive association between green investments and top income inequality from a panel of 87 countries from 2004 to 2020. This relationship is strongest for countries with initially lower levels of income, financial development, and carbon emissions. The positive effect of green investments on inequality persists for four years and thereafter abates. We argue that the association between green investments and inequality is at least partially driven by technological change. Using a moderated mediation design, we show that green innovation is mediating the relationship between green investments and top income inequality. Contact person: Frikk Nesje"
"SODAS Data Discussion #3 (Spring 2024)";"SODAS";"2024-04-19";"11:15";"2024-04-19";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Daniel Juhász Vigild and Yani Kartalis for our SODAS Data Discussion spring 2024 series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Daniel Juhász Vigild. Title: Technology and Policing. Abstract:In this data discussion, I share my idea for a paper on the effect of adopting of new technology within Danish Police (POL-INTEL), with a focus on psychiatric outpatients. I will also share recent bumps on the road regarding data access and collaboration with the police, which may spark a more general discussion of how we do social data science on large scale machine systems that have societal impact, but where access to data is limited. Discussion 2 Presenter: Yani Kartalis. Title: Impact of the Economy on Congruence Between Manifestos & Speeches. Abstract: Studies have demonstrated that party promises are becoming less important for post-electoral parliamentary behaviour, especially in situations of macro-level economic hardship and external conditionality. We aim to test what scholars have dubbed as ‘democracies without choice’ by focusing on the parliaments of five European countries; Germany, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain. We use a pooled panel of data comparing manifestos with post-electoral parliamentary speeches from 1996 to 2019. By leveraging a multilingual fine-tuned instance of an XLM-RoBERTa-Large model we compare manifestos and speeches to produce similarity scores. We then theorize the possible effects on this similarity measure. Each country’s macroeconomic performance but also conditionality enforced by supranational actors in contexts of crisis are tested. Findings suggest that both predictors reduce the congruence between manifestos and speeches."
"Alexandra Roulet, INSEAD";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-04-23";"13:15";"2024-04-23";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Do working time reductions share work? Evidence from the 35hours workweek reform in France"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Do working time reductions share work? Evidence from the 35hours workweek reform in France"" Abstract Reductions of the full-time workweek have been introduced widely and are actively debated in several countries. These policies target either (i) workers’ welfare, hence assuming that workers keep their job and income, or (ii) firms’ organization, aiming at worksharing. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the causal effects of reducing the full-time workweek on workers and firms and quantifies worksharing. We study the 4-hour reduction in the workweek implemented in France in 2000, from 39 to 35 hours. We rely on difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity designs, as well as administrative employment records and balance sheet data. We leverage the fact that firms smaller than 20 employees had to comply with the new working time later than larger firms. While the distribution of hours worked changed drastically following the reform, we find little evidence of worksharing, with some heterogeneity by types of firms and workers. The reduction of hours at the worker level translates into a reduction in total hours at the firm level, by 5%. Despite the policy requiring unchanged monthly earnings, we estimate a reduction in workers’ total wages of 2%. For more information about Alexandra Roulet and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg "
"SODAS Lecture: What is emotion?";"SODAS";"2024-04-29";"11:00";"2024-04-29";"12:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"Methodological and quantitative considerations in the study of emotion phenomenology and physiology by Dr. Nicholas Coles.";"Talk TitleWhat is emotion? Methodological and quantitative considerations in the study of emotion phenomenology and physiologyTalk DescriptionA remarkable feature of emotions is that they are felt — we can experience the sting of rejection just as we can experience the sting of an ant bite. These emotional experiences are a fundamental part of the human condition. As such, researchers across multiple disciplines seek to understand, predict (e.g., via emotion recognition AI), and improve the emotions that are so central to our day-to-day experiences. In this talk, Dr. Nicholas Coles will review methodological and quantitative approaches designed to illuminate the nature of emotional experience. Many theorists posit that emotional experience is built off sensations emanating from the peripheral nervous system (e.g., tensed muscles and accelerated hearts). Dr. Coles will review how these ideas have recently been probed via meta-analysis, an adversarial big team science collaboration, cross-cultural tests of outstanding methodological issues, and a big team machine learning challenge. Bio: Dr. Nicholas Coles is a Research Scientist at the Stanford University Human-Centered AI center, where he conducts research on emotions, big team science, and quantitative methods. He received his PhD in Social Psychology from the University of Tennessee, with additional postdoctoral training at Harvard University. His work has been published in outlets like Nature, Nature Human Behaviour, and Psychological Bulletin and has received several awards, including: the Einstein Foundation Award for Promoting Quality in Research, the CORES Open Science Innovator Award, and three fellowships from the U.S. National Science Foundation. Starting in August, Nicholas will be an Assistant Professor at the University of Florida Department of Psychology. "
"Anna Picco, European Central Bank";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-04-29";"14:15";"2024-04-29";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Dynamic credit constraints: theory and evidence from credit lines”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Dynamic credit constraints: theory and evidence from credit lines"" Abstract We use a comprehensive Swedish credit register data to document that firms throughout the size distribution have access to fairly large and reasonably priced credit lines. However, they borrow relatively little from their credit lines. We also find that credit lines utilization is negatively related to real and financial uncertainty, suggesting that the observed low utilization is the result of tight 'dynamic' credit constraints, rather than unneeded funds. We illustrate the concept of 'dynamic' credit constraints with a simple theoretical model that we use to estimate the borrowing capacity of each firm. We find that the estimated credit capacity is highly correlated with direct empirical measures of credit capacity based on credit lines committed amounts. Joint work with Niklas Amberg, Tor Jacobson, and Vincenzo Quadrini. For more information about Anna Picco and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: John Kramer "
"CANCELLED: DISTRACT Talk with Signe Vangkilde and Anne Marie Kristensen ";"DISTRACT";"2024-05-03";"11:00";"2024-05-03";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS conference room 1.1.12";"""Mastering Meta-Control: From Cognitive Mechanisms to Practical Strategies"" with professor Signe Vangkilde and PhD Anne Marie Kristensen, Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen ";"The talk is unfortunately cancelled due to illness ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Title: Mastering Meta-Control: From Cognitive Mechanisms to Practical Strategies Abstract:In an age where digital distractions are omnipresent, understanding and mastering attention control has never been more crucial. The media often draw our attention to a so-called war on attention, with companies incorporating mechanisms in apps, games, and platforms to capture our attention and make us return repeatedly as part of the attention economy. The aim of this talk is to explore core concepts and mechanisms of attention and control. How do we employ meta-control to focus our attention while still allowing our mind to flexibly shift from one task to another, and what happens when multiple stimuli compete to grasp our attention at once? We will begin by exploring the cognitive underpinnings of attention control, examining both focused engagement and the dynamics of a wandering mind. Another prominent public debate driven by politicians and experts revolves around the role and impact of digital media and technologies in Danish classrooms, with some claiming that digital and social media are directly harmful to children’s attention span and concentration abilities, calling for a ban on these technologies. In a different approach to this discussion, the second part of our talk will focus on research-based ways of strengthening children’s (and adults’) concentration skills and abilities to shift flexibly between tasks. Longitudinal studies indicate that these skills are crucial for later life outcomes, such as academic performance, career choices, social interactions, and criminal offences. These findings underscore the profound impact of attention control on lifelong learning and behavior. Drawing on our research project On Track, we will elaborate on ways to support, help, and train our attentional control in order for our attentional focus to be as stable as possible, while allowing for flexibility and not be easily led astray by irrelevant distractors. Bios:Signe Vangkilde a Professor of Cognitive Neuropsychology, specialising in cognitive control and attention in heath and disease at the Department of Psychology, University of Copenhagen (UCPH). Anne Marie Kristensen (aka Rie) is a PhD student at the Department of Psychology at UCPH. Her PhD project is supported by TrygFonden and the Independent Research Fund Denmark, and her research is focused on mechanisms and activities, which can support attention control and academic well-being in schoolchildren. Join the talk through zoom by following this link: https://ucph-ku.zoom.us/j/62386697589 "
"SODAS Lecture: The Political Effects of Social Media Affordances";"SODAS";"2024-05-07";"14:00";"2024-05-07";"15:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"The Political Effects of Social Media Affordances: Evidence from the US 2020 Facebook and Instagram Election Study by Pablo Barberá";"Title: ‘The Political Effects of Social Media Affordances: Evidence from the US 2020 Facebook and Instagram Election Study’ Abstract: Do social media platforms create echo-chamber environments that exacerbate political polarization? Do resharing features contribute to the spread of harmful content? And how do feed ranking algorithms contribute to both of these processes? In this talk, I provide new evidence regarding these questions based on the first four published studies within the U.S. 2020 Facebook and Instagram Election Study, a partnership between Meta researchers and external academics to understand the impact of Facebook and Instagram on key political attitudes and behaviors during the US 2020 elections. These first four papers include a series of experiments that manipulated key platform features for a set of participants to explore subsequent effects on polarization, knowledge, and attitudes towards democracy; as well as analysis of aggregated data for all Facebook adult users in the US. I will also provide an overview of the project, which followed the principles of independence, transparency, and consent; and which took important steps to ensure its scientific integrity, such as pre-registration of analysis plans, no pre-publication approval by Meta, IRB review, and the release of data required to enable replication. Pablo Barberá is a Research Scientist in Meta's Computational Social Science team and an Adjunct Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Southern California. He received his PhD in Political Science from New York University, where he was affiliated with the Social Media and Political Participation lab and the Center for Data Science. Prior to joining Meta, he was an Assistant Professor of Computational Social Science in the Methodology department at the London School of Economics. His research combines computational methods and the use of social media data to examine the impact of digital technologies on political behavior and public opinion. "
"SODAS Data Discussion #4 (Spring 2024)";"SODAS";"2024-05-17";"11:15";"2024-05-17";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Vincent Gadegaard and Jeppe Johansen for our SODAS Data Discussion spring 2024 series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Vincent Gadegaard. Title: Challenges of Heterogeneity in Social Media Behaviour Data. Abstract:In this data-discussion, I share the tentative approach, data, and results of a work-in-progress paper on political participation on public political Facebook posts. Following this introduction to my paper, I discuss my general data challenges, and the troubles using the aggregation of individual level social media behavioural data in answering theoretically driven question. Here I touch upon affordances of social media usage and interpretation of behaviour, and open up discussion on how to quantify more qualitatively driven questions in the data. Discussion 2 Presenter: Jeppe Johansen. Title: Peer Effects in High School Application. Abstract: This paper investigates peer effects in high school applications within the context of the Danish education system. It considers all Danish 9th graders from the period 2015 to 2019, addressing the binary choice problem of whether to apply for high school. This encompasses a total of approximately 300,000 students. The study builds on recent advancements in the econometric literature that exploit insights from game theory, particularly the notion that peer effect games are supermodular and allow for fixed point iteration under an equilibrium selection rule (Boucher et al. 2022; Graham and Pelican 2023). Additionally, this paper reframes the discrete choice problem as a perturbed utility model, which facilitates considerably easier estimation than the method proposed by Graham and Pelican 2023. Specifically, the estimation process iteratively performs a logistic regression and then proceeds to a solution step, iterating to a fixed point in the supermodular game. The estimation method is validated through a Monte Carlo simulation demonstrating that a simple approach of plugging in peer averages will yield biased results. The parameter estimates from the real data align with these findings, and the estimation approach suggested in this paper indicates considerably smaller peer effects than what would be suggested by merely plugging in peer averages. Finally, the structural parameters are used for policy simulation of implementing a GPA cut-off of 7. The results indicate that this policy would lead to a substantial decrease in high school applicants, with peer effects having a significant impact on the reduced application numbers."
"Alexander M. Dietrich, Danmark Nationalbank";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-05-27";"14:15";"2024-05-27";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""Inflation Preferences"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"“Inflation Preferences” Abstract We document novel survey-based facts on preferred long-run inflation rates among U.S. consumers. Consumers on average prefer a 0.20% annual inflation rate, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Inflation preferences not only correlate with demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, but also with economic reasoning. A randomized control trial reveals that two narratives based on economic models—describing how inflation lowers the real value of wages and money holdings—affect inflation preferences. While our results can inform the design of central bank communication on inflation targets, they also raise questions about the alignment between such targets and consumer preferences. For more information about Alexander M. Dietrich and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: John Vincent Kramer"
"Jason Sockin, IZA/Cornell University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-05-28";"13:15";"2024-05-28";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Dancing with the Stars: How Workers Respond to Politically-Charged Job Ads"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Dancing with the Stars: How Workers Respond to Politically-Charged Job Ads"" Abstract While nouns in the German language are gendered toward males, the introduction of the ``gender star'' or ``gender colon'' have allowed for nouns to be interpreted as not assigning gender, or non-binary. Their usage however has become highly politically polarizing. Using over 40 million online job postings from 2016 to 2023, we document the rising prevalence of the gender star in the German labor market, particularly in German counties with greater support for the Green party. We then study how job seekers respond when the advertised job title includes such non-binary punctuation. Job seekers click substantially more often on job ads with gender-inclusive language. This relationship is larger in counties, occupations and sectors where gender-inclusive language is scarcer, suggesting a higher value for this amenity in such contexts. Finally, using a survey experiment, we investigate how such politically-charged signals in job ads affect sorting and labor market polarization. For more information about Till von Wachter and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Mette Rasmussen"
"Mathilde Lund Holm defends her PhD dissertation at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-05-30";"10:30";"2024-05-30";"12:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Empirical Essays on Family Economics: Divorce, Children, and Gender Inequality";"Candidate: Mathilde Lund Holm, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Empirical Essays on Family Economics: Divorce, Children, and Gender Inequality Supervisor: Mette Ejrnæs, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Torben Heien Nielsen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Libertad González, Professor, Department of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra and Barcelona School of Economics Herdis Steingrimsdottir, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School Summary: This Ph.D. dissertation was part of the 5+3 Ph.D. program at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, with generous funding from the ROCKWOOL Foundation. The dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters all engaging in the field of Economics of the Family. The chapters share a common interest in family events and dynamics and use Danish register data and microeconometric methods to study either divorce or fertility. The first- and second chapters study divorce and the third paper focuses on fertility. Chapter 1: The Effects of Parental Union Dissolution on Children’s Test Scores The first chapter, coauthored with Peter Fallesen and Eskil Heinesen, provides evidence of the adverse effects of parental union dissolution on children’s test scores. First, controlling for individual fixed effects and using recent advancements in staggered difference-in-differences methods, we find negative effects on test scores that increase from the year of parental separation to four years after. The decline in test scores originates from children in the middle of the skill distribution. Second, we find indications of an immediate negative effect using a regression discontinuity design, with the difference in time between the test date and parental separation date as the running variable. Chapter 2: Unveiling New Realities: The Economic Disparities for Fathers After Divorce The second chapter concludes that the economic repercussions of divorce are more significant for men than women in Denmark. This conclusion is controversial in the light of the existing literature. This paper identifies the causal effect of divorce by applying a staggered difference-in-difference model and using later-treated fathers as a control group. At the time of parental separation, fathers face a substantial decline of 9 percent of annual earnings, whereas the decline for mothers is only 2 percent. The adverse effect for paternal earnings has intensified over time, especially for cohorts separating between 2005 and 2014. Lastly, the paper suggests that increased paternal childcare responsibilities could be an essential mechanism. Chapter 3: The Cohabitation and Child Penalty in Non-Nuclear Families The third chapter, coauthored with Mette Ejrnæs, focuses on fertility and its economic adverse impact on women. Despite advancements in gender equality, income disparities persist, and parenthood remains a pain point for gender equality. The term ""child penalty"" highlights the financial cost of having children, primarily observed for mothers. This study explores the child penalty in non-nuclear families to contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms and drivers behind it. It compares the experiences of mothers who have their first child in nuclear families to (step)mothers who have their firstborn child with a spouse who has children from previous relationships. Both groups face a child penalty at childbirth, with stepmothers experiencing a more significant impact. Interestingly, a cohabitation penalty is observed for both, but it appears to be more enduring for stepmothers. Using Danish register data and a double-event study method, these findings contribute to understanding the complexities surrounding parenthood and gender equality. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk "
"Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-06-03";"14:15";"2024-06-03";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""The Expectations of Others"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""The Expectations of Others"" Abstract How do social networks affect inflation expectations? In a model of memory and recall, we analytically show conditions under which social networks amplify inflation expectations as well as necessary conditions for belief stability. In particular, sharing salient experiences or sharing experiences among similar individuals can intensify amplification. Using a novel dataset that integrates information on inflation expectations with social network connections, our empirical analysis reveals several key findings in line with the model predictions: Inflation expectations within one's social network are positively associated with individual inflation expectations. This relationship is stronger for groups that share common demographic characteristics such as gender, income, or political affiliation. An instrumental variable approach further establishes causality of these results while also showing that salient information disseminates strongly through the network. Our estimates imply that the influence of the social network amplifies but does not destabilize inflation expectations. For more information about Raphael Schoenle and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Paolo Paruolo, European Commission Joint Research Centre";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-06-04";"15:00";"2024-06-04";"16:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Specification tools for time fixed effects in country panels"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Specification tools for time fixed effects in country panels"" Abstract This paper proposes specification tools for time fixed-effects in country panels, that can guide the specification of the time FE among a set of models including the standard two-way fixed-effect model, and other multi-way fixed effect specifications. The tools are based on the observable characteristics of univariate time series of contrasts implied by a given specification; they use flagging rules based on graphical or statistical analysis. Evidence on which contrasts do not contain time fixed-effects can be harvested by algorithms; this paper discusses two examples of such algorithms. Implications for the specification of Differences in Differences estimation are discussed, and results are illustrated using a country panel of prices of mobile telecommunication services. Joint with Giulia Canzian and Louis Ronchail Contact person: Anders Rahbek"
"Alais Martin-Baillon,  NYU Abu Dhabi";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-06-10";"14:15";"2024-06-10";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Do firm heterogeneous expectations drive capital misallocation?”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"“Do firm heterogeneous expectations drive capital misallocation?” Abstract This paper empirically differentiates two sources of observed dispersion in the firms' marginal product of capital (MPK), commonly labelled as capital misallocation. One source is barriers preventing firms from equalising their expected MPK with the marginal cost of capital. The second source stems from discrepancies between the expected MPK and the realised MPK. Understanding the causes of capital misallocation is crucial for determining the necessity and form of policy interventions. To investigate that, we use a quarterly panel survey of French firms' expectations, combined with administrative data, which allows us to analyse in depth the relationship between expectations and capital misallocation. We show that dispersion in firms' ability to forecast their own outcomes contributes to the observed dispersion in MPK. This suggests that observed dispersion in MPK may not solely indicate frictions that prevent firms from implementing their optimal investment plans but may also stem from imperfect information. For more information about Alais Martin-Baillon and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: John Vincent Kramer."
"SODAS lecture: Interaction between Multiple Layers of Networked Relationships and Implications for Diffusion";"SODAS";"2024-06-17";"10:00";"2024-06-17";"11:30";"Gothersgade Auditoriet, Det Samfundsvidenskabelige Fakultetsbibliotek - Gothersgade 140, 1st floor, 1123 København K.";"SODAS Lecture by the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University Matthew O. Jackson";"Title: Interaction between Multiple Layers of Networked Relationships and Implications for Diffusion Abstract: People have relationships with others for many different reasons--for example, sharing advice and information, working together, borrowing and lending, etc.--a phenomenon called multiplexing. Using a dataset of about 30,000 households in 143 villages in Karnataka, India, we document some basic facts about multiplexing. There are significant correlations between different network layers, identifying a “backbone” social structure that is essentially orthogonal to standard network proxies such as geographic proximity or co-ethnicity. We demonstrate that statistics derived from the backbone network are strongly predictive of information diffusion. We show that multiplexing impedes simple contagions, but may enhance contagions of norms and behaviors that require reinforcement. Finally, we document how multiplexing varies by gender and wealth, potentially affecting information access. Matthew O. Jackson is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University and an external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute. He was at Northwestern University and Caltech before joining Stanford, and received his BA from Princeton University in 1984 and PhD from Stanford in 1988. Jackson's research interests include game theory, microeconomic theory, and the study of social and economic networks, on which he has published many articles and the books `The Human Network' and `Social and Economic Networks'. He also teaches an online course on networks and co-teaches two others on game theory. Jackson is a Member of the National Academy of Sciences, and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Econometric Society, and the Game Theory Society."
"Matthew O. Jackson, Stanford University";"Department of Economics jointly with SODAS";"2024-06-17";"10:00";"2024-06-17";"11:30";"Goth. Aud. 1, Gothersgade 140, 1123 København K";"""Interaction between Multiple Layers of Networked Relationships and Implications for Diffusion"". Department Seminar arranged by Department of Economics jointly with SODAS";"""Interaction between Multiple Layers of Networked Relationships and Implications for Diffusion"" Abstract People have relationships with others for many different reasons--for example, sharing advice and information, working together, borrowing and lending, etc.--a phenomenon called multiplexing. Using a dataset of about 30,000 households in 143 villages in Karnataka, India, we document some basic facts about multiplexing. There are significant correlations between different network layers, identifying a “backbone” social structure that is essentially orthogonal to standard network proxies such as geographic proximity or co-ethnicity. We demonstrate that statistics derived from the backbone network are strongly predictive of information diffusion. We show that multiplexing impedes simple contagions, but may enhance contagions of norms and behaviors that require reinforcement. Finally, we document how multiplexing varies by gender and wealth, potentially affecting information access. Matthew O. Jackson is the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics at Stanford University and an external faculty member of the Santa Fe Institute. He was at Northwestern University and Caltech before joining Stanford, and received his BA from Princeton University in 1984 and PhD from Stanford in 1988. Jackson's research interests include game theory, microeconomic theory, and the study of social and economic networks, on which he has published many articles and the books `The Human Network' and `Social and Economic Networks'. He also teaches an online course on networks and co-teaches two others on game theory. Jackson is a Member of the National Academy of Sciences, and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the Econometric Society, and the Game Theory Society. For more information about Matthew O. Jackson and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen"
"Onno Kleen, Erasmus University";"FRU (Finance Research Unit)";"2024-06-18";"11:00";"2024-06-18";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Equity Option Prices and Firm Characteristics "". Seminar arranged by FRU (Finance Research Unit)";"""Equity Option Prices and Firm Characteristics"" Abstract We investigate the information content of firm characteristics for the cross-section of equity option prices. We first show that 42 out of 86 characteristics significantly explain differences in the implied volatility surface (IVS) across stocks. Then, we exploit this relation to price equity options. We estimate the IVS of a given stock by using local linear forests to optimally pool option information from stocks with similar characteristics, which overcomes the illiquidity of the equity option market. Our method improves upon stock-specific benchmarks in pricing options out-of-sample and allows us to uncover the nonlinear interactions between characteristics and option prices. (Joint work with Gustavo Freire)"
"Till von Wachter, UCLA";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-06-18";"13:15";"2024-06-18";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Labor Market Impact of Shareholder Power: Worker-Level Evidence"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""The Labor Market Impact of Shareholder Power: Worker-Level Evidence"" Abstract Using worker-level data from the US Census Bureau’s LEHD program from 1993 through 2015, we show that shareholder power leads to large earnings losses for employees. We track the earnings of employees up to five years after their firms experience a material increase in concentrated ownership by block institutional shareholders, relative to employees of other firms that experience a similarly sized increase in ownership by diffused institutional shareholders. We find that over the next six years, the cumulative earnings of the affected employees decline by 10% of their pre-event annual earnings on average. Workers with “high skills” (such as those with earnings in the top tercile) and top managers (such as chief executives) bear the brunt of the negative impact, with the cumulative earnings declining by 16% and 63%, respectively. In contrast, shareholder power does not affect the earnings of employees with relatively low pay. There is also a negative impact on hiring but no impact on employee departures nor differential earnings losses conditional on departure, suggesting that separation is not the main channel underlying the earnings losses. The collection of evidence is consistent with concentrated ownership increasing shareholders’ bargaining power, which in turn reduces employees’ rents. With Antonio Falato, Daniel Gallego, and Hyunseob Kim. For more information about Till von Wachter and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Kristoffer Balle Hvidberg"
"David Atkin, MIT ";"Department of Economics";"2024-06-21";"10:30";"2024-06-21";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The incidence of misallocation"". Seminar arranged by DERG (Development Economics Research Group)";"""The incidence of misallocation"" Abstract The presence of pervasive market failures affecting economic activity is arguably the key feature that distinguishes developing countries from developed ones. A vast literature has produced a deep understanding of the implications of distortions for misallocation and aggregate standards of living. What is far less well understood, however, is the extent to which the burden of these distortions is shared equally across households. This project combines administrative microdata with general equilibrium models of heterogeneous agents in a distorted economic environment to obtain answers to this question in the context of Chile. Contact person: Neda Trifkovic"
"Lars Harhoff Andersen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-07-02";"15:00";"2024-07-02";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the dissertation is: The Wealth of Names: Measuring Values in Economic History";"Candidate: Lars Harhoff Andersen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: The Wealth of Names: Measuring Values in Economic History Supervisor: Jeanet Sinding Bentzen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Casper Worm Hansen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Edward Glaeser, Professor, Department of Economics, Harvard University Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, Professor, Department of Economics, Paris School of Economics Summary: The Ph.D. dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters, each developing novel ways of measuring cultural values and the way it affects economic and institutional development. In the first chapter (co-authored with Jeanet Bentzen), we examine the role played by religion for the emergence of modern science and economic growth. To do so, we develop novel measures of religiosity based on arguments in psychology and sociology that given names may reflect cultural identities of parents. To validate our measures, we find that among 487,000 individuals born in Europe between 1300 and 1940, those with religious names were more likely to hold religious occupations, be born after earthquakes and in areas where surveys indicate higher levels of religiosity. Next, we document that individuals with religious names were less inclined to become scientists, engineers, or to engage in advanced studies. For identification, we exploit family links and exogenous shocks to religiosity by earthquakes in migrants' birthplace. Last, we find that declining religiosity is associated with rising economic growth and more patents in cities across Europe. We rule out mechanisms such as differences across Protestants and Catholics, a general preference for tradition, birth-order effects, name-changing, and parental characteristics. The results corroborate a literature arguing that religion may conflict with modern science, which became increasingly important for economic growth after the Technological Revolution. In the second chapter, the impact of Germanic culture on democratic development in Europe is explored. The paper develops novel methods, using first names to measure the spread of Germanic culture across Europe. Using these methods, I estimate the effect of Germanic culture on democratization from the Middle Ages to the 21st century. First, I find that germanization is associated with the development of the protodemocratic institutions of the commune in the late Middle Ages and early modern period. Second, I find that germanization is associated with a higher level of democratic development at the national level from the early 19th century to the late 20th century. Finally, I find that regions with higher levels of germanization exhibit stronger democratic attitudes in the 21st century. The results contribute to a better understanding of why some regions are more Democratic, in the past and the present. While the idea that Germanic culture was beneficial to the development of democracy has been around for centuries, the present paper constitutes the first econometric test of the hypothesis. In the final chapter (co-authored with Tom Raster)we test this theory by devising a new measure of bourgeois values from first names in the US census, which we find to be strongly correlated with entrepreneurship and income. For identification, we leverage the ad hoc road trips of two prominent public exponents of bourgeois values in the early 20th century: Henry Ford and Thomas Edison. Referring to themselves as “the Vagabonds”, Edison and Ford quasi-exogenously exposed different localities to prominent bourgeois role models across several road trips between 1918 and 1924. Visits by “the Vagabonds” cause an increase in our measure of bourgeois values that, in turn, increase income and the frequency of entrepreneurship. Our findings suggest that culture and values drive innovation and that even moderate shocks to cultural values can have lasting effects. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Giuseppe Cavaliere, University of Bologna";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-07-04";"15:30";"2024-07-04";"16:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Bootstrap Diagnostic Tests"". Seminar arranged by ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics)";"""Bootstrap Diagnostic Tests"" Abstract Violations of the assumptions underlying classical asymptotic theory frequently lead to unreliable statistical inference. This paper proposes a novel bootstrap-based diagnostic procedure to detect such violations. The suggested approach (i) focuses on the distance between the conditional distribution of a bootstrap statistic and the (limiting) Gaussian distribution, and (ii) proposes a method to assess whether this distance is large enough to indicate the invalidity of the asymptotic approximation. The method, which is computationally straightforward, involves applying standard normality tests to a set of bootstrap repetitions to assess significant deviations from the Gaussian distribution. Importantly, these diagnostics do not induce any pre-testing bias, thus improving the reliability of statistical inference. To demonstrate the practical relevance and broad applicability of our diagnostic procedure, we discuss five scenarios where the asymptotic Gaussian approximation fails: (i) detecting infinite variance innovations in a location model for i.i.d. data; (ii) identifying non-stationary behavior in autoregressive time series; (iii) parameters near or at the boundary of the parameter space; (iv) invalidity of the delta method due to (near-)rank deficiency in the implied Jacobian matrix; and (v) weak instruments in instrumental variable regression. Joint with Luca Fanelli – University of Bologna Contact person: Anders Rahbek"
"Nordic Summer Symposium in Macroeconomics 2024";"Department of Economics and Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI)";"2024-08-06";"";"2024-08-09";"";"";"16th Nordic Summer Symposium in Macroeconomics, 6-9 August 2024 in Snekkersten, Denmark. ";"Nordic Summer Symposium in Macroeconomics 2024 The symposium is an academic research conference in the area of macroeconomics. It is primarily aimed at promoting frontier contributions by junior macroeconomic researchers. The symposium allows the junior researchers to present and discuss their research and to receive advice and constructive criticism from more senior macroeconomic scholars. Call for paper: The conference is primarily created to promote and facilitate the work of junior researchers. Researchers with an interest in or connection to the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) are particularly appreciated but the call is open to all junior applicants. Junior refers to those about to graduate from a PhD program, assistant professors, and recently tenured senior professors. Submission procedure: Interested applicants should complete the online application form. Please indicate whether you would be prepared to serve as a discussant of a paper. The deadline for submissions is Sunday April 7, 2024. For more information about the symposium: https://sites.google.com/view/normac2024/home"
"SODAS Data Discussion #1 (Fall 2024)";"SODAS";"2024-08-23";"11:15";"2024-08-23";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Torben Heien Nielsen and Jens Bjerring-Hansen for our SODAS Data Discussions fall 2024 series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspires to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just loose ideas that relate to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Torben Heien Nielsen Title: The Anatomy of Paradigm Shifts - The Role of Healthcare Professionals in the Proliferation of Ideas over 500 Years from 1479-2000 Abstract: A fundamental question in economics asks for the roots of history’s great mortality transition when life expectancy rose from 40 to 80 years in less than a century. We depart from the insight that science, knowledge, and technology are keys to any coherent explanation and combine this idea with results from research on contemporary economies, that physician beliefs about best practice and peer interactions are key inputs for population health. We ask two overarching questions: 1) What role did networks of healthcare professionals play in the spread and growth of medical ideas and innovations in the healthcare sector over a 500-year period? 2) How did the transmission of ideas and innovation ultimately benefit the health of the general population and the inequality across heterogeneous population groups? By training an artificial neural network to read more than 90,000 individual biographies identified in national archives, we have built a novel database covering the entire Danish labour force of physicians 1479-2000. Using this database, we will investigate the adoption of new ideas in networks of physicians and investigate whether historical circumstances in the physician labour market promoted or hindered the spread of ideas to the benefit of the population. Discussion 2 Presenter: Jens Bjerring-Hansen Title: Making Sense of 900 Novels - An Introduction to the MeMo and MiMe Projects Abstract: Jens Bjerring-Hansen is an associate professor at UCPH working with Scandinavian literature. He is the leader of the ongoing research project, MeMo – Measuring Modernity: Literary and Social Change in Scandinavia 1870-1900. In the presentation he will address the possibilities–and intricacies–of capturing literary and social trends in a large corpus of novels, inaccessible for a human reader, as well of making use of language models for analytical purposes when working with low-resource language data."
"Zeyu Zhao defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-08-23";"13:00";"2024-08-23";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays on Political and Organisational Economics.";"Candidate Zeyu Zhao, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title Essays on Political and Organisational Economics Supervisor Morten Bennedsen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee Nikolaj A. Harmon, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Astrid Kunze, Professor, NHH Norwegian School of Economics Steffen Andersen, Professor, Head of Research, Danmarks Nationalbank Summary The advancement of technology and the increased availability of data over the past few decades have significantly expanded the scope of empirical economic research. Utilising advanced econometric methods and rich datasets, researchers are increasingly able to investigate the nature and functioning of various aspects of our world. In my PhD thesis, I focus on two prominent fields of empirical economic research: political economics and organisational economics. By exploring rich and novel data, these studies contribute to our ever-expanding understanding of political processes and organisations. In the first chapter of my PhD thesis, I focus on political economics and investigate how athlete activism, which is becoming increasingly common over time, affects political outcomes. This chapter provides evidence that National Basketball Association (NBA) players' activism in between 2016 and 2020 has affected the political outcomes in the US. More specifically, I find that if a county has one active NBA player between the 2016 and the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the percentage of people voting for the Democratic Party would increase by around one percentage point. This result is obtained by using a difference in differences approach that compares these counties with a control group of counties that have an active minor league basketball player over the same period. I interpret this as the result of the role model effect by the local NBA athletes. To support this hypothesis, I show that these counties also have an increase in protests of more than 30 percent, one or two months after the police killing of George Floyd. Despite the increase in protests, polarisation does not rise in these counties as a result. I further show that having NBA athletes mainly increases the white population's awareness of racial inequality. These results support the role model effect channel and provide evidence that public leaders and activism play a significant role in social movements. I focus on organisational economics for the rest of my thesis. More specifically, I examine the interactions between organisations and labour. The second chapter of my thesis studies organisations' hiring behaviours and decisions. My co-authors Antoine Bertheau and Birthe Larsen and I design an innovative survey of firms and link it to the Danish administrative data to yield new insights about factors that can influence firms' hiring decisions. We find several important results. First, search and training frictions and economic uncertainty are as important as labour costs in hiring decisions. Second, search and training frictions are more likely to affect younger and smaller firms. Third, firms that prefer to hire employed rather than unemployed workers are more likely to report that labour market frictions and labour cost considerations alter their hiring decisions. Lastly, firms with inaccurate beliefs about their wages are more likely to report that labour cost considerations alter their hiring decisions. Overall, this chapter expands the existing understanding of and sheds new light on the hiring process and behaviours of organisations. The third chapter of my PhD thesis investigates how the working environment is linked to the outcomes of organisations and employees. Together with my co-authors Mario Daniele Amore, Morten Bennedsen, and Birthe Larsen, we use a large-scale survey and register data from Denmark to construct firm-level measures of the working environment, which allows us to capture its physical, psychological, and social dimensions. We document three stylised facts about firms with better working environments. First, they exhibit higher profitability. Second, they have higher innovation quality, as captured by patent citations and survey data. Third, their employees are healthier and have longer tenure. Overall, these findings are consistent with the belief that both shareholders and employees would benefit significantly from improvements in the working environment. An electronic copy of the thesis can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk."
"SODAS Lecture with Friedrich Götz";"SODAS";"2024-09-13";"11:00";"2024-09-13";"12:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"SODAS Lecture with Assistant Professor in Social-Personality Psychology at the University of British Columbia, Dr. Friedrich Götz.";"Title: The place to be? At the nexus of psychology and geography Abstract: Nobody lives in a vacuum. Whoever we are and wherever we go, every second of our existence is spent in a physical and sociocultural environment that we inevitably interact with. Building on this simple fact of life, in the present talk I argue that geography is foundational to psychology and that to understand who we are we need to understand where we are. To support this claim, I present original empirical findings that speak to three broad questions: 1) how do places differ psychologically? 2) why do places differ psychologically? and 3) what do these differences mean for individuals and the places in which they live? To address these questions, in my lab I combine large-scale geo-tagged personality datasets with diverse real-world behavioural outcomes and ecological indicators (e.g., housing prices, personal financial records, patent production rates) across multiple countries (e.g., India, Japan, USA) and spatial levels (e.g., states, cities). Among other results, this work 1) demonstrates systematic regional variation in Big Five personality traits, cultural tightness, courage, and loneliness, 2) identifies various ecological (e.g., mountainousness, walkability, climate), sociocultural (e.g., frontier spirit), and economic factors that may contribute to geographical psychological differences, and 3) shows how regional psychological differences may contribute to outcomes as diverse as suicide rates and individual spending. In the current talk, I present a whistle-strop tour of this program of research that highlights some of its most compelling and vexing results. I conclude with personal reflections on doing research at the nexus of psychology and geography and a list of resources for interested researchers and practitioners. Dr. Friedrich Götz (he/him) is an Assistant Professor in Social-Personality Psychology at the University of British Columbia, where he directs the Personality and Geographical Ambiance Laboratory (PANGEA LAB). Originally from Germany, Dr. Götz obtained his PhD from the University of Cambridge, and did a post-doc at the University of California, Berkeley. While easily excited about anything related to personality, the main focus of Dr. Götz’s research is on the causes and consequences of geographical personality differences. To study this, Dr. Götz pursues an interdisciplinary Big Data approach that seeks to combine classic interactionist theories from social and personality psychology with an applied behavioural science perspective and consequential real-world outcomes. Dr. Götz’s work has appeared in interdisciplinary and disciplinary journals such as Nature Human Behaviour, PNAS, American Psychologist, Perspectives on Psychological Science, and the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology and is frequently featured in national and international media outlets such as Scientific American, Forbes, MSNBC, DIE ZEIT, Radiotelevisione Italiana, El País, Neue Zürcher Zeitung and the BBC. At UBC, Dr. Götz teaches various personality courses and graduate classes on geographical psychology and advanced research methods. Outside of the lab, Dr. Götz enjoys running, kayaking and travelling and has a soft spot for dark chocolate, foreign languages, smoky Scotch, old cinemas, German poetry and long walks. He is hopeful that he’ll find a lot of these things in Copenhagen and is thrilled to meet you all at SODAS."
"Robert Adamek, Aarhus BSS";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-09-19";"13:00";"2024-09-19";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Sparse High-Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Bootstrap"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Sparse High-Dimensional Vector Autoregressive Bootstrap"" Abstract We introduce a high-dimensional multiplier bootstrap for time series data based capturing dependence through a sparsely estimated vector autoregressive model. We prove its consistency for inference on high-dimensional means under two different moment assumptions on the errors, namely sub-gaussian moments and a finite number of absolute moments. In establishing these results, we derive a Gaussian approximation for the maximum mean of a linear process, which may be of independent interest. Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard"
"SODAS Data Discussion #2 (Fall 2024)";"SODAS";"2024-09-20";"11:15";"2024-09-20";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Wiebke Junk and Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen for our SODAS Data Discussions fall 2024 series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspires to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just loose ideas that relate to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Wiebke Junk Title: Lobbying (A)Symmetry - The Dynamics Behind Informed Policy (LOBBYMETRY) Abstract: Wiebke will present the “Lobbying (A)symmetry: The Dynamics Behind Informed Policy” (LOBBYMETRY) project, which was recently awarded an ERC Starting Grant. The project addresses two types of imbalances in lobbying: 1) mobilisation asymmetries, which exclude some actors from the policy debate, and 2) information asymmetries, which empower specific groups in their exchanges with policymakers. The LOBBYMETRY project analyses these asymmetries and their relationship to each other, as well as their effects on the ways in which sectional and public interests feed into policymaking. The project studies these asymmetries across populations of interest organisations in twelve European countries and at European Union level, as well as within the climate and digital policy fields, that vary strongly in mobilisation asymmetries and constitute areas where well- or ill-informed policies have vast consequences for humanity at large. LOBBYMETRY strives to open the black-box of policymaker-lobbyist information exchange within these areas, develop measures of informational quality and accuracy in lobbying, and evaluate how and when lobbying pulls outcomes away from the public interest. Methodologically, the project combines cross-country surveys including an AI-aided survey experiment, cross-venue data on 100 issues in climate and digital policy, and different forms of participant observation of the information exchanges between policymakers and interest organisations in i) natural and ii) researcher-controlled settings. This innovative combination of methods will generate unprecedented quantitative and qualitative evidence on lobbyist-policymaker information exchange in varying contexts. If successful, the project will shed light on a serious blind spot in the state-of-the-art literature: the mechanisms through which lobbying actually informs policies. Its findings will speak to pressing democratic challenges, such as the underrepresentation of citizen interests in digital policy, and the design of institutional interventions to improve consultation practices, lobbying regulation, and the quality of legislation. Discussion 2 Presenter: Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen Title: Coded Clues - Unraveling Learning at High Resolution Abstract: Coded Clues investigates the impact of Intelligent Tutoring Systems on student learning and assessment. By leveraging advanced machine learning and econometric models, the research aims to evaluate the accuracy and fairness of these learning systems in measuring academic knowledge, the effects of teaching exposure, and the long-term learning outcomes. Utilizing high-resolution data from the learning platforms and Danish registry data, the findings will inform educational policy and promote data-driven discussions on the use of technology in education."
"CEN Workshop";"EduQuant, University of Copenhagen";"2024-09-25";"12:00";"2024-09-25";"18:00";"Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"";"About CEN The Copenhagen Education Network (CEN) is a group of economic researchers interested in education.The network was initiated in spring 2014 by economists from Economics Departments at Copenhagen Business School (CBS), University of Copenhagen (KU) and the Danish Center for Social Science Research (VIVE). It has since been joined by researchers from Lund University, Rockwool Fonden, Aarhus University and Kraks Fonden. The purpose is to provide a venue for economists focusing on education in their research, to present research papers and exchange ideas. We have three workshops every year, alternating between VIVE, UCPH, Lund, Rockwool, Aarhus and CBS. We discuss papers presented by the network participants and a guest speaker. Both theoretical and empirical papers will be presented. The workshop We are pleased to announce that the next Copenhagen Education Network workshop will be organized by UDDanKvant and held at Department of Economics at Copenhagen University, Wednesday September 25, 2024.The keynote speaker will be Katrine Løken: “Sources of Generational Persistence in Education and Income” Katrine V. Løken is Professor of Economics at the Norwegian School of Economics. Her PhD is from University of Bergen in 2010. She is co-research director at CELE since 2017, and a Principal Investigator at the Centre of Excellence FAIR (Centre for Experimental Research on Fairness, Inequality and Rationality). Her main research interests are in early investments in children, and the long-term outcomes and effects of different social policies. She has focused on identifying causal effects of policies such as parental leave, subsidized day care, father’s quota in leave, and cash subsidies for families. Her work combines state-of-the art statistical analysis with access to uniquely detailed Norwegian register data. More recently, she has started a new project looking at the causal effect of incarceration. With the aim of pushing the research frontier in the economics of crime, Løken has acquired access to unique datasets on criminals and victims. Katrine V. Løken has been published in leading economic journals, including American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Public Economics and American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. Katrine V. Løken is currently Managing Editor at Review of Economic Studies.(For more details about Katrine, see: https://sites.google.com/site/katrinecv/) The workshop will run from noon (including lunch) to around 17:30, followed by dinner. We aim for full paper presentations and shorter idea sessions where researchers are encouraged to present a research idea or very preliminary work. The submission is closed. Program Download the programme for the workshop. "
"NCBEE";"The Department of Economics";"2024-09-26";"08:00";"2024-09-27";"";"Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 København K";"Nordic Conference in Behavioural and Experimental Economics is the 16th edition of the conference, happening on Thursday the 26th to Friday the 27th of September, 2024.";"This yearly conference serves as a meeting point for behavioural and experimental economists active in the Nordic countries, but is also targeted more generally to academic researchers in Europe and beyond. The 16th edition of the conference, happening on Thursday the 26th to Friday the 27th of September, 2024 at the Department of Economics at the University of Copenhagen, will be co-organised by the Department of Economics at CBS and the Department of Technology, Management and Economics at DTU. The organiser team are Christina Gravert (KU), Thomas Markussen (KU), Jimmy Martinez-Correa (CBS), Toke Fosgaard (DTU). We are honoured to have as keynote speakers Michel Maréchal from University of Zurich and UCSD and Barbara Fasolo from LSE. The conference is supported financially by the Carlsberg Foundation and the University of Copenhagen. Call for papers Registration is closed. Notification of acceptance will be 17th of June and the registration deadline is 1st of August. Questions about the conference can be sent to Kamma Lind Halvorsen email: klh@econ.ku.dk Practicalities Conference package and travel The conference fee is DKK 700 (including VAT). The fee will cover two lunches and dinner on the 26th. Participants need to cover their own travel and accommodation. The University of Copenhagen has made arrangements with Wakeup Copenhagen, Borgergade. They offer reduced rates for participants in NCBEE 2024. Wakeup Copenhagen is located in the centre of Copenhagen nearby Kongens Nytorv Metro Station. One stop by metro from the conference venue or a 15-minute walk. We highly recommend participants to book their stay as soon as possible.Book your room through this link. The conference dinner will be held at Restaurant Vækst the 26th of September. Conference venue NCBEE will take place at the Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5. Keynotes Professor Michel Maréchal, University of Zürich and Rady School of Management Michel is a Visiting Professor of Economics at the Rady School of Management, UC San Diego and a Professor at the University of Zurich. His research is highly interdisciplinary, blending economics with social psychology, criminology, political science, and biology, and employs both field and lab experimental methods in collaboration with various organizations. Michel's work covers a wide range of topics including unethical behavior, crime, and economic preferences and has been frequently published in Nature, Science, and the AER among other top journals. He is an Associate Editor at the Journal of the European Economic Association. Website Professor Barbara Fasolo, London School of Economics and Political Science Barbara is an Associate Professor of Behavioural Science in the Department of Management at LSE, renowned for her expertise in choice processes. Her work, featured in top journals like the Annual Review of Psychology and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, explores the intricacies of decision-making in contexts of risk, trade-offs, and complexity. Through her research, Barbara aims to enhance decision-making with strategies such as choice architecture and debiasing, focusing on areas critical to well-being, such as health, finance, education, and public policy. She leads the LSE Behavioural Lab, a world-leading hub for research on human behavior. Website Programme The full program will be available in mid August. Wednesday 25.9 19.00-20.30 Informal Reception (At own expense).To be held at Cinematiket Rooftop. Link, Gothersgade 55, 1123 København K Thursday 26.9 9.00-9.30 Registration and coffee: Outside room 35.01.06 9.30-9.40 Welcome and practical information: 35.01.06 9.40-10.40 Keynote talk (Barbara Fasolo): “Beyond biases: interventions for mitigating bias in complex decisions”. 35.01.06 10.40-11.10 Coffee break: Outside room 1.1.02 11.10-12.30 Parallel session 1 (4 talks) 12.30-14.00 Lunch: 35.3.20 (Faculty Lounge) 14.00-15.00 Parallel session 2 (3 talks) 15.00-15.30 Coffee break: Outside room 1.1.02 15.30-16.30 Parallel session 3 (3 talks) 18.00-21.00 Conference dinner at “Vækst” Link. Sankt Peders Stræde 34, 1453 Copenhagen K Friday 27.9 9.30-10.00 Coffee: Outside room 1.1.02 10.00-11.20 Parallel session 4 (4 talks) 10.20-11.50 Coffee: Outside room 1.1.02 11.50-12.50 Parallel session 5 (3 talks) 12.50-13.50 Lunch: 35.3.20 (Faculty Lounge) 13.50-14.50 Keynote talk (Michel Maréchal): “Standing in Prisoners’ Shoes: An Experiment on How Incarceration Shapes Criminal Justice Attitudes” 35.01.06 14.50-16.00 Closing reception and group photo: outside room 35.01.06 Download the full program here. "
"Brian Higgins, Stockholm University";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-09-30";"14:15";"2024-09-30";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Racial Segmentation in the US Housing Market”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Racial Segmentation in the US Housing Market"" Abstract This paper studies racial segmentation in the US housing market since 1960. I document large differences in housing outcomes for Black and White households. In 1960, Black households on average are 20 percentage points less likely to own a house (relative to White households with the same income); if they owned, their house values are lower by the equivalent of almost one year of annual income; and even when renting they spend less by the equivalent of one month of rental expenditures. By 2019, the rent and price gaps have declined by about half, whereas the gap in ownership rates has not changed. To interpret these facts, I use a dynamic housing assignment model with a choice to buy or rent housing. I estimate the degree of market segmentation by inferring differences in the quality of housing available to Black and White households, and the resulting differences in rents, prices, and the cost of owning a home. The model infers that Black households pay higher quality-adjusted rents and prices, especially at higher qualities, and thus sort into lower quality homes. In terms of lifetime consumption-equivalent welfare, relative to an integrated market, the average Black household is five percent worse off in 1960 and remains one percent worse off in 2019. For more information about Brian Higgins and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: John Kramer"
"SODAS Lecture with Hilke Schellmann";"SODAS";"2024-10-04";"11:00";"2024-10-04";"12:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"SODAS Lecture with investigative reporter and assistant professor of journalism at New York University, Hilke Schellmann.";"Title: How to use non-traditional and interdisciplinary methods to hold AI accountable Abstract: I am an investigative reporter dedicated to uncovering systemic wrongdoing and its impact on vulnerable populations. My recent work has focused on holding artificial intelligence (AI) and algorithms accountable, while also telling the stories of those affected by this profound technological shift. Through exclusive testimony from whistleblowers, numerous Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests to obtain internal company documents, interviews with over 200 stakeholders, and my own real-world testing, I have discovered that some of these algorithms, which are responsible for making high-stakes decisions, often cause more harm than good. In my academic practice, I critically examine AI to determine if systematic wrongdoing is embedded within these software tools and whether they effectively address the problems they are designed to solve. To achieve this, I have led unconventional, systematic, and comprehensive research to understand how, when, and for whom these tools function - or fail to function. My work also investigates how to make the assumptions built into these tools explicit and explores the broad societal consequences of their shortcomings. In this lecture, I aim to demonstrate how ""non-traditional"" and interdisciplinary methods, often rooted in my investigative journalism practice, can be employed to hold AI tools accountable. Hilke Schellmann (she/her) is an Emmy award winning investigative reporter and assistant professor of journalism at New York University. As a contributor to The Wall Street Journal and The Guardian, Schellmann writes about holding artificial intelligence (AI) accountable. In her book, The Algorithm: How AI Decides Who Gets Hired, Monitored, Promoted, and Fired, And Why We Need To Fight Back (Hachette), she investigates the rise of AI in the world of work. Drawing on exclusive information from whistleblowers, internal documents and real‑world tests, Schellmann discovers that many of the algorithms making high‑stakes decisions are biased, racist, and do more harm than good. The book is longlisted for the Financial Times’ Best Business Book of the year award. Her eight-part investigative podcast and print series on AI and hiring for MIT Technology Review was a finalist for a Webby Award. Her documentary Outlawed in Pakistan, which played at Sundance and aired on PBS FRONTLINE, was recognised with an Emmy, an Overseas Press Club, and a Cinema for Peace Award amongst others. In her investigation into student loans for VICE on HBO, she uncovered how a spigot of easy money from the federal government is driving up the cost of higher education in the U.S. and is even threatening the country’s international competitiveness. The documentary was named a 2017 finalist for the Peabody Awards."
"Thomas Krause, Danmarks Nationalbank";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-10-07";"14:15";"2024-10-07";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Do Women Political Leaders Reduce Government Borrowing Costs? Evidence from U.S. Cities”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Do Women Political Leaders Reduce Government Borrowing Costs? Evidence from U.S. Cities"" Abstract This paper examines the impact of electing female mayors on the financing costs of municipal bonds. Using a regression-discontinuity-design on close mayoral elections in U.S. cities, we find that electing a female mayor results in a reduction of the bond spread by 16-39 basis points compared to electing a male mayor. This effect is not attributable to gender-based differences in fiscal policies or financial disclosures but rather to investors’ perceptions of female mayors. Female mayors receive increased media attention, and this gender effect is more pronounced in cities with a high concentration of individual municipal bond investors and lower levels of gender bias. A joint paper with Iftekhar Hasan and Yaxuan Qi. For more information about Thomas Krause and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Stelios Michalopoulos, Brown University";"Department of Economics";"2024-10-23";"14:00";"2024-10-23";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, room 26-2-21, 1353 Copenhagen K";"""Movies"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Movies"" Abstract Why are certain movies more successful in some markets than others? Are the entertainment products we consume reflective of our core values and beliefs? These questions drive our investigation into the relationship between a society’s oral tradition and the financial success of films. We combine a unique catalogue of local tales, myths, and legends around the world with data on international movie screenings and revenues. First, we quantify the similarity between movies’ plots and traditional motifs employing machine learning techniques. Comparing the same movie across different markets, we establish that films that resonate more with local folklore systematically accrue higher revenue and are more likely to be screened. Second, we document analogous patterns within the US. Google Trends data reveal a pronounced interest in markets where ancestral narratives align more closely with a movie’s theme. Third, we delve into the explicit values transmitted by films, concentrating on the depiction of risk and gender roles. Films that promote risk-taking sell more in entrepreneurial societies today, rooted in traditions where characters pursue dangerous tasks successfully. Films portraying women in stereotypical roles continue to find a robust audience in societies with similar gender stereotypes in their folklore and where women today continue being relegated to subordinate positions. These findings underscore the enduring influence of traditional storytelling on entertainment patterns in the 21st century, highlighting a profound connection between movie consumption and deeply ingrained cultural narratives and values. Joint work with Chris Rauh. Contact person: Pablo Selaya."
"SODAS Lecture with Stephan Lewandowsky";"SODAS";"2024-10-25";"11:00";"2024-10-25";"12:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"SODAS Lecture with Professor Stephan Lewandowsky from the University of Bristol.";"Title: Climate Change Fake News: The Challenges to Science in a ""Post-Truth"" World Abstract: I examine both the “supply side” and “demand side” of climate denial and the associated “fake news”. On the supply side I report the evidence for the organized dissemination of disinformation by political operatives and vested interests, and how the media respond to these distortions of the information landscape. On the demand side, I explore the variables that drive people’s rejection of climate science and lead them to accept denialist talking points, with a particular focus on the issue of political symmetry. The evidence seems to suggest that denial of science is primarily focused on the political right, across a number of domains, even though there is cognitive symmetry between left and right in many other situations. Why is there little evidence to date of any association between left-wing political views and rejection of scientific evidence or expertise. I focus on Merton’s (1942) analysis of the norms of science, such as communism and universalism, which continue to be internalized by the scientific community, but which are not readily reconciled with conservative values. Two large-scale studies (N>2,000 altogether) show that people’s political and cultural worldviews are associated with their attitudes towards those scientific norms, and that those attitudes in turn predict people’s acceptance of scientific. The norms of science may thus be in latent conflict with a substantial segment of the public. Finally, I survey the options that are available to respond to this fraught information and attitude landscape, focusing on consensus communication and psychological inoculation. Professor Stephan Lewandowsky is a cognitive scientist at the University of Bristol whose main interest is in the pressure points between the architecture of online information technologies and human cognition, and the consequences for democracy that arise from those pressure points. He is the recipient of numerous awards and honours, including a Discovery Outstanding Researcher Award from the Australian Research Council, a Wolfson Research Merit Fellowship from the Royal Society, and a Humboldt Research Award from the Humboldt Foundation in Germany. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Science (UK) and a Fellow of the Association of Psychological Science. He was appointed a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry for his commitment to science, rational inquiry and public education. He was elected to the Leopoldina (the German national academy of sciences) in 2022. Professor Lewandowsky also holds a Guest Professorship at the University of Potsdam in Germany. He was identified as a highly cited researcher in 2022 and in 2023 by Clarivate, a distinction that is awarded to fewer than 0.1% of researchers worldwide. His research examines the consequences of the clash between social media architectures and human cognition, for example by researching countermeasures to the persistence of misinformation and spread of “fake news” in society, including conspiracy theories, and how platform algorithms may contribute to the prevalence of misinformation. He is also interested in the variables that determine whether or not people accept scientific evidence, for example surrounding vaccinations or climate science. He has published hundreds of scholarly articles, chapters, and books, with more than 200 peer-reviewed articles alone since 2000. His research regularly appears in journals such as Nature Human Behaviour, Nature Communications, and Psychological Review. (See www.lewan.uk for a complete list of scientific publications.) His research is currently funded by the European Research Council, the EU’s Horizon 2020 programme, the UK research agency (UKRI, through Centre of Excellence REPHRAIN), the Volkswagen Foundation, the John Templeton Foundation (via Wake Forest University’s “Honesty Project”), Google’s Jigsaw, and by the Social Sciences Research Council (SSRC) Mercury Project. Professor Lewandowsky also frequently appears in print and broadcast media and has contributed around 100 opinion pieces to the global media. He has been working with policy makers at the European level for many years, and he was first author of a report on Technology and Democracy that has helped shape EU digital legislation."
"Jinglun Yao, Stockholm University";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-10-28";"14:15";"2024-10-28";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Knowledge is (Market) Power”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Knowledge is (Market) Power"" Abstract US corporate concentration has been persistently rising over the past century and productivity growth has been concurrently declining. This paper builds a continuous-time Schumpeterian growth model in which a uniform decline in research efficiency increases the relative growth of leading firms compared to laggards and endogenously thickens the Pareto tail of firms' productivity distribution. With a demand system featuring realistic variable demand elasticities, the model explains a large part of the dynamics of firms' productivity, corporate concentration, markup, labor share, R&D cost, entry and exit rates, as well as job creation and destruction rates in the US since the 1980s. The model can also accommodate increasing concentration with a stable markup and labor share in the pre-1980 period by accounting for the role of economic integration. The social planning problem which maximizes discounted consumer welfare is prima facie equivalent to a problem which maximizes discounted firm outputs. For more information about Jinglun Yao and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: John Kramer"
"Jonas Maibom, Aarhus University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-10-30";"13:15";"2024-10-30";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Effects of Individual Debt Relief on Health"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""The Effects of Individual Debt Relief on Health"" Abstract Individuals with extensive debt may be granted debt relief in court. We provide empirical evidence of how debt relief affects individual health such as long-term mortality, hospitalization and prescription drugs. Our data on the universe of applicants for debt relief in Denmark is collected from court records and linked to nationwide Danish registers. Using quasi-random assignment of applicants to court trustees with varying admission rates, we show that debt relief leads to a significant reduction in hospital usage and a large - but (somewhat) imprecise - decrease in mortality 20 and 25 years after applying. The reduction in hospital visits is partly explained by a reduction in diagnosis codes related to problems with the Cardiovascular and Respiraratory systems. We also find a large reduction in the use of prescription drugs. Our results suggest that it is in the long run being granted debt relief improves health, and that the economic value of the health effect is of similar size (or larger) as the previously documented improvements in labor market outcomes. Estimating impacts across subgroups also reveal that health benefits also arise for groups where labor market responses are limited (e.g. older workers). For more information about Jonas Maibom and hans interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Nikolaj A. Harmon"
"Jonas Striaukas, CBS";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-10-31";"14:00";"2024-10-31";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Testing for sparse idiosyncratic components in factor-augmented regression models"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Testing for sparse idiosyncratic components in factor-augmented regression models"" Abstract We propose a novel bootstrap test of a dense model, namely factor regression, against a sparse plus dense alternative augmenting model with sparse idiosyncratic components. The asymptotic properties of the test are established under time series dependence and polynomial tails. We outline a data-driven rule to select the tuning parameter and prove its theoretical validity. In simulation experiments, our procedure exhibits high power against sparse alternatives and low power against dense deviations from the null. Moreover, we apply our test to various datasets in macroeconomics and finance and often reject the null. This suggests the presence of sparsity — on top of a dense model — in commonly studied economic applications. The R package 'FAS' implements our approach. Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen"
"SODAS Data Discussion #3 (Fall 2024)";"SODAS";"2024-11-01";"11:15";"2024-11-01";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Marten Appel and Zoe Horlacher for our SODAS Data Discussions fall 2024 series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspires to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just loose ideas that relate to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Marten Appel Title: Secrets of a Good Life Abstract: Whether a person evaluates their life as good can be measured in a multitude of ways. Two common ones are whether a person is satisfied with and/or perceives their life to have meaning. A recently proposed third measure, psychological richness, states that people also value that they lead interesting lives. The presented project seeks to 1. investigate if this three-factor structure holds and 2. to examine the most important correlates of each dimension. We answer the first question using factor analysis on a large Danish sample. The second question, which will be the focus of the presentation, is investigated using preregistered linear models as well as a set of machine-learning models. The linear models inform us about prespecified expectations, while we use the machine-learning models to evaluate a large number of features based both on questionnaire as well as register data."
"Malene C. Fuglsang Laczek  defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-11-01";"14:00";"2024-11-01";"16:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays on Labor and Family Economics: Childhood Environment, Parental Retirement, and Household Commitment ";"Candidate: Malene Callesøe Fuglsang Laczek, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays on Labor and Family Economics: Childhood Environment, Parental Retirement, and Household Commitment Supervisors: Thomas Høgsholm Jørgensen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Mette Ejrnæs, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Andreas Steinhauer, Senior Lecturer, University of Edinburgh Ainoa Aparicio Fenoll, Associate Professor, University of Turin Summary: This PhD dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters, each investigating different ways in which family and environment impact labor supply decisions. In the first chapter (joint with Antonio Coran and Francesca Miserocchi), we explore the impact of childhood environment on the earnings penalties that mothers face at the birth of their first child. Using administrative data from Denmark, we classify municipalities based on the motherhood penalties experienced by permanent residents. High-penalty places offer fewer human capital development opportunities and have a lower labor supply of women in the previous generation. We use a movers' design to distinguish the causal effect of childhood environment from the sorting of families. Our findings indicate that women who spent a longer period of their childhood in a high-penalty area experience lower earnings after childbirth, even though they have similar earnings the years before the birth of their first child. Next, we find that policies that impact the childhood environment can influence motherhood penalties; increases in childcare availability during childhood lower motherhood penalties decades later. We show suggestive evidence that higher childhood exposure to working women can act as a mechanism. In the second chapter, I explore how the labor supply of one generation affects the next. Utilizing longitudinal Danish register data and a large retirement reform, I document that parents' retirement significantly affects the labor supply of their adult children. This inter-generational link is driven solely by mothers. Concretely, mothers’ retirement permanently increases their adult children’s income rank by 7 income rank points, driven by increased hours worked, participation in the labor force, improved occupational rank, and wage increases. I find that the inter-generational link is strongest among mothers who have grandchildren, and that the child penalty for adult daughters is 17% lower for those whose mothers can retire earlier, suggesting an important role of informal childcare as a driving mechanism. Survey data confirm that retirement affects informal childcare provision, even in a country with universal access to highly subsidized formal childcare. In the final chapter (joint with Thomas Høghsholm Jørgensen), we assess the performance of a recent test for commitment. The degree of commitment that individuals have to their partners can have significant implications for decision making within households. Generally, models of household behavior can be categorized into three alternative models of commitment: No commitment, Limited Commitment, and Full Commitment. Recent empirical tests have been proposed to shed light on the degree of commitment within couples using realized behavior. Nothing is known, however, about the performance of these tests. We provide two contributions in this regard. First, we assess the performance of a recent test in a controlled environment where the true type of commitment is known. Second, we provide a modified test that performs better in our Monte Carlo simulations. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Rustam Jamilov, University of Oxford";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-11-04";"14:15";"2024-11-04";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“HBANK: Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Banks”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""HBANK: Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Banks"" Abstract We study monetary, liquidity, and macroprudential policy transmission in a Heterogeneous Bank New Keynesian (HBANK) model that is solved in sequence space. Using a sufficient-statistic approach, we show that the combination of incomplete markets and costly bank insolvency breaks the “as-if” result, generating substantial amplification of policy shocks relative to the representative-bank benchmark. There is a trade-off between macroeconomic and financial stabilization: contractionary monetary policy worsens financial stability by raising the likelihood of bank insolvency in the lower tail of the bank size distribution. We enrich our baseline framework with departures from perfect deposit and credit market competition and apply it to the study of monetary, forward guidance, macroprudential, and reserve requirement policies. We validate our model empirically with novel cross-sectional and time-series facts on U.S. commercial banks. Co-authors: Marco Bellifemine (LSE) and Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi University) For more information about Rustam Jamilov and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: John Kramer"
"Dennis Kristensen, UCL";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-11-06";"15:00";"2024-11-06";"16:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Penalised Continuous-Updating GMM Estimators: Shrinking the No-moment Problem"". Seminar arranged by ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Penalised Continuous-Updating GMM Estimators: Shrinking the No-moment Problem"" Abstract We propose a class of penalised estimators as a solution to the no--moment problem of the GMM Continuously Updated Estimator (CUE). We analyse the finite-sample and asymptotic properties of the CUE and its penalised version, and show that the added penalty reduces finite--sample variability and restores moments. We also analyse the higher--order properties of the penalised version which provides guidelines for how to choose the penalty. Our preferred penalised estimator, which we call the quasi-likelihood GMM (QL--GMM) estimator, uses the log-determinant of the optimal weighting matrix as penalty. This choice of penalty is justified asymptotically since the QL-GMM objective function is the large--sample log--likelihood of the sample moments. The implementation of the penalised estimators are computationally less burdensome compared to the standard CUE, and the former perform well in simulations with significantly smaller variance compared to the latter, while paying only a small price in terms of slightly bigger biases. Contact person: Anders Rahbek"
"Peter Reinhard Hansen, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-11-08";"14:00";"2024-11-08";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Option Pricing with Time-Varying Volatility Risk Aversion"". Seminar arranged by ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Option Pricing with Time-Varying Volatility Risk Aversion"" Abstract We introduce a pricing kernel with time-varying volatility risk aversion that can explain the observed time variation in the shape of the pricing kernel. Dynamic volatility risk aversion, combined with the Heston-Nandi GARCH model, leads to a convenient option pricing model, denoted DHNG. The variance risk ratio emerges as a fundamental variable, and we show that it is closely related to economic fundamentals and common measures of sentiment and uncertainty. DHNG yields a closed-form pricing formula for the VIX, and we propose a novel approximation method that provides analytical expressions for option prices. We estimate the model using S&P 500 returns, the VIX, and option prices, and find that dynamic volatility risk aversion leads to a substantial reduction in VIX and option pricing errors. Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen"
"Kira Lancker, University of Copenhagen (IFRO)";"Environmental Economics Group";"2024-11-18";"13:00";"2024-11-18";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Do private incentives crowd out public good donations? Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Do private incentives crowd out public good donations? Evidence from a lab-in-the-field experiment"" Abstract When contributions to public goods bring added private benefits, those additional gains may crowd out the individual's motivation to contribute. We study this effect through a lab-in-the-field, within-individual experiment with 2,058 participants from rural Senegal, involving two donation games: one with a private incentive (``impure'') and the other without (``pure''). We show in a simple theoretical model how the games identify a mechanism whereby the private incentive changes the marginal warm glow from donations, potentially leading to motivational crowding out. Then we estimate an individual fixed effects model and find strong evidence for motivational crowding out. Respondents who play the impure game after playing the pure game reduce their donations by 5-35\%. This reduction is increasing and convex in pure game donations, which suggests that the distribution of donations across donors affects the aggregate motivational crowding out effect. We study individual-level heterogeneity using causal forests and find that wealthier and better educated households are more susceptible to motivational crowding out. Contact person: Frikk Nesje"
"Louis A. Rene Fréget defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-11-19";"15:00";"2024-11-19";"17:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Four Essays in Health Economics – Early Health Inequality, Early Investments and Family Well-being.";"Candidate: Louis Alexandre Rene Fréget, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Four Essays in Health Economics – Early Health Inequality, Early Investments and Family Well-being Supervisors: Miriam Wüst, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Hans Henrik Sievertsen, Professor MSO, VIVE Assessment Committee: Torben Heien Nielsen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Rita Ginja, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Bergen Krzysztof Karbownik, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Emory University Summary: This PhD dissertation documents early health and socioemotional inequalities in Denmark and isolates some of their determinants. It consists of four self-contained chapters. The first two chapters have a descriptive aim. They reveal new patterns that connect inequalities in birth outcomes, infant health, maternal mental health, parental investments, and children’s socioemotional development. The final two chapters employ quasi-experimental methods to uncover determinants of birth outcomes and postpartum maternal mental health. The first chapter of my dissertation is joint work with Jonas Ćuzulan Hirani and Miriam Wüst. Mental health issues are among the most common complications of childbirth. We examine the relationship of maternal postnatal mental health issues and family outcomes in population data from a universal screening program for new parents in Denmark. We present three sets of findings: First, using an event study approach, we document that postnatal mental health issues contribute to the child penalty in labor market outcomes. Second, we explore the relationship of maternal mental health issues with family well-being, parental behaviors and infant socio-emotional development. We document oftentimes non-linear relationships between higher maternal depression risks and worse family outcomes. Zooming in on fathers, we find spillovers of poor maternal mental health on fathers’ hours worked and on their involvement in the family (suggesting compensating behaviors by fathers). Third, examining the timing of health care usage during the first year of the child’s life, we show women’s uptake of low-complexity care increases around the suggested timing of the universal screening. The second chapter is joint work with Hans Sievertsen and Miriam Wüst. Both family income around birth and health at birth are positively associated with favorable later life outcomes for children. However, evidence from Sweden and the US shows that children in the upper part of the income distribution have worse health at birth than children further down the income distribution. We confirm this pattern using Danish data and also confirm that the negative income-health-at-birth relationship is driven by two factors: higher maternal age and higher rates of non-singleton births in the upper part of the income distribution. Studying the first year of the child's life, we show that high-income families are able to compensate for the initial worse health status: higher family income is associated with more days of exclusive breastfeeding, fewer emergency GP contacts, fewer nurse visits, higher first-year weight, and faster socioemotional development. The third chapter is joint work with Maria Koch Gregersen. It uses a quasi-experimental approach to isolate the medical and social impacts of a labor induction guideline in Denmark. Despite routine induction for mothers with a high BMI being frequent in developed countries, there is no consensus on the net benefits of the practice for higher-risk populations such as obese mothers. We study the consequences of earlier routine induction of labor for a growing sub-population of pregnancies: high-BMI women. Using a regression discontinuity design, we exploit Danish obstetric guidelines mandating inductions for mothers with a BMI of at least 35 one week after the due date instead of 10-13 days after. In addition to improving short-term health of both mother and child, early labor induction reduces the number of nurse visits during the first year of life as well as maternal postpartum depression risk (suggestive). The intervention has no statistically significant medium-run effect on maternal supply nor on fertility in the medium-run. The chapter which closes the dissertation is solo-authored. I study the effects of general physicians’ practice closures during pregnancy on birth outcomes. Understanding the impact of clinic closures appears to be a crucial stake. The aging of the general physician workforce in developed countries is expected to lead to increased practice closures. Hence, concerns arise regarding the health effects of such closures, particularly for patients facing them during critical life stages such as pregnancy. However, no study exists to date on the health effects of general physicians’ (GP) practice closures during pregnancy. I compare the birth outcomes of mothers experiencing practice closures within nine months post-conception to those facing closures nine months prior to conception. I find a small to medium-sized adverse effect of discontinuity in care on birth outcomes. The negative effect on birth weight is especially pronounced when the closure happens in the last trimester of pregnancy. Such dip in birth weight for mothers facing a closure in their last pregnancy trimester is pronounced enough to be readily seen in the descriptive data. Consistently, mothers affected by GP practice closures during pregnancy experience small disruptions in healthcare provision at the extensive and at the intensive margin. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Camilla Skovbo Christensen defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-11-22";"15:00";"2024-11-22";"17:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Tax Incentives and Saving Behavior.";"Candidate: Camilla Skovbo Christensen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Tax Incentives and Saving Behavior Supervisors: Søren Leth-Petersen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Torben Heien Nielsen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Gopi Shah Goda, Senior Fellow in Economic Studies and Director of the Retirement Security Project, The Brookings Institution Kasper Meisner Nielsen, Professor, Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School Summary: This PhD dissertation investigates how individuals adjust their saving behavior in response to changes in economic incentives and circumstances. Many governments spend substantial resources on policies that aim to encourage specific financial decisions, e.g., providing tax incentives for individuals to increase their retirement contributions. Understanding how individuals respond to changes in incentives is crucial for the design and effectiveness of such policies. Furthermore, investigating saving adjustments across different contexts is essential to uncover the factors that influence financial decision-making. This dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters on individual saving decisions in response to changes in incentives for retirement saving, mortgage refinancing, and stock market participation. The first chapter (co-authored with Bastian Emil Ellegaard) investigates the effect of tax subsidies for retirement saving on total private saving. Previous literature suggests that tax subsidies in retirement accounts result in a shift of saving between different saving accounts at the top-end of the income distribution and are thus ineffective at impacting total saving. We exploit exogenous variation from a pension reform in Denmark that changed the tax incentives for saving in the pension scheme that holds the highest tax advantage for middle-income workers. We show that a reduction in tax subsidies for retirement saving reduces total private saving. Specifically, only 64 pct. of reduced saving in this pension scheme is substituted to other types of saving. Our results thereby imply that changes in tax subsidies can affect private saving behavior. The second chapter (co-authored with Henrik Yde Andersen, Claus Thustrup Kreiner, and Søren Leth-Petersen) examines whether it is the same people who do not respond to changes in incentives across financial decisions. Many individuals forego substantial financial gains by not responding actively to incentives, and previous studies show that such inaction is prevalent when people face incentives to adjust their retirement savings or refinance their mortgage. We examine whether this inaction, which we label passive decision-making, is systematic across decisions. We do so in a multiple quasi-experimental setting where we measure individual-level responses to two policies that change tax incentives for retirement saving and to periods of interest rate changes that make it profitable for mortgage holders to refinance. We show that it is rarely the same people who systematically respond passively in both contexts. This suggests that passive financial decision-making is not dominated by inherent behavioral traits of the individual. The third chapter (co-authored with Isabel Skak Olufsen) investigates the effects of cohabiting with a partner on stock market participation. We show that cohabitation increases both entry into and exit from the stock market. Those who enter the stock market are predominantly individuals who cohabit with a partner with stock market experience. Those who exit are predominantly individuals who cohabit with a partner while also becoming homeowners. Our results suggest that information spill-over within couples can increase participation, and that couples who purchase a home at cohabitation face liquidity needs and additional risk that offset the positive effects of cohabitation on stock market participation. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"CANCELLED! Lukas Freund, Columbia University's Business School";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-11-25";"14:15";"2024-11-25";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“Superstar Teams”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Superstar Teams"" Abstract Most people work in teams, a feature absent from typical macro models. I propose a tractable theory in which production requires many differentiated tasks, workers possess heterogeneous task-specific skills, and team formation involves search. Skill specificity endogenously generates coworker talent complementarities: talented workers gain more from more talented colleagues. This promotes the concentration of talent into a few firms with ""superstar teams.'' Using administrative panel data for Germany, I validate this mechanism and explore the macroeconomic implications of team production. Growing skill specificity since the mid-1980s has amplified coworker complementarities, which explains increased firm-level wage inequality. Only a fraction of the productivity gains from increased specialization materializes unless accompanied by enhanced matching of coworkers with complementary skills. For more information about Lukas Freund and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: John Kramer"
"Sigurd Nellemann Thorsen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-11-25";"16:00";"2024-11-25";"18:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays in Financial Econometrics";"Candidate: Sigurd Nellemann Thorsen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays in Financial Econometrics Supervisors: Anders Rahbek, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Henrik Hansen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Dennis Kristensen, Professor, Department of Economics, University College London Leopoldo Catania, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University Summary: This PhD dissertation consists of three separate and self-contained chapters within financial econometrics. All the chapters include econometric theory, a simulation experiment of the asymptotic results, and an empirical application of the paper’s methodology.The first chapter of my dissertation is joint work with Heino B. Nielsen, Rasmus S. Pedersen, and Anders Rahbek. The chapter examines the GARCH-X model and focuses on the hypothesis of testing the inclusion of explanatory variables in the conditional variance equation. Due to the boundary constraints on nuisance parameters, the likelihood-ratio (LR) test statistic has a non-standard limiting distribution, complicating inference. To address this issue, we introduce the ""Fixed Shrinkage"" (FS) bootstrap method, which is carefully tailored to this testing problem in the GARCH-X model and correctly replicates the limiting distribution of the LR statistic. In an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study, we investigate our proposed FS bootstrap method's empirical size and power properties and find that it shows great finite sample properties. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposed bootstrap in an application on volatility modeling of stock market indices. In the second chapter, we consider backtesting Value-at-Risk (VaR), which is subject to estimation risk in the class of volatility models on the form rt = δtηt. The paper focuses on the widely used unconditional coverage (UC) and conditional coverage (CC) tests from Christoffersen (1998), and we illustrate when VaR estimates are subject to estimation risk, the standard limiting X2 (1) and X2 (2) distributions typically used for backtesting are generally no longer valid. To account for estimation risk in VaR estimates, we propose an easily implemented correction for the UC test and a simple simulation-based method to obtain critical values for the CC test statistic. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, we showcase our theory in finite samples and find that our corrected tests display attractive size properties. In an empirical application, we highlight the GARCH-X model augmented with realized volatility (RV) for risk management. In the third chapter, we investigate the temporal dependence in option observation errors, which is previously unexplored in the literature. The asymptotic setting is infill type, with the time between options shrinking to zero and the log-strike values of neighboring options in the cross-section shrinking to zero. To test for temporal dependence in option observation errors, we propose a Portmanteau test statistic, which, under the null hypothesis of no temporal dependence in the option observation errors, has a standard limiting chi-squared distribution. We obtain good finite sample properties for our proposed inference methods in an empirically relevant simulation setting. By applying our methodology to high-frequency S&P 500 index options, we find considerable evidence of temporal dependence in option observation errors subject to a large degree of heterogeneity across maturities of the options and their range of strike values. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Paolo Santucci De Magistris, LUISS";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-11-26";"16:00";"2024-11-26";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Realized Illiquidity"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Realized Illiquidity"" Abstract We develop a simple theory of realized illiquidity, defining it as the ratio between realized volatility and trading volume. Building on the popular price impact measure introduced by Amihud (2002), we propose the realized Amihud measure, which refines and improves accuracy. We demonstrate that the realized Amihud is significantly more precise and robust, accommodating various factors such as stochastic volatility, microstructure noise, and information jumps. Using a cross-section of U.S. stocks, we examine the time-series properties of realized illiquidity, including heterogeneous clustering, leverage effects, and its predictive power for short-term stock returns. Contact person: Anders Rahbek"
"Isabel Skak Olufsen defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-11-27";"13:00";"2024-11-27";"15:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Inequality, Well-Being, and the Role of Peers.";"Candidate: Isabel Skak Olufsen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Inequality, Well-Being, and the Role of Peers Supervisors: Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Søren Leth-Petersen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Christina Gravert, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Andrew Clark, Professor, Paris School of Economics Fane Groes, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School Summary: Over the past decades, many Western countries have experienced steadily rising inequality and declining social mobility, raising concerns among policymakers and the public alike. To guide policy to mitigate these trends, it is important to understand the nature of the inequality, its potential consequences, and individuals' attitudes towards policies to reduce inequality. This PhD sheds light on the aforementioned in four self-contained chapters using Danish administrative, survey, and experimental data. The first chapter, which is joint work with Claus Thustrup Kreiner, investigates whether inequality in well-being is meritocratic, i.e., whether differences in subjective well-being are mostly related to socioeconomic background or to individual merits (ability and effort). We decompose inequality in subjective well-being into inequality due to socioeconomic background and meritocratic inequality due to differences in individual merits such as school performance. We find that inequality in well-being is more meritocratic than income inequality and more meritocratic as people grow older. The second chapter is written with Jesper Fries. In this chapter, we analyze the effect of having resourceful peers on pupils' well-being, absence rate, and academic performance in elementary school. To estimate the causal effect, we compare pupils in the same school who started school in different years and, consequently, were exposed to different shares of resourceful peers. We find that a higher share of resourceful peers does not affect absence rates, but increases well-being and performance. The third chapter is written with Camilla Skovbo Christensen. We estimate the effect of cohabiting with a partner on stock market participation using rich administrative data from Denmark. We show that cohabitation increases both entry into and exit from the stock market, leaving the average participation rate unchanged. Those who enter the stock market are predominantly individuals who move in with a partner with stock market experience. Those who exit are predominantly individuals who move in with a partner while also becoming homeowners. Our results suggest that information spillover within couples can increase participation, and that couples who purchase a house at cohabitation face liquidity needs that offset the reduced barriers to participation. The fourth chapter is joint work with Thomas Epper, Ernst Fehr, Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Søren Leth-Petersen, and Peer Ebbesen Skov. We investigate whether advantageous inequality (comparison relative to those worse off) and disadvantageous inequality (comparison relative to those better off) predicts support for redistribution. Theory predicts that support for public redistribution increases with both types of inequality aversion, while private redistribution should increase with advantageous inequality. Our empirical results provide strong support for these predictions and with quantitatively large effects compared to other predictors. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"SODAS Data Discussion #4 (Fall 2024)";"SODAS";"2024-11-29";"11:15";"2024-11-29";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Hjalmar Bang Carlsen and Yevgeniy Golovchenko for our SODAS Data Discussions fall 2024 series.";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspires to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just loose ideas that relate to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Hjalmar Bang Carlsen Title: The Performance Accountability Tradeoff in AI Interviews - Comparing Open Source, Open Weight and Proprietary LLMs for Chat Based Qualitative Interviews Abstract: In this presentation, I discuss the performance and accountability tradeoff in AI Interviews. AI-interviews use LLM agents to act as interviewers that ask questions and follow-up questions to respondents in manners similar to that of the semi-structured interview. Most recent applications have used versions of Chat-gpt, a closed proprietary model, and arguably the best performing model. Our own efforts in the AI-interviewer project use open weight and open source models. Open models allow for better data security, transparency and model stability, ultimately allowing for a more accountable research practice. Ultimately, I'll argue that for AI-interviews, and social science applications more broadly, open models need to be the basis of our methodological developments. Discussion 2 Presenter: Yevgeniy Golovchenko Title: Sanction Evasion and Covert Maritime Networks Abstract: In the past decade, a global ""shadow fleet"" of vessels has emerged to evade sanctions, violating international maritime law and supporting smuggling activities that fund wars, such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine. These fleets, often non-compliant with safety regulations, pose significant environmental risks, exemplified by a recent tanker explosion off Malaysia. Despite these threats, shadow shipping remains understudied. This project conducts a systematic analysis of shadow fleet operations, using geospatial vessel tracking data to build a global oil tanker dataset. Focusing on Russia, which has constructed the largest shadow fleet to bypass EU and G7 sanctions, the study employs social data science methods to explore maritime sanctions evasion strategies. By bridging social data science methods and maritime security studies, the research fills a critical knowledge gap and demonstrates how ship tracking data can enhance social science methodologies for analyzing illicit maritime networks."
"CANCELLED! Liliana Varela, London School of Economics";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-12-02";"14:15";"2024-12-02";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“TBA”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Liliana Varela and her interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Emily Nix, USC Marshall School of Business";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-12-03";"13:15";"2024-12-03";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Dating and Breaking Up with the Boss: Benefits, Costs, and Spillovers"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Dating and Breaking Up with the Boss: Benefits, Costs, and Spillovers"" Abstract While romantic relationships between coworkers are common, intimate relationships between managers and subordinates have increasingly come under scrutiny. This article uses administrative data covering the universe of cohabiting couples in Finland to explore the career implications of dating and breaking up with a manager and the spillovers of these relationships on the broader workforce. Using an event study design, we find that starting a relationship with a manager leads to a 7% increase in earnings. When a manager and subordinate break up, the subordinate's earnings abruptly fall by 18%. Last, we examine the spillovers of these relationships on the broader workforce. We document a 6 percentage point decrease in retention of other workers from these relationships, with larger effects for smaller establishments and establishments where the subordinate had larger earnings gains. We conclude that these relationships impose negative externalities on colleagues, including but not limited to exit from the firm. For more information about Emily Nix and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Daphné Skandalis"
"Patrick Weiss, Reykjavik University ";"FRU (Finance Research Unit)";"2024-12-04";"10:30";"2024-12-04";"11:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-1-21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Methodological uncertainty in portfolio sorts"". Seminar arranged by FRU (Finance Research Unit)";"”Methodological uncertainty in portfolio sorts” Abstract Systematically studying methodological variation in portfolio sorts reveals four key insights: (1) The average monthly non-standard error is 0.19% and exceeds standard errors. Despite this considerable variation, the majority of estimated premia are robust regarding their sign, statistical significance, and monotonicity. This alleviates concerns about replicability. (2) Decisions such as excluding firms with negative earnings or the information lag have an impact comparable to size-related choices. (3) Methodological choices induce not just orthogonal noise but add predictably non-zero returns. (4) To incorporate methodological uncertainty, we propose a two-step protocol adaptable to economic motivations, for which we provide an open-source tool. Contact person: Stefan Voigt"
"Nicolai Waldstrøm defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-12-06";"09:00";"2024-12-06";"11:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays in International Macroeconomics with Heterogeneity";"Candidate: Nicolai Waldstrøm, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays in International Macroeconomics with Heterogeneity Supervisors: Søren Hove Ravn, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Jeppe Druedahl, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Morten Graugaard Olsen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Federica Romei, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Oxford Edouard Challe, Professor, Paris School of Economics Summary: This Ph.D. thesis consists of four self-contained chapters, which all explore how aggregate business cycle dynamics and stabilization policy are shaped by micro-level heterogeneity in small open economies. The first three chapters focus on household heterogeneity, while the fourth investigates firm heterogeneity. In the first chapter, written with Jeppe Druedahl, Søren Hove Ravn, Laura Sunder-Plassmann, and Jacob Marott Sundram, we investigate the effects of foreign demand shocks. Empirically, we find that such shocks have significant spillover effects on domestic GDP, employment, and consumption, impacting both tradeable and non-tradeable sectors. We argue that these dynamics are better captured by a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model than a Representative Agent (RANK) model. Our analysis shows that monetary policy effectively mitigates these shocks, while fiscal policy is less effective due to asymmetric sectoral effects. In the second chapter, written with Jeppe Druedahl, Søren Hove Ravn, Laura Sunder-Plassmann, and Jacob Marott Sundram, we analyze the effectiveness of fiscal policy in a small open economy HANK model. While the inclusion of borrowing-constrained agents typically leads to larger fiscal multipliers in closed economies, our findings reveal that the difference between HANK and RANK multipliers diminishes in open economies. This occurs due to leakage effects, where increases in domestic demand leaks abroad, and expenditure switching, which limits the strength of the Keynesian multiplier. In the third chapter, I investigate the transmission of inflationary shocks in a small open economy HANK model. I demonstrate that redistributive effects of inflation through reduced real wages can be sufficient to generate a domestic contraction. I show that the optimal monetary policy response to inflationary cost-push shocks in a HANK model involves raising interest rates more aggressively than in a RANK model. This is optimal since a large exchange rate appreciation stabilize inflation, real wages, and demand in the HANK model with minimal employment impact. The fourth chapter, written with Christian Bartels Kastrup, explores how firm heterogeneity shapes the transmission of foreign supply shocks. Using Danish firm-level data, we estimate firm-level responses to increases in import prices, identified using differential trade exposure. We estimate a multi-sector heterogeneous firm model to be consistent with our empirical estimates and show that the inflationary effects of foreign supply shocks are amplified by the presence of larger, material-intensive firms. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Julien Daubanes, Technical University of Denmark - DTU";"Environmental Economics Group";"2024-12-09";"12:00";"2024-12-09";"13:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet"". Seminar arranged by Environmental Economics Group";"""The Dynamics of Evasion: The Price Cap on Russian Oil Exports and the Amassing of the Shadow Fleet"" Abstract This paper examines the effectiveness of the price cap on Russian oil exports implemented in December 2022 by Western countries in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. We develop a dynamic model that accounts for Russia's incentives to build evasion capacity through a shadow fleet. Our analysis combines dynamic modeling, empirical calibration, and numerical simulation to assess various policies intended to reduce Russia's oil profits, which fund its invasion. While the initial proposal was to ban insurance and all other Western services used to transport Russian oil by sea, the sanction finally adopted by Western countries allows the use of Western services but only if Russia receives no more than $60 per barrel (the ""price cap""). We find that both the price cap and the service ban significantly (by more than 23%) reduce the present value of Russia's profits compared to no policy. The $60 price cap reduces the present value of Russia's oil profits slightly more (by 2%) than a service ban while avoiding the spike in the world oil price that a service ban would have produced. These results remain robust under various assumptions about global demand elasticity and discount factors. More generally, a cap lower than $60 reduces the present value of Russia's profits slightly less than a $60 cap despite its greater immediate impact on profits. Our calibrated model also allows us to examine current policy debates about how increased enforcement of the cap and of sanctions eliminating a segment of the shadow fleet would affect Russian profits and the world price. Contact person: Peter Birch Sørensen"
"CANCELLED! Martin Watzinger, University of Münster";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-12-09";"14:15";"2024-12-09";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"“TBA”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Martin Watzinger and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Morten G. Olsen"
"Jesper Fries defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-12-11";"13:30";"2024-12-11";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays in Education Economics - Class Size, Peers and Teacher Assessments.";"Candidate: Jesper Fries, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays in Education Economics - Class Size, Peers and Teacher Assessments Supervisors: Mette Ejrnæs, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Miriam Wüst, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Mette Foged, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Hans Henrik Sievertsen, Professor MSO, VIVE Ludger Wößmann, Professor, Department of Economics, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich Summary: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters, all within the field of Education Economics. All chapters are empirical papers about students and teachers in Danish public schools from grade 0 to grade 9. All papers exploit data on either student wellbeing, test scores, absence rates, or final GPA. Two of the papers also use administrative data. Chapter 1: Class Size Revisited and Student Well-Being Extensive literature exists on the effect of class size on academic performance. This paper extends this work by examining the causal effect of class size on student well-being and perceived school quality in the Danish public school system. First, in line with recent research, I show that comparisons of different school-cohorts locally around thresholds induced by a class size cap can be misleading even in a public school system. Second, I use variation in average class size within school-cohorts generated by a maximum class size rule of 28 students. Exploiting yearly enrollment changes that cause cohorts to move above and below the 28-student threshold, I find that increasing class size lowers students’ well-being and perceived school quality. The effects are particularly strong and sizeable for students’ perception of the learning environment. Chapter 2: Peer Effects on Well-Being and Performance in Elementary School With Isabel Skak Olufsen We study the effect of having resourceful peers on pupils’ well-being, absence rate, and academic performance in elementary school. To estimate the causal effect, we compare pupils in the same school who started school in different years and, consequently, were exposed to different shares of high socioeconomic status (SES) peers. Our study is made possible by a unique combination of administrative, survey, and test data on pupils in Danish public schools. We find that a higher share of high-SES peers increases wellbeing and performance, while the share of high-SES peers does not affect pupils’ absence rates. Low-SES pupils have greater performance gains than high-SES pupils, while the positive effect on well-being is constant across pupils’ SES. The effect is also larger for pupils whose parents do not cohabit and boys. Overall, our results show that high-SES peers positively affect the learning environment in elementary school. This implies that educational inequalities may increase due to the growing concentration of high-SES pupils in certain schools. Chapter 3: You Remind Me of My Child - The Impact of Parenting Daughters on Gender Difference in Teacher Assessments With Magnus Lindgaard Nielsen and Jeppe Søndergaard Johansen This paper assesses whether gender differences in teacher assessments are linked to teachers’ gender attitudes. Using Danish administrative data on 9th-grade students in public schools, we compute the difference between teacher-assigned grades and national exam grades in Danish and Math. We show that female students are assessed more favorably than male students in both subjects, reaffirming findings from other studies. Although male teachers generally grade more leniently, teacher sex does not affect the gender difference in assessments. Next, we examine whether the sex of a teacher’s firstborn child, a plausibly exogenous shock to gender attitudes, affects the gender difference in assessment. Our findings do not suggest that teachers’ gender attitudes affect student assessments. However, we are reluctant to make strong conclusions based on this analysis, as we ultimately cannot determine whether our empirical strategy captures a shift in gender attitudes. Thus, the documented gender difference in assessment could be related to both differences in student behavior and gender-biased behavior among teachers. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"STEG-CEPR workshop ";"STEG-CEPR workshop arranged by Department of Economics";"2024-12-12";"09:00";"2024-12-13";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"";"The workshop The workshop “Agriculture, Economic Growth, and Structural Transformation” will be held on 12-13. December 2024 at the University of Copenhagen (Denmark) and is planned as an in-person event. The overall theme of the workshop is the interaction between the agricultural sector and major trends in the global economy. The workshop calls for papers covering, but not limited to: Causes and (macroeconomic) consequences of agricultural innovation Effects of climate change and weather shocks on agriculture and the wider economy How changes in global demand for agricultural products affect land use, economic activity, and trade Misallocation of inputs in agriculture Structural transformation in developing countries Program You can see the program here: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:EU:a5f40d82-8ce9-49b1-a5c0-d9fe7d0fd1e6 "
"SODAS Lecture with Arthur Spirling";"SODAS";"2024-12-13";"11:00";"2024-12-13";"12:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"SODAS Lecture with Professor Arthur Spirling from Princeton University";"Title: Model Complexity for Supervised Learning: Why Simple Models Almost Always Work Best, And Why It Matters for Applied Research Abstract: Inspired by other fields, political scientists have embraced the use of supervised learning for prediction, inference, measurement and description. In doing so, they typically use flexible models of considerable complexity that have proved successful in non-social science settings. Yet there appear to be profound limits to the payoff of such approaches, at least relative to the alternative of using very simple (generalized linear) models for such tasks. We explain why this is, how to identify the problems for which this will be true, and what to do about it. We show that the intrinsic dimension of political science data is low, and this means returns to complexity are muted or non-existent. We provide a theory of “data curation” to explain this state of affairs. Our approach allows us to diagnose when simple models are optimal, and to provide advice for practitioners seeking to use machine learning. Arthur Spirling is the Class of 1987 Professor of Politics and the Director of Graduate Studies. He received a bachelor's and master's degree from the London School of Economics, and a master's degree and PhD from the University of Rochester. Previously, he served on the faculties of Harvard University and New York University. Spirling's research centers on quantitative methods for analyzing political behavior, especially institutional development and the use of text-as-data. His work on these subjects has appeared in outlets such as the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science and the Journal of the American Statistical Association. Currently he is active on problems at the intersection of data science and social science, including those related to machine learning, and large language models. He previously won teaching and mentoring awards at Harvard and NYU, along with the ""Emerging Scholar"" prize from the Society for Political Methodology."
"Christian Bartels Kastrup defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2024-12-17";"09:00";"2024-12-17";"11:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays on Trade, Business-Cycle Comovement, and Firms’ Production Structure.";"Candidate: Christian Bartels Kastrup, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays on Trade, Business-Cycle Comovement, and Firms’ Production Structure Supervisors: Søren Hove Ravn, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Jakob Roland Munch, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Morten G. Olsen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Texas Austin Frederic Warzynski, Visiting Professor, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU) Summary: This thesis contains three self-contained chapters with different research questions and methods, but all relate to international economics and business cycle macroeconomics. By improving our understanding of how foreign disturbances affect the Danish economy, the insights will hopefully help policy-makers and firms navigate environments where foreign disturbances are becoming more frequent. The thesis sheds light on how firm heterogeneity, in interaction with labor market rigidities, influences the transmission of foreign shocks and the comovement of business cycles. The main contributions of the first two chapters are to illustrate that firm heterogeneity dampens the average impact of foreign shocks but paradoxically amplifies the link between trade and business cycle comovement. The last chapter of this thesis shows the cruciality of taking non-linearities, such as fluctuations over the business cycle, of technical change into account when estimating how a firm’s production inputs are substituted. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Mathilde Godard, Paris Dauphine University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2024-12-17";"13:15";"2024-12-17";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26-2-21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Health Effects from Graduating in a Recession "". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Health Effects from Graduating in a Recession"" Abstract This paper analyzes the magnitude, dynamics, and sources of long-term health declines associated with graduating during a recession. Using linked register data on the entire cohort of 1990s Swedish graduates, we find that the cost of graduating in a recession is substantial and unequal. Mortality, hospitalization, and disability rates in the following decades are persistently higher for recession graduates, particularly among those with lower levels of education. We explore the roles of income, risky behaviors, mental stress, and marital status as potential mechanisms. With Mattias Engdahl, IFAU. For more information about Mathilde Godard and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Daphné Skandalis"
"Brigitte Hochmuth, University of Vienna (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-08";"10:30";"2025-01-08";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Labor Market Reforms in Open Economies: Current Account Dynamics and Consumer Heterogeneity"" Abstract This paper establishes a link between labor market reforms and an increase in the reforming country’s net foreign asset position via a precautionary savings channel. Specifically, we evaluate the current account effects of a major German labor market reform that reduced the generosity of unemployment benefits. Using a heterogeneous agent model of a small open economy with labor market frictions, we show that accounting for precautionary savings is qualitatively and quantitatively important for current account dynamics. In the first five years following its implementation, the reform contributed, on average, 13 percent to the dynamics of the German current account. Furthermore, welfare gains and losses are distributed unequally among agents. Compared to a closed economy, the reform is more detrimental. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Jessica Min, Princeton University  (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-09";"10:30";"2025-01-09";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Causes and Consequences of Rising Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance Costs: Evidence from Insurer Mergers"" Abstract U.S. employer-sponsored health insurance costs have quadrupled over the past four decades, placing a significant burden on employers. This paper asks how these rising costs impact U.S. labor markets. I exploit local differences in exposure to national health insurer mergers between 1999 and 2019. Using new administrative data and a difference-in-differences research design, I estimate that insurer mergers account for 22 percent of the overall cost increase in the past two decades. Firms facing higher costs experience employment losses, concentrated among middle-income workers without a college education. I calculate an estimated loss of 5.2 percent for less-educated workers. While some workers reallocate between firms, aggregate employment declines within merger-exposed markets. The resulting increase in unemployment raises government spending on unemployment insurance by 15 percent. Compared to Canada, where health insurance is government-funded, U.S. workers without a college education have experienced 3 percentage points more job losses than their Canadian counterparts over the past two decades. Incorporating my findings into a competitive labor market model, I show that rising health insurance costs explain 44 percent of this excess job loss. Contact person: Meltem Daysal"
"Anastasiia Antonova, Aix-Marseille University  (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-09";"13:30";"2025-01-09";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""State-dependent pricing and cost-push inflation in a production network economy"" Abstract Post-Covid inflation pressures call for quantifying the cost-push effect of large sectoral shocks within observed inflation. This paper examines how state-dependent pricing shapes cost-push inflation in a New-Keynesian Production Network model, extended with tractable state-dependent price rigidity varying with shock size. I find that state dependence is particularly strong in sectors with inherently higher price rigidity, affecting both the magnitude and direction of the cost-push effect, especially during crises. Overall, state dependence more than doubles the contribution of cost-push factors to observed inflation. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Martin Vaeth, Princeton University (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-10";"10:30";"2025-01-10";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"“Rational Voter Learning, Issue Alignment, and Polarization” Abstract We model electoral competition between two parties when voters can rationally learn about their political positions through flexible information acquisition. Rational voter learning generates polarized and aligned political preferences, even when voters’ true positions are unimodally distributed and independent across policy issues. When parties strategically select their positions to influence voter learning, voter and party polarization increase as information costs decline, and parties may adopt positions more extreme than their ideal policies. These results arise from two new forces introduced by endogenous voter learning: parties have an incentive to moderate to skew voter learning in their favor, and the more extreme party may diverge to trigger more voter learning and reduce the skew toward their opponent. We then adapt our model to a market setting with horizontally differentiated goods when consumers learn about their product preferences. Lower information costs increase product differentiation and moreover enable firms to charge higher markups, reducing consumer welfare. These results show how lower information costs can reduce welfare in both political and economic contexts. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Christopher Schang, European University Institute (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-14";"10:30";"2025-01-14";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Demographic Change, House Prices, and the Real Rate"" Abstract Aging populations, driven by low fertility rates and increasing longevity, are a defining trend in most advanced economies. This demographic shift has significant implications for asset prices, particularly housing, a primary asset for many households. This paper employs a general equilibrium model with housing and mortgage choice over the life-cycle and a construction sector to study the effects of demographic change on house prices. Calibrated to German microdata, I document the following: In line with past trends (1) demographic factors have contributed significantly to the long-term rise in housing prices. Notably, indirect general equilibrium effects, such as falling real rates, have played a substantial role. (2) Based on projected demographic trends, the model suggests that over the remainder of the 21st century, declining populations and rising old-age dependency ratios place downward pressure on real house prices while (3) the composition of wealth shifts from capital to housing wealth mitigating the drop in real rates. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Ratchanon (Brighton) Chotiputsilp, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-15";"10:30";"2025-01-15";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Subsidy, Shirking, and Strategy: Assessing the Effects of Consumption Subsidy on Worker Effort and Intervening Strategy"" Abstract I study how workers and managers in a firm respond to a temporary government consumption subsidy program. Using exogenous variation in eligibility criteria, I show that workers who become eligible for the program reduce their effort at work and shirk more. As a result, these workers earn less in performance-based pay, leading to a net decrease in their overall take-home pay. Additionally, I find that managers strategically intervene to mitigate the impact of diminished worker efforts on overall production efficiency. Managers reallocate more difficult tasks to non-shirking workers while assigning less demanding tasks to those who reduce their effort. In addition to task reallocation, managers also implement stricter disciplinary measures to address shirking behavior. This study highlights the potential unintended consequences of the consumption subsidy program on both worker and firm outcomes and underscores the importance of management in safeguarding productivity and efficiency in response to shocks. Contact person: Morten Bennedsen"
"Andrei Matveenko,University of Mannheim (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-16";"10:30";"2025-01-16";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Sequential search with flexible information"" Abstract We consider a model of sequential search in which an agent (the employer) has to choose one alternative (a candidate) from a finite set. A key feature of our model is that the employer is not restricted to specific forms of information acquisition, i.e., she is free to endogenously choose any interview for each candidate that arrives. Our main characterization result shows that the employer's unique optimal strategy is to offer a gradually easier interview to later candidates. Further, we study whether the candidates are treated equally in terms of the probability of being hired; we show that the discrimination created by the order of consideration depends crucially on the functional form of the learning cost. Finally, we characterize a wide range of cases where the employer prefers to start by interviewing ex ante worse candidates. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Christian Skov Jensen, Bocconi University (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-17";"10:30";"2025-01-17";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Cyclicality of Risk and Risk Premia"" Abstract We consider and reexamine the properties of the market risk premium and variance over the business cycle. While it is well known that the risk premium and variance both increase in recessions, we find that the risk premium is less strongly countercyclical than conditional variance. The ratio of risk premium to variance is therefore weakly procyclical, unlike the Sharpe ratio. We document this fact in a broad global equity sample using a range of methods to time portfolio formation after the onset of a recession. We also provide supporting evidence from option markets. We show that the ratio of risk premium to variance pins down the conditional beta in a regression of the stochastic discount factor on the market return, and its cyclicality helps explain stylized facts about the equity term structure. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Jana Gieselmann, Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-21";"10:30";"2025-01-21";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""(Mis-)Matchmaker"" Abstract As platforms collect more user data, they can tailor algorithms to better match users. At the same time, on matching platforms, users pay to be matched by the platform, while the platform makes money as long as it does not match them. This paper analyzes the matching rule of a profit-maximizing monopoly platform when the incentives between users and the platform are misaligned. Contrary to the intuition that more data about users might improve matching efficiency and speed, I show that more data allows the platform to design a matching rule that increases search time and distorts matching outcomes in the market. I demonstrate that frequently studied matching rules, such as random matching and positive assortative matching, can be suboptimal for the platform. Instead, the platform strategically lowers match quality to increase search time and thus profits, leading to unnecessary delays and potentially inefficient matches. Finally, I provide two explanations for why platforms adopt business models with misaligned incentives: targeted advertising and the presence of overconfident users. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Jinhong Wu, Copenhagen Business School (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-22";"10:30";"2025-01-22";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Climate Change and Bank Lending: Evidence from Physical and Transition Risks"" Abstract This study examines how firms’ exposure to climate-related physical and transition risks affects bank credit allocation. Using novel, granular measures for both risk types, merged with matched firm-bank data from Danish registers, I find that banks reduce credit growth to firms with higher physical and transition risks. A one standard deviation increases in each type of risk results in a 1%-2% reduction in loan growth, representing about an 8%-16% deviation from the mean. These effects are most pronounced for constrained firms (e.g., small or highly leveraged) and are concentrated within banks with high exposure to risk and repeat lending relationships. Additionally, the evidence suggests that more credit is allocated to risky but “greening” firms and firms with low combined physical and transition risks. Finally, the credit supply side is likely to play a more important role in the observed effect, partly due to banks’ credit risk concerns. Contact person: Morten Bennedsen"
"Astrid Ruland, European University Institute (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-22";"13:30";"2025-01-22";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Job Security over the Business Cycle"" Abstract Dual labour markets, characterised by the coexistence of fixed-term and open-ended contracts, are a distinctive feature of many European economies. This paper develops a directed search model with aggregate uncertainty and risk-averse workers, wherein firms compete for workers through both the wage and the job security they offer. Firms offering open-ended contracts can pay lower wages (all else equal) but sacrifice firing flexibility during downturns. During expansions, the wage-saving effect dominates the flexibility cost, leading firms to favour open-ended contracts; this twists the pool of active contracts towards open-ended ones (and vice versa during recessions) and inten- sifies overall job creation. Furthermore, when accounting for firm heterogeneity, the model shows that some firms strategically offer open-ended contracts to attract work- ers, even when the corresponding match values are lower. This creates a composition effect whereby workers self-select into more secure positions at high-productivity firms. I provide direct evidence of this form of labour-market competition between firms using Labour Force Survey data from four major European economies. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"Manuel Menkhoff, University of Munich (Jobmarket Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-23";"10:30";"2025-01-23";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Devil is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms"" Abstract This paper examines novel survey evidence on firms’ beliefs about macroeconomic tail risk and their role in investment decisions. In a large survey of German firms, I elicit (i) the subjective probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn and (ii) firms’ exposure to such an event. I consistently find across different empirical approaches that a higher probability of a severe macroeconomic downturn substantially lowers investment, particularly for firms that report higher exposure to the event. I attribute less than half of the investment response to changes in firms’ subjective first and second moments. In a quantitative heterogeneous firm model calibrated to match the survey evidence, firms’ concern with tail risk makes fiscal policy particularly effective for stabilizing investment. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Ion Lucas Saru, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-24";"10:30";"2025-01-24";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Cross-Section of Price Efficiency"" Abstract Inventory management by market makers can result in quoted prices deviating from unobserved fundamental prices. In a setting where prices have a factor structure, optimal inventory management implies that pricing errors of different securities are positively correlated if they load on the same risk factors. Using a state space model, I obtain estimates of 1-minute pricing errors for a panel of 1500 US stocks for the period 2016–2022. Daily cross-sectional regressions of pricing error correlations reveal that pricing error correlations increase in the similarity of factor betas. Investigating the role of liquidity demand in addition to liquidity supply, my results show that ETF flows are associated with higher pricing error correlations. Contact person: Anders Rahbek"
"Matthias Emmanuel Hänsel, Stockholm School of Economics (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-27";"10:30";"2025-01-27";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Idiosyncratic Risk, Government Debt and Inflation"" Abstract How does public debt matter for price stability? When the private sector holds it to insure against idiosyncratic risk, even temporarily higher government debt can exert upward pressure on interest rates and generate inflation. As I demonstrate analytically, the result holds under an active Taylor rule and does not require the absence of future fiscal consolidation. A quantitative 2-asset HANK model furthermore reveals that the magnitude of the inflation impact depends on the structure of the asset market: In order to match relevant evidence regarding the relationship between public debt and treasury returns, the markets for liquid and illiquid assets can neither be entirely segmented nor entirely integrated. The model suggests that in the US, public debt itself played a modest role in producing the inflation peak in 2022, but is crucial to inflation remaining elevated thereafter. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Takuma Habu, University of Chicago (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-27";"13:30";"2025-01-27";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Hiding Lemons among Peaches: Optimal Retention and Promotion Policy Design"" Abstract How should an employer design its retention and promotion policy when there is competition for its employees? In an environment where the incumbent employer learns more about its workers than other potential employers, we show that the incumbent’s optimal policy always over-retains workers—retaining workers that it would have let go if all employers had learnt about workers symmetrically—to dampen the positive signalling effect of retention. In contrast, the optimal policy may over- or under-promote workers. The incumbent’s incentive to distort its policy is driven by the technologies of competing firms in the labour market. We demonstrate the extent to which the firm can implement the optimal policy without the ability to commit and study the incentive for the firm to manipulate the signalling effect via designing jobs. Our results shed light on the role of (possibly vacuous) job titles and provide a novel rationale for the Peter Principle. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Alessia Menichetti, Stockholm School of Economics (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-28";"10:30";"2025-01-28";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Correlation neglect, information concentration, and financial markets"" Abstract Motivated by the widespread repetition of information in online media, this paper develops an asset pricing model in which agents receive information containing common noise but fail to recognize the correlation between their own signals and those of others. This misperception leads to heightened trading aggressiveness on new information, price overreactions, and increased price informativeness. The model consistently predicts excess trading volumes and return reversals, and may also account for excess volatility. By categorizing agents into belief groups based on shared group-level noise, the analysis links the severity of the foregone correlation adjustment to the quantity of original information, with the bias disappearing as the repetition of information approaches zero. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen"
"Leanne Nam, University of Bonn (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2025-01-29";"10:30";"2025-01-29";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Job Market Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Intergenerational Spillovers: The Impact of Labor Market Risk on the Housing Market"" Abstract Unemployment leads to large and persistent income losses for workers. Higher unemployment in the labor market therefore has spillover effects on the housing market. This paper studies such spillover effects from both empirical and theoretical perspectives. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), I show that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 1.55% decline in housing prices. Theoretically, I develop an overlapping generations model with a housing market. The calibrated model replicates the empirically observed spillover effect for the U.S. economy. Higher income uncertainty is the main driver of the spillover effect, rather than actual income losses. The spillover effect transmits one-third of the welfare losses of workers due to higher unemployment in the labor market to older, retired households by reducing their housing wealth. Younger workers benefit in part by buying houses at depressed prices. The magnitude of the spillover effect is shaped by the demographic structure of the population and the specific age groups affected by unemployment shocks. I find that increasing the generosity of unemployment insurance stabilizes the housing market, although it only partially mitigates the spillover effect. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Mogens Fosgerau, University of Copenhagen";"Environmental Economics Group";"2025-02-03";"12:00";"2025-02-03";"13:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.3.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Behavior and Welfare of Moral Consumers"". Environmental Economics Group seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Behavior and Welfare of Moral Consumers"" Abstract We consider consumers with homo moralis preferences (Alger & Weibull, 2016) deciding whether to buy a potentially dirty good. We examine the consequences of morality for the consumption and optimal taxation of the dirty good."
"Pablo Ottonello, University of Maryland";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-02-03";"14:15";"2025-02-03";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""Capital, Ideas, and the Costs of Financial Frictions"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Capital, Ideas, and the Costs of Financial Frictions"" Abstract We study the role of financial frictions in determining the allocation of investment and innovation. Empirically, we find that established firms are investment-intensive when they have low net worth but become innovation-intensive as they accumulate net worth. To interpret these findings, we develop an endogenous growth model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions. In our model, firms are investment-intensive when they have low net worth because their returns to capital are high. Financial frictions determine the rate at which firms drive down the returns to capital and shift towards innovation. Quantitatively, the aggregate losses due to lower innovation are large, even though the allocation of capital to existing ideas is comparatively efficient. If innovation has positive spillovers, a planner would lower investment among constrained firms to finance more innovation. An innovation subsidy does not generate the correct distribution of investment and innovation to exactly decentralize this outcome. For more information about Pablo Ottonello and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Christina Gravert,University of Copenhagen";"Environmental Economics Group";"2025-02-17";"13:00";"2025-02-17";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Carbon taxes crowd out climate concern: Experimental evidence from sustainable consumer choices"". Environmental Economics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Carbon taxes crowd out climate concern: Experimental evidence from sustainable consumer choices"" Abstract We examine the impact of a carbon tax on consumer choices via a large-scale online randomized controlled trial. Higher taxes generally reduce the demand for high-carbon goods. Compared to an import tax, a carbon tax reduces demand when the tax is zero (i.e., announced but not levied) but shows relatively higher demand for high-carbon goods when a positive tax is introduced. This contradiction of basic price theory is entirely driven by climate-concerned consumers. Our findings suggest that carbon taxes can crowd out climate concerns, leading to important implications for policy."
"Jean-Robert Tyran, UCPH and University of Vienna";"Department of Economics";"2025-02-18";"13:30";"2025-02-18";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Sorting Fact from Fiction when Reasoning is Motivated"". Department seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Sorting Fact from Fiction when Reasoning is Motivated"" Abstract How is sorting fact from fiction and updating after fact-checking shaped by motivated reasoning, cognitive ability, and overconfidence? We present subjects in an online experiment with news items on immigration, inequality, climate change and science that (to the best of our knowledge) are true or false. As predicted by our model, we find that motivated reasoning reduces acknowledging “inconvenient truths” (i.e., news that are counter to one’s identity), while cognitive ability promotes it. Motivated reasoning and overconfidence limit updating after fact checking (i.e. subjects receive informative but noisy signals about the veracity of the news), cognitive ability promotes updating. Surprisingly, higher cognitive ability is negatively related to accuracy in news discernment and updating in news on science and (to a lesser degree) on climate change. The reason seems to be that those with higher cognitive ability are more motivated to believe that anti-science and anti-climate change news are false. Joint with Edoardo Cefalà, Melis Kartal and Sylvia Kritzinger"
"SODAS Data Discussion 1 (Spring 2025)";"SODAS";"2025-02-21";"11:15";"2025-02-21";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Paw Randrup and Yevgeniy Golovchenko for our SODAS Data Discussions spring 2025 series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Paw Randrup Title: Exploring the Phenomenology of Psychedelic Experiences with AI Abstract: Intro: Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), may have great potential in analysing qualitative research data. This study examines the feasibility of an LLM performing Reflexive Thematic Analysis (RTA) and its ability to replicate findings from a dataset previously analyzed by human researchers. Methods: The original dataset consisted of transcribed, semi-structured interviews from 20 participants who completed a Guided Music and Visualization Exercise (GMVA) before a clinical psilocybin session. The study aimed to explore the GMVA’s effectiveness as a preparatory tool, and applied Braun and Clarke’s (2006) six-phase RTA to identify explicit and latent patterns of meaning in the data. This study evaluates whether a LLM can replicate the findings of the original analysis by applying the same six-phase RTA framework to synthetic data designed to mirror the original dataset. The LLM’s thematic outputs are compared to those of human analysts, with particular attention to how each phase of RTA is operationalized from an LLM perspective. The proprietary model used was ChatGPT-4 Mini (OpenAI). Results: Findings suggest that LLMs can infer key themes, demonstrating the potential viability of AI-assisted RTA. However, LLMs’ reliance on probabilistic structures rather than human intuition and contextual depth presents notable limitations. Conclusion: By exploring this emerging methodology, this study provides preliminary insights into the integration of LLMs into qualitative research workflows and reflects on their potential to complement, rather than replace, human analysis. Discussion 2 Presenter: Yevgeniy Golovchenko Title: Sanction Evasion and Covert Maritime Networks Abstract: In the past decade, a global “shadow fleet” of vessels has emerged to evade sanctions, violating international maritime laws and supporting smuggling activities that fund wars, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These fleets, often non-compliant with safety regulations and pose significant environmental risks. Despite these threats, shadow shipping remains understudied. This project conducts a systematic analysis of shadow fleet operations, using geospatial vessel tracking data to build a global oil tanker dataset. Focusing on Russia, which has constructed the largest shadow fleet to bypass EU and G7 sanctions, the study employs social data science methods to explore maritime sanctions evasion strategies. By bridging social data science methods and maritime security studies, the research fills a critical knowledge gap and demonstrates how ship tracking data can enhance social science methodologies for analyzing illicit maritime networks."
"Eugenia Gonzalez-Aguado, Toulouse School of Economics";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-03-10";"14:15";"2025-03-10";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Career Mobility in Dual Labor Markets”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Career Mobility in Dual Labor Markets"" Abstract Many economies feature the co-existence of labor market contracts with different degrees of employment protection. We study how such duality affects the career mobility of workers in a labor market that is segmented along the occupation margin. Specifically, we develop a quantitative theory that sheds light on how duality affects aggregate productivity and unemployment through the channel of career mobility. The mechanism works through the equilibrium distribution of occupational tenure, which is endogenous to the labor market institutions, and which affects aggregate human capital. We explore various policy counterfactuals that address duality in a version of the model calibrated to Spanish labor market outcomes. We find that a policy reform that replaces duality by a unitary contract with lower employment protection can increase aggregate productivity through an increase of occupational mobility of unemployed workers. The sluggish reaction of the frictional labor market implies that along the transition induced by the reform, unemployment is increased in the short run. Joint with C. Busch, I. Galvez-Iniesta, and L. Visschers. For more information about Eugenia Gonzalez-Aguado and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: John Vincent Kramer"
"Marcelo C. Medeiros, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-03-13";"15:15";"2025-03-13";"16:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 35.0.12), 1353 Kbh K";"""Cost-aware Portfolios in a Large Universe of Assets"". Seminar arranged by ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Cost-aware Portfolios in a Large Universe of Assets"" Abstract This paper considers the finite horizon portfolio rebalancing problem in terms of mean-variance optimisation, where decisions are made based on current information on asset returns and transaction costs. The study's novelty is that the transaction costs are integrated within the optimisation problem in a high-dimensional portfolio setting where the number of assets is larger than the sample size. We propose portfolio construction and rebalancing models with non-convex penalty considering two types of transaction cost, the proportional transaction cost and the quadratic transaction cost. We establish the desired theoretical properties under mild regularity conditions. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical studies using S&P 500 and Russell 2000 stocks show the satisfactory performance of the proposed portfolio and highlight the importance of involving the transaction costs when rebalancing a portfolio. (Joint with Qingliang Fan, Hanming Yang, and Songshan Yang). Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen."
"Francesco Furlanetto, Norges Bank";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-03-17";"14:15";"2025-03-17";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“A TALE OF PROCYCLICAL INEQUALITY: FACTS AND IMPLICATIONS”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""A tale of procyclical inequality: fact and implications"" Abstract We analyze the level, the trend, and the cyclical patterns of consumption and income inequality in Norway, a modern welfare state. To achieve this, we utilize a panel dataset of card transactions and administrative income data, encompassing the entire population of Norwegian households from 2006 to 2018. Contrary to the increased inequality observed in the U.S., we find that both consumption and income inequality in Norway have remained relatively stable over time, albeit with considerable mobility within the distributions. Moreover, while pre-tax and transfer inequality appears largely disconnected from the business cycle in our data, we identify a pronounced pro-cyclical pattern in the inequality across households related to consumption and disposable income. This pro-cyclicality is evident both unconditionally and in response to major business cycle shocks. Finally, we show that the right tails of the income and consumption distributions exhibit excess cyclical sensitivity, while households in the lower percentiles remain relatively insulated from macroeconomic fluctuations. Interpreted through the lenses of heterogeneous agent models, the pro-cyclicality of inequality may explain why the Norwegian economy has been rather unaffected by economic recessions in recent decades: redistribution to low-income households with high MPC dampens the effects of recessionary shocks, thereby limiting their transmission to the aggregate economy. Consequently, our findings offer new evidence on the role of distributional policies, as well as important implications for models with household heterogeneity. Joint with Drago Bergholt and Lorenzo Mori. For more information about Francesco Furlanetto and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"SODAS Lecture with Kevin Munger";"SODAS";"2025-03-21";"11:00";"2025-03-21";"12:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"SODAS Lecture on the effects of TikTok on the evaluation of politicians with Kevin Munger.";"Title: Thirst Traps and Quick Cuts: The Effects of TikTok “Edits"" on Evaluations of Politicians Abstract: TikTok and the associated technologies for recording and editing short-form video constitute a large and growing portion of online communication. Previous modalities of social media, including static images and especially text, engendered significant attention to the facticity of the communication: was a statement true or false? Did an event actually take place? For a certain genre of stylized, highly edited short-form video, this is besides the point -- which is to produce a compelling video that portrays a prominent figure in a particular light. We conduct an experiment to evaluate whether “edits” of prominent politicians can change voter perceptions. We find that “thirst trap” edits cause an increase in perceptions of politician attractiveness, and that “badass” edits improve overall evaluations of Donald Trump (but not Joe Biden). Descriptively, we present a distribution of the evaluations of the attractiveness of Trump, Biden, Bernie Sanders and Robert F. Kennedy Jr, demonstrating significant variation."
"Lasse Heje Pedersen, Copenhagen Business School";"Environmental Economics Group";"2025-03-24";"13:00";"2025-03-24";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Carbon Pricing versus Green Finance"". Environmental Economics Group seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Carbon Pricing versus Green Finance"" Abstract Economics recommends combating climate change with carbon pricing, but green finance - such as ESG investing and sustainable finance regulations - is becoming widespread. In a unified model, I show how to ""translate"" a carbon tax into green finance terms and present the following results. First, if carbon prices equal their social cost, green finance should not be used. Second, with too low carbon prices, green finance can implement the social optimum if and only if the cost of capital can be controlled and there are no stranded assets - but the calibrated cost-of-capital adjustments appear unattainable and stranded assets do exist. Third, I show how green finance depends on direct and indirect emissions."
"SODAS Data Discussion 2 (Spring 2025)";"SODAS";"2025-03-28";"11:15";"2025-03-28";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Aaron Pope and Claudia Acciai for the Spring 2025 Data Discussions series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Aaron Pope Title: How TikTok Affects Users' Beliefs Abstract: TikTok has evolved from an entertainment platform to a major source of political content, with over half of U.S. users relying on it for news. However, there is limited research on how TikTok shapes political beliefs. In this Data Discussion, I will outline a randomized experiment, planned in collaboration with Pia Deshpande (University of California, Berkeley), that will examine the effects of a 4-week TikTok deactivation on users' political views and knowledge. A unique aspect of our study is the collection of participants’ TikTok watch history data, which will allow us to measure baseline content consumption. In this talk, I’ll provide an overview of the project and share some insights we expect to gain from integrating the collection of users' watch history. Discussion 2 Presenter: Claudia Acciai Title: Testing the Prevalence of AI in Science Abstract: Advances in Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI), have sparked a revolution in science, providing researchers with unprecedented computational power and opening new prospects for progress. While scientists have used AI for decades, the rapid advancement of GenAI has significantly accelerated its adoption. Yet, little is known about the extent to which scientists are actually using these models, the factors influencing their adoption, and whether self-reporting GenAI use is perceived as a threat to self-image and professional representation. This ambiguity raises important questions about what is considered socially acceptable within scientific communities. When norms are unclear, as with the emerging use of GenAI, researchers may be unsure about what constitutes appropriate usage. This uncertainty can contribute to social desirability bias, where scientists adjust their reported use to align with perceived professional or ethical expectations. Consequently, traditional survey methods may fail to capture the true extent of GenAI adoption, potentially overstating, or understating, its usage. To address these challenges, we are conducting a survey with three distinct panels of scientists, utilizing advanced techniques – including list experiments and vignettes – to enhance the reliability of self-reported data. By examining how social norms and perceptions of acceptability influence reported use, our study aims to quantify the prevalence of GenAI in science and shed light on the social dynamics shaping its acceptance."
"Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, Aarhus BSS ";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-03-28";"13:15";"2025-03-28";"14:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Improved Inference for Nonparametric Regression and Regression-Discontinuity Designs"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Improved Inference for Nonparametric Regression and Regression-Discontinuity Designs"" Abstract The presence of asymptotic bias complicates inference in nonparametric regression and hence in regression-discontinuity designs (RDD). Nonetheless, RDD remains an extremely relevant and important tool in empirical analysis in many fields. Extant solutions to the problem include undersmoothing, which is inefficient, and debiasing methods. The latter includes the current state-of-the-art, which is the well-known and widely applied robust bias corrected (RBC) confidence interval of Calonico et al. (2014). We show that the RBC interval is equivalent to a prepivoted bootstrap interval based on an invalid residual-based bootstrap method. Specifically, prepivoting performs an implicit bias correction while adjusting the nonparametric regression estimator’s standard error to account for the additional uncertainty introduced by debiasing. We also show how these (prepivoted bootstrap based) intervals can be implemented in a manner similar to RBC without the need for resampling. This idea can be applied also to other bootstrap schemes which leads to other implicit bias corrections and corresponding standard error adjustments. In particular, we consider prepivoting a bootstrap method that generates observations using a fixed-regressor approach derived from nonparametric regression estimates at each regressor value, and we show that for MSE-optimal bandwidths, it has 17% shorter interval length compared to the RBC interval while maintaining accurate coverage probability. These results extend to inference based on local polynomial estimators evaluated at both interior or boundary points, thus encompassing empirically relevant RDD. Joint with Giuseppe Cavaliere, Silvia Goncalves og Edoardo Zanelli Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard Sørensen"
"Joschka Wanner, University of Würzburg ";"Environmental Economics Group";"2025-03-31";"13:00";"2025-03-31";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""New Trade Models, Same Old Emissions?"". Environmental Economics Group seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""New Trade Models, Same Old Emissions?"" Abstract This paper investigates the role of firm heterogeneity in environmentally extended new trade models, contrasting Eaton-Kortum and Melitz models to Armington and Krugman models. We show that when emissions per sales are constant across firms – a standard assumption in the literature – all four models predict identical emission responses. However, when emissions per quantity are constant across firms, this equivalence breaks. We propose a generalized framework that nests both assumptions. Calibrating the model with multiple industries and estimating the key elasticity between emission intensity and productivity using German firm-level data, we find that firm heterogeneity considerably raises emissions from trade liberalization. Authors: Robin Sogalla, Joschka Wanner, and Yuta Watabe Contact person: Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen"
"Fabrizio Zilibotti, Yale Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-04-07";"14:15";"2025-04-07";"15:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""A Theory of Endogenous Degrowth and Environmental Sustainability"". Department seminar.";"""A Theory of Endogenous Degrowth and Environmental Sustainability"" Abstract We develop and quantify a growth theory where consumers’ preferences are defined over products with varying environmental impacts. Preferences are non- homothetic: Necessities are intensive in material inputs whose production leads to high emissions, while luxury goods, being more reliant on services, exhibit a comparatively lower environmental footprint. Directed innovation is the focal point of the study: it can be aimed at either enhancing the productivity of material production or refining the quality of luxury goods. Over time, innovation increasingly prioritizes quality improvement, consequently reducing the environmental impact of economic growth. The pace of structural transformation and the composition of GDP are both endogenous and susceptible to policy interventions. The shift towards quality-oriented growth may result in a decline in (mis)measured GDP growth without a decrease in welfare. Extending the model to a two-country trade scenario reveals that trade barriers could have a detrimental effect on environmental sustainability. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"LLM's unintended memories";"SODAS";"2025-04-08";"15:00";"2025-04-08";"16:00";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"Join us for a talk by Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye on the unintended memories of LLM's on April 8!";"Speaker: Yves-Alexandre de Montjoye Title: LLM's unintended memories Abstract: A year ago, ChatGPT surprised the world with its extraordinary language generation capabilities. Chatbots have since become of the fastest adopted consumer product in history with investments in genAI forecasted to reach $12B this year. In this talk, I will first review the fast-evolvingliterature on the document-level membership inference task for LLMs: the methods proposed to detect--a posteriori--whether a specific piece of text was seen during training by an LLM and at least partially memorized, the distribution shift concerns, and some of the solutions proposed. I will then discuss the use of randomized controlled setups to causally study LLM memorization. In particular, Iwill discuss how randomized controlled setup have shed lights on the determinant of memorization and showed LLMs to have a mosaic memory. I will conclude the talks with same thoughts on the security and privacy challenges ahead when it comes to LLMs and the use of synthetically generated trap sequences for membership inference."
"SODAS Data Discussion 3 (Spring 2025)";"SODAS";"2025-04-25";"11:15";"2025-04-25";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Louis Boucherie for the Spring 2025 Data Discussions series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Louis Boucherie Title: The Colors of Fashion Abstract: The fashion industry, a significant economic engine and cultural force, constantly evolves, reflecting broader societal shifts and technological progress. This talk presents a large-scale computational analysis exploring the dynamics of fashion trends over time. Leveraging a dataset of one million runway looks spanning from 1988 to 2025, we employ computer vision and natural language processing techniques to decompose designs into granular style elements or 'topics'. By analyzing the distribution, diversity (using metrics like Richness and Shannon Entropy), and novelty of these topics across collections and decades, we track how trends emerge, propagate, and fade. Our findings reveal patterns of innovation and influence, mapping the cultural evolution of fashion at both the brand and industry levels and identifying key drivers of stylistic change."
"Yucheng Yang, University of Zurich";"Department of Economics";"2025-04-28";"14:15";"2025-04-28";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Deep Learning for Search and Matching Models”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Deep Learning for Search and Matching Models"" Abstract We develop a new method to globally solve and estimate search and matching models with aggregate shocks and heterogeneous agents. We characterize general equilibrium as a high-dimensional partial differential equation with the distribution as a state variable. We then use deep learning to solve the model and estimate economic parameters using the simulated method of moments. This allows us to study a wide class of search markets where the distribution affects agent decisions and compute variables (e.g. wages and prices) that were previously unattainable. In applications to labor search models, we show that distribution feedback plays an important role in amplification and that positive assortative matching weakens in prolonged expansions, disproportionately benefiting low-wage workers. For more information about Yucheng Yang and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"SODAS Lecture with Joana Gonçalves de Sá";"SODAS";"2025-05-02";"11:00";"2025-05-02";"12:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"SODAS Lecture with Joana Gonçalves de Sá.";"Title: Machine Learning as a magnifying glass to study society Abstract: Machine Learning Algorithms (MLAs) are trained on vast amounts of data and work by learning patterns and finding non-linear and often black box mathematical relations between that data. As most human-related data carries biases, these models will also be biased. Therefore, a fundamental question is how do we identify these biases and ensure MLAs do not perpetuate or even amplify prejudice? So far, the standard approach has been deductive: listing known biases (e.g. racism), then searching for them in data or models. This assumes all biases are known, identifiable, and “debias able”. But no universal list exists, new biases emerge, and researcher perspectives can even influence de debiasing processes. Therefore, we must develop inductive systems to uncover and minimize these hidden biases. The talk will have two parts. First, I will describe a systematic experimental audit of search engine results. We developed a system of stateful webcrawlers (bots) that can mimic user browsing (controlling language, location, visited websites, collected tracking data, etc). These customized bots can then be directed to different search-engines, in different countries, and make the exact same queries, simultaneously. By analyzing differences in search-engine and LLM chatbot recommendations, we can identify algorithmic customization. I will present results from audits performed in the weeks prior to the 2024 EU Parliamentary and US Presidential elections and discuss how the identified differences can influence voting preferences and even lead to polarization. Second, I will explore how we can leverage MLAs to discover novel biases. Since MLAs efficiently learn known prejudices, we should be able to reverse the process, developing bottom-up tools that reveal latent, unknown biases. This project is in its early stages, and I would welcome community feedback. Bio: Joana Gonçalves de Sá is a researcher at LIP, where she coordinates the Social Physics and Complexity (SPAC) research group. Since 2025, she is also an Invited Associate Professor at NOVA LINCS and External Faculty at the Complexity Sciences Hub, in Vienna. She has a degree in Physics Engineering from Instituto Superior Técnico – University of Lisbon, and a PhD in Systems Biology from NOVA – ITQB, having developed her thesis at Harvard University, USA. Her current research uses data analytics and machine learning to study complex problems at the interface between Biomedicine, Social Sciences, and Computation, with a large ethical and societal focus. From 2018 to 2020, she was an Associated Professor at Nova School of Business and Economics and, before that, a Principal Investigator at Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, where she also coordinated the Science for Society Initiative and was the founder and Director of the Graduate Program Science for Development (PGCD), aiming at improving scientific research in Africa. She received two ERC grants (Stg_2019 and PoC_2022) to study human and algorithmic biases using fake news as a model system. Photo: Tiago Miranda"
"Dean Yang, University of Michigan";"Department of Economics";"2025-05-09";"13:00";"2025-05-09";"14:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Ancient Epics in the Television Age: Mass Media, Identity, and the Rise of Hindu Nationalism in India"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Ancient Epics in the Television Age: Mass Media, Identity, and the Rise of Hindu Nationalism in India"" This study examines the long-term social and political impacts of mass media exposure to religious content in India. We study the impact of “Ramayan,” the massively popular adaptation of the Hindu epic televised in 1987-88. To identify causal effects, we conduct difference-in-difference analyses and exploit variation in TV signal strength driven by location of TV transmitters and topographical features inhibiting electromagnetic TV signal propagation. We find that areas with higher exposure to Ramayan (higher TV signal strength when the show aired) experienced significant cultural and political changes. First, we document a strengthening of religious identity among Hindus: parents in these areas became more likely to give their newborn sons traditionally Hindu names, and households showed increased adherence to orthodox Hindu dietary practices. In the short term, this cultural shift led to an increase in Hindu-Muslim communal violence through 1992. Over the longer term, through 2000, the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) became more likely to win state assembly elections. Analyses of changes in local TV signal strength in India over decades indicate that these effects are not due to general access to TV but are due to exposure to the Ramayan TV show in 1987-1988. Our findings reveal that media portrayal of religious narratives can have lasting effects on cultural identity, intergroup violence, and electoral outcomes. Contact person: Neda Trifkovic"
"Ken Bechmann, CBS";"Environmental Economics Group";"2025-05-12";"13:00";"2025-05-12";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Role of ESG-Related KPIs in Top Management Compensation"". Environmental Economics Group seminar.";"""The Role of ESG-Related KPIs in Top Management Compensation"" Contact person: Rasmus Kehlet Skjødt Berg"
"Hjalte Fejerskov Boas defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-05-16";"13:00";"2025-05-16";"15:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Tax Enforcement in a Globalized World.";"Candidate: Hjalte Fejerskov Boas, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Tax Enforcement in a Globalized World Supervisors: Niels Johannesen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Peter Birch Sørensen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Arun Advani, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Warwick Michael Keen, Ushioda Fellow at Tokyo College, University of Tokyo Summary: Tax evasion presents a persistent challenge for governments in an interconnected and increasingly digitized economy. My thesis explores how policy interventions and international cooperation shape tax compliance, with a focus on offshore wealth and emerging digital assets. By analyzing large-scale administrative data, the papers assess the impact of third-party information on tax compliance of global income. The findings highlight both the potential and limitations of international cooperation in curbing evasion, offering new insights into the challenges of tax enforcement in a globalized world. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Workshop: International &#8211; Macro People of Copenhagen (I-MPC) 2025";"";"2025-05-16";"14:30";"2025-05-16";"18:00";"University of Copenhagen, Øster Farimagsgade 5, Room 35.2.01, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"Macroeconomics Workshop, arranged by Department of Economics";"Program 14:30 - 14:45 - Welcome 14:45 - 15:45 - Kenza Benhina (University of Lausanne): Foreign Exchange Intervention with UIP and CIP Deviations 15:45 - 16:00 - Coffee break 16:00 - 17:00 - Christian Hellwig (Toulouse School of Economics): Consumption, Wealth, and Income Inequality: A Tale of Tails 17:00 - 17:45 - Drinks and snacks 18:00 - Dinner (by invitation) Questions, please contact Jeppe Druedahl on jeppe.druedahl@econ.ku.dk"
"Christian Moser, Columbia Business School ";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-05-20";"13:15";"2025-05-20";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences"" Abstract Using linked employer-employee data from Brazil, we document a large gender pay gap due to women working at lower-paying employers. To interpret this fact, we develop an equilibrium search model with endogenous firm pay, amenities, and hiring. We provide a constructive proof of identification of all model parameters. The estimated model suggests that amenities are important for both men and women and that compensating differentials explain half of the gender pay gap. Equal-treatment policies partly close gender gaps but are not output- or welfare-improving. For more information about Christian Moser and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Robert Mahlstedt "
"Boris Vallée, Harvard Business School";"Environmental Economics Group";"2025-05-22";"13:00";"2025-05-22";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""One Fish, Two Fish: Market Design for Environmental Sustainability"". Environmental Economics Group seminar";"""One Fish, Two Fish: Market Design for Environmental Sustainability"" Abstract We study how the design of contractual rights to exploit natural resources affects biodiversity preservation, using quota rights in the Northern Atlantic Fishery as a laboratory. Our identification strategy exploits regulatory heterogeneity in the strength of commercial fishing quota rights and uses granular data on fishing vessels, catches, and species population. We find that stronger property rights are associated with a decrease in both fish populations and annual fish landings. These effects are especially pronounced for groundfish. This ecological impact appears to be driven by a change in the production function of commercial fishing when property rights are strong. Stronger property rights result in a higher intensity of large-scale trawling, a fishing technique known for its large and negative environmental externalities. Contact person: Rasmus Kehlet Skjødt Berg"
"SODAS Data Discussion 4 (Spring 2025)";"SODAS";"2025-05-23";"11:15";"2025-05-23";"12:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Ting Xiao and Valdemar Osted for the Spring 2025 Data Discussions series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Ting Xiao Title: Task division and authorship credit in North-South medical research collaborations Abstract: Global North-South disparities persist in science, yet our understanding of the mechanisms sustaining them remain limited. Focusing on North-South research partnerships, this study examines how the division of labour within medical research teams contributes to these disparities. We harvested article metadata from PLOS ONE alongside CRediT contributorship data, and then applied a new TF-IDF-based method to account for variation in the prevalence and distribution of contributor roles across authors. In linear probability models, adjusting for authors’ prior publication output and impact, gender, scientific age, medical specialisation and TF-IDF adjusted contributor roles, we find that GS researchers are more likely to assume first authorships but have substantially lower representation in last and corresponding authorships compared to their GN team-mates. Subgroup analyses reveal that this regional disadvantage is most pronounced for researchers from Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, while those from East and South Asia are underrepresented in all lead-authorship roles, including also first authorships. This pattern also holds across national income levels, with clear disparities observed between researchers from lower- and higher-income countries. We also find that while leadership roles generally increase the likelihood of assuming first-, last- or corresponding authorships, GS scientists with such roles remain less likely to obtain last authorships. These findings expose a consistent misalignment between contributions and authorship positions in North-South collaborations and highlight the need for experimental research to clarify the causal pathways through which these imbalances arise. Discussion 2 Presenter: Valdemar Osted Title: Making sense of social media data: Lessons from Common Consultancy Abstract: Valdemar from Common Consultancy shares hands-on experiences from working with large-scale social media data in a private sector setting. The talk gives a look into how social media data is processed, structured, and turned into insights for clients - with concrete examples of how social media data becomes actionable in everyday consultancy work."
"Jessica Coria, AU";"Environmental Economics Group";"2025-05-26";"13:00";"2025-05-26";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Environmental Regulation Informed by Biased Stakeholders"". Environmental Economics Group seminar";"""Environmental Regulation Informed by Biased Stakeholders"" Abstract Public consultations are widely used in regulatory processes, allowing stakeholders to present their viewpoints despite their inherent biases. Some stakeholders, such as firms, are known to be pro-business, while others, such as environmental NGOs, are pro-environment. We develop a framework to analyze how a regulator should process information provided by biased stakeholders. We distinguish between stakeholders whose biases are high and known and those whose biases are small but unknown, such as national authorities. We show that the regulator should follow the advice that runs counter to a stakeholder’s typical bias, i.e., to regulate if firms so advise, and not to regulate if environmental organizations so advise. Without such advice, she should prioritize the comments provided by stakeholders with smaller but unknown bias. Next, we contrast our theoretical results with the regulation of chemicals in the European Union. In line with our theory, we find that support for regulation has a strong and significant impact on the decision to regulate when the support comes from firms but not when it comes from NGOs and environmental agencies. We also find that national authorities have a stronger influence than other stakeholders in the regulation decision, both by the number of comments and the relative support. Contact person: Rasmus Kehlet Skjødt Berg"
"Christian Philip Hoeck defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-05-27";"14:00";"2025-05-27";"16:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Firm-Level Wage and Price Setting.";"Candidate: Christian Philip Hoeck , Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Firm-Level Wage and Price Setting Supervisors: Daniel le Maire, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Søren Hove Ravn, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Ana Rute Cardoso, Associate Research Professor, Institute for Economic Analysis, Spanish National Research Council Jonathon Hazell, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, London School of Economics Summary: In this dissertation, I investigate how firms set their wages and prices and the economic incentives that drive these decisions. The firm is the fundamental unit of the economy, where labor and capital meet to produce a valuable good or service. The prices and wages offered by firms are critical in deciding what and how much is produced and who gets to consume it. Naturally, the wage- and price-setting behavior of firms has always been a core topic in economics. With the advent of modern administrative data, new ways of illuminating this topic have opened up, and this dissertation follows that trend. While each chapter draws heavily on economic theory, they are fundamentally empirical. This dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters examining differences in wage growth across firms, firms’ beliefs about wages, and how firms change their prices in response to changes in demand. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"SODAS Lecture with Ioana Sendroiu";"SODAS";"2025-05-30";"11:00";"2025-05-30";"12:30";"SODAS Conference Room - 1.1.12, Øster-Farimagsgade 5.";"SODAS Lecture with Ioana Sendroiu.";"Title: Making a market to save the planet: An extended computational case study of a one-billion-dollar fund to bootstrap carbon dioxide removal Abstract: Computational approaches are increasingly being integrated into qualitative research workflows, offering tools to validate, expand, or even co-create qualitative research. To demonstrate this potential, I present an extended computational case study examining a billion-dollar advance market commitment designed to bootstrap innovation in carbon removal technologies. This three-year project combines participant observation, qualitative content analysis, computational text analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Collectively, these data enable an abductive, conceptually-driven analysis aimed at identifying and theorizing generalized mechanisms of market creation. Specifically, the iterative process of abduction sheds light on how boundaries are constructed—whether in defining stakeholder engagement or accounting for the negative externalities of firm actions—within emergent markets."
"Paul Muller, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-06-03";"13:15";"2025-06-03";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""Do Wage Negotiations Contribute to the Gender Pay Gap? Evidence from Expatriates in the Netherlands"". CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Do Wage Negotiations Contribute to the Gender Pay Gap? Evidence from Expatriates in the Netherlands"" Abstract This study examines whether gender differences in wage negotiations contribute to the gender pay gap. To isolate the importance of wage negotiations for earnings, we exploit a substantial negative wage shock among mid- and high-earning migrants in the Netherlands once their tax benefits (the “30%-rule”) expires. Expiration occurs after 5 to 10 years in the Netherlands, and reduces net income by at least 8,000 Euro annually, generating a strong incentive to renegotiate the wage. Our findings reveal that while wages for both genders increase after the loss of fiscal benefits, men experience an average wage increase that is approximately 0.8-1.5 percentage points higher than that of women. The difference is particularly pronounced among employees with higher earnings. It is also larger in the private sector, and among migrants from outside the EU. These results suggest that wage negotiations significantly contribute to the gender pay gap, explaining a large part of the 9.5% unadjusted gender pay gap in our sample. Joint with Mark van der Meijden, Lisa Timm, and Massimo Giuliodori. For more information about Paul Muller and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Robert Mahlstedt "
"Jonas Slaathaug Hansen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-06-19";"16:00";"2025-06-19";"18:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays in Empirical Industrial Organization.";"Candidate: Jonas Slaathaug Hansen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays in Empirical Industrial Organization Supervisors: Bertel Schjerning, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Anders Munk-Nielsen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Jakob Roland Munch, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Isis Durrmeyer, Professor, Department of Economics, Toulouse School of Economics Matthew Shum, Professor of Economics, Principal Economist at Amazon Summary: This thesis consists of three independent chapters about how the markets we interact with in our everyday life function. All markets have their own peculiarities resulting in different market structures. Market structure refers to the degree of competition and the institutional details that govern interactions between firms within a particular market. To ensure that markets work well and fairly, with e.g. rent-sharing and functioning competition, we often need to enforce regulation, through policies such as taxation and anti-trust. In order to design regulation that reaches its goal efficiently, it is important to have a good understanding of how different peculiarities shape different markets and to use the right tools when doing so. Each of the chapters in this thesis focuses on different aspects of the study of market structures. The first chapter investigates the interaction between primary and secondary automobile markets through a structural model incorporating forward-looking consumers and endogenous price equilibrium. A key finding in the first chapter is that incorporating the secondary markets in the theoretical model of supply and demand for automobiles leads to more market power of automobile producers and higher prices in the primary market, compared to if the secondary market had not been there. In our model, we find that this is true if firms account for the equilibrium effects in the secondary market when they set their prices. If prices in the secondary market also go up following a price increase in the primary market, firms are losing fewer sales by increasing their price and will naturally increase their prices more, ceteris paribus. Understanding what demand looks like is crucial to knowing how firms set their prices and instrumental for designing economic policy in product markets. The second chapter investigates the empirical properties of a newly proposed demand model for differentiated products by comparing it to the current workhorse models in the literature in an empirical application of the Danish market for new automobiles. We show that the Inverse Product Differentiation Logit model, a static discrete choice demand model, estimates substitution patterns that are as flexible as alternative models while having substantial computational benefits over the widely used Random Coefficients Logit and Nested Logit models. Many markets are dominated by few, very large firms, known to negatively impact consumers and other firms through increased market power. The third chapter examines how large firms affect other firms in their supply chain, an important aspect to understand the full effect of large firms. We estimate the causal effect of exporting to a foreign superstar firm — i.e., the largest and most productive firms — on supplying firms. We use data on firm-to-firm international trade between firms in Denmark and Sweden and a dynamic event study approach to show that there are considerable spillover effects in terms of firm growth and productivity from gaining a new foreign superstar firm as a buyer. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Nordic Economic Theory Workshop 2025";"Microeconomic Research Unit (MRU)";"2025-06-26";"09:00";"2025-06-27";"12:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"Workshop 2025";""
"Aksel Vester Augsburg defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-08-25";"15:00";"2025-08-25";"17:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays in Labor Economics: The Role of Firms in Wages, Amenities, and Employment.";"Candidate: Aksel Vester Augsburg, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays in Labor Economics: The Role of Firms in Wages, Amenities, and Employment Supervisors: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Morten Bennedsen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Farzad Saidi, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Bonn Sydnee Caldwell, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley Summary: This thesis consists of 3 self-contained chapters. While the three chapters have different research questions, they share the topic of firms' role in the labor market. They cover implications for wages, unemployment, and inequality that stem from firm differences and competition. Chapter 1: Persistence of Firm Wage Premia: Evidence from Denmark I examine the persistence of the firm component of wages - the firm wage premia - as estimated in the AKM framework. I pay special attention to how choice in the sample selection affects the estimated persistence, and how it affects other applications of the AKM framework. Using data from Denmark, I compare my estimates to results in Sweden and Washington State and I find evidence that firm pay policies are less persistent in Denmark, but the model is very sensitive to changes in the sample. Efforts to focus on workers with a high labor market attachment lower the persistence of firm pay policies. The results have implications for how we should think of high- and low-wage firms over time and the sensitivity of the AKM framework. Chapter 2: Horizontal and Vertical Competition for Workers: Evidence from Danish administrative data with Nikolaj Harmon When firms compete for workers in the labor market, they do it by offering different wages, job amenities and/or other employment terms. We examine the extent and nature of these differences using comprehensive Danish administrative data. To measure differences in the employment terms offered by firms, we estimate AKM firm effects for both earnings, hours and a range of other worker outcomes, capturing family-friendliness, health risks, career-advancement opportunities and job security. We then characterize the nature and extent of how these offered employment terms differ across firms. A bit more than half of the variation in offered terms reflects vertical differentiation, as some firms offer more attractive terms along all dimensions. A substantial part of the variation however also reflects horizontal differentiation, where each firm offers particularly attractive terms in some dimensions but less attractive terms in others. In particular we see evidence that some firms opt to offer both fewer health risks, better career-advancement and better job security, at the expense of offering lower short-run earnings. We also see evidence of some firms emphasizing family-friendliness at the expense of earnings and career-advancement. Chapter 3: Restricted Credit Growth, Loan Cuts, and Employment Growth in the Great Recession with Daniel le Maire and Fane Groes The Great Recession limited firms' ability to finance operations and growth due to credit constraints. This paper examines how restricted credit growth and loan cuts influenced employment among Danish firms during the crisis. Using Danish administrative data linking firms to their primary banks, we find that less healthy banks reduced lending more, especially impacting small and young firms. By distinguishing between limited access to new loans and loan reductions, we show that constrained credit growth hindered employment on the intensive margin, while loan cuts seemed to raise firm closure risks. Our findings offer insights into how credit constraints affect employment and survival among small, young firms An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Michal Kolesár, Princeton University";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-08-26";"10:30";"2025-08-26";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Evaluating Counterfactual Policies Using Instruments"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Evaluating Counterfactual Policies Using Instruments"" Abstract In settings with instrumental variables, the TSLS estimator is the most popular way of summarizing causal evidence. Yet in many settings, the instrument monotonicity assumption needed for its causal interpretation is refuted. A prominent example are designs using the (quasi-)random assignment of defendants to judges as an instrument for incarceration. But ultimately, we may not be interested in the TSLS estimand itself, but rather in the impact of some counterfactual policy intervention (e.g. an encouragement to release more defendants). In this paper, we derive tractable sharp bounds on the impact of such counterfactual policies under reasonable sets of assumptions. We show that for a variety of common policy exercises, the bounds do not depend on whether one imposes instrument monotonicity, and thus one can drop this often-tenuous assumption without loss of information. We explore other restrictions that can help to tighten the bounds, including the policy invariance assumption commonly used in applications of the marginal treatment effects framework and its relaxations. We illustrate the usefulness of this approach in an application involving the quasi-random assignment of prosecutors to defendants in Massachusetts. (With Jon Roth and Pepe Montiel Olea) Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen"
"David Van Dijcke, University of Michigan";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-09-03";"10:45";"2025-09-03";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Regression Discontinuity Design with Distribution-Valued Outcomes"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Regression Discontinuity Design with Distribution-Valued Outcomes"" Abstract This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with DistributionValued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise where treatment is assigned at the level of an aggregate unit (e.g. firms, school districts) but the outcome of interest is an entire within-unit distribution (e.g. employee wages, student test scores). Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. Under a mild continuity assumption on the average of the random quantile functions, the jump in this average at the cutoff identifies a “local average quantile treatment effect”. To estimate this target, I develop a functional local polynomial estimator based on local Fréchet regression. The estimator simultaneously fits the whole quantile curve, requires only one bandwidth, avoids quantile crossing, and—through optimal-transport geometry—yields a meaningful “average distribution”. Exploiting the fact that the Fréchet fit is a projection of pointwise local polynomials onto the space of quantile functions, I establish asymptotic normality, construct robust, bias-corrected uniform confidence bands via a multiplier bootstrap, and propose a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure tailored to distribution-valued outcomes. Simulations confirm the accuracy and rapid convergence of this estimator and demonstrate that standard quantile RDD methods are biased and inconsistent in this setting. I illustrate R3D by estimating the effect of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality–efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution. Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard Sørensen"
"Guillaume Nevo, Uppsala University";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-09-08";"14:15";"2025-09-08";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Large Firms, High Concentration, High Wages”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Large Firms, High Concentration, High Wages"" Abstract How do wages and labor market transitions vary with labor market concentration? Using comprehensive French employer-employee data, I show that wages increase – contrary to what has been shown in other countries – and transition rates decrease when concentration increases. I propose a search-and-matching model with a discrete number of firms, optimal vacancy posting and a fixed cost of entry. My model replicates my main two empirical findings: (1) when the entry cost increases, only the most productive firms enter, the market is more concentrated, wages are higher, and transition rates are lower; (2) given a labor market, an increase in productivity at one large firm increases wages at all firms through the increase in output at that firm and in outside option at all other firms, increases transition rates towards that firm, and reduces them towards all other firms. I quantify the markdowns on wages and show they are always relatively small. I investigate the first-best solution in which a planner chooses the distribution of workers across firms to maximize output: the planner concentrates employment among most productive firms, it increases output, mean wage, and total income to workers despite increasing concentration and unemployment. Efficiency can, in general, not be restored - yet second-best implementations using individual tax and subsidy rates or flat taxes almost achieve the first-best solution. For more information about Guillaume Nevo and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Sascha Becker, Warwick University";"Department of Economics";"2025-09-10";"14:00";"2025-09-10";"15:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""From the Death of God to the Rise of Fascism"". Department seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""From the Death of God to the Rise of Fascism"" Abstract Can weakened religiosity lead to the rise of totalitarianism? Fascist parties in both Italy and Germany set themselves up as a political religions, emphasizing redemption, sacrifice, rituals, and communal spirit. This had a major impact on their success: Where religiosity was lower, as reflected in first names, the Italian Fascist and the German Nazi party received higher electoral support and saw more party entry. Where the influence of Christianity was weak, and superstitious practices survived, support for fascist parties was greater. Voting for the Communist Party shows similar associations with weak Christianity. Importantly, we find predictive power at the individual level: Within each municipality, the likelihood of joining the Italian Fascist and the Nazi Party was higher for those with less Christian first names. (Joint with Joachim Voth) Contact person: Pablo Selaya"
"Maarten de Ridder, London School of Economic";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-09-15";"14:15";"2025-09-15";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Emissions-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Emissions-Adjusted Total Factor Productivity"" Abstract Traditional estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) measure the output that a bundle of inputs produces. But production comes with emissions that stay in the atmosphere for decades, which means that productivity does not capture the full effect of today’s production on the present value of consumption. We propose a measure for emissions-adjusted total factor productivity (TFPE) that takes these long-run effects into account. TFPE is a relevant measure of productivity under general assumptions consistent with canonical integrated assessment models and “green national accounts.” It is straightforward to calculate and relies only on publicly available data, as well as an estimate of the social cost of carbon. For traditional (small) estimates on the economic effects of climate change, TFPE is approximately equal to TFP. For recent (large) estimates of the social cost of carbon, however, TFPE and TFP growth decouple. In the United States, the rapid decline in emissions over the past 20 years raises annual TFPE growth by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast to traditional productivity measures, growth in TFPE accelerates after the mid-2000s. For more information about Maarten de Ridder and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"Sahil Raina, University of Alberta";"Finance Research Unit (FRU)";"2025-09-17";"10:00";"2025-09-17";"11:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Labor Market Consequences of Increased Default Penalties"". FRU seminar";"""Labor Market Consequences of Increased Default Penalties"" We examine how borrowers reduce their default rates when faced with heightened default penalties, specifically with respect to their labor market choices. Exploiting a 2009 Canadian regulation increasing the expected cost of default, we confirm that affected borrowers indeed become less likely to default. To reduce their default rates, they increase the number of jobs they hold and spend less time searching for jobs when unemployed. Consequently, they have lower incomes and face larger income declines in their new jobs. They also choose jobs with lower retirement savings. Further, we show that these borrowers’ labor incomes do not recover after they pay off their debt. Contact person: Peter Norman Sørensen "
"Lykke Sterll Christensen defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-09-17";"14:00";"2025-09-17";"16:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Educational and Economic Inequality: Essays on School Access, Social Interactions, and Life Values.";"Candidate: Lykke Sterll Christensen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Educational and Economic Inequality: Essays on School Access, Social Interactions, and Life Values Supervisor: Mette Ejrnæs, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Mette Gørtz, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Maria Humlum, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Aarhus Arnaud Chevalier, Professor, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London Summary: This dissertation explores how institutional rules, individual traits, and family dynamics in childhood or youth influence outcomes in the short-run and, in one case, the long-run. Although the dissertation consists of four self-contained chapters, they are somewhat related by the population of study being children or adolescents enrolled in primary or lower secondary school. Chapter 1: Playing the System: Address Manipulation and Access to Schools Co-authored with Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen, Mikkel Høst Gandil, and Hans Henrik Sievertsen Strategic behavior is common in allocation systems, increasing the demand for market designs that ensure fairness and transparency. While prior research has focused on the manipulation of reported preferences, i.e. ranking of desired schools, we highlight a hitherto overlooked form of strategic behavior: manipulation of fixed eligibility traits. In this chapter, we study whether Danish high school applicants manipulate the allocation system by strategically changing their residence to one that is closer to their most preferred high school when eligibility is based on residential proximity. Using population-wide administrative data and two policy reforms, we identify causal effects of incentive changes on address manipulation. The first reform increased the incentive to change residence, leading to a sharp rise in strategic behavior, particularly among higher-income families and applicants to oversubscribed schools. The second reform introduced verification requirements, substantially reducing manipulation and indicating that many address changes were likely not genuine. We show that such manipulation displaces non-manipulating applicants into schools with lower peer quality, potentially harming their academic environment. By simulating counterfactual admissions, we demonstrate that trait manipulation can have larger distributional consequences than traditional preference misreporting. Survey evidence confirms that applicants are aware of and willing to engage in this form of manipulation when incentives align and enforcement is weak. Our findings emphasize the need for market designs that anticipate and mitigate manipulation of eligibility traits, extending the focus beyond preference reporting. Chapter 2: Perceived Self-Efficacy and School Starting Age Starting school at an older age has been shown to improve early cognitive test performance, but subsequent research suggests these benefits largely reflect age-at-test effects rather than lasting cognitive gains. This calls into question whether school starting age (SSA) can explain long-term outcomes such as mental health, adult health, or educational attainment. In this chapter, I propose that perceived self-efficacy (PSE), a non-cognitive skill reflecting an individual’s belief in their capacity to overcome challenges, may be a key mechanism linking SSA to later-life outcomes. Using rich longitudinal survey data on Danish schoolchildren combined with administrative records, I estimate the causal effect of SSA on PSE through a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that exploits school entry rules based on birthdate. I find that starting school one year older significantly increases students’ perceived self-efficacy, with effects persisting throughout the school years. These results are particularly robust among children in grades 4–9, suggesting lasting psychological impacts beyond the early school years. To assess external validity, I examine heterogeneity across compliance types and find that treatment effects are localized: “never takers” tend to have higher baseline PSE, while “always takers” may suffer from behavioral challengeds that distinguish them from compliers. Nevertheless, the effects are relevant to a sizable population group. Additional analyses suggest that academic feedback and peer comparisons may partially mediate the relationship between SSA and PSE, particularly among older students. Based on these findings, teachers and schools could consider providing students with age-adjusted feedback on their academic test performance. Chapter 3: Bullying and Birth Order Co-authored with Emil Chrisander School bullying has serious, lasting impacts on children's mental health, academic performance, and social outcomes. Drawing on psychological research suggesting that early family dynamics shape children’s social behavior, this chapter investigates how sibling birth order affects the likelihood of being involved in school bullying, either as a victim, a perpetrator, or both. We link comprehensive longitudinal survey data on Danish schoolchildren to registry data, applying a within-family design to isolate birth order effects. Furthermore, as the literature on bullying suggests that not only individual characteristics matter for the risk of bully exposure, but also the social context, we also examine how the birth order composition of school cohorts moderates individual bullying risk. We find that secondborns are more likely to engage in bullying but less likely to be victimized, yet with their risk of victimization increasing if the share of firstborn peers increase. Effects are particularly pronounced among secondborn boys and closely spaced siblings. In an attempt to understand why secondborn siblings have a higher likelihood of bullying compared to their firstborn sibling, we broaden the characteristic of secondborn siblings by investigating differences in non-cognitive traits across birth order. We find that secondborn siblings have less favorable traits, making them more emotionally vulnerable and less socially integrated. Hence, our findings suggest that early family roles influence children's school behavior and that this behavior may act as a precursor for later-life antisocial behavior. Chapter 4: Life Values in Adolescence Predict Life Course Earnings and Inequality Co-authored with Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Asbjørn Juul Petersen, Søren Leth-Petersen, and Malthe Hauschildt Veje A large literature in social science studies the determinants of lifetime earnings and intergenerational inequality. Cognitive skills, educational attainment, and parental background are well-established predictors of labor market success, with more recent work highlighting the importance of non-cognitive traits such as personality and preferences. In this chapter, we examine an underexplored determinant which is adolescent life values. In particular, we study whether values like conservatism and gender traditionalism predict earnings across the entire working life. Using population-wide administrative data linked to a nationally representative Danish cohort surveyed at 18-19 years old, we track earnings over four decades while controlling for cognitive ability, parental background, and time preferences. We find that life values measured in late adolescence are strong predictors of long-term earnings, comparable in importance to established factors like parental SES and cognitive skills. Individuals who express more conservative values tend to experience lower lifetime earnings, suggesting that early value orientations influence career paths, educational decisions, and responsiveness to labor market change. Our findings suggest that life values may be an overlooked driver of inequality which raises important questions about the development and malleability of life values during adolescence. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"SODAS Data Discussion 1 (Fall 2025)";"SODAS";"2025-09-19";"11:00";"2025-09-19";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Berit Tricia Heling and August Lohse for the Fall 2025 Data Discussion series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Berit Tricia Heling Title: Exploring the Psychometrics of Employer Image Attributes with LLMs Abstract: In response to growing talent shortages, organizations try to improve their Employer Branding strategies in job advertisements to attract qualified candidates. Understanding how the Employer Image is communicated and the outcomes associated with its presence and valence remains a complex and resource-intensive task, often constrained by the volume of job ads and the limitations of human raters. Natural Language Processing (NLP) through Large Language Models (LLMs) has emerged as a tool with significant potential in the analysis of large amounts of text. Drawing on extensive datasets of job advertisements and corresponding recruitment outcomes, we investigate the reliability and validity of LLM-generated ratings in the domain of Employer Branding. Preliminary findings raise questions about the correspondence of human and LLM perception, training methodologies of LLMs, and implications for the usage of LLMs to analyze Employer Image attributes in job advertisements. Discussion 2 Presenter: August Lohse Title: What Can We Learn from 10 Years of Student Exams? Abstract: In this presentation we will discuss a unique dataset of student handins. I will present two use cases of the data - specifically on how the emergence of widely available GAI has affected the writing of students, as well as an analysis of how writing complexity and grading are related. Afterwards there will be a lot of time for discussing new use cases of the data, and develop research ideas."
"Ragnar Torvik, NTNU";"Department of Economics";"2025-09-24";"14:00";"2025-09-24";"15:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""Fear and Dreams: Understanding the non-Institutional sources of Leader Strategy"". Department seminar.";"""Fear and Dreams: Understanding the non-Institutional sources of Leader Strategy"" Abstract Political leaders make policy choices which are often hard to explain via institutions. We use the behavior of Colombian paramilitary groups as an environment to study non-institutional sources of variation in how public good provision and violence are combined to control populations. We hypothesize that a significant source of variation stems from the social preferences of the paramilitary commanders. Reciprocators adopt a strategy of offering public goods in exchange for support, but also use violence to punish those who do not reciprocate back. Reciprocity, developed via childhood socialization, is a characteristic of rural ""peasants''. We develop a model which generates these hypotheses and test them using a unique dataset compiled from transitional justice documents. Co-authors: Maria Angelica Bautista, Juan Sebastian Galan, James A. Robinson, and Rafael F. Torres. For more information about Ragnar Torvik and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Pablo Selaya "
"Jonna Olsson, NHH Norwegian School of Economics";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-09-29";"14:15";"2025-09-29";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Who should work how much?"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Who should work how much?"" Abstract A production efficiency perspective naturally leads to the prescription that more productive individuals should work more than less productive individuals. Yet, systematic differences in actual hours worked across high- and low-wage individuals are barely noticeable. We highlight that the insurance available to households is an important determinant behind this fact. Using a dynamic heterogeneous-agent model with insurance frictions, income effects calibrated to match aggregate hours across time and space, and financial frictions that deliver realistic wealth dispersion, we report stark effects of insurance: perfect insurance would raise aggregate labor productivity by 9.6 percent and decrease hours worked by 7.7 percent. For more information about Jonna Olsson and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl/John V. Kramer"
"Grigory Franguridi, University of Southern California";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-10-01";"10:45";"2025-10-01";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Inference in partially identified moment models via regularized optimal transport"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""Inference in partially identified moment models via regularized optimal transport"" Abstract Partial identification often arises from incomplete knowledge of the joint distribution of the data, even though the marginal distributions are point-identified. In such cases, bounds on a parameter of interest can be characterized as the solution to an optimal transport problem. To conduct inference on these bounds, we propose the use of entropic regularization, which adds a penalty term to the objective function that penalizes deviations of the joint distribution from the product of input distributions. We derive the $\sqrt{n}$-consistency and asymptotic normality of a general class of plug-in estimators for these bounds. Our theoretical results enable standard statistical inference for partially identified parameters in a wide range of applications, including the estimation of nonlinear treatment effects under unconfoundedness and the estimation of the Euler equation in macro-finance. We illustrate our methodology with Monte Carlo simulations for panel data models with selective attrition under the availability of refreshment samples. (with Laura Liu) Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard Sørensen"
"Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-10-06";"14:15";"2025-10-06";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Monetary stabilization of sectoral tariffs"" in combination with ""Trading blows: The exchange-rate response to tariffs and retaliations"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Monetary stabilization of sectoral tariffs"" in combination with ""Trading blows: The exchange-rate response to tariffs and retaliations"" Abstract (Monetary stabilization of sectoral tariffs) This paper studies the optimal monetary stabilization of tariffs using a two-country, two-traded sector New Keynesian model, where tariffs imply inefficient sectoral reallocation as well as changes in aggregate output and inflation. We find that the optimal response to a tariff on imports of differentiated goods requires domestic currency appreciation to offset the tariff’s distortion on international relative prices. In our two-country environment, it is efficient for this exchange rate appreciation to be implemented primarily through monetary expansion in the foreign country; the monetary response in the home country is typically small, and can be either mildly expansionary or contractionary. Robust monetary expansion may nonetheless be appropriate when export prices are sticky in the local currency (LCP) and when the tariff is levied on the competitive non-differentiated goods sector. Co-author: Paul R. Bergin, University of California at Davis Abstract (Trading blows: The exchange-rate response to tariffs and retaliations) This paper provides econometric evidence on how exchange rates respond to tariffs. We construct a new tariff-shock database, which captures tariff-related announcements, threats and implementations by the US, China, the euro area and Canada between 2018 and 2020, and in 2025. Our shock measure accounts for both the size of tariff rates and their economic relevance. We show that exchange rates react to US tariff shocks in systematically different ways depending on retaliation: the US dollar (USD) appreciates if the tariff is imposed unilaterally, but depreciates if other countries retaliate. This empirical pattern resonates with the predictions of recent open-macro models with dominant currency pricing. In light of our evidence and drawing on theory, we conclude that the USD depreciation following the US tariff announcement on 2 April 2025 was not surprising. The spike in long-maturity US Treasury yields was, however, more unprecedented. Co-authors: Daniel Ostry and Simon Lloyd For more information about Giancarlo Corsetti and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: John V. Kramer"
"Patrik Guggenberger, Penn State University";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-10-08";"10:30";"2025-10-08";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""On the numerical approximation of minimax regret rules via fictitious play"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics.";"""On the numerical approximation of minimax regret rules via fictitious play"" Abstract Finding numerical approximations to minimax regret treatment rules is of key interest. To do so when potential outcomes are in {0, 1} we discretize the action space of nature and apply a variant of Robinson’s (1951) algorithm for iterative solutions for finite two-person zero sum games. Our approach avoids the need to evaluate regret of each treatment rule in each iteration. When potential outcomes are in [0, 1] we apply the so-called coarsening approach. We consider a policymaker choosing between two treatments after observing data with unequal sample sizes per treatment and the case of testing several innovations against the status quo. (with Jiaqi Huang) Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard Sørensen"
"SODAS Data Discussion 2 (Fall 2025)";"SODAS";"2025-10-10";"11:00";"2025-10-10";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Frederik Hjorth and Hjalmar Bang Carlsen for the Fall 2025 Data Discussion series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Frederik Hjorth Title: The Political Origins of Critical Social Science Abstract: The interface between social science theories and politics is rarely studied systematically. Yet, there are many examples of political actors and movements shaping the social sciences. We study the emergence of ""critical social science"" as a political phenomenon, and investigate its political origins. Drawing on academic publication data, we propose a measurement strategy that captures the output of critical social science at the level of universities, subnational locations, and countries. Using our measure of critical social science, we chart its rise over time and space, and analyze its historical origins in radical student protest movements. Specifically, we look at whether the intensity and incidence of mass student protests 1968-1978 affects the university-level output of critical social science in the following decades. Our contribution highlights the importance of political history for understanding the trajectory of the social sciences, and how this can be studied rigorously in a large-n framework. Discussion 2 Presenter: Hjalmar Bang Carlsen Title: The Reliability of AI Interviewers Abstract: AI-interviewers, which employ large language models (LLMs) to conduct adaptive interviews, have been proposed as a hybrid method that combines the breadth of surveys with the depth of qualitative interviews. A key challenge for their use in comparative research is reliability: the extent to which AI-interviewers reproduce consistent question wording and order across interviews. This paper evaluates the reliability of different AI-interviewer designs, ranging from loosely guided agents that generate questions freely to constrained agents instructed to reproduce fixed wording and order. Using simulated interviews with synthetic respondents, we systematically test variation in question formulation, adherence to prescribed question order, and the ability to responsively update question wording and order correctly to the interview context. Our initial results show substantial unreliability, with unconstrained designs producing the greatest variability, including not only alternative phrasings but also entirely different questions that shift the construct being measured. Even in more constrained designs, deviations in order and wording remain frequent and substantively consequential. We conclude that while responsiveness is a strength of AI-interviews, preserving comparability requires stricter design controls to limit interviewer-induced variability without eliminating adaptive probing."
"Xinwei Ma, UCSD";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-10-20";"14:00";"2025-10-20";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Covariate-Adjusted Response-Adaptive Design with Delayed Outcomes"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Covariate-Adjusted Response-Adaptive Design with Delayed Outcomes"" Abstract Covariate-adjusted response-adaptive (CARA) designs have gained widespread adoption for their clear benefits in enhancing experimental efficiency and participant welfare. These designs dynamically adjust treatment allocations during interim analyses based on participant responses and covariates collected during the experiment. However, delayed responses can significantly compromise the effectiveness of CARA designs, as they hinder timely adjustments to treatment assignments when certain participant outcomes are not immediately observed. In this paper, we propose a fully forward-looking CARA design that dynamically updates treatment assignments throughout the experiment as response delay mechanisms are progressively estimated. Our design strategy is informed by novel semiparametric efficiency calculations that explicitly account for outcome delays in a multi-stage setting. Through both theoretical investigations and simulation studies, we demonstrate that our proposed design offers a robust solutionfor handling delayed outcomes in CARA designs, yielding significant improvements in both statistical power and participant welfare. Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen"
"Thomas Le Barbanchon, Bocconi University Milan";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-10-21";"13:15";"2025-10-21";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""How do migrants and natives search for jobs?"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""How do migrants and natives search for jobs?"" Abstract In this paper, we explore job-search-related sources of the migrant-native earnings gap and unemployment duration gap. Using a sample of over 400,000 jobseekers from the largest online platform in Sweden, we find that migrants from developing countries send more applications and apply to jobs that pay 3.2\% less (1.5\% less when controlling for observable characteristics). This behaviour could stem from migrants expecting a higher penalty in the success of their applications for higher-paying jobs, or from information frictions. Leveraging data on hires that we can match to applications at the worker-employer level, we show that the probability of being hired is indeed lower for migrants than for natives, but that the gap is not larger for higher-paying jobs, suggesting the relevance of information imperfections. To test this hypothesis, we take advantage of a randomised experiment that nudged jobseekers to apply to randomly different sets of jobs. We find that migrants nudged to apply to higher-paying jobs experience higher (rather than lower) probabilities of being hired, which supports the hypothesis of undershooting due to information frictions. Co-authors: Marion Brouard, Lena Hensvik, and Roland Rathelot. For more information about Thomas Le Barbanchon and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Robert Mahlstedt "
"Simon Trimborn, University of Amsterdam ";"Finance Research Unit (FRU)";"2025-10-29";"10:00";"2025-10-29";"11:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""The geographic origins of blockchain transactions"". FRU seminar";"""The geographic origins of blockchain transactions"" Abstract We investigate the transaction patterns of users by their geographical origin and design a Random Forest based prediction index for the share of transactions per region. Theoretical research has shown that blockchain information matter for the valuation of cryptocurrencies and empirical research relies solely on global measures given the anonymity of blockchain transactions. But Bitcoin adoption differs globally, hence differences in the relevance of regions is only natural. Using the index, trained on a unique dataset spanning 5 years of blockchain transactions and their associated geographical origin, we propose region-specific blockchain metrics. Research has shown that market dynamics matter for users choices of their transaction fees. We show that this effect differs by region. We further show that region-specific blockchain metrics improve market modeling and forecasting as compared to the global metrics. Contact person: Stefan Voigt"
"SODAS Lecture with Martin Fleischmann";"SODAS";"2025-10-31";"11:00";"2025-10-31";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS Lecture with Martin Fleischmann from Charles University";"Title: Spatial data in the open Abstract: How does a researcher become known for their open source efforts? As a by-product. Like I had. In this talk, I will share how I (sort of) became a software developer even though I never intended to, how that shaped my career and research, and what came out of it during that time. We'll jump back in time to meet Martin, who had no clue how to write a line of Python code and how he was going to do what he promised in his PhD proposal. We'll walk with him, see his rookie mistakes and first (software) babies. We'll watch all the coincidences that happened and how he (by mistake!) became responsible for core components of spatial data handling in Python. Surprisingly, there were also some research outputs alongside, so we'll make sure to cover them and their relation to all the mistakes and coincidences, flying through the years to the present day, watching his hair getting greyer. Along this journey, I'll share with you my love of open science (and where it went wrong), cities and their structure (that is the research part), and a peek under the hood of scientific software development."
"Tobias Gabel Christiansen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-10-31";"15:00";"2025-10-31";"17:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Empirical Essays on Tax Enforcement and Compliance.";"Candidate: Tobias Gabel Christiansen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Empirical Essays on Tax Enforcement and Compliance Supervisors: Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Niels Johannesen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen James Alm, Emeritus Professor, Department of Economics, Tulane University Vedran Sekara, Associate Professor, IT University of Copenhagen Summary: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. In the first chapter, I study the long-run effects of randomized tax audits and show that taxpayers’ behavioral responses depend critically on their intentions: unintentional non-compliers substantially increase future compliance - generating revenue gains more than three times the initial audit finding. In contrast, those who deliberately evade taxes show no increase in compliance. This finding suggests that tax agencies can optimize their resources and achieve better compliance by targeting those who respond strongly to audits or by adopting more cost-effective measures such as personalized guidance to reduce inadvertent misreporting. In the second chapter, written together with Johanne Søndergaard, we show that self-employed individuals and principal shareholders of SMEs use person-to-person mobile payment platforms to conceal income. Announcing access to transaction data has small effects on compliance unless combined with audits, which significantly reduce transfers among non-compliant taxpayers. We further show how real-time digital traces can strengthen tax enforcement when used in conjunction with audits. In the third chapter, written together with Christian Igel and Andreas Bjerre-Nielsen, we evaluate a large-scale randomized audit experiment at the Danish Tax Agency and find that machine-learning–guided case selection improves case-worker productivity and increases net revenue relative to current practices. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Amalia Repele, Stockholm University";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-11-03";"14:15";"2025-11-03";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Wealth Sorting and Cyclical Employment Risk”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Wealth Sorting and Cyclical Employment Risk"" Abstract I present empirical evidence that U.S. workers with low liquid wealth face significantly higher cyclical employment risk. This finding cannot be fully explained by skills, socio-demographics, or past income. I propose a framework that generates a negative correlation between wealth and employment risk in equilibrium, through job sorting based on wealth. Job search provides an insurance mechanism for liquidity constrained and risk-averse unemployed workers. Asset-poor unemployed sort into relatively lower wage and lower security jobs, because these jobs offer a relatively higher job finding probability. I build a quantitative model to study the implications of wealth sorting for wages and job transitions over the business cycle, as well as its consequence for long-term inequalities. The interaction between employment risk and wealth accumulation generates a “poverty trap” which is amplified in bad times. The cost of entering unemployment during a recession amounts to 3% of lifetime consumption for the poorest, more than twice that of the wealthiest. For more information about Amalia Repele and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: John V. Kramer"
"Dennis Kristensen, University College London";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-11-06";"14:00";"2025-11-06";"15:15";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Multivariate Transformation Models"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Multivariate Transformation Models"" Abstract This paper develops novel results for nonparametric identification of two classes of multivariate transformation models. The identification argument imposes weak restrictions on the models and only requires that (i) a sufficient number of exogenous covariates are available, (ii) the log-density of the errors satisfies a rank condition and, if endogenous covariates enter the model, (iii) either instruments or control functions are available. The proof is constructive in the sense that it leads to natural estimators of the identified components. We apply the general theory to show identification in a class of multivariate demand models a la Berry-Levinsohn-Pakes under weaker conditions compared to existing ones found in the literature. Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard Sørensen"
"SODAS Data Discussion 3 (Fall 2025)";"SODAS";"2025-11-07";"11:00";"2025-11-07";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Daniel Juhász Vigild and Stephanie Brandl for the Fall 2025 Data Discussion series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Daniel Juhász Vigild Title: How Government Use of AI Impacts its Trustworthiness Abstract: Artificial intelligence has attracted considerable interest as a means of improving efficiency and productivity in the public sector and enhancing the quality of public services. Yet, deploying AI in public institutions may also create unintended social costs that undermine these potential benefits. Across two survey experiments (N = 2,000) examining the use of AI in four different public institutions, we assess how AI adoption affects perceptions of institutional trustworthiness. We find that AI reduces trust in some, but not all, of the institutions in our study. To account for these divergent effects, we propose ""algorithmic nimbyism"" as a mechanism that helps explain variation in how AI impacts institutional trust. Discussion 2 Presenter: Stephanie Brandl Title: Identifying Fine-grained Forms of Populism in Political Discourse: A Case Study on Donald Trump's Presidential Campaigns Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of instruction-following tasks, yet their grasp of nuanced social science concepts remains underexplored. This paper examines whether LLMs can identify and classify fine-grained forms of populism, a complex and contested concept in both academic and media debates. To this end, we curate and release novel datasets specifically designed to capture populist discourse. We evaluate a range of pre-trained (large) language models, both open-weight and proprietary, across multiple prompting paradigms. Our analysis reveals notable variation in performance, highlighting the limitations of LLMs in detecting populist discourse. We find that a fine-tuned RoBERTa classifier vastly outperforms all new-era instruction-tuned LLMs, unless fine-tuned. Additionally, we apply our best-performing model to analyze campaign speeches by Donald Trump, extracting valuable insights into his strategic use of populist rhetoric. Finally, we assess the generalizability of these models by benchmarking them on campaign speeches by European politicians, offering a lens into cross-context transferability in political discourse analysis. In this setting, we find that instruction-tuned LLMs exhibit greater robustness on out-of-domain data."
"Josefina Cenzon, Bocconi University";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-11-10";"14:15";"2025-11-10";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Credit Market Experiences and Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory"" Abstract Using the NY Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, I document a rejection-acceptance belief gap in macroeconomic expectations: households overweight personal credit rejections when forecasting the macroeconomy. The gap follows a similarity gradient: largest for aggregate credit, then inflation, unemployment, and stocks, and is accompanied by systematic forecast errors, ruling out a pure information channel. A contextual, associative-recall model, in which salient rejections cue similar ''low'' states, organises these facts and predicts stronger effects among younger and lower-SES households and in adverse macro states. The data, together with a new survey measuring perceived similarity, confirm both the heterogeneity and the gradient. Embedding the mechanism in a consumption-saving framework and using survey microdata on planned durables, I show that belief-driven pessimism reduces planned durable spending, increases saving, and can amplify downturns. For more information about Josefina Cenzon and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: John V. Kramer"
"Timo Schenk, Erasmus University Rotterdam";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) ";"2025-11-12";"10:30";"2025-11-12";"11:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Inference in Event Studies with Approximately Parallel Trends"". ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Inference in Event Studies with Approximately Parallel Trends"" Abstract Examining pre-trends violations is a common approach to validating the parallel trends assumption necessary for difference-in-difference designs. When parallel trends are rejected by the data, however, applied researchers commonly continue to interpret treatment effect estimates as long as the observed pre-trend violations are deemed sufficiently small. To rationalize this behavior, we recast difference-in-difference designs as relying only on an approximate version of parallel trends, which allows parallel trends not to hold in all realizations of the data. Our reformulation delivers new inference procedures that account for uncertainty about possible deviations from parallel trends. (with Nikolaj Harmon and Mikkel Sølvsten) Contact person: Jesper Riis-Vestergaard Sørensen"
"Amelie Schiprowski, University of Bonn";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-11-18";"13:15";"2025-11-18";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Reducing Mandatory Job Search in Unemployment Insurance”. CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Reducing Mandatory Job Search in Unemployment Insurance"" Abstract This paper studies the effects of a market-level reduction in job search provided by unemployment benefit recipients. We exploit a large-scale policy experiment in Switzerland, where a subset of Public Employment Services drastically reduced the number of required applications and vacancy referrals. Using detailed administrative data and difference-in-differences designs, we find that the policy change increased the average duration of unemployment spells by about 6%, implying an elasticity of job finding to search of about 0.25. We find suggestive evidence of limited market externalities from job search due to highly elastic vacancy posting. Finally, the policy change increased reemployment earnings by about 2% on average, suggesting that job seekers were able to direct their search toward higher paying jobs. For more information about Amelie Schiprowski and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Robert Mahlstedt"
"SODAS Lecture with Ruud Wouters";"SODAS";"2025-11-21";"11:00";"2025-11-21";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS Lecture with Ruud Wouters from Tilburg University";"Title: Protest and Politicization in the Hybrid Media Arena Abstract: A key goal of groups staging protest is to kickstart political debate. This protest-induced politicization is the key mediating mechanism that makes protest powerful. In this talk, I first present a preliminary political communication theory of protest influence. Departing from protest as a communicative act, I argue that protest needs two-factor authentication (by journalists and politicians) for it to impact public opinion and legislative processes. I map extant research and its blind spots on a causal chain that goes from protest, over mediatization and politicization, to public opinion and legislation (and back again). I contextualize this causal chain in the current political and communication system: with traditional forms of democratic linkage in decline, protest on the rise, and increasingly volatile citizens embedded in a more hybrid political communication environment, I expect protest to increasingly structure political conflict, driving voter-party re-alignment and cleavage formation. Subsequently, I illustrate sections of this larger causal chain by original analyses of protest event (N=1,277), mass (N= 242,871) and social media data (142,589) covering the case of Belgium (2003-2019). Results highlight the conditions under which protest succeeds to spark, surf or sustain media-issue attention waves; uncover patterns as to whether and how politicians show responsive to protest on their social media accounts, and link protest induced politicization on social media to mass media agenda setting. Together, these findings uncover the dynamics of political contestation driven by grassroots mobilization in an era of hybrid media."
"CANCELLED! Galo Nuno, Bank of Spain";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-11-24";"14:15";"2025-11-24";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“TBA”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Galo Nuno and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Jeppe Druedahl"
"Kathrine Aaby Lorenzen defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-11-26";"11:00";"2025-11-26";"13:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: The Physician Labor Market.";"Candidate: Kathrine Aaby Lorenzen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: The Physician Labor Market Supervisors: Torben Heien Nielsen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Casper Worm Hansen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Ingrid Hägele, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München Volha Lazuka, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Southern Denmark Summary: This dissertation examines the physician labor market in Denmark from three topical angles: gender economics, health economics, and economic history. The dissertation consists of three chapters. The first two chapters study a Danish working hour reform implemented in 1982, which enforced a 40-hour workweek among subordinate hospital physicians through overtime restrictions and job creation. The first chapter investigates how this policy affected physicians' occupational choice and family formation. The second chapter goes one step further and asks whether this type of ""family-friendly"" policy has any implications for healthcare provision and patient safety. The last chapter in the thesis takes the reader even further back in history and studies occupational sorting over a century from when the first Danish female physician, Nielsine Nielsen, graduated medical school. Chapter 1: Family-friendly Jobs and Occupational Sorting across Gender In this chapter, I study the impact of changes in the family-friendliness of jobs on occupational choice across gender in the labor market for physicians. I utilize a Danish working hour reform implemented in 1982, which imposed a maximum 40-hour workweek for junior hospital physicians through overtime restrictions and job creation. To do so, I digitize archival data and combine it with administrative data. I find that the reform affected some specialties more than others, with the least flexible (acute) specialties being the most affected. I exploit these differing treatment intensities across specialties in order to estimate the impact of family-friendly hours constraints on specialty choice across gender in a dose-response difference-in-differences design. My results suggest that the share of females sorting into a specialty increased more where introduction of a 40-hour workweek had more bite. Exploiting that the reform acts as a labor demand shock and creates a tight labor market two years following the reform, I examine whether dynamic effects vary with labor market conditions. I find that dynamic effects peak in the short run when the labor market was attractive from the labor supply perspective. In addition, I find little evidence that individuals sorting into specialties after the reform differ in terms of fertility or likelihood of marriage. My results suggest that preferences for working hours are important for occupational choice across gender and hence gender inequality in wages. Chapter 2: Physician Overtime Restrictions and Patient Mortality Co-authored with Gonçalo Lima In this chapter, we study how constraining physicians' working hours affects hospitals' healthcare provision and patients' health. We evaluate a 1982 reform in Denmark that strongly restricted the scheduling of overtime, weekend, and nighttime shifts. Consistent with an hours-to-workers substitution, hospitals' labor demand increased by 35% one-year after implementation. Drawing on administrative data covering the universe of somatic hospitalizations in Denmark, we combine this labor demand shock with variation in exposure to the policy across hospital wards in a dose-response difference-in-differences strategy. As exposure, we use the pre-reform share of emergency cases in each hospital ward, that we show to be highly predictive of post-policy labor demand changes. We find that a one-standard-deviation difference in exposure to overtime restrictions led to 2.4 fewer deaths in hospital for every thousand admissions (-5.8%), three years after the onset of the reform. The overall mortality decline is driven by greater gains among patients with urgent medical needs, with no changes on post-discharge readmission rates or average length-of-stay. Our findings highlight how working hour regulations can help correct for life-costing inefficiencies in the healthcare sector. Chapter 3: Sorting across a Century of High-Skilled Women and Men: Evidence from the Rise of Modern Health Care Co-authored with Ida Lykke Kristiansen, Torben Heien Nielsen, and Frederik Plesner Lyngse In this chapter, we study how the expansion of the medical field impacted female physician careers over a century from when the first female graduated medical school in 1885. We build a novel historical database covering the full population of physicians in Denmark from 1479 to 2000 and further enrich it with details on educational achievements in high school and medical school. We provide quantitative insights into the gender gaps in highly skilled labor. We document significant differences across gender that do not disappear over the course of a century but rather shape the norms in the profession that carry over into the contemporary labor market. Specifically, we find that although male and female physicians specialize at the same rate, female physicians take longer to do so. Women are more likely to enter new medical specialties that arise with the ""rise of scientific medicine"". Additionally, female physicians' returns to their medical school grades are lower, as they are persistently less likely to become chief physicians. Finally, we find that female physicians are significantly less likely to have a spouse, suggesting a trade-off between family and career for females, which is not present for males. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Piotr &#379;och, University of Warsaw ";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-12-01";"14:15";"2025-12-01";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Optimal Asset Market Operations"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Optimal Asset Market Operations"" Abstract We characterize governments' optimal responses to asset market disturbances across a broad class of models with financial frictions. We show that the Ramsey plan can be achieved by a policy rule targeting a specific relationship between asset returns, regardless of the underlying disturbances. This relationship is determined by asset supply and demand elasticities that can be estimated empirically with standard identification strategies. Absent financial frictions, the optimal policy stabilizes spreads across all assets. However, in the presence of financial frictions, the optimal rule prescribes time-varying spreads to facilitate financial intermediation. We apply our framework to study the optimal design of asset purchase and lending programs, as implied by key empirical estimates of asset supply and demand elasticities. Co-author: Yu-Ting Chiang For more information about Piotr Żoch and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn "
"Anastasija Tetereva, Erasmus University Rotterdam";"Finance Research Unit (FRU)";"2025-12-03";"10:00";"2025-12-03";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Forecast Combination for Tail Risk with Regulator-Aware Decision Trees"". FRU seminar ";"""Forecast Combination for Tail Risk with Regulator-Aware Decision Trees"" Abstract In this paper, we suggest a novel approach to combining forecasts, whereby the weights are modeled as a nonparametric function of market conditions. It is assumed that the optimal weights are identical across observations within a given regime and differ across regimes. The number of regimes and their duration are identified in a fully data-driven way using tailor-made machine learning algorithm. The new forecast combination method is applied to forecast downside market risk measures, demonstrating that localising the weights using bagged modified decision trees significantly enhances forecasting performance. The superior statistical and economic performance of the introduced forecast combination technique is illustrated through an application to daily returns of 30 large cap stocks. By Ekaterina Kazak, Anastasija Tetereva Contact person: Stefan Voigt"
"SODAS Lecture with Sander van der Linden";"SODAS";"2025-12-04";"11:00";"2025-12-04";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS Lecture with Sander van der Linden from the University of Cambridge";"Title: Psychological Inoculation Against Misinformation Abstract: Much like a viral contagion, misinformation can spread rapidly from one mind to another. Moreover, once lodged in memory, falsehoods are difficult to correct. Inoculation theory offers a natural basis for developing a psychological ‘vaccine’ against the spread of fake news and misinformation. Specifically, in a series of lab and field studies, I’ll show that it is possible to pre-emptively “immunize” millions of people against disinformation about a wide range of topics by pre-exposing them to severely weakened doses of the techniques that underlie its production. This process of ‘prebunking’ helps people cultivate cognitive antibodies in both simulated and real social media environments. I’ll showcase several interventions we developed and evaluated—with public health authorities and technology companies—to help citizens around the world recognize and resist unwanted attempts to influence and mislead."
"Frederik Vilandt Rasmussen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-12-05";"14:00";"2025-12-05";"16:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Econometric Analysis of Events, Counts, and Duration Models";"Candidate: Frederik Vilandt Rasmussen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Econometric Analysis of Events, Counts, and Duration Models Supervisor: Anders Rahbek, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Alessandra Luati, Professor, Chair in Statistics, Imperial College London Leopoldo Catania, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Aarhus University Summary: This dissertation consists of four chapters. The first three chapters, co-authored with Giuseppe Cavaliere (University of Bologna, University of Exeter), Thomas Mikosch, and Anders Rahbek (University of Copenhagen), develop new asymptotic theory for likelihood-based estimators in autoregressive conditional duration models for (financial) durations. The fourth chapter, co-authored with Jonas Fiedler Frederiksen (University of Copenhagen), introduces a new asymmetric autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model for modeling conditional variances of financial returns: the Smooth Threshold ARCH (STARCH). This chapter establishes the stochastic properties of the STARCH model and provides asymptotic theory for the (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator. Chapter 1: Tail Behavior of ACD Models and Consequences for Likelihood-Based Estimation We establish new results for estimation and inference in financial durations models, where events are observed over a given time span, such as a trading day, or a week. For the classical autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by Engle and Russell (1998, Econometrica 66, 1127-1162), we show that the large sample behavior of likelihood estimators is highly sensitive to the tail behavior of the financial durations. In particular, even under stationarity, asymptotic normality breaks down for tail indices smaller than one or, equivalently, when the clustering behavior of the observed events is such that the unconditional distribution of the durations has no finite mean. Instead, we find that estimators are mixed Gaussian and have non-standard rates of convergence. The results are based on exploiting the crucial fact that for duration data the number of observations within any given time span is random. Our results apply to general econometric models where the number of observed events is random. Chapter 2: A Comment on: “Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data” Based on the GARCH literature, Engle and Russell (1998) established consistency and asymptotic normality of the QMLE for the autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, assuming strict stationarity and ergodicity of the durations. Using novel arguments based on renewal process theory, we show that their results hold under the stronger requirement that durations have finite expectation. However, we demonstrate that this is not always the case under the assumption of stationary and ergodic durations. Specifically, we provide a counterexample where the MLE is asymptotically mixed normal and converges at a rate significantly slower than usual. The main difference between ACD and GARCH asymptotics is that the former must account for the number of durations in a given time span being random. As a by-product, we present a new lemma which can be applied to analyze asymptotic properties of extremum estimators when the number of observations is random. Chapter 3: Beyond the Mean: Limit Theory and Tests for Infinite-Mean Autoregressive Conditional Durations Integrated autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models serve as natural counterparts to the well-known integrated GARCH models used for financial returns. However, despite their resemblance, asymptotic theory for ACD is challenging and also not complete, in particular for integrated ACD. Central challenges arise from the facts that (i) integrated ACD processes imply durations with infinite expectation, and (ii) even in the non-integrated case, conventional asymptotic approaches break down due to the randomness in the number of durations within a fixed observation period. Addressing these challenges, we provide here unified asymptotic theory for the (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator for ACD models; a unified theory which includes integrated ACD models. Based on the new results, we also provide a novel framework for hypothesis testing in duration models, enabling inference on a key empirical question: whether durations possess a finite or infinite expectation. We apply our results to high-frequency cryptocurrency ETF trading data. Motivated by parameter estimates near the integrated ACD boundary, we assess whether durations between trades in these markets have finite expectation, an assumption often made implicitly in the literature on point process models. Our empirical findings indicate infinite-mean durations for all the five cryptocurrencies examined, with the integrated ACD hypothesis rejected - against alternatives with tail index less than one – for four out of the five cryptocurrencies considered. Chapter 4: Smooth Threshold ARCH: Properties and Estimation Since the seminal work of Engle (1982), the ARCH model and its many extensions have become central tools in modeling financial volatility. Among these, the GJR model (Glosten, Jagannathan, and Runkle, 1993) is widely used due to its ability to capture leverage effects through its asymmetric specification of the news impact curve (NIC). Although asymmetric, the GJR imposes that volatility is minimized when returns are zero, i.e. that the NIC takes its minimum value at zero. We propose a new asymmetric ARCH model, the Smooth Threshold ARCH (STARCH), that nests the GJR, which (i) by introducing a threshold parameter allows a non-zero minimum point of the NIC, (ii) has a smooth NIC despite the threshold, and, as a biproduct, for which (iii) the quasi maximum likelihood estimator, which can be obtained without grid-search, is asymptotically normal at the standard root-n rate. Specifically, while the (Gaussian) log-likelihood is smooth enough to make estimation and inference standard, the second derivative is non-smooth. This requires non-standard arguments in the asymptotic analysis, for which we rely on conditions verified using empirical process theory. Applying our framework to large stock indices, we show that minimum point of the NIC is positive (and not zero)--providing empirical evidence for our new model. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Astrid Sophie Fugleholm defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2025-12-05";"14:00";"2025-12-05";"16:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 35, room 35.0.12, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Mental Health and How the Economy Cares";"Candidate: Astrid Sophie Fugleholm, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Mental Health and How the Economy Cares Supervisor: Torben Heien Nielsen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Mette Gørtz, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Mette Ejrnæs, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Fabrizio Mazzonna, Professor, Department of Economics, Università della Svizzera italiana Peter Rønø Thingholm, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Aarhus University Summary: The world is experiencing a mental health crisis. Understanding the sources of mental health deterioration and identifying potentially helpful policies is crucial for combating this crisis. My dissertation sheds light on this by exploring mental health from an economic perspective in three self-contained chapters. I evaluate reasons for mental health declines related to work and family life and why seemingly similar people receive different mental health treatments depending on their doctor. My findings highlight the importance of how the economy cares about mental health; factors such as night shift work, financial instability following spousal death, and the geographical distribution of physician specialists emerge as key determinants of individuals' mental health and their mental healthcare utilization. Chapter 1: Sources of Variation in Mental Healthcare Utilization With Jessica Laird and Torben Heien Nielsen In this chapter, we investigate the role of supply- and demand-side factors in driving mental healthcare utilization. Geographic variation in mental healthcare utilization reflects an equilibrium between supply-side factors (e.g., physician practice style) and demand-side factors (e.g., patient characteristics). Understanding the sources of this variation is essential for designing healthcare systems that are both efficient and equitable. We study the sources of variation in mental healthcare utilization, separating the role of demand- and supply-side factors by exploiting patient migration and local differences in access to generalists versus specialists. Using Danish data, we document wide variation in both mental healthcare use and the practice style of general practitioners (GPs), despite the context of a universal, publicly funded healthcare system. We show that a 1 percentage point increase in a GP’s rate of providing mental healthcare leads to an increase of .31 percentage points in an individual’s own use, with women and higher-educated individuals being more sensitive than men and less-educated. From this, we calculate that 21% of the total variation in GP practice style is due to causal GP effects. Finally, we show that both local market constraints, such as the supply of physician specialists, and individual physician characteristics, such as the GP’s age and gender, play an important role in shaping practice style. Chapter 2: Night Shift Work and Mental Health With Søren Skotte Bjerregaard In this chapter, we examine the mental health effects of multiple years of night shift work. Night shift work leads to inadequate sleep, which has been linked to impaired mental health. This raises a natural question: Do night shift workers suffer from poorer mental health? We examine the mental health effects of cumulative exposure to night shift work. We show that each additional year of night shift work increases the likelihood of redeeming prescriptions for mental health medication by 24%. While cumulative exposure to adverse working conditions can have more severe health consequences than temporary exposure, prior studies often underestimate these effects due to selection bias, commonly referred to as the ”healthy worker effect”; healthier workers are better equipped to remain in physically and mentally demanding jobs. We address this bias by applying a sequentially weighted matching (SWM) procedure to detailed time-stamp data from approximately 3,500 graduate nurses in Denmark, tracking their shift work schedules over six years and linking this to administrative records on their prescription medication use. Our results underscores the importance of accounting for the healthy worker effect when analyzing the health consequences of adverse working conditions and suggest that the mental health costs of night shift work may be substantially larger than previously estimated. This chapter is also a part of Søren Skotte Bjerregaard’s PhD dissertation. Chapter 3: Survivors’ Mental Health and the Protective Role of Income Stability With Itzik Fadlon and Torben Heien Nielsen In this chapter, we analyze the mental health effects of spousal death and the degree to which the financial loss imposed by the health shock is a driving factor beyond the bereavement itself. We use administrative records on the universe of Danish households to characterize survivors’ mental health following their spouse’s death. We provide visually clear evidence for the immediate, large, and lingering adverse impacts and focus on studying the role of income security in driving the immediate effects. We find that, for both males and females, a large share of the spike in the takeup of mental health medication upon spousal death can be explained by the income loss imposed by the shock. Our results imply that safety-net policies can improve survivors’ mental health via the immediate liquidity they provide. This chapter has been conditionally accepted for publication at The American Economic Review: Insights, August 2025. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Kathrin Schlafmann, CBS";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-12-08";"14:15";"2025-12-08";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Expectation and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Expectation and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy"" Abstract We document systematic differences in macroeconomic expectations across US households and rationalize our findings with a theory of information choice. We embed this theory into an incomplete-markets model with aggregate risk. Our model is quantitatively consistent with the pattern of expectation heterogeneity in the data. In comparison to a full-information counterpart, our model suggests substantially increased macroeconomic volatility and inequality. We show through a series of examples that neglecting the information channel can lead to erroneous conclusions about the effects of macroeconomic policies. While in the model without information choice, a wealth tax, for example, reduces wealth inequality, in our framework it reduces information acquired, leading to increased volatility and higher top-end inequality in equilibrium. For more information about Kathrin Schlafmann and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: John V. Kramer"
"Rune Majlund Vejlin, Aarhus University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2025-12-09";"13:15";"2025-12-09";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Unpacking the Wage Sorting Trend”. CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Unpacking the Wage Sorting Trend"" Abstract Using matched employer-employee data from Denmark's business sector, we project log wages onto worker and firm fixed effects and identify a wage sorting trend: the correlation between matched worker and firm fixed effects increased by 12 points from 1980-2019. This trend is entirely driven by shifts in employment from low- to high-sorting firms, with the employment dynamics of entering and exiting firms accounting for 60\% of the trend. Job-to-job changes boosted wage sorting in the 1980s and 1990s, while job-to-unemployment-to-job changes had smaller or negative effects. The wage sorting trend explains half of the increase in between-firm variance in residual wages and a third of the rise in the overall variance. Hence, our results link firm dynamics, firm entry and exit, and rising wage inequality. For more information about Rune Majlund Vejlin and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Robert Mahlstedt"
"Luca Regis, University of Torino";"Finance Research Unit (FRU)";"2025-12-10";"13:00";"2025-12-10";"14:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 35.2.01), 1353 Kbh K";"""Coordinating Bank Dividend and Capital Regulation"". FRU seminar";"""Coordinating Bank Dividend and Capital Regulation"" Abstract In this paper, we examine how dividend taxes (and bans) and capital requirements that vary with the state of the economy influence a bank’s optimal capital buffers and shareholder value. In the model, the bank distributes dividends and issues costly equity to maximise shareholder value, while its assets generate stochastic income under time varying macroeconomic conditions. We solve the bank’s stochastic control problem and derive the distribution of its capital buffers in closed form. Imposing dividend taxes (or bans) in bad macroeconomic states generates an intertemporal trade-off, as it encourages capital buffers accumulation in those states but promotes dividend payouts in the good ones. Furthermore, the policy undermines financial stability by reducing the bank’s value and weakening its incentives to recapitalise in both good and bad states. Coordinating dividend taxes with counter-cyclical capital requirements can mitigate value losses and ease the trade-off, but it also exacerbates disincentives for recapitalisation. Contact person: Stefan Voigt"
"SODAS Data Discussion 4 (Fall 2025)";"SODAS";"2025-12-12";"11:00";"2025-12-12";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Yani Kartalis and Tereza Blazkova for the Fall 2025 Data Discussion series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Yani Kartalis Title: Content Plurality in Greece's Fragmented Media System Abstract: This talk presents ongoing work on measuring content similarity and diversity in large-scale news corpora. Using a comprehensive dataset of online news from Greece, I explore how (mostly) embedding-based approaches could be used to compare news content across outlets while looking at the impact of ownership concentration. The focus is on open methodological questions rather than finalized results, including validation, scalability, and interpretation of similarity measures. I especially welcome feedback on how to move from pairwise content similarity to meaningful indicators of diversity and concentration and other potential visualization-based options. Discussion 2 Presenter: Tereza Blazkova Title: Participatory Design in Predictive Modeling for Student Success Abstract: Predictive algorithms are increasingly used in decision-making across domains, yet such systems are often developed without incorporating the perspectives of those who operate them or those directly affected. This gap risks producing tools that are misaligned with real-world needs and fail to support the individuals they are meant to serve. As a result, involving stakeholders in the design and audit of AI is emerging as an important tool for mitigating adverse implications of AI on society and pursuing a more positive impact through democratizing the development. In our study, we combine participatory design with participatory AI audit to develop a dropout prediction system in higher education that reflects stakeholders’ needs. This work-in-progress presentation will outline early modelling results based on data from more than 48,000 enrollments, and will describe the planned participatory workshop and its evaluation through a survey experiment. "
"Mathias Fjællegaard Jensen, University of Oxford (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2026-01-06";"13:30";"2026-01-06";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Intergenerational Mobility by Sexuality"". Job Market seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Intergenerational Mobility by Sexuality"" Abstract Existing research documents substantial disparities in life outcomes between same-sex and different-sex attracted individuals, typically disadvantaging same-sex attracted individuals. We analyse how parental background relates to adult children’s earnings, health, fertility, and family formation by sexuality. To do so, we develop a new strategy to identify same-sex couples in population-wide administrative data using joint financial commitments from Denmark. Our approach mitigates limitations associated with non-representative surveys and cross-sectional data on sexuality. We find that disparities in outcomes persist across the parental income distribution; (dis)advantages for same-sex attracted individuals are only partially mediated by parental income. We explore parent-child dynamics as potential mechanisms, including proximity to parents. Results are robust to controlling for unobserved parental heterogeneity through sibling fixed effects, but vary across childhood regions and cohorts. Our findings suggest that intergenerational mobility depends not only on factors shared by siblings but also on innate individual characteristics, such as sexuality. Contact person: Mette Ejrnæs "
"Morten Støstad, Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) - Job Market Seminar";"Department of Economics";"2026-01-07";"13:30";"2026-01-07";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Comparing Universes of Redistributive Arguments"". Job Market seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Comparing Universes of Redistributive Arguments"" Abstract We use natural language processing to classify all pro-redistributive speeches in the U.S. Congress and Norwegian Storting from 2015 to 2022, contrasting arguments based on fairness with those based on the negative societal consequences of inequality (inequality externalities). Fairness-based arguments are more emotional and divisive, whereas externality-based arguments appeal to logic and consensus. Externality arguments are two to five times more common in the Norwegian Storting. Experimentally elicited universes of arguments are similarly convincing to U.S. survey respondents, although a preference for fairness is linked to lower educational attainment across analyses. Our results establish the existence of two distinct ways to argue for redistribution, and provide a general framework for comparing the content and evaluations of arguments across domains. Contact person: Claus Thustrup Kreiner"
"Agustina Colonna, University of Zurich (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2026-01-08";"13:30";"2026-01-08";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Profit-Sharing, Wages, and Worker Compensation: Evidence from Mexico"". Job Market seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Profit-Sharing, Wages, and Worker Compensation: Evidence from Mexico"" Abstract Policies that encourage or mandate profit-sharing between firms and workers are widespread. Yet their effect on total worker compensation remains unclear when firms can offset profit-sharing benefits by adjusting wages. This paper studies firms’ incentives to adopt profit-sharing and provides new evidence on how firms adjust wages and employment in response to mandatory profit-sharing in Mexico. Leveraging longitudinal establishment data and employer-employee data, we observe that many firms circumvented mandated profit-sharing through outsourcing schemes, despite having the option to offer lower real wages. We then show that a reform that enforced profit-sharing caused newly complying establishments to only partially offset the cost of profit-sharing through real wage reductions, resulting in a 2.8% increase in average total compensation (wages + profit-sharing), with no effect on employment. These findings are consistent with a model in which labor supply is less responsive to profit-sharing than to wages: on average, one additional peso in wages attracts as many workers as three pesos in profit-sharing. Risk aversion to profit-sharing explains only 17% of workers’ limited responsiveness to this benefit. Instead, it is largely explained by information frictions that prevent workers from fully incorporating profit-sharing into their labor supply decisions. Our results shed light on the mechanisms shaping the incidence of profit-sharing and, more generally, of policies mandating non-wage compensation. Contact person: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon"
"Sevin Kaytan, CEMFI (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2026-01-12";"13:30";"2026-01-12";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"“The Long-term Effects of After-school Care”. Job Market seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Long-term Effects of After-school Care"" Abstract I investigate the long-term effects of after-school childcare on children's human capital investment. I exploit the timing and intensity of an after-school care reform in the Netherlands, and build a 20-year panel with administrative data to track affected cohorts from childhood through adulthood. I find that university graduation rates increased by 8%, with the strongest impact among students from less educated families. This effect stems from higher after-school care use rather than maternal employment responses, highlighting childhood environment as the key mechanism. I consider three potential channels: improved skills, stronger preferences for university, and shifting beliefs about returns to university. I find evidence supporting changes in preferences and beliefs as the main drivers, rather than skills. I show that the reform increased exposure to peers from high-SES families in after-school care, potentially driving these changes. Contact person: Meltem Daysal"
"Anders Yding, University of California, Berkeley (Job Market Seminar)";"Department of Economics";"2026-01-13";"13:30";"2026-01-13";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Macroeconomic Effects of Defense Spending News”. Job Market seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Macroeconomic Effects of Defense Spending News"" Abstract We estimate the macroeconomic effects of government spending by constructing a new series of defense spending surprises using a high-frequency identification approach. We identify events in the U.S. federal budget process that reveal news about defense spending, focusing on dates when different versions of defense appropriations bills are passed in the House or the Senate. We then quantify the defense spending surprise associated with each event using daily stock returns of large U.S. defense contractors. A positive defense spending surprise predicts a persistent increase in future defense spending that is entirely passed through to total government spending. On average, the identified spending increases are financed with a combination of taxes and debt, and are met with a muted monetary policy response. We estimate the dynamic causal effects of defense spending and find sizable increases in output and consumption. Our estimates imply a cumulative fiscal multiplier—the cumulative output response divided by the cumulative spending response—of 1.2 over a five-year horizon. Our results indicate that government spending stimulates (“crowds in”) economic activity in the private sector. A standard heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model can match our empirical evidence. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Nikolaj Moll Lund defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-01-22";"13:00";"2026-01-22";"15:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays in Structural Demand Estimation.";"Candidate: Nikolaj Moll Lund, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays in Structural Demand Estimation Supervisors: Bertel Schjerning, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Mogens Fosgerau, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Thomas Høgholm Jørgensen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Pedro Mira, Professor, Department of Economics, CEMFI Helena Perrone, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Finance, TBS Business School Summary: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters. The first chapter – co-authored with Anders Munk-Nielsen and Bertel Schjerning – proposes a new estimator, Direct Dynamic Regression, for single-agent dynamic discrete choice models – a workhorse model within economics when consumer demand has a dynamic component. The estimator relies on the fact that the logarithm of the denominator of the conditional choice probabilities and the integrated value functions are equivalent within the considered model class. The key contribution of this estimator is its simplicity and ease of implementation, since both structural parameters and integrated value functions can be estimated jointly by a least squares procedure at a modest efficiency loss. The chapter compares the proposed estimator against existing alternatives in a Monte Carlo simulation and on empirical data, highlighting benefits and limitations, and suggests extensions. The second chapter – co-authored with Frederik Brandt and Jonas Slaathaug Hansen – considers the empirical properties of a newly proposed demand model, the Inverse Product Differentiation Logit model, against the current state-of-the-art models in the literature, by comparing them in an empirical application to the Danish car market for new cars. Our analysis shows that the Inverse Product Differentiation Logit provide flexible, but differing substitution patterns in comparison to competing models at great computational gains. We then apply these models to evaluate a major reform of the car taxation system in Denmark, demonstrating that these differences in substitution patterns lead to divergent counterfactual predictions. The third chapter – co-authored with Maximilian Blesch, Kenneth Gillingham, Jonas Slaathaug Hansen, Fedor Iskhakov, Anders Munk-Nielsen, John Rust, and Bertel Schjerning – considers the interplay between the new and used car markets through a structural model incorporating both forward-looking consumers and endogenous equilibrium prices. By modeling how consumers interact across both markets, we explore how the price-setting of firms is affected by the presence of the secondary market. A key finding in this chapter is that the price sensitivity of consumers, that is, how strongly a consumer’s demand responds to a change in a given new car price, is closely connected to how the consumer responds to prices in the used car market. This directly affects the pricing power of car-producing firms, and therefore has implications for how such markets should be regulated. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Farzad Saidi, University of Bonn ";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-02-10";"13:15";"2026-02-10";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";" “Aging at the Very Top” . CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Aging at the Very Top"" Abstract We document that since 2000 U.S. CEOs are on average 7 to 8 years older upon appointment. Using employment history data from BoardEx and LinkedIn, we show that this development is driven by later appointments and a greater variety of prior work experiences. We hypothesize that these trends reflect a shift toward generalist skills. Using exogenous variation in the proximity to strategy consulting firms and their employees, we show that firms increase their demand for generalist skills in response to greater industry-level uncertainty and complexity, and subsequently appoint older CEOs when generalist consultants are not readily available. Our results also indicate that prospective CEOs strategically respond to these evolving skill requirements. Exploiting the network structure resulting from employment histories, we demonstrate that job mobility increases in response to positive information shocks about the value of job transitions. In particular, workers are more likely to accept positions at lower seniority levels at other firms, reflecting that they are willing to sacrifice short-run wage growth for the longer-run purpose of acquiring generalist skills. Co-authors: Valentin Kecht and Alessandro Lizzeri For more information about Farzad Saidi and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Daniel le Maire "
"Jacob Adenbaum, University of Edinburgh";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-02-16";"14:15";"2026-02-16";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Learning on the Job”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics. ";"“Learning on the Job” Abstract What are the sources of worker learning within the firm? How much of a worker’s human capital growth comes from firm specific factors, such as the learning environment, as opposed to their own ability, and the composition of their coworkers? In this paper, we introduce a novel labor search model with multi-worker firms, learning from coworkers, and heterogeneity in learning-by-doing rates that can vary at the worker and firm level. Despite its complexity, we show that it is possible to solve such a model by leveraging recent advances from the machine learning literature. We use French administrative data to discipline the parameters of the model, specifically by targeting how wage growth varies across workers, firms, and the distribution of coworker wages. With the calibrated model in hand we perform a series of structural and statistical decompositions to test how much of the variance of human capital growth is driven by learning from coworkers and by heterogeneous learning-by-doing, and find that learning from coworkers is the dominant source of learning in the economy. Switching off learning from coworkers lowers human capital and wages by more than 25%, and differences in the composition of coworkers accounts for more than 50% of the variance of human capital growth rates. For more information about Jacob Adenbaum and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Manuel Menkhoff "
"Chen Huang, Aarhus University";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-02-19";"11:00";"2026-02-19";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Arellano-Bond LASSO Estimator for Dynamic Linear Panel Models"". Seminar arranged by ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Arellano-Bond LASSO Estimator for Dynamic Linear Panel Models"" Abstract The Arellano-Bond estimator is a fundamental method for dynamic panel data models, widely used in practice. It can be severely biased when the time series dimension of the data, $T$, is long. The source of the bias is the large degree of overidentification. We propose a simple two-step approach to deal with this problem. The first step applies LASSO to the cross-section data at each time period to select the most informative moment conditions, exploiting the approximately sparse structure of these conditions. The second step applies a linear instrumental variable estimator using the instruments constructed from the moment conditions selected in the first step. Using asymptotic sequences where the two dimensions of the panel grow with the sample size, we show that the new estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal under much weaker conditions on $T$ than the Arellano-Bond estimator. Our theory covers models with high dimensional covariates including multiple lags of the dependent variable, which are common in modern applications. We illustrate our approach by applying it to weekly county-level panel data from the United States to study opening K-12 schools and other mitigation policies' short and long-term effects on COVID-19's spread. Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen"
"SODAS Lecture with Matthew J. Salganik";"SODAS";"2026-02-20";"11:00";"2026-02-20";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, 1.1.02";"SODAS is delighted to host Matthew J. Salganik from Princeton University!";"Title: Life trajectories and life chances: New approaches from population registries and AIAbstract: How do life trajectories evolve over time, across domains, and in context? How much do birth circumstances constrain where people end up? I will describe two works in progress that address these classic questions with new approaches, using rich, population-scale registry data from the Netherlands and inspired by new AI methods. First, to study how life trajectories evolve, we develop the ""book of life"" approach, which represents life course data as a textual narrative - rather than as a vector of numbers. Then, we fine-tune an open-weight large-language model (LLM) on millions of these narratives in order to predict life outcomes, such as having a child. This approach opens new possibilities in life course research, including probabilistic prediction of sequences of life events across domains. Second, we ask: how much do birth circumstances constrain life outcomes? Using 200,000 twin pairs who share birth circumstances — everything measured and unmeasured about family, social position, and historical timing — we estimate how much of life is determined at birth versus shaped by what comes after. This approach also reveals fundamental limits to prediction, no matter how sophisticated the model or complete the data. I'll conclude by discussing how rich registry data and new AI methods can bridge computational social science and biomedical research."
"Jacob Marott Sundram defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-02-23";"10:30";"2026-02-23";"12:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: International Macroeconomic Policies With Heterogeneity.";"Candidate: Jacob Villeza Marott Sundram, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: International Macroeconomic Policies With Heterogeneity Supervisors: Søren Hove Ravn, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Jeppe Druedahl, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Morten Graugaard Olsen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Axelle Ferriere, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Sciences Po Benjamin Born, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Bonn Summary: In our globalized world, an economic shift on the other side of the planet often matters just as much for us as what happens in our own country. Despite this, many policymakers and economists are most focused on what happens at home. In my PhD thesis, I study how the global macroeconomy affects the domestic economy. This involves answering questions such as: What happens if our biggest trade partner experiences a recession? And what happens if the global financial hegemon increases interest rates? My research addresses these questions from a macroeconomic perspective, reflecting what happens on average in the domestic economy. But averages may hide nuance. Perhaps the answer to the questions depends on whether you work in manufacturing, which sells a significant amount abroad, or if you hold stocks in firms in the financial hegemon. For this reason, my thesis puts a special emphasis on how different people are affected. This reveals that while some international development might be “good” on average, a significant number of people would prefer that it did not happen. Thus, my thesis studies some of the most traditional questions in macroeconomics but emphasizes the importance of taking seriously aspects that economics, as a field, has historically understated. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"CANCELLED! Galo Nuno, Banco de España";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-02-23";"14:15";"2026-02-23";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Monetary Policy with Supply Regimes”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Monetary Policy with Supply Regimes"" Abstract This paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with supply regimes - periods of persistently higher costs due to tariffs, wars, or geopolitical fragmentation. We compute the optimal policy globally using deep learning. Under commitment, the central bank tolerates temporary inflation without reversing past price increases. Under discretion, high-cost regimes generate an inflationary bias, as they create incentives for monetary stimulus that raise inflation expectations. Standard Taylor rules fail to stabilize long-run inflation because regime shifts alter the natural rate. We further extend the analysis to state-dependent pricing. Co-authors: Philipp Renner (University of Lancaster) and Simon Scheidegger (University of Lausanne) For more information about Galo Nuno and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "
"CANCELLED! Gregor Boehl, University of Bonn";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-02-25";"13:15";"2026-02-25";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""HANK on Speed - Director's Cut: What the Paper Doesn't Say"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""HANK on Speed - Director's Cut: What the Paper Doesn't Say"" Abstract This is abstract of the original paper: Building on automatic differentiation, I propose a robust and efficient solution method for perfect-foresight transition dynamics in heterogeneous agent models with many aggregate equations. Compared with existing methods, it allows to capture strong nonlinearities, including, e.g., occasionally binding constraints, and dynamics that deviate significantly from the steady state. A powerful and user friendly open-source reference implementation is provided, which efficiently computes nonlinear solutions to the canonical HANK model within seconds, including the transition dynamics of the full distribution. I challenge this method by studying a permanent shift in redistribution policy in a medium-scale two-asset HANK model featuring many aggregate frictions. The results indicate that, as firms seek to deplete their capital stock, the transition path is characterized by a prolonged deflationary episode, the severity of which depends on the interaction between nonlinear constraints, such as the interest rate lower bound and downward nominal wage rigidity. For more information about Gregor Boehl and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "
"SODAS Data Discussion 1 (Spring 2026)";"SODAS";"2026-02-27";"11:00";"2026-02-27";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Jason W. Burton and Moritz Johanning for the Spring 2026 Data Discussion series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Jason W. Burton Title: Stated Versus Revealed Preferences in Online Content Consumption Abstract: People’s exposure to content online is often shaped by engagement-optimizing recommender systems that purport to show users the content they want and value. On social media platforms, for example, recommender systems typically predict which posts a user is likely to engage with (e.g., by “liking” or dwelling on a post) and then promote those posts in the user’s news feed. Central to this engagement optimization is the assumption that users’ actions reveal the kind of content they want. However, revealed preferences, inferred from users’ engagement behavior, often diverge from stated preferences users explicitly report when asked. Critics argue that by privileging revealed preference, recommender systems cater to myopic impulses rather than deliberative, long-term aspirations and wellbeing. Yet, relatively little is known about when discrepancies between stated and revealed preferences might arise in online environments and which psychological constructs, traits, and mechanisms might explain such discrepancies. In this talk, I present an experimental design and analysis plan to test whether and to what extent different psychological factors associate with discrepancies between stated and revealed preferences in content consumption within a simulated social media environment. Discussion 2 Presenter: Moritz Johanning Title: Under the Neighborhood: Why Your Next-Door Neighbor Matters Most Abstract: The neighborhood is a fundamental concept in social and geospatial data analysis. However, empirical studies diverge on what constitutes a neighborhood. In this talk, I argue for modeling neighborhoods as networks of individuals rather than bounded spatial units. Combining this definition with fine-grained Danish registry data, I present descriptive evidence that similarity between neighbors decays sharply with proximity. Similarity is highest among immediate next-door neighbors and declines sharply with neighbor rank. This micro-local clustering is not detectable in standard aggregate measures of neighborhoods. The second part of the presentation addresses the causal challenge of disentangling this micro-level sorting into peer influence and residential sorting. I outline a research design to identify these dynamics and present initial findings as well as planned next steps in this project."
"Alina Bartscher, Frankfurt School of Finance & Management";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-03-02";"14:15";"2026-03-02";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Causal Effects of Interest Rate Beliefs on Firm Decisions and Their Aggregate Implications”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Causal Effects of Interest Rate Beliefs on Firm Decisions and Their Aggregate Implications"" Abstract We study firms' financial and real decisions after an exogenous change in their interest rate beliefs induced by a survey experiment with an information treatment. Firms revise their expectations downward after learning about the European Central Bank's policy rate. Moreover, we find a reduction in interest rate uncertainty. We link the survey to credit register data and find that treated firms both increase their loan amounts and shift their loan structure toward longer-term, fixed-rate credit with lower interest rates. Using balance sheet data, we also show that treated firms invest more following the RCT. These effects are driven by small firms. We rationalize our findings in a stylized model of firms with imperfect information about the interest rate. Co-authors: Georg Duernecker, Johannes Goensch, and Nils Wehrhöfer For more information about Alina Bartscher and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Manuel Menkhoff"
"Martin Wolf, University of St. Gallen";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-03-09";"14:15";"2026-03-09";"15:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""Industrial Policies, Global Imbalances and Technological Hegemony"" . Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Industrial Policies, Global Imbalances and Technological Hegemony"" Abstract We provide a framework that connects industrial policies to global imbalances and technological hegemony, and describe some empirical facts consistent with our model. We study the international spillovers triggered by industrial policies promoting high-tech sectors. Since high-tech goods and services are typically traded internationally, these policies boost the supply of tradable goods. Moreover, industrial policies lead to trade surpluses if the government pursues an unbalanced policy mix, such that domestic demand does not rise as much as supply. These surpluses are absorbed by the rest of the world, which in response runs trade deficits. Absent policy interventions, trade deficits reduce the competitiveness of the domestic tradable sector, stifling innovation and productivity growth. Innovation policies can help the rest of the world to mitigate these negative spillovers. Joint with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Andrea Ferrero, and Luca Fornaro. For more information about Martin Wolf and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "
"SODAS Lecture with Mario L. Small";"SODAS";"2026-03-13";"11:00";"2026-03-13";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Mario L. Small from Columbia University!";"Title: The Data Revolution and the Study of Social Inequality: Promise and Perils Abstract: The social sciences are in the midst of a revolution in access to data, as governments and private companies have accumulated vast digital records of rapidly multiplying aspects of our lives. The availability of such large-scale data has undergirded the spread of computational social science. How will the data revolution affect the study of social inequality? I argue that while the availability of large-scale data promises a dramatic transformation in the questions we can answer, this promise has been undercut by size-induced blindness, the tendency to ignore important limitations amidst a source with millions or billions of data points. Among the problems caused by such blindness, I identify selection, lamp-posting, algorithmic confounding, and unobserved influence. I present examples and discuss possible solutions. Mario L. Small, Ph.D., is Quetelet Professor of Social Science at Columbia University. A University of Bremen Excellence Chair, and an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Academy of Political and Social Sciences, and the Sociological Research Association, Small has published award-winning articles and books on urban inequality, personal networks, and the relationship between qualitative and quantitative methods. Small is currently studying the relationship between networks and decision-making, the ability of large-scale data to answer critical questions about urban inequality, and the relation between qualitative and quantitative methods."
"Talk by Francesco Pierri";"SODAS";"2026-03-20";"11:00";"2026-03-20";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Francesco Pierri on March 20!";" Abstract The rapid rise of generative AI has sparked both widespread excitement and significant concerns. Advances in large language models and the emergence of AI-powered search engines are transforming how information is produced, accessed, and interpreted in digital environments. While these technologies enable powerful applications, including the simulation of complex digital phenomena, they also introduce serious risks such as large-scale misinformation, disinformation campaigns, and targeted attacks. This talk examines these challenges and emphasizes the need to safeguard AI–human interactions online through trustworthy, transparent, and well-governed AI systems. Bio Francesco Pierri is an Assistant Professor in the Data Science Lab within the Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering (DEIB) at Politecnico di Milano. He is also affiliated with Indiana University Bloomington’s Observatory on Social Media (OSOME) and has been a Visiting Scholar at the University of Southern California’s Information Sciences Institute. His research focuses on Responsible AI at the intersection of artificial intelligence and computational social science, with particular emphasis on how generative AI is reshaping digital ecosystems. He studies misinformation, AI-powered search engines, and human–AI interactions, developing data-driven approaches to support trustworthy and accountable AI-mediated platforms."
"Jacob R. Bøggild Strabo defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-03-24";"13:30";"2026-03-24";"15:30";"Regensen, Store Sal, Store Kannikestræde 2, 1169 København K";"The title of the dissertation is: Some Thoughts on the Distribution of Talent. ";"Candidate: Jacob Richard Bøggild Strabo, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Some Thoughts on the Distribution of Talent Supervisor: Peter Norman Sørensen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Birthe Larsen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School Ian Jewitt, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Economics, Nuffield College, University of Oxford Summary: This dissertation studies how talent is allocated in key institutional domains such as education, labour markets, migration, and political elections. It consists of four self-contained chapters that examine the incentives and constraints shaping access to opportunities. Each chapter focusses on how individual characteristics interact with institutional rules and decisions to determine economic and social outcomes. Together, the studies provide new evidence and theoretical insight into how societies can design institutions that more effectively identify, allocate, and reward talent. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"SODAS Data Discussion 2 (Spring 2026)";"SODAS";"2026-03-27";"11:00";"2026-03-27";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Jo Lukito and Jeanet Sinding Bentzen for the Spring 2026 Data Discussion series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Jo Lukito Title: Data Access and Digital Media Research Epistemology in a Post-Post API Age Abstract: For the past two decades, computational social scientists experienced a “golden age” of platform-provided data access, particularly from social media such as Twitter (now X). However, in recent years, we have reached the “post-API” age, a period of time where researchers must find alternative mechanisms for accessing digital media data (including, but not limited to, scraping, data donations, and web tracking methods). While unfortunate in some ways, these changes in data access norms also creates an opportunity to build a more sustainable, robust data access regime. In this context, the talk will provide an overview of current data access mechanisms, its epistemological consequences, and a possible “post-post API age” facilitated by new policies such as Article 40 of the the Digital Services Act. Discussion 2 Presenter: Jeanet Sinding Bentzen Title: Religion's Role in Society: Insights from Millions of Tax Statements Abstract: Religion is not just a private matter. It remains deeply embedded in public life, influencing access to abortion, international missions, and pre-school activities, for instance. We document this using full-count administrative data from IRS filings for nonprofit organizations covering tax years 2009–2023. Our analysis reveals multiple patterns. First, while explicitly religious domains—such as churches and faith-based congregations—are almost entirely religious, we also uncover a significant religious footprint in areas typically perceived as secular, including international aid, pregnancy-related services, and early childhood education. For example, religious pregnancy organizations emphasize crisis support with faith-based language, whereas secular counterparts focus on reproductive healthcare and access. Second, religious philanthropy is primarily oriented toward human beneficiaries, whereas secular organizations are more likely to extend their efforts to environmental protection, wildlife, and animal welfare. Third, these differences are more pronounced in mission statements than in organization names, suggesting that underlying values may not be immediately visible from surface identifiers. Taken together, our findings provide a new, large-scale perspective on how religion shapes the goals, language, and scope of nonprofit activity in the United States. By leveraging advances in machine learning and text analysis, this study highlights the pervasive yet often subtle ways in which religion continues to influence civic life across a wide range of domains."
"Mads Rahbek Jørgensen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-03-27";"13:00";"2026-03-27";"15:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays on Household Finance.";"Candidate: Mads Rahbek Jørgensen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays on Household Finance Supervisors: Asger Lau Andersen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Niels Johannesen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Louise Aggerstrøm Hansen, Chief Analyst, Danske Bank Assessment Committee: Amalie Sofie Jensen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Roine Vestman, Professor, Department of Economics, Stockholm University Andreas Fagereng, Professor, Department of Finance, BI Norwegian Business School Summary: This dissertation examines households’ consumption behavior using high-frequency transactional data from Danske Bank. It consists of three chapters. The first chapter studies how the tightness of liquidity constraints shaped households’ responses to a fiscal stimulus policy in Denmark in 2020, which converted illiquid wealth into liquid wealth available for consumption. The second chapter revisits the retirement consumption puzzle and examines how households’ spending responds to retirement. The third chapter focuses on how households with adjustable-rate mortgages responded to rising interest rates in 2022, and whether their responses were guided by current mortgage payments or by expectations about future mortgage payments. Chapter 1: Fiscal Stimulus and Liquidity Constraint Tightness Evidence from High-Frequency Transactional Data This chapter examines household consumption responses to a unique fiscal stimulus policy in Denmark that temporarily allowed withdrawals from illiquid accounts in October and November of 2020. Using granular transaction and account-level data from the country’s largest retail bank, I estimate marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) and analyze heterogeneity in spending behavior. The aggregate MPC out of withdrawn funds is modest, 11.1% within eight weeks after payout. This muted effect reflects the policy’s design, which concentrated large payouts among high-income households with ample liquidity. Households facing tight liquidity constraints exhibit MPCs exceeding 40%, while unconstrained households show MPCs near 6%. Stratified analyses confirm that liquidity constraint tightness, rather than income, age, or payout size, drives heterogeneity in spending responses. These findings underscore the central role of liquidity constraints in shaping consumption responses to transitory shocks and highlight the importance of targeting in fiscal policy design if the aim is to maximize effects on short-run aggregate demand. Chapter 2: The Retirement Consumption Puzzle Revisited New Evidence on an Old Conundrum The retirement consumption puzzle, the observed decline in household spending at retirement, poses a challenge to the life-cycle hypothesis, which predicts smooth consumption over predictable life events. Numerous studies across countries relying on linear regression or fixed effects model report spending drops at retirement. However, recent evidence using regression discontinuity designs find no decline in spending when retirement coincides with statutory retirement ages. This raises questions about the underlying mechanisms behind the observed declines in spending. This chapter revisits the puzzle using high-frequency transactional data from Danish households. The analysis replicates previous findings in the literature. Estimates from linear and fixed effects models indicate a decline in spending at retirement among Danish retirees. Estimates from a regression discontinuity approach exploiting the discontinuity in retirement status at Denmark’s statutory retirement age show no effect of retirement on spending. Further investigation reveals that spending declines occur primarily among households retiring outside the statutory retirement age, often involuntarily, and are concentrated among those with low wealth and large income losses at retirement. These findings reconcile conflicting results in the literature and highlights the importance of distinguishing between planned and unplanned retirement transitions. The evidence show that the puzzle is not intrinsic to retirement itself but reflects financial vulnerability and shocks associated with involuntary retirement. This nuance has important implications for assessing retirement preparedness and designing targeted policy interventions addressing inadequate pension savings. Chapter 3: Consumption Responses to Rising Mortgage Rates Unpacking the Cash-Flow Channel of Monetary Policy Co-authored with Asger Lau Andersen, Andreas Jakobsen, and Niels Johannesen How do households with adjustable-rate mortgages respond to rising interest rates, and are the responses guided by current mortgage payments or by expectations about future mortgage payments? This chapter uses granular customer data from the largest bank in Denmark to address these questions in the context of the dramatic rise in interest rates in the first half of 2022. First, to identify the effect of current payments, we compare two highly similar groups of households who – due to decisions made five-ten years earlier – differ in the timing of interest rate reset on their adjustable-rate mortgages. We find that the two groups remain on parallel spending trajectories when one group – and not the other – experiences a sharp increase in interest payments. Our estimates suggest that each additional dollar of current mortgage payments reduces spending by only 1 cent and that liquid buffers absorb the vast majority of the increased expenditure. Second, to identify the effect of expectations about future payments, we compare a treatment group of households with adjustable-rate mortgages to a control group with fixed-rate mortgages. We focus on spending behavior in the pre-reset period where market expectations about future rates are increasing, but current mortgage payments are unchanged. During this period, the treatment group – who is exposed to a future interest reset – reduces spending differentially compared to the control group, who is not. Our estimates suggest that each additional dollar of expected future mortgage payments reduces current spending by more than 15 cents. Overall, the evidence is consistent with forward-looking households who reduce spending and increase the savings rate in anticipation of future increases in their mortgage payments and use liquid buffers to smooth spending. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Sarah Lein, University of Basel";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-04-08";"13:15";"2026-04-08";"14_30";"University of Copenhagen (room TBA), Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Labor supply elasticities: Evidence from cross-border workers”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Labor supply elasticities: Evidence from cross-border workers"" Abstract This paper studies how workers adjust their labour supply in response to a permanent increase in real wages. We exploit a sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc that raised the real income of cross border workers who earn wages in CHF but consume in EUR by roughly 10 percent. Using detailed administrative micro data, we compare these workers to otherwise similar employees within the same firm, occupation, and observable characteristics who both earn and consume in CHF. This within firm identification strategy isolates the effect of the exchange rate induced real wage change from confounding factors. We document that cross border workers adjust their labour supply significantly relative to their Swiss resident counterparts, providing direct evidence on labour supply elasticities with respect to permanent real wage shocks. Our findings contribute to the understanding of income effects and the role of consumption currency in shaping labour market behaviour. For more information about Sarah Lein and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn "
"Chryssi Giannitsarou, University of Cambridge";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-04-13";"13:15";"2026-04-13";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“The Investment Channel of Monetary Policy when Managers Have Skin in the Game”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""The Investment Channel of Monetary Policy when Managers Have Skin in the Game"" Abstract We examine how stock-based compensation and the resulting managerial stock ownership affect firm investment decisions and the transmission of monetary policy. Using data from Compustat and ExecuComp covering over 3,000 U.S. listed firms from 1992 to 2023, we employ local projections to estimate dynamic responses to monetary policy surprises. Our empirical findings reveal that higher managerial stock ownership significantly amplifies firms’ investment responses to monetary policy shocks. This responsiveness is primarily driven by stock options rather than direct stock holdings, with estimated effects of 25 basis point expansionary monetary policy surprises increasing cumulative investment rates by 0.58 and 0.88 percentage points at median and average ownership levels respectively. To provide theoretical support for these empirical findings, we develop a parsimonious model featuring agency frictions between managers and shareholders, where managerial compensation includes both stock and option components. The model predictions align with our empirical results, generating a stronger response in the presence of options rather than stocks. For more information about Chryssi Giannitsarou and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "
"Jiti Gao, Monasch University";"ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) ";"2026-04-13";"15:00";"2026-04-13";"17:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Unified Estimation in Time-Varying Models"". Seminar arranged by ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) ";"""Unified Estimation in Time-Varying Models"" Abstract This paper proposes time varying models in which unknown parameters may vary stochastically or deterministically over time or as a mixture of both. These novel features are distinct from existing formulations which typically separate stochastic and deterministic time variation. Estimation methods for the former often rely on Bayesian resampling algorithms whereas nonparametric estimation methods are usually employed for fitting unknown deterministic functional forms. The present work develops instead a unified approach using orthonormal series specially designed to estimate time variation irrespective of whether it is stochastic or deterministic. The proposed approach has wide applicability for both linear and nonlinear time series models and relevance in modeling data where general trend specifications are desirable. Limit theory for valid inference concerning the time varying structures is established. A notable outcome is that stochastic trend parameter evolution can be estimated with asymptotic validity and fast rates of convergence. Other advantages include flexibility and convenience in practical implementation. Simulations are reported on finite sample performance and the procedures are illustrated in several real data examples. Contact person: Anders Rahbek"
"Ioana Marinescu, University of Pennsylvania";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-04-14";"13:15";"2026-04-14";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“(Artificial) Intelligence saturation and the future of work"". CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""(Artificial) Intelligence saturation and the future of work"" Abstract Macroeconomic models typically treat AI as just another form of capital and predict a slowly evolving world, while computer science scaling laws applied to the whole economy predict explosive growth and the potential for a singularity-like event. Both views gloss over the asymmetric reality that intelligence capital or AI scales at computer-science speeds, whereas physical capital and labor do not. What’s missing is a unified, parameter-driven framework that can nest assumptions from both economics and computer science to generate meaningful predictions of AI’s wage and output impacts. Here we use a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function framework that separates physical and intelligence sectors. Whereas physical capabilities let us affect the world, intelligence capabilities let us do this as well: The two are complementary. Given complementarity between the two sectors, the marginal returns to intelligence saturate, no matter how fast AI scales. Because the price of AI capital is falling much faster than that of physical capital, intelligence tasks are automated first, pushing human labor toward the physical sector. The impact of automation on wages is theoretically ambiguous and can be non-monotonic in the degree of automation. A necessary condition for automation to decrease wages is that the share of employment in the intelligence sector decreases; this condition is not sufficient because automation can raise output enough to offset negative reallocation effects. In our baseline simulation, wages increase and then decrease with automation. Our interactive tool shows how parameter changes shift that trajectory. Wage decreases are steeper at high levels of automation when the outputs of the physical and intelligence sectors are more substitutable. After full automation, more AI and more physical capital increase wages, a classic prediction from standard production functions in capital and labor. Yet, when intelligence and physical are complementary, the marginal wage impact of AI capital saturates as AI grows large. More broadly, the model offers a structured way to map contrasting intuitions from economics and computer science into a shared parameter space, enabling clearer policy discussions and guiding empirical work to identify which growth and wage trajectories are plausible. Co-author: Konrad Kording. For more information about Ioana Marinescu and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Daphné Skandalis"
"SODAS Lecture with Lena Frischlich";"SODAS";"2026-04-17";"11:00";"2026-04-17";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Lena Frischlich from SDU!";"Title: The complexity of misinformation - between political ruptures, digital opportunity structures, and individual resilience Abstract: In an age of generative AI, poly-crises, and global political elites that care very little about evidence-based communication, the impact of mis- and strategic disinformation has become a growing concern. The Global Economic Forum rated it as the most significant global risk for 2025–20261, and others calling it a substantial threat to democracies, a virus or intensified information warfare. Yet, others argue that the threats of misinformation are misunderstood, and that dramatic warnings have more severe consequences than misinformation itself. We recently suggested that to understand misinformation dynamics and account for it, we must account for the complex system through which misinformation perpetuates and move beyond simple analogies that conceptualize misinformation as a ""virus"" or ""weapon in the information warfare"". In the talk, I will present insights from a just finished project in which we studied (a) which aspects of the complex system of misinformation gained most attention in the scientific literature so far through a scoping review; (b) where suggested and recently implemented interventions against misinformation are mostly situated in this framework (and which gaps remain); and (c) conducted a large conjoint experiment in which we studied citizens preferences for interventions to foster democratic resilience beyond the individual level - and how these preferences vary as a function of citizens' susceptibility to misinformation. "
"Ida Maria Hartmann defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-04-17";"14:00";"2026-04-17";"16:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Perceived Uncertainty and Economic Behavior.";"Candidate: Ida Maria Hartmann, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Perceived Uncertainty and Economic Behavior Supervisors: Søren Leth-Petersen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Mette Ejnæs, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Jonas Maibom, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University Pamela Giustinelli, Associate Professor, Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova Summary: Economic life is inherently uncertain, yet individuals differ markedly in how they perceive and respond to this uncertainty. This dissertation investigates how subjective perceptions of risk and unpredictability shape economic behavior and contribute to inequality over the life course. The first two chapters examine how individuals form and update expectations about unemployment risk and how these beliefs influence financial decisions and labor market behavior, while the third chapter studies how perceived childhood unpredictability predicts later educational outcomes. Combining survey-elicited beliefs with rich administrative data, the dissertation highlights how perceptions of uncertainty are formed, revised, and translated into behavior. Overall, it demonstrates that subjective uncertainty is a central mechanism linking environments, beliefs, and persistent differences in economic outcomes. Chapter 1: Subjective Unemployment Expectations and (Self-)Insurance with Søren Leth-Petersen In this chapter, we study subjective unemployment expectations and their influence on economic behavior. We utilize a longitudinal data set combining survey elicited subjective unemployment expectations with administrative data on income, savings, and unemployment insurance. Our findings indicate that subjective expectations hold valuable predictive information about subsequent unemployment experiences. We find that individuals tend to overestimate their risk of unemployment. Moreover, higher unemployment expectations lead to a greater likelihood of enrolling in unemployment insurance and accumulation of liquid savings. Chapter 2: Subjective Unemployment Expectations and Precautionary Behavior in the Shadow of Peer Job Loss In this chapter, I examine whether individuals’ subjective unemployment expectations and self-insurance behavior are related to unemployment experiences within their social networks. Using survey-elicited expectations combined with Danish administrative data, I document three main findings. First, peer job loss strongly predicts individuals’ future unemployment risk, even after controlling for fixed effects and prior outcomes, suggesting that peer unemployment reflects latent labor market conditions. Second, subjective unemployment expectations respond to recent unemployment among peers, particularly for individuals with little personal experience. Third, peer job loss exposure is associated with precautionary behavior, including higher take-up of private unemployment insurance and increased transitions to lower-turnover jobs. Chapter 3: When Childhood Feels Unpredictable: Educational Consequences of Early-Life Instability with Andrew Caplin, Nora Harhen, Cate Hartley, Søren Leth-Petersen, and Johan Sæverud In this chapter, we propose that perceived unpredictability captures a common latent dimension through which diverse, adverse childhood experiences shape academic outcomes. Using a nationally representative survey of young adults in Denmark linked to population-wide administrative data, we study how perceived childhood unpredictability affects educational attainment, distinguishing between objectively measured childhood disruptions and the child's experience of unpredictability. While several individual disruptions are negatively associated with educational outcomes when examined in isolation, their explanatory power diminishes once they are modeled jointly. In contrast, perceived unpredictability strongly predicts poorer academic performance and remains a robust predictor after controlling for levels of resources and a rich set of administratively recorded childhood disruptions. Our findings suggest that how predictable childhood life feels to the child captures an underlying dimension of early-life environments that helps explain the persistence of educational inequality. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Omar Rachedi, Esade Business School";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-04-20";"13:15";"2026-04-20";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“The Carbon-Adjusted Fiscal Multiplier”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""The Carbon-Adjusted Fiscal Multiplier"" Abstract Public spending affects not only output but also greenhouse gas emissions, thereby influencing the environment. To this end, we extend the concept of the fiscal multiplier by introducing the carbon adjustment: the dollar value of climate damages incurred per dollar of public spending. We offer a quantitative illustration of this channel through a multi-sector New Keynesian model with an environmental block and sectoral heterogeneity in carbon intensity. The carbon adjustment of government consumption is negative, ranging between -7 and -19 cents, and even more so for high values of the social cost of carbon and sectors’ carbon intensity. For more information about Omar Rachedi and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "
"CNEE meeting";"Department of Economics";"2026-04-20";"TBA";"2026-04-20";"TBA";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 35.3.20), 1353 Kbh K";"""Copenhagen Network of Experimental Economists spring workshop 2026"". ";"""Copenhagen Network of Experimental Economists spring workshop 2026"" Sign up for the meeting HERE Contact person: Amalie-Maria Meldgaard Jacobsen"
"Emil Libak Simonsen defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-04-22";"10:00";"2026-04-22";"12:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Essays in Migration Economics: Employers, Cross-Border Commuting, and Refugee Integration.";"Candidate: Emil Anton Libak Simonsen, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Essays in Migration Economics: Employers, Cross-Border Commuting, and Refugee Integration Supervisor: Jakob Roland Munch, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Mette Foged, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Jan Stuhler, Professor, Department of Economics, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Olof Åslund, Professor, Department of Economics, Uppsala University Summary: This Ph.D. dissertation consists of three self-contained chapters. Although the chapters address different research questions and apply different methodologies, they are all fundamentally concerned with people crossing national borders. The common themes are the effects on receiving economies and how the places where migrants settle shape their integration outcomes. Two chapters examine the integration of adult and child refugees, respectively, while the third studies the effects of cross-border commuters on hiring firms and their co-workers. Chapter 1: Employers and Refugee Economic Integration: The Effect of Early Employer Quality With Alessandro Caiumi The first chapter studies how employers and workplace social networks shape refugee integration. Using a quasi-random dispersal policy in Denmark, it shows that refugees achieve better outcomes when they are placed in municipalities where co-nationals work for high-quality employers. These effects improve employment and earnings for up to ten years after arrival and remain robust across a wide range of checks. A policy simulation further suggests that incorporating this information into dispersal decisions could increase short-run employment probabilities by 46 percent relative to the actual allocation. Chapter 2: Knowledge Spillovers from Cross Border Commuters: Evidence from a Natural Experiment with Björn Thor Arnarson, Jakob R. Munch, and Morten Olsen This chapter studies how cross-border commuting transmits knowledge across countries. Exploiting the opening of the Øresund Bridge, which sharply increased commuting from Sweden to Denmark, it shows that Danish firms employing more Swedish commuters experience higher productivity. It also finds positive wage effects for incumbent Danish coworkers, particularly when the commuters are high-skilled or have experience in high-tech occupations, consistent with knowledge spillovers. Chapter 3: Randomized to Opportunity: Measuring Place Effects for Refugee Children with N. Meltem Daysal, Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., Naeim S. Samandari, and Mircea Trandafir The final chapter studies how local economic opportunity shapes the long-run outcomes of refugee children. Using Denmark’s quasi-random refugee dispersal policy, it shows that children placed in higher-opportunity municipalities achieve better outcomes in adulthood, including higher income and employment, as well as lower rates of crime, foster care placement, and teenage motherhood. The opportunity measures also predict better outcomes for refugee parents, suggesting that where refugee families are placed has lasting consequences. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Malte Jacob Rattenborg defends his PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-04-24";"10:00";"2026-04-24";"12:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Subjective Beliefs and the Dynamics of Job Search.";"Candidate: Malte Jacob Rattenborg, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Subjective Beliefs and the Dynamics of Job Search Supervisors: Steffen Altmann, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Robert Mahlstedt, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Nikolaj Arpe Harmon, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Florian Zimmermann, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Bonn Andrea Weber, Professor, Department of Economics, Central European University Summary: Job search is not only highly consequential for one’s economic standing, it is also a complex and psychologically demanding endevour, requiring job seekers to understand the labor market, their personal strengths and weaknesses, and to deal with frequent rejections. This dissertation studies how unemployed workers form beliefs, sustain their motivation and make search decisions that influence their re-employment outcomes. Using a combination of theoretical modeling, novel high-frequency job search data, administrative records, and survey experiments in the field, this dissertation provides new evidence on the behavioral mechanisms underlying job search. The results show that job seekers interpret rejections from employers in a self-serving manner, predominantly attributing them to external conditions while preserving confidence in their own skills. Maintaining optimistic beliefs about abilities allows job seekers to sustain their search motivation, while insufficiently updating their reservation wages. Experimental variation confirms that perceptions of skills causally affect job search intensity. Evidence from a large-scale field experiment then shows that wage expectations play a causal role in job search and re-employment. Providing information about re-employment wages by similar workers leads job seekers to update expectations and adjust search strategies, increasing job-finding rates through different mechanisms for initially optimistic and pessimistic individuals. The dissertation further documents substantial negative duration dependence in search intensity over the unemployment spell, using novel measures of online job search activity for the universe of Danish job seekers. Job search counseling temporarily increases search intensity, with persistent effects following initial meetings but diminishing impacts of subsequent meetings. In addition, the analysis reveals pronounced heterogeneity in the direction of job search. A sizable share of unemployed workers search in occupations unrelated to their prior experience, a strategy associated with lower employment and earnings outcomes despite favorable average conditions in targeted occupations. Overall, the findings highlight the central role of subjective beliefs and psychological factors in job search behavior, and suggest that policies targeting information and beliefs can meaningfully improve re-employment outcomes. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"SODAS Data Discussion 3 (Spring 2026)";"SODAS";"2026-04-24";"11:00";"2026-04-24";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Kelton Minor and Sandro Sousa for the Spring 2026 Data Discussion series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Kelton Minor Title: Temperature and the Spectra of Mental Health Abstract: Are you ""hot tempered"", ""cold minded"", or perhaps just a ""warm person""? Consider looking outside for the answer, fair-weather friend. Since time immemorial humans have attributed psychological characteristics and mental states to fluctuations in weather, a point immortalized in our language, early texts like Hippocrates' 400 BCE medical treatise ""On Airs, Waters, and Places"", and in Indigenous knowledge. Following a period of well-grounded scholarly backlash to so-called Hippocratic climate determinism, recent statistical advances in spatiotemporal causal inference have enabled careful re-examination of a more qualified version of this question: To what marginal extent might weather conditions alter mental health net of other background, seasonal and other causes? In a warming world, this question is not just relevant to inform humanity's ongoing adaptation to a variable climate, but to prepare for the rising tide of temperatures implied by a changing one. Yet despite the breadth of mental health spectra, most of what we know about the sensitivity of mental health to temperature is clinical in nature and does not capture instances of mental distress that transpire outside of healthcare facilities – rendering them invisible to health registers and epidemiologists. To address this gap, we conduct a large-scale natural experiment linking ~40 million mental health crisis calls from a large national service line with daily temperature data registered between 2005 – 2022. Our results reveal novel subclinical mental health responses to temperature and imply that efforts to quantify the mental health burden of climatic conditions are incomplete. They should consider the full spectra of mental health impacts that may be prevalent in populations. Discussion 2 Presenter: Sandro Sousa Title: Complex Spatial Patterns of Climate and Conflict-Induced Displacements Abstract: Large-scale population displacements are increasingly driven by extreme weather events and violent conflicts. While gravity and radiation models have been used to estimate migration flows, these approaches are largely static and provide limited insight into the dynamic, path-dependent processes underlying human mobility during shocks. We propose a diffusion-based approach to characterise how hazard exposure propagates through displacement flow networks, by analysing the statistical properties of walks that explore a directed network constructed from real displacements. The exposure profiles produced by the walks reveal how different hazard types are structured across the displacement system, identifying the risks that internally displaced persons are likely to encounter as they move through the network. As a proof of concept, we apply this method to Somalia's detailed displacement-tracking matrix, containing 20,220 movements from February 8 to June 18, 2025. We analyse the path-dependent exposure of displaced persons as they move through areas affected by conflict or climate hazards. We find that individuals following the most likely displacement chains based on current flows would experience mainly droughts and conflicts, with the latter becoming less prominent at each subsequent step. We also find that the probability of conflict and drought across all trajectories is widely dispersed, indicating no typical exposure. This preliminary work provides a framework for understanding how the topology of displacement flows distributes hazard risk, and for estimating future exposure in regions expected to face increasing hazards."
"Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, University of Texas Austin";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-04-27";"13:15";"2026-04-27";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"""Supply Chain Risk, Trade and Economic Fragility"". Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Supply Chain Risk, Trade and Economic Fragility"" Abstract We study how equilibrium patterns of production, trade, and input sourcing in complex supply chains are shaped by aggregate risk. We develop a quantitative model of sequential production under risk, with inputs for each production stage sourced from multiple origins. Input production is subject to aggregate shocks that can vary by origin-destination and production stage. We analytically characterize country-stage input sourcing as a function of the variances of global shocks and production elasticities within and across all stages, and derive results showing the welfare impact of increases in risk, and the impact of risk on comparative advantage. We quantify the model using 3 stages of production and 50 countries. Counterfactuals show that comparative advantage flattens in a risky world, as countries diversify away from the relatively most productive regions to mitigate risk. Increasing supply chain complexity lowers the volatility of welfare for riskier countries, as these countries benefit from the increased opportunities to diversify as the number of production stages increases. We also quantify the welfare impacts of an increase in Chinese-origin and US-origin risk, and an increase in U.S. trade costs in a world with risky global supply chains. Joint with Juanma Castro-Vincenzi, Adry Gracio, and Gaurav Khanna. For more information about Nitya Pandalai-Nayar and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Søren Hove Ravn"
"Michael Haliassos, Goethe University Frankfurt";"Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI) & Macroeconomics ";"2026-05-04";"13:15";"2026-05-04";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Wealth Inequality: Opportunity for Me or for Others?”. Seminar arranged by Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI) & Macroeconomics. ";"""Wealth Inequality: Opportunity for Me or for Others?"" Abstract We provide evidence for a new propagation mechanism of wealth inequality and wealth transitions. Using unique administrative data and a quasi-field experiment of exogenous assignment, we find that educated entrants, faced with greater local wealth inequality and salient cases of wealth mobility, take financial, real, and self-employment risks and reach higher positions in the wealth distribution, while the less educated do not. This is driven by poorer communities with more salient cases of wealth mobility, consistent with peer exposure rather than supply-side effects. We find no evidence for other channels, such as obtaining higher-paying or more secure jobs, or investing in human capital. Co-authors: Thomas Jansson and Yigitcan Karabulut For more information about Michael Haliassos and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: John V. Kramer "
"Elin Ingrid Fanny Colmsjö defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-05-04";"15:00";"2026-05-04";"17:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Shifting Life-Trajectories: Wealth, Violence and Health.";"Candidate: Elin Ingrid Fanny Colmsjö, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Shifting Life-Trajectories: Wealth, Violence and Health Supervisor: Søren Leth-Petersen, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Asger Lau Andersen, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Kathrin Schlafmann, Associate Professor, Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School Abigail Adams, Professor, Department of Economics, Northwestern University Summary: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters studying how distinct events - shocks to wealth, violence, and health - shift individual life trajectories, using Danish administrative register data.In the first chapter, I study how parental wealth transfers early in adulthood shape long-run wealth accumulation and business formation. Exploiting a Danish tax policy that allows parents to sell housing to their children below market value, I show that early access to wealth gives recipients a financial flying start: beyond mechanically raising housing wealth, transfers increase entrepreneurship and consumption. The effects are strongest among individuals with limited liquid resources and when parents have prior entrepreneurial experience, indicating that the timing of wealth transfers matters at critical stages of the life cycle.In the second chapter, written together with Daphné Skandalis, we study exposure to violence at work and show that it leads to substantial and persistent earnings losses and higher job separation — effects markedly larger than those following comparably severe non-violent injuries. Affected workers move to safer firms, consistent with lower violence risk, consistent with deliberate risk avoidance. Because violent incidents are concentrated in jobs with high labor market tightness, they aggravate existing labor shortages.In the third chapter, written together with Steffen Andersen, Kim Peijnenburg, and Gianpaolo Parise, we use the timing of cancer diagnoses to show that severe health shocks lead to a persistent increase in both first-time offenses and re-offending, driven by financial strain, shorter survival horizons, and psychological distress. Welfare policies that mitigate the economic consequences of health shocks substantially reduce these spillovers, showing that health shocks generate broader social externalities and are not purely private events. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"Didier Fouarge, Maastricht University";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-05-07";"13:00";"2026-05-07";"14:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Online Buddies for Job Seekers: A Field Experiment”. CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Online Buddies for Job Seekers: A Field Experiment"" Abstract We design an online platform to connect unemployed job seekers with ‘buddies’: former job seekers who recently found employment. We focus on job seekers who search in occupations with poor prospects and buddies who successfully switched occupations. In a randomized controlled trial, we evaluate the impact of access to the platform on labor market outcomes. We find sizable effects. Thirteen to 18 months after getting access, initially unemployed job seekers are 6 percentage points (11%) more likely to be employed and earn 226 Euro more per month than those without access. The positive impact is concentrated among the long-term unemployed. Co-authors: Bart K. de Koning, Paul Muller, Michèle Belot, Yvonne Engels, Mario Keer, Philipp Kircher, and Sandra Phlippen. For more information about Didier Fouarge and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Robert Mahlstedt "
"Hannah Christine Simon defends her PhD thesis at the Department of Economics";"Department of Economics";"2026-05-08";"10:00";"2026-05-08";"12:00";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"The title of the dissertation is: Search Frictions on Online Job Platforms: Evidence from High-Frequency Data.";"Candidate: Hannah Christine Simon, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Title: Search Frictions on Online Job Platforms: Evidence from High-Frequency Data Supervisor: Steffen Altmann, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Assessment Committee: Mette Gørtz, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen Lena Hensvik, Professor, Department of Economics, Uppsala University Didier Fouarge, Professor, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market, Maastricht University Summary: This thesis consists of three self-contained chapters studying how visibility, behavioral frictions, and information design mediate job search, using high-frequency data from Denmark’s largest public job search platform. The first chapter, written with Steffen Altmann, Malte Jacob Rattenborg and Alexander Sebald, investigates how the visibility of job postings shapes application behavior and firm recruitment. We show that doubling first-week clicks increases total applications by nearly 80 percent and pulls applications forward in time, without affecting applicant quality. These results indicate inefficiencies in firms’ posting practices and speak to the central role of visibility in firm hiring. In the second chapter, I examine how gender differences in job search unfold from vacancy consideration to application submission. Conditional on opening a posting, women are about 15 percent less likely to apply relative to otherwise similar men. Women’s sorting into lower-wage and shorter-commute jobs arises primarily at the consideration stage, whereas selection into part-time positions intensifies as search progresses. These findings highlight that gender gaps in job search and in applied-for wages emerge from both vacancy selection and the scope of search. The third chapter, written with Robert Mahlstedt and Alexander Sebald, turns to the design of search advice on platforms and asks whether more information helps or hinders job seekers. In a large-scale field experiment with more than 80,000 unemployed workers, we show that job seekers receiving simplified guidance are more optimistic, search more, and are more likely to find a job, all while experiencing smaller wage losses. These findings suggest that even potentially useful advice can lose effectiveness in a cognitively demanding informational environment. Together, the three chapters show that the digital organization of job search is a key determinant of how labor markets function, with direct implications for firms, policymakers, and platform designers seeking to improve hiring efficiency and reduce inequality. An electronic copy of the dissertation can be requested here: lema@econ.ku.dk"
"SODAS Lecture with Sebastian Stier";"SODAS";"2026-05-08";"11:00";"2026-05-08";"12:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host Sebastian Stier from GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences and University of Mannheim!";"Title: Unlocking Digital Behavioral Data: New User-Centered Approaches for Social Science Research Abstract: Following the shutdown of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) by online platforms, social science research relying on platform data has largely come to a standstill. However, the “post-API” age also presents opportunities for innovation and the development of more robust, quality-assured data collection strategies in computational social science. Researchers are increasingly adopting user-centered data collection approaches, in which participants are recruited and provide informed consent for the collection of longitudinal digital behavioral data in combination with (panel) surveys. The key advantage of such research designs is their ability to capture authentic, in-context user behavior as it naturally unfolds, while also enabling the study of individual-level determinants and consequences of digital behavior with established survey instruments. While the advantages of user-centered data collections are evident, implementing such research designs also poses significant challenges such as consent bias, skewed participant samples and technical hurdles. This talk will present advances in user-centered approaches using several research examples from the field of political communication."
"Oliver Pfäuti, University of Texas at Austin ";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-05-11";"13:15";"2026-05-11";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Public Debt and the Price of Fiscal Uncertainty: Attention and Inflation Volatility”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Public Debt and the Price of Fiscal Uncertainty: Attention and Inflation Volatility"" Abstract How does public debt shape inflation when firms are imperfectly informed about fiscal conditions and macroeconomic shocks? We study this question in a general equilibrium model of rationally inattentive price setting, where fiscal policy affects firms’ desired prices through taxes on firm revenues. Public debt changes firms’ incentives to acquire information through two opposing forces: higher debt lowers the stakes of pricing decisions, while making desired prices more sensitive to tax changes. This trade-off generates a U-shape in both firms' attention and passthrough with respect to public debt. We test this prediction using micro data on price-setting by firms in 12 Euro Area countries. The implied passthrough of cost shocks declines with debt at low debt levels, reaches a minimum around a debt-to-GDP ratio of 80%, and rises thereafter. Endogenous attention makes the inflationary effects of fiscal policy state dependent. Faster debt repayment lowers attention and inflation volatility when debt is low, but raises both when debt is high. Fiscal shocks under elevated prior uncertainty generate substantially larger inflation responses at high debt, while leaving inflation dynamics nearly unchanged at low debt. For more information about Oliver Pfäuti and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Manuel Menkhoff "
"David Dorn, UZH";"Department of Economics";"2026-05-12";"13:15";"2026-05-12";"14:45";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Help for the Heartland? The Economic and Political Effects of the Trump Tariffs in US Local Labor Markets"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Help for the Heartland? The Economic and Political Effects of the Trump Tariffs in US Local Labor Markets"" Abstract We study the economic and political consequences of the 2018-2019 trade war between the United States, China, and other US trade partners at the detailed geographic level, analyzing both short-run outcomes during the trade war and longer-run effects through 2023/24. US import tariffs did not significantly affect employment or earnings during or after the trade war. Retaliatory tariffs initially reduced employment—especially in agriculture—but harms were partially mitigated by agricultural subsidies and faded over time. Politically, the trade war benefited the Republican party. Residents in tariff-exposed areas showed increased support for tariffs, became more likely to identify as Republicans, and were more likely to vote for Donald Trump in 2020 and 2024. The pattern of tariff-induced Republican gains and limited local employment effects was especially pronounced in regions with greater prior exposure to Chinese import competition, where voters may have valued protectionist action even in the absence of tangible economic benefits. Contact person: Morten Graugaard Olsen"
"Rüdiger Bachmann, University of Michigan";"Department of Economics";"2026-05-13";"13:15";"2026-05-13";"14:30";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""The Nature of Capital Expenditures over The Business Cycle"". Seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""The Nature of Capital Expenditures over The Business Cycle"" Abstract Data on capital expenditures typically sum spending across different investment activities. Using unique firm-level survey data, we document stylized facts for five distinct types of investment: capacity expansion, restructuring, rationalization, maintenance and replacement, and others. We find that: (i) maintenance and replacements, together with capacity expansions, account for the largest share of aggregate investment; (ii) capacity expansions are the main driver of aggregate investment growth, largely through extensive margin adjustments; (iii) all types are procyclical, but their composition shifts over the business cycle, with the share of capacity expansions being procyclical and that of all other types countercyclical; and (iv) lumpiness differs across types; which, together with cyclical expenditure shares, implies that the lumpiness of total investment varies over the business cycle. These facts provide empirical targets for models with heterogeneous investment activities. Contact persons: Manuel Menkhoff and Søren Hove Ravn "
"Stephanie Ettmeier, CERGE-EI";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-05-18";"13:15";"2026-05-18";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Measuring the Effects of Aggregate Shocks on Unit-Level Outcomes and Their Distribution”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Measuring the Effects of Aggregate Shocks on Unit-Level Outcomes and Their Distribution"" Abstract This paper studies the effect of aggregate shocks on micro-level outcomes. We develop and estimate a cross-sectional units vector autoregression (csuVAR) that combines aggregate variables with unit-level outcomes, earnings in our application. The csuVAR also allows us to reconstruct the cross-sectional distribution from the unit-level outcomes. We contrast the csuVAR with a functional VAR model (fVAR) that is designed to directly track the evolution of macroeconomic aggregates and a cross-sectional distribution, but not individual units. In an empirical application we examine the effect of productivity shocks on the unit-level labor earnings dynamics in Germany, using a panel data set constructed from the Sample of Integrated Labour Market Biographies (SIAB) published by Institute for Employment Research (IAB) of the German Federal Employment Agency. Joint work with Chi Hyun Kim and Frank Schorfheide. For more information about Stephanie Ettmeier and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "
"Jonas Radbruch, Humboldt University in Berlin";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-05-19";"13:15";"2026-05-19";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“Small Sample Diversity”. CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""Small Sample Diversity"" Abstract Diversity goals are typically defined at the level of an organization but implemented through decentralized decisions by individual evaluators observing only a small subset of the candidate pool. In this paper, we analyze how organizational diversity concerns interact with the small-sample nature of candidate selection. We use data on more than 40,000 admission interviews of a merit-based scholarship program, where each evaluator assesses a randomly assigned subset of candidates. Conditional on own ability, a candidate's selection probability is substantially reduced by higher-ability candidates assigned to the same evaluator. This effect is consistently twice as large within than across diversity-relevant candidate characteristics including gender, migration background, and socioeconomic status. To structure the analysis of potential mechanisms, we develop a theoretical framework showing that these effects can arise both from a group-specific learning mechanism and from the application of soft quotas within small candidate samples. Additional analyses indicate that learning alone cannot fully account for the empirical patterns, pointing to a role for ""small-sample quotas”. Joint work with Andreas Grunewald, Amelie Schiprowski, and Jakob Wegmann. For more information about Jonas Radbruch and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Robert Mahlstedt "
"SODAS Data Discussion 4 (Spring 2026)";"SODAS";"2026-05-22";"11:00";"2026-05-22";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5a, SODAS Conference Room 1.1.12";"SODAS is delighted to host CAISA Fellows Agnete Meldgaard Hansen and Jun Liu for the Spring 2026 Data Discussion series!";"Copenhagen Center for Social Data Science (SODAS) aspirers to be a resource for all students and researchers at the Faculty of Social Sciences. We therefore invite researchers across the faculty to present ongoing research projects, project applications or just a loose idea that relates to the subject of social data science. Two researchers will present their work. The rules are simple: Short research presentations of ten minutes are followed by twenty minutes of debate. No papers will be circulated beforehand, and the presentations cannot be longer than five slides. Discussion 1 Presenter: Agnete Meldgaard Hansen Title: AI, Ethics, and Care for Older Persons Abstract: TBA Discussion 2 Presenter: Jun Liu Title: Benchmarking Power: Institutional and Geopolitical Dynamics in AI Abstract: TBA"
"Mika Meitz, University of Helsinki";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-05-28";"11:00";"2026-05-28";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.1.21B), 1353 Kbh K";"""Generative Predictive Distributions for Time Series"". Seminar arranged by ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Generative Predictive Distributions for Time Series"" Abstract We propose a flexible framework for modeling the predictive distributions of nonlinear, possibly multivariate time series. Our approach expresses a general predictive distribution in an appropriate generative representation that is based on a folklore result from measure theoretic probability. This representation provides a direct simulation-based approximation to the predictive distribution, enabling straightforward computation of forecasts for the conditional mean and variance, fan charts, value at risk, expected shortfall, joint tail risks, and other quantities of interest. We estimate this generative representation using a version of generative adversarial networks and provide a formal statistical analysis of estimation under temporal dependence. Specifically, estimation is expressed as a particular minimax problem and we establish consistency of its approximate solutions in Hausdorff distance. The empirical relevance of the approach is illustrated using applications to equity returns, realized variance, and realized covariances. The proposed method is also computationally manageable, with estimation in our applications taking approximately one minute on a standard laptop. (Joint work with Jordi Llorens-Terrazas, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen"
"Hanbaek Lee, University of Cambridge";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-06-01";"13:15";"2026-06-01";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“TBA”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Hanbaek Lee and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Manuel Menkhoff "
"Jonas Skjold Raaschou-Pedersen (SODAS)";" ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-06-02";"11:00";"2026-06-02";"12:00";"CSS, Øster Farimagsgade 5, (lokale 26.2.21), 1353 Kbh K";"""Doubly Robust Instrumented Difference-in-Differences"". Seminar arranged by ETMU (Econometric Theory and Methods Unit) seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"""Doubly Robust Instrumented Difference-in-Differences"" Abstract We study estimation of the local average treatment effect on the treated ($LATT$) in instrumented difference-in-differences (IDiD) designs with covariates and staggered instrument exposure. We derive the efficient influence function (EIF) of the target parameter in both panel and repeated cross-sections settings, allowing for two classes of control groups: never-exposed and not-yet-exposed. Building on the EIF, we construct doubly robust estimands and corresponding estimators from first principles. The resulting procedures are the IDiD analogues of the difference-in-differences (DiD) procedures in \cite{csa}, targeting $LATT$ rather than $ATT$. We further establish a Bloom-type result under one-sided compliance and absorbing treatment, linking $LATT$ to a convex combination of exposure-cohort-specific $ATT(g, t)$ parameters, making the connection between IDiD and DiD explicit. Asymptotic properties are established under conditions on the remainder term and either Donsker conditions or via cross-fitting. We also construct double machine learning (DML) estimators for the $LATT$ in both data settings and show their equivalence to cross-fitted estimators. Simulations assess the double robustness and finite-sample performance of the proposed methods. An implementation is available in the Python package \texttt{idid} Contact person: Rasmus Søndergaard Pedersen "
"Sophie Cottet, University of Stavanger ";"CoLab seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-06-16";"13:15";"2026-06-16";"14:45";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“TBA”. CoLab Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Sophie Cottet and her interesting work - link to her website. Contact person: Jakob Søgaard "
"Chris Busch, LMU Munich";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-09-15";"13:15";"2026-09-14";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“TBA”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Chris Busch and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Manuel Menkhoff "
"Galo  Nuno, Banco de España";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-10-26";"13:15";"2026-10-26";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“TBA”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Galo Nuño and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "
"Aurélien Eyquem, University of Lausanne";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-11-02";"13:15";"2026-11-02";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“TBA”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Aurélien Eyquem and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "
"Lukas Freund, Boston College";"Macroeconomics seminar arranged by the Department of Economics";"2026-12-14";"13:15";"2026-12-14";"14:30";"University of Copenhagen, Building 26, room 26.2.21, Øster Farimagsgade 5, DK-1353 Copenhagen";"“TBA”. Macroeconomics Seminar arranged by Department of Economics.";"""TBA"" For more information about Lukas Freund and his interesting work - link to his website. Contact person: Brigitte Hochmuth "