Improving Empirical Foundations for Making Population Forecasts

Forskningsenhed: DREAM


Abstract:
Population projections are essential as the basis for long-term projections of the Danish economy and the challenges awaiting it as a consequence of the demographic changes. Consequently, it is extremely important to develop the best instruments available in order to constantly improve the methodology of the institutions making population projections. Among other things, the results of the present project proposal will carry over directly into the prospects of assessing correctly the sustainability of Danish public finances. The various institutions making long-term projections of the Danish economy such as the Ministry of Finance, the Danish Economic Council, The Danish Welfare Commission, and DREAM all use long-term population projections as one of the corner-stones of their economic projections. Changes in e.g. fertility or mortality may have important implications for the results of economic analyses cf. e.g. the Danish Welfare Commission (2004). Also, for other major long-tem policy issues such as the likely future development in the pension sector or the consequences of migration, population projections play a major role.

Read the full project description here

You can read the Danish Policy analysis Forventet levetid for forskellige aldersgrupper En anvendelse af Lee-Carter metoden på danske data DREAM rapport, 14. juni 2006, Marianne Frank Hansen, Lars Haagen Pedersen og Peter Stephensen here