TY - BOOK

T1 - Tales From the Unit Interval

T2 - Backtesting, Forecasting and Modeling

AU - Nielsen, Thor Pajhede

PY - 2017/5

Y1 - 2017/5

N2 - Testing the validity of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts, or backtesting, is an integral part of modern market risk management and regulation. This is often done by applying independence and coverage tests developed in Christoffersen (1998) to so-called hit-sequences derived from VaR forecasts and realized losses. However, as pointed out in the literature, see Christoffersen and Pelletier (2004), these aforementioned tests suffer from low rejection frequencies, or (empirical) power when applied to hit-sequences derived from simulations matching empirical stylized characteristics of return data. One key observation of the studies is that higher order dependence in the hit-sequences may cause the observed lower power performance. We propose to generalize the backtest framework for Value-at-Risk forecasts, by extending the original first order dependence of Christoffersen (1998) to allow for a higher, or k’th, order dependence. We provide closed form expressions for the tests as well as asymptotic theory. Not only do the generalized tests have power against k’th order dependence by definition, but also included simulations indicate improved power performance when replicating the aforementioned studies. Further, included simulations show much improved size properties of one of the suggested tests.

AB - Testing the validity of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts, or backtesting, is an integral part of modern market risk management and regulation. This is often done by applying independence and coverage tests developed in Christoffersen (1998) to so-called hit-sequences derived from VaR forecasts and realized losses. However, as pointed out in the literature, see Christoffersen and Pelletier (2004), these aforementioned tests suffer from low rejection frequencies, or (empirical) power when applied to hit-sequences derived from simulations matching empirical stylized characteristics of return data. One key observation of the studies is that higher order dependence in the hit-sequences may cause the observed lower power performance. We propose to generalize the backtest framework for Value-at-Risk forecasts, by extending the original first order dependence of Christoffersen (1998) to allow for a higher, or k’th, order dependence. We provide closed form expressions for the tests as well as asymptotic theory. Not only do the generalized tests have power against k’th order dependence by definition, but also included simulations indicate improved power performance when replicating the aforementioned studies. Further, included simulations show much improved size properties of one of the suggested tests.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - Value-at-Risk

KW - Backtesting

KW - Markov Chain

KW - Duration

KW - quantile

KW - likelihood ratio

KW - maximum likelihood

M3 - Ph.D. thesis

SN - 9788793428102

BT - Tales From the Unit Interval

PB - Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen

CY - Copenhagen

ER -