Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelfagfællebedømt

Standard

Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders. / Bhattacharyya, Sambit; Keller, Michael.

I: Economica, Bind 88, Nr. 349, 2021, s. 129-166.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelfagfællebedømt

Harvard

Bhattacharyya, S & Keller, M 2021, 'Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders', Economica, bind 88, nr. 349, s. 129-166. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12350

APA

Bhattacharyya, S., & Keller, M. (2021). Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders. Economica, 88(349), 129-166. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12350

Vancouver

Bhattacharyya S, Keller M. Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders. Economica. 2021;88(349):129-166. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12350

Author

Bhattacharyya, Sambit ; Keller, Michael. / Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders. I: Economica. 2021 ; Bind 88, Nr. 349. s. 129-166.

Bibtex

@article{9e0a54bdbc8e4c14ba6e9632b96fc0b5,
title = "Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders",
abstract = "We investigate the causal effects of giant and first oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in single-risk and multiple-risk discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a single-risk model especially in a non-election year. In contrast, oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a multiple-risk model, oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non-resource tax and military expenditure appear to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.",
author = "Sambit Bhattacharyya and Michael Keller",
year = "2021",
doi = "10.1111/ecca.12350",
language = "English",
volume = "88",
pages = "129--166",
journal = "Economica",
issn = "0013-0427",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "349",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders

AU - Bhattacharyya, Sambit

AU - Keller, Michael

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - We investigate the causal effects of giant and first oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in single-risk and multiple-risk discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a single-risk model especially in a non-election year. In contrast, oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a multiple-risk model, oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non-resource tax and military expenditure appear to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.

AB - We investigate the causal effects of giant and first oil and mineral discoveries on the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010 in single-risk and multiple-risk discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a single-risk model especially in a non-election year. In contrast, oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by resource income rather than expectations. In a multiple-risk model, oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of departure via military coup while resource discovery reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to affect the risk of election loss. Non-resource tax and military expenditure appear to be two potent mechanisms through which oil discovery affects political survival.

UR - https://www.mendeley.com/catalogue/2f609780-18c8-3189-91b5-22a6451dbcc4/

U2 - 10.1111/ecca.12350

DO - 10.1111/ecca.12350

M3 - Journal article

VL - 88

SP - 129

EP - 166

JO - Economica

JF - Economica

SN - 0013-0427

IS - 349

ER -

ID: 249946572