Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought

Publikation: Bog/antologi/afhandling/rapportPh.d.-afhandling

Standard

Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought. / Fisker, Peter Kielberg.

Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, 2017.

Publikation: Bog/antologi/afhandling/rapportPh.d.-afhandling

Harvard

Fisker, PK 2017, Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought. Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen. <https://soeg.kb.dk/permalink/45KBDK_KGL/fbp0ps/alma99122540552005763>

APA

Fisker, P. K. (2017). Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought. Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen. https://soeg.kb.dk/permalink/45KBDK_KGL/fbp0ps/alma99122540552005763

Vancouver

Fisker PK. Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought. Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, 2017.

Author

Fisker, Peter Kielberg. / Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought. Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, 2017.

Bibtex

@phdthesis{ffc33bee557d4770b28e8825a47a2133,
title = "Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought",
abstract = "This PhD thesis is a conjunction of four manuscripts and one publishedpaper on the measurement of disasters. The central idea is that in orderto study the causes and consequences of disasters, it is necessary to separatethe concept into its components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, resilience,response, impact, etc. With this in mind, the thesis will take thereader through 4 chapters on the measurement of causes and consequencesof drought and one chapter on the role of technology in disaster relief coordination.The first chapter is about measuring drought hazard. It outlines someof the caveats of existing measures of agricultural drought often used in theeconomics research, and suggests the use of predicted greenness anomalies.The idea is to use satellite observations of rainfall and temperature anomaliesto predict greenness anomalies in a regression framework. This leads toan estimator that is consistent and precise over time and space, includesinformation on both determinants and direct observations of drought, and isunaffected by human activities or the distance to nearest weather station. Itis shown to outperform other widely used agricultural drought measures in itsability to predict self-reported droughts and economic activity as measuredby lights at night.The second and third chapter exploit the observed impacts of agriculturaldrought (measured as predicted greenness anomalies) on socio-economic out-comes to develop practical new ways of measuring vulnerability and resiliencein the Sahel. Vulnerability to childhood stunting is operationalized as theprobability of being stunted in a hypothetical future period based on the distributionand effect of a drought. Resilience is determined by the observeddifferences in consumption before and after a shock. Due to the scarcity ofpanel data in the region, the main contribution of the third paper is to showthat the counter-factuals can be approximated with cross-sectional data usingdecomposition methods.The fourth chapter looks into one of the short term consequence of agriculturaldrought in Nigeria, namely the change in production methods amongsmall-scale farmers. By merging a geo-referenced panel dataset with rich informationabout agricultural practices with predicted greenness anomaliesat the plot level, it is possible to precisely identify changes in behaviourbefore and after a severe drought. Due to large variation in drought intensityacross the country (and even within states), a difference-in-differencestrategy is pursued. The findings indicate that farmers implement a rangeof on-farm risk-management strategies as a result of being exposed to adrought. Specifically they tend to grow more drought-resistant crops, spendmore time on their fields, and use more pesticide and herbicide.The fifth chapter studies one of the factors that can mediate the consequencesof disasters. A case study is built around the Virtual OSOCC, anonline platform for disaster relief coordination. By a combination of quantitativeand qualitative methods, the conclusion is that simple changes tothe user interface of a web-page can have substantial positive effects on theamount of information being shared among relief organizations during thecritical first 48 hours of a disaster event.",
author = "Fisker, {Peter Kielberg}",
year = "2017",
language = "English",
publisher = "Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen",

}

RIS

TY - BOOK

T1 - Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought

AU - Fisker, Peter Kielberg

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - This PhD thesis is a conjunction of four manuscripts and one publishedpaper on the measurement of disasters. The central idea is that in orderto study the causes and consequences of disasters, it is necessary to separatethe concept into its components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, resilience,response, impact, etc. With this in mind, the thesis will take thereader through 4 chapters on the measurement of causes and consequencesof drought and one chapter on the role of technology in disaster relief coordination.The first chapter is about measuring drought hazard. It outlines someof the caveats of existing measures of agricultural drought often used in theeconomics research, and suggests the use of predicted greenness anomalies.The idea is to use satellite observations of rainfall and temperature anomaliesto predict greenness anomalies in a regression framework. This leads toan estimator that is consistent and precise over time and space, includesinformation on both determinants and direct observations of drought, and isunaffected by human activities or the distance to nearest weather station. Itis shown to outperform other widely used agricultural drought measures in itsability to predict self-reported droughts and economic activity as measuredby lights at night.The second and third chapter exploit the observed impacts of agriculturaldrought (measured as predicted greenness anomalies) on socio-economic out-comes to develop practical new ways of measuring vulnerability and resiliencein the Sahel. Vulnerability to childhood stunting is operationalized as theprobability of being stunted in a hypothetical future period based on the distributionand effect of a drought. Resilience is determined by the observeddifferences in consumption before and after a shock. Due to the scarcity ofpanel data in the region, the main contribution of the third paper is to showthat the counter-factuals can be approximated with cross-sectional data usingdecomposition methods.The fourth chapter looks into one of the short term consequence of agriculturaldrought in Nigeria, namely the change in production methods amongsmall-scale farmers. By merging a geo-referenced panel dataset with rich informationabout agricultural practices with predicted greenness anomaliesat the plot level, it is possible to precisely identify changes in behaviourbefore and after a severe drought. Due to large variation in drought intensityacross the country (and even within states), a difference-in-differencestrategy is pursued. The findings indicate that farmers implement a rangeof on-farm risk-management strategies as a result of being exposed to adrought. Specifically they tend to grow more drought-resistant crops, spendmore time on their fields, and use more pesticide and herbicide.The fifth chapter studies one of the factors that can mediate the consequencesof disasters. A case study is built around the Virtual OSOCC, anonline platform for disaster relief coordination. By a combination of quantitativeand qualitative methods, the conclusion is that simple changes tothe user interface of a web-page can have substantial positive effects on theamount of information being shared among relief organizations during thecritical first 48 hours of a disaster event.

AB - This PhD thesis is a conjunction of four manuscripts and one publishedpaper on the measurement of disasters. The central idea is that in orderto study the causes and consequences of disasters, it is necessary to separatethe concept into its components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, resilience,response, impact, etc. With this in mind, the thesis will take thereader through 4 chapters on the measurement of causes and consequencesof drought and one chapter on the role of technology in disaster relief coordination.The first chapter is about measuring drought hazard. It outlines someof the caveats of existing measures of agricultural drought often used in theeconomics research, and suggests the use of predicted greenness anomalies.The idea is to use satellite observations of rainfall and temperature anomaliesto predict greenness anomalies in a regression framework. This leads toan estimator that is consistent and precise over time and space, includesinformation on both determinants and direct observations of drought, and isunaffected by human activities or the distance to nearest weather station. Itis shown to outperform other widely used agricultural drought measures in itsability to predict self-reported droughts and economic activity as measuredby lights at night.The second and third chapter exploit the observed impacts of agriculturaldrought (measured as predicted greenness anomalies) on socio-economic out-comes to develop practical new ways of measuring vulnerability and resiliencein the Sahel. Vulnerability to childhood stunting is operationalized as theprobability of being stunted in a hypothetical future period based on the distributionand effect of a drought. Resilience is determined by the observeddifferences in consumption before and after a shock. Due to the scarcity ofpanel data in the region, the main contribution of the third paper is to showthat the counter-factuals can be approximated with cross-sectional data usingdecomposition methods.The fourth chapter looks into one of the short term consequence of agriculturaldrought in Nigeria, namely the change in production methods amongsmall-scale farmers. By merging a geo-referenced panel dataset with rich informationabout agricultural practices with predicted greenness anomaliesat the plot level, it is possible to precisely identify changes in behaviourbefore and after a severe drought. Due to large variation in drought intensityacross the country (and even within states), a difference-in-differencestrategy is pursued. The findings indicate that farmers implement a rangeof on-farm risk-management strategies as a result of being exposed to adrought. Specifically they tend to grow more drought-resistant crops, spendmore time on their fields, and use more pesticide and herbicide.The fifth chapter studies one of the factors that can mediate the consequencesof disasters. A case study is built around the Virtual OSOCC, anonline platform for disaster relief coordination. By a combination of quantitativeand qualitative methods, the conclusion is that simple changes tothe user interface of a web-page can have substantial positive effects on theamount of information being shared among relief organizations during thecritical first 48 hours of a disaster event.

UR - https://soeg.kb.dk/permalink/45KBDK_KGL/fbp0ps/alma99122540552005763

M3 - Ph.D. thesis

BT - Measurements of the Causes and Consequences of Drought

PB - Department of Food and Resource Economics, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen

ER -

ID: 178601906