Integrating Factor Models

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelForskningfagfællebedømt

Dokumenter

  • Fulltext

    Forlagets udgivne version, 1,8 MB, PDF-dokument

This paper develops a comprehensive framework to address uncertainty about the correct factor model. Asset pricing inferences draw on a composite model that integrates over competing factor models weighted by posterior probabilities. Evidence shows that unconditional models record near-zero probabilities, while post-earnings announcement drift, quality-minus-junk, and intermediary capital are potent factors in conditional asset pricing. The integrated model tilts away from the subsequently underperforming factors, and delivers robust strategies. Model uncertainty makes equities appear considerably riskier, while model disagreement about expected returns spikes during crash episodes. Disagreement spans all return components involving mispricing, factor loadings, and risk premia.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
TidsskriftThe Journal of Finance
Vol/bind78
Udgave nummer3
Sider (fra-til)1593-1646
ISSN0022-1082
DOI
StatusUdgivet - 2023

ID: 318816240