How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

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How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? / Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes.

I: The Review of Economics and Statistics, Bind 102, Nr. 4, 2020, s. 731-748.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt

Harvard

Roth, C & Wohlfart, J 2020, 'How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?', The Review of Economics and Statistics, bind 102, nr. 4, s. 731-748. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00867

APA

Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2020). How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? The Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(4), 731-748. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00867

Vancouver

Roth C, Wohlfart J. How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? The Review of Economics and Statistics. 2020;102(4):731-748. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00867

Author

Roth, Christopher ; Wohlfart, Johannes. / How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?. I: The Review of Economics and Statistics. 2020 ; Bind 102, Nr. 4. s. 731-748.

Bibtex

@article{c912bd3f797f4bc4b91f10f42229fcf9,
title = "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?",
abstract = "Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive, but understand how the economy works.",
author = "Christopher Roth and Johannes Wohlfart",
year = "2020",
doi = "10.1162/rest_a_00867",
language = "English",
volume = "102",
pages = "731--748",
journal = "Review of Economics and Statistics",
issn = "0034-6535",
publisher = "MIT Press",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

AU - Roth, Christopher

AU - Wohlfart, Johannes

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive, but understand how the economy works.

AB - Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive, but understand how the economy works.

U2 - 10.1162/rest_a_00867

DO - 10.1162/rest_a_00867

M3 - Journal article

VL - 102

SP - 731

EP - 748

JO - Review of Economics and Statistics

JF - Review of Economics and Statistics

SN - 0034-6535

IS - 4

ER -

ID: 231946070