Exit Polls and Voter Turnout

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelfagfællebedømt

Standard

Exit Polls and Voter Turnout. / Andersen, Asger Lau; Jensen, Thomas.

I: Journal of Theoretical Politics, Bind 26, Nr. 1, 2014, s. 117-134.

Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskriftTidsskriftartikelfagfællebedømt

Harvard

Andersen, AL & Jensen, T 2014, 'Exit Polls and Voter Turnout', Journal of Theoretical Politics, bind 26, nr. 1, s. 117-134. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951629813493210

APA

Andersen, A. L., & Jensen, T. (2014). Exit Polls and Voter Turnout. Journal of Theoretical Politics, 26(1), 117-134. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951629813493210

Vancouver

Andersen AL, Jensen T. Exit Polls and Voter Turnout. Journal of Theoretical Politics. 2014;26(1):117-134. https://doi.org/10.1177/0951629813493210

Author

Andersen, Asger Lau ; Jensen, Thomas. / Exit Polls and Voter Turnout. I: Journal of Theoretical Politics. 2014 ; Bind 26, Nr. 1. s. 117-134.

Bibtex

@article{99a2c352efbf4c2c829d4ace683f65a7,
title = "Exit Polls and Voter Turnout",
abstract = "After the 2009 referendum on a proposed change to the Danish Law of Succession, it was widely claimed that the early publication of exit poll results changed the rate of turnout and eventually the outcome. We investigate this claim and contribute to the wider debate on the implications of exit polls by setting up and analyzing a formal model. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The observation that exit polls influence the incentive to vote even before they are published is often overlooked. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on electoral outcomes. In particular, in cases such as the Danish referendum where it clearly appears that exit polls changed the outcome, it could well be that the outcome would have been the same had there been no exit polls",
keywords = "Faculty of Social Sciences, Exit polls, formal modeling, voter turnout",
author = "Andersen, {Asger Lau} and Thomas Jensen",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1177/0951629813493210",
language = "English",
volume = "26",
pages = "117--134",
journal = "Journal of Theoretical Politics",
issn = "0951-6298",
publisher = "SAGE Publications",
number = "1",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Exit Polls and Voter Turnout

AU - Andersen, Asger Lau

AU - Jensen, Thomas

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - After the 2009 referendum on a proposed change to the Danish Law of Succession, it was widely claimed that the early publication of exit poll results changed the rate of turnout and eventually the outcome. We investigate this claim and contribute to the wider debate on the implications of exit polls by setting up and analyzing a formal model. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The observation that exit polls influence the incentive to vote even before they are published is often overlooked. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on electoral outcomes. In particular, in cases such as the Danish referendum where it clearly appears that exit polls changed the outcome, it could well be that the outcome would have been the same had there been no exit polls

AB - After the 2009 referendum on a proposed change to the Danish Law of Succession, it was widely claimed that the early publication of exit poll results changed the rate of turnout and eventually the outcome. We investigate this claim and contribute to the wider debate on the implications of exit polls by setting up and analyzing a formal model. We find that the introduction of an exit poll influences the incentive to vote both before and after the poll is published, but the signs of the effects are generally ambiguous. The observation that exit polls influence the incentive to vote even before they are published is often overlooked. We show that this can lead to premature conclusions about the impact of exit polls on electoral outcomes. In particular, in cases such as the Danish referendum where it clearly appears that exit polls changed the outcome, it could well be that the outcome would have been the same had there been no exit polls

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - Exit polls

KW - formal modeling

KW - voter turnout

U2 - 10.1177/0951629813493210

DO - 10.1177/0951629813493210

M3 - Journal article

VL - 26

SP - 117

EP - 134

JO - Journal of Theoretical Politics

JF - Journal of Theoretical Politics

SN - 0951-6298

IS - 1

ER -

ID: 51174313