Bootstrap Determination of the Co-Integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models
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Bootstrap Determination of the Co-Integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models. / Cavaliere , G. ; Rahbek, Anders; Taylor, A.M.R. .
I: Econometric Reviews, Bind 33, Nr. 5–6, 2014, s. 606–650.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Bootstrap Determination of the Co-Integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models
AU - Cavaliere , G.
AU - Rahbek, Anders
AU - Taylor, A.M.R.
N1 - JEL Classification: C30; C32
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - In a recent paper Cavaliere et al. (2012) develop bootstrap implementations of the (pseudo-) likelihood ratio (PLR) co-integration rank test and associated sequential rank determination procedure of Johansen (1996). The bootstrap samples are constructed using the restricted parameter estimates of the underlying vector autoregressive (VAR) model which obtain under the reduced rank null hypothesis. They propose methods based on an independent and individual distributed (i.i.d.) bootstrap resampling scheme and establish the validity of their proposed bootstrap procedures in the context of a co-integrated VAR model with i.i.d. innovations. In this paper we investigate the properties of their bootstrap procedures, together with analogous procedures based on a wild bootstrap resampling scheme, when time-varying behavior is present in either the conditional or unconditional variance of the innovations. We show that the bootstrap PLR tests are asymptotically correctly sized and, moreover, that the probability that the associated bootstrap sequential procedures select a rank smaller than the true rank converges to zero. This result is shown to hold for both the i.i.d. and wild bootstrap variants under conditional heteroskedasticity but only for the latter under unconditional heteroskedasticity. Monte Carlo evidence is reported which suggests that the bootstrap approach of Cavaliere et al. (2012) significantly improves upon the finite sample performance of corresponding procedures based on either the asymptotic PLR test or an alternative bootstrap method (where the short run dynamics in the VAR model are estimated unrestrictedly) for a variety of conditionally and unconditionally heteroskedastic innovation processes
AB - In a recent paper Cavaliere et al. (2012) develop bootstrap implementations of the (pseudo-) likelihood ratio (PLR) co-integration rank test and associated sequential rank determination procedure of Johansen (1996). The bootstrap samples are constructed using the restricted parameter estimates of the underlying vector autoregressive (VAR) model which obtain under the reduced rank null hypothesis. They propose methods based on an independent and individual distributed (i.i.d.) bootstrap resampling scheme and establish the validity of their proposed bootstrap procedures in the context of a co-integrated VAR model with i.i.d. innovations. In this paper we investigate the properties of their bootstrap procedures, together with analogous procedures based on a wild bootstrap resampling scheme, when time-varying behavior is present in either the conditional or unconditional variance of the innovations. We show that the bootstrap PLR tests are asymptotically correctly sized and, moreover, that the probability that the associated bootstrap sequential procedures select a rank smaller than the true rank converges to zero. This result is shown to hold for both the i.i.d. and wild bootstrap variants under conditional heteroskedasticity but only for the latter under unconditional heteroskedasticity. Monte Carlo evidence is reported which suggests that the bootstrap approach of Cavaliere et al. (2012) significantly improves upon the finite sample performance of corresponding procedures based on either the asymptotic PLR test or an alternative bootstrap method (where the short run dynamics in the VAR model are estimated unrestrictedly) for a variety of conditionally and unconditionally heteroskedastic innovation processes
U2 - 10.1080/07474938.2013.825175
DO - 10.1080/07474938.2013.825175
M3 - Journal article
VL - 33
SP - 606
EP - 650
JO - Econometric Reviews
JF - Econometric Reviews
SN - 0747-4938
IS - 5–6
ER -
ID: 43957786